Dynasty Rankings (10 Viewers)

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

az_prof said:

Edwards is now developing into an average QB

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Average?He's 2nd in the AFC in QB rating and 3rd in yards per attempt. His team is 5-1. I'd say he looks a little better than average.

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EBF, are you talking NFL QB or fantasy QB? As an NFL QB, as of today he looks much better than average, although I doubt he will sustain his current performance through the entire season, and will probably slide back to the pack. As a fantasy QB, he has been average at best - his best ranking in my leagues as of now is 19th.

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I was talking as an NFL QB, but I do like his long term FF outlook. As we've seen with Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs. Edwards is among the best passers in the league in terms of QB rating and yards per attempt. When you toss out the game where he got hurt, his FF ppg average places him just outside the top 12 in most of my leagues. So he's already a fringe QB1 in the first half of his second season as a starter. His stats don't look similar to Aikman's at the same stage of his career. Edwards is averaging 8 yards per throw with a 70% completion percentage, a 98.8 QB rating, and a 2.5:1 TD to INT ratio. In Aikman's second season as a starter he averaged 6.5 yards per throw with a 56.6% completion percentage, a 66.6 QB rating, and a 0.6:1 TD to INT ratio. Aikman didn't put up numbers on par with Trent's until his 5th season in the league. IMO Aikman was an average game manager QB who had the good fortune of being on the right team at the right time. I think he was more of a Pennington type whereas I think Edwards is closer to guys like Hasselbeck and Brady.

EBF said:

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

az_prof said:

Edwards is now developing into an average QB

Click to expand...

Average?He's 2nd in the AFC in QB rating and 3rd in yards per attempt. His team is 5-1. I'd say he looks a little better than average.

Click to expand...

EBF, are you talking NFL QB or fantasy QB? As an NFL QB, as of today he looks much better than average, although I doubt he will sustain his current performance through the entire season, and will probably slide back to the pack. As a fantasy QB, he has been average at best - his best ranking in my leagues as of now is 19th.

Click to expand...

I was talking as an NFL QB, but I do like his long term FF outlook. As we've seen with Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs. Edwards is among the best passers in the league in terms of QB rating and yards per attempt. When you toss out the game where he got hurt, his FF ppg average places him just outside the top 12 in most of my leagues. So he's already a fringe QB1 in the first half of his second season as a starter. His stats don't look similar to Aikman's at the same stage of his career. Edwards is averaging 8 yards per throw with a 70% completion percentage, a 98.8 QB rating, and a 2.5:1 TD to INT ratio. In Aikman's second season as a starter he averaged 6.5 yards per throw with a 56.6% completion percentage, a 66.6 QB rating, and a 0.6:1 TD to INT ratio. Aikman didn't put up numbers on par with Trent's until his 5th season in the league. IMO Aikman was an average game manager QB who had the good fortune of being on the right team at the right time. I think he was more of a Pennington type whereas I think Edwards is closer to guys like Hasselbeck and Brady.

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Maybe it's just me, but you seem to be reading an awful lot into a 5+ game stretch, especially since his schedule over that span has been easier than average. Just last season, he was at 56%, 6.1 ypa, and a 7 TDs/8 interceptions ratio over 10 games. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain this performance the rest of the season... I doubt it.

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

az_prof said:

Edwards is now developing into an average QB

Click to expand...

Average?He's 2nd in the AFC in QB rating and 3rd in yards per attempt. His team is 5-1. I'd say he looks a little better than average.

Click to expand...

EBF, are you talking NFL QB or fantasy QB? As an NFL QB, as of today he looks much better than average, although I doubt he will sustain his current performance through the entire season, and will probably slide back to the pack. As a fantasy QB, he has been average at best - his best ranking in my leagues as of now is 19th.

Click to expand...

I was talking as an NFL QB, but I do like his long term FF outlook. As we've seen with Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs.

Edwards is among the best passers in the league in terms of QB rating and yards per attempt. When you toss out the game where he got hurt, his FF ppg average places him just outside the top 12 in most of my leagues. So he's already a fringe QB1 in the first half of his second season as a starter.

His stats don't look similar to Aikman's at the same stage of his career. Edwards is averaging 8 yards per throw with a 70% completion percentage, a 98.8 QB rating, and a 2.5:1 TD to INT ratio. In Aikman's second season as a starter he averaged 6.5 yards per throw with a 56.6% completion percentage, a 66.6 QB rating, and a 0.6:1 TD to INT ratio.

Aikman didn't put up numbers on par with Trent's until his 5th season in the league. IMO Aikman was an average game manager QB who had the good fortune of being on the right team at the right time. I think he was more of a Pennington type whereas I think Edwards is closer to guys like Hasselbeck and Brady.

Click to expand...

Maybe it's just me, but you seem to be reading an awful lot into a 5+ game stretch, especially since his schedule over that span has been easier than average. Just last season, he was at 56%, 6.1 ypa, and a 7 TDs/8 interceptions ratio over 10 games. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain this performance the rest of the season... I doubt it.

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Why?

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

az_prof said:

Edwards is now developing into an average QB

Click to expand...

Average?He's 2nd in the AFC in QB rating and 3rd in yards per attempt. His team is 5-1. I'd say he looks a little better than average.

Click to expand...

EBF, are you talking NFL QB or fantasy QB? As an NFL QB, as of today he looks much better than average, although I doubt he will sustain his current performance through the entire season, and will probably slide back to the pack. As a fantasy QB, he has been average at best - his best ranking in my leagues as of now is 19th.

Click to expand...

I was talking as an NFL QB, but I do like his long term FF outlook. As we've seen with Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs. Edwards is among the best passers in the league in terms of QB rating and yards per attempt. When you toss out the game where he got hurt, his FF ppg average places him just outside the top 12 in most of my leagues. So he's already a fringe QB1 in the first half of his second season as a starter. His stats don't look similar to Aikman's at the same stage of his career. Edwards is averaging 8 yards per throw with a 70% completion percentage, a 98.8 QB rating, and a 2.5:1 TD to INT ratio. In Aikman's second season as a starter he averaged 6.5 yards per throw with a 56.6% completion percentage, a 66.6 QB rating, and a 0.6:1 TD to INT ratio. Aikman didn't put up numbers on par with Trent's until his 5th season in the league. IMO Aikman was an average game manager QB who had the good fortune of being on the right team at the right time. I think he was more of a Pennington type whereas I think Edwards is closer to guys like Hasselbeck and Brady.

Click to expand...

Maybe it's just me, but you seem to be reading an awful lot into a 5+ game stretch, especially since his schedule over that span has been easier than average. Just last season, he was at 56%, 6.1 ypa, and a 7 TDs/8 interceptions ratio over 10 games. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain this performance the rest of the season... I doubt it.

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Well when others are reading into his stats that he is Aikman, why can't EBF read into them that he is Hbeck or Brady?I think he looks quite good, and most likely exactly what EBF thinks he is.

valhallan said:

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

az_prof said:

Edwards is now developing into an average QB

Click to expand...

Average?He's 2nd in the AFC in QB rating and 3rd in yards per attempt. His team is 5-1. I'd say he looks a little better than average.

Click to expand...

EBF, are you talking NFL QB or fantasy QB? As an NFL QB, as of today he looks much better than average, although I doubt he will sustain his current performance through the entire season, and will probably slide back to the pack. As a fantasy QB, he has been average at best - his best ranking in my leagues as of now is 19th.

Click to expand...

I was talking as an NFL QB, but I do like his long term FF outlook. As we've seen with Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs.

Edwards is among the best passers in the league in terms of QB rating and yards per attempt. When you toss out the game where he got hurt, his FF ppg average places him just outside the top 12 in most of my leagues. So he's already a fringe QB1 in the first half of his second season as a starter.

His stats don't look similar to Aikman's at the same stage of his career. Edwards is averaging 8 yards per throw with a 70% completion percentage, a 98.8 QB rating, and a 2.5:1 TD to INT ratio. In Aikman's second season as a starter he averaged 6.5 yards per throw with a 56.6% completion percentage, a 66.6 QB rating, and a 0.6:1 TD to INT ratio.

Aikman didn't put up numbers on par with Trent's until his 5th season in the league. IMO Aikman was an average game manager QB who had the good fortune of being on the right team at the right time. I think he was more of a Pennington type whereas I think Edwards is closer to guys like Hasselbeck and Brady.

Click to expand...

Maybe it's just me, but you seem to be reading an awful lot into a 5+ game stretch, especially since his schedule over that span has been easier than average. Just last season, he was at 56%, 6.1 ypa, and a 7 TDs/8 interceptions ratio over 10 games. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain this performance the rest of the season... I doubt it.

Click to expand...

Why?

Click to expand...

