Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Matt Waldman

Josh Gordon Everything Thread

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, foxco said:

Way high for me. Just couldn't bring myself to take him as anything more than a WR 4 with upside.

WR3 in the mid-6th with a huge run of WEs before him? I don’t mind the gamble. 

I got Lockett one pick before & like that way more, and Mike Williams went 2 picks after & I like him better too. 

But overall not a terrible pick. :shrug:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

in my .5 ppr dyno I have to choose bw keeping gordon and signing him to a contract (anywhere from 1-5 years my choice) at  a $20 price tag OR keep Anthony Miller at $10.  

My team otherwise is stacked and ready for a title run.  Am I crazy to keep Gordon and let miller walk in FA?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He has topped 50 catches once in his life (2013.)

I don’t mean as a pro. That’s including his h.s. and college career.

Maybe this year will be different?

:shrug:

  • Love 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Quote

Austin Gayle @PFF_AustinGayle

Josh Gordon's career yards per route run average (2.12) ranks 10th at his position since 2012.

We all deserve a full season of Flash Gordon & Tom Brady. We just do.

 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/25/2019 at 6:31 PM, Soulfly3 said:

i like risk.

VROOM VROOM

Count me in. I took him as a boom pick at 7.02 in 12 team ppr. I am gambling my season on him being at his floor, a wr2..  

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

So, we get it.  History says Gordon will regress.

History says a lot of things.

If only this was 2007. Moss came in and completely changed the receiving route trees and worked with Brady and the coaching staff to re-imagine the offense. He essentially quadrupled the play book. He sat down with Brady, McDaniels, and BB and explained to them the concept of in-play route adjustments based on what defenders were doing while a play was developing. He literally broke down game film and explained where the holes in the defense would be. I don't see Gordon having that level of impact on the offense. I don't see the 2013 version of Josh Gordon walking through the door.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Josh Gordon’s 2013 season:

• 3rd-of-94 WRs in yards per route run

• 55% catch rate

• 10.4 yards per target

• 111.8 QB rating when targeted

• 11.4 targets per game

Gordon with Patriots in 2018:

• 14th-of-96 in YPPR

• 59% catch rate

• 10.6 YPT

• 117.8 rating

• 6.2 T/G

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

Josh Gordon’s 2013 season:

• 3rd-of-94 WRs in yards per route run

• 55% catch rate

• 10.4 yards per target

• 111.8 QB rating when targeted

• 11.4 targets per game

Gordon with Patriots in 2018:

• 14th-of-96 in YPPR

• 59% catch rate

• 10.6 YPT

• 117.8 rating

• 6.2 T/G

 

On 8/26/2019 at 7:38 AM, BobbyLayne said:

He has topped 50 catches once in his life (2013.)

I don’t mean as a pro. That’s including his h.s. and college career.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/25/2019 at 9:34 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

WR3 in the mid-6th with a huge run of WEs before him? I don’t mind the gamble. 

I got Lockett one pick before & like that way more, and Mike Williams went 2 picks after & I like him better too. 

But overall not a terrible pick. :shrug:

I agree with you there, I'm looking for Lockett, if not him Mike Williams and if not him it's between DJ Moore and Josh Gordon and might just go with Gordon if that's the case.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, N Zone said:

I agree with you there, I'm looking for Lockett, if not him Mike Williams and if not him it's between DJ Moore and Josh Gordon and might just go with Gordon if that's the case.

I have a feeling Gordon will be a better play after 2-3 games.

He might be a good buy-low candidate until he gets his legs under him. 

Once he’s had time to develop chemistry with the team/Brady again, he’s likely to be a solid weekly play. 

Unless he wakes up one of these weeks & decides he doesn’t want to be. :shrug:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Over/under/under

We’re talking about week 1, right? 

Over, obviously. Just ask @Soulfly3

:pickle:

  • Like 1
  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

Josh Gordon’s 2013 season:

• 3rd-of-94 WRs in yards per route run

• 55% catch rate

• 10.4 yards per target

• 111.8 QB rating when targeted

• 11.4 targets per game

Gordon with Patriots in 2018:

• 14th-of-96 in YPPR

• 59% catch rate

• 10.6 YPT

• 117.8 rating

• 6.2 T/G

This is a fantastic post. Gloss over it and make excuses and fun all you want, folks, but as a great man recently said, men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie.

