Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

[FUBAR]

F&L - do you think Greg Jones could take over Taylor's role in the coming weeks? Is there any upside with him as head #2 in the 2-headed JAX attack?

No, I can't see that happening. I'd be surprised if Greg Jones ever has any real value in the future.

Agreed. Fred Taylor is one of the best pure runners the league has seen in decades, and he's just barely enough to keep the beast that is Jones-Drew from being fully unleashed upon the unsuspecting world. No way Greg Jones can slow down that freight train. As soon as Taylor's no longer in the mix, MJD will BE Jacksonville's offense, and Greg Jones will be the dog that gets whatever scraps Maurice leaves for him.Which won't be much, since MJD is already one of the top 3 goal-line backs in the league, and a stud in pass protection, and unstoppable in the passing game, and will be getting all of the high-value, game-critical touches.

if jones-drew was really as good as you're making him out to be, he'd be the no. 1 man in jacksonville NOW. and YESTERDAY. does he have talent? yes. does he produce? yes. is he an every-down 25-carry back? i doubt it. teams that are comfortable with the way a guy performs in a certain role aren't always jumping to change it. that's not to say greg jones takes over for fred taylor, but perhaps the jags spend a high draft pick on a RB next year. again, jones-drew is very valuable and very productive. i just don't think he's going to soar up in value in the near future.

I doubt they use a high pick, it isn't all that difficult to find a player to compliment MJD, they can be had in free agency (Rudi would have worked, for example) or later in the draft. Greg Jones isn't the guy.

 

[Short Corner]

F&L - do you think Greg Jones could take over Taylor's role in the coming weeks? Is there any upside with him as head #2 in the 2-headed JAX attack?

No, I can't see that happening. I'd be surprised if Greg Jones ever has any real value in the future.

Agreed. Fred Taylor is one of the best pure runners the league has seen in decades, and he's just barely enough to keep the beast that is Jones-Drew from being fully unleashed upon the unsuspecting world. No way Greg Jones can slow down that freight train. As soon as Taylor's no longer in the mix, MJD will BE Jacksonville's offense, and Greg Jones will be the dog that gets whatever scraps Maurice leaves for him.Which won't be much, since MJD is already one of the top 3 goal-line backs in the league, and a stud in pass protection, and unstoppable in the passing game, and will be getting all of the high-value, game-critical touches.

if jones-drew was really as good as you're making him out to be, he'd be the no. 1 man in jacksonville NOW. and YESTERDAY. does he have talent? yes. does he produce? yes. is he an every-down 25-carry back? i doubt it. teams that are comfortable with the way a guy performs in a certain role aren't always jumping to change it. that's not to say greg jones takes over for fred taylor, but perhaps the jags spend a high draft pick on a RB next year. again, jones-drew is very valuable and very productive. i just don't think he's going to soar up in value in the near future.

So because they are utilizing an asset in Fred Taylor, it automatically implies that MJD is incapable of being a workhorse?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

F&L - do you think Greg Jones could take over Taylor's role in the coming weeks? Is there any upside with him as head #2 in the 2-headed JAX attack?

No, I can't see that happening. I'd be surprised if Greg Jones ever has any real value in the future.

Agreed. Fred Taylor is one of the best pure runners the league has seen in decades, and he's just barely enough to keep the beast that is Jones-Drew from being fully unleashed upon the unsuspecting world. No way Greg Jones can slow down that freight train. As soon as Taylor's no longer in the mix, MJD will BE Jacksonville's offense, and Greg Jones will be the dog that gets whatever scraps Maurice leaves for him.Which won't be much, since MJD is already one of the top 3 goal-line backs in the league, and a stud in pass protection, and unstoppable in the passing game, and will be getting all of the high-value, game-critical touches.

if jones-drew was really as good as you're making him out to be, he'd be the no. 1 man in jacksonville NOW. and YESTERDAY. does he have talent? yes. does he produce? yes. is he an every-down 25-carry back? i doubt it. teams that are comfortable with the way a guy performs in a certain role aren't always jumping to change it. that's not to say greg jones takes over for fred taylor, but perhaps the jags spend a high draft pick on a RB next year. again, jones-drew is very valuable and very productive. i just don't think he's going to soar up in value in the near future.

I don't know you rockalum, so I'm sorry to say this with such finality, but you are wrong . . . or maybe you just worded the first sentence all wrong. MJD is every bit as SSOG is making him about to be. As someone who watches nearly every game the Jags play, I can tell you that he's not just one of the best RBs in the game, he's one of the best players in the game. He does everything well and some things he does better than just about anybody in the game -- short-yardage conversion (which allows Del Rio to go for fourth down conversions far more than other coach in the league), screen pass, backfield blocking, and the draw play. Everything else he does well, but on those four things I doubt there's more than one or two backs in the league who are as good as he is. He's an excellent football player.

I don't think anybody is saying MJD is going to be an "every-down 25-carry back." SSOG and I both huge fans of his talents, and I'm sure he can speak for himself, but I'd envision more of a Brian Westbrook role with perhaps not quite so many receptions but more TDs because he's unstoppable in short-yardage.

As far as why he isn't starting now, Fred Taylor's career speaks for itself. It also speaks to how firmly ensconced he is in the Jags locker room and how big he is in the Jacksonville community. Throw in a 2007 season where he was a Pro Bowler and ran better than all but maybe three or four backs in all of football, and it would be unreasonable to expect the Jags to just shove him to the side early in the 2008 season.

 

[valhallan]

Just an observation... I think Orton should be above Kolb due to McNabb's stellar play and I don't Kolb getting a chance ANY time soon. Also, over Henne as I just think Orton is playing good and I don't feel Henne deserves a higher rank until he does something. Finally, I feel Orton is playing good enough and developing pretty nice to be ranked over Leinart who hasn't shown much of anything.

I don't think Orton is some incredible awesome player, but he is showing that he is improving and not just managing the game, but actually throwing well. I saw a couple Bears games and was actually impressed with his throws.... I just feel he is more than a stop gap right now. I have no proof, but since we're trying to get ahead of the curve, I feel in my eyes he is worth a higher rank than those other guys even in a Dynasty format.

I agree. Orton is making some real PRO throws these days and he's posting 60% completion and 7 ypa with absolute dreck at WR. That's a far cry from the 56.5% we saw from Derrick Anderson, who constantly needed Edwards and Winslow to bail him out with sick adjustments on his inaccurate passes. I see Orton as a clear long term answer for a team that has a habit of not bringing in competition at QB. If Davis or Olsen develops, he's only going to get better.

Sell high!

lolwell I am quite sure he doesn't have the value to sell right now as most would agree with you. I am going ou ton a limb here with my personal (thereby most likely wrong) observation. I think he has the opportunity to keep that job for a few years and maybe develop into a nice QB 2 for a 2 QB league. I can't trade him right now as no one else really has that opinion. So the offers you would get would be total garbage... Right now I am rotating Orten, Bulger, and JTO as my QB 2.

We'll see... I bet you two are right, but he isn't that bad in my opinion.

This is exactly what I have been thinking. Sell high? To whom? The guy in my league that loves Orton???? I think I'd have a hard time getting a 4th round rookie pick for him, even now. He's still a joke in just about every fantasy owners mind. His good play may totally be a mirage, and F&L and Borbely may be totally correct that Orton will fall back into poor QB play. Its likely actually.

I respect the opinions of both F&L and Borbely very much, but just don't see how selling a guy that is performing well right now for next to nothing is a good idea.

I'd sell him to benm3218 and valhallan.I'm not saying sell just to sell. But you're right that I am saying his recent (relatively) good play is more of a mirage than a harbinger of good things to come. Sure, hang on to him if you can't get anything for him. I'd have tried to package him with another player coming off that Lions game . . . or maybe try to get a draft pick for him. He's not a guy I'd be looking to keep going into next season.

