tone1oc
Footballguy
Your outlier Kevin Faulk could play all 3 downs, just like (I believe) Lewis can.
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Dion Lewis (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ex-ghost
- Start date
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
He is available in both leagues Im in. Im trying to offer a non-bias opinion, as I don't own him, but he is available so I have done my research on the situation. You have shown plenty of times when you own a player that changes your opinion of him. Ask coots......
In all honesty the only guy I want to see fail in the NFL is Tom Brady. I don't care about any other players failure.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
And he only got over 100 carries twice in his career. The 2003 season was the last time a small back had over 100 carries. Could it happen...yes, will it happen....very unlikely.
Anyways, I'll leave you guys to talking this guy up to the next Jamaal Charles as no amount of data or past history will change your mind. I'll be back later in the season to revisit this.
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RealReactions
Footballguy
Tom Brady is the greatest qb to play the game. He won't ever fail were he is run out of the league he will retire before then. He obviously will have down games but he is the GOAT of NFL qbs
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tone1oc
Footballguy
Funny how arbitrary your point is.. 100 carries? Why not mention that he had 178 carries? Also you are presupposing that BB arbitrarily determines a player's usage by his size and not skillset. I'm sure if I was to run a query most bellcow RBs are 5'10"+ and/or 220 lbs ..
That doesn't mean every small back is incapable of every down work.. You only have to look to last season as an example of a scat back who excelled as a 3 down back (Justin Forsett)
Do you really believe that BB would have relegated Forsett to 3rd down/passing given the BAL backfield of last year?
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tone1oc
Footballguy
Road Warriors
Footballguy
I'm not exactly sure what you're seeing in that table that leads you to this conclusion. I know last year was an anomoly, but going back for nearly all of Belichick's time in NE, he has had a primary runner and a receiving back. In some years the primary runner changed, but never was the substitute the receiving back.
When Ridley went down last year, the logical choice would have been Vereen, who was already very involved in the offense, but instead they went to Gray, then Blount. Vereen stayed in his role. I see the same situation forming with Lewis.
However, if Blount goes down, it may be interesting. Bolden isn't a NFL caliber running back ( good on ST ), white didn't see the field in the opening game without Blount, which doesn't bode well for him. The wildcard would be Cadet. I haven't seen enough of him to speculate, but from what I've read, he is much more a passing threat than a runner. In that case, perhaps Cadet slides into the receiving back role and Lewis moves in to the primary runner spot.
There hasn't been a BB team without a receiving back option. It was Faulk/Woodhead/Vereen and now it appears to be Lewis. These guys occasionally get > 10 carries a game, but it's pretty rare. Only Faulk has ever had what would be close to a full workload.
I will admit that after Blount, the RB crop looks really thin, and Lewis might be the answer.
But someone is going to fill that receiving back role. It's too much a part of their offensive scheme to give up.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Was Dion Lewis brought in to be a passing back? Yes
Do the Pats and every single team in the NFL utilize a passing/3rd down back? Yes
Those two facts do not preclude a 3rd down back from becoming an every down back. Injuries/Poor Performance/etc happen.
I'll ask again.. given the BAL backfield last year do you believe that BB would of square pegged Tali or Bryce Brown into primary role because he wouldn't want to change the way he operated as the OP I was commenting on insinuated.
Given that Lewis plays at a high level and Blount performs as bad as he did in the preseason who exactly do you see getting the featured role?
Do the Pats and every single team in the NFL utilize a passing/3rd down back? Yes
Those two facts do not preclude a 3rd down back from becoming an every down back. Injuries/Poor Performance/etc happen.
I'll ask again.. given the BAL backfield last year do you believe that BB would of square pegged Tali or Bryce Brown into primary role because he wouldn't want to change the way he operated as the OP I was commenting on insinuated.
Given that Lewis plays at a high level and Blount performs as bad as he did in the preseason who exactly do you see getting the featured role?
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pghrob
Hail to the Chief
Ray Rice: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/player-all-info.php?id=RiceRa00&ref=s Rice at 5'8" at 199 # his BMI is 30.3.
Dion Lewis: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/player-all-info.php?id=LewiDi00&ref=sLewis at 5'7" and 193# his BMI is 30.2.