Calibrate the targets more evenly and the YPRR even ends up much closer to 3rd than 14th. I don't see a 1st half sexplosion here, but come later in the season stretch when games need to be won and chemistry sets, look out for a nasty PPG run, in classic Bellychicken style. Assuming Josh keeps his head straight throughout, of course. That is the eternal caveat here. Draft accordingly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, LawFitz said:

This is a fantastic post. Gloss over it and make excuses and fun all you want, folks, but as a great man recently said, men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie.

Numbers don’t lie but generally you can cherry pick stats to promulgate whatever narrative you want out there.

Thats more of a general comment and not necessarily related to the stats you quoted - but they hardly tell the whole story.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we assume:

1. Gordon plays 16 games

2. Gordon keeps DT and Harry on the bench

3. Opponents have to respect a strong running game

4. Edelman displays his historic TD rate

5. 45/600/4 from the tight end position

6. Brady bounces back from 2018

What do we project Gordon's numbers to be?

Obviously assumptions 1 and 6 are the points that critics would attack.  But for the purposes of this exercise, what is the ceiling?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

If we assume:

2. Gordon keeps DT and Harry on the bench

unless gordon is hurt or smoking rocks, this one is as close to an absolute as is possible

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Tanner9919 said:

are we overlooking the new Law Firm, Jakobi Meyers

https://youtu.be/eQbsPH3jt3Q

 

I’ve posted my feelings on Meyers in so many threads but here are the highlights.

Generally speaking, the more players play in the preseason in NE, the less valued they are by the team. Meyers but up great numbers but only with  Hoyer and Stidham. 

He put up those numbers playing with and against back ups, with vanilla play calls on offense and defense. He didn’t do much when he played with Brady and Brady didn’t really look his way that often. He did two things that would not help his cause. He stopped running on a route and Brady put the ball in the air (a potential interception in the making) and he had a dumb holding call away from the play that negated a 30 yard rushing play.

He’s clearly behind Edelman and Gordon. He likely will be behind Thomas, Harry, and Dorsett. Dorsett played 10 minutes with Brady last week and had 5 receptions. 

Brady throws to receivers he trusts  I don’t think Meyers is in that circle of trust yet, and his comments after the game the other night essentially echoes that.

Meyers will be an understudy to Edelman much like Edelman was an understudy to Welker. Edelman ended up with something like 37-369-1 his first year.

I’ve also posted that fantasy rookie receivers in NE have essentially been fantasy irrelevant in the BB/TB era. That applies for Harry too. 

And I didn’t even mention the resurgence in the running game and the defense. Add everything together and I would be very surprised if Meyers does much this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Numbers don’t lie but generally you can cherry pick stats to promulgate whatever narrative you want out there.

Thats more of a general comment and not necessarily related to the stats you quoted - but they hardly tell the whole story.

But in regards to this is pretty telling and there really is no grey area to it.  Cut and dry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

If we assume:

1. Gordon plays 16 games

2. Gordon keeps DT and Harry on the bench

3. Opponents have to respect a strong running game

4. Edelman displays his historic TD rate

5. 45/600/4 from the tight end position

6. Brady bounces back from 2018

What do we project Gordon's numbers to be?

Obviously assumptions 1 and 6 are the points that critics would attack.  But for the purposes of this exercise, what is the ceiling?

IMO, what Cooks put up a couple of years ago. The issue with Gordon will be how many targets he sees. In games where Gronk didn’t play (25 games), Edelman has averaged almost 12 targets a game. White averaged 8 targets a game. 

Not included in your post is how strong the defense appears to be this year. There’s a chance NE runs a ton and keeps to the move the sticks passing attack, conservative style football. I am sure they will then open things up to pick their spots for chunk yardage plays, but that doesn’t real equate to tons of targets for Gordon. 

IMO, Gordon helps the rest of the offense more than the offense helps Gordon. He will draw attention and should open up running lanes and underneath routes. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, pantherclub said:

But in regards to this is pretty telling and there really is no grey area to it.  Cut and dry.

The numbers also show that Gordon hasn’t played a 16 game season since 2012. The numbers also show that he did not see anywhere near the targets he saw in 2013 in Cleveland. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

The numbers also show that Gordon hasn’t played a 16 game season since 2012. The numbers also show that he did not see anywhere near the targets he saw in 2013 in Cleveland. 