Obviously he's not going to be a cornerstone QB1 in standard start 1 leagues, but many of us play in leagues that require 2 QBs. In that case, having a guy that's locked up his job and puts up 200 and a score or two consistently is very desirable. There really aren't that many QBs who you know will continue to be the starter for their team. I think Orton is in that group now and I'd love to have him, but his owner won't be moving him in my league because he knows how important it is to have a guy with a job.

 

[benm3218]

Just an observation... I think Orton should be above Kolb due to McNabb's stellar play and I don't Kolb getting a chance ANY time soon. Also, over Henne as I just think Orton is playing good and I don't feel Henne deserves a higher rank until he does something. Finally, I feel Orton is playing good enough and developing pretty nice to be ranked over Leinart who hasn't shown much of anything.

I don't think Orton is some incredible awesome player, but he is showing that he is improving and not just managing the game, but actually throwing well. I saw a couple Bears games and was actually impressed with his throws.... I just feel he is more than a stop gap right now. I have no proof, but since we're trying to get ahead of the curve, I feel in my eyes he is worth a higher rank than those other guys even in a Dynasty format.

I agree. Orton is making some real PRO throws these days and he's posting 60% completion and 7 ypa with absolute dreck at WR. That's a far cry from the 56.5% we saw from Derrick Anderson, who constantly needed Edwards and Winslow to bail him out with sick adjustments on his inaccurate passes. I see Orton as a clear long term answer for a team that has a habit of not bringing in competition at QB. If Davis or Olsen develops, he's only going to get better.

Sell high!

lolwell I am quite sure he doesn't have the value to sell right now as most would agree with you. I am going ou ton a limb here with my personal (thereby most likely wrong) observation. I think he has the opportunity to keep that job for a few years and maybe develop into a nice QB 2 for a 2 QB league. I can't trade him right now as no one else really has that opinion. So the offers you would get would be total garbage... Right now I am rotating Orten, Bulger, and JTO as my QB 2.

We'll see... I bet you two are right, but he isn't that bad in my opinion.

This is exactly what I have been thinking. Sell high? To whom? The guy in my league that loves Orton???? I think I'd have a hard time getting a 4th round rookie pick for him, even now. He's still a joke in just about every fantasy owners mind. His good play may totally be a mirage, and F&L and Borbely may be totally correct that Orton will fall back into poor QB play. Its likely actually.

I respect the opinions of both F&L and Borbely very much, but just don't see how selling a guy that is performing well right now for next to nothing is a good idea.

I'd sell him to benm3218 and valhallan.I'm not saying sell just to sell. But you're right that I am saying his recent (relatively) good play is more of a mirage than a harbinger of good things to come. Sure, hang on to him if you can't get anything for him. I'd have tried to package him with another player coming off that Lions game . . . or maybe try to get a draft pick for him. He's not a guy I'd be looking to keep going into next season.

Obviously he's not going to be a cornerstone QB1 in standard start 1 leagues, but many of us play in leagues that require 2 QBs. In that case, having a guy that's locked up his job and puts up 200 and a score or two consistently is very desirable. There really aren't that many QBs who you know will continue to be the starter for their team. I think Orton is in that group now and I'd love to have him, but his owner won't be moving him in my league because he knows how important it is to have a guy with a job.

Orten isn't as bad as alot of you think.... He played pretty good again today.... :IBTL:

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Just an observation... I think Orton should be above Kolb due to McNabb's stellar play and I don't Kolb getting a chance ANY time soon. Also, over Henne as I just think Orton is playing good and I don't feel Henne deserves a higher rank until he does something. Finally, I feel Orton is playing good enough and developing pretty nice to be ranked over Leinart who hasn't shown much of anything.

I don't think Orton is some incredible awesome player, but he is showing that he is improving and not just managing the game, but actually throwing well. I saw a couple Bears games and was actually impressed with his throws.... I just feel he is more than a stop gap right now. I have no proof, but since we're trying to get ahead of the curve, I feel in my eyes he is worth a higher rank than those other guys even in a Dynasty format.

I agree. Orton is making some real PRO throws these days and he's posting 60% completion and 7 ypa with absolute dreck at WR. That's a far cry from the 56.5% we saw from Derrick Anderson, who constantly needed Edwards and Winslow to bail him out with sick adjustments on his inaccurate passes. I see Orton as a clear long term answer for a team that has a habit of not bringing in competition at QB. If Davis or Olsen develops, he's only going to get better.

Sell high!

lolwell I am quite sure he doesn't have the value to sell right now as most would agree with you. I am going ou ton a limb here with my personal (thereby most likely wrong) observation. I think he has the opportunity to keep that job for a few years and maybe develop into a nice QB 2 for a 2 QB league. I can't trade him right now as no one else really has that opinion. So the offers you would get would be total garbage... Right now I am rotating Orten, Bulger, and JTO as my QB 2.

We'll see... I bet you two are right, but he isn't that bad in my opinion.

This is exactly what I have been thinking. Sell high? To whom? The guy in my league that loves Orton???? I think I'd have a hard time getting a 4th round rookie pick for him, even now. He's still a joke in just about every fantasy owners mind. His good play may totally be a mirage, and F&L and Borbely may be totally correct that Orton will fall back into poor QB play. Its likely actually.

I respect the opinions of both F&L and Borbely very much, but just don't see how selling a guy that is performing well right now for next to nothing is a good idea.

I'd sell him to benm3218 and valhallan.I'm not saying sell just to sell. But you're right that I am saying his recent (relatively) good play is more of a mirage than a harbinger of good things to come. Sure, hang on to him if you can't get anything for him. I'd have tried to package him with another player coming off that Lions game . . . or maybe try to get a draft pick for him. He's not a guy I'd be looking to keep going into next season.

Obviously he's not going to be a cornerstone QB1 in standard start 1 leagues, but many of us play in leagues that require 2 QBs. In that case, having a guy that's locked up his job and puts up 200 and a score or two consistently is very desirable. There really aren't that many QBs who you know will continue to be the starter for their team. I think Orton is in that group now and I'd love to have him, but his owner won't be moving him in my league because he knows how important it is to have a guy with a job.

Orten isn't as bad as alot of you think.... He played pretty good again today....

Studs win championships. Orton will never be a QB1 in my opinion, let alone a stud. Backup fantasy QBs are a dime a dozen. Orton's value will never be this high and unless I was a contender and had to play Orton because of my starter being hurt, I would be selling as fast as I can type this comment. I simply think he is outplaying his talent level. Those are the players I want to sell when their value peaks.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Just an observation... I think Orton should be above Kolb due to McNabb's stellar play and I don't Kolb getting a chance ANY time soon. Also, over Henne as I just think Orton is playing good and I don't feel Henne deserves a higher rank until he does something. Finally, I feel Orton is playing good enough and developing pretty nice to be ranked over Leinart who hasn't shown much of anything.

I don't think Orton is some incredible awesome player, but he is showing that he is improving and not just managing the game, but actually throwing well. I saw a couple Bears games and was actually impressed with his throws.... I just feel he is more than a stop gap right now. I have no proof, but since we're trying to get ahead of the curve, I feel in my eyes he is worth a higher rank than those other guys even in a Dynasty format.

I agree. Orton is making some real PRO throws these days and he's posting 60% completion and 7 ypa with absolute dreck at WR. That's a far cry from the 56.5% we saw from Derrick Anderson, who constantly needed Edwards and Winslow to bail him out with sick adjustments on his inaccurate passes. I see Orton as a clear long term answer for a team that has a habit of not bringing in competition at QB. If Davis or Olsen develops, he's only going to get better.

Sell high!

lolwell I am quite sure he doesn't have the value to sell right now as most would agree with you. I am going ou ton a limb here with my personal (thereby most likely wrong) observation. I think he has the opportunity to keep that job for a few years and maybe develop into a nice QB 2 for a 2 QB league. I can't trade him right now as no one else really has that opinion. So the offers you would get would be total garbage... Right now I am rotating Orten, Bulger, and JTO as my QB 2.