Rice was a good 3 down back for the Ravens.
https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/educational/lose_wt/BMI/bmicalc.htm
Dion Lewis: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/player-all-info.php?id=LewiDi00&ref=sLewis at 5'7" and 193# his BMI is 30.2.
Rice was a good 3 down back for the Ravens.
https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/educational/lose_wt/BMI/bmicalc.htm
addicted2ff
Footballguy
Yeah I keep hearing multiple ppl say Lewis looked better at Pitt than Shady did.Da Gildz said:
Not going to speculate on what could happen since there's just way too many variables/possibilities to factor. Instead I'm just glad I got him off waivers for free and will be happy if he can somehow help my team considering I used 0 resources to get him.
addicted2ff
Footballguy
Yeah Rice is a guy that came to mind for me as an optimistic comparison considering they were both smaller backs who were workhorses for their teams in college. There's a couple of factors going against him though such as why his draft pedigree was so low(5th round) and the fact that Belichick hasn't had a sub 220lb back get 150+ carries since Faulk in 03.
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
Went back to watch all of Lewis' touches on GamePass. He looks better than I remembered. Ran routes well, caught well, did fine in Pass Pro, broken ankles and tackles.
Not calling him Marshall, but he has the same little jukes, spins and start/stops as Marshall Faulk. If I didn't already own him, I'd be buying, PPR especially. Regarding the fumble, that strip was PERFECT hand placement on the nose of the football. Not many RBs would have withstood that strip.
Not calling him Marshall, but he has the same little jukes, spins and start/stops as Marshall Faulk. If I didn't already own him, I'd be buying, PPR especially. Regarding the fumble, that strip was PERFECT hand placement on the nose of the football. Not many RBs would have withstood that strip.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
tone1oc
Footballguy
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
RealReactions
Footballguy
Don't know why you brought this back to the top but i have no clue where you are talking about. and honestly i don't care for grammar on a blog bud. didn't know i was getting graded.
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
RealReactions
Footballguy
I'm still lost? in what contents are you using this your because i don't see where it goes.
addicted2ff
Footballguy
Actually after watching some of Dion's highlight videos my closest player comparison would be Barry Sanders(stolen from one of the announcers). He's not as strong and doesn't run through arm tackles as well as similar backs of his size like Ray Rice or Vereen or Marshall Faulk or even Abdullah but what he does excel at is superb agility and balance in the open field against defenders who are within arms reach. I would say Dion's agility/balance is on a level below Barry and above those similar smaller backs named above(Rice also has really good balance but agility isn't as good). It's pretty clear that he shouldn't be in short yardage situations but I can see him eating into some of Blount's early down work as they make a great Thunder/Lighting pairing and offset each other's deficiencies very well.
Deamon
Footballguy
saying you'll be back later on to revisit this didn't work out too well for you in the other lewis thread.
rjv
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Blount doesn't "stink". It gets thrown around in these threads that he is some kind of mediocre RB but he produces consistently in every place he has played. He may not be a complete 3 down back and he is definitely a head case but the man knows how to run the football. I don't know why people refuse to acknowledge that fact, and it is without question a fact.
Fair point. Stink was probably too strong. He has rushed for a decent ypc over his career. But he is 1 dimensional. I also don't think Lewis needs him to go away to be a force in fantasy. For PPR purposes at least. If Lewis can get 160+ carries, coupled with his receiving, his ceiling is pretty dam high. And if he ends up leading the backfield in carries, well his ceiling is immense.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I highly doubt Lewis comes anywhere near 160 carries. Woodhead and Vereen never even hit 100 carries in a season.
Blount has averaged about five ypc for the Pats and has scored 15 TDs in his last 16 games for them. The Pats don't think he is mediocre and when they want to have an inside the tackles runner it is going to be Blount.
Blount has averaged about five ypc for the Pats and has scored 15 TDs in his last 16 games for them. The Pats don't think he is mediocre and when they want to have an inside the tackles runner it is going to be Blount.
Jack White
Footballguy
I can see a split in carries or something like 60-40 in Blounts favor and all the short yardage/GL situations going to Blount. Again, Dion can run between the tackles. They can be a nice 1-2 combo, someone mentioned thunder and lightning of the past , good comparison.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Where have you been, oh voice of reason?
