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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (1 Viewer)

No league scoring tool? Guess I'll have to do this the old fashioned way. Let's see where my team is at...

MATT RYAN - 41.45

ARIAN FOSTER - 20.50

PEYTON HILLIS - 5.40

{Taiwan Jones still on deck... definitely vulnerable at RB if Foster goes down}

JULIO JONES - 28.80

PIERRE GARCON - 20.90

JAMES JONES - 18.10

(I have a lot of Joneses on my team.)

AARON HERNANDEZ - 21.40

GREG OLSEN - 14.60

(Not a good sign when I have 3 TEs and they all outscore my best potential flex WR/RB.)

JASON HANSON - 13.00

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - 5.00

GRAND TOTAL = 189.15

Not bad for a team that sucks.

 
Never remember what I did the previous year so I will post this year's entry with some comments. If nothing else, I can review it next year:

Matt Ryan $19 Hoping he will be almost every week starter

Andrew Luck $11 Hoping Indy airs it out when trailing each week

Jake Locker $9 Always worry about injuries- liked that I could handcuff with Hasselbeck for $3-

Matt Hasselbeck $3 Almost handcuffed Sanchez/Tebow instead of buying Luck. Would've been my 1st 5 QB entry I'm sure

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Darren McFadden $26 Think he could be #1 RB if healthy. Bought 2 OAK backups just in case

Steven Jackson $22 Not glamorous choice these days, but should get a ton of work

BenJarvus Green-Ellis $17 Not glamorous either, but should be steady RB2 or flex

Pierre Thomas $10 Underrated among many N.O. RB, hope he's a steal

Mike Goodson $6 McFadden handcuff

Isaiah Pead $6 Jackson handcuff

Jonathan Dwyer $4 Not impressed with Redman. Hoping $4 buys the Steelers starting RB

Cedric Benson $3 Don't like owning a GB RB, but at kicker prices... why not?

Ronnie Brown $2 Not expecting much, but with Ryan Matthews hurt already, he's worth a deuce...

Taiwan Jones $2 McFadden handcuff #2

Never expected to have so many RB, but too many bargain plays to pass up IMO

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Antonio Brown $17 Liked all the $17 WR... hope I picked the right ones

Eric Decker $17 Hoping for many receptions.

Reggie Wayne $15 Expect lots of targets

Pierre Garcon $14 Like what I saw in preseason

Devery Henderson $4 Just hoping for a few long bombs to make him a starter in a few weeks.

James Jones $3 He's bound to be a starter a few weeks and way too cheap.

Already wish I had a couple more WR, so I can't afford injuries to these guys.

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Brent Celek $12

Greg Olsen $11

Toyed with idea of getting a stud, but instead tried these 2. They are on lots of sleeper lists, so hopefully they take the next step

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Rob Bironas $3

Robbie Gould $3

Matt Prater $3

3 good kickers with different bye weeks. That's all the thought that went into it.

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Arizona Cardinals $4

Seattle Seahawks $4

Considered adding the Rams and 49ers Defense too. Not impressed with NFC West offenses.

 
The Megatron/Julio/Marshall combo at WR is looking very strong, but with 104 owners of all 3, it's not very unique.

I wouldn't mind if all 3 of these guys have huge years and all 104 teams make the finals. The remainder of each team's roster is different enough that even if all 3 far outproduce all the other WR's in the playoffs, there should be a good spread of scores in the finals amongst these teams.

 
'Ahmad Rashad said:
The Megatron/Julio/Marshall combo at WR is looking very strong, but with 104 owners of all 3, it's not very unique. I wouldn't mind if all 3 of these guys have huge years and all 104 teams make the finals. The remainder of each team's roster is different enough that even if all 3 far outproduce all the other WR's in the playoffs, there should be a good spread of scores in the finals amongst these teams.
Click to expand...
I am one of the 104 who couldn't pass that combo up. Obviously they need to remain healthy, but week 1 was a good start to the season for sure.
 
