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Dynasty Rankings (9 Viewers)

That's quite the dichotomy. Foster is on pace for 400+ touches and the coaches are on recording as saying that won't change. 400 touches gives him a great shot at being the #1 rb and an ff MVP, but it's also a sign to sell.

I think im a buyer, sure the touches are a concern but some rbs have come out the other end with their production intact but not their value. We've all been waiting for Turner yo go away, and while no one wants to pay for him, he keeps grinding good numbers.

 
'Concept Coop said:
'Dr. Octopus said:
'EBF said:
:yes: He might be the #1 sell in all of dynasty FF right now.
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especially if you hate winning.
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I think the "situation depending" tag is assumed. If I could get a major offer, say DMC/Forte/Charles + Harvin/Wallace (And I don't think that is out of the question), I would look to make that deal. Also, I would be happy to get ANY kind of value in addition to LeSean McCoy for him, if I was looking for a straight up deal. PPR, of course.
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Those deals do not seem very realistic at all. All of those RBs (with the exception of possibly Forte) are valued at about the same range as Foster already. No one is throwing in a Harvin or Wallace. McCoy was drafted ahead of Foster in a startup I did this offseason.
 
'Dr. Octopus said:
Some people seem way too obsessed with [declining] trade value to the point they "fail to see the forest for the trees".It isn't so easy to get fair value for guys like Calvin Johnson or Arian Foster without taking back quantity for your quality. People also fail to account for the lost production they are giving up in order not to get stuck with a 29 year old RB that has no trade value (2-3 years before he's even going to be 29). There comes a point when you need to worry about production and winning the season(s) taht you are in instead of obsessing with always having the maximum trade value on your roster.
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Speaking for myself, I am identifying assets whose market value is greater than their projected career value (from this point forward). Whether it is easy or even realistic to take advantage of that, is another discussion, which will vary greatly depending on league. I am no more saying "you should trade right now", than you are saying " you should never trade".
 
'EBF said:
Trade value and production are the same thing though because you can always convert trade value into instant help. If you trade Foster for Trent Richardson, Trent might not score as many points, but you will be able to trade him for just about anyone you want.
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Like Foster?I don't necessarily disagree that a Richardson for Foster trade wouldn't make sense for some teams - although teams that have Richardon aren't likely to make that trade anyway since they just "earned" the right to draft him.
 
'Dr. Octopus said:
'EBF said:
:yes: He might be the #1 sell in all of dynasty FF right now.
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especially if you hate winning.
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I guess I don't get this either. Foster is 26. I don't think its a stretch to say he could continue this run for 2.75 more years. i.e. be a top 3 RB while he is 26, 27 and 28. I just watched Frank Gore this past weekend, and thought he looked really good. The guy is 29, and has been through numerous knee surgeries. I guess the only guy I'd consider trading Foster for is Trent Richardson. That could very well be foolish as well, as Richardson could be mired with an awful surrounding cast for years. So unpack that #1 player to sell in all of dynasty right now for me.
 
'Dr. Octopus said:
'Concept Coop said:
'Dr. Octopus said:
'EBF said:
:yes: He might be the #1 sell in all of dynasty FF right now.
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especially if you hate winning.
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I think the "situation depending" tag is assumed. If I could get a major offer, say DMC/Forte/Charles + Harvin/Wallace (And I don't think that is out of the question), I would look to make that deal. Also, I would be happy to get ANY kind of value in addition to LeSean McCoy for him, if I was looking for a straight up deal. PPR, of course.
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Those deals do not seem very realistic at all. All of those RBs (with the exception of possibly Forte) are valued at about the same range as Foster already. No one is throwing in a Harvin or Wallace. McCoy was drafted ahead of Foster in a startup I did this offseason.
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McCoy is off to a very slow start, while Foster is the #1 scoring RB. DMC and Forte are clearly behind Foster - their ADP's were at least a round lower in startups, before their slow starts/injuries. Charles is debatable, but it is a deal I would look to make. If it is not realistic - I guess the deal will be quickly shot down.
 
'Kitrick Taylor said:
'Dr. Octopus said:
'EBF said:
:yes: He might be the #1 sell in all of dynasty FF right now.
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especially if you hate winning.
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I guess I don't get this either. Foster is 26. I don't think its a stretch to say he could continue this run for 2.75 more years. i.e. be a top 3 RB while he is 26, 27 and 28. I just watched Frank Gore this past weekend, and thought he looked really good. The guy is 29, and has been through numerous knee surgeries. I guess the only guy I'd consider trading Foster for is Trent Richardson. That could very well be foolish as well, as Richardson could be mired with an awful surrounding cast for years. So unpack that #1 player to sell in all of dynasty right now for me.
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Some people like "pretty" rosters with loads of potential (a/k/a "trade value"), some people like winning once in a while.I've always pretty much been an "anyone is tradeable for the right price" type of owner - but I don't see that the same as "I need to move the most valuable asset in fantasy football quickly before he loses any of that value". I understand the philosophy - but it's not always the best practice.
 
Who would want to buy McFadden? :X

As for Foster, part of my reasoning is that I don't really buy him as an elite NFL back. First year was phenomenal. Second not so good. This one even worse. He has rare receiving ability and should continue to accumulate nice stats for the next couple years, but I'm always scared of these guys who derive their value mainly from the situation. He is still a top 5-6 dynasty back for me because of his immediate production, but there might be 10-15 players across different positions in the NFL who I'd rather have on my FF team.

