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Will Jamal Lewis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter mlwinokur
- Start date
A couple of those *Sick* games should be re-classified.CIN - 22nd - 121 ypg allowed
DEN - 11th - 96 ypg - GREAT LB's
JAC - 5th - 85 ypg - very stout DL
STL - 13th - 100 ypg
MIA - 2nd - 71 ypg - Good backers can stop the run with no pass threat
SEA - 22nd - is much improved but showing signs of weakening
SF - 6th - 88 ypg - is playing the run quite well. Held Alexander in check on the road
CIN - 22nd - 121 ypg
OAK - 32nd - 165 ypg - WOW - Here's where Jamal makes up some ground
CLE - 21st - 119 ypg
SF & JAX are tougher than you're giving credit. But the OAK game may make up for all the others. 165 ypg allowed rushing? That's sad.
Edit to add: As a fellow Edge-Jamal owner, here's hopin' he makes it. Plus I've never been a big Dickerson fan anyway (either on the field with ther football or the sidelines with a miicrophone).
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yetiknight
Footballguy
I absolutely meant that Ray Lewis is the BEST. Their defense as a whole is very good and is capable of playing great because of him. That is no secret. They aren't where they were three years ago, but they have guys stepping up at other positions.I think Jamal Lewis should get alot of credit, but he is the second best player on his team. And if it wasn't for the defense, that pathetic excuse for a passing attack would bury his chances of being a top five running back let alone breaking any records.
Dave Dodson
Footballguy
On the surface, I can see why you make that statement. The thing that's really impossible to know is how good is Jamal Lewis? Ray Lewis has a number of high quality players around him on defense, there is no question about that. Lewis has a great O line and very good TE, but the other skill position players leave a lot to be desired. This allows teams to stack 8 or 9 players in the box with the sole purpose of stopping Jamal in mind. If Jamal Lewis played for a team like the Vikings, Colts or Rams, I'd say he'd be completely unstoppable. Imagine the yards he’d get on draws like Faulk, James and Bennett have all benefited from. Can you imagine a nickel package on 3rd and 8 three or four times a game for Lewis? Lewis just doesn't get those chances. From a fantasy standpoint, people argue that backs like Clinton Portis and Ahman Green are better players. I really don't believe that at all. I think the best RB in the NFL plays for Baltimore. He's put up great numbers playing for a horrid offense since the day he came into the league. Are they great fantasy numbers? Not really in previous years, but playing for an offense that went 6 straight weeks without an offensive TD will do that to you. Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson looked like stars in Denver, but how would they have looked in Baltimore? How would Clinton Portis look if he was forced to carry a team like Baltimore on his 205 lb frame? Denver has 3 WR's that are better than Baltimore's number one. That creates a huge amount of space for Portis to make things happen. Priest Holmes has stated that the Ravens "let me go for a reason" and that Lewis was the best back in the NFL. All I can say is that I see no reason to disagree from a real football perspective, although he may not be the best fantasy back unless he can get out of Baltimore.
Boltz4Life
Footballguy
Jamal's chances for a record don't depend as much on what the opponent's defences do, compared to what Bal's D does. The key will be in keeping other teams from driving up the score early in order to keep him from getting the ball. This last game vs. Cin had me feeling that sinking feeling I get as a Charger fan when LT2 is abandoned to play catchup. Of course Lewis still broke 100... but by just one yard, and we know that won't cut it for the record.Now I'm obviously not comparing these team's Ds, but I'm guessing that future teams will be noting Sunday's results and doing what ever they can to try to get ahead early. I have faith in Bal's D and think that this will actually provide more opportunity for INTs and such, but I think this possible trend will hurt JLew's chances for the record.
Goat Herders
Footballguy
HK, unless you're kidding, you should be careful making posts that affect your cred. The fact that Taylor got a goalline carry while Jamal was on the sidelines getting his shoulder rubbed so he'd be ready to rock if they got the ball back hardly makes him the "goalline back". I think Taylor has some value, but lets not be so prone to exaggeration.HERD
H.K.
Footballguy
Read the article I posted earlier. The Ravens are going to try to limit the pounding that Lewis gets. Actions speak louder than words, when they got near the goal line they took out Lewis. Not too hard to read between the lines here...nothing "official" has been announced but after it happens again this week we'll have confirmation that Taylor is the full fledged TD vulture. Most other teams do it, why not Billick, after all he is an offensive genius....