But the overall point is the 50 catches.  There is enough data now to draw a reasonable conclusion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is 444 pages the all-time record for longest player thread? Has to be, right?

Mods or @Joe Bryant - any way to look that up easily? Just curious...

Two more weeks! Can’t wait.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

But the overall point is the 50 catches.  There is enough data now to draw a reasonable conclusion.

He had 50 catches his first season and 87 his second. The "over 50 catches" part was slightly misleading.
He barely played in the other seasons until last year and caught 40 passes in 11 games for the Patriots. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

He had 50 catches his first season and 87 his second. The "over 50 catches" part was slightly misleading.
He barely played in the other seasons until last year and caught 40 passes in 11 games for the Patriots. 

Do you have no appreciation for Gordon getting moderate targets after having been with the team a few games, and no TC?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't mess with my fantasy here, please. I have visions of a clean and sober and happy and well Josh Gordon playing catch with a still hungry Tom Brady adding to his ridiculous legacy and racking up crazy statistics, eclipsing the Brady/Moss season of lore. It's my fantasy.  Let it be. Thank you very much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, cloppbeast said:

Do you have no appreciation for Gordon getting moderate targets after having been with the team a few games, and no TC?

IMO, the answer lies somewhere between the number of targets he got last year and the insane amount of targets he got in Cleveland in 2013. I would guess that number would be closer to his 2018 target rate than his 2013 target rate based on the Browns roster and style of play and the Patriots roster and style of play.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Funny.  No one is talking about what great shape Tom Brady is in.  He posted video of him and Gordon working out.  Him trying to run probably has nothing to do with that, ammi rite? 

The Patriots have revamped their receiving corps based on what they saw Gordon be able to do last year.  So the logical conclusion is Josh Gordon isn't going to be a centerpiece of the offense this year..... (facetious).  

In seriousness, this should be JGs best year in the league.  I don't know if it shows up statistically, but I think it might.  Really depends on the rest of the Pats receiving corps and JGs health.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

IMO, the answer lies somewhere between the number of targets he got last year and the insane amount of targets he got in Cleveland in 2013. I would guess that number would be closer to his 2018 target rate than his 2013 target rate based on the Browns roster and style of play and the Patriots roster and style of play.

The targets he got in Cleveland are only insane if you don't believe he's a top tier wide receiver. 160-170 is right around AB, DeAndre, Odell ect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

But in regards to this is pretty telling and there really is no grey area to it.  Cut and dry.

Those particular stats, yes. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

The targets he got in Cleveland are only insane if you don't believe he's a top tier wide receiver. 160-170 is right around AB, DeAndre, Odell ect.

I don't believe Gordon is the same player he was in 2013, but that is mostly irrelevant.

The Browns threw the ball 681 times that year. They ranked bottom 5 in rushing attempts. They were constantly behind with a bottom 10 defense and bottom 5 offense. Willis McGahee led the team in rushing with 377 yards. Gordon was one of two players with more than 2 total TD on the team. He was one of two players over 500 receiving yards. Gordon WAS the offense, and they just forced the ball to him as they just aired it out for four quarters to try to stay in games.

Does that REMOTELY sound like the Patriots situation?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I don't believe Gordon is the same player he was in 2013, but that is mostly irrelevant.

The Browns threw the ball 681 times that year. They ranked bottom 5 in rushing attempts. They were constantly behind with a bottom 10 defense and bottom 5 offense. Willis McGahee led the team in rushing with 377 yards. Gordon was one of two players with more than 2 total TD on the team. He was one of two players over 500 receiving yards. Gordon WAS the offense, and they just forced the ball to him as they just aired it out for four quarters to try to stay in games.

Does that REMOTELY sound like the Patriots situation?

That's one way to a buttload of targets, but not the only way. Deandre Hopkins gets a ton in a much different situation.

I want to point out I don't expect Gordon to get 160 targets. Probably more like Cooks in 2017. I dont know though. Trying to predict what the Patriots will do is not always straight forward.

Edited by cloppbeast
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

That's one way to a buttload of targets, but not the only way. Deandre Hopkins gets a ton in a much different situation.

I want to point out I don't expect Gordon to get 160 targets. Probably more like Cooks in 2017. I dont know though. Trying to predict what the Patriots will do is not always straight forward.