A lot depends on league format though. I play in some leagues where you are required to start 2 RBs, which really inflates the value of the position. I play in others where you only have to start 1 RB, which really decreases the value of the position. There might only be a few guys that I'd move Foster for in those RB-heavy leagues, but in the more balanced leagues there are lots of candidates. I would move him for Richardson straight up in any format though, and if Foster is widely perceived as a top 5 player, but really only has top 10-15 value then he's still a strong sell for me.

At the end of the day I just don't really believe that he's an elite NFL player. I think he's a good player in a great situation (a team and scheme that also made Ron Dayne and Steve Slaton look viable).

 
'Dr. Octopus said:
Some people like "pretty" rosters with loads of potential (a/k/a "trade value"), some people like winning once in a while.
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I don't think this is a fair statement to make. It creates an absolute that doesn't need to there. Neither EBF or myself has suggested compromising current championship chances. Everything we say here is in a vacuum without league specifics - and in depth specifics at that. Simply stating that we feel Foster's market value is above and beyond the production he will actually provide, isn't the as suggesting what you imply.
 
Perhaps this "trade Foster" conversation should be expanded to include the league rules as part of the discussion. I'm in a dynasty salary cap league ($100). I bought Foster for cheap before he broke out, and his current value is $30. That figure would have been more like $40 had Foster not been hurt for a few games in 2011.

There's no way I'm letting go of my best player at his peak for someone that COULD be great. McFadden? Richardson? Of course they could be great. Difference is, they haven't done it yet. I understand the strategy of moving a top player for a nice package in a dynasty league. I get it. But I don't think anyone's going to offer me a trade value commensurate for what Foster does for my team.

Most dynasty owners stock their teams with the strategy of some studs that are great now and some young players that could break out. So unless you've made some poor decisions, Foster owners could very well have guys like Spiller on their teams.

 
I think you have all lost your minds.

26 is not old. This guy runs well, catches passes, scores regularly, and plays behind a very good line for a team with a great defense...and he gets around 75% of his team's carries. His age is a pro, not a con. He is in his prime. I have always read on these boards that if you can get 3 more good years of production from a player, then they are a great dynasty asset. For Foster, that would mean that he has to still be producing in his age 28 season.

It shocks me that people are still questioning this guy's talent.

Give me the next 3 years of dominance over any reasonable package that anyone is going to offer. Unless I was out of the race this year and likely building again next year and someone offered me Trent Richardson for Foster, I am gonna stick with the best fantasy RB in the land.

 
'EBF said:
Who would want to buy McFadden? :X

As for Foster, part of my reasoning is that I don't really buy him as an elite NFL back. First year was phenomenal. Second not so good. This one even worse. He has rare receiving ability and should continue to accumulate nice stats for the next couple years, but I'm always scared of these guys who derive their value mainly from the situation. He is still a top 5-6 dynasty back for me because of his immediate production, but there might be 10-15 players across different positions in the NFL who I'd rather have on my FF team.

A lot depends on league format though. I play in some leagues where you are required to start 2 RBs, which really inflates the value of the position. I play in others where you only have to start 1 RB, which really decreases the value of the position. There might only be a few guys that I'd move Foster for in those RB-heavy leagues, but in the more balanced leagues there are lots of candidates. I would move him for Richardson straight up in any format though, and if Foster is widely perceived as a top 5 player, but really only has top 10-15 value then he's still a strong sell for me.

At the end of the day I just don't really believe that he's an elite NFL player. I think he's a good player in a great situation (a team and scheme that also made Ron Dayne and Steve Slaton look viable).
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This is the same team that showed Ron Dayne and Steve Slaton the door, and gave Foster 43.5 million over 5 years this past March. I have an embarrassment of riches in the dynasty league in which I have Foster. I could trade him for a WR and still start MJD and Charles. (must start 2 RB) I've worked on building this team for many years, and won a title with it last year. Very good chance to repeat again this year.

I'm still not sold on the idea of him being a sell though. RBs have short windows of production in relation to other positions. We have to accept that as fact. I think Foster has a very good chance to be a top 3 RB for the next 3 years. Look at Emmitt Smith as an example. I never thought he was the most talented RB around. Yet he took his situation, and produced monster numbers for years. I think Foster is similarly situated. Foster is the RB for what likely will end up being one of the best rushing team in the NFL again.

 
'EBF said:
Who would want to buy McFadden? :X

As for Foster, part of my reasoning is that I don't really buy him as an elite NFL back. First year was phenomenal. Second not so good. This one even worse. He has rare receiving ability and should continue to accumulate nice stats for the next couple years, but I'm always scared of these guys who derive their value mainly from the situation. He is still a top 5-6 dynasty back for me because of his immediate production, but there might be 10-15 players across different positions in the NFL who I'd rather have on my FF team.

A lot depends on league format though. I play in some leagues where you are required to start 2 RBs, which really inflates the value of the position. I play in others where you only have to start 1 RB, which really decreases the value of the position. There might only be a few guys that I'd move Foster for in those RB-heavy leagues, but in the more balanced leagues there are lots of candidates. I would move him for Richardson straight up in any format though, and if Foster is widely perceived as a top 5 player, but really only has top 10-15 value then he's still a strong sell for me.

At the end of the day I just don't really believe that he's an elite NFL player. I think he's a good player in a great situation (a team and scheme that also made Ron Dayne and Steve Slaton look viable).
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This is the same team that showed Ron Dayne and Steve Slaton the door, and gave Foster 43.5 million over 5 years this past March. I have an embarrassment of riches in the dynasty league in which I have Foster. I could trade him for a WR and still start MJD and Charles. (must start 2 RB) I've worked on building this team for many years, and won a title with it last year. Very good chance to repeat again this year.

