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QB Philip Rivers, RET (2 Viewers)

I agree there, I think Brady isn't a very good QB anymore either. Still great in some aspects, but just doesn't have the physical ability to be dominant anymore.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Rushing attempts: Chargers 366 (#28), Bucs 409 (#14)

Passing attempts: Rivers 591 (36.9 per game), Winston 626 (39.1 per game)

But don't let facts get in your way, carry on.
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That’s nuts - I wouldn’t have guessed considering how much the Bucs threw. I guess throwing 20 screens a game to his RBs skewed the stats a smidge huh?  Let me rephrase: if Rivers were on the Bucs where they threw to the running backs like 11 times all season, he probably would have thrown a lot more Ints. 

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
For me, yes and I'm not going to apologize for it - and 12 less interceptions is kind of a big deal.
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Yes, obviously the interceptions are a big deal. It is literally the only reason for this narrative. But, per PFR:

  • Brady had 118 bad throws (20.8% of his pass attempts, 4th highest in the league); Rivers had 88 (15.4%, 26th).
  • Rivers had 439 on target throws (76.7%, 10th); Brady had 419 (73.1%, 22nd).
  • And Rivers was not just checking down. His average depth of target was 8.5 (12th); Brady's was 7.6 (23rd).
So just comparing interception totals doesn't really do a good job of comparing their performances.

As has been pointed out, Rivers has always been a bit prone to interceptions. Certainly that is mostly his fault, but some of it also goes to coaching and pass blocking. And there is obviously luck involved sometimes. Off the top of my head, I know 1 of his interceptions was batted at the line and another was when Hunter Henry fell down coming out of his break. At least 4 others came in desperate end game scenarios, like 4th and 17, etc. In some of those situations, other QBs would take the checkdowns and let the clock expire, whereas Rivers is trying to make plays downfield. :shrug:  

IMO Rivers was very clearly better than Brady in 2019, and I see zero reason to believe he won't be better in 2020 if both of them are playing.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
That’s nuts - I wouldn’t have guessed considering how much the Bucs threw. I guess throwing 20 screens a game to his RBs skewed the stats a smidge huh?  Let me rephrase: if Rivers were on the Bucs where they threw to the running backs like 11 times all season, he probably would have thrown a lot more Ints. 
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Well, as long as we're going to talk about hypotheticals, I will disagree. If Rivers were on the Bucs last season instead of Winston, he would have had much better offensive coaching/playcalling, much better pass blocking, and at least slightly better targets. Given all that, I think he would have thrown many fewer interceptions.

And if he plays for Tampa in 2020, I think he will prove it.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Well, as long as we're going to talk about hypotheticals, I will disagree. If Rivers were on the Bucs last season instead of Winston, he would have had much better offensive coaching/playcalling, much better pass blocking, and at least slightly better targets. Given all that, I think he would have thrown many fewer interceptions.

And if he plays for Tampa in 2020, I think he will prove it.
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I’d be willing to bet he’ll be worse. Maybe time will tell if it comes to pass.

Still think TB is better off developing Winston. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I agree on Brady and said so as much in his thread. He's in decline but isn't "done" yet. On a good team he'll still win games. He doesn't move as well and his arm is weaker but he's still smart, tough and will find a way to move the ball. Put him on Indy behind a great o-line and with those weapons, they're a playoff team and a threat.

As for Rivers like I said, maybe I was just unfortunate enough to see him at his worst but he looked cooked to me towards the second half of last season. His arm looked weak and he was throwing the ball up as if he did not care where it ended up. He was never mobile but last season he crumbled instead of even trying to avoid the rush. I don't like to speak in absolutes about football so I won't say there's no chance of him bouncing back next season but I'd be surprised by it.
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Its unfortunate that Rivers had 2 bad games, in the Monday night game against the Chiefs, and the Thursday night game against the Raiders. He certainly had some f-it chuck it, but that seemed very o-line related. Like he knew he wasn't going to have time so he just winged it. Not saying that justifies it, but I do believe a change in scenery and a better o-line could certainly help. The way you described Brady would be how I'd describe Rivers as well, only with more recklessness. 

