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*** Official *** Andrew Luck is overrated thread (1 Viewer)

CalBear

CalBear

Footballguy
An NFL team can't make a personnel move these days without being accused of trying to get the #1 pick in the draft. Andrew Luck has been anointed as the future savior of every franchise from Seattle to Jacksonville and beyond. This is a guy who had one mediocre season (56.3% completions, 13 TD on 288 attempts), and one excellent season (70.7% completions, 32 TD 8 INT) against mediocre competition, with only two games out of 12 against teams which finished in the BCS top 25. The one game he played against a top team (Oregon) he threw two second-half interceptions, one when down by seven and one in the end zone when down by 14.

Now going into 2011, he's lost four offensive lineman and his coach. His offensive line was stellar, allowing just nine sacks in 2009 and six in 2010. He looked great with no pressure, but that situation is likely to change this year.

I will predict that Luck will complete less than 65% of his passes this year, have less than last year's 32 TDs, more than last year's 8 INTs, and be sacked more than 10 times. He may still go #1 overall but his image will be a lot less rosy in 2012 than it is now.

Who's with me?

 
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He will not live up to the hype

Just my opinion.

Wish the kid well, but this much hype usually ends in disaster

 
The thing is, Luck's ratings aren't just because of his stats. He played in an NFL style offense, he showed a very good ability to go through his progressions, he has a strong arm, and his throws are deadly accurate.

He has a ton of pressure on him and he could end up folding, but he has a lot of positives and requirements to be an NFL QB.

 
I'll bite the bait though...

I've seen almost every throw of his Stanford career. Is he overrated? Well it's hard not to be when people call you the best QB prospect since Manning, the best QB prospect ever, etc. However, he's definitely the best QB prospect that I've seen in the past five years. I can't really think of anyone in recent memory who looked like such a lock to become at least a quality NFL starter.

The things that make him great:

- Accuracy.

- Poise under pressure.

- Anticipation.

- Reading the defense and making the right decision.

- Size.

- Mobility.

As Jim Harbaugh has said, there's really nothing about him that you'd change. The one thing that concerned me last season was his deep ball. He had a tendency to float it, which got him into trouble on a couple occasions. But for the most part he's a spectacular QB who effortlessly marches his team down the field. That's the thing you really notice when you watch his games. His offense almost never punts because he's so good at moving the chains.

Most of your points are weak. College teams lose players all the time. Stanford has recruited well enough to approximate the contributions of some of the departed offensive contributors. The "new coach" talk is not very compelling when you consider that David Shaw was Harbaugh's OC. He knows the personnel and he'll be using the same offensive system. I do think the WR corps is weaker than last season, but the TE group is a strong point that will help compensate.

Luck's stats have been good both seasons. They were incredible last season and very good during his freshman year. You pointed out that his completion percentage was low in 2009, but you failed to point out that his yards per attempt was basically identical in both seasons. 8.94 in 2009 and 8.97 in 2010. Those are phenomenal numbers. Among the very best in the country. The difference in completion percentage reflects a more feast-of-famine passing philosophy than what we saw last season, where he usually settled for the boring 7-8 yard gains instead of trying to hit home runs downfield.

The point about sacks doesn't strike me as a very compelling argument. He wasn't sacked much. Isn't that a good thing? You've implied that his low sack total was the result of a dominant offensive line. I'd suggest that Luck himself also played a role in the low sack total. He's good at sensing the pass rush, avoiding defenders, and making timely throws. Hence why he doesn't get sacked much. An inferior QB playing behind the same line would've taken more sacks because he would've held the ball longer, been slower to detect the rush, been easier to tackle, etc.

Will his stats go down? Probably, but only because they were so freakishly good last season. I'd still expect him to finish with a QB rating, YPA average, and TD:INT ratio in the ballpark of what we usually see from elite first round QB prospects.

 
'GroveDiesel said:
The thing is, Luck's ratings aren't just because of his stats. He played in an NFL style offense, he showed a very good ability to go through his progressions, he has a strong arm, and his throws are deadly accurate.

He has a ton of pressure on him and he could end up folding, but he has a lot of positives and requirements to be an NFL QB.
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Sure, he looks pretty good. I'm not happy he decided to stay at Stanford. I just think the hype is ridiculous. Why would anyone believe that an NFL team would intentionally tank a season in order to maybe get a chance to draft a guy who's had one good season in college behind a dominant offensive line? Leinart was similarly hyped after his junior year, and in his senior year a number of questions were raised about his play--questions which turned out to be well-founded. Who's to say the same won't happen to Luck, as his situation goes from being near-ideal to somewhat questionable?

