tone1oc
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Dion Lewis (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter ex-ghost
- Start date
tone1oc
Footballguy
Realized I had Blount's target pct too high and also bumped his TD % up to just above league average
POS PLAYER ruATTS ruYDS ruTDS TRGS RECS recYDS recYPR recTDS ADP RNK14 FP
RB1 Blount, LeGarrette 229.60 1010.25 7.35 11.21 7.29 56.05 7.69 0.25 30.00 22.00 159.48
RB2 Lewis, Dion 135.06 594.27 2.70 84.07 60.53 546.46 9.03 2.03 56.00 13.00 202.99
RB3 White, James 40.52 159.24 0.93 16.81 12.11 92.98 7.68 0.43 69.00 88.00 45.49
This is PPR btw...
POS PLAYER ruATTS ruYDS ruTDS TRGS RECS recYDS recYPR recTDS ADP RNK14 FP
RB1 Blount, LeGarrette 229.60 1010.25 7.35 11.21 7.29 56.05 7.69 0.25 30.00 22.00 159.48
RB2 Lewis, Dion 135.06 594.27 2.70 84.07 60.53 546.46 9.03 2.03 56.00 13.00 202.99
RB3 White, James 40.52 159.24 0.93 16.81 12.11 92.98 7.68 0.43 69.00 88.00 45.49
This is PPR btw...
Last edited by a moderator:
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The issue I have with pretty much almost everyone's projections is taking a piecemeal snapshot and not the big picture. Here's what I have for NE this year . . .
PASSING:
Brady 388-610-40-9
Garoppolo 12-20-150-1-1
TOTAL: 400-630-4485-41-10
RUSHING:
Blount 210-975-12
Lewis 100-450-2
Bolden 60-260-2
Brady 40-50-1
White 30-100-0
Edelman 10-80-0
Cadet 10-35-0
TOTAL: 460-1950-17
RECEIVING:
Edelman 100-1050-6
Gronk 80-1200-18
Lewis 50-400-3
LaFell 45-590-5
Chandler 35-385-6
Amendola 30-330-2
Cadet 20-140-0
Dobson 15-175-1
Blount 10-70-0
White 5-35-0
Other WR 5-60-0
Other TE 5-50-0
TOTAL: 400-4485-41
So I have Lewis for 850 total yards and 5 TD (on 100 carries and 50 receptions). However, I think all those numbers may be too high. I still think Chandler and Amendola will somehow be involved. Obviously those are the projections if people stay healthy and starters would drop and backups would rise based on injuries.
PASSING:
Brady 388-610-40-9
Garoppolo 12-20-150-1-1
TOTAL: 400-630-4485-41-10
RUSHING:
Blount 210-975-12
Lewis 100-450-2
Bolden 60-260-2
Brady 40-50-1
White 30-100-0
Edelman 10-80-0
Cadet 10-35-0
TOTAL: 460-1950-17
RECEIVING:
Edelman 100-1050-6
Gronk 80-1200-18
Lewis 50-400-3
LaFell 45-590-5
Chandler 35-385-6
Amendola 30-330-2
Cadet 20-140-0
Dobson 15-175-1
Blount 10-70-0
White 5-35-0
Other WR 5-60-0
Other TE 5-50-0
TOTAL: 400-4485-41
So I have Lewis for 850 total yards and 5 TD (on 100 carries and 50 receptions). However, I think all those numbers may be too high. I still think Chandler and Amendola will somehow be involved. Obviously those are the projections if people stay healthy and starters would drop and backups would rise based on injuries.
Frenchy Fuqua
Footballguy
I'll take the under on 210 carries for Blount.
As a Pats fan, I hope Dion can be a full time RB. I hope he is the next great RB.
But I'm reading all this stuff comparing him to Barry Sanders and looking at his college work load as an indication of how he'll do in the NFL and it's crazy talk.
Dion looks exactly like the 3rd down receiving back NE has relied on for years. Is he the best one yet? Maybe. He was electric.
But IMO his usage will vary week to week depending on game plan - a spread, pass heavy, hurry up attack will use Dion.
And if the Colts can't defend a power run up the middle again this year , NE will hammer Blount all day against them
But I'm reading all this stuff comparing him to Barry Sanders and looking at his college work load as an indication of how he'll do in the NFL and it's crazy talk.