'Ahmad Rashad said:
I've now linked to 2 studies (and there are more) supporting my statement that "most WR's start to decline by 31," along with taking a list of all-pro WR's someone posted to show strong years at 31 and showing that all those WR's had their best year before then (other than Rice in non-TD terms). That may not be perfect support for the odds favoring WR's under 31, but they're better than these:
Click to expand...
Both of those studies have the same problem, which is that they are comparing incomparable WRs. TJ Houshmandzadeh had a decline at age 31, but he was never as good as Roddy White in the first place, and his QB changed from Carson Palmer to first-year starter Ryan Fitzpatrick when TJ was 31. To suggest that Roddy White will decline at 31 because TJ Houshmandzadeh did is absurd, but that's what those studies are doing by not controlling for WR quality and situation. White is a top receiver, in a good offense, with the same high-quality QB as he had last year.So here's an attempt at controlling for quality and situation. This is the list of WRs who scored at least 160 fantasy points (White scored 177.6) at age 30, who had had at least 4 1000-yard seasons to that point (White has had 5 in a row).

Roddy White

Terrell Owens

Tim Brown

Plaxico Burress

Mark Clayton

Torry Holt

Steve Largent

Jerry Rice

Anthony Miller

Jimmy Smith

Rod Smith

Cris Carter

Marvin Harrison

Randy Moss

Wes Welker [*]

[*]Welker is also 31 this year

This is the population you need to compare to. Not Curtis Conway and Troy Brown.

So, how does it look? Of the 14 (excluding Welker), 10 of them scored over 160 points at age 31, and Joe Horn scored 159.5. Three of them scored over 200 points (Rice, TO, R.Smith). The downside exceptions were Plaxico (hold out, suspension, injury), Mark Clayton (injury), and Anthony Miller.

I challenge you to find any football population that does better than this in year N+1. I guarantee you that 23 year old second-year WRs don't repeat or improve on rookie stats at a 78.5% rate. So what the stats are saying, if you look at them correctly, is that a top-quality 30-year-old WR is nearly a guarantee to produce a quality season at 31. [*]

[*]Except for the other fallacy that these studies fail on, which is that observations of populations don't predict individual success or failure.

 
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Joe Flacco $11 0.00

Andrew Luck $11 0.00

Ryan Tannehill $4 0.00

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Chris Johnson $27 0.00 bye

Darren McFadden $26 0.00

Marshawn Lynch $19 0.00 bye

Peyton Hillis $14 0.00

Cedric Benson $3 0.00 bye

Evan Royster $3 0.00 bye

Taiwan Jones $2 0.00

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Julio Jones $23 0.00

A.J. Green $22 0.00

DeSean Jackson $18 0.00

Justin Blackmon $7 0.00

Kendall Wright $6 0.00 bye

Danny Amendola $6 0.00

Jonathan Baldwin $4 0.00

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Vernon Davis $17 0.00

Greg Olsen $11 0.00

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Rob Bironas $3 0.00 bye

Matt Prater $3 0.00

Connor Barth $3 0.00

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New York Jets $4 0.00

Kansas City Chiefs $3

Without a big night from Flacco and D-Mac looks like it could be an early exit for me. :rolleyes:

 
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'CalBear said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
Roddy is 31, when most WR's start to decline,
Click to expand...
Uh, no.
Click to expand...
'CalBear said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
I've now linked to 2 studies (and there are more) supporting my statement that "most WR's start to decline by 31," along with taking a list of all-pro WR's someone posted to show strong years at 31 and showing that all those WR's had their best year before then (other than Rice in non-TD terms). That may not be perfect support for the odds favoring WR's under 31, but they're better than these:
Click to expand...
Both of those studies have the same problem, which is that they are comparing incomparable WRs. TJ Houshmandzadeh had a decline at age 31, but he was never as good as Roddy White in the first place, and his QB changed from Carson Palmer to first-year starter Ryan Fitzpatrick when TJ was 31. To suggest that Roddy White will decline at 31 because TJ Houshmandzadeh did is absurd, but that's what those studies are doing by not controlling for WR quality and situation. White is a top receiver, in a good offense, with the same high-quality QB as he had last year.So here's an attempt at controlling for quality and situation. This is the list of WRs who scored at least 160 fantasy points (White scored 177.6) at age 30, who had had at least 4 1000-yard seasons to that point (White has had 5 in a row).