RKade
Footballguy
Sorry, got to go with Herd on this one. Watched the game and his shoulder was getting rubbed while they threw in Taylor. Taylor is good but let's not go crazy now, JLewis is the man there and unless he gets hurt near the goal line again, they aren't going to take him out. Talk about crappy luck, thank god I won though!
H.K.
Footballguy
I know, I'm just bitter as hell. Jamal, DDavis & Lamar Gordaon all had TD's vultured from them due to crappy circumstances resulting in a 2 point loss this past weekend and now I am 4-3. However, with my sh*tty luck, I fully expect Taylor to be the goal line back, I am only half kidding when I think he could be pulled.
Boltz4Life
Footballguy
Looks like HK may end up being correct after all :( ...Ravens: Lewis has sprained shoulder by Fanball Staff - Fanball.comTuesday, October 21, 2003NewsBaltimore running back Jamal Lewis, who has left each of the last two games with a shoulder injury only to return and top 100 rushing yards, has a mild sprain of his right shoulder. Lewis said he will play through the pain, but team officials told the Baltimore Sun that Lewis probably will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.ViewsWhile it sounds like Lewis won’t miss significant time, this news indicates that Chester Taylor will continue to be worked into the Baltimore backfield. Also, with Jamal one solid hit away from the sidelines, those who have been riding Lewis’s success would be well advised to stash Taylor on their roster, just in case.
Goat Herders
Footballguy
I'm bitter as well. I needed the Jamal TD (and Ricky getting no love at the goalline wass a problem too) and when it went to Taylor, I pretty much lost my game right then and there.Taylor will get some carries for sure, and he'll probably get another TD or 2 along the way.But to compare Mack, who has a history of being a good goalline option, with Taylor is a bit short-sighted.HERD
grouse
Footballguy
Before you get all smug over your call that Lewis won't get the record in lieu of the announcement today that Lewis will not be 100% for the remainder of the season because of his banged-up shoulder. Let me take you back to last season:"Wednesday September 11, 2002I'm still sticking with my original prediction that he won't get the record.
When I'm old, I'm going to be in lots of chronic pain. That's a horrible realization, but it's the truth. Football can mess you up pretty bad. I can look at this two ways. I can look forward to a life of pain pills until my liver falls out. Or I can be proactive and have the attitude Jerry Rice has, keep working hard to protect myself against injury by having a body in tip-top condition. You can take care of your body so you can hold up longer and not fall apart. I choose to look at it the positive way but it's not always easy. My shoulder was extremely sore after this weeks game, and it is always going to be. The trainers told me that it's basically going to flare up every time I get hit on it directly because I've got so much junk in my shoulders from the wear and tear of football. I've gotten what seems like hundreds of X-rays, and it's amazing to see how much stuff is in my joints. I've separated both my shoulders before, and I'm going to keep getting hit there because of how hard I run. It's kinda unavoidable. I can get my shoulder scoped after the season, but I'm not doing anything right now except working really hard to strengthen and protect it. I can't let anything take me off the field. It's too important for me to be in there, for me and for the team. I'm going to have to start doing a lot more shoulder work. It feels fine right now because of all the treatment I've gotten on it, but feeling fine is usually temporary in football. I played all last year with a banged up pretty good, so it's not that big a deal. I'll treat it and take care of it, but you better learn to play with pain in this game. You always play a little hurt. The difference between good players, and better players is usually who plays the best when hurtin. It's amazing to me to think about the numbers I could have put up by now if I hadn't chosen to play with so many injuries. I've always had big numbers when I've been healthy, but that's part of playing in the NFL. You rarely feel 100 percent, so most people are trying to do whatever they do when they don't feel 100 percent (especially late in the season). You know how it is when you are young? You always feel bullet-proof, invincible and can play forever. But all I had to do was look at some of my X-rays to know my days are numbered."
Ricky Williams wrote this on his blog following their opening game of 2002 in which he injured his shoulder exactly the same way Lewis has, and it became known he wasn't going to be at 100% for the rest of the year.
He went on to win the rushing title with 1853 yards and 17 TD's. With his injured shoulder.
radballs.