We'll see... I bet you two are right, but he isn't that bad in my opinion.

This is exactly what I have been thinking. Sell high? To whom? The guy in my league that loves Orton???? I think I'd have a hard time getting a 4th round rookie pick for him, even now. He's still a joke in just about every fantasy owners mind. His good play may totally be a mirage, and F&L and Borbely may be totally correct that Orton will fall back into poor QB play. Its likely actually.

I respect the opinions of both F&L and Borbely very much, but just don't see how selling a guy that is performing well right now for next to nothing is a good idea.

I'd sell him to benm3218 and valhallan.I'm not saying sell just to sell. But you're right that I am saying his recent (relatively) good play is more of a mirage than a harbinger of good things to come. Sure, hang on to him if you can't get anything for him. I'd have tried to package him with another player coming off that Lions game . . . or maybe try to get a draft pick for him. He's not a guy I'd be looking to keep going into next season.

Obviously he's not going to be a cornerstone QB1 in standard start 1 leagues, but many of us play in leagues that require 2 QBs. In that case, having a guy that's locked up his job and puts up 200 and a score or two consistently is very desirable. There really aren't that many QBs who you know will continue to be the starter for their team. I think Orton is in that group now and I'd love to have him, but his owner won't be moving him in my league because he knows how important it is to have a guy with a job.

Orten isn't as bad as alot of you think.... He played pretty good again today....

Studs win championships. Orton will never be a QB1 in my opinion, let alone a stud. Backup fantasy QBs are a dime a dozen. Orton's value will never be this high and unless I was a contender and had to play Orton because of my starter being hurt, I would be selling as fast as I can type this comment. I simply think he is outplaying his talent level. Those are the players I want to sell when their value peaks.

Will someone be able to trade Orton for a stud that will help them win a championship?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Studs win championships. Orton will never be a QB1 in my opinion, let alone a stud. Backup fantasy QBs are a dime a dozen. Orton's value will never be this high and unless I was a contender and had to play Orton because of my starter being hurt, I would be selling as fast as I can type this comment. I simply think he is outplaying his talent level. Those are the players I want to sell when their value peaks.

I agree, but I'll give credit where credit is due. Orton is playing very well right now. I'm skeptical that it will continue, but he's playing much better right now than I ever thought he could.I do agree with Anthony's reasoning above though.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Will someone be able to trade Orton for a stud that will help them win a championship?

Of course not. But it doesn't mean you can't get some picks, or maybe a prospect or two, or perhaps including him in a larger deal. The point is if you don't think he is a future stud or a future QB1, now is the time to sell.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Will someone be able to trade Orton for a stud that will help them win a championship?

Of course not. But it doesn't mean you can't get some picks, or maybe a prospect or two, or perhaps including him in a larger deal. The point is if you don't think he is a future stud or a future QB1, now is the time to sell.

I dont have him, but even if i needed a number two QB, i couldnt imagine giving up anything more than a 3rd round rookie pick. Maybe you could sell him off for something more to a Chicago homer, or an owner that isnt very bright.

 

[SSOG]

if jones-drew was really as good as you're making him out to be, he'd be the no. 1 man in jacksonville NOW. and YESTERDAY. does he have talent? yes. does he produce? yes. is he an every-down 25-carry back? i doubt it. teams that are comfortable with the way a guy performs in a certain role aren't always jumping to change it. that's not to say greg jones takes over for fred taylor, but perhaps the jags spend a high draft pick on a RB next year. again, jones-drew is very valuable and very productive. i just don't think he's going to soar up in value in the near future.

Larry JohnsonJamal AndersonJames WilderEric DickersonEddie George.What is this? It's a complete list of every back in NFL history who has averaged 25+ carries a game over a 16-game season. Each of them did it once. Is Maurice Jones-Drew a 25+ carry back? HELL NO. In today's NFL, no one is. No one. Is Maurice Jones-Drew capable of being an 18 carry a game back? I certainly think that's a lot more reasonable, and after seeing what kind of stud he is on a 160 carry season, I'm anxious to see what we get in a 280 carry season.Jacksonville platoons Jones-Drew with Taylor because Taylor is a stud. If they were sitting in the draft and there was an RB on the board that was 100% guaranteed to be Fred Taylor 2.0, then Jacksonville would take him, because you don't pass on studs like Taylor. The problem is, there's no 100% guaranteed Fred Taylor 2.0 out there. Why would Jacksonville waste picks shoring up a position of strength?I don't know if MJD is going to SOAR up in value. I don't know if he's going to put up an elite top-3 season. The reason why I'm so high on him is because I think he's going to give us a really long run of top-8 seasons here. Either he'll become a workhorse and post unreal numbers, or else Jax will keep him fresher and he'll last a long time. Either way, it's win/win for MJD owners.

 

[SSOG]

Obviously he's not going to be a cornerstone QB1 in standard start 1 leagues, but many of us play in leagues that require 2 QBs. In that case, having a guy that's locked up his job and puts up 200 and a score or two consistently is very desirable. There really aren't that many QBs who you know will continue to be the starter for their team. I think Orton is in that group now and I'd love to have him, but his owner won't be moving him in my league because he knows how important it is to have a guy with a job.

The dynamic is definitely different in a 2QB league, but in a 1QB league, I don't view Orton as anything more than a fringe asset. His upside, in my opinion, is the QB8-12 range. QB is a lot like TE in that... guys in the 8-12 range simply aren't that valuable. Either you have a stud, or you have someone in that big nebulous 6-16 range that generally has very little separating them. Who you have in that mass doesn't really matter. And if you don't have anyone in that mass, then someone in that mass is always available on the cheap. Kyle Orton's upside is the kind of player who, if you don't have him on your team, is really easy to cheaply acquire a reasonable facsimile. Guys like Chad Pennington or Matt Hasselbeck or J.T. O'Sullivan can always be had pretty cheaply. So if I don't think a QB can be a Peyton Manning / Tom Brady / Drew Brees type guy, then I don't lose much sleep over him one way or another. Orton's the kind of guy who is a dime a dozen. It's nice to have one of those types of guys on your roster, but which one doesn't make a whole lot of difference to me.The other big downside to Orton is that I don't think he has any long-term job stability. Are you willing to bet that he's still the starting QB for his team 3 years from now? Because I sure as hell am not. I'm not even willing to bet he's still starting in the league ANYWHERE 3 years from now. He doesn't have great upside, he doesn't have great security, he's just not a great dynasty prospect. He's the kind of guy you don't want if you're building for the future, because you don't know if he has a future... and he's the kind of guy you don't want if you're building for the present, because do you honestly think you're winning a championship while starting Kyle Orton? His upside is a backup spot on a contender's roster.

 

[Burning Sensation]

if jones-drew was really as good as you're making him out to be, he'd be the no. 1 man in jacksonville NOW. and YESTERDAY. does he have talent? yes. does he produce? yes. is he an every-down 25-carry back? i doubt it. teams that are comfortable with the way a guy performs in a certain role aren't always jumping to change it. that's not to say greg jones takes over for fred taylor, but perhaps the jags spend a high draft pick on a RB next year. again, jones-drew is very valuable and very productive. i just don't think he's going to soar up in value in the near future.