 
Yea, and before last season people said he would struggle without Toby Gerhart around to take the pressure off.

Didn't happen.

He's the real deal. Closer to Bradford than Leinart. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't have another strong year that reinforces his 1.01 status.

 
'CalBear said:
Leinart was similarly hyped after his junior year, and in his senior year a number of questions were raised about his play--questions which turned out to be well-founded. Who's to say the same won't happen to Luck, as his situation goes from being near-ideal to somewhat questionable?
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That's incorrect. Nowhere was Leinart as hyped as an NFL-lock stud QB like Luck is, nor did Leinart "look the part" as much as Luck did last season.

 
A Cal Bear fan would not "disparage" a Stanford player would he.... Just poking you....

Can Luck live up to the ridiculous hype? Maybe, but there are many that are going to be tired of hearing his name all the time by the sports press/announcers and will have a lot of haters because of this. And I am quite certain the press loves to do this over the top hype so they can point at themselves and say "see how smart I am" if they attain the hype. And of course if they don't attain the hype, they can then tear down the player and have weeks/months/years of commentary to again say "see how smart I am".

I have heard enough coaches/scouts on the radio shows since mid last season that I am comfortable saying Luck can read defenses and determine the appropriate place to throw the ball better than several current veteran staring QBs in the NFL and all the 1st/2nd year QBs except for 1 or 2. I do expect a down grade in his stats because Stanford lost a lot of players on offense and defense to graduation. Luck will not be in a lot of favorable offensive situations this season.

 
We'll catalog this one right next to Pickles' epic "Eli Manning to suck in the NFL" thread

 
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My concern is that IF Luck has a mediocre 2011 season, people will dismiss it and assume that his 2010 season will be more representative of what his NFL career will be like. Kind of like when a golfer shoots 110 but can't stop talking about his 2 birdies.

 
The thing about Luck that really stands out to me is the way he audibles at the line of scrimmage. He processes the information so quickly and makes the correct changes. See the Vatech game last year for examples.

Luck is the best college QB prospect I think I have seen in my lifetime.

As Mike Lombardi said the other day, every team in the NFL would draft Luck #1 regardless of who they had on the roster. There are simply not enough picks you could trade to get the appropraite value for Luck. He is a once in a generation type player and you can be certain no GM wants to be the guy that traded him away.

Cowherd talked last year that he has doubts he would go to Buff or Cincy since they were horrible franchises, I really dont see Luck pulling a power move here.

 
'pantherclub said:
Cowherd talked last year that he has doubts he would go to Buff or Cincy since they were horrible franchises, I really dont see Luck pulling a power move here.
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His dad will probably provide guidance and steer him in the right direction just as Archie did for Eli. He was also an NFL QB and is currently the A.D. at WVU.
 
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This reminds me of when Brian Brohm (Louisville) was the concensus #1 pick and he opted to stay in school... He easily lost $50 million dollars that year.

 
'Late225 said:
This reminds me of when Brian Brohm (Louisville) was the concensus #1 pick and he opted to stay in school... He easily lost $50 million dollars that year.
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I don't think Brohm was ever the consensus #1 overall pick, but he was definitely projected as a 1st rounder.
 
'Joe Summer said:
'Late225 said:
This reminds me of when Brian Brohm (Louisville) was the concensus #1 pick and he opted to stay in school... He easily lost $50 million dollars that year.
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I don't think Brohm was ever the consensus #1 overall pick, but he was definitely projected as a 1st rounder.
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He also had possibly the worst flaw you could have as a QB, that he couldn't handle any sort of pocket pressure whatsoever. He would panic when he finally did face it.
 
'Joe Summer said:
'Late225 said:
This reminds me of when Brian Brohm (Louisville) was the concensus #1 pick and he opted to stay in school... He easily lost $50 million dollars that year.
Click to expand...
I don't think Brohm was ever the consensus #1 overall pick, but he was definitely projected as a 1st rounder.
Click to expand...
He was..I think it was one of Kiper's preseason things. There was also a Kentucky QB and a UNLV QB a few years ago who were #1 overall prospects...that status of each lasted about 1 week into the season.
 
'azgroover said:
'Joe Summer said:
'Late225 said:
This reminds me of when Brian Brohm (Louisville) was the concensus #1 pick and he opted to stay in school... He easily lost $50 million dollars that year.
Click to expand...
I don't think Brohm was ever the consensus #1 overall pick, but he was definitely projected as a 1st rounder.
Click to expand...
He was..I think it was one of Kiper's preseason things. There was also a Kentucky QB and a UNLV QB a few years ago who were #1 overall prospects...that status of each lasted about 1 week into the season.
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That doesn't mean he was a "consensus" #1 pick, and certainly nothing like what Luck was at the end of last season or the beginning of this season. I definitely remember Brohm being on some board's as the #1, but that was heading into the start of his junior season (2006). By the end of the year, he was considered a likely first rounder. Came back to school and fell further.
 