Well, first of all, I just don't think he is an elite QB talent. A lot of QBs have elite 5 game stretches in their careers but never turn out to be elite QBs. So I think his performance will regress to his talent level. I also think some combination of harder schedule, tougher weather conditions, injuries (to him or others, nagging or serious), and defenses shifting some focus from Lynch to the passing game will factor into it.

Love this thread, best in-season discussion for dynasty values.

I'm in my 2nd year of playing in a dynasty league and I'm thinking I can make a run at a title this season, but I have a lack of RB depth with byes/injuries. I'm wondering what kind of value you guys would place on a S. Morris or Pittman to get me through the season. Obviously I like Morris better, and his owner is out of contention this season. What type of pick or younger player is worth an older player like this? My guess would be a 3rd rounder, or a prospect who is a long shot to pan out. I know F&L favors winning now so maybe he places more value on someone like Morris?

I'm getting an interesting perspective here with the contrasting reading of the season so far for Edwards & Orton. On the surface, they are pretty similar, and I may pull some quotes attributed to one or the other that seem to apply to both:

- Starting at QB in their mid-20's

- Were mid-round picks in the NFL draft from a lesser program in a big conference

- Cold weather outdoor teams, with a good RB who can catch passes.

- Already a fringe QB1 in the first half of second season as a starter.

- Some people aren't sure about their talent levels.

- Both have QB ratings over 90, which I've seen used as barometer of "quality QB play".

- Both should be starters for their teams this year and next, given their current performance level.

I understand that Edwards has an advantage in rate stats, and Orton has an advantage in raw stats, and that favors Edwards. I also understand that the Bears are leading the league in scoring, and that favors Orton; and also a VERY winnable bar bet.

Gamma1210 said:

Love this thread, best in-season discussion for dynasty values. I'm in my 2nd year of playing in a dynasty league and I'm thinking I can make a run at a title this season, but I have a lack of RB depth with byes/injuries. I'm wondering what kind of value you guys would place on a S. Morris or Pittman to get me through the season. Obviously I like Morris better, and his owner is out of contention this season. What type of pick or younger player is worth an older player like this? My guess would be a 3rd rounder, or a prospect who is a long shot to pan out. I know F&L favors winning now so maybe he places more value on someone like Morris?

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Unfortunately, it's hard to know how your league values picks in general, and how good people are at drafting that soon in. I am only in a full IDP league, but the way I would approach that question is that a 3rd round pick should net me a player that has:X% chance of becoming a contributor for me & Y% chance of becoming a every-week starter for meIt's hard to nail that down, and an IDP league the percentages are higher due to more positions where you can find players, especially LB's. I'd think a 3rd round pick would be fine - Morris could actually gain value the rest of the way.

Gamma1210 said:

Love this thread, best in-season discussion for dynasty values. I'm in my 2nd year of playing in a dynasty league and I'm thinking I can make a run at a title this season, but I have a lack of RB depth with byes/injuries. I'm wondering what kind of value you guys would place on a S. Morris or Pittman to get me through the season. Obviously I like Morris better, and his owner is out of contention this season. What type of pick or younger player is worth an older player like this? My guess would be a 3rd rounder, or a prospect who is a long shot to pan out. I know F&L favors winning now so maybe he places more value on someone like Morris?

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Every league is different but if you are talking about trading a rookie pick for either of these guys in my experience it will take more than a third rounder. A third rounder isn't viewed as being very valuable and could be used as a throw-in to sweeten a trade that is close, but beyond that, I doubt it would get you either of these players. The thing is both are starters right now and even though they don't have much long term value, in the middle of the season, a starting HB is worth at least a WR3 or a WR4 with good upside. If either guy needs a QB you could maybe get one of these guys with a QB2.

Just Win Baby said:

valhallan said:

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

az_prof said:

Edwards is now developing into an average QB

Click to expand...

Average?He's 2nd in the AFC in QB rating and 3rd in yards per attempt. His team is 5-1. I'd say he looks a little better than average.

Click to expand...

EBF, are you talking NFL QB or fantasy QB? As an NFL QB, as of today he looks much better than average, although I doubt he will sustain his current performance through the entire season, and will probably slide back to the pack. As a fantasy QB, he has been average at best - his best ranking in my leagues as of now is 19th.

Click to expand...

I was talking as an NFL QB, but I do like his long term FF outlook. As we've seen with Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs.

Edwards is among the best passers in the league in terms of QB rating and yards per attempt. When you toss out the game where he got hurt, his FF ppg average places him just outside the top 12 in most of my leagues. So he's already a fringe QB1 in the first half of his second season as a starter.

His stats don't look similar to Aikman's at the same stage of his career. Edwards is averaging 8 yards per throw with a 70% completion percentage, a 98.8 QB rating, and a 2.5:1 TD to INT ratio. In Aikman's second season as a starter he averaged 6.5 yards per throw with a 56.6% completion percentage, a 66.6 QB rating, and a 0.6:1 TD to INT ratio.

Aikman didn't put up numbers on par with Trent's until his 5th season in the league. IMO Aikman was an average game manager QB who had the good fortune of being on the right team at the right time. I think he was more of a Pennington type whereas I think Edwards is closer to guys like Hasselbeck and Brady.

Click to expand...

Maybe it's just me, but you seem to be reading an awful lot into a 5+ game stretch, especially since his schedule over that span has been easier than average. Just last season, he was at 56%, 6.1 ypa, and a 7 TDs/8 interceptions ratio over 10 games. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain this performance the rest of the season... I doubt it.

Click to expand...

Why?

Click to expand...

Well, first of all, I just don't think he is an elite QB talent. A lot of QBs have elite 5 game stretches in their careers but never turn out to be elite QBs. So I think his performance will regress to his talent level. I also think some combination of harder schedule, tougher weather conditions, injuries (to him or others, nagging or serious), and defenses shifting some focus from Lynch to the passing game will factor into it.

Click to expand...

His performance has hardly been "elite", rather it's just been efficient and productive. He's on pace for 3,600 yards with 15 TDs and 6 picks. Maybe the yardage drops to 3,200 or so and the TDs and picks move up to something like 19 and 9, but the numbers he's producing are pretty close to what those who saw some promise in him were expecting at this level. If he were on pace for 4,500 and 30 scores, I could see someone saying he'll come back down to Earth, but when he's only slightly above expectations I don't think there's any reason to expect a considerable decline over the course of the season.

valhallan said:

Just Win Baby said:

valhallan said:

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

az_prof said:

Edwards is now developing into an average QB

Click to expand...

Average?He's 2nd in the AFC in QB rating and 3rd in yards per attempt. His team is 5-1. I'd say he looks a little better than average.

Click to expand...

EBF, are you talking NFL QB or fantasy QB? As an NFL QB, as of today he looks much better than average, although I doubt he will sustain his current performance through the entire season, and will probably slide back to the pack. As a fantasy QB, he has been average at best - his best ranking in my leagues as of now is 19th.

Click to expand...

I was talking as an NFL QB, but I do like his long term FF outlook. As we've seen with Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs.

Edwards is among the best passers in the league in terms of QB rating and yards per attempt. When you toss out the game where he got hurt, his FF ppg average places him just outside the top 12 in most of my leagues. So he's already a fringe QB1 in the first half of his second season as a starter.

His stats don't look similar to Aikman's at the same stage of his career. Edwards is averaging 8 yards per throw with a 70% completion percentage, a 98.8 QB rating, and a 2.5:1 TD to INT ratio. In Aikman's second season as a starter he averaged 6.5 yards per throw with a 56.6% completion percentage, a 66.6 QB rating, and a 0.6:1 TD to INT ratio.

Aikman didn't put up numbers on par with Trent's until his 5th season in the league. IMO Aikman was an average game manager QB who had the good fortune of being on the right team at the right time. I think he was more of a Pennington type whereas I think Edwards is closer to guys like Hasselbeck and Brady.

Click to expand...

Maybe it's just me, but you seem to be reading an awful lot into a 5+ game stretch, especially since his schedule over that span has been easier than average. Just last season, he was at 56%, 6.1 ypa, and a 7 TDs/8 interceptions ratio over 10 games. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain this performance the rest of the season... I doubt it.

Click to expand...

Why?

Click to expand...

Well, first of all, I just don't think he is an elite QB talent. A lot of QBs have elite 5 game stretches in their careers but never turn out to be elite QBs. So I think his performance will regress to his talent level. I also think some combination of harder schedule, tougher weather conditions, injuries (to him or others, nagging or serious), and defenses shifting some focus from Lynch to the passing game will factor into it.

Click to expand...

