how does the opponents offense change when up by 8 vs up by 9? seems their strategy is the same regardless. run out the clock.
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You're down by 15 with 7:00 minutes left in the game (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chase Stuart
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CalBear
Footballguy
But it doesn't matter to the opposing coach. For the coach that's behind, it could make the difference in a decision to go for it or kick a FG or punt on fourth down; the coach who's ahead will almost certainly kick a FG or punt on any fourth down.
Spaces Lines and Laces
Footballguy
No Sir. Whether your QB is Manning, Romo, Alex Smith, I think you treat it the same. You potentially put Romo in another high pressure situation regardless. You miss the 2 point try, and you're down by 9. You make the first needed stop, you march down to the 18 yard line, and they push you to 4th and 10 with, Do you kick it or go for it? You've already created another decision. I think you kick it here, you gotta get the ball back anyways. So, you if you make it and get it back, and then you're asking Romo to find the endzone. This likely goes down to the waning seconds. Even worse, you may end up in hail mary land. I think you can potentially create the same pressure situation regardless. To me, you minimize scenarios and decisions. Only needing to score once allows more time for the TD drive. You minimize the likliehood of having 3 seconds and having to throw it 60 yards.
The Iguana
Footballguy
I'll type s l o w l y for you....Downside of missing early:1. Being down 9 is a major psychological blow to your team. The odds of getting the ball back once much less twice go way down. 2. Likewise, being up 9 also gives your opponent both mental and physical advantages. They now have a certain cushion and much better play callling options than if only up 8.upside of missing early:1. you know you are SOL unless you get an onside kick or just completely dominate the last 7 minutes (which you didn't do for at least the first 50ish or so before the TD you just scored)Downside of missing late:1. time is running out to get that 3rd score2. you are SOL barring an onside kick or a miracle in the last x minutes of the game.upside of missing late:1. means you got the ball and made the TD you needed and thus kicking 1 worked.
CalBear
Footballguy
I don't think being down 9 is a major psychological blow to a team that was just down by 15. Would you rather be down 9 kicking off with 7:00 left, or down 2 kicking off with 30 seconds left?
renesauz
IBL Representative
Are you more likely to give up a FG down 7, or down 9? I'd argue you're far more likely to give it up down 7. In either case, you'd still be down 2 scores (10 or 12) with presumably significantly less then 7 minutes left...a likely death sentence either way so it's probably a moot point.The key difference is that an offens up 9 very late plays super-conservative and is an easier stop then an offense up 7 or 8. Take advantage of the NFL head coaching "safe play" mindset by going for 2 knowing you'll leave yourself more room for error.
rick6668
Footballguy
This is an upside???
Lash
Footballguy
well might need to cover it again cause many are missing itthe other coach also knowing i need an onsides kick down nine is meaningless because he is gonna have his hands team in no matter what (up 7 or up 9) unless he is an imbecileso he already KNOWS he is gonna have his hands team in ... i DON'T currently even know whether i'll need an onsides kick or not this game if i don't go for two nowso as of now (down 15 with 7min left) he currently has more knowledge
Jayrod
Footballguy
This is a very "depends" situation.
Statistically it is a 50/50 proposition according to this link:
http://www.footballcommentary.com/twoptchart.htm
Statistically it is a 50/50 proposition according to this link:
http://www.footballcommentary.com/twoptchart.htm
Flash
Footballguy
This is exactly the correct stance.You absolutely HAVE to go for 2 here. If you wait, get the ball back with 2 mins or less, then you try and miss, you need to recover an onside kick which is much more difficult than going for 2, especially when the other team knows it's coming.Warehouse Nasty said:
The Iguana
Footballguy
I actually think of it the other way around. I'm assuming I can make the 2 so why risk failure now? If I think there is little to no chance at making it, then I probably go for it early. If I think I have a decent chance to make the 2, then no way do I risk failure now and hand my opponent a big advantage of a 2 score lead.
The Iguana
Footballguy
I was stretching... there's no upside to missing either time IMO but the downside to missing early is worse than the downside to missing late.
The Iguana
Footballguy
If you are down by 9 kicking off with 7:00 left then you are are hoping to get the chance to kick off down by 2 with 30 seconds left so I'll go with the 2nd one.
H.K.