'CalBear said:
Why would anyone believe that an NFL team would intentionally tank a season
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Separate from whether or not Luck is overhyped, I'm with you completely here.No team in the NFL is going to tank an entire season for an outside shot of drafting a guy that might get hurt on his last college snap, or find a higher calling than football, or one of a million reasons that the player doesn't wind up coming to the NFL.
 
As a Cal fan, I can understand you're being sick of him. But in a year when the likes of Jake Locker, Andy Dalton, Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton and Christian Ponder were deemed worthy of not only high picks, but potential starting QB jobs this year, I don't think we can overestimate how huge it will be to land Luck for a team next April.

 
'CalBear said:
'GroveDiesel said:
The thing is, Luck's ratings aren't just because of his stats. He played in an NFL style offense, he showed a very good ability to go through his progressions, he has a strong arm, and his throws are deadly accurate.

He has a ton of pressure on him and he could end up folding, but he has a lot of positives and requirements to be an NFL QB.
Click to expand...
Sure, he looks pretty good. I'm not happy he decided to stay at Stanford. I just think the hype is ridiculous. Why would anyone believe that an NFL team would intentionally tank a season in order to maybe get a chance to draft a guy who's had one good season in college behind a dominant offensive line? Leinart was similarly hyped after his junior year, and in his senior year a number of questions were raised about his play--questions which turned out to be well-founded. Who's to say the same won't happen to Luck, as his situation goes from being near-ideal to somewhat questionable?
Click to expand...
By who? He was talked about as a top 10 pick, but I don't remember anyone suggesting he was perhaps the best QB prospect in college history. In fact, a lot of scouts (rightfully) questioned his "talent" considering he stood in the pocket for as long as he wanted and threw rainbows to WRs that didn't have a DB within 5-10 yards of them. It was also pointed out that he couldn't move at all even if he wanted to. Luck isn't similar at all.

 
'GDogg said:
'CalBear said:
Leinart was similarly hyped after his junior year, and in his senior year a number of questions were raised about his play--questions which turned out to be well-founded. Who's to say the same won't happen to Luck, as his situation goes from being near-ideal to somewhat questionable?
Click to expand...
By who? He was talked about as a top 10 pick, but I don't remember anyone suggesting he was perhaps the best QB prospect in college history.
Click to expand...
Everyone expected him to be the obvious #1 pick in the draft, and was viewed as the most NFL-ready of the QBs in 2004. There's no question the Niners would have taken him at 1.01.
In fact, a lot of scouts (rightfully) questioned his "talent" considering he stood in the pocket for as long as he wanted and threw rainbows to WRs that didn't have a DB within 5-10 yards of them. It was also pointed out that he couldn't move at all even if he wanted to. Luck isn't similar at all.
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I don't remember seeing any questions about his talent after his junior year. I remember lots of stories about how he'd still be the #1 QB in the draft the following year, after he decided to go back to school.
 
'CalBear said:
'GDogg said:
'CalBear said:
Leinart was similarly hyped after his junior year, and in his senior year a number of questions were raised about his play--questions which turned out to be well-founded. Who's to say the same won't happen to Luck, as his situation goes from being near-ideal to somewhat questionable?
Click to expand...
By who? He was talked about as a top 10 pick, but I don't remember anyone suggesting he was perhaps the best QB prospect in college history.
Click to expand...
Everyone expected him to be the obvious #1 pick in the draft, and was viewed as the most NFL-ready of the QBs in 2004. There's no question the Niners would have taken him at 1.01.
In fact, a lot of scouts (rightfully) questioned his "talent" considering he stood in the pocket for as long as he wanted and threw rainbows to WRs that didn't have a DB within 5-10 yards of them. It was also pointed out that he couldn't move at all even if he wanted to. Luck isn't similar at all.
Click to expand...
I don't remember seeing any questions about his talent after his junior year. I remember lots of stories about how he'd still be the #1 QB in the draft the following year, after he decided to go back to school.
Click to expand...
Thats revisionist history. Leinert has never had the rep for having a strong arm.
 
'CalBear said:
Everyone expected him to be the obvious #1 pick in the draft, and was viewed as the most NFL-ready of the QBs in 2004. There's no question the Niners would have taken him at 1.01.
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Sure, but that was a terrible draft for QBs. Alex Smith went #1 overall and it was pretty much conceded that he wasn't really a #1 overall QB, but the Niners needed one. There were questions about Rodgers as to whether he was actually good or whether it was Tedford's system.But, this is beside the point. Leinart was considered among the best (I'll even concede he was considered the best) in that given year. That was it. That doesn't mean anything with regard to "similar hype" of Luck who is considered the best this year, and maybe the best QB prospect ever.