His performance has hardly been "elite", rather it's just been efficient and productive. He's on pace for 3,600 yards with 15 TDs and 6 picks. Maybe the yardage drops to 3,200 or so and the TDs and picks move up to something like 19 and 9, but the numbers he's producing are pretty close to what those who saw some promise in him were expecting at this level. If he were on pace for 4,500 and 30 scores, I could see someone saying he'll come back down to Earth, but when he's only slightly above expectations I don't think there's any reason to expect a considerable decline over the course of the season.

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70% completion percentage, 8 ypa, 2.5:1 TD:interception ratio, and 98.8 QB rating are elite numbers. Those are the numbers EBF cited, and you questioned my response to him, so that is what I meant by "elite" in Edwards' 5 game stretch. I think those numbers will all regress, probably by a fair margin.As you point out, even with those numbers, he's only on pace for 15 TDs and 3600 yards... so if he regresses, he will most likely not be startable in most fantasy leagues.

Trent Edwards is going to be a great NFL quarterback. He has the ability to lead his team to victory in games, and makes very few mistakes. He is not going to put up great fantasy numbers on any sort of consistent basis. I would expect 200 yards and 1 TD from him on a weekly basis. Occasionally he will throw for an extra TD, and sometimes he will throw a pick or two....but 200 yards and 1 TD are his baseline weekly stats.

He is a fantastic QB to have on your bench for bye weeks and injury issues, but I wouldn't want to have to start him every week.

70% completion percentage, 8 ypa, 2.5:1 TD:interception ratio, and 98.8 QB rating are elite numbers. Those are the numbers EBF cited, and you questioned my response to him, so that is what I meant by "elite" in Edwards' 5 game stretch. I think those numbers will all regress, probably by a fair margin.

As you point out, even with those numbers, he's only on pace for 15 TDs and 3600 yards... so if he regresses, he will most likely not be startable in most fantasy leagues.

I always like to make definitive judgments on a QB after 16 starts. Particularly those who are in their first year with an offensive coordinator playing under a defensive minded run oriented coach. These situations never change. Nope, you'll never see a coach like Belichick, Parcells or Cowher open up their offenses if they have a smart reliable QB and solid skill position players. The die is cast; what you see is what you get.

Burning Sensation said:

Holden23 said:

jdoggydogg said:

What's the board's opinion regarding Vincent Jackson as a dynasty prospect?

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I think his value is slightly inflated with Chambers out, but he may have earned a few more targets when Chambers comes back. With LT and the Chargers running game on the decline, and a good young Qb like Rivers, Jackson is a top 25 dynasty WR.

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Who would you rather have now and long term, Roy Williams or Vincent Jackson?

thevidon said:

Trent Edwards is going to be a great NFL quarterback. He has the ability to lead his team to victory in games, and makes very few mistakes. He is not going to put up great fantasy numbers on any sort of consistent basis. I would expect 200 yards and 1 TD from him on a weekly basis. Occasionally he will throw for an extra TD, and sometimes he will throw a pick or two....but 200 yards and 1 TD are his baseline weekly stats. He is a fantastic QB to have on your bench for bye weeks and injury issues, but I wouldn't want to have to start him every week.

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If you wanted my blog that badly, why didn't you just ask for it?

I think you have Lendale too low. He certainly should be ahead of Kevin Jones. Neither look like they've been updated since before the season started, so you might want to take a look.

Holden23 said:

Burning Sensation said:

Holden23 said:

jdoggydogg said:

What's the board's opinion regarding Vincent Jackson as a dynasty prospect?

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Click to expand...

I think his value is slightly inflated with Chambers out, but he may have earned a few more targets when Chambers comes back. With LT and the Chargers running game on the decline, and a good young Qb like Rivers, Jackson is a top 25 dynasty WR.

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Who would you rather have now and long term, Roy Williams or Vincent Jackson?

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I am not a big Roy Wiliams fan as i believe him to be a better athlete than WR. With that said, i would take him over Vincent Jackson, as he has top 10 upside on that Cowboys team, especially after Owens in gone.

footballguy#1 said:

I think you have Lendale too low. He certainly should be ahead of Kevin Jones. Neither look like they've been updated since before the season started, so you might want to take a look.

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They've both been updated. LenDale just stinks. If you play in a TD-heavy league, make the adjustment. I just don't think there's much Dynasty value there. I'm far from sold on Kevin Jones being a better option than LenDale, but it's not because LenDale has considerable Dynasty value.

Fear & Loathing said:

footballguy#1 said:

I think you have Lendale too low. He certainly should be ahead of Kevin Jones. Neither look like they've been updated since before the season started, so you might want to take a look.

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They've both been updated. LenDale just stinks. If you play in a TD-heavy league, make the adjustment. I just don't think there's much Dynasty value there. I'm far from sold on Kevin Jones being a better option than LenDale, but it's not because LenDale has considerable Dynasty value.

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The thread is great, and your rankings are great, so I'm not taking a crack at you, but this is what you have listed for Kevin Jones. It does not sound updated to me.40. Kevin Jones, CHI | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 13Won't be back by Week 1, will be less than 100% when he does play, will be injured quickly as soon as he does come back, and will likely be splitting carries wherever he winds up. What's the fantasy football equivalent of a "face for radio" or a "face only a mother could love"? A running back only an intractably twitterpated owner could love.

footballguy#1 said:

The thread is great, and your rankings are great, so I'm not taking a crack at you, but this is what you have listed for Kevin Jones. It does not sound updated to me.40. Kevin Jones, CHI | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 13Won't be back by Week 1, will be less than 100% when he does play, will be injured quickly as soon as he does come back, and will likely be splitting carries wherever he winds up. What's the fantasy football equivalent of a "face for radio" or a "face only a mother could love"? A running back only an intractably twitterpated owner could love.

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Thanks, footballguy#1. Appreciate the compliment.The rankings are up-to-date through last week. I will update them again tomorrow (I try to do them every Wednesday night). The player comments, however, are kind of spotty on being up-to-date. There just aren't enough hours in the week for me to update all of them, but I do try to throw in a fresh blurb here and there where relevant. I don't expect anybody to go back through and read this unwieldy thread, so I'll just copy & paste my response from a couple of weeks ago regarding player comments:

Rotoworld used the rankings with commentary for their Draft Guide, and we're probably going to do it again with their Season Pass in a couple of weeks. . . so there's a conflict of interest there (not to mention a severe lack of time on my part). There's really no feasible way for me to do rankings with commentary for a pay site, and then turn around and put the same thing out for free on my blog -- even if the commentary differed slightly.So realistically I can keep the commentary that's on there and update a guy here and there when I have the time and the inclination, or I can just delete the commentary altogether. My options are kind of limited by circumstances here.

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Just Win Baby said:

valhallan said:

Just Win Baby said:

valhallan said:

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

Just Win Baby said:

EBF said:

az_prof said:

Edwards is now developing into an average QB

Click to expand...

Average?He's 2nd in the AFC in QB rating and 3rd in yards per attempt. His team is 5-1. I'd say he looks a little better than average.

Click to expand...

EBF, are you talking NFL QB or fantasy QB? As an NFL QB, as of today he looks much better than average, although I doubt he will sustain his current performance through the entire season, and will probably slide back to the pack. As a fantasy QB, he has been average at best - his best ranking in my leagues as of now is 19th.

Click to expand...

I was talking as an NFL QB, but I do like his long term FF outlook. As we've seen with Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs.

Edwards is among the best passers in the league in terms of QB rating and yards per attempt. When you toss out the game where he got hurt, his FF ppg average places him just outside the top 12 in most of my leagues. So he's already a fringe QB1 in the first half of his second season as a starter.

His stats don't look similar to Aikman's at the same stage of his career. Edwards is averaging 8 yards per throw with a 70% completion percentage, a 98.8 QB rating, and a 2.5:1 TD to INT ratio. In Aikman's second season as a starter he averaged 6.5 yards per throw with a 56.6% completion percentage, a 66.6 QB rating, and a 0.6:1 TD to INT ratio.

Aikman didn't put up numbers on par with Trent's until his 5th season in the league. IMO Aikman was an average game manager QB who had the good fortune of being on the right team at the right time. I think he was more of a Pennington type whereas I think Edwards is closer to guys like Hasselbeck and Brady.

Click to expand...

Maybe it's just me, but you seem to be reading an awful lot into a 5+ game stretch, especially since his schedule over that span has been easier than average. Just last season, he was at 56%, 6.1 ypa, and a 7 TDs/8 interceptions ratio over 10 games. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain this performance the rest of the season... I doubt it.

Click to expand...

Why?