Larry JohnsonJamal AndersonJames WilderEric DickersonEddie George.What is this? It's a complete list of every back in NFL history who has averaged 25+ carries a game over a 16-game season. Each of them did it once. Is Maurice Jones-Drew a 25+ carry back? HELL NO. In today's NFL, no one is. No one. Is Maurice Jones-Drew capable of being an 18 carry a game back? I certainly think that's a lot more reasonable, and after seeing what kind of stud he is on a 160 carry season, I'm anxious to see what we get in a 280 carry season.Jacksonville platoons Jones-Drew with Taylor because Taylor is a stud. If they were sitting in the draft and there was an RB on the board that was 100% guaranteed to be Fred Taylor 2.0, then Jacksonville would take him, because you don't pass on studs like Taylor. The problem is, there's no 100% guaranteed Fred Taylor 2.0 out there. Why would Jacksonville waste picks shoring up a position of strength?I don't know if MJD is going to SOAR up in value. I don't know if he's going to put up an elite top-3 season. The reason why I'm so high on him is because I think he's going to give us a really long run of top-8 seasons here. Either he'll become a workhorse and post unreal numbers, or else Jax will keep him fresher and he'll last a long time. Either way, it's win/win for MJD owners.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Obviously he's not going to be a cornerstone QB1 in standard start 1 leagues, but many of us play in leagues that require 2 QBs. In that case, having a guy that's locked up his job and puts up 200 and a score or two consistently is very desirable. There really aren't that many QBs who you know will continue to be the starter for their team. I think Orton is in that group now and I'd love to have him, but his owner won't be moving him in my league because he knows how important it is to have a guy with a job.

The dynamic is definitely different in a 2QB league, but in a 1QB league, I don't view Orton as anything more than a fringe asset. His upside, in my opinion, is the QB8-12 range. QB is a lot like TE in that... guys in the 8-12 range simply aren't that valuable. Either you have a stud, or you have someone in that big nebulous 6-16 range that generally has very little separating them. Who you have in that mass doesn't really matter. And if you don't have anyone in that mass, then someone in that mass is always available on the cheap. Kyle Orton's upside is the kind of player who, if you don't have him on your team, is really easy to cheaply acquire a reasonable facsimile. Guys like Chad Pennington or Matt Hasselbeck or J.T. O'Sullivan can always be had pretty cheaply. So if I don't think a QB can be a Peyton Manning / Tom Brady / Drew Brees type guy, then I don't lose much sleep over him one way or another. Orton's the kind of guy who is a dime a dozen. It's nice to have one of those types of guys on your roster, but which one doesn't make a whole lot of difference to me.The other big downside to Orton is that I don't think he has any long-term job stability. Are you willing to bet that he's still the starting QB for his team 3 years from now? Because I sure as hell am not. I'm not even willing to bet he's still starting in the league ANYWHERE 3 years from now. He doesn't have great upside, he doesn't have great security, he's just not a great dynasty prospect. He's the kind of guy you don't want if you're building for the future, because you don't know if he has a future... and he's the kind of guy you don't want if you're building for the present, because do you honestly think you're winning a championship while starting Kyle Orton? His upside is a backup spot on a contender's roster.

My sentiments exactly. Very well said.

 

[EBF]

Time to bump up Trent Edwards. I know it's convenient to hype someone after a brilliant game, but I've always been a fan. I have a Roethlisberger/Edwards combination on about half of my dynasty teams. The fact that Ben is no longer an automatic start over Trent when I submit my lineup each week tells me how far he's come. I wouldn't trade him for Garrard, Schaub, Cambpell, Warner, or Eli. I don't think I'd trade him for Ryan either. I've been very impressed with Ryan's rookie season, but he's still just a prospect whereas Edwards has blossomed into an elite franchise QB right before our eyes. Strictly in NFL terms, he could be very good for a very long time.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Time to bump up Trent Edwards. I know it's convenient to hype someone after a brilliant game, but I've always been a fan. I have a Roethlisberger/Edwards combination on about half of my dynasty teams. The fact that Ben is no longer an automatic start over Trent when I submit my lineup each week tells me how far he's come. I wouldn't trade him for Garrard, Schaub, Cambpell, Warner, or Eli. I don't think I'd trade him for Ryan either. I've been very impressed with Ryan's rookie season, but he's still just a prospect whereas Edwards has blossomed into an elite franchise QB right before our eyes. Strictly in NFL terms, he could be very good for a very long time.

He's a bump. I wouldn't trade Warner or Schaub for him, but I would trade the rest of that crowd for him. Matt Ryan is interesting, but I agree with your logic.Edit to add: I like Schaub better as a fantasy QB in his offense, but I like Edwards better as an NFL QB. I worry about him being a significantly better NFL player than fantasy player. He's not going to get you 300 yards and multiple TDs very often.I've seen Big Ben's role in the Steelers offense compared to Troy Aikman as a pedestrian fantasy QB yet a HOF-caliber NFL QB. I actually think Trent Edwards is much more similar to Troy Aikman as an NFL and fantasy QB than Roethlisberger is. I think Roethlisberger is an original.

 

[EBF]

I've seen Big Ben's role in the Steelers offense compared to Troy Aikman as a pedestrian fantasy QB yet a HOF-caliber NFL QB. I actually think Trent Edwards is much more similar to Troy Aikman as an NFL and fantasy QB than Roethlisberger is. I think Roethlisberger is an original.

I'll buy that. Edwards is more of a dink-and-dunker whereas Roethlisberger is liable to throw a 50 yard TD at any point in the game. But if you look at yards per attempt and QB rating, Edwards is already a lot further along than where Aikman was at this point in his development.Aikman was a winning QB, but you wouldn't know it by looking at his stats. They're not very good at all. I see Edwards as being closer to Hasselbeck in terms of FF value.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I've seen Big Ben's role in the Steelers offense compared to Troy Aikman as a pedestrian fantasy QB yet a HOF-caliber NFL QB. I actually think Trent Edwards is much more similar to Troy Aikman as an NFL and fantasy QB than Roethlisberger is. I think Roethlisberger is an original.

I'll buy that. Edwards is more of a dink-and-dunker whereas Roethlisberger is liable to throw a 50 yard TD at any point in the game. But if you look at yards per attempt and QB rating, Edwards is already a lot further along than where Aikman was at this point in his development.Aikman was a winning QB, but you wouldn't know it by looking at his stats. They're not very good at all. I see Edwards as being closer to Hasselbeck in terms of FF value.

I was thinking more along the lines of Aikman being a smart, efficient QB who always took what was given to him with a strong rushing game and played to win without worrying about stats. Aikman had a 5-6 year window where he always won, was one of the most accurate QBs in the league, but he just didn't throw many TD passes . . . nor for impressive yardage. That's where I see Edwards' career heading. Hasselbeck had the advantage of Holmgren's passing offenses. I don't see Edwards going that direction, but it's still awfully early in his career. Hey, our boy Lee Evans is looking good this year . . . even with double coverage on almost every passing play.

 

[EBF]

Hey, our boy Lee Evans is looking good this year . . . even with double coverage on almost every passing play.

Yea, he always had a lot of ability. He was a total monster at Wisconsin. Very low risk prospect.

 

[SSOG]

Hey, our boy Lee Evans is looking good this year . . . even with double coverage on almost every passing play.

Evans has always been one of my guys, ever since his rookie year. He's always been able to handle any coverages thrown his way, it's just a matter of finding a QB that could get him the ball. He's one of the top 10 receivers in the league, imo. No question about it. There are just so many different ways he can beat you.

 

[rockalum]

Time to bump up Trent Edwards. I know it's convenient to hype someone after a brilliant game, but I've always been a fan. I have a Roethlisberger/Edwards combination on about half of my dynasty teams. The fact that Ben is no longer an automatic start over Trent when I submit my lineup each week tells me how far he's come. I wouldn't trade him for Garrard, Schaub, Cambpell, Warner, or Eli. I don't think I'd trade him for Ryan either. I've been very impressed with Ryan's rookie season, but he's still just a prospect whereas Edwards has blossomed into an elite franchise QB right before our eyes. Strictly in NFL terms, he could be very good for a very long time.

orton is probably a better value right now than edwards. i like edwards as a player a lot, but there's no way i wouldn't trade him for schaub. its like others have said: edwards is going to be a winning NFL qb, but fantasy value is about the offense your team runs. schaub will always be in a pass-happy offense as long as kubiak is the coach. the bills are built around their defense and running the ball.