Dion looks exactly like the 3rd down receiving back NE has relied on for years. Is he the best one yet? Maybe. He was electric.
But IMO his usage will vary week to week depending on game plan - a spread, pass heavy, hurry up attack will use Dion.
And if the Colts can't defend a power run up the middle again this year , NE will hammer Blount all day against them
Last edited by a moderator:
Well right off the bat, Lafell's #'s are too high. He was terrific last year and now you're giving him a higher rec/game and yards/game avg coming off an injury to boot? No chance. I'd give him around 30-35 Rec's for 360 yds in those 9 games. I would also take the under for those Blount carries.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
LaFell had 74 catches last year in essentially 15 games (he had a minor injury and really didn't play much early in the year and IIRC only played a few snaps in one of them). So he had 4.93 receptions and 63.5 yds per game. Being on the PUP, he has to miss 6 games not 7 games. 10 games played x 4.5 rec/gm = 45 receptions. And I have him at 59 yds per game. So I am projecting him about the same as last year, actually slightly less.
Feel free to take the under on Blount's carries. If that happens, I don't necessarily someone else will take them on instead.
If anyone else wants to post a complete team projection (including lesser players), feel free. Bear in mind, however, that you can't allocate the entirety of the offense to 5 guys. That's what ends up skewing projections. No team is going to nd up having 500 receptions and 600 rushing attempts as a team. The team totals have to add up to a reasonable amount.
Feel free to take the under on Blount's carries. If that happens, I don't necessarily someone else will take them on instead.
If anyone else wants to post a complete team projection (including lesser players), feel free. Bear in mind, however, that you can't allocate the entirety of the offense to 5 guys. That's what ends up skewing projections. No team is going to nd up having 500 receptions and 600 rushing attempts as a team. The team totals have to add up to a reasonable amount.
tone1oc
Footballguy
I was only displaying a snapshot of RBs because I didn't feel a Gronk/Brady/Edelman projection was needed in the thread. But of course the projection took in account the big picture or the fact that there are other people on offense.Anarchy99 said:
I tweaked some things since last post so they are a bit different than before.. I did a pastebin because I didn't feel like aligning the columns on here
http://pastebin.com/raw.php?i=F7Wi7wqL
massraider
Footballguy
Hoss Style
Footballguy
I like many of your posts, and was with you on this one when you said "you have to look at the big picture" - and you posted your "big picture" - then you promptly disagreed with your big-picture.Anarchy99 said:
I'm not with you on Chandler or Amendola getting a bigger part than 70 total catches between them. I'd be interested on why you think they will get an uptick in involvement. Amendola played in 16 last year and had 27 catches, and I just don't see Brady really relying on him much (from watching last year - I know Amendola was a bit dinged up).
Lets take the Pats top 5 receivers for catches last year: Edleman (92), Gronk (82), Lafell (74), Vareen (52) & Amendola (27).
After that you had Wright (back up TE) with 26. He's with the Lions. Gronk will get a bit more since he didn't play full time in the early games last year, if I remember. I think you bump Lafell a very small amount since he will have another year under his belt in the system. Vareen is gone so spread those 52 around, mostly between the RBs.
So, Anarchy, you probably know the Pats much better than I - where do you see the passes going to? I see that there were 392 completions total last year for the Pats. I think that will go just above 400 this year since Brady started out slow last year. Lets say 410.
How would you divide those up, since you discredited your own list earlier? I think you're spot on with Amendola at 30. Genuinely curious (no snark) as to your projections, after you said your previous were too high.
*Edited* to add that I understand no one really has any idea about NE RBs from week to week. Let's just assume that Lewis hangs on to that "Vareen" role in some form, and actually seems to run better than Vareen.
Last edited by a moderator:
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
So, I do have a vested interest in Dion Lewis. Picked him up off waivers prior to the NE/Pitt game, but it wasn't a shot in the dark.
What we know about the Patriots is that they use a 'passing game' RB. Shane Vereen ha s filled this role the last 2 seasons. But before Vereen it was Danny Woodhead and Kevin Faulk. This is all easy review. But in terms of how Vereen was used last year, a couple of points.
1) If I were to tell you that in 2014, Vereen was 13th amongst all RB's in offensive snaps, would that surprise you? He logged 595...37/game. This production was logged whether the big back role was filled with either Ridley, Gray or Blount (or some combination).