I'm still not sold on the idea of him being a sell though. RBs have short windows of production in relation to other positions. We have to accept that as fact. I think Foster has a very good chance to be a top 3 RB for the next 3 years. Look at Emmitt Smith as an example. I never thought he was the most talented RB around. Yet he took his situation, and produced monster numbers for years. I think Foster is similarly situated. Foster is the RB for what likely will end up being one of the best rushing team in the NFL again.

 
'EBF said:
I would move him for Richardson straight up in any format though, and if Foster is widely perceived as a top 5 player, but really only has top 10-15 value then he's still a strong sell for me. At the end of the day I just don't really believe that he's an elite NFL player. I think he's a good player in a great situation (a team and scheme that also made Ron Dayne and Steve Slaton look viable).
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You've seen a lot more football than I have, and I always defer to your judgement of talent. But ultimately, does it matter that Richardson is a lot more talented than Foster? I say no. Are you contending that Cleveland is going to build a dominating offense that resembles Houston's? I assume you are not. So here we have a very talented RB in Richardson that plays on a mediocre team vs. a the less talented Foster playing with a monster run-blocking line. Honestly, I really don't care if/that Foster is less talented than Richardson. Because there is no indication that Richardson is in a position to best Foster's output.
 
Foster has a good chance to score right on par with him for the next 2-3 years, but Richardson has the better career outlook. He's a young guy. Only 21 years old. That's a big factor in his favor from a dynasty standpoint. Starting a team from scratch in a vacuum, I would much rather have him than a guy like Foster. Foster might have more value if you're convinced that the difference in ppg between the two can put you over the top this year.

Foster is RB2-RB5 in most of my leagues. Richardson about RB5-RB7. The difference isn't huge, and I think what we're seeing represents the floor of what a healthy Richardson will produce. The guy is a Peterson/Ricky/Edge/LT type of talent. Nowhere to go but up as Cleveland continues to add supporting pieces, assuming that Trent can stay healthy. My only concern with him is his knee problems, but they seem minor.

Richardson is the clear dynasty RB1 for me. You wait another year and you likely won't be able to move a Rice or Foster for him, though those guys offer a slight edge in production in the short term.

 
I feel like everyone must be talking about an owner who is 0-4 or maybe 1-3 selling Foster? Why would a 2-2 or better owner with a somewhat decent roster sell Foster? Why is going for the championship this year not as important as being "stuck" with Foster as a RB2/3 in 2014?

 
The other reason I'm not buying Foster is it would probably take my Richardson to do it, which like EBF detailed above I won't do since I see him as the #1 dyno player.

Only way I could see myself pursuing Foster is if I could get him for a #1 + Bradshaw + Andre Brown and I don't see the Foster owner even considering that.

To be able to sell someone there must be a willing buyer too, I think that'd be tough with Foster unless the Ben Tate owner has a certain team built. I don't and the way his is built he doesn't need to jump ship from Arian anyway.

 
'Plaid Boxer said:
I feel like everyone must be talking about an owner who is 0-4 or maybe 1-3 selling Foster? Why would a 2-2 or better owner with a somewhat decent roster sell Foster? Why is going for the championship this year not as important as being "stuck" with Foster as a RB2/3 in 2014?
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It is possible to move any player, and maintain your championship hopes. I don't think anybody is suggesting mailing it in.
 
'Concept Coop said:
'Plaid Boxer said:
I feel like everyone must be talking about an owner who is 0-4 or maybe 1-3 selling Foster? Why would a 2-2 or better owner with a somewhat decent roster sell Foster? Why is going for the championship this year not as important as being "stuck" with Foster as a RB2/3 in 2014?
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It is possible to move any player, and maintain your championship hopes. I don't think anybody is suggesting mailing it in.
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Can you give me an example of a player or players you'd get in return that would give you as good a chance to win your league this year as Foster would?
 
'wdcrob said:
'Concept Coop said:
'Plaid Boxer said:
I feel like everyone must be talking about an owner who is 0-4 or maybe 1-3 selling Foster? Why would a 2-2 or better owner with a somewhat decent roster sell Foster? Why is going for the championship this year not as important as being "stuck" with Foster as a RB2/3 in 2014?
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It is possible to move any player, and maintain your championship hopes. I don't think anybody is suggesting mailing it in.
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Can you give me an example of a player or players you'd get in return that would give you as good a chance to win your league this year as Foster would?
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If I had 2 stud QB's in the mold of a Rodgers-Luck combo and were short a RB and the Foster owner is rolling with a Vick-Bradford like combo while having a LeShoure/Reggie Bush type on the bench.
 
'EBF said:
Who would want to buy McFadden? :X
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This from the person who never liked DMC from when he was a rookie (low BMI you know) and then even after his breakthrough year in 2010 kept saying he still hadn't demonstrated that he was an "above average starting NFL RB" (which caused even Chris Wesseling, aka Fear&Loathing, to question EBF's analytical ability). Hardly a surprise that someone who has years of documented hate (for lack of a better word) in this forum for McFadden would now seem incredulous that anyone would want to buy him. But people should be made aware of this long history of antipathy which prevents any type of objective look at this player.
 
'wdcrob said:
Can you give me an example of a player or players you'd get in return that would give you as good a chance to win your league this year as Foster would?
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Alfred Morris is a great starting point, because he is producing on par with Foster, but doesn't have the name or track record. This year, at least, he is not a major step down from Foster. Yet, is value is likely half, or less, than Foster's. Adding another major piece, in addition to Morris, is a solid example. Morris + SpillerMorris + CruzMorris + Stafford for Foster + Filler QBMorris + Gronk/Graham for Foster + Lesser TE Morris is the first name that came to mind, but there are others. If you have two capable RBs behind Foster, Graham + is enough to keep you in the championship hunt. Gronk + too.
 