Footballguy
What does what Ricky did last year have to do with what Jamal will do this year? First of all, a rushing title is a far cry from breaking the all time rushing record. Second of all, I don't think it's his shoulder that will keep from breaking it. He's just not quite as good as a lot of posters on this thread think him to be. I only see two backs in the NFL that have the POTENTIAL to break the record in the next couple of years, and neither one will probably do it because of the wear and tear that a full season puts on a RB. We'll revisit this next year when Portis and/or Tomlinson is knocking on the door.He went on to win the rushing title with 1853 yards and 17 TD's. With his injured shoulder.
Another thing Jamal doesn't have going for him that E.D. did is a grossly diluted NFL to run up #'s against.E.D. ran up the best of his career numbers during an era when a not insignificant percentage of the best football players in the world were playing for a competing football league.
It stands to reason that whoever the best back of that era was -- and E.D. appears to have been it -- would be of an elite caliber comparable the elite calibers of other eras (let's call his rating as a football player 10/10), but that on average he'd be rushing against defenses that weren't as talented as those of other eras. If most years, Rb's get it done against average D's (say, against players who average 5/10), during the USFL era, when lots of the Reggie Whites and others went elsewhere for a couple years, E.D. faced D's full of players that averaged maybe 3/10. Davis's and Sanders's 2000+ seasons were, in my opinion, far better years than E.D.'s.
This hurts any back's chance of catching E.D. -- it's simply not a level playing field.
radballs.
Footballguy
That's another good point Mordred. Very valid but I don't think that's what would keep a player like Jamal from closing the deal anyway. I honestly think that he doesn't have the break away speed to get it done. He easily has the heart, the muscle, and he has a team that is relying solely on him. I've already spoken about reasons why it will be difficult for him.However, I think a back that will break the all time season rushing record will have to have flat out speed/moves that almost haven't been seen before in this league( B. Sanders like). I love LT2 (and I've always been a Fred Taylor fan - what he could have been romantic) , but I honestly think there is a gear from C. Portis that we haven't seen yet that will put him over the top either next year or the one after that. Being a Raider fan, the thing that will always haunt me is how good Bo Jax could have been had that nobody Bengal not pulled his hip out. 
Dave Dodson
Footballguy
Jamal Lewis has insane speed for his size. To say that he doesn't have break away speed is just flat out wrong. First of all, you can watch film of him gaining steps on the Brown's DB's as he's ripping off 60 yard TD's. They couldn't catch him with angles. Second of all, you can look at his 40 times at the combine and others and see that he's got a ton of speed.Tennessee RB Jamal Lewis ran a draw dropping 4.37 in the 40 yard dash. Lewis later said, "I just wanted to run like a 4.38 or a 4.39. A lot of teams thought I was running like a 4.5 or 4.6, so I just had to prove them wrong." Just to add some perspective, that's as fast as any WR ran at the combine:Wide receivers: This is the deepest area of the draft with 12 listed in the top 40 of Kiper’s ratings. The first-round candidates include Florida State’s Peter Warrick, Michigan State’s Plaxico Burress, Georgia Tech’s Dez White, West Virginia’s Jerry Porter, Arizona’s Dennis Northcutt, Florida’s Travis Taylor and USC’s R. Jay Soward. Soward recorded the fastest 40-yard dash time for receivers at 4.37.According the Ravens this year, he's actually faster than he was when he came out of Tennessee.Maybe he won't break the record, but it won't be because he lacks break away speed.That's another good point Mordred. Very valid but I don't think that's what would keep a player like Jamal from closing the deal anyway. I honestly think that he doesn't have the break away speed to get it done. He easily has the heart, the muscle, and he has a team that is relying solely on him. I've already spoken about reasons why it will be difficult for him.However, I think a back that will break the all time season rushing record will have to have flat out speed/moves that almost haven't been seen before in this league( B. Sanders like). I love LT2 (and I've always been a Fred Taylor fan - what he could have been romantic) , but I honestly think there is a gear from C. Portis that we haven't seen yet that will put him over the top either next year or the one after that. Being a Raider fan, the thing that will always haunt me is how good Bo Jax could have been had that nobody Bengal not pulled his hip out.