Footballguy
Are you more likely to give up a FG down 7, or down 9? I'd argue you're far more likely to give it up down 7. In either case, you'd still be down 2 scores (10 or 12) with presumably significantly less then 7 minutes left...a likely death sentence either way so it's probably a moot point.The key difference is that an offens up 9 very late plays super-conservative and is an easier stop then an offense up 7 or 8. Take advantage of the NFL head coaching "safe play" mindset by going for 2 knowing you'll leave yourself more room for error.Missing the 2 pointer and giving up a FG makes it a 12 point differential and it limits your options severely.
Appreciate the shtick from the go for two crowd because it is very humorous
Again, I appreciate the shtick. 
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
you put your team in the best position to win.....and you can only do this by things you have control over......many in here are assuming that you are going to stop the other team in the last 7 minutes....there is no guarantee of that.....if you miss the 2 point conv and the other team kicks a FG with 4 minutes left....you now have to score two TD's again....had you kicked it's only a TD and FG still, with a FG being more realistic IF you recover the onside............
I'm all for gutsy calls, etc.....but with 7 minutes left I want to tell my defense
"just get me the ball back once".....
not..... "get in back, we'll try to score real quick even though we just couldn't on that last play from inside the 3, and then we'll need you guys to get it back again as quick as you can, again.... if you don't mind"
I'm all for gutsy calls, etc.....but with 7 minutes left I want to tell my defense
"just get me the ball back once".....
not..... "get in back, we'll try to score real quick even though we just couldn't on that last play from inside the 3, and then we'll need you guys to get it back again as quick as you can, again.... if you don't mind"
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Jayrod
Footballguy
No you don't.You leave less time as the other team will do everything in its power to take up time....they will run the ball, run the play clock down to 1, play prevent and sideline defense, keep ballcarriers in bounds, etc. A 3 and out can remove almost 3 minutes of game time if the coach wants to and no TO's are called.Are you more likely to give up a FG down 7, or down 9? I'd argue you're far more likely to give it up down 7. In either case, you'd still be down 2 scores (10 or 12) with presumably significantly less then 7 minutes left...a likely death sentence either way so it's probably a moot point.The key difference is that an offens up 9 very late plays super-conservative and is an easier stop then an offense up 7 or 8. Take advantage of the NFL head coaching "safe play" mindset by going for 2 knowing you'll leave yourself more room for error.Missing the 2 pointer and giving up a FG makes it a 12 point differential and it limits your options severely.
Appreciate the shtick from the go for two crowd because it is very humorous
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CalBear
Footballguy
Come on, be realistic; there are many better scenarios than kicking off down by 2 with 30 seconds left. If you kick off with 7:00 left and get a stop, you'll have the ball in good field position with over 4:00 left down by 9, which is clearly better than kicking off down by 2 with 30 seconds left.
The Iguana
Footballguy
This the crux of the argument that the go for 2 now people aren't getting. If you go for 2 and miss early then you are basically hoping to get to the same position you would be in if you kick early and miss the 2 late. If you go for 2 early and make it, you have no advantage over going for 2 late and making it. On the flip side, if you kick early you are 1 score out and just need the ball back 1 time to have a shot. If you miss late, you are in the same boat you would be in if you miss late.Also, if you kick early, odds are better that you have more time left on the clock after the 2nd score and miss than if you miss the 2 early and then score a 2nd time later.
Insein
Footballguy
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massraider
Footballguy
The only way you are coaching differently that late in the game is by either needing to score a TD to tie (going for two) or needing two scores. Forcing yourself to score twice more is a high price for some information. You also, by going for it and not making it, allow the other team to put it in cruise control, knowing you are down by two scores.
renesauz
IBL Representative
I watch football every weekend....5 or 6 games....for 3 decades.Teams up two scores with 7 minutes left do one thing...run (unless their coach is Andy Reid). Those teams go three and out far more often then they do at any other point in the game because veryone in the building knows what's coming.No you don't.You leave less time as the other team will do everything in its power to take up time....they will run the ball, run the play clock down to 1, play prevent and sideline defense, keep ballcarriers in bounds, etc. A 3 and out can remove over 3 minutes of game time if the coach wants to and no TO's are called.Are you more likely to give up a FG down 7, or down 9? I'd argue you're far more likely to give it up down 7. In either case, you'd still be down 2 scores (10 or 12) with presumably significantly less then 7 minutes left...a likely death sentence either way so it's probably a moot point.The key difference is that an offens up 9 very late plays super-conservative and is an easier stop then an offense up 7 or 8. Take advantage of the NFL head coaching "safe play" mindset by going for 2 knowing you'll leave yourself more room for error.Missing the 2 pointer and giving up a FG makes it a 12 point differential and it limits your options severely.