Just Win Baby said:
IMO Rivers was very clearly better than Brady in 2019, and I see zero reason to believe he won't be better in 2020 if both of them are playing.
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I agree with most of what you are saying, but I wouldn't go that far. Rivers weapons were superior to Brady's in every way. 

Ekeler>>>White

Allen>Edelman

Williams>Sanu

Henry>>Watson

Brady was forced to make a lot of bad throws, or else just do nothing at all, other than Edelman and White nobody could get open, and White, while a good pass catcher, isn't somebody who makes big plays after the catch often, or is a mismatch with defenders. He's more a good set of hands, who gets schemed open well. I'd call their 2019's pretty close, with maybe a slight edge to Brady, but neither played poorly, just below career norms, by a lot in Brady's case. I think both are still quality starting QB's.

I do agree if Rivers was on the Bucs he'd have been FAR better than Winston was. I think people don't realize how QB friendly Tampa's offense is, both before and with Arians. Winston never looked better than Fitzpatrick did there. Rivers would be a huge upgrade from Winston. 

 
Just Win Baby said:
Yes, obviously the interceptions are a big deal. It is literally the only reason for this narrative. But, per PFR:

  • Brady had 118 bad throws (20.8% of his pass attempts, 4th highest in the league); Rivers had 88 (15.4%, 26th).
  • Rivers had 439 on target throws (76.7%, 10th); Brady had 419 (73.1%, 22nd).
  • And Rivers was not just checking down. His average depth of target was 8.5 (12th); Brady's was 7.6 (23rd).
So just comparing interception totals doesn't really do a good job of comparing their performances.

As has been pointed out, Rivers has always been a bit prone to interceptions. Certainly that is mostly his fault, but some of it also goes to coaching and pass blocking. And there is obviously luck involved sometimes. Off the top of my head, I know 1 of his interceptions was batted at the line and another was when Hunter Henry fell down coming out of his break. At least 4 others came in desperate end game scenarios, like 4th and 17, etc. In some of those situations, other QBs would take the checkdowns and let the clock expire, whereas Rivers is trying to make plays downfield. :shrug:  

IMO Rivers was very clearly better than Brady in 2019, and I see zero reason to believe he won't be better in 2020 if both of them are playing.
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Well I don’t think Brady is all that good anymore either. He’s even older and is also in decline as I said. I just think he’s more capable of winning with a good team because he doesn’t turn the ball over like Rivers does. Neither can carry a team but at least Brady won’t lose his team games like Rivers did last season.

Anyway I’ve said all I’m interested in saying about it. Maybe Rivers makes me look foolish next season and is really good or maybe he looks even more done and people come around or they don’t and they keep making excuses for him. I’m not really invested in him or whatever team he ends up with so it doesn’t matter much to me.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
Yes, obviously the interceptions are a big deal. It is literally the only reason for this narrative. But, per PFR:

  • Brady had 118 bad throws (20.8% of his pass attempts, 4th highest in the league); Rivers had 88 (15.4%, 26th).
  • Rivers had 439 on target throws (76.7%, 10th); Brady had 419 (73.1%, 22nd).
  • And Rivers was not just checking down. His average depth of target was 8.5 (12th); Brady's was 7.6 (23rd).
So just comparing interception totals doesn't really do a good job of comparing their performances.

As has been pointed out, Rivers has always been a bit prone to interceptions. Certainly that is mostly his fault, but some of it also goes to coaching and pass blocking. And there is obviously luck involved sometimes. Off the top of my head, I know 1 of his interceptions was batted at the line and another was when Hunter Henry fell down coming out of his break. At least 4 others came in desperate end game scenarios, like 4th and 17, etc. In some of those situations, other QBs would take the checkdowns and let the clock expire, whereas Rivers is trying to make plays downfield. :shrug:  

IMO Rivers was very clearly better than Brady in 2019, and I see zero reason to believe he won't be better in 2020 if both of them are playing.
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Do they give awards for the taller midget?

 
Brady on the Chargers makes them an instant Super Bowl contender.

That running game and that defense with him managing the offense - watch out.

 
ChiefD said:
Brady on the Chargers makes them an instant Super Bowl contender.