if you believe the Ravens have a shot at the playoffs, then you have to believe JLew has a shot at the recordand vice versathe Ravens will likely 'be in' any game they are controlling the ball--ie, Lewis chewing up yardage--this is CLEARLY the game plan every week, as Boller gets NFL QB 101 under his beltif Baltimore falls behind badly in a game (ie, CINN game), then the plan for handing it to Jamal 25-30 times goes out the door....while he had decent #'s vs CINN, these type games will hurt him...StL,SF,SEA can all put up points in a hurry, early and take Ravens out of the planLewis will need ~450 carries to get there--and at least 2 more 'big' games...possible, but not probablewhile I am obviously a fan, and am rooting for him to do it, I see this as a most difficult taskand that playoff spot I mentioned earlier...freakin' Spittsburg beats us week 17 for it 
Goat Herders
Footballguy
DD, et al.It appears that there is no rationalizing with fools!!!!For the record, I firmly believe Jamal will lead the league in rushing, and if he can (a) play all 16 games in a playoff race and (b) have one more "monster game" - 175+ on the ground, he's got a chance at th record.HERD
Dave Dodson
Footballguy
Statistically, Priest Holmes has a greater probability of blowing his non-surgical knee than does Lewis reinjuring one that he's already blown.Jamal likely won't make it through the season. If he had a 3rd knee maybe he could have surgery on that one too.
Dave Dodson
Footballguy
3rd straight game now with the sore shoulder, all over 100 yards.Not to mention the first RB to rush for 100 against Denver this season. LT2 couldn't do it, Holmes couldn't do it, Lewis and the shoulder pulled through. Needs to pick up the pace to get to the record, but a solid game nonetheless.
Dave Dodson
Footballguy
LOL
Sorry about that!Make that:28 Length of Rushing TD 28 Receiving Yards 134 Rushing Yards 32 Rush Attempts 3 Receptions Not a bad day at the office!
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
We gots to luv GARBAGE TIME!!!
radballs.
Footballguy
I wouldn't go so far as to say fools. This thread was started as, "Will Jamal Lewis break the record?" Not, "Who thinks Jamal is a good back?" If it was an even money bet that I had to take, I would definitely say NO to the first question. Of course, he's a good back having a great season on a crappy team, but I still think his chances of breaking the all time rushing record are far below 50%. Just the fact that you have to qualify your response with points (a) and (b) illustrates that both of these things are necessary for him to have a "chance" at the record. Maybe, you really do think he's got a better chance than 50-50 at breaking it, but I'd like to see all of the Jamal supporters reaching for their wallets to make that bet first.
Dave Dodson
Footballguy
OK, I say 1800 as the floor H.K.... loser buys?
Jamal is a monster from what I have seen of him. He is very capable of doing it. You don't think Cleveland was trying to stop him after his prediction? Those are the kind of things that fire up a team to stop him? I could very easily see him having 1 or 2 more monster games to help him on the few mediocre games. As for injuries, what back isn't dinged up? He knows he has to play through that and seems willing to do it. The ACLs (knees) are very low risk as the replacement is stronger than the original and if you look at athletes who do have 2 done, I can't think of any that had it done to the same knee so if both have been repared.......... Robert Smith was supposed to be injury prone and was until he had his 2 knee done, after that he was a reliable very good fantasy back if not a stud. I know I wish I would have had him back in the day.
Stoli
Footballguy
Jamal has 977 yards through 7 games which is a 139.6 yards per game average. That calculates out to 2,233 for the season, which would surpass the record.So he is well on pace to break it, yet you say he has "NO" chance? You anti-record setter's only argument is to debate what the future holds, which none of us know. All you can base his chances on is what he has done so far, but you willingly choose to ignore that.
H.K.
Footballguy
I stand by my initial post on this topic. Reasons Jamal has no shot at the record (drum roll please):1) Kyle Boller - No threat of a passing game will make every rushing yard that much tougher to get.2) Injury risk - Lewis has an injury history. He takes (and gives) a lot of punishment, but he gets hurt as a result. Exhibit A is this week's injury report.3) Opportunity - Billick is giving a lot of carries to Taylor to spell Lewis. Watching this happen is like watching stats go down a drain.4) Karma - I have Jamal on my fantasy team and I am like the kiss of death for whoever I draft. I had Priest last year and as soon as he got within a whisker of the TD record, everything went kablooey. Check out Edge this year if you need more proof.There you have it, so it is, so it shall be!