 

[stevegamer]

The other big downside to Orton is that I don't think he has any long-term job stability. Are you willing to bet that he's still the starting QB for his team 3 years from now? Because I sure as hell am not. I'm not even willing to bet he's still starting in the league ANYWHERE 3 years from now. He doesn't have great upside, he doesn't have great security, he's just not a great dynasty prospect. He's the kind of guy you don't want if you're building for the future, because you don't know if he has a future... and he's the kind of guy you don't want if you're building for the present, because do you honestly think you're winning a championship while starting Kyle Orton? His upside is a backup spot on a contender's roster.

I think I'd take that bet, actually. Right now, the Bears offense is performing pretty well with a whole lot of players who wren't thought to be much good, and the two guys who are peroming well, seem to be not thought very highly of for dynasty in this thread: Forte & Orton. Stepping back, one needs to realize that if initial perceived talent level was the major driving force behing the Bears decision, we'd have Grossman & Benson in the backfield, and we don't. While Benson had some other baggage that got him out of town, Grossman has none. Those 2 were supposed to be the new backfield combination. It's fairly widely agreed that the Bears have needs on the OL & at WR. If I were them, I wouldn't be trying to fix things that don't seem to be broken. Sure, they might be able to upgrade the QB & RB play, but right now Forte & Orton are playing very well, and are on cheap contracts.

Right now, Kyle Orton is the #9 QB with subpar WR & OL. If he finishes there, then I'd say he has a legitimate chance to be a top 5 QB, because we don't know exactly what he's capable of - he's only 26. Is it likely? No, the Bears MO has never really been a lot of passing, but you never know - strange things happen. I do think Orton's a better prospect in start 2 QB leagues, but I'd say he should have solid value there.

I've seen a lot of discussion about Forte not being an elite back, and maybe he's not, but he's playing well enough to be a RB1. And the Bears do have a MO of liking to run, and he's a 3-down back. I really like him in dynasty - admittedly I'm an owner who "got stuck" with him as the guy who dropped to me, and I needed a RB.

 

[Short Corner]

Just an observation... I think Orton should be above Kolb due to McNabb's stellar play and I don't Kolb getting a chance ANY time soon. Also, over Henne as I just think Orton is playing good and I don't feel Henne deserves a higher rank until he does something. Finally, I feel Orton is playing good enough and developing pretty nice to be ranked over Leinart who hasn't shown much of anything.

I don't think Orton is some incredible awesome player, but he is showing that he is improving and not just managing the game, but actually throwing well. I saw a couple Bears games and was actually impressed with his throws.... I just feel he is more than a stop gap right now. I have no proof, but since we're trying to get ahead of the curve, I feel in my eyes he is worth a higher rank than those other guys even in a Dynasty format.

I agree. Orton is making some real PRO throws these days and he's posting 60% completion and 7 ypa with absolute dreck at WR. That's a far cry from the 56.5% we saw from Derrick Anderson, who constantly needed Edwards and Winslow to bail him out with sick adjustments on his inaccurate passes. I see Orton as a clear long term answer for a team that has a habit of not bringing in competition at QB. If Davis or Olsen develops, he's only going to get better.

Sell high!

lolwell I am quite sure he doesn't have the value to sell right now as most would agree with you. I am going ou ton a limb here with my personal (thereby most likely wrong) observation. I think he has the opportunity to keep that job for a few years and maybe develop into a nice QB 2 for a 2 QB league. I can't trade him right now as no one else really has that opinion. So the offers you would get would be total garbage... Right now I am rotating Orten, Bulger, and JTO as my QB 2.

We'll see... I bet you two are right, but he isn't that bad in my opinion.

This is exactly what I have been thinking. Sell high? To whom? The guy in my league that loves Orton???? I think I'd have a hard time getting a 4th round rookie pick for him, even now. He's still a joke in just about every fantasy owners mind. His good play may totally be a mirage, and F&L and Borbely may be totally correct that Orton will fall back into poor QB play. Its likely actually.

I respect the opinions of both F&L and Borbely very much, but just don't see how selling a guy that is performing well right now for next to nothing is a good idea.

I'd sell him to benm3218 and valhallan.I'm not saying sell just to sell. But you're right that I am saying his recent (relatively) good play is more of a mirage than a harbinger of good things to come. Sure, hang on to him if you can't get anything for him. I'd have tried to package him with another player coming off that Lions game . . . or maybe try to get a draft pick for him. He's not a guy I'd be looking to keep going into next season.

Obviously he's not going to be a cornerstone QB1 in standard start 1 leagues, but many of us play in leagues that require 2 QBs. In that case, having a guy that's locked up his job and puts up 200 and a score or two consistently is very desirable. There really aren't that many QBs who you know will continue to be the starter for their team. I think Orton is in that group now and I'd love to have him, but his owner won't be moving him in my league because he knows how important it is to have a guy with a job.

Orten isn't as bad as alot of you think.... He played pretty good again today....

Studs win championships. Orton will never be a QB1 in my opinion, let alone a stud. Backup fantasy QBs are a dime a dozen. Orton's value will never be this high and unless I was a contender and had to play Orton because of my starter being hurt, I would be selling as fast as I can type this comment. I simply think he is outplaying his talent level. Those are the players I want to sell when their value peaks.

I'll take 3-4 guys like Orton at QB and take the studs at RB/WR/TE. Let someone else overpay for the over rated QB "studs".

 

[benm3218]

there is something to be said for having 4 starters in a start 2 QB league. I play in a start 2 QB 10 man league so thats 20 starters gone at the QB spot. we can have 4 on our team. So with a guy like Orton being a very low priced QB in a salary cap dynasty league he has significant value in my opinion. I can rotate the 4 guys based on match-ups and play the hot hand etc. meanwhile his trade value is still too low to get anything for him that I would want.... It is in my opinion a "hold" time period. If he keeps playing this good then at some point this year someone elses QB will be hurt and then I may get more for him. For now, I can't trade a good QB2 for a junky flex spot. In the future maybe, but right now the other owners needs are not that pressing.

Also, there is the possibility that he performs like he is and continues to be a solid QB2 while never getting credit for it. In either case I definitely don't think now is a "sell" time for Orton. I would hold him until someone came to me with an offer. He has more value than I can get by just floating out offers for average flex guys etc... "hold" if you own him - IMO.

I also want to be clear, I don't think Orten is some great QB just discovered. I don't see him as a top QB at all.... I only started talking about him because I thought he warranted being higher than a few he is below... I don't want you guys thinking that I am crazy enough to consider Orton a "stud QB". I just think he is better than he is getting credit for right now.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

there is something to be said for having 4 starters in a start 2 QB league. I play in a start 2 QB 10 man league so thats 20 starters gone at the QB spot. we can have 4 on our team. So with a guy like Orton being a very low priced QB in a salary cap dynasty league he has significant value in my opinion. I can rotate the 4 guys based on match-ups and play the hot hand etc. meanwhile his trade value is still too low to get anything for him that I would want.... It is in my opinion a "hold" time period. If he keeps playing this good then at some point this year someone elses QB will be hurt and then I may get more for him. For now, I can't trade a good QB2 for a junky flex spot. In the future maybe, but right now the other owners needs are not that pressing.Also, there is the possibility that he performs like he is and continues to be a solid QB2 while never getting credit for it. In either case I definitely don't think now is a "sell" time for Orton. I would hold him until someone came to me with an offer. He has more value than I can get by just floating out offers for average flex guys etc... "hold" if you own him - IMO.I also want to be clear, I don't think Orten is some great QB just discovered. I don't see him as a top QB at all.... I only started talking about him because I thought he warranted being higher than a few he is below... I don't want you guys thinking that I am crazy enough to consider Orton a "stud QB". I just think he is better than he is getting credit for right now.

In a league that starts 2 QBs, Orton is a hold. That is a different animal than a standard league. Pretty much any starting QB with little or no competition is a hold.

 

[valhallan]

F&L - do you think Greg Jones could take over Taylor's role in the coming weeks? Is there any upside with him as head #2 in the 2-headed JAX attack?