Appreciate the shtick from the go for two crowd because it is very humorous
Teams up 7 or 8 points with 7 minutes left do...anything...but on average, they kill a lot more clock then those up 9 before they give up the ball. They also tend to score more often in that scenario.
I am by no means saying it's preferable to be down 9 then it is to be down 8. What I am saying is that down 9 your chances of getting TWO more possessions are MUCH better then they are down 8.
If you miss the 2 pointer at either point...you're going to need a third possession. If you miss it at 7 minutes (vice a point significantly later in the game), your chances of actually getting that third possession are better.
7 minutes is early enough that it won't be a huge morale blow to a professional football team, but late enough that you know you're not getting many more chances and your Defense needs 3 n outs no matter what. If your team is going to have their morale crushed in this scenario, then your team is not mentally tough enough to compete in the post-season anyway...so might as well crush their morale, take the loss and get better draft picks/players that aren't so easily dismayed.
The Iguana
Footballguy
Exactly. If you go for 2 now and miss then you give the ball to your opponent with ~7:00 to play knowing that they are up 2 scores. The other team now has the ability to run clock more knowing that you ahve to get the ball 2 times to win. A smart team runs the ball here (or makes sure/smart passes) and takes a good 2+ minutes off the clock even if they don't get a first down. So, you get the ball back with 4:30 left and are down 2 scores. If all goes well you score and are kicking off with 2 minutes left and a couple time outs.Now, if you kick the one... the other team has the ball with ~7:00 to play and knows that the game could be tied with only 1 score. Now, do they run exclusivey and give you the ball back with 4:30ish left or do they continue to run and pass, possibly stopping the clock? Assuming that they run 3 plays and keep the clock moving but fail a first down, you get the ball back with 4:30 left. You score and fail, you are in the same spot as above.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
there is no guarantee of being in "good" field position with 4:00 minutes left and no matter what in your situation you will still be kicking off with probably 30 seconds left (cause your still down by 1 or 2) ..........down 9 with 4 minutes left has you looking at still being down and kicking off with little time on the clock.......
massraider
Footballguy
rick6668
Footballguy
Let's assume you will miss the 2pt conv either way.
Scenario #1 - You miss and kick off with 7 minutes left down by 9. You need 2 scores.
Scenario #2 - You kick and are down by 8. You now think you are within 1 score, so if you do stop the opposing team and get the ball back, you will now try to score a TD thinking that you could tie. You have no other options at this point other than getting a TD, you will not kick a FG with 1:50 left on 4th and 10 from the 25. You will likely use up a lot more of the clock trying to get that TD that you hope will tie with a conversion, but that conversion will fail and now you're left with little time left.
With Scenario #2, you are much more likely to waste clock on your possession hoping to tie and leave no time for your opponent when you are the one that will need time on the clock.
You need to know if you need to conserve the clock when you get the second possession now rather than later when it's too late. Your opponent will never want to conserve the clock either way.
Scenario #1 - You miss and kick off with 7 minutes left down by 9. You need 2 scores.
Scenario #2 - You kick and are down by 8. You now think you are within 1 score, so if you do stop the opposing team and get the ball back, you will now try to score a TD thinking that you could tie. You have no other options at this point other than getting a TD, you will not kick a FG with 1:50 left on 4th and 10 from the 25. You will likely use up a lot more of the clock trying to get that TD that you hope will tie with a conversion, but that conversion will fail and now you're left with little time left.
With Scenario #2, you are much more likely to waste clock on your possession hoping to tie and leave no time for your opponent when you are the one that will need time on the clock.
You need to know if you need to conserve the clock when you get the second possession now rather than later when it's too late. Your opponent will never want to conserve the clock either way.
The Iguana
Footballguy
Again, if you miss the 2 early, the best you can hope for is to be in the same position you would be in if you miss the 2 late. What advantage do you gain?
The Iguana
Footballguy
And to clarify... why are you more likley to have more time left on the clock when you are kicking off down 2 by missing early than to have more time on the clock when you miss late?