That running game and that defense with him managing the offense - watch out.
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Agreed. Major issue with Chargers was an aging QB with no mobility. With Brady they'd be going to an even-older...

Oh wait a minute. Maybe I don't agree so much.

 
ChiefD said:
Brady on the Chargers makes them an instant Super Bowl contender.

That running game and that defense with him managing the offense - watch out.
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the defense isn't that good, the Linebackers pretty much stink, as does the interior Dline. Derwin James was hurt all year, he should rebound

No thanks on Brady

 
NFL Update‏ @MySportsUpdate 42s42 seconds ago

The #Chargers have "moved on" from Philip Rivers, per @JayGlazer. He'll be a free agent this offseason. ESPN reported last week that Rivers has moved "permanently" from San Diego to Florida.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
NFL Update‏ @MySportsUpdate 42s42 seconds ago

The #Chargers have "moved on" from Philip Rivers, per @JayGlazer. He'll be a free agent this offseason. ESPN reported last week that Rivers has moved "permanently" from San Diego to Florida.
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As a lifelong homer, I love the passion that Rivers brought.  But the Chargers found a way to lose way more often than they found a way to win with Rivers.  When he was good, he was great.  When he was bad, he was worse.  We obviously aren't heading into 2020 with Taylor and Stick as our top 2.  As much as I hate Brady, he would be a welcome addition.  He has no legs and no arm, but at least he knows it.  He takes what the D gives him, and he finds ways to win.  He can throw for 4500 without ever throwing a pass longer than 20 yards.

 
There's legit talent on that team though... if they get a decent QB in FA they'll be in the playoffs. Teddy wouldn't be bad in a short passing West Coast O with Ekeler, considering he's more risk-averse than Rivers.

Then again, they should be able to get a QB in the draft with the #6 pick. Their O-line is a mess though so who knows.

 
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Walking Boot said:
Do they sign Brady this week? Or wait until after the Super Bowl and then maybe near or after the draft?
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If the Chargers don't significantly upgrade their offensive line, Brady will not do well with them. As a Charger fan, they should avoid high priced QB free agents this year and do some rebuilding through the draft. Otherwise they'll be paying $20M + to a non-long term QB solution just to miss the playoffs again.

Put it another way - the Chargers finished last in their division and that wasn't really a fluke, and that wasn't all Rivers' fault either. I don't think playing musical QBs with the free agents available is the answer to their problems.

 
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IMO the fantasy stock goes down for all of the Chargers' primary fantasy skill players in 2020:

  • Allen - not by much, but down... should remain a target hog, but it will take time for him to build the chemistry he had with Rivers with another QB
  • Mike Williams - seriously doubt the new QB will be willing to target him nearly as much when he doesn't have separation (and he typically doesn't)
  • Henry (if re-signed) - depends on the QB, but more than likely down, since Rivers has been super TE friendly during his career
  • Ekeler - down, no way he approaches 92/993/8 receiving with a new QB
...and that is my take whether they sign Brady (which I very seriously doubt) or any other available veteran, roll with Tyrod, and/or draft a rookie.

(Ignoring Gordon since I assume the team will let him walk.)

 
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For Rivers, I'd like to see him go to a team that has a decent offensive line, just to see if he really does have anything left. I think he'd still be able to be effective in a situation like that.

Then again, in football, when the end comes it doesn't really waste any time. Very risky to pay Rivers. I wouldn't want him as anything more than a one year gamble.

 
With all the talk of Brady to the chargers I could see Rivers to the pats as more realistic. The hoodie loves vets and I imagine he thinks he could get the best out of someone like Rivers and Rivers would get a last chance at winning a ring.

 
voiceofunreason said:
With all the talk of Brady to the chargers I could see Rivers to the pats as more realistic. The hoodie loves vets and I imagine he thinks he could get the best out of someone like Rivers and Rivers would get a last chance at winning a ring.
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On the one hand, it would be very interesting to see. On the other hand, I never thought I would find myself rooting for the Pats...  :unsure:

 
Jay Glazer is pretty money and hard to doubt anything he says but fwiw in last hour or two both Rapaport and a Chargers beat writer named Daniel Popper have both said the Chargers have not made a decision yet.