No, I can't see that happening. I'd be surprised if Greg Jones ever has any real value in the future.

Fair enough, he's a bottom of the barrel guy right now. I'm just having trouble wrapping my mind around the contract they gave him this off-season.

 

[valhallan]

Obviously he's not going to be a cornerstone QB1 in standard start 1 leagues, but many of us play in leagues that require 2 QBs. In that case, having a guy that's locked up his job and puts up 200 and a score or two consistently is very desirable. There really aren't that many QBs who you know will continue to be the starter for their team. I think Orton is in that group now and I'd love to have him, but his owner won't be moving him in my league because he knows how important it is to have a guy with a job.

The dynamic is definitely different in a 2QB league, but in a 1QB league, I don't view Orton as anything more than a fringe asset. His upside, in my opinion, is the QB8-12 range. QB is a lot like TE in that... guys in the 8-12 range simply aren't that valuable. Either you have a stud, or you have someone in that big nebulous 6-16 range that generally has very little separating them. Who you have in that mass doesn't really matter. And if you don't have anyone in that mass, then someone in that mass is always available on the cheap. Kyle Orton's upside is the kind of player who, if you don't have him on your team, is really easy to cheaply acquire a reasonable facsimile. Guys like Chad Pennington or Matt Hasselbeck or J.T. O'Sullivan can always be had pretty cheaply. So if I don't think a QB can be a Peyton Manning / Tom Brady / Drew Brees type guy, then I don't lose much sleep over him one way or another. Orton's the kind of guy who is a dime a dozen. It's nice to have one of those types of guys on your roster, but which one doesn't make a whole lot of difference to me.

I don't think that statement is much different than "obviously he's not going to be a cornerstone QB1 in standard start 1 leagues." I've said already that I'm talking about liking him as a safe QB2 in start 2 leagues and it appears benm is saying the same thing. I'm struggling to understand why several of you feel the need to expose the golden nugget of "studs win championships" to us when we're absolutely not characterizing Orton as anything more than a safe mid-range starter who's showing enough to be more valuable in some leagues than he was ever considered to be.

The other big downside to Orton is that I don't think he has any long-term job stability. Are you willing to bet that he's still the starting QB for his team 3 years from now? Because I sure as hell am not. I'm not even willing to bet he's still starting in the league ANYWHERE 3 years from now. He doesn't have great upside, he doesn't have great security, he's just not a great dynasty prospect. He's the kind of guy you don't want if you're building for the future, because you don't know if he has a future... and he's the kind of guy you don't want if you're building for the present, because do you honestly think you're winning a championship while starting Kyle Orton? His upside is a backup spot on a contender's roster.

Honestly, are you watching him play? I just don't understand how you can think he doesn't have a future if you've watched his last few games. The guy is in charge on the field and he's showing he can make the tough throws. Poise under pressure, accuracy, leadership... all of those qualities we've been tossing around here lately can been applied to Orton's performance over the last several weeks. (So we don't get lost here, once again, I don't think he's Peyton Manning.) Besides, this is the Bears. We haven't seen a quarterback make plays in that uniform since Clinton's first term. They don't draft top QBs and they don't sign free agents. How could this job not be Orton's next year?

 

[valhallan]

Just for illustrative purposes, let's go over all of the safe QBs in the league. I'm talking about guys who are entrenched as their team's starter for the foreseeable future, say 3 years.

Absolutely safe:

Romo

Cutler

P.Mannning

Brady

Brees

E.Manning

McNabb

Roethlisberger

Rivers

Presumably safe:

Rodgers

Schaub

Ryan

Edwards

Palmer

Delhomme

Garrard

Possibly safe:

Flacco

Orton

Hasselbeck

Bulger

Campbell

That's 9 guys you can own and feel absolutely confident you have a franchise player for the next few years, 7 that are close to that level, and 5 that have a chance to get there. That's only 21 players. In a start 2 league with 12 teams, at least 3 guys are going to be cycling through the Thigpens, Russells, and Frerottes of the world. And further, this list looks totally different than it would have just two years ago. So to me, with the way Orton looks on the field, his respectable numbers with a host of Sean Dawkins all-stars around him, his age (26) and the Bears history of passing on top rookie quarterbacks, I'll take him on my team and gladly enjoy the stability and flexibility to waste fewer roster spots on projects like Stanton, Russell, and Leinart.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

First, I'd like to thank F&L for all the hard work in maintaining the dynasty rankings. It's an extremely useful tool to use as I'm often guilty of over-valuing my own players!

I'm curious what the Dynasty Community's thoughts are regarding Torry Holt and Donnie Avery. Will a young Avery be able to extend Holt's fantasy producing career or will Avery be the Greg Jennings to Donald Driver and quickly become the Rams #1 fantasy WR and phase my guy Holt out altogether? I'm guessing the latter, but I haven't seen enough and was hoping to drum up some quality opinions. Big changes coming in Holt/Avery rankings F&L or still too early?

 

[jdoggydogg]

What's the board's opinion regarding Vincent Jackson as a dynasty prospect?

 

[SSOG]

Right now, Kyle Orton is the #9 QB with subpar WR & OL. If he finishes there, then I'd say he has a legitimate chance to be a top 5 QB, because we don't know exactly what he's capable of - he's only 26. Is it likely? No, the Bears MO has never really been a lot of passing, but you never know - strange things happen. I do think Orton's a better prospect in start 2 QB leagues, but I'd say he should have solid value there.

Some people will project by taking current numbers, adding upgrades/downgrades, and seeing the end result. That's what this is- Orton's #9, give him some decent WRs, lo and behold he's top 5. Personally, I prefer projecting based on talent and situation. I don't think the Bears passing offense is likely to be a top-5 situation any time soon. I don't think Orton is likely to be a top-5 talent any time soon. Remember, there are the Cutler, Romo, Roethlisberger, Brees, Manning, and Brady's of the world out there already, so it's looking like open spots in the top 5 are going to be few and far between in coming years. I don't think Orton's got the chops to make the jump.Part of it, too, gets back to a study I did on how quickly QBs develop. In any given year, look at the top 10 fantasy QBs, and an OVERWHELMING majority of them will have cracked the top 10 by their second season as a starter, or third year overall, whichever comes first. We're talking about a consistent 80% here. There are always exceptions to the rule (Drew Brees being the big one right now), but I firmly believe that strong fantasy QBs will have demonstrated that they're strong fantasy QBs by the end of their third season in the league. Splits happen, and Orton might be showing well right now, but my default position on him is going to remain skeptical until he shows me more than a good 3-4 game stretch. I mean, does anyone still remember Grossman's 5-game stretch to start 2006?I'm going to stick with my current assessment of Orton. His upside is QB2 on a championship contender.

 

[SSOG]

Honestly, are you watching him play? I just don't understand how you can think he doesn't have a future if you've watched his last few games. The guy is in charge on the field and he's showing he can make the tough throws. Poise under pressure, accuracy, leadership... all of those qualities we've been tossing around here lately can been applied to Orton's performance over the last several weeks. (So we don't get lost here, once again, I don't think he's Peyton Manning.) Besides, this is the Bears. We haven't seen a quarterback make plays in that uniform since Clinton's first term. They don't draft top QBs and they don't sign free agents. How could this job not be Orton's next year?

I'm not talking about next year, I'm talking about 3 years from now. Things change INCREDIBLY quickly in the NFL- a 3-year span is pratically AGES. Consider- in 2002, Drew Bledsoe was assaulting Dan Marino's records for the Bills. 3 years later, he was run out of town and keeping the seat warm for Romo in Big D. And Kyle Orton is no Drew Bledsoe. Heck, I don't even think he's as good as Jake Plummer (who was a tremendously underrated QB). In 2005, Plummer was a pro bowler who led his team to a 13-3 record and a home game in the AFCCG. 3 years later, his rights are owned by the Bucs while he's playing competitive handball and his replacement in Denver is an MVP candidate.3 years is an obscene amount of time in NFL terms.