Jayrod
Footballguy
Oh....well by all means, you must be correct in your "scientific" analysis.I'm sure none of us have ever watched as many games as you have and must defer to your obviously superior knowledge.I watch football every weekend....5 or 6 games....for 3 decades.No you don't.You leave less time as the other team will do everything in its power to take up time....they will run the ball, run the play clock down to 1, play prevent and sideline defense, keep ballcarriers in bounds, etc. A 3 and out can remove over 3 minutes of game time if the coach wants to and no TO's are called.Are you more likely to give up a FG down 7, or down 9? I'd argue you're far more likely to give it up down 7. In either case, you'd still be down 2 scores (10 or 12) with presumably significantly less then 7 minutes left...a likely death sentence either way so it's probably a moot point.The key difference is that an offens up 9 very late plays super-conservative and is an easier stop then an offense up 7 or 8. Take advantage of the NFL head coaching "safe play" mindset by going for 2 knowing you'll leave yourself more room for error.Missing the 2 pointer and giving up a FG makes it a 12 point differential and it limits your options severely.
Appreciate the shtick from the go for two crowd because it is very humorous
Dude. We all watch a heck of a lot of football in here. This is no trump card.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
You know, having just insulted me with the "type s l o w l y" routine, you might want to read what you write before you post it to make sure that it doesn't contain a complete contradiction within a single sentence.
If you assume success, you assume it now as well as later. If you risk failure, you risk it now and later.
renesauz
IBL Representative
Your defense has an easier job. This is a very real advantage. It's easier to defend a team you KNOW will run to kill clock then it is to defend a team that needs at least a couple of first downs to effectively kill the clock. You can take advantage of the "safe-play" mentality prevelant in the NFL coaching ranks today.
massraider
Footballguy
With scenario #2, the other team knows you are only down by one score. They are much more likely to attempt to get a first down, and thus do something other than ram the ball into the middle of the line. You give them a gift by missing a two-pointer there. They know they are up by two scores, they can suck time or timeouts, then keep everything in front of them, letting you dink and dunk down the field, killing more clock. They are allowed to not take ANY risk, whereas down by one score, maybe they put the ball in the air, trying to seal the deal with a 1st down or two.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Why do teams choose defense first in college football overtime? Because knowing what you need is better than not knowing what you need. This is the same thing. Anyone that says you kick the XP there is as wrong as anyone that says playing offense first is a better advantage in college football overtime.
The talking heads on tv constantly say "that was stupid to go for 2 there, now they're down by 9, if they had kicked the extra point they'd only be down by 8".
You need 2 either way. Going for 2 with 10 seconds left is no more likely to succeed or fail than going for 2 with 7:00 left. So, you have to assume that the 2 point conversion ends the same either way.
So why in the world would you not want to know whether you need 2 possessions or 1 possessions with 7 minutes left, rather than with 10 seconds left? If you go for two at 7:00, you know how many scores you need and can play fast if you missed it, or more relaxed if you made it. If you kick the XP and are down by 8, then every team is going to play relaxed thinking they're only down one score, and milk the clock against themselves.
It makes no sense. The people that say "if they'd kicked the XP, they'd only be down 1 score" are wrong. We have to assume the result of the 2 point conversion would be the same, so even down by 8 they're not "really" down 1 score, they think they're down 1 score when they're really down 2.
You absolutely, 100% go for 2 with 7:00 left.
The talking heads on tv constantly say "that was stupid to go for 2 there, now they're down by 9, if they had kicked the extra point they'd only be down by 8".
You need 2 either way. Going for 2 with 10 seconds left is no more likely to succeed or fail than going for 2 with 7:00 left. So, you have to assume that the 2 point conversion ends the same either way.
So why in the world would you not want to know whether you need 2 possessions or 1 possessions with 7 minutes left, rather than with 10 seconds left? If you go for two at 7:00, you know how many scores you need and can play fast if you missed it, or more relaxed if you made it. If you kick the XP and are down by 8, then every team is going to play relaxed thinking they're only down one score, and milk the clock against themselves.
It makes no sense. The people that say "if they'd kicked the XP, they'd only be down 1 score" are wrong. We have to assume the result of the 2 point conversion would be the same, so even down by 8 they're not "really" down 1 score, they think they're down 1 score when they're really down 2.
You absolutely, 100% go for 2 with 7:00 left.
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renesauz
IBL Representative
Wasn't meant to be. More then one person in the "kick it" crowd have been fececious and demeaning in their arguments, and far less scientific. I'm no idiot...and I honestly believe the better play is to go for 2 here.Also...to be fair...I have at no point insinuated that the kick it crowd are idiots. Lots of solid arguments have been made to support that line of thinking...I've already stated that at 10 minutes or 4 minutes I agreed with those arguments. My argument is based primarily on how NFL coaches go conservative with a lead....in a differant league, with deifferant coaching mentalities, my answer might be differant.