I don't remember seeing any questions about his talent after his junior year. I remember lots of stories about how he'd still be the #1 QB in the draft the following year, after he decided to go back to school.
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There were several questions about his physical tools. His arm strength has long be cited as a weakness of his. But, scouts thought he had intangibles and was a great field manager. Kiper simply fell in love with him and hyped the crap out of him for that draft class.And, there weren't many great pro prospects for 2006 projecting out before the 2005 draft. Vince Young had a fantastic season, which catapulted him up draft boards. Then, Cutler wowed everyone at the combine. And, Leinart's warts came out (terrible arm and questionable mental makeup).

We'll never know, but I would guess it wouldn't have been a slam dunk as #1 overall even if he came out in 2005. Remember, he had surgery in that offseason. So, he would have either showcased his weak arm strength (even weaker with the elbow injury) or not worked out and questions about his arm (and mental makeup) would have come out.

 
Kiper said Jimmy Clausen would be all pro in 3 years. That should negate any and everything he says from now until eternity.

Kiper misses way more than he hits.

 
lol kiper predicted Matt Barkley would go #1 3 years ago but has since changed his tune. Even an idiot like Kiper knows Luck is a lock at #1

 
'CalBear said:
I will predict that Luck will complete less than 65% of his passes this year, have less than last year's 32 TDs, more than last year's 8 INTs, and be sacked more than 10 times. He may still go #1 overall but his image will be a lot less rosy in 2012 than it is now.Who's with me?
Click to expand...
Through 7 games:71.8% completions20 TD passes3 INTs2 sacksGot any stock tips?
 
'EBF said:
'CalBear said:
I will predict that Luck will complete less than 65% of his passes this year, have less than last year's 32 TDs, more than last year's 8 INTs, and be sacked more than 10 times. He may still go #1 overall but his image will be a lot less rosy in 2012 than it is now.Who's with me?
Click to expand...
Through 7 games:71.8% completions20 TD passes3 INTs2 sacksGot any stock tips?
Click to expand...
Got any competition? Let's see how he does against USC and Oregon before we crown him.
 
I agree that Stanford hasn't played anyone good this season, but even if he has absolute howlers against Oregon and USC, he's still likely to exceed the numbers you predicted. The guy with the Cal helmet as his avatar probably isn't the most objective source for Andrew Luck analysis.

 
'EBF said:
'CalBear said:
I will predict that Luck will complete less than 65% of his passes this year, have less than last year's 32 TDs, more than last year's 8 INTs, and be sacked more than 10 times. He may still go #1 overall but his image will be a lot less rosy in 2012 than it is now.Who's with me?
Click to expand...
Through 7 games:71.8% completions20 TD passes3 INTs2 sacksGot any stock tips?
Click to expand...
He is getting tremendous hype though. He has to be the next Peyton to live up to it. I do think he is going to be a great QB in the league. But I wonder how he will fare once he starts getting knocked around a little. That will have to wait...
 
Yea, I can agree with that. The hyperbole is a bit ridiculous. I do think he's a very safe bet to become a good-to-great NFL starter though.

He has had a couple shaky moments under pressure and his deep ball accuracy is a bit inconsistent. Other than that, he doesn't have any obvious flaws.

 
You can think Luck is a great, fantastic, stupendous prospect and still not want to read every idea that pops into someone's head about the kid. Looking forward to the next 4 months of Shark pool threads:

If Team X (team that poster is fan of) loses another game, would they trade their next 5 1st rounders for Luck? I think they would......

Team X WILL trade for the number 1 pick!! (mark it down)

I think that Team X should trade their current QB to the Dolphins, and draft Luck (Join Date of OP: Oct 2011)

"If Andrew Luck was a hot dog, would you eat him? I know I would!"

 
'CalBear said:
'EBF said:
'CalBear said:
I will predict that Luck will complete less than 65% of his passes this year, have less than last year's 32 TDs, more than last year's 8 INTs, and be sacked more than 10 times. He may still go #1 overall but his image will be a lot less rosy in 2012 than it is now.Who's with me?
Click to expand...
Through 7 games:71.8% completions20 TD passes3 INTs2 sacksGot any stock tips?
Click to expand...
Got any competition? Let's see how he does against USC and Oregon before we crown him.
Click to expand...
Southern Cal's pass defense is terrible (#104 in the country). That's actually a step down in competition from what Luck has faced.
 
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