 

[valhallan]

Honestly, are you watching him play? I just don't understand how you can think he doesn't have a future if you've watched his last few games. The guy is in charge on the field and he's showing he can make the tough throws. Poise under pressure, accuracy, leadership... all of those qualities we've been tossing around here lately can been applied to Orton's performance over the last several weeks. (So we don't get lost here, once again, I don't think he's Peyton Manning.) Besides, this is the Bears. We haven't seen a quarterback make plays in that uniform since Clinton's first term. They don't draft top QBs and they don't sign free agents. How could this job not be Orton's next year?

I'm not talking about next year, I'm talking about 3 years from now. Things change INCREDIBLY quickly in the NFL- a 3-year span is pratically AGES. Consider- in 2002, Drew Bledsoe was assaulting Dan Marino's records for the Bills. 3 years later, he was run out of town and keeping the seat warm for Romo in Big D. And Kyle Orton is no Drew Bledsoe. Heck, I don't even think he's as good as Jake Plummer (who was a tremendously underrated QB). In 2005, Plummer was a pro bowler who led his team to a 13-3 record and a home game in the AFCCG. 3 years later, his rights are owned by the Bucs while he's playing competitive handball and his replacement in Denver is an MVP candidate.3 years is an obscene amount of time in NFL terms.

Ok, so are you watching him play or not? And further, are you reading this thread? In the post immediately after the one you just quoted, I went down a list of guys with a 3-year window in mind and only came up with 9 that appear to be safe bets to stay relevant in said time frame. I even said "this list looks totally different than it would have just two years ago." So where's the disagreement here?

 

[benm3218]

Honestly, are you watching him play? I just don't understand how you can think he doesn't have a future if you've watched his last few games. The guy is in charge on the field and he's showing he can make the tough throws. Poise under pressure, accuracy, leadership... all of those qualities we've been tossing around here lately can been applied to Orton's performance over the last several weeks. (So we don't get lost here, once again, I don't think he's Peyton Manning.) Besides, this is the Bears. We haven't seen a quarterback make plays in that uniform since Clinton's first term. They don't draft top QBs and they don't sign free agents. How could this job not be Orton's next year?

I'm not talking about next year, I'm talking about 3 years from now. Things change INCREDIBLY quickly in the NFL- a 3-year span is pratically AGES. Consider- in 2002, Drew Bledsoe was assaulting Dan Marino's records for the Bills. 3 years later, he was run out of town and keeping the seat warm for Romo in Big D. And Kyle Orton is no Drew Bledsoe. Heck, I don't even think he's as good as Jake Plummer (who was a tremendously underrated QB). In 2005, Plummer was a pro bowler who led his team to a 13-3 record and a home game in the AFCCG. 3 years later, his rights are owned by the Bucs while he's playing competitive handball and his replacement in Denver is an MVP candidate.3 years is an obscene amount of time in NFL terms.

Don't try to get all intelligent and logical on me! You keep your filthy facts to yourself!

 

[valhallan]

I mean, does anyone still remember Grossman's 5-game stretch to start 2006?

It was only a matter of time before this came up. Yes, I remember that stretch. I remember Grossman looking as inconsistent and jittery as he always had and a guy named Bernard Berrian that kept taking catches to the house. Orton doesn't play like Grossman and there's no Berrian on this team to juice his stats.

 

[Tybeeman]

What's the board's opinion regarding Vincent Jackson as a dynasty prospect?

 

[SSOG]

Honestly, are you watching him play? I just don't understand how you can think he doesn't have a future if you've watched his last few games. The guy is in charge on the field and he's showing he can make the tough throws. Poise under pressure, accuracy, leadership... all of those qualities we've been tossing around here lately can been applied to Orton's performance over the last several weeks. (So we don't get lost here, once again, I don't think he's Peyton Manning.) Besides, this is the Bears. We haven't seen a quarterback make plays in that uniform since Clinton's first term. They don't draft top QBs and they don't sign free agents. How could this job not be Orton's next year?

I'm not talking about next year, I'm talking about 3 years from now. Things change INCREDIBLY quickly in the NFL- a 3-year span is pratically AGES. Consider- in 2002, Drew Bledsoe was assaulting Dan Marino's records for the Bills. 3 years later, he was run out of town and keeping the seat warm for Romo in Big D. And Kyle Orton is no Drew Bledsoe. Heck, I don't even think he's as good as Jake Plummer (who was a tremendously underrated QB). In 2005, Plummer was a pro bowler who led his team to a 13-3 record and a home game in the AFCCG. 3 years later, his rights are owned by the Bucs while he's playing competitive handball and his replacement in Denver is an MVP candidate.3 years is an obscene amount of time in NFL terms.

Ok, so are you watching him play or not? And further, are you reading this thread? In the post immediately after the one you just quoted, I went down a list of guys with a 3-year window in mind and only came up with 9 that appear to be safe bets to stay relevant in said time frame. I even said "this list looks totally different than it would have just two years ago." So where's the disagreement here?

I haven't seen him play a lot. I have been reading the thread, though. I saw the post in question- the post where you listed 16 QBs who were more likely to still be starting 3 years from now than Kyle Orton. That's half the league in NFL terms, and more than enough to go around in fantasy terms. I didn't address that post because I thought it made my case more than it made yours.

 

[valhallan]

Honestly, are you watching him play? I just don't understand how you can think he doesn't have a future if you've watched his last few games. The guy is in charge on the field and he's showing he can make the tough throws. Poise under pressure, accuracy, leadership... all of those qualities we've been tossing around here lately can been applied to Orton's performance over the last several weeks. (So we don't get lost here, once again, I don't think he's Peyton Manning.) Besides, this is the Bears. We haven't seen a quarterback make plays in that uniform since Clinton's first term. They don't draft top QBs and they don't sign free agents. How could this job not be Orton's next year?

I'm not talking about next year, I'm talking about 3 years from now. Things change INCREDIBLY quickly in the NFL- a 3-year span is pratically AGES. Consider- in 2002, Drew Bledsoe was assaulting Dan Marino's records for the Bills. 3 years later, he was run out of town and keeping the seat warm for Romo in Big D. And Kyle Orton is no Drew Bledsoe. Heck, I don't even think he's as good as Jake Plummer (who was a tremendously underrated QB). In 2005, Plummer was a pro bowler who led his team to a 13-3 record and a home game in the AFCCG. 3 years later, his rights are owned by the Bucs while he's playing competitive handball and his replacement in Denver is an MVP candidate.3 years is an obscene amount of time in NFL terms.

Ok, so are you watching him play or not? And further, are you reading this thread? In the post immediately after the one you just quoted, I went down a list of guys with a 3-year window in mind and only came up with 9 that appear to be safe bets to stay relevant in said time frame. I even said "this list looks totally different than it would have just two years ago." So where's the disagreement here?

I haven't seen him play a lot. I have been reading the thread, though. I saw the post in question- the post where you listed 16 QBs who were more likely to still be starting 3 years from now than Kyle Orton. That's half the league in NFL terms, and more than enough to go around in fantasy terms. I didn't address that post because I thought it made my case more than it made yours.

Not even close. But clearly you don't play in 2 QB leagues and clearly you have very little visual exposure to Orton. So, I can see we're not going to get anywhere by continuing the discussion.

 

[831hoops]

Honestly, are you watching him play? I just don't understand how you can think he doesn't have a future if you've watched his last few games. The guy is in charge on the field and he's showing he can make the tough throws. Poise under pressure, accuracy, leadership... all of those qualities we've been tossing around here lately can been applied to Orton's performance over the last several weeks. (So we don't get lost here, once again, I don't think he's Peyton Manning.) Besides, this is the Bears. We haven't seen a quarterback make plays in that uniform since Clinton's first term. They don't draft top QBs and they don't sign free agents. How could this job not be Orton's next year?