I posted that to me Gordon's upside was that of Cooks, but even that seems like a poor comparison as that was the season NE played without Edelman. I think another reason for concern target wise for Gordon is he typically runs deeper and longer time required to develop routes. NE doesn't run a lot of those and instead tries to have Brady unload the ball in 2 seconds to avoid getting hit. That's why guys like Edelman and White get a ton of targets.

So sure, we can concoct some crazy upside scenarios for Gordon. Moss was 30 his monster year in NE. Gordon is 28. There is a greater than 0 chance that Gordon has a season for the ages. But I wouldn't put the chances of that as being much better than winning the lottery.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I posted that to me Gordon's upside was that of Cooks, but even that seems like a poor comparison as that was the season NE played without Edelman. I think another reason for concern target wise for Gordon is he typically runs deeper and longer time required to develop routes. NE doesn't run a lot of those and instead tries to have Brady unload the ball in 2 seconds to avoid getting hit. That's why guys like Edelman and White get a ton of targets.

So sure, we can concoct some crazy upside scenarios for Gordon. Moss was 30 his monster year in NE. Gordon is 28. There is a greater than 0 chance that Gordon has a season for the ages. But I wouldn't put the chances of that as being much better than winning the lottery.

The difference between Cooks and Gordon is the Red Zone.  TDs count. Especially sans Gronk. 

ETA Cooks is 5'10".   Gordon is 6'4".   They both run approximately the same speed.   And Gordon was most successful on slants and in routes, where he could effectively box out smaller corners.  

Edited by Hairy Snowman
  • Thinking 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Hairy Snowman said:

The difference between Cooks and Gordon is the Red Zone.  TDs count. Especially sans Gronk. 

NE scored 47 TD on offense last year and Gronk had 3 of them, The RB corps had 23 of them. In the post season, NE scored 11 times and the RB's accounted for 9 of them. The RB's scored 55% of their offensive TD's between the two. Brady frequently audibled at the goal line to either running plays or dump offs to White. Maybe that will change this year, but NE still managed to get the ball into the end zone pretty well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

Is 444 pages the all-time record for longest player thread? Has to be, right?

Mods or @Joe Bryant - any way to look that up easily? Just curious...

Two more weeks! Can’t wait.

It’s 2nd.

Assuming the three Christine Michael threadS are counted as a single thread, given that the mods asked for the restarts because they were getting too long for the software at the time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Hairy Snowman said:

The difference between Cooks and Gordon is the Red Zone.  TDs count. Especially sans Gronk. 

He also is a much better possession receiver than Cooks, who was something of a one trick pony. Consider also, without Gronk, Gordon is the best option down field against man-to-man. That back shoulder is deadly. From what I saw last year, Brady was not reluctant throwing it up where only Gordon could get it.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone know what the longest time is between 1000 yard receiving seasons? I am guessing if Gordon goes over 1000 yards this year he may hold that record as he hasn't had 1000 yards since 2013. I'm not saying it won't happen but I would say history says it's not very probable.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

NE scored 47 TD on offense last year and Gronk had 3 of them, The RB corps had 23 of them. In the post season, NE scored 11 times and the RB's accounted for 9 of them. The RB's scored 55% of their offensive TD's between the two. Brady frequently audibled at the goal line to either running plays or dump offs to White. Maybe that will change this year, but NE still managed to get the ball into the end zone pretty well.

Something is changing.  The WRs look nothing like last years. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Hairy Snowman said:

Something is changing.  The WRs look nothing like last years. 

Last year their top receivers were Edelman, Gordon, and Dorsett. This year, their top receivers to start the season are Edelman, Gordon, and Dorsett. Thomas and Harry are unknowns and one of them will probably end up taking snaps from Dorsett. Not sure their receivers are all that different.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Id honestly be FLOORED if he didnt hit 70 catches if he plays the season. 

That's my floor for him. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Last year their top receivers were Edelman, Gordon, and Dorsett. This year, their top receivers to start the season are Edelman, Gordon, and Dorsett. Thomas and Harry are unknowns and one of them will probably end up taking snaps from Dorsett. Not sure their receivers are all that different.

2 things: no Gronk, and Gordon didn't just get signed midseason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

If we're forced to assume a full 16 game season (which we do with just about any projection for any other player), I'm not sure how he doesn't hit 1,000 yards. 

Even a somewhat conservative projection of 4k passing yards from Brady....how would you divide that up without Gordon getting to 1k yards (again, if assuming a full 16 games)?

Edited by matttyl
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.