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Well, first of all, I just don't think he is an elite QB talent. A lot of QBs have elite 5 game stretches in their careers but never turn out to be elite QBs. So I think his performance will regress to his talent level. I also think some combination of harder schedule, tougher weather conditions, injuries (to him or others, nagging or serious), and defenses shifting some focus from Lynch to the passing game will factor into it. :whoosh:

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His performance has hardly been "elite", rather it's just been efficient and productive. He's on pace for 3,600 yards with 15 TDs and 6 picks. Maybe the yardage drops to 3,200 or so and the TDs and picks move up to something like 19 and 9, but the numbers he's producing are pretty close to what those who saw some promise in him were expecting at this level. If he were on pace for 4,500 and 30 scores, I could see someone saying he'll come back down to Earth, but when he's only slightly above expectations I don't think there's any reason to expect a considerable decline over the course of the season.

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70% completion percentage, 8 ypa, 2.5:1 TD:interception ratio, and 98.8 QB rating are elite numbers. Those are the numbers EBF cited, and you questioned my response to him, so that is what I meant by "elite" in Edwards' 5 game stretch. I think those numbers will all regress, probably by a fair margin.As you point out, even with those numbers, he's only on pace for 15 TDs and 3600 yards... so if he regresses, he will most likely not be startable in most fantasy leagues.

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Yeah I don't really see it as elite, just efficient like some of us expected. He's going to be in the 60%s, he's going to be over 7 ypa, and he's going to have more TDs than INTs because he actually is a good quarterback. If you take a look at Bills games, there are no smoke and mirrors to those numbers. He makes the right reads and delivers the ball accurately. Anyway, much like Orton, Edwards is a fantastic guy to have in 2 QB leagues. It appears well over 90% of guys in this thread don't view the QB spot the way we do in start 2 leagues, so any guy that's not named Manning or Brees is somehow irrelevant. That's too bad.. quarterbacks are much more fun to analyze.

Harjiran said:

Fear & Loathing said:

Matt Ryan is interesting, but I agree with your logic.

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Can you expand your thoughts on Ryan? I've only been able to watch highlights but he seems poised in the pocket, a surprisingly adept "game manager" for a rookie. Now I'm hearing comparisons to Peyton Manning. What are people seeing in Ryan, specifically, that reminds them of Peyton? ATL appears to be a run-first offense -- does Ryan have enough weapons to be a true QB1 this season? What are his prospects down the road?This is a great thread that I've come to rely on, along with the Sons of the Tundra rankings, and I really appreciate the insights and opinions of F&L and others here. Thanks everybody!

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Except in extremely rare circumstances (Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson), rookie QBs & WRs need to prove it at the NFL level before I'm willing to buy in and place them high in the rankings. Even a guy like Matt Ryan, as great as he seems right now, could fall apart next game and not recover again the rest of the year. Basically, the two things I've kept in mind about Ryan even before he started playing were:1. He appeared to have the "it" factor at QB, was smart & competitive, and had already shown a penchant for clutch, late-game play.2. He may have accuracy issuesI watched Ryan a couple of times early this year, and his accuracy issues were definitely in evidence. He was impressive against Detroit and KC, but those are two of the worst defenses you will ever see. Seriously, it's tough to overstate how bad they both are. I missed the Buccaneers game where he completed just 13-of-33 passes for 4.8 YPA, which is an awful performance. Now the Bucs have a great defense, so a struggle is understandable. I did, however, catch the Carolina game where he 9-of-24 for 3.9 YPA, and his accuracy issues were very noticeable. At that point in the season, he was, to me, a typical rookie up-and-down QB.But his performances against Green Bay and Chicago were very impressive. He went into Green Bay against a very good team and came away with the win. Granted, the Packers D-Line is ravaged by injuries, A.J. Hawk barely played, and Al Harris, Atari Bigby, and Aaron Rouse were all out in the secondary. Aside from Aaron Rouse returning, Peyton Manning struggled mightily against the very same defense. The Bears defense isn't nearly as good as everybody thinks they are. They have no pass rush, and their secondary is all banged up. Contrary to conventional wisdom, they are a great matchup for QBs. Still, Ryan played impressively and showed off that "it" factor with his late-game heroics that pushed Atlanta to victory. The last two defenses Ryan has played against are both incredibly over-rated right now, so I try to keep that in perspective, but the rookie's stock has definitely gone up in my mind. I still think he has some accuracy issues to work through, and he's not out of the woods yet. I think the second half of the season is going to be a roller coaster. But with his poise, calm presence, and quick release (in addition to Mike Mularkey mostly putting him in position to succeed), he has a very bright future.I've said that there's no way I'd trading Kurt Warner for him, but I'm in first place with a quarterback roster of Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Gus Frerotte, and J.T. O'Sullivan. I need Warner every week, and I couldn't afford to take the major step down to Matt Ryan on a weekly basis. Guys who are building, however, would most certainly rather have Ryan than Warner. To answer a few of your questions: There's not much about Matt Ryan that reminds me of Peyton Manning. His accuracy isn't anywhere close to Manning's. I guess you could say that they're both smart QBs who do their homework and have strong, gym-rat type work ethics. No way Matt Ryan becomes a QB1 this season. His prospects down the road are very bright. I think he demonstrated that he can be a Franchise QB for the Falcons.

Fear & Loathing said:

He may have accuracy issues.

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Very helpful analysis, thanks. Do you think QB accuracy is an innate quality or is it something that can be improved upon signficiantly via practice reps and live game experience? In other words, can you "teach" accuracy?Unfortunately, like you I'm a Tom Brady owner and I'm in a position where I need to choose between Ryan and JTO this weekend. My gut is leaning toward Ryan. JTO definitely has a better match-up against the Seahawks but he looked so bad last weekend in terms of ugly interceptions and ball protection in the pocket, I kind of lost whatever faith I had in him.

Harjiran said:

Very helpful analysis, thanks. Do you think QB accuracy is an innate quality or is it something that can be improved upon significantly via practice reps and live game experience? In other words, can you "teach" accuracy?

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If you buy the Football Outsiders' research that suggests college games started and completion percentage in the NCAA pretty much tells the tale for top-drafted QBs, you'd have to say accuracy can't really be learned in the NFL. Which makes sense if you think about it - if you can't throw a ball where you want it to go after doing it for 6-8 years in H.S. and college it's probably not going to happen in the NFL. Better decision making, finding the open receiver and etc seems learnable - but raw accuracy is something you've either got or don't by the time you get the NFL IMO.

wdcrob said:

Harjiran said:

Very helpful analysis, thanks. Do you think QB accuracy is an innate quality or is it something that can be improved upon significantly via practice reps and live game experience? In other words, can you "teach" accuracy?

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If you buy the Football Outsiders' research that suggests college games started and completion percentage in the NCAA pretty much tells the tale for top-drafted QBs, you'd have to say accuracy can't really be learned in the NFL. Which makes sense if you think about it - if you can't throw a ball where you want it to go after doing it for 6-8 years in H.S. and college it's probably not going to happen in the NFL. Better decision making, finding the open receiver and etc seems learnable - but raw accuracy is something you've either got or don't by the time you get the NFL IMO.

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FWIW, Trent Edwards set a CA state record as a junior with a 78.1 completion percentage.

Burning Sensation said:

Holden23 said:

jdoggydogg said:

What's the board's opinion regarding Vincent Jackson as a dynasty prospect?

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I think his value is slightly inflated with Chambers out, but he may have earned a few more targets when Chambers comes back. With LT and the Chargers running game on the decline, and a good young Qb like Rivers, Jackson is a top 25 dynasty WR.

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I agree with this. I remember being very intrigued by V-Jax's size and talent even when he wasn't playing as a rookie. There have been ups and downs since then, but for the most part he just keeps improving every year. With that size and talent -- and the Chargers moving to more of a passing offense -- I think he's a very good Dynasty WR with a high ceiling. Top 25 is about right, but I could see him even higher. (Less in PPR leagues, but more in TD-heavy leagues.)

TheBradyBunch said:

First, I'd like to thank F&L for all the hard work in maintaining the dynasty rankings. It's an extremely useful tool to use as I'm often guilty of over-valuing my own players!

I'm curious what the Dynasty Community's thoughts are regarding Torry Holt and Donnie Avery. Will a young Avery be able to extend Holt's fantasy producing career or will Avery be the Greg Jennings to Donald Driver and quickly become the Rams #1 fantasy WR and phase my guy Holt out altogether? I'm guessing the latter, but I haven't seen enough and was hoping to drum up some quality opinions. Big changes coming in Holt/Avery rankings F&L or still too early?

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I don't know. I like Avery, and he's shown that his speed can be a problem for opposing defenses. But I also think it's too soon to write off Holt. I thought it was too soon to write him off as a Top-10 WR last year, so I've been wrong about him before. Holt is also a free agent after the 2009 season, and he's made it known that he wants to play for the Panthers (Carolina native).

Looks like I currently have Holt 28th and Avery 37th.

valhallan said:

Obviously he's not going to be a cornerstone QB1 in standard start 1 leagues, but many of us play in leagues that require 2 QBs.

