Concept Coop
Footballguy
SELL HIGH!
What do Matt Forte and Jahvid Best have in common? Monster games against the Eagles defense - a defense that has been traditionally stingy, at least in the eyes of the chum you need to feed them to.
Jahvid Best - I know that cutting him now is "selling low" (for the record, I was advocating this AFTER his big game) in comparison to what you could have gotten for him in September. But, in my mind, it is better to move him for what you paid, if not a bit more, while you can. The injury concerns are starting to mount, he is being outplayed by Mo Morris, and he has proven to me, at least, that he is not a 3-down-back in the NFL. I'll take it a step further: if he didn't score two "gimme" TDs in week one, his fantasy numbers would mirror his on field production: poor, with the exception of one game. Now, you will read a few responses to this suggesting that "it's too soon", "he is only a rookie" - trade him to owners like them. He still has a fancy name, went to a fancy school, plays in a fancy offense, next to a couple fancy weapons, and will be a fancy prize to the owner you dump him on. You could wait and hope he has another big game or two to start the season next year. But you risk DET investing in an "insurance policy" that could very well outplay Best, relegating him to the role he is best suited for.
Moves I would look to make:
Best for Spiller +: Spiller and Best are very close in talent. And contrary to popular belief, Best has not proven any more than Spiller.
Best for Moreno/Greene/Bradshaw.
Best for Wells: Both have injury concerns. Well's are more threatening, even. But if I am going to gamble on an injury risk, I want the guy capable of being top 10 when healthy.
Best for top 5 draft pick: There are 3 RBs in the coming draft that I feel will have better NFL careers than Best. There is also one elite WR and a good number that could be worth a top 5 rookie pick after the bowl games/measurements/testing etc.
Best For B. Marshall/S. Rice.
Matt Forte: He has just enough big games to keep him relevant in the fantasy world, and to hide the fact that he is not a very good running back. I have really wanted to like this guy as he does many things well, namely his ability to protect the QB and catch the ball out of the backfield. But he simply can't break tackles. Unlike Best, Forte is coming off a couple good outings, so the timing should not be questioned. Eventually, Chicago is going to find a better running back, and it might not even be on purpose. I think most teams in the NFL have a RB or two on their roster capable of besting Forte when it comes to moving the ball on the ground. How long will it take for Chicago to find one? As a Forte owner, I wouldn't want to be holding him when we find out.
Moves I would look to make:
Forte + WR1 for ADP, CJ, MJD, Foster or Charles: It is nearly impossible to get an elite RB without giving up an RB1 in return. Hopefully, owners in your league will look at Forte's numbers and think he is a long-term RB1.
What do Matt Forte and Jahvid Best have in common? Monster games against the Eagles defense - a defense that has been traditionally stingy, at least in the eyes of the chum you need to feed them to.
Jahvid Best - I know that cutting him now is "selling low" (for the record, I was advocating this AFTER his big game) in comparison to what you could have gotten for him in September. But, in my mind, it is better to move him for what you paid, if not a bit more, while you can. The injury concerns are starting to mount, he is being outplayed by Mo Morris, and he has proven to me, at least, that he is not a 3-down-back in the NFL. I'll take it a step further: if he didn't score two "gimme" TDs in week one, his fantasy numbers would mirror his on field production: poor, with the exception of one game. Now, you will read a few responses to this suggesting that "it's too soon", "he is only a rookie" - trade him to owners like them. He still has a fancy name, went to a fancy school, plays in a fancy offense, next to a couple fancy weapons, and will be a fancy prize to the owner you dump him on. You could wait and hope he has another big game or two to start the season next year. But you risk DET investing in an "insurance policy" that could very well outplay Best, relegating him to the role he is best suited for.
Moves I would look to make:
Best for Spiller +: Spiller and Best are very close in talent. And contrary to popular belief, Best has not proven any more than Spiller.
Best for Moreno/Greene/Bradshaw.
Best for Wells: Both have injury concerns. Well's are more threatening, even. But if I am going to gamble on an injury risk, I want the guy capable of being top 10 when healthy.
Best for top 5 draft pick: There are 3 RBs in the coming draft that I feel will have better NFL careers than Best. There is also one elite WR and a good number that could be worth a top 5 rookie pick after the bowl games/measurements/testing etc.
Best For B. Marshall/S. Rice.
Matt Forte: He has just enough big games to keep him relevant in the fantasy world, and to hide the fact that he is not a very good running back. I have really wanted to like this guy as he does many things well, namely his ability to protect the QB and catch the ball out of the backfield. But he simply can't break tackles. Unlike Best, Forte is coming off a couple good outings, so the timing should not be questioned. Eventually, Chicago is going to find a better running back, and it might not even be on purpose. I think most teams in the NFL have a RB or two on their roster capable of besting Forte when it comes to moving the ball on the ground. How long will it take for Chicago to find one? As a Forte owner, I wouldn't want to be holding him when we find out.
Moves I would look to make:
Forte + WR1 for ADP, CJ, MJD, Foster or Charles: It is nearly impossible to get an elite RB without giving up an RB1 in return. Hopefully, owners in your league will look at Forte's numbers and think he is a long-term RB1.
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I think Forte is one of those guys that is undervalued because of the perception he's only performing due to situation (like Grant and Addai - both of whom the replacements/fill-ins are worthless). To counter CC's claim that the 2nd RB on a lot of teams would beat him out, the 2nd RB on last year's Vikings has been largely unsuccessful. If you can turn him into Chris Johnson then heck yeah, but I don't think a lot of owners are selling Johnson (or Foster or MJD or Peterson) that easily, especially in a RB-heavy league as implied by your proposed trade.
I think Forte is one of those guys that is undervalued because of the perception he's only performing due to situation (like Grant and Addai - both of whom the replacements/fill-ins are worthless). To counter CC's claim that the 2nd RB on a lot of teams would beat him out, the 2nd RB on last year's Vikings has been largely unsuccessful. If you can turn him into Chris Johnson then heck yeah, but I don't think a lot of owners are selling Johnson (or Foster or MJD or Peterson) that easily, especially in a RB-heavy league as implied by your proposed trade.
As soon as you tell us why you kept Foster at RB19ish, when you knew he was elite back in September.More effective in the return from turf toe, better? The example I had in mind, was not a RB, to your point (TO). So I won't pretent to know what extent Best is suffering, which I never intended to do with my statement.
As soon as you tell us why you kept Foster at RB19ish, when you knew he was elite back in September.