Roddy White

Terrell Owens

Tim Brown

Plaxico Burress

Mark Clayton

Torry Holt

Steve Largent

Jerry Rice

Anthony Miller

Jimmy Smith

Rod Smith

Cris Carter

Marvin Harrison

Randy Moss

Wes Welker [*]

[*]Welker is also 31 this year

This is the population you need to compare to. Not Curtis Conway and Troy Brown.

So, how does it look? Of the 14 (excluding Welker), 10 of them scored over 160 points at age 31, and Joe Horn scored 159.5. Three of them scored over 200 points (Rice, TO, R.Smith). The downside exceptions were Plaxico (hold out, suspension, injury), Mark Clayton (injury), and Anthony Miller.

I challenge you to find any football population that does better than this in year N+1. I guarantee you that 23 year old second-year WRs don't repeat or improve on rookie stats at a 78.5% rate. So what the stats are saying, if you look at them correctly, is that a top-quality 30-year-old WR is nearly a guarantee to produce a quality season at 31. [*]

[*]Except for the other fallacy that these studies fail on, which is that observations of populations don't predict individual success or failure.
Click to expand...
I never said, "All-pro WR's who scored at least 160 fantasy points at age 30, who had had at least 4 1000-yard seasons to that point, couldn't score 160 fantasy points at age 31." I said, "Roddy is 31, when most WR's start to decline," to which you replied, "Uh, no."If White scores 160 points this year vs. 177.6 last year, that would be a decline of more than 10%, which is consistent with those studies and my statement.

Even taking your list of WR's, which is a tiny subset of "most WR's," below is the age at which they had their best year:

Roddy White 29 (so far)

Terrell Owens 28

Tim Brown 29

Plaxico Burress 30

Mark Clayton 23

Torry Holt 27

Steve Largent 30

Jerry Rice 33 (25 for TD's only)

Anthony Miller 30

Jimmy Smith 30 (32 for TD's)

Rod Smith 31 (30 for yardage)

Cris Carter 30

Marvin Harrison 30 (29 for TD's)

Randy Moss 30

Wes Welker 30 (so far)

With the exception of Jerry Rice (not counting TD's), and maybe Jimmy Smith or Rod Smith, depending on whether you count yardage/receptions more than TD's, all of them had had their peak season by 30. So even using your selected subset supports my statement that "most WR's start to decline" by age 31. Maybe White will buck the odds and have his best season at 31, far outscoring Julio Jones, but I'll stick with the odds and take Jones.

 
'Ahmad Rashad said:
'CalBear said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
Roddy is 31, when most WR's start to decline,
Click to expand...
Uh, no.
Click to expand...
'CalBear said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
I've now linked to 2 studies (and there are more) supporting my statement that "most WR's start to decline by 31," along with taking a list of all-pro WR's someone posted to show strong years at 31 and showing that all those WR's had their best year before then (other than Rice in non-TD terms). That may not be perfect support for the odds favoring WR's under 31, but they're better than these:
Click to expand...
Both of those studies have the same problem, which is that they are comparing incomparable WRs. TJ Houshmandzadeh had a decline at age 31, but he was never as good as Roddy White in the first place, and his QB changed from Carson Palmer to first-year starter Ryan Fitzpatrick when TJ was 31. To suggest that Roddy White will decline at 31 because TJ Houshmandzadeh did is absurd, but that's what those studies are doing by not controlling for WR quality and situation. White is a top receiver, in a good offense, with the same high-quality QB as he had last year.So here's an attempt at controlling for quality and situation. This is the list of WRs who scored at least 160 fantasy points (White scored 177.6) at age 30, who had had at least 4 1000-yard seasons to that point (White has had 5 in a row).

Roddy White

Terrell Owens

Tim Brown

Plaxico Burress

Mark Clayton

Torry Holt

Steve Largent

Jerry Rice

Anthony Miller

Jimmy Smith

Rod Smith

Cris Carter

Marvin Harrison

Randy Moss

Wes Welker [*]

[*]Welker is also 31 this year

This is the population you need to compare to. Not Curtis Conway and Troy Brown.