2) Between the 3 big RB's on the Pats, they logged 448. They has 243 rushes. That means the when one of those RB's was in the game, there was a 54% chance they were getting the ball. IN 2014, there were only 2 other RB's who had a higher touch percentage when they were in the game (DeMarco Murray and Mark Ingram). And those touch percentages include their receptions. So what you see there is the big RB in NE is a very specialized role and one whose time on the field is very limited.
Now say what you will about Lewis, but:
1) He's only 24, which means that if he's successful, he could very much become part of the long term plan in NE.
2) He looked shifty as hell running the football while also showing the ability to fight for the extra yard(s).
3) Especially with LaFell out until at least Week 6, there is alot of room in the Pats passing game for him to produce and history shows that if indeed he has won the Vereen/Woodhead/Faulk role, he's going to be on the field alot.
There is alot of FLEX appeal here, and he may be able to emerge as a very, very viable RB2.
What we know about the Patriots is that they use a 'passing game' RB. Shane Vereen ha s filled this role the last 2 seasons. But before Vereen it was Danny Woodhead and Kevin Faulk. This is all easy review. But in terms of how Vereen was used last year, a couple of points.
1) If I were to tell you that in 2014, Vereen was 13th amongst all RB's in offensive snaps, would that surprise you? He logged 595...37/game. This production was logged whether the big back role was filled with either Ridley, Gray or Blount (or some combination).
2) Between the 3 big RB's on the Pats, they logged 448. They has 243 rushes. That means the when one of those RB's was in the game, there was a 54% chance they were getting the ball. IN 2014, there were only 2 other RB's who had a higher touch percentage when they were in the game (DeMarco Murray and Mark Ingram). And those touch percentages include their receptions. So what you see there is the big RB in NE is a very specialized role and one whose time on the field is very limited.
Now say what you will about Lewis, but:
1) He's only 24, which means that if he's successful, he could very much become part of the long term plan in NE.
2) He looked shifty as hell running the football while also showing the ability to fight for the extra yard(s).
3) Especially with LaFell out until at least Week 6, there is alot of room in the Pats passing game for him to produce and history shows that if indeed he has won the Vereen/Woodhead/Faulk role, he's going to be on the field alot.
There is alot of FLEX appeal here, and he may be able to emerge as a very, very viable RB2.
Appreciate Anarchy's detailed look at the Pat's projections in here. I picked up Lewis in both of my PPR leagues, value is much lower in non-PPR. When Blount comes back, I expect that he will continue to get the bulk of the carries. He isn't a guy you're going to be able to count on each week, barring injury.
Hoss Style
Footballguy
Ah, forgot about LeFell being on the PuP. That being said, I think that favors Lewis more, not less - if he holds on to that Vareen role.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Oh Rex..
IND didn't really throw it to their RBs on Sunday but they also kind of just generally floundered.
Chaka
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Lots of floundering. I have more faith in BB being able to adequately scheme vs. Rex then I do Caldwell at least. Not taking anything away from BUF's performance but IND wasn't even remotely prepared.
EDIT: I meant Pagano. Caldwell sucks too.
Last edited by a moderator:
RealReactions
Footballguy
Nah it was definitely more of indy floundering than getting floundered. Go back and watch luck. he didn't look normal. He under threw a deep ball to hilton that he usually hits and instead threw a pick. He misses throws short left and right. There was even a clip on NFL network where he couldn't lift his shoulder and Viniterie (spelling on his name is wrong i know don't feel like looking it up) had to put Lucks jacket on Luck for him.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Coach speak for "we are taking him out of the game." Rex is smart, a defensive genius. He just likes to play dumb.
Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
All you need to know is Belichick must love Lewis. He fumbled at the goal line and stayed in the game.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I live in NJ, watch a lot of Jets/Giants football..you are correct. Rex has always found a way to get to Brady in the past in an effort to throw off his timing and etc. BB worked around that in their first meeting last year however..
If you owned Vereen last year you'd remember he went off vs. NYJ (11/43/0 running 5/71/2 receiving) in that game. I think it's a real possibility Lewis gets utilized similarly (minus the carries, maybe half). I'm not about to advise starting him with any real confidence but it's definitely worth pondering.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
ponchsox
Footballguy
Mile High
Footballguy
Road Warriors
Footballguy
All I get out of that is that he doesn't like White. The only options were Bolden, White or Lewis. Bolden sucks as a RB. If White doesn't see the field after a Lewis fumble, he may never see the field.