Blount will come in and be Blount. 15-18 carries or so. 80% of the goal line touches. Leaving Lewis with what? 5 carries? 3-4 catches? Don't forget Cadet was inactive. He will be in some game plans this year, or they wouldn't have kept him...
matuski
Footballguy
The voice of reason would of course realize Blount will get 8-12 carries if they aren't playing Indy in January.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I agree on pretty much all counts. However counting on BB to use his RBs in any kind of predictable fashion is a lesson in futility. He is a lottery ticket, I'll give you that. And a guy like Blount could easily fumble or knucklehead his way into the doghouse (although Lewis let the ball get stripped and that couldn't have made BB happy and I am certain he will not forget that anytime soon).
He's a lottery ticket at best and a bye week fill-in until Blount is out of the picture (even in PPR). If Blount is gone I still only think his true value would be in PPR. He won't get goal line love and I doubt he will get consistent red zone love passing or rushing so he will have to get his scores from distance. And I don't think those two factors would change even if Blount is out of the picture.
Road Warriors
Footballguy
I'd suggest looking at 2012 as a representative year for BB running back usage, assuming all stay healthy and in good graces.
RBs:
Ridley - Blount
Woodhead - Lewis
Vereen - Cadet
Bolden - Bolden
Ridley got just short of 300 carries. Vereen and Woodhead split another 130 carries. Vereen wasn't very active in the passing game, with only 13 targets, while woody got 55.
This is the last time NE had a healthy between the tackles RB for the full season. This is typically the breakdown of touches going back to Dillon era, with a few exceptions.
In fact, looking back at the woodhead era, I'd say that's a good baseline to expect from Lewis. Woodhead had a high of 97 carries (2010), and the other years were 77 (2011) and 76 (2012).
RBs:
Ridley - Blount
Woodhead - Lewis
Vereen - Cadet
Bolden - Bolden
Ridley got just short of 300 carries. Vereen and Woodhead split another 130 carries. Vereen wasn't very active in the passing game, with only 13 targets, while woody got 55.
This is the last time NE had a healthy between the tackles RB for the full season. This is typically the breakdown of touches going back to Dillon era, with a few exceptions.
In fact, looking back at the woodhead era, I'd say that's a good baseline to expect from Lewis. Woodhead had a high of 97 carries (2010), and the other years were 77 (2011) and 76 (2012).
mnmplayer
Footballguy
So far he is taking it to the next level. he is like Vareen in pass catching but can also run way better than Vereen did between the tackles, hence no need for the Riddley aspect or the other dude they cut that runs inside, Jonas Gray. You can also see cadet and White are not in the picture for anything but a backup role.
I have seen this guy compared to Barry Sanders. I didn't want to mention that myself but anyone who thinks he cannot carry the load needs to watch some of those links I posted and realize he carried 46 times in that Pitt game.
Put yourself in BB shoes. If you have a versatile guy that runs "like Barry" and can catch like Vereen what have you got? Something special that can be lines up wide or I formation and be effective at both. Why would you put Blount in? Maybe as a hammer with a lead or in put power short yardage situations. Pther than that I don't see where Blount has Lewis beat in skillset for any other situation. BB sees the same I hope.
Could be special player. Great start. P.S. Barry didn't catch like Lewis can so the ceiling is very great with Dion Lewis if given the opps he deserves. I am not saying he runs like Barry, but many others have so don't jump down my throat about the comparison.
shadyridr
Footballguy
cadet was inactive so why wouldn't Lewis=vereen+Woodhead?
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
matuski
Footballguy
Oh, we aren't going off anything real like his entire history as a Patriot? I would like to change my prediction to something more like 8-10 most weeks. Unless it is late December or January.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Uh, because while Woodhead was there, Vereen did almost nothing?
I think its actually the best comparison, the 2012 season that is.
Atmospheric River
Footballguy
Spent 10% of my budget is get him in ppr. Well worth it.
Matchup play. Anytime they face a strong d line, Lewis should eat. Mcdaniels is too smart to keep rushing up the middle when he knows his oline can't push around their dline. This guy is super elusive. Mcdaniels was also using 2 rb sets during the preseason so his usage should be decent throughout.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Here's the skinny on Blunt as a NE player. In 26 games so far, he has only averaged 11.1 carries per game (but as BB would say, this year is not any other year).