Reading between the lines on  Ian and Popper are saying it sure sounds to me like Rivers is done with the Chargers, but they may not be done with him.

Rivers seems like the kind of guy who would just retire before he was forced to go back and play under a franchise tag but this does not sound like a mutual decision to part ways to me.

 
Just Win Baby said:
On the one hand, it would be very interesting to see. On the other hand, I never thought I would find myself rooting for the Pats...  :unsure:
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Are you more about rooting for a team because of a player over rooting for a team because it’s your favorite team?  Who is your favorite team?   Team > any player.

 
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JohnnyU said:
Are you more about rooting for a team because of a player over rooting for a team because it’s your favorite team?  Who is your favorite team?   Team > any player.
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I grew up in a state without a local team (NC - Panthers did not exist). I first adopted Seattle because Largent was my favorite player. But Rivers is my all-time favorite player in any sport, so when he was drafted by the Chargers, I adopted the Chargers as my favorite team, and I coincidentally later moved to San Diego for 4+ years, which was great. Fortunately, I moved back to VA just before the move to LA.

I like many of the players on the Chargers in addition to Rivers, but I despise the owner. I also think the GM is one of the worst in the NFL, and the team has had a series of coaches (Norv, McCoy, and Lynn) who have collectively been awful. The GM/head coach issues trace back to the terrible ownership.

So, yeah, now that my favorite player is likely gone from the Chargers, my views on the owner, front office, and coaching are enough that I will adopt another team as my favorite. Probably back to Seattle, since I am also a huge fan of NC State alum Russell Wilson.

Team > any player works fine for you and many others, no doubt. But it isn't something that has to apply to every pro sports fan, and I am an example of that. I have that level of commitment to my college sports teams (which is really unfortunate for me since I am a NC State fan...).

 
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Speaking Tuesday, FOX's Jay Glazer clarified his Monday comments on Philip Rivers, saying that while he believes Rivers will not be back with the team, he did not mean to officially report as such.

Basically, Glazer said he was taken out of context during his appearance on Colin Cowherd's show. Glazer is amongst the most error-free reporters in all of football, so he is worth taking at his word that it was not his intention to formally report that Rivers and the Bolts are done. ESPN's Eric Williams has also reported that "all options remain available" with regards to the Chargers and their longtime franchise player. Despite Glazer's clarification, all signs continue to point toward Rivers being done in Southern California.

SOURCE: Fernando Ramirez on Twitter

Jan 28, 2020, 4:11 PM ET
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Rotoworld:

The Chargers announced Philip Rivers will enter free agency.

"I've said before that Philip can still compete at a top-starter level and, in a perfect world, number 17 is your quarterback forever," GM Tom Telesco stated in his press release. "Obviously, we live in an imperfect world where the only constant is change." The Chargers have a lot of moving pieces to address this offseason, but Rivers was always expected to be on his way out given the circumstances. The veteran closes his 16-year tenure with the organization as the franchise's all-time leader in completions (4,908), passing yards (59,271), and passing touchdowns (397), having started every game for the Chargers since 2006. The Buccaneers and Colts have both popped up as potential landing spots for the 38-year-old signal-caller this offseason.

RELATED: 

Los Angeles Chargers

SOURCE: Los Angeles Chargers on Twitter

Feb 10, 2020, 1:03 PM ET
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GroveDiesel said:
Daniel Jeremiah mused that Rivers to the Colts would be a good match. If Rivers has anything left, I agree. Colts should be in a win now mode and do need an upgrade at QB. Could be worth the gamble for them to give him a 1 year deal. And with the Colts having a pretty good O-line, it may be a good match for Rivers as well.
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I believe that is where he’ll end up as well. 

 
ESPN's Jenna Laine reports the Buccaneers' interest in impending free agent Philip Rivers is "legitimate."

Laine's sources also confirmed interest in Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Tannehill, so perhaps the organization is simply kicking the tires on the market as a whole. The Bucs also conspicuously got closer looks at Utah State's Jordan Love and Oregon's Justin Herbert at the Senior Bowl. 38-year-old Rivers was initially linked to Tampa Bay after moving his family across the country to Florida, but there are clearly other factors linking the two sides together. The Colts are also expected to meet with Rivers at some point in the coming month.