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What's the percentage of fantasy owners who play in 2-QB leagues? I have no clue, but if I had to throw out a number for Dynasty leaguers, I'd venture a guess at less than 10%. I think the 2-QB guys are going to have to throw us a bone on this. It's obvious that those leagues skew values on QB2s & QB3s tremendously, so it's not like we're all going to come to agreement on values for those QBs in the No. 15 - No. 35 range. Frankly, the values are so different that there's no use even having a debate about a player's value between a guy who plays in a 1-QB league vs. a guy who plays in a 2-QB league.

Fear & Loathing said:

footballguy#1 said:

I think you have Lendale too low. He certainly should be ahead of Kevin Jones. Neither look like they've been updated since before the season started, so you might want to take a look.

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They've both been updated. LenDale just stinks. If you play in a TD-heavy league, make the adjustment. I just don't think there's much Dynasty value there. I'm far from sold on Kevin Jones being a better option than LenDale, but it's not because LenDale has considerable Dynasty value.

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Lendale was RB2 in my league even before last week's burst of production. How do you see his role changing next year? I ask because it seems pretty clear that Lendale will have the exact same role next year that he has this year. 15-18 carries most weeks, majority of goalline carries. Call me crazy, but a guy like that will have some value. Now, if you say that the Titans are unlikely to dominate and provide LW this many goalline looks, that makes sense to me. It's also a better argument than "Lendale just stinks". Clearly the Titans staff disagrees with you, or else he wouldn't have 300+ yards and 8 TDs this year through 6 games.

Michael Fox said:

Fear & Loathing said:

footballguy#1 said:

I think you have Lendale too low. He certainly should be ahead of Kevin Jones. Neither look like they've been updated since before the season started, so you might want to take a look.

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They've both been updated. LenDale just stinks. If you play in a TD-heavy league, make the adjustment. I just don't think there's much Dynasty value there. I'm far from sold on Kevin Jones being a better option than LenDale, but it's not because LenDale has considerable Dynasty value.

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Lendale was RB2 in my league even before last week's burst of production. How do you see his role changing next year? I ask because it seems pretty clear that Lendale will have the exact same role next year that he has this year. 15-18 carries most weeks, majority of goalline carries. Call me crazy, but a guy like that will have some value. Now, if you say that the Titans are unlikely to dominate and provide LW this many goalline looks, that makes sense to me. It's also a better argument than "Lendale just stinks". Clearly the Titans staff disagrees with you, or else he wouldn't have 300+ yards and 8 TDs this year through 6 games.

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You miss the fact that a chimpanzee could run for 100 yards a game with our O-line. Fisher said last week that the )-line is to thank for lendale and chris's big day. Lendale is not a talented player, he is just in a good spot with a VERY loyal coach and a superb o-line.

Lendale White won't be getting 15+ carries a game when the Titans play serious defenses. Looking back this season at his workload against solid run defenses, he has the following stats:

Week 1: JAC -> 15 carries, 40 yards, 2.7 YPC

Week 4: MIN -> 11 carries, 13 yards, 1.2 YPC

Week 5: BAL -> 3 carries, 4 yards, 1.3 YPC

Granted, Lendale White did score 2 TD's in those three weeks but short yardage TDs cannot be relied on for weekly production. Lendale will not see a solid number of carries against good defenses, and when he does he will not produce well with them. Chris Johnson is now the back the Titans rely on for production in close games against good defenses. Lendale White is a prime sell high candidate right now......his TD production is bound to taper off and he will be left with terrible value. Get rid of him while you can.

benm3218 said:

Michael Fox said:

Fear & Loathing said:

footballguy#1 said:

I think you have Lendale too low. He certainly should be ahead of Kevin Jones. Neither look like they've been updated since before the season started, so you might want to take a look.

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They've both been updated. LenDale just stinks. If you play in a TD-heavy league, make the adjustment. I just don't think there's much Dynasty value there. I'm far from sold on Kevin Jones being a better option than LenDale, but it's not because LenDale has considerable Dynasty value.

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Lendale was RB2 in my league even before last week's burst of production. How do you see his role changing next year? I ask because it seems pretty clear that Lendale will have the exact same role next year that he has this year. 15-18 carries most weeks, majority of goalline carries. Call me crazy, but a guy like that will have some value. Now, if you say that the Titans are unlikely to dominate and provide LW this many goalline looks, that makes sense to me. It's also a better argument than "Lendale just stinks". Clearly the Titans staff disagrees with you, or else he wouldn't have 300+ yards and 8 TDs this year through 6 games.

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You miss the fact that a chimpanzee could run for 100 yards a game with our O-line. Fisher said last week that the )-line is to thank for lendale and chris's big day. Lendale is not a talented player, he is just in a good spot with a VERY loyal coach and a superb o-line.

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Um, I don't miss any of that. For your perspective to make ANY sense, you have to argue that either: 1) Lendale's workload gets reduced next year, or 2) Lendale gets replaced.On #1, do you really see CJ ever being an every-down RB?On #2, Fisher seems to value LW for what he is - a guy who gets 3 yds on every play. I don't see that changing.

Michael Fox said:

benm3218 said:

Michael Fox said:

Fear & Loathing said:

footballguy#1 said:

I think you have Lendale too low. He certainly should be ahead of Kevin Jones. Neither look like they've been updated since before the season started, so you might want to take a look.

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They've both been updated. LenDale just stinks. If you play in a TD-heavy league, make the adjustment. I just don't think there's much Dynasty value there. I'm far from sold on Kevin Jones being a better option than LenDale, but it's not because LenDale has considerable Dynasty value.

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Lendale was RB2 in my league even before last week's burst of production. How do you see his role changing next year? I ask because it seems pretty clear that Lendale will have the exact same role next year that he has this year. 15-18 carries most weeks, majority of goalline carries. Call me crazy, but a guy like that will have some value. Now, if you say that the Titans are unlikely to dominate and provide LW this many goalline looks, that makes sense to me. It's also a better argument than "Lendale just stinks". Clearly the Titans staff disagrees with you, or else he wouldn't have 300+ yards and 8 TDs this year through 6 games.

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You miss the fact that a chimpanzee could run for 100 yards a game with our O-line. Fisher said last week that the )-line is to thank for lendale and chris's big day. Lendale is not a talented player, he is just in a good spot with a VERY loyal coach and a superb o-line.

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Um, I don't miss any of that. For your perspective to make ANY sense, you have to argue that either: 1) Lendale's workload gets reduced next year, or 2) Lendale gets replaced.On #1, do you really see CJ ever being an every-down RB?On #2, Fisher seems to value LW for what he is - a guy who gets 3 yds on every play. I don't see that changing.

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I see CJ getting more carries than Lendale and I see Lendale being replaced eventually... If not next year then the following. He is NOT talented. He is mediocre and is playing for one of the only teams in the NFL he could be successful with.

Michael Fox said:

benm3218 said:

Michael Fox said:

Fear & Loathing said:

footballguy#1 said:

I think you have Lendale too low. He certainly should be ahead of Kevin Jones. Neither look like they've been updated since before the season started, so you might want to take a look.

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They've both been updated. LenDale just stinks. If you play in a TD-heavy league, make the adjustment. I just don't think there's much Dynasty value there. I'm far from sold on Kevin Jones being a better option than LenDale, but it's not because LenDale has considerable Dynasty value.

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Lendale was RB2 in my league even before last week's burst of production. How do you see his role changing next year? I ask because it seems pretty clear that Lendale will have the exact same role next year that he has this year. 15-18 carries most weeks, majority of goalline carries. Call me crazy, but a guy like that will have some value.

Now, if you say that the Titans are unlikely to dominate and provide LW this many goalline looks, that makes sense to me. It's also a better argument than "Lendale just stinks". Clearly the Titans staff disagrees with you, or else he wouldn't have 300+ yards and 8 TDs this year through 6 games.

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You miss the fact that a chimpanzee could run for 100 yards a game with our O-line. Fisher said last week that the )-line is to thank for lendale and chris's big day. Lendale is not a talented player, he is just in a good spot with a VERY loyal coach and a superb o-line.

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Um, I don't miss any of that. For your perspective to make ANY sense, you have to argue that either: 1) Lendale's workload gets reduced next year, or 2) Lendale gets replaced.On #1, do you really see CJ ever being an every-down RB?

On #2, Fisher seems to value LW for what he is - a guy who gets 3 yds on every play. I don't see that changing.

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1. LenDale does stink. I don't think it's clear at all that LenDale will have the same role next year . . . just as I didn't think it was clear this year that he would have the same role as last year. 2. I definitely see LenDale's role being decreased. As it is now, he's getting extremely lucky and piggybacking off of Chris Johnson's talent. His carries are too inconsistent, and as has been pointed out, he's useless against defenses that aren't awful.