So, how does it look? Of the 14 (excluding Welker), 10 of them scored over 160 points at age 31, and Joe Horn scored 159.5. Three of them scored over 200 points (Rice, TO, R.Smith). The downside exceptions were Plaxico (hold out, suspension, injury), Mark Clayton (injury), and Anthony Miller.

I challenge you to find any football population that does better than this in year N+1. I guarantee you that 23 year old second-year WRs don't repeat or improve on rookie stats at a 78.5% rate. So what the stats are saying, if you look at them correctly, is that a top-quality 30-year-old WR is nearly a guarantee to produce a quality season at 31. [*]

[*]Except for the other fallacy that these studies fail on, which is that observations of populations don't predict individual success or failure.
Click to expand...
I never said, "All-pro WR's who scored at least 160 fantasy points at age 30, who had had at least 4 1000-yard seasons to that point, couldn't score 160 fantasy points at age 31." I said, "Roddy is 31, when most WR's start to decline," to which you replied, "Uh, no."If White scores 160 points this year vs. 177.6 last year, that would be a decline of more than 10%, which is consistent with those studies and my statement.

Even taking your list of WR's, which is a tiny subset of "most WR's," below is the age at which they had their best year:

Roddy White 29 (so far)

Terrell Owens 28

Tim Brown 29

Plaxico Burress 30

Mark Clayton 23

Torry Holt 27

Steve Largent 30

Jerry Rice 33 (25 for TD's only)

Anthony Miller 30

Jimmy Smith 30 (32 for TD's)

Rod Smith 31 (30 for yardage)

Cris Carter 30

Marvin Harrison 30 (29 for TD's)

Randy Moss 30

Wes Welker 30 (so far)

With the exception of Jerry Rice (not counting TD's), and maybe Jimmy Smith or Rod Smith, depending on whether you count yardage/receptions more than TD's, all of them had had their peak season by 30. So even using your selected subset supports my statement that "most WR's start to decline" by age 31. Maybe White will buck the odds and have his best season at 31, far outscoring Julio Jones, but I'll stick with the odds and take Jones.
Click to expand...
But I don't care if he has his best season. I care if he has a good/great season.
 
'Instinctive said:
But I don't care if he has his best season. I care if he has a good/great season.
Click to expand...
He can still have a good/great season and be declining.Everyone's a winner!
 
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Joe Flacco

Andrew Luck

Ryan Tannehill

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Darren McFadden

Adrian Peterson

Ryan Williams

David Wilson

Jonathan Dwyer

Cedric Benson

Taiwan Jones

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Calvin Johnson

Julio Jones

Dez Bryant

Mike Wallace

Justin Blackmon

Alshon Jeffery

Josh Gordon

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kyle Rudolph

Jared Cook

Dwayne Allen

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Steve Hauschka

Robbie Gould

Shaun Suisham

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Buffalo Bills

San Diego Chargers

Washington Redskins

 
If anybody thinks they can top this squad, I would be interested in seeing it. I pretty much hit all on all of my key guys based on week 1 action.

Matthew Stafford $26

LeSean McCoy $32

Darren McFadden $26

Stevan Ridley $16

Jonathan Dwyer $4

Cedric Benson $3

Larry Fitzgerald $25

Julio Jones $23

Brandon Marshall $22

Pierre Garcon $14

Justin Blackmon $7

Danny Amendola $6

Antonio Gates $20

Martellus Bennett $4

Kellen Davis $4

Adam Vinatieri $3

Matt Prater $3

Rian Lindell $3

Jacksonville Jaguars $3

Carolina Panthers $3

Washington Redskins $3
Click to expand...
 
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'LHUCKS said:
If anybody thinks they can top this squad, I would be interested in seeing it. I pretty much hit all on all of my key guys based on week 1 action.