SOURCE: Jenna Laine on Twitter

Feb 10, 2020, 2:14 PM ET
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Sneegor said:
Interesting, seems like Herbert could be a good fit
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Herbert would be an awful fit. His 2 biggest weaknesses are pocket presence, and accuracy under pressure. The Chargers are arguably the worst o-line in the NFL. Many better players/fits for them at #6.

 
Faust said:
Philip Rivers to be NFL free agent: Five best landing spots for longtime Chargers quarterback
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The Colts are a match made in heaven:

  1. 7th in rushing offense and 30th in passing offense.
  2. Brissett was one of the worst starting QBs in the league. Rivers would be an immediate significant upgrade.
  3. PFF graded their pass blocking as #13 in the league last season, compared to #31 for the Chargers.
  4. Defense was solid – PFF graded it as #12 last season, compared to #17 for the Chargers.
  5. Rivers obviously knows and is comfortable with Reich.
  6. IND has $86M in available 2020 cap space, and they could clear another $9M by releasing Brissett; they could release Brissett, sign Rivers, and still have $70M to spend to improve the roster for a Super Bowl shot.
I hope it happens.

 
Just Win Baby said:
IMO the fantasy stock goes down for all of the Chargers' primary fantasy skill players in 2020:

  • Allen - not by much, but down... should remain a target hog, but it will take time for him to build the chemistry he had with Rivers with another QB
  • Mike Williams - seriously doubt the new QB will be willing to target him nearly as much when he doesn't have separation (and he typically doesn't)
  • Henry (if re-signed) - depends on the QB, but more than likely down, since Rivers has been super TE friendly during his career
  • Ekeler - down, no way he approaches 92/993/8 receiving with a new QB
...and that is my take whether they sign Brady (which I very seriously doubt) or any other available veteran, roll with Tyrod, and/or draft a rookie.

(Ignoring Gordon since I assume the team will let him walk.)
Click to expand...
Seems appropriate to revisit this. Chargers fantasy owners beware.

 
Just Win Baby said:
The Colts are a match made in heaven:

  1. 7th in rushing offense and 30th in passing offense.
  2. Brissett was one of the worst starting QBs in the league. Rivers would be an immediate significant upgrade.
  3. PFF graded their pass blocking as #13 in the league last season, compared to #31 for the Chargers.
  4. Defense was solid – PFF graded it as #12 last season, compared to #17 for the Chargers.
  5. Rivers obviously knows and is comfortable with Reich.
  6. IND has $86M in available 2020 cap space, and they could clear another $9M by releasing Brissett; they could release Brissett, sign Rivers, and still have $70M to spend to improve the roster for a Super Bowl shot.
I hope it happens.
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makes too much sense to not happen....the on only thing holding it back would be phils family  on Florida...but not like he couldnt get a placein Indiana for two three years

 
Sneegor said:
It will be interesting to see if the Chargers get a rookie QB or bring in a veteran
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Not really. With the OL telesco has carefully crafted they may as well put a punt returner at QB.

It makes absolutely no sense so I fully expect the chargers to make a big push for Tom Brady. All those folks criticizing Rivers for throwing picks will rush to pat Brady on the back for checking down behind the LOS or throwing the ball away 9/10 pass attempts. What a disaster.

 
I have mixed feelings if Rivers goes to the Colts.  They could use a one year stop gap if they're unsuccessful in getting Tua or Herbert (not that I like Herbert all that much).

 
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 I will always cheer for Rivers, love his fire and passion, but it seems to me like Brady now, and Peyton before him, the cliff is already here...I wish he could have just retired a Charger...but this is the modern NFL business. 

 
Otis said:
Great news for Mike Williams. 
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I see it as exactly the opposite.

I think Williams has benefitted more from playing with Rivers than many people realize. Rivers has always been a QB who trusts his WRs to go up and make a play downfield, and he has consistently shown that trust with Williams. Unfortunately, that has hurt Rivers and the offense at times — per PFF, Rivers targeted Williams 85 times this season and threw 8 interceptions on those targets, by far the highest interception rate among all of his targets. When targeting Williams in 2019, PFF shows Rivers with a 67.8 passer rating, and Player Profiler shows him with a 64.1 rating. That’s… not good. That was the lowest rating by far among his primary targets.