3. No way will LenDale get 15-18 carries per week. We've been over this time and time again, but LenDale White is probably the one RB in the league most dependent on his team's defense staying dominant. If the defense suffers a key injury or if Haynesworth leaves in free agency, LenDale won't get off the pine. He has two roles basically: most important is to stick his head in there and pound the ball when his team has a lead, so they can control the game. The other role is goal-line, and as we've seen, that role is no sure thing. Johnson will take some of the goal-line work, and he's going to keep taking more and more of the touches.

Is Brian Westbrook an every-down RB? Chris Johnson will be as important to the Titans as Westbrook is to the Eagles . . . maybe ever more so b/c the Titans don't have a Donovan McNabb, a DeSean Jackson, or even a Kevin Curtis. The Titans don't move the ball against quality teams without putting it in Chris Johnson's hands. The opposing defenses don't respect anyone else on the Titans.

4. Yardage is a better predictor of future value than are TDs. We all know this by now, right? Except for elite superstars, touchdowns are fickle from year-to-year. Now throw in the fact that LenDale's TDs have little to do with any inherent talent on LenDale's part and are largely a product of the rest of the offense (especially Johnson) getting him in position to score.

I don't see any reason to believe that LenDale has any stable value in Dynasty leagues. He's basically a T.J. Duckett type of back wishing he could be Mike Alstott.

Edit to add -- I'll even go this far: Owners who win in Dynasty leagues would never be interested in LenDale White. Winning owners can see the writing on the wall and know that LenDale will not be a stable investment. You may be able to throw him in a game here and there this year and stay afloat, but you will lose more often than not with LenDale White in your starting lineup on a weekly basis.

Boy did I ever miss the boat on Chris Johnson.

Of course, I use a soft wall to bang my head on because missing a few players here and there is going to happen, especially in dynasty.

By the way, if you were one of the lucky (smart) ones who bought low on Calvin Johnson during the offseason, you really hit the jackpot. He has more going against him right now than any other top WR, but is still putting up top 5 numbers (top 10 in PPR). No QB, no line to block for the QB, no running game, no other weapons, low offensive time of possession, limited targets, etc. I think it's mind boggling that he is putting up the numbers he is.

Fear & Loathing said:

Michael Fox said:

benm3218 said:

Michael Fox said:

Fear & Loathing said:

footballguy#1 said:

I think you have Lendale too low. He certainly should be ahead of Kevin Jones. Neither look like they've been updated since before the season started, so you might want to take a look.

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They've both been updated. LenDale just stinks. If you play in a TD-heavy league, make the adjustment. I just don't think there's much Dynasty value there. I'm far from sold on Kevin Jones being a better option than LenDale, but it's not because LenDale has considerable Dynasty value.

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Lendale was RB2 in my league even before last week's burst of production. How do you see his role changing next year? I ask because it seems pretty clear that Lendale will have the exact same role next year that he has this year. 15-18 carries most weeks, majority of goalline carries. Call me crazy, but a guy like that will have some value.

Now, if you say that the Titans are unlikely to dominate and provide LW this many goalline looks, that makes sense to me. It's also a better argument than "Lendale just stinks". Clearly the Titans staff disagrees with you, or else he wouldn't have 300+ yards and 8 TDs this year through 6 games.

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You miss the fact that a chimpanzee could run for 100 yards a game with our O-line. Fisher said last week that the )-line is to thank for lendale and chris's big day. Lendale is not a talented player, he is just in a good spot with a VERY loyal coach and a superb o-line.

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Um, I don't miss any of that. For your perspective to make ANY sense, you have to argue that either: 1) Lendale's workload gets reduced next year, or 2) Lendale gets replaced.On #1, do you really see CJ ever being an every-down RB?

On #2, Fisher seems to value LW for what he is - a guy who gets 3 yds on every play. I don't see that changing.

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1. LenDale does stink. I don't think it's clear at all that LenDale will have the same role next year . . . just as I didn't think it was clear this year that he would have the same role as last year. 2. I definitely see LenDale's role being decreased. As it is now, he's getting extremely lucky and piggybacking off of Chris Johnson's talent. His carries are too inconsistent, and as has been pointed out, he's useless against defenses that aren't awful.

3. No way will LenDale get 15-18 carries per week. We've been over this time and time again, but LenDale White is probably the one RB in the league most dependent on his team's defense staying dominant. If the defense suffers a key injury or if Haynesworth leaves in free agency, LenDale won't get off the pine. He has two roles basically: most important is to stick his head in there and pound the ball when his team has a lead, so they can control the game. The other role is goal-line, and as we've seen, that role is no sure thing. Johnson will take some of the goal-line work, and he's going to keep taking more and more of the touches.

Is Brian Westbrook an every-down RB? Chris Johnson will be as important to the Titans as Westbrook is to the Eagles . . . maybe ever more so b/c the Titans don't have a Donovan McNabb, a DeSean Jackson, or even a Kevin Curtis. The Titans don't move the ball against quality teams without putting it in Chris Johnson's hands. The opposing defenses don't respect anyone else on the Titans.

4. Yardage is a better predictor of future value than are TDs. We all know this by now, right? Except for elite superstars, touchdowns are fickle from year-to-year. Now throw in the fact that LenDale's TDs have little to do with any inherent talent on LenDale's part and are largely a product of the rest of the offense (especially Johnson) getting him in position to score.

I don't see any reason to believe that LenDale has any stable value in Dynasty leagues. He's basically a T.J. Duckett type of back wishing he could be Mike Alstott.

Edit to add -- I'll even go this far: Owners who win in Dynasty leagues would never be interested in LenDale White. Winning owners can see the writing on the wall and know that LenDale will not be a stable investment. You may be able to throw him in a game here and there this year and stay afloat, but you will lose more often than not with LenDale White in your starting lineup on a weekly basis.

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Thanks for the thoughtful response F&L. We agree on much of what you've written but come to very different conclusions.1) Lendale is what he is. Fisher sees it, and still gives him the ball about 15 times per game.

2) Unless they replace Lendale, CJ ain't touching the ball as much as Westbrook. He can't hold up with that many touches. This is where BMI comes into play. To stay fresh, he needs another RB in the RBBC.

3) Agreed - if the Titans become losers again, Lendale won't get 15 carries per game

4) Yep. I'd rather have the guy who gets yardage - which is more stable - than the guy who gets TDs.

Evidently Lendale's value is close to zero, which means there is basically no point in giving him away. He's a guy who can help you win this year as RB3, so why trade him for a pittance?

Should a WR like Nate Washington at least start showing up on the radar? I don't believe he even appears on your list. I see he is still pretty young and has been productive when called upon. With Holmes out yesterday he hauled in a TD and had another one called back due to a holding penalty.

Warhogs said:

Should a WR like Nate Washington at least start showing up on the radar? I don't believe he even appears on your list. I see he is still pretty young and has been productive when called upon. With Holmes out yesterday he hauled in a TD and had another one called back due to a holding penalty.

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He's been on there off-and-on over the past couple of years, but I took him off for good when the Steelers drafted Limas Sweed.I think he's more of a guy who should be a waiver wire consideration for redraft leagues as opposed to someone with Dynasty value. Much better than a guy like Rashied Davis, but ultimately a redraft pickup as opposed to a Dynasty stash. Just my .02.

Michael Fox said:

Thanks for the thoughtful response F&L. We agree on much of what you've written but come to very different conclusions.

1) Lendale is what he is. Fisher sees it, and still gives him the ball about 15 times per game.

2) Unless they replace Lendale, CJ ain't touching the ball as much as Westbrook. He can't hold up with that many touches. This is where BMI comes into play. To stay fresh, he needs another RB in the RBBC.

3) Agreed - if the Titans become losers again, Lendale won't get 15 carries per game

4) Yep. I'd rather have the guy who gets yardage - which is more stable - than the guy who gets TDs.

Evidently Lendale's value is close to zero, which means there is basically no point in giving him away. He's a guy who can help you win this year as RB3, so why trade him for a pittance?

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Thank you, Alex P. Keaton. I would say we disagree on the following:1) LandWhale is what he is, and that's not a guy who will get the ball 15 times per game reliably. He may get the ball 12-15 times per game this season against crappy defenses, but the better the opponent the less you'll see of BakeSale.

2) BMI -- laughable. Are we still holding that against Chris Johnson? If so, what will it take to make it stop? The offense clearly revolves around him, and his role is only going to increase over the next couple of seasons. I don't get the knocks against Johnson so far. He's only won Rookie of the Month, is 4th in the NFL in rushing yardage, and has gotten consistent touches weekly. The negativity has no basis in anything other than prejudice.