I'm not talking about next year, I'm talking about 3 years from now. Things change INCREDIBLY quickly in the NFL- a 3-year span is pratically AGES. Consider- in 2002, Drew Bledsoe was assaulting Dan Marino's records for the Bills. 3 years later, he was run out of town and keeping the seat warm for Romo in Big D. And Kyle Orton is no Drew Bledsoe. Heck, I don't even think he's as good as Jake Plummer (who was a tremendously underrated QB). In 2005, Plummer was a pro bowler who led his team to a 13-3 record and a home game in the AFCCG. 3 years later, his rights are owned by the Bucs while he's playing competitive handball and his replacement in Denver is an MVP candidate.3 years is an obscene amount of time in NFL terms.

Ok, so are you watching him play or not? And further, are you reading this thread? In the post immediately after the one you just quoted, I went down a list of guys with a 3-year window in mind and only came up with 9 that appear to be safe bets to stay relevant in said time frame. I even said "this list looks totally different than it would have just two years ago." So where's the disagreement here?

I haven't seen him play a lot. I have been reading the thread, though. I saw the post in question- the post where you listed 16 QBs who were more likely to still be starting 3 years from now than Kyle Orton. That's half the league in NFL terms, and more than enough to go around in fantasy terms. I didn't address that post because I thought it made my case more than it made yours.

And how many of those guys were where they are on that list 3 years ago? I am not saying he will be in that top tier, but no way am I ruling it out like some people. Most people that have him rostered in dynasty leagues got him as their QB3 (I got him as my QB4) and he has already exceeded those expectations. If I can any kind of value in a trade of course I am going to consider it, but no way am I cutting him loose for a 3rd round rookie pick.

 

[Burning Sensation]

What's the board's opinion regarding Vincent Jackson as a dynasty prospect?

I think his value is slightly inflated with Chambers out, but he may have earned a few more targets when Chambers comes back. With LT and the Chargers running game on the decline, and a good young Qb like Rivers, Jackson is a top 25 dynasty WR.

 

[Tybeeman]

What's the board's opinion regarding Vincent Jackson as a dynasty prospect?

I think his value is slightly inflated with Chambers out, but he may have earned a few more targets when Chambers comes back. With LT and the Chargers running game on the decline, and a good young Qb like Rivers, Jackson is a top 25 dynasty WR.

I agree. I think the guy is a beast, and could be a top 15-20 guy, as long as the Chargers offense continues to progress.

 

[Harjiran]

Matt Ryan is interesting, but I agree with your logic.

Can you expand your thoughts on Ryan? I've only been able to watch highlights but he seems poised in the pocket, a surprisingly adept "game manager" for a rookie. Now I'm hearing comparisons to Peyton Manning. What are people seeing in Ryan, specifically, that reminds them of Peyton? ATL appears to be a run-first offense -- does Ryan have enough weapons to be a true QB1 this season? What are his prospects down the road?This is a great thread that I've come to rely on, along with the Sons of the Tundra rankings, and I really appreciate the insights and opinions of F&L and others here. Thanks everybody!

 

[az_prof]

What's the board's opinion regarding Vincent Jackson as a dynasty prospect?

I think his value is slightly inflated with Chambers out, but he may have earned a few more targets when Chambers comes back. With LT and the Chargers running game on the decline, and a good young Qb like Rivers, Jackson is a top 25 dynasty WR.

I agree. I think the guy is a beast, and could be a top 15-20 guy, as long as the Chargers offense continues to progress.

What makes him better than Floyd, especially now that Floyd is starting? I like Floyd's size and supposedly (according to Chambers) he has the best hands on the team.

 

[az_prof]

Hey, our boy Lee Evans is looking good this year . . . even with double coverage on almost every passing play.

Evans has always been one of my guys, ever since his rookie year. He's always been able to handle any coverages thrown his way, it's just a matter of finding a QB that could get him the ball. He's one of the top 10 receivers in the league, imo. No question about it. There are just so many different ways he can beat you.

Agreed. He is a case study in how you have to stick with your evaluation of talent--lots of people gave up on him last year but there are not too many WRs who could have been successful with the revolving door at QB (and the inexperience and quality) and the rest of the team situation. Edwards is now developing into an average QB and now we are seeing the return of Evans.

 

[EBF]

Edwards is now developing into an average QB

Average?He's 2nd in the AFC in QB rating and 3rd in yards per attempt. His team is 5-1. I'd say he looks a little better than average.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

What makes him better than Floyd, especially now that Floyd is starting? I like Floyd's size and supposedly (according to Chambers) he has the best hands on the team.

Is this a serious question? :whoosh:

 

[stevegamer]

Right now, Kyle Orton is the #9 QB with subpar WR & OL. If he finishes there, then I'd say he has a legitimate chance to be a top 5 QB, because we don't know exactly what he's capable of - he's only 26. Is it likely? No, the Bears MO has never really been a lot of passing, but you never know - strange things happen. I do think Orton's a better prospect in start 2 QB leagues, but I'd say he should have solid value there.

Some people will project by taking current numbers, adding upgrades/downgrades, and seeing the end result. That's what this is- Orton's #9, give him some decent WRs, lo and behold he's top 5. Personally, I prefer projecting based on talent and situation. I don't think the Bears passing offense is likely to be a top-5 situation any time soon. I don't think Orton is likely to be a top-5 talent any time soon. Remember, there are the Cutler, Romo, Roethlisberger, Brees, Manning, and Brady's of the world out there already, so it's looking like open spots in the top 5 are going to be few and far between in coming years. I don't think Orton's got the chops to make the jump.Part of it, too, gets back to a study I did on how quickly QBs develop. In any given year, look at the top 10 fantasy QBs, and an OVERWHELMING majority of them will have cracked the top 10 by their second season as a starter, or third year overall, whichever comes first. We're talking about a consistent 80% here. There are always exceptions to the rule (Drew Brees being the big one right now), but I firmly believe that strong fantasy QBs will have demonstrated that they're strong fantasy QBs by the end of their third season in the league. Splits happen, and Orton might be showing well right now, but my default position on him is going to remain skeptical until he shows me more than a good 3-4 game stretch. I mean, does anyone still remember Grossman's 5-game stretch to start 2006?

I'm going to stick with my current assessment of Orton. His upside is QB2 on a championship contender.

I don't disagree with you that he's most likely a #2, but I'm curious: this is his second year as a starter, an 3rd year playing - he missed 2006. Sounds he like just misses the criteria. Is the study out on the forums somewhere?

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Hey, our boy Lee Evans is looking good this year . . . even with double coverage on almost every passing play.

Evans has always been one of my guys, ever since his rookie year. He's always been able to handle any coverages thrown his way, it's just a matter of finding a QB that could get him the ball. He's one of the top 10 receivers in the league, imo. No question about it. There are just so many different ways he can beat you.

Agreed. He is a case study in how you have to stick with your evaluation of talent--lots of people gave up on him last year but there are not too many WRs who could have been successful with the revolving door at QB (and the inexperience and quality) and the rest of the team situation. Edwards is now developing into an average QB and now we are seeing the return of Evans.

, especially the bolded part.

 

[Tau837]

Edwards is now developing into an average QB

Average?He's 2nd in the AFC in QB rating and 3rd in yards per attempt. His team is 5-1. I'd say he looks a little better than average.

EBF, are you talking NFL QB or fantasy QB? As an NFL QB, as of today he looks much better than average, although I doubt he will sustain his current performance through the entire season, and will probably slide back to the pack. As a fantasy QB, he has been average at best - his best ranking in my leagues as of now is 19th.

 

[Tau837]

I was thinking more along the lines of Aikman being a smart, efficient QB who always took what was given to him with a strong rushing game and played to win without worrying about stats. Aikman had a 5-6 year window where he always won, was one of the most accurate QBs in the league, but he just didn't throw many TD passes . . . nor for impressive yardage. That's where I see Edwards' career heading. Hasselbeck had the advantage of Holmgren's passing offenses. I don't see Edwards going that direction, but it's still awfully early in his career.