Matthew Stafford $26 LeSean McCoy $32 Darren McFadden $26 Stevan Ridley $16 Jonathan Dwyer $4 Cedric Benson $3 Larry Fitzgerald $25 Julio Jones $23 Brandon Marshall $22 Pierre Garcon $14 Justin Blackmon $7 Danny Amendola $6 Antonio Gates $20 Martellus Bennett $4 Kellen Davis $4 Adam Vinatieri $3 Matt Prater $3 Rian Lindell $3 Jacksonville Jaguars $3 Carolina Panthers $3 Washington Redskins $3
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
We're similar.
Matthew Stafford $26Ryan Tannehill $4Arian Foster $34LeSean McCoy $32Darren McFadden $26Cedric Benson $3Julio Jones $23Dez Bryant $18Mike Wallace $16Kenny Britt $13Austin Collie $9Justin Blackmon $7Alshon Jeffery $6Devery Henderson $4Greg Olsen $11Joel Dreessen $4Dwayne Allen $2Robbie Gould $3Greg Zuerlein $3Cincinnati Bengals $3Washington Redskins $3
Click to expand...
I like Foster over Ridley, though. I don't see much difference in the WRs. I'd rather have Gates.
 
'Hoosier16 said:
'LHUCKS said:
If anybody thinks they can top this squad, I would be interested in seeing it. I pretty much hit all on all of my key guys based on week 1 action.

Matthew Stafford $26 LeSean McCoy $32 Darren McFadden $26 Stevan Ridley $16 Jonathan Dwyer $4 Cedric Benson $3 Larry Fitzgerald $25 Julio Jones $23 Brandon Marshall $22 Pierre Garcon $14 Justin Blackmon $7 Danny Amendola $6 Antonio Gates $20 Martellus Bennett $4 Kellen Davis $4 Adam Vinatieri $3 Matt Prater $3 Rian Lindell $3 Jacksonville Jaguars $3 Carolina Panthers $3 Washington Redskins $3
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
We're similar.
Matthew Stafford $26Ryan Tannehill $4Arian Foster $34LeSean McCoy $32Darren McFadden $26Cedric Benson $3Julio Jones $23Dez Bryant $18Mike Wallace $16Kenny Britt $13Austin Collie $9Justin Blackmon $7Alshon Jeffery $6Devery Henderson $4Greg Olsen $11Joel Dreessen $4Dwayne Allen $2Robbie Gould $3Greg Zuerlein $3Cincinnati Bengals $3Washington Redskins $3
Click to expand...
I like Foster over Ridley, though. I don't see much difference in the WRs. I'd rather have Gates.
Click to expand...
I have 3Ks and 3Ds. I have Gates vs. Olsen. I like my WRs a bit more with Fitz/Marshall/Garcon.Other than that it's Ridley vs. Foster.
 
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'Ahmad Rashad said:
If White scores 160 points this year vs. 177.6 last year, that would be a decline of more than 10%, which is consistent with those studies and my statement.
Click to expand...
And not consistent with anything I posted. 160 was the baseline, not the expected score. And maybe you should run some stats on how often second-year WRs score 160+ points.But I'm done here.
 
'Instinctive said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
'CalBear said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
Roddy is 31, when most WR's start to decline,
Click to expand...
Uh, no.
Click to expand...
'CalBear said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
I've now linked to 2 studies (and there are more) supporting my statement that "most WR's start to decline by 31," along with taking a list of all-pro WR's someone posted to show strong years at 31 and showing that all those WR's had their best year before then (other than Rice in non-TD terms). That may not be perfect support for the odds favoring WR's under 31, but they're better than these:
Click to expand...
Both of those studies have the same problem, which is that they are comparing incomparable WRs. TJ Houshmandzadeh had a decline at age 31, but he was never as good as Roddy White in the first place, and his QB changed from Carson Palmer to first-year starter Ryan Fitzpatrick when TJ was 31. To suggest that Roddy White will decline at 31 because TJ Houshmandzadeh did is absurd, but that's what those studies are doing by not controlling for WR quality and situation. White is a top receiver, in a good offense, with the same high-quality QB as he had last year.So here's an attempt at controlling for quality and situation. This is the list of WRs who scored at least 160 fantasy points (White scored 177.6) at age 30, who had had at least 4 1000-yard seasons to that point (White has had 5 in a row).