'squistion said:
'EBF said:
Who would want to buy McFadden? :X
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This from the person who never liked DMC from when he was a rookie (low BMI you know) and then even after his breakthrough year in 2010 kept saying he still hadn't demonstrated that he was an "above average starting NFL RB" (which caused even Chris Wesseling, aka Fear&Loathing, to question EBF's analytical ability). Hardly a surprise that someone who has years of documented hate (for lack of a better word) in this forum for McFadden would now seem incredulous that anyone would want to buy him. But people should be made aware of this long history of antipathy which prevents any type of objective look at this player.
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I know you're not directing this at me, but as someone else who was anti DMC and still hasn't completely bought in I'll give my take. He has incredible ability, there is no denying that, but his string of lower body injuries coupled with his body makeup (skinny from the waist down) was why I never pursued him in dyno's. I dialed him up in redrafts last year because he had a quality cuff, but that's the only time I have - just don't trust him to stay intact.I'm wondering if all those injuries have had an effect on him given his 1/4 season numbers. Only watched game 1 and prefer to let my eyes do the talking, I didn't see anything concerning in that game but I didn't see any wow either.
 
'EBF said:
Foster has a good chance to score right on par with him for the next 2-3 years, but Richardson has the better career outlook. He's a young guy. Only 21 years old. That's a big factor in his favor from a dynasty standpoint. Starting a team from scratch in a vacuum, I would much rather have him than a guy like Foster. Foster might have more value if you're convinced that the difference in ppg between the two can put you over the top this year.

Foster is RB2-RB5 in most of my leagues. Richardson about RB5-RB7. The difference isn't huge, and I think what we're seeing represents the floor of what a healthy Richardson will produce. The guy is a Peterson/Ricky/Edge/LT type of talent. Nowhere to go but up as Cleveland continues to add supporting pieces, assuming that Trent can stay healthy. My only concern with him is his knee problems, but they seem minor.

Richardson is the clear dynasty RB1 for me. You wait another year and you likely won't be able to move a Rice or Foster for him, though those guys offer a slight edge in production in the short term.
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There is a HUGE difference between reasonable expectations for Foster and Richardson for the forseeable future. Richardson has played well, but there isn't much chance he continues to score a TD per game over an extended period barring a major turnaround in Cleveland, which ain't comin any time soon. The current regime is totally lame duck, and they'll be starting from scratch yet again this offseason. Foster WILL win people leagues right now for the next few years. Richardson MIGHT if things go well in Cleveland.
 
Yeah you guys go ahead and outsmart yourselves on a guy like Foster... sell. go ahead chase the next great back. Good luck with that. Short of getting clear, off the chart value for Foster there is no way in h3ll im shipping him off on the latest buzz about getting 10,000 carries or whatever. Yeah he's on pace to get 450 carries and yeah coach says THIS WEEK that will continue... Pfffft. He has couple seasons of wear on his tires and a light college odometer... SELL SELL!!!

Chasing the latest, greatest and trying to be the smartest guy in the room by trading an uber stud in his prime is not a shark move, it's a monster ooopppps you could regret for years. IMHO.

 
'Concept Coop said:
'wdcrob said:
Can you give me an example of a player or players you'd get in return that would give you as good a chance to win your league this year as Foster would?
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Alfred Morris is a great starting point, because he is producing on par with Foster, but doesn't have the name or track record. This year, at least, he is not a major step down from Foster. Yet, is value is likely half, or less, than Foster's. Adding another major piece, in addition to Morris, is a solid example. Morris + SpillerMorris + CruzMorris + Stafford for Foster + Filler QBMorris + Gronk/Graham for Foster + Lesser TE Morris is the first name that came to mind, but there are others. If you have two capable RBs behind Foster, Graham + is enough to keep you in the championship hunt. Gronk + too.
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Alfred Morris is not a reason I would trade or trade for Foster, nowhere near the thought process imho.
 
'Coeur de Lion said:
'EBF said:
Foster has a good chance to score right on par with him for the next 2-3 years, but Richardson has the better career outlook. He's a young guy. Only 21 years old. That's a big factor in his favor from a dynasty standpoint. Starting a team from scratch in a vacuum, I would much rather have him than a guy like Foster. Foster might have more value if you're convinced that the difference in ppg between the two can put you over the top this year.

Foster is RB2-RB5 in most of my leagues. Richardson about RB5-RB7. The difference isn't huge, and I think what we're seeing represents the floor of what a healthy Richardson will produce. The guy is a Peterson/Ricky/Edge/LT type of talent. Nowhere to go but up as Cleveland continues to add supporting pieces, assuming that Trent can stay healthy. My only concern with him is his knee problems, but they seem minor.

Richardson is the clear dynasty RB1 for me. You wait another year and you likely won't be able to move a Rice or Foster for him, though those guys offer a slight edge in production in the short term.
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There is a HUGE difference between reasonable expectations for Foster and Richardson for the forseeable future. Richardson has played well, but there isn't much chance he continues to score a TD per game over an extended period barring a major turnaround in Cleveland, which ain't comin any time soon. The current regime is totally lame duck, and they'll be starting from scratch yet again this offseason. Foster WILL win people leagues right now for the next few years. Richardson MIGHT if things go well in Cleveland.
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Richardson is the foundation of this franchise even after whatever changes are made at the top, the new guys whoever they are will build around him. And there's no reason to believe Richardson can't maintain his TD/game rate. He is that offense, so in the red zone his number will be called.
 