Breakdown of carries:
0-5: 6 times
6-10: 8 times
11-15: 7 times
16-20: 2 times
21-25: 2 times
26+: 1 time
By comparison, Maroney averaged 13 carries per game and Ridley averaged 12.4 carries per game.
I would guess Blount will get a few more carries per game on average in games where they actual go with a run focused offense or get way ahead. It is worth noting that even if the team planned on having a day where they ran a lot, if they get behind they have shown that they will ignore the run in the second half almost entirely (or at least not let the between the tackles back run very often).
I still think Blount will average 14 carries a game x 15 games equals 210 carries. He should come in right around 1,000 rushing yards. (I also think that he will get a few more receptions than most people think, as they need to mix it up some or defenses will know what the play will be just based on who is in the backfield).
I don't see Bolden or White doing much of anything unless the other backs get hurt. It remains to be seen how they will use Cadet, but I am guessing he will be a guy that motions out of the backfield, lines up some in the slot, or occasionally might be one of the trips in an overload.
Overall, I don't see Lewis getting the number of carries or touches he had Week 1 very often. Woodhead had 10 or more carries 6 times in 51 games (12%) and Vereen did so 8 times in 49 games (16%).
Also worth nothing is the Patriots RB workloads (total carries) have been on the decline . . . 485 in 2012, 435 in 2013, and 379 in 2014. Injuries last year likely playing into the low total, but NE seems to have settled in on Brady throwing a lot of short passes to serve as a rushing attack at time.
Breakdown of carries:
0-5: 6 times
6-10: 8 times
11-15: 7 times
16-20: 2 times
21-25: 2 times
26+: 1 time
By comparison, Maroney averaged 13 carries per game and Ridley averaged 12.4 carries per game.
I would guess Blount will get a few more carries per game on average in games where they actual go with a run focused offense or get way ahead. It is worth noting that even if the team planned on having a day where they ran a lot, if they get behind they have shown that they will ignore the run in the second half almost entirely (or at least not let the between the tackles back run very often).
I still think Blount will average 14 carries a game x 15 games equals 210 carries. He should come in right around 1,000 rushing yards. (I also think that he will get a few more receptions than most people think, as they need to mix it up some or defenses will know what the play will be just based on who is in the backfield).
I don't see Bolden or White doing much of anything unless the other backs get hurt. It remains to be seen how they will use Cadet, but I am guessing he will be a guy that motions out of the backfield, lines up some in the slot, or occasionally might be one of the trips in an overload.
Overall, I don't see Lewis getting the number of carries or touches he had Week 1 very often. Woodhead had 10 or more carries 6 times in 51 games (12%) and Vereen did so 8 times in 49 games (16%).
Also worth nothing is the Patriots RB workloads (total carries) have been on the decline . . . 485 in 2012, 435 in 2013, and 379 in 2014. Injuries last year likely playing into the low total, but NE seems to have settled in on Brady throwing a lot of short passes to serve as a rushing attack at time.
And I know this is cliche about Brady being angry but now BB seems to be pretty pissed off about all the accusations. I could picture him telling mcdaniels to go nuts and just embarrass teams. Brady also has a high stake in it because if his stats fall off now, people will say it's because of the deflated balls. He's gonna want to boost his numbers. Brb making trade offers for Brady.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Using the short passing game instead of run and in general running the ball less is only going to increase Dion Lewis' snap count, creating a higher weekly floor.
Watching Lewis, it's clear he can handle a workload that we haven't seen from the 3DB in the past. I see a road to much more value than most of the community. Others do as well.
The Pat's "Good luck figuring out RB Puzzle" is lazy analysis to me- at best missing out on a nice RB2/Flex and at worst possible weekly RB1/RB2 numbers. As others have pointed out there offense and schedule seem to favor Lewis getting a lot of snaps. Blount will absolutely get his carries, but if he falters or is injured, with Lewis performing this well, I fully believe he will be handling a workload far different than Vereen in 2013/14.