3) Not just if the Titans become losers. If the Titans take even a small step down from dominance, FatDale won't have a role.

Final point: I think we need to gauge his value going forward as opposed to concentrating on the TDs he vultured in the first seven weeks. I don't believe he's going to be a big help as a RB3 the rest of the way because I don't believe he's going to keep getting in the end zone with that much frequency. And I'm not interested in gambling on a guy whose only value is in converting a goal-line carry if he gets one that week.

Anthony Borbely said:

Boy did I ever miss the boat on Chris Johnson. :( Of course, I use a soft wall to bang my head on because missing a few players here and there is going to happen, especially in dynasty. By the way, if you were one of the lucky (smart) ones who bought low on Calvin Johnson during the offseason, you really hit the jackpot. He has more going against him right now than any other top WR, but is still putting up top 5 numbers (top 10 in PPR). No QB, no line to block for the QB, no running game, no other weapons, low offensive time of possession, limited targets, etc. I think it's mind boggling that he is putting up the numbers he is.

Click to expand...

Here's how I would sum up LenDale White's Dynasty value:

A lot of us can agree that a back like Joseph Addai is a more of a top tier guy who derives a large portion of his value from situation. He's a talented back, sure, but the fact that he's a talented back in an offense like the Colts' lends him considerably more value than his talent alone would on many other teams.

We might say, hypothetically, that Addai's Dynasty value is 60% situation and 40% talent . . . which would be on the high end of the situation scale for a RB. Now where would you put LenDale White's Dynasy value on the same scale?

Situation - 99%, Talent - 1%

Situation - 95%, Talent - 5%?

Situation - 75%, Talent - 25%?

Situation - 65%, Talent - 35%

I think it's probably in the 90-95% situation range.

Fear & Loathing said:

valhallan said:

Obviously he's not going to be a cornerstone QB1 in standard start 1 leagues, but many of us play in leagues that require 2 QBs.

Click to expand...

What's the percentage of fantasy owners who play in 2-QB leagues? I have no clue, but if I had to throw out a number for Dynasty leaguers, I'd venture a guess at less than 10%. I think the 2-QB guys are going to have to throw us a bone on this. It's obvious that those leagues skew values on QB2s & QB3s tremendously, so it's not like we're all going to come to agreement on values for those QBs in the No. 15 - No. 35 range. Frankly, the values are so different that there's no use even having a debate about a player's value between a guy who plays in a 1-QB league vs. a guy who plays in a 2-QB league.

Click to expand...

Funny, just a few posts before yours I ended my involvement by saying this:

valhallan said:

It appears well over 90% of guys in this thread don't view the QB spot the way we do in start 2 leagues

Click to expand...

1QB dynasty leaguers only look for guys with top 5 upside. In 2QB, we also like reliable guys. I'd compare it to WRs in non-PPR vs PPR. In a performance bonus or TD-only league, a guy like Derrick Mason is a middling commodity at best. In PPR, he's gold. Two different mindsets, both perfectly valid within each system. It just so happens that a large enough percentage play PPR to make a guy like Mason worthy of discussion. However, so few play 2QB or diverge from the top-5 only mentality that Orton and Edwards aren't warranting much serious thought from many in here. Them's the breaks, I guess.

Fear & Loathing said:

Here's how I would sum up LenDale White's Dynasty value:

A lot of us can agree that a back like Joseph Addai is a more of a top tier guy who derives a large portion of his value from situation. He's a talented back, sure, but the fact that he's a talented back in an offense like the Colts' lends him considerably more value than his talent alone would on many other teams.

We might say, hypothetically, that Addai's Dynasty value is 60% situation and 40% talent . . . which would be on the high end of the situation scale for a RB. Now where would you put LenDale White's Dynasy value on the same scale?

Situation - 99%, Talent - 1%

Situation - 95%, Talent - 5%?

Situation - 75%, Talent - 25%?

Situation - 65%, Talent - 35%

I think it's probably in the 90-95% situation range.

Click to expand...

I agree predominantly ( I'd skew a little toward 70-80% situation, but potato/potato ). I guess the thing that gives me a little more faith in Lendale is that the talent he does have, minimal though it may be, fits **perfectly** with Jeff Fisher's MO. Just seems to me that he would prefer every football game to be 7-10 with 60 rushing plays.... or just enough offense to outperform the low number his defense lets in.

Maybe I'm misreading Fisher based on recent history, but even in the Titans championship runs they weren't the most prolific offense, leaning on bruiser Eddie George to shorten football games.

Now, I'm in no way saying that Chris Johnson is worse than White, but Lendale does, to me, seem like more of the type of back that Fisher likes to use. As such, White's not going to be left out of the game plan this year, and while he'll have his bad days ( Ravens** ) thrown in, there are other things on the Titans to fix before they get rid of something Fisher **likes** ( for better or for worse ). I honestly believe that in Fisher's mind, Lendale's value is more than his YPC. Its the Jacobs effect. He's there to throw 250 lbs of full speed ( well, Lendale, so 3/4-speed ) running back at a defense and tire them out. Chris Johnson just can't do that ( they get tired chasing behind him for 60 yards instead ).

Lendale has a place in Fisher-football, and I just can't see that being lowered much more than it already has. At least not for the short term ( '08, and likely '09 ). 10-15 carries, and all the goal line.

So it becomes the careful decision between talent and situation, as you said. Guys like SSOG like to come in here and tout talent above all. MJD/Lee Evans/whoever. I can respect this philosophy, since guys have a higher chance to break out, and when they do its generally at an elite level. That said, talent can take a while. You could have kept plugging in Lee Evans for the past 2 years, and won 3 games a season when he pulled his 200/3 games, and you'd have gotten beat up every other week. Situation has its merit, and Lendale's isn't likely to get any worse in the next year or so. He's not going to be around in 3 years. Agreed. It goes back to the concept that you can't accurately project that far out anyway, so why not ride White while he **is** in the profitable situation? Do I want him even as my RB2, no. Do I want him on a rebuilding team? Hell no. I'd be pretty happy to have him as a flex option on a contender though, even if I know I can only play him against weaker D's.

I say all this as a guy who owns Chris Johnson in 3 leagues and Lendale White in none. Unless a bruiser back falls as a steal to the Titans in the late rounds of next year's draft, I can't see them replacing White in '09, and I don't see Fisher giving up his bulldozer.

** FWIW, Chris Johnson didn't look any better. The Ravens are just really, really good.

valhallan said:

Fear & Loathing said:

valhallan said:

Obviously he's not going to be a cornerstone QB1 in standard start 1 leagues, but many of us play in leagues that require 2 QBs.

Click to expand...

What's the percentage of fantasy owners who play in 2-QB leagues? I have no clue, but if I had to throw out a number for Dynasty leaguers, I'd venture a guess at less than 10%. I think the 2-QB guys are going to have to throw us a bone on this. It's obvious that those leagues skew values on QB2s & QB3s tremendously, so it's not like we're all going to come to agreement on values for those QBs in the No. 15 - No. 35 range. Frankly, the values are so different that there's no use even having a debate about a player's value between a guy who plays in a 1-QB league vs. a guy who plays in a 2-QB league.

Click to expand...

Funny, just a few posts before yours I ended my involvement by saying this:

valhallan said:

It appears well over 90% of guys in this thread don't view the QB spot the way we do in start 2 leagues

Click to expand...

1QB dynasty leaguers only look for guys with top 5 upside. In 2QB, we also like reliable guys. I'd compare it to WRs in non-PPR vs PPR. In a performance bonus or TD-only league, a guy like Derrick Mason is a middling commodity at best. In PPR, he's gold. Two different mindsets, both perfectly valid within each system. It just so happens that a large enough percentage play PPR to make a guy like Mason worthy of discussion. However, so few play 2QB or diverge from the top-5 only mentality that Orton and Edwards aren't warranting much serious thought from many in here. Them's the breaks, I guess.

Click to expand...

Just wanted to say that I also play in a start 2 QB league, and I still think the rankings for QB are fairly reasonable, though the actual value is skewed down. For example, this year I drafted Matt Ryan #2, because stable long term QBs are too hard to acquire otherwise. Generally, I have added about 10-20 to the QB number to compare it to other positions.

PranksterJD said:

Fear & Loathing said:

Here's how I would sum up LenDale White's Dynasty value:

A lot of us can agree that a back like Joseph Addai is a more of a top tier guy who derives a large portion of his value from situation. He's a talented back, sure, but the fact that he's a talented back in an offense like the Colts' lends him considerably more value than his talent alone would on many other teams.

We might say, hypothetically, that Addai's Dynasty value is 60% situation and 40% talent . . . which would be on the high end of the situation scale for a RB. Now where would you put LenDale White's Dynasy value on the same scale?