'Concept Coop said:
'Dr. Octopus said:
Some people like "pretty" rosters with loads of potential (a/k/a "trade value"), some people like winning once in a while.
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I don't think this is a fair statement to make. It creates an absolute that doesn't need to there. Neither EBF or myself has suggested compromising current championship chances. Everything we say here is in a vacuum without league specifics - and in depth specifics at that. Simply stating that we feel Foster's market value is above and beyond the production he will actually provide, isn't the as suggesting what you imply.
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I wasn't directing it towards you specifically. It just seems that the age RBs become worthless in dynasty keeps going down further and further. 26 is now the age that one needs to look to move a guy so that he doesn't get stuck holding the bag?It's to the point where you're better off keeping a guy through his productive years (while benefitting from that production) and then seeing if you could get anything towards the end.
 
'Dirk Digler said:
Yeah you guys go ahead and outsmart yourselves on a guy like Foster... sell. go ahead chase the next great back. Good luck with that. Short of getting clear, off the chart value for Foster there is no way in h3ll im shipping him off on the latest buzz about getting 10,000 carries or whatever. Yeah he's on pace to get 450 carries and yeah coach says THIS WEEK that will continue... Pfffft. He has couple seasons of wear on his tires and a light college odometer... SELL SELL!!! Chasing the latest, greatest and trying to be the smartest guy in the room by trading an uber stud in his prime is not a shark move, it's a monster ooopppps you could regret for years. IMHO.
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If you traded Chris Johnson for Arian Foster and WR1, mid way through Foster's first break out, you would have gotten laughed at. I was laughed at for taking McCoy over Peterson and Chirs Johnson in a startup last year. McCoy finished as the #2 RB at 23 years old. I am not saying it always works out, but inviting absolutes is never a good thing. It is self limiting. There is no golden rule, one way or the other. Every deal should be looked at as it's own set of potential and likely outcomes.
 
'MAC_32 said:
'Concept Coop said:
'wdcrob said:
Can you give me an example of a player or players you'd get in return that would give you as good a chance to win your league this year as Foster would?
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Alfred Morris is a great starting point, because he is producing on par with Foster, but doesn't have the name or track record. This year, at least, he is not a major step down from Foster. Yet, is value is likely half, or less, than Foster's. Adding another major piece, in addition to Morris, is a solid example. Morris + SpillerMorris + CruzMorris + Stafford for Foster + Filler QBMorris + Gronk/Graham for Foster + Lesser TE Morris is the first name that came to mind, but there are others. If you have two capable RBs behind Foster, Graham + is enough to keep you in the championship hunt. Gronk + too.
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Alfred Morris is not a reason I would trade or trade for Foster, nowhere near the thought process imho.
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Which is fine. Just a few years ago, Arian Foster was Alfred Morris. Use your own valuations of a player. If Morris keeps this up for 3 years, Morris + Cruz, Stafford, Graham, Gronk will be a steal. For the record, I am not saying make those deals. But they are examples of deals in which you can move Foster, and still not take a major hit to your championship hopes.
 
'MAC_32 said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
'EBF said:
Foster has a good chance to score right on par with him for the next 2-3 years, but Richardson has the better career outlook. He's a young guy. Only 21 years old. That's a big factor in his favor from a dynasty standpoint. Starting a team from scratch in a vacuum, I would much rather have him than a guy like Foster. Foster might have more value if you're convinced that the difference in ppg between the two can put you over the top this year.

Foster is RB2-RB5 in most of my leagues. Richardson about RB5-RB7. The difference isn't huge, and I think what we're seeing represents the floor of what a healthy Richardson will produce. The guy is a Peterson/Ricky/Edge/LT type of talent. Nowhere to go but up as Cleveland continues to add supporting pieces, assuming that Trent can stay healthy. My only concern with him is his knee problems, but they seem minor.

Richardson is the clear dynasty RB1 for me. You wait another year and you likely won't be able to move a Rice or Foster for him, though those guys offer a slight edge in production in the short term.
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There is a HUGE difference between reasonable expectations for Foster and Richardson for the forseeable future. Richardson has played well, but there isn't much chance he continues to score a TD per game over an extended period barring a major turnaround in Cleveland, which ain't comin any time soon. The current regime is totally lame duck, and they'll be starting from scratch yet again this offseason. Foster WILL win people leagues right now for the next few years. Richardson MIGHT if things go well in Cleveland.
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Richardson is the foundation of this franchise even after whatever changes are made at the top, the new guys whoever they are will build around him. And there's no reason to believe Richardson can't maintain his TD/game rate. He is that offense, so in the red zone his number will be called.
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Of course he'll be featured regardless, but he's not going to be a 16 TD / year player if the offense continues to score 20 - 25 total TDs per year. Nor is he going to be a 2000+ total yard threat at sub 4 YPC facing 8 in the box and running behind a line with only 2 NFL starting level players.
 
'Concept Coop said:
'MAC_32 said:
'Concept Coop said:
'wdcrob said:
Can you give me an example of a player or players you'd get in return that would give you as good a chance to win your league this year as Foster would?
Click to expand...
Alfred Morris is a great starting point, because he is producing on par with Foster, but doesn't have the name or track record. This year, at least, he is not a major step down from Foster. Yet, is value is likely half, or less, than Foster's. Adding another major piece, in addition to Morris, is a solid example. Morris + SpillerMorris + CruzMorris + Stafford for Foster + Filler QBMorris + Gronk/Graham for Foster + Lesser TE Morris is the first name that came to mind, but there are others. If you have two capable RBs behind Foster, Graham + is enough to keep you in the championship hunt. Gronk + too.
Click to expand...
Alfred Morris is not a reason I would trade or trade for Foster, nowhere near the thought process imho.
Click to expand...
Which is fine. Just a few years ago, Arian Foster was Alfred Morris. Use your own valuations of a player. If Morris keeps this up for 3 years, Morris + Cruz, Stafford, Graham, Gronk will be a steal. For the record, I am not saying make those deals. But they are examples of deals in which you can move Foster, and still not take a major hit to your championship hopes.
Click to expand...
For every Arian Foster there are 19 Jerome Harrison's.
 