I have been shopping him a bit just to guage his value and everyone believes he is a flash in the pan, another Jonas Gray. In fantasy I try to find compelling and plausible situations where my evaluation runs counter to group-think before they are the hot waiver item. It happens every year, and I'm betting the still rather minuscule amount that Lewis is Forsett 2014.
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Road Warriors
Footballguy
Cadet was injured throughout camp, and isn't fully healthy. I thought the inactive was more due to injury and readiness without practicing most of camp. I think he is in their season long plans, otherwise I think they would have cut him. I could be wrong.
I was just linking these two backfield groupings because they are very similarly built.
1 big back
1 smaller, versatile back
1 smaller receiving back
Bolden
From most reports, Cadet isn't much of a runner ( I haven't done any research to from an opinion ). From watching Vereen, he isn't much of a runner from traditional sets. Woodhead was a decent runner, and from what little I've seen from Lewis, he appears to be as well.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Cadet is a receiver that plays out of the backfield. Hes not much of a runner, from what I saw last year of him in NO, he still looks better on the ground than James White.
I think Cadet will earn some snaps, but Lewis just looked too good for me to think Cadet will be in a position to supplant him.
I think Cadet will earn some snaps, but Lewis just looked too good for me to think Cadet will be in a position to supplant him.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
RBs get hurt; teams need backups. I don't know that not cutting a guy means he will get touches in an ideal season/situation (it could just mean they're not sold on White being able to step in and produce)
tone1oc
Footballguy
I fired up another site's projection machine app, which basically uses historical player/team data to project output at each position based on team variales..
The following table assumes that the Pats will be on average +4 pts ahead of opponent (similar to past few years) a 52/48 pass/run split (putting Brady at about 550 Att) and just below the league high mark in plays run (below Eagles, but near top)
I also have plugged in the individual players performance based on the past.. such as Gronk/Edlemans target %, catch rate & TD rate.
Further, I presupposed that Blount would get 50% of the carries at 4.4 ypc and that Lewis would get 33% of the carries (Vereen had about 25% last season) at 4.2ypc and receive about 15% of Brady's targets.
Even I was surprised at the projections, and to me this represents a pretty safe expectation of Dion Lewis' output this year.
POS PLAYER ruATTS ruYDS ruTDS TRGS RECS recYDS recYPR recTDS ADP RNK14 FP
RB1 Blount, LeGarrette 229.60 1010.25 6.66 28.02 18.22 140.12 7.69 0.62 30.00 20.00 176.91
RB2 Lewis, Dion 135.06 594.27 2.70 84.07 60.53 546.46 9.03 2.03 56.00 13.00 202.99
RB3 White, James 40.52 159.24 0.93 16.81 12.11 92.98 7.68 0.43 69.00 88.00 45.49
The following table assumes that the Pats will be on average +4 pts ahead of opponent (similar to past few years) a 52/48 pass/run split (putting Brady at about 550 Att) and just below the league high mark in plays run (below Eagles, but near top)
I also have plugged in the individual players performance based on the past.. such as Gronk/Edlemans target %, catch rate & TD rate.
Further, I presupposed that Blount would get 50% of the carries at 4.4 ypc and that Lewis would get 33% of the carries (Vereen had about 25% last season) at 4.2ypc and receive about 15% of Brady's targets.
Even I was surprised at the projections, and to me this represents a pretty safe expectation of Dion Lewis' output this year.
POS PLAYER ruATTS ruYDS ruTDS TRGS RECS recYDS recYPR recTDS ADP RNK14 FP
RB1 Blount, LeGarrette 229.60 1010.25 6.66 28.02 18.22 140.12 7.69 0.62 30.00 20.00 176.91
RB2 Lewis, Dion 135.06 594.27 2.70 84.07 60.53 546.46 9.03 2.03 56.00 13.00 202.99
RB3 White, James 40.52 159.24 0.93 16.81 12.11 92.98 7.68 0.43 69.00 88.00 45.49
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addicted2ff
Footballguy
Those projections seem pretty reasonable for one of his better outcomes. I tend to think Dion's TDs will be less than that because he's not a very strong runner(will get taken out when 10 yards to goal or less) and he doesn't have that home run breakaway speed to get those long TDs that other smaller backs have.