Situation - 99%, Talent - 1%

Situation - 95%, Talent - 5%?

Situation - 75%, Talent - 25%?

Situation - 65%, Talent - 35%

I think it's probably in the 90-95% situation range.

Click to expand...

I agree predominantly ( I'd skew a little toward 70-80% situation, but potato/potato ). I guess the thing that gives me a little more faith in Lendale is that the talent he does have, minimal though it may be, fits **perfectly** with Jeff Fisher's MO. Just seems to me that he would prefer every football game to be 7-10 with 60 rushing plays.... or just enough offense to outperform the low number his defense lets in.

Maybe I'm misreading Fisher based on recent history, but even in the Titans championship runs they weren't the most prolific offense, leaning on bruiser Eddie George to shorten football games.

Now, I'm in no way saying that Chris Johnson is worse than White, but Lendale does, to me, seem like more of the type of back that Fisher likes to use. As such, White's not going to be left out of the game plan this year, and while he'll have his bad days ( Ravens** ) thrown in, there are other things on the Titans to fix before they get rid of something Fisher **likes** ( for better or for worse ). I honestly believe that in Fisher's mind, Lendale's value is more than his YPC. Its the Jacobs effect. He's there to throw 250 lbs of full speed ( well, Lendale, so 3/4-speed ) running back at a defense and tire them out. Chris Johnson just can't do that ( they get tired chasing behind him for 60 yards instead ).

Lendale has a place in Fisher-football, and I just can't see that being lowered much more than it already has. At least not for the short term ( '08, and likely '09 ). 10-15 carries, and all the goal line.

So it becomes the careful decision between talent and situation, as you said. Guys like SSOG like to come in here and tout talent above all. MJD/Lee Evans/whoever. I can respect this philosophy, since guys have a higher chance to break out, and when they do its generally at an elite level. That said, talent can take a while. You could have kept plugging in Lee Evans for the past 2 years, and won 3 games a season when he pulled his 200/3 games, and you'd have gotten beat up every other week. Situation has its merit, and Lendale's isn't likely to get any worse in the next year or so. He's not going to be around in 3 years. Agreed. It goes back to the concept that you can't accurately project that far out anyway, so why not ride White while he **is** in the profitable situation? Do I want him even as my RB2, no. Do I want him on a rebuilding team? Hell no. I'd be pretty happy to have him as a flex option on a contender though, even if I know I can only play him against weaker D's.

I say all this as a guy who owns Chris Johnson in 3 leagues and Lendale White in none. Unless a bruiser back falls as a steal to the Titans in the late rounds of next year's draft, I can't see them replacing White in '09, and I don't see Fisher giving up his bulldozer.

** FWIW, Chris Johnson didn't look any better. The Ravens are just really, really good.

Click to expand...

Nevermind.

Fear & Loathing said:

Thank you, Alex P. Keaton. I would say we disagree on the following:

1) LandWhale is what he is, and that's not a guy who will get the ball 15 times per game reliably. He may get the ball 12-15 times per game this season against crappy defenses, but the better the opponent the less you'll see of BakeSale.

2) BMI -- laughable. Are we still holding that against Chris Johnson? If so, what will it take to make it stop? The offense clearly revolves around him, and his role is only going to increase over the next couple of seasons. I don't get the knocks against Johnson so far. He's only won Rookie of the Month, is 4th in the NFL in rushing yardage, and has gotten consistent touches weekly. The negativity has no basis in anything other than prejudice.

3) Not just if the Titans become losers. If the Titans take even a small step down from dominance, FatDale won't have a role.

Final point: I think we need to gauge his value going forward as opposed to concentrating on the TDs he vultured in the first seven weeks. I don't believe he's going to be a big help as a RB3 the rest of the way because I don't believe he's going to keep getting in the end zone with that much frequency. And I'm not interested in gambling on a guy whose only value is in converting a goal-line carry if he gets one that week.

Click to expand...

1) agreed2) BMI will limit CJ's ability to be a 30-touch workhorse back, IMO. I love the guy, he's ultra-talented.

3) You're overstating this a tad, but I understand the point.

Thankfully, since I read your blog, I own CJ in addition to Lendale. Hope to trade Lendale away very soon.

Appreciate the thoughtful discourse.

Michael Fox said:

Fear & Loathing said:

Thank you, Alex P. Keaton. I would say we disagree on the following:

1) LandWhale is what he is, and that's not a guy who will get the ball 15 times per game reliably. He may get the ball 12-15 times per game this season against crappy defenses, but the better the opponent the less you'll see of BakeSale.

2) BMI -- laughable. Are we still holding that against Chris Johnson? If so, what will it take to make it stop? The offense clearly revolves around him, and his role is only going to increase over the next couple of seasons. I don't get the knocks against Johnson so far. He's only won Rookie of the Month, is 4th in the NFL in rushing yardage, and has gotten consistent touches weekly. The negativity has no basis in anything other than prejudice.

3) Not just if the Titans become losers. If the Titans take even a small step down from dominance, FatDale won't have a role.

Final point: I think we need to gauge his value going forward as opposed to concentrating on the TDs he vultured in the first seven weeks. I don't believe he's going to be a big help as a RB3 the rest of the way because I don't believe he's going to keep getting in the end zone with that much frequency. And I'm not interested in gambling on a guy whose only value is in converting a goal-line carry if he gets one that week.

Click to expand...

1) agreed2) BMI will limit CJ's ability to be a 30-touch workhorse back, IMO. I love the guy, he's ultra-talented.

3) You're overstating this a tad, but I understand the point.

Thankfully, since I read your blog, I own CJ in addition to Lendale. Hope to trade Lendale away very soon.

Appreciate the thoughtful discourse.

Click to expand...

There is no 30-touch workhorse back in the NFL.

mulliganm said:

valhallan said:

Fear & Loathing said:

valhallan said:

Obviously he's not going to be a cornerstone QB1 in standard start 1 leagues, but many of us play in leagues that require 2 QBs.

Click to expand...

What's the percentage of fantasy owners who play in 2-QB leagues? I have no clue, but if I had to throw out a number for Dynasty leaguers, I'd venture a guess at less than 10%. I think the 2-QB guys are going to have to throw us a bone on this. It's obvious that those leagues skew values on QB2s & QB3s tremendously, so it's not like we're all going to come to agreement on values for those QBs in the No. 15 - No. 35 range. Frankly, the values are so different that there's no use even having a debate about a player's value between a guy who plays in a 1-QB league vs. a guy who plays in a 2-QB league.

Click to expand...

Funny, just a few posts before yours I ended my involvement by saying this:

valhallan said:

It appears well over 90% of guys in this thread don't view the QB spot the way we do in start 2 leagues

Click to expand...

1QB dynasty leaguers only look for guys with top 5 upside. In 2QB, we also like reliable guys. I'd compare it to WRs in non-PPR vs PPR. In a performance bonus or TD-only league, a guy like Derrick Mason is a middling commodity at best. In PPR, he's gold. Two different mindsets, both perfectly valid within each system. It just so happens that a large enough percentage play PPR to make a guy like Mason worthy of discussion. However, so few play 2QB or diverge from the top-5 only mentality that Orton and Edwards aren't warranting much serious thought from many in here. Them's the breaks, I guess.

Click to expand...

Just wanted to say that I also play in a start 2 QB league, and I still think the rankings for QB are fairly reasonable, though the actual value is skewed down. For example, this year I drafted Matt Ryan #2, because stable long term QBs are too hard to acquire otherwise. Generally, I have added about 10-20 to the QB number to compare it to other positions.

Click to expand...

I agree that the rankings are fairly reasonable. My beef was more a philosophical one bemoaning the lack of consideration mid-range guys get. As said, nothing can really be done about it.By the way, I passed on Ryan at #4 and greatly regret it now.

Love your blog but I hava to question two things:

1) What's it going to take to make Matt Schaub at least a Tier 2 QB? He's shown this year what the Texans saw in signing him and he has an offense that is pass happy. That was proven last week against a bad run defense when they chose to throw the ball a lot.

2) Why is there such little love for Anquan Boldin? In my opinion, he's as productive as any WR going right now. He took a vicious shot against the Jets and look what he does in his first game back - 9 catches, 63 yards, 2 TDs. Fitzgerald catches the longer passes, but Boldin is the red-zone guy and the first-down guy.

rockalum said:

2) Why is there such little love for Anquan Boldin? In my opinion, he's as productive as any WR going right now. He took a vicious shot against the Jets and look what he does in his first game back - 9 catches, 63 yards, 2 TDs. Fitzgerald catches the longer passes, but Boldin is the red-zone guy and the first-down guy.

Click to expand...

F&L has always been a little bit of a Boldin hater IMO.