'Coeur de Lion said:
'MAC_32 said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
'EBF said:
Foster has a good chance to score right on par with him for the next 2-3 years, but Richardson has the better career outlook. He's a young guy. Only 21 years old. That's a big factor in his favor from a dynasty standpoint. Starting a team from scratch in a vacuum, I would much rather have him than a guy like Foster. Foster might have more value if you're convinced that the difference in ppg between the two can put you over the top this year.

Foster is RB2-RB5 in most of my leagues. Richardson about RB5-RB7. The difference isn't huge, and I think what we're seeing represents the floor of what a healthy Richardson will produce. The guy is a Peterson/Ricky/Edge/LT type of talent. Nowhere to go but up as Cleveland continues to add supporting pieces, assuming that Trent can stay healthy. My only concern with him is his knee problems, but they seem minor.

Richardson is the clear dynasty RB1 for me. You wait another year and you likely won't be able to move a Rice or Foster for him, though those guys offer a slight edge in production in the short term.
Click to expand...
There is a HUGE difference between reasonable expectations for Foster and Richardson for the forseeable future. Richardson has played well, but there isn't much chance he continues to score a TD per game over an extended period barring a major turnaround in Cleveland, which ain't comin any time soon. The current regime is totally lame duck, and they'll be starting from scratch yet again this offseason. Foster WILL win people leagues right now for the next few years. Richardson MIGHT if things go well in Cleveland.
Click to expand...
Richardson is the foundation of this franchise even after whatever changes are made at the top, the new guys whoever they are will build around him. And there's no reason to believe Richardson can't maintain his TD/game rate. He is that offense, so in the red zone his number will be called.
Click to expand...
Of course he'll be featured regardless, but he's not going to be a 16 TD / year player if the offense continues to score 20 - 25 total TDs per year. Nor is he going to be a 2000+ total yard threat at sub 4 YPC facing 8 in the box and running behind a line with only 2 NFL starting level players.
Click to expand...
His YPC will go up once our idiot coach is fired and the new guy comes in and gives him 20-25 carries/game. His style provides the most value once he's killed the defenses will and our idiot coach gives up on the run game before we get to that point. Given 22 carries/game he's a 90-110 yard player, his last 5-10 will be closer to 6 ypc instead of 3.And it would not surprise me at all if he scores more than half of our TD's this year, there are not other weapons and Richardson has shown that even with defenses scheming against him once in deep I can score anyway.

 
'MAC_32 said:
For every Arian Foster there are 19 Jerome Harrison's.
Click to expand...
You determine what Morris is worth, what you think he will become, and how likely it is. If you don't value him top 15, don't treat him as such. In non-PPR formats, I do value Morris top 15, and would accept a deal for Morris + another MAJOR piece for Foster. Morris + Gronk/Graham/Julio/Green/Newton/RG3 are auto accepts for me. Replace those guys with Cruz/Fitz/Spiller/McFadden/Matthews and I have to think about it.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
'MAC_32 said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
'MAC_32 said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
'EBF said:
Foster has a good chance to score right on par with him for the next 2-3 years, but Richardson has the better career outlook. He's a young guy. Only 21 years old. That's a big factor in his favor from a dynasty standpoint. Starting a team from scratch in a vacuum, I would much rather have him than a guy like Foster. Foster might have more value if you're convinced that the difference in ppg between the two can put you over the top this year.

Foster is RB2-RB5 in most of my leagues. Richardson about RB5-RB7. The difference isn't huge, and I think what we're seeing represents the floor of what a healthy Richardson will produce. The guy is a Peterson/Ricky/Edge/LT type of talent. Nowhere to go but up as Cleveland continues to add supporting pieces, assuming that Trent can stay healthy. My only concern with him is his knee problems, but they seem minor.

Richardson is the clear dynasty RB1 for me. You wait another year and you likely won't be able to move a Rice or Foster for him, though those guys offer a slight edge in production in the short term.
Click to expand...
There is a HUGE difference between reasonable expectations for Foster and Richardson for the forseeable future. Richardson has played well, but there isn't much chance he continues to score a TD per game over an extended period barring a major turnaround in Cleveland, which ain't comin any time soon. The current regime is totally lame duck, and they'll be starting from scratch yet again this offseason. Foster WILL win people leagues right now for the next few years. Richardson MIGHT if things go well in Cleveland.
Click to expand...
Richardson is the foundation of this franchise even after whatever changes are made at the top, the new guys whoever they are will build around him. And there's no reason to believe Richardson can't maintain his TD/game rate. He is that offense, so in the red zone his number will be called.
Click to expand...
Of course he'll be featured regardless, but he's not going to be a 16 TD / year player if the offense continues to score 20 - 25 total TDs per year. Nor is he going to be a 2000+ total yard threat at sub 4 YPC facing 8 in the box and running behind a line with only 2 NFL starting level players.
Click to expand...
His YPC will go up once our idiot coach is fired and the new guy comes in and gives him 20-25 carries/game. His style provides the most value once he's killed the defenses will and our idiot coach gives up on the run game before we get to that point. Given 22 carries/game he's a 90-110 yard player, his last 5-10 will be closer to 6 ypc instead of 3.And it would not surprise me at all if he scores more than half of our TD's this year, there are not other weapons and Richardson has shown that even with defenses scheming against him once in deep I can score anyway.
Click to expand...
Even if the new front office / coaching staff are top shelf (which, given the history of the franchise, is a massive if) they are multiple draft / FA classes away from even mediocrity offensively, IMO, much less being a really good offense that can produce a 2000 YFS and / or 20 TD true difference making fantasy RB1.
 