Williams does not have great speed and struggles to get separation — this season, he ranked #105 in cushion and #106 in target separation, which means targeting him often means he has to win a contested catch to make the play. These rankings are worse than last season (#77 and #86, respectively), and he did play through an injury this season… but these rankings still were not impressive in either season. And he also seems to frequently be dealing with injuries.

He also had a fairly high drop rate this season. Different sources have different totals, but the link above says 7 drops and  a 7.8% drop rate.

I seriously doubt his new QB will be willing to target him as aggressively downfield as Rivers did. Not when Allen and Ekeler, and maybe Henry if re-signed, are getting better separation.

 
ffmail4me said:
 I will always cheer for Rivers, love his fire and passion, but it seems to me like Brady now, and Peyton before him, the cliff is already here...I wish he could have just retired a Charger...but this is the modern NFL business. 
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No one could convince Muhammad Ali not to fight Larry Holmes.

 
Just Win Baby said:
I see it as exactly the opposite.

I think Williams has benefitted more from playing with Rivers than many people realize. Rivers has always been a QB who trusts his WRs to go up and make a play downfield, and he has consistently shown that trust with Williams. Unfortunately, that has hurt Rivers and the offense at times — per PFF, Rivers targeted Williams 85 times this season and threw 8 interceptions on those targets, by far the highest interception rate among all of his targets. When targeting Williams in 2019, PFF shows Rivers with a 67.8 passer rating, and Player Profiler shows him with a 64.1 rating. That’s… not good. That was the lowest rating by far among his primary targets.

Williams does not have great speed and struggles to get separation — this season, he ranked #105 in cushion and #106 in target separation, which means targeting him often means he has to win a contested catch to make the play. These rankings are worse than last season (#77 and #86, respectively), and he did play through an injury this season… but these rankings still were not impressive in either season. And he also seems to frequently be dealing with injuries.

He also had a fairly high drop rate this season. Different sources have different totals, but the link above says 7 drops and  a 7.8% drop rate.

I seriously doubt his new QB will be willing to target him as aggressively downfield as Rivers did. Not when Allen and Ekeler, and maybe Henry if re-signed, are getting better separation.
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It's hard to speculate on the impact without knowing who his new QB will be obviously, but I think your bias for Rivers is showing again by automatically blaming Williams for Rivers' poor metrics while throwing to him.

I'm not 100% sure about these "stats", but their definitions say that "cushion" is the "average cushion afforded to the receiver by his assigned defender on each route run". To me that reads where the defender lines up at the start of a play, doesn't mean anything about "struggling to get separation". Likewise their definition of "target separation" is "A receiver's average yards of separation distance from the closest defense (sic) back at the moment the pass target arrives". Not having much separation when the pass target arrives could be the result of a poor throw, and there were many times last season where Rivers did just that (under threw deep balls allowing the defender to close, etc.). Williams' low catchable target rate and target accuracy also points at least some of the blame at Rivers.

 
humpback said:
It's hard to speculate on the impact without knowing who his new QB will be obviously, but I think your bias for Rivers is showing again by automatically blaming Williams for Rivers' poor metrics while throwing to him.

I'm not 100% sure about these "stats", but their definitions say that "cushion" is the "average cushion afforded to the receiver by his assigned defender on each route run". To me that reads where the defender lines up at the start of a play, doesn't mean anything about "struggling to get separation". Likewise their definition of "target separation" is "A receiver's average yards of separation distance from the closest defense (sic) back at the moment the pass target arrives". Not having much separation when the pass target arrives could be the result of a poor throw, and there were many times last season where Rivers did just that (under threw deep balls allowing the defender to close, etc.). Williams' low catchable target rate and target accuracy also points at least some of the blame at Rivers.
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I didn't blame Williams. My point is that Rivers - perhaps ill-advisedly - was regularly willing to target Williams when Williams wasn't open. I'm saying that most QBs won't do that, and, since Williams struggles to get separation, that implies to me that he won't get as many downfield targets.

 
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