ETA: I see Anarchy beat me to it.
Last edited by a moderator:
addicted2ff
Footballguy
I think he has confidence in Bolden in that Bolden won't fumble at a crucial time or blow a pass protection on Brady's blind side. He was getting the goal line carries.
I took it more as a need to get Dion more reps so he can develop into a trustable playmaker for the team or insurance if Blount gets hurt/gets arrested/sucks.
Pro Football Focus @PFF
RB Dion Lewis forced 8 missed tackles on 19 carries - best rate of any RB in week 1 with significant carries.
5:21 PM - 16 Sep 2015
RB Dion Lewis forced 8 missed tackles on 19 carries - best rate of any RB in week 1 with significant carries.
5:21 PM - 16 Sep 2015
Shutout
Footballguy
That's pretty impressive.
Related/not related, I saw where someone reported yesterday that they got the data back from all the RBs that they fitted with the devices that can measure on-field speed and David Johnson was the fastest Rb last week. Pretty cool how technology has advanced.
Chaka
Footballguy
Totally agree Indy's defense looks like a must start against for all your fantasy players every week. Their offensive line is also a big concern regardless of how quickly Luck makes reads and delivers the ball.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't necessarily find that to be a convincing argument. Rex Ryan knows how to scheme a defense and this is arguably his most talented unit ever. I think it is very possible that the defense threw Luck off his game early and never let up.
Chaka
Footballguy
Well there weren't a ton of other options. I think we'll see Blount as the primary guy the closer they get to the goal line.
I don't think there are going to be a lot of TD opportunities for Lewis in general with Gronk, Brady and Blount. He's gonna have to make his own bacon from distance.
Old Smiley
Footballguy
Just from the game last week, I really liked Lewis' foot speed. He could pop a few if play design fools the LBs.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
I'm jumping on the Dion Lewis hype train late after spending 11% of my budget to get him to pair with L Blount. I'm hoping I can run them both on weeks where they are prohibitive favorites.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Here were the Patrtiots team totals each game from the past three seasons. I ignored the Week 17 game last year against BUF where the game was irrelevant and the Patriots rested people.
vs. BUF
2014 361-4-0 passing, 50-0 rushing
2013 122-1-1 passing, 267-2 rushing
2013 288-2-1 passing, 158-0 rushing
vs. NYJ
2014 182-1-1 passing, 85-1 rushing
2014 261-3-0 passing, 63-0 rushing
2013 228-01 passing, 90-2 rushing
2013 185-1-0 passing, 54-0 rushing
In recent games, NE hasn't really run the ball well against Ryan with the Jets. They fared a little better a couple of seasons ago against the Bills, but I don't see them going for 250+ rushing yards again. I still think NE will go with their short yardage game a lot and then fill in with what Ryan gives them, whether that be passes on the outside, throws to the TE a little farther downfield in the seam, swing passes to the backs, or more rushing attempts. I don't see NE scoring in the 30's like they have frequently done in the past against Buffalo.
vs. BUF
2014 361-4-0 passing, 50-0 rushing
2013 122-1-1 passing, 267-2 rushing
2013 288-2-1 passing, 158-0 rushing
vs. NYJ
2014 182-1-1 passing, 85-1 rushing
2014 261-3-0 passing, 63-0 rushing
2013 228-01 passing, 90-2 rushing
2013 185-1-0 passing, 54-0 rushing
In recent games, NE hasn't really run the ball well against Ryan with the Jets. They fared a little better a couple of seasons ago against the Bills, but I don't see them going for 250+ rushing yards again. I still think NE will go with their short yardage game a lot and then fill in with what Ryan gives them, whether that be passes on the outside, throws to the TE a little farther downfield in the seam, swing passes to the backs, or more rushing attempts. I don't see NE scoring in the 30's like they have frequently done in the past against Buffalo.
Games against Rex Ryan defenses always favor the pass catching back. Rex is as blitz happy as they come. I can see many dump offs/screens to Lewis for nice gainers. PPR he should still be a nice flex option this week. Should have a floor of 10 Pts or so. His rushing yardage will likely be minimal tho
Old Smiley
Footballguy
Agree on low scoring. Vegas has the over/under at from 44 to 46. Think I'd go low. Old time slobberknocker. Should be fun.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
He looked untouchable on that TD run. He looks very very good.