'Concept Coop said:
'MAC_32 said:
For every Arian Foster there are 19 Jerome Harrison's.
Click to expand...
You determine what Morris is worth, what you think he will become, and how likely it is. If you don't value him top 15, don't treat him as such. In non-PPR formats, I do value Morris top 15, and would accept a deal for Morris + another MAJOR piece for Foster. Morris + Gronk/Graham/Julio/Green are auto accepts for me. Replace those guys with Cruz/Fitz/Spiller/McFadden/Matthews and I have to think about it.
Click to expand...
Fair enough - different strokes for different folks. I put zero stock in Morris' longevity due to his coach, I believe his scheme with the right QB can make any RB successful. It just so happens that this season Morris' competition has gotten hurt, hasn't recovered from injury, or just sucked - so the job is his (for now). I'd only make a move for Morris if it were cases like I have a gaping RB hole and the Morris owner is in sell mode so I toss a 3rd rounder out there OR I've given up on a prospect (i.e. Jon Baldwin) to a team already deep with RB's and they do an even swap because they're buying a bounce back from a guy like Baldwin.
 
'Coeur de Lion said:
'MAC_32 said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
'MAC_32 said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
'EBF said:
Foster has a good chance to score right on par with him for the next 2-3 years, but Richardson has the better career outlook. He's a young guy. Only 21 years old. That's a big factor in his favor from a dynasty standpoint. Starting a team from scratch in a vacuum, I would much rather have him than a guy like Foster. Foster might have more value if you're convinced that the difference in ppg between the two can put you over the top this year.

Foster is RB2-RB5 in most of my leagues. Richardson about RB5-RB7. The difference isn't huge, and I think what we're seeing represents the floor of what a healthy Richardson will produce. The guy is a Peterson/Ricky/Edge/LT type of talent. Nowhere to go but up as Cleveland continues to add supporting pieces, assuming that Trent can stay healthy. My only concern with him is his knee problems, but they seem minor.

Richardson is the clear dynasty RB1 for me. You wait another year and you likely won't be able to move a Rice or Foster for him, though those guys offer a slight edge in production in the short term.
Click to expand...
There is a HUGE difference between reasonable expectations for Foster and Richardson for the forseeable future. Richardson has played well, but there isn't much chance he continues to score a TD per game over an extended period barring a major turnaround in Cleveland, which ain't comin any time soon. The current regime is totally lame duck, and they'll be starting from scratch yet again this offseason. Foster WILL win people leagues right now for the next few years. Richardson MIGHT if things go well in Cleveland.
Click to expand...
Richardson is the foundation of this franchise even after whatever changes are made at the top, the new guys whoever they are will build around him. And there's no reason to believe Richardson can't maintain his TD/game rate. He is that offense, so in the red zone his number will be called.
Click to expand...
Of course he'll be featured regardless, but he's not going to be a 16 TD / year player if the offense continues to score 20 - 25 total TDs per year. Nor is he going to be a 2000+ total yard threat at sub 4 YPC facing 8 in the box and running behind a line with only 2 NFL starting level players.
Click to expand...
His YPC will go up once our idiot coach is fired and the new guy comes in and gives him 20-25 carries/game. His style provides the most value once he's killed the defenses will and our idiot coach gives up on the run game before we get to that point. Given 22 carries/game he's a 90-110 yard player, his last 5-10 will be closer to 6 ypc instead of 3.And it would not surprise me at all if he scores more than half of our TD's this year, there are not other weapons and Richardson has shown that even with defenses scheming against him once in deep I can score anyway.
Click to expand...
Even if the new front office / coaching staff are top shelf (which, given the history of the franchise, is a massive if) they are multiple draft / FA classes away from even mediocrity offensively, IMO, much less being a really good offense that can produce a 2000 YFS and / or 20 TD true difference making fantasy RB1.
Click to expand...
Disagree, I think Geno Smith may be able to solve everything, and quickly. Worst case would be our WR corps being so awful that we have to wait until 2014 and pick up a Marquise Lee or Sammy Watkins type before he becomes elite. In the meantime you can still expect solid RB1 numbers. Not 2000 yards and 20 TD's, but 1500 yards and 15 TD's? I see it.
 
'MAC_32 said:
Fair enough - different strokes for different folks. I put zero stock in Morris' longevity due to his coach, I believe his scheme with the right QB can make any RB successful. It just so happens that this season Morris' competition has gotten hurt, hasn't recovered from injury, or just sucked - so the job is his (for now). I'd only make a move for Morris if it were cases like I have a gaping RB hole and the Morris owner is in sell mode so I toss a 3rd rounder out there OR I've given up on a prospect (i.e. Jon Baldwin) to a team already deep with RB's and they do an even swap because they're buying a bounce back from a guy like Baldwin.
Click to expand...
A 3rd rounder? His 4 game stretch has already proven more valuable than a 3rd rounder, assuming he never played another game. It is not wise to dismiss a guy completely due to coach or system. You would have missed out on Terrell Davis, Arian Foster, Priest Holmes, Clinton Portis, among others.All Morris needs to do is hold onto the job. He has done very well, and at least for this season, there is no chance he loses it, save injury, IMO. Which means he will be a guy coming of a RB1 season, in his early 20s, in an ideal situation. That alone is worth top 15 dynasty back value.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
'Concept Coop said:
'wdcrob said:
Can you give me an example of a player or players you'd get in return that would give you as good a chance to win your league this year as Foster would?
Click to expand...
Alfred Morris is a great starting point, because he is producing on par with Foster, but doesn't have the name or track record. This year, at least, he is not a major step down from Foster. Yet, is value is likely half, or less, than Foster's. Adding another major piece, in addition to Morris, is a solid example. Morris + SpillerMorris + CruzMorris + Stafford for Foster + Filler QBMorris + Gronk/Graham for Foster + Lesser TE Morris is the first name that came to mind, but there are others. If you have two capable RBs behind Foster, Graham + is enough to keep you in the championship hunt. Gronk + too.
Click to expand...
With all due respect, I think trading Foster away in any of these deals would be a terrible move. Furthermore, you are ignoring in the first two deals that you are really giving up Foster and another player, since you are taking two players in return. I guess this varies by league, but I don't tend to carry players on my roster that do not have value, so I'd be giving up more than just the value of Foster.
 