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
If you miss the two early and get the ball back without allowing a score, you can adjust accordingly if, say, you have a chance to kick a FG on 4th and long with 4 minutes left and all your timeout left. Advantage gained. If you miss the two early and get the ball back without allowing a score, you know that you have to score very very fast and can adjust playcalls, the need to get out of bounds, and between-snap behavior accordingly. Advantage gained. If you miss the two early and then get the ball back and march down the field easily, you can be more sure to conserve time outs knowing you'll need another possession and maybe time to get a FG unit on. Advantage gained. If you miss the two early, you can consider whether an onside kick is an option immediately. Advantage gained.
rick6668
Footballguy
I'd much rather have the other team running into the line 3 straight times and taking 2:00 off the clock and giving me the ball back rather than them trying to get first downs. You need 2 scores either way. You just know it now and it gives you more options when you get the ball.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
They probably do ask and this is why dumb coaches get hired.
Would you rather need one possession to tie or two? I don't think any coach in their right mind would say "put me in the position where I NEED two possessions at the end of the game". When you're losing, you put off the lowest probability situation for as long as possible. It's as simple as that.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Up 8 with 7 minutes to go means you need to try to score. Trying to score means passing and worrying less about killing time which means the potential to stop the clock and take up less time on a drive than a "3 runs and out drive".Up 9 with 7 minutes to go means you take up every second you can and run the ball 3 and out and max protect punt and don't give up any big plays on defense.
The Iguana
Footballguy
type slowly was meant in fun. made me chuckle...That said, I think you have to assume you can make it but you have to realize there is a risk of failure. If you have no chance at making the 2, doesn't matter when you go for it, you still need 2 scores. The real question is the one I asked above... why are you more likely to have more time on the clock if you miss the 2 early than if you miss it late?
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
If you go for it and fail and get the ball back with two minutes left, you already have to score twice and the other team already knows you need an onside kick.The two point play after the first TD is only a smart move if it's successful.
H.K.
Footballguy
Being tied at the start of college OT and trailing by 9 with a conversion and seven minutes to go in NFL regulation are not even remotely close to the same thing. You have to be fishing.
Jayrod
Footballguy
You are ignoring the likely actions of the other team and their advantages of knowing what you need now as well.Advantages lost.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
I love threads where Chase tells everyone their logic is flawed and wrong but he can provide no explanation why.
renesauz
IBL Representative
Insein
Footballguy
How does that change if you make the PAT? Your number of possessions is a variable you're not privy to at the time. So why take the chance of needing an extra possession to tie the game when you could guarantee that you will only need one possession as things stand with the PAT? The rest of what you're talking about is all hypothetical. Teams could go conservative or they could pass 3 and out, or they could throw a bomb and score on the first play. You don't know any of that. What you do know is that all things being equal, if I kick this PAT, I can still tie with one possession. If I go for 2 and miss, I can't tie in one possession.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Agreed. If I'm coaching the other team and get the ball back up 9, I'm going to be more in the mode of run the clock knowing the other guy has to score twice to have any shot at beating me. If I get the ball back up 8, I'm more likely to try and get more points to make it a two possession game again.
Perfect Tommy
Footballguy
Definely got for the 2. Another factor that I haven't seen mentioned is what if there is a penalty against the offense on the 2-point conversion? If you go for 2 early, then you switch gears and kick the extra point from the 8 yard line. If you waited until you must go for 2, then you have to try to convert the 2-point conversion from the 8-yard line.
rick6668
Footballguy
If you miss the 2pt converion, you need 2 scores either way, whether you go for it first or second.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
No, I'm not. I was just responding to his suggestion that there's no advantages to it, which is a silly thing to say. I also frankly wanted to point out how silly it was since he'd been a bit of a condescending tool towards me earlier in the thread.Sure, the opponent can use the success of failure of your attempt to inform strategy too, no question. I just think it's pretty obvious that the knowledge benefits the trailing team more than the leading team. I mean, what are they gonna do, try harder to run the ball and kill the clock and not turn it over? Sure, maybe they pass on third down once if they're down 8 and run it if they're down 9 ... maybe. But it pales in comparison to the tremendous differences it makes in the strategy of the trailing team.
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