The_Man
Footballguy
You're say 1800 as a floor? You realize that to reach that he only needs to average 91 yards per game for the rest of the season?To address your concerns:1. Boller's been QB all season and it hasn't stopped Jamal from picking up 977 yards in 7 games. And, he's getting better, with a QB rating of 85 for the three games he's played in Oct., so there's a chance that opponents will actually have to start respecting the pass more than they have to date this season.2. Jamal's injuries are of the catastrophic, unpredictable kind. There are not of the nagging, game time decision kind. In his rookie season, he started the final 17 games the Ravens played (including post-season) and played all 16 last year.3. Billick is NOT giving a lot of carries to Taylor. Lewis had 32 this week - his career high! How many more carries do you want him to get?4. Maybe your relentless negativity about players on your own team contributes to your bad karma. It's time to embrace happiness, cast away resentment, and reap the rewards.
H.K.
Footballguy
Never! All I have to do is let the inkling of a positive thought creep into my brain about my FF team and all goes to hell. I would prove it to you and type something nice about one of my players, but I am not willing to throw away my FF season to prove a point. Besides, at this point in the season I have nothing positive to say about any of those losers on my squad anyway
I save my happiness for my family and loved ones. FF's purpose is to balance out my life and make me miserable about something 
LivinNsc
Footballguy
:rotflmao: :rotflmao: :rotflmao:Never! All I have to do is let the inkling of a positive thought creep into my brain about my FF team and all goes to hell. I would prove it to you and type something nice about one of my players, but I am not willing to throw away my FF season to prove a point. Besides, at this point in the season I have nothing positive to say about any of those losers on my squad anyway
To further expand on #3, Lewis is currently averaging 23.7 carries and 139 ypg (5.8 ypc....sick!)C Taylor is averaging 4.4 carries and 18.1 ypg (4.1 ypc), has only had 7 carries in the last 2 gamesLewis would need to have 3 more carries a game on average (26 carries per game) for the rest of the season to reach the 400 carry mark Billick referenced, so his carries would actually have to increse to get to that markAnother point, this season Baltimore is 4-1 when Lewis gets 20+ carries, 0-2 when he gets less than 20, the coaches have to see a cooralation
H.K.
Footballguy
Good analysis on the number of carries increasing
However, the 4-0 record on the 20+ carry mark is a bit deceiving. If Baltimore gets behind early, they don't have the offense to come from behind (mostly due to personnel and offensive scheme), so they must rely on their defense to keep them close for Lewis to get his workload. The play of the defense has more to do with Lewis getting his carries than any other factor.Just to end on a negative note, last week Lewis' YPC fell from 6.2 to 5.9 on the season, a trend I see continuing. He'll be lucky to finish at 4.6.
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I DO think he's got a chance at the record, since his team appears that they'll be in the playoff positional hunt till the end, and he's the entire offense. In short: they'll have to ride their horse.But to play Devil's advocate:The talk of his being on pace for 2200+, due to his current 140/game, is a sketchy argument. One of those games is a statistical outlier. Not only an outlier, but so far outlying that no rushing day in NFL history outlies quite as far. YES, he still gets credit for the yards, but to figure them into what he's "on pace" to do is statistically daft. Simply put, you can't expect another 300 yard game for him, ever.Throwing out his high and low, the remainder of his games suggest a "pace" of about 123/game. If he keeps that pace up, he'll surpass 2000, but not E.D.(As an aside, I wouldn't put too much weight behind his being the first back to put up 100+ on DEN, either, since he's also the only back who got to benefit from a Kannell-led opposition, and a grossly depleted LB corps. A good game, still, but not really a fair comparison to the DEN squad those other backs faced.)
I think it is reasonable for all of us to agree it could get very close to the record barring injuryAs Modred pointed out, it may be more reasonable to throw out the high (295) and low (69) to get a more realistic average yards per game to predict the rest of the season on, which ends up being 123.After 7 games he is at 977 + the remaining 9 games x 123 yards = 2084That is only 21 yards short of the record...or 2.3 yards more per game than the 123 average used aboveI think it is hard to say it is not a real possibility, still a long shot this early in the season, but would not require any more than what has been done so far by Lewis this season
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