'Concept Coop said:
'MAC_32 said:
Fair enough - different strokes for different folks. I put zero stock in Morris' longevity due to his coach, I believe his scheme with the right QB can make any RB successful. It just so happens that this season Morris' competition has gotten hurt, hasn't recovered from injury, or just sucked - so the job is his (for now). I'd only make a move for Morris if it were cases like I have a gaping RB hole and the Morris owner is in sell mode so I toss a 3rd rounder out there OR I've given up on a prospect (i.e. Jon Baldwin) to a team already deep with RB's and they do an even swap because they're buying a bounce back from a guy like Baldwin.
Click to expand...
A 3rd rounder? His 4 game stretch has already proven more valuable than a 3rd rounder, assuming he never played another game. It is not wise to dismiss a guy completely due to coach or system. You would have missed out on Terrell Davis, Arian Foster, Priest Holmes, Clinton Portis, among others.
Click to expand...
I also would have missed on the dozens of Denver and Washington backs that had 1-4 good games then, nothing.
 
'MAC_32 said:
'Concept Coop said:
'wdcrob said:
Can you give me an example of a player or players you'd get in return that would give you as good a chance to win your league this year as Foster would?
Click to expand...
Alfred Morris is a great starting point, because he is producing on par with Foster, but doesn't have the name or track record. This year, at least, he is not a major step down from Foster. Yet, is value is likely half, or less, than Foster's. Adding another major piece, in addition to Morris, is a solid example. Morris + SpillerMorris + CruzMorris + Stafford for Foster + Filler QBMorris + Gronk/Graham for Foster + Lesser TE Morris is the first name that came to mind, but there are others. If you have two capable RBs behind Foster, Graham + is enough to keep you in the championship hunt. Gronk + too.
Click to expand...
Alfred Morris is not a reason I would trade or trade for Foster, nowhere near the thought process imho.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
'Just Win Baby said:
'Concept Coop said:
'wdcrob said:
Can you give me an example of a player or players you'd get in return that would give you as good a chance to win your league this year as Foster would?
Click to expand...
Alfred Morris is a great starting point, because he is producing on par with Foster, but doesn't have the name or track record. This year, at least, he is not a major step down from Foster. Yet, is value is likely half, or less, than Foster's. Adding another major piece, in addition to Morris, is a solid example. Morris + SpillerMorris + CruzMorris + Stafford for Foster + Filler QBMorris + Gronk/Graham for Foster + Lesser TE Morris is the first name that came to mind, but there are others. If you have two capable RBs behind Foster, Graham + is enough to keep you in the championship hunt. Gronk + too.
Click to expand...
With all due respect, I think trading Foster away in any of these deals would be a terrible move. Furthermore, you are ignoring in the first two deals that you are really giving up Foster and another player, since you are taking two players in return. I guess this varies by league, but I don't tend to carry players on my roster that do not have value, so I'd be giving up more than just the value of Foster.
Click to expand...
Dynasy rosters are usually very big. Call it Foster and Taiwan Jones or Chris Ivory. And again - I have listed the deals that I would accept for Foster above. These deals are simply examples of deals you could make and stay in contention. Morris + Julio/Green/Newton/RG3/Graham/Gronk are auto accepts for me.
 
'MAC_32 said:
I also would have missed on the dozens of Denver and Washington backs that had 1-4 good games then, nothing.
Click to expand...
I am confused here - do those dozens have negative value? How do did you value Foster after his first season? What in addition to a future 3rd would you have given for him?
 
'MAC_32 said:
'Concept Coop said:
'MAC_32 said:
Fair enough - different strokes for different folks. I put zero stock in Morris' longevity due to his coach, I believe his scheme with the right QB can make any RB successful. It just so happens that this season Morris' competition has gotten hurt, hasn't recovered from injury, or just sucked - so the job is his (for now). I'd only make a move for Morris if it were cases like I have a gaping RB hole and the Morris owner is in sell mode so I toss a 3rd rounder out there OR I've given up on a prospect (i.e. Jon Baldwin) to a team already deep with RB's and they do an even swap because they're buying a bounce back from a guy like Baldwin.
Click to expand...
A 3rd rounder? His 4 game stretch has already proven more valuable than a 3rd rounder, assuming he never played another game. It is not wise to dismiss a guy completely due to coach or system. You would have missed out on Terrell Davis, Arian Foster, Priest Holmes, Clinton Portis, among others.
Click to expand...
I also would have missed on the dozens of Denver and Washington backs that had 1-4 good games then, nothing.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:First time Morris has a critical fumble there will be someone else in there looking equally tempting to the inexperienced eye, even if it's a guy Shanahan signs off of the street.BTW, dismissing a guy totally <> saying he isn't a reason to trade the overall best player in FF.
 
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