Roddy White

Terrell Owens

Tim Brown

Plaxico Burress

Mark Clayton

Torry Holt

Steve Largent

Jerry Rice

Anthony Miller

Jimmy Smith

Rod Smith

Cris Carter

Marvin Harrison

Randy Moss

Wes Welker [*]

[*]Welker is also 31 this year

This is the population you need to compare to. Not Curtis Conway and Troy Brown.

So, how does it look? Of the 14 (excluding Welker), 10 of them scored over 160 points at age 31, and Joe Horn scored 159.5. Three of them scored over 200 points (Rice, TO, R.Smith). The downside exceptions were Plaxico (hold out, suspension, injury), Mark Clayton (injury), and Anthony Miller.

I challenge you to find any football population that does better than this in year N+1. I guarantee you that 23 year old second-year WRs don't repeat or improve on rookie stats at a 78.5% rate. So what the stats are saying, if you look at them correctly, is that a top-quality 30-year-old WR is nearly a guarantee to produce a quality season at 31. [*]

[*]Except for the other fallacy that these studies fail on, which is that observations of populations don't predict individual success or failure.
Click to expand...
I never said, "All-pro WR's who scored at least 160 fantasy points at age 30, who had had at least 4 1000-yard seasons to that point, couldn't score 160 fantasy points at age 31." I said, "Roddy is 31, when most WR's start to decline," to which you replied, "Uh, no."If White scores 160 points this year vs. 177.6 last year, that would be a decline of more than 10%, which is consistent with those studies and my statement.

Even taking your list of WR's, which is a tiny subset of "most WR's," below is the age at which they had their best year:

Roddy White 29 (so far)

Terrell Owens 28

Tim Brown 29

Plaxico Burress 30

Mark Clayton 23

Torry Holt 27

Steve Largent 30

Jerry Rice 33 (25 for TD's only)

Anthony Miller 30

Jimmy Smith 30 (32 for TD's)

Rod Smith 31 (30 for yardage)

Cris Carter 30

Marvin Harrison 30 (29 for TD's)

Randy Moss 30

Wes Welker 30 (so far)

With the exception of Jerry Rice (not counting TD's), and maybe Jimmy Smith or Rod Smith, depending on whether you count yardage/receptions more than TD's, all of them had had their peak season by 30. So even using your selected subset supports my statement that "most WR's start to decline" by age 31. Maybe White will buck the odds and have his best season at 31, far outscoring Julio Jones, but I'll stick with the odds and take Jones.
Click to expand...
But I don't care if he has his best season. I care if he has a good/great season.
Click to expand...
You care if he has a season as good/better than other WR options at the same/similar price, like Julio Jones. If Julio Jones outscores him during the weeks you need the points, you're more likely to get eliminated, or to score less in the playoffs than the owners who got Jones for the same price.
 
'CalBear said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
If White scores 160 points this year vs. 177.6 last year, that would be a decline of more than 10%, which is consistent with those studies and my statement.
Click to expand...
And not consistent with anything I posted. 160 was the baseline, not the expected score. And maybe you should run some stats on how often second-year WRs score 160+ points.But I'm done here.
Click to expand...
I'm not the one refuting anything you posted. You're the one refuting my statement that most WR's start to decline by 31. White can score 160 points and still be in decline.I don't know what scoring system you're talking about with 160 points -- I never made any statements about an arbitrary level of 160 points in whatever scoring system. You're the one who said, "Uh, no" and "That's not what the odds say" to my statement. If you're going to be a tool and rudely refute what someone says, you should back it up with something showing the statement's incorrect, not add more support for the statement...
 
Between the 31-year-old WR debate and LHUCKS declaring "championship" after one week, I think this thread will vastly improve once we get into some actual weeks with cut-offs. Then we can all talk about the Turk and make posts with emoticons hiding behind a couch.

 
Last year, the top three finishers had totals of 641.5, 621.95, 620.25 in the finals. I can see that total jumping up this year to around the 675-700 range. I get this feeling that there are a lot of teams over the 200 mark this week. I'm one of those teams and other than my kicker (Cundiff) and Defense (Jets), the rest of my team had average days. IMO scores will be higher this year.

 
'HairySasquatch said:
Last year, the top three finishers had totals of 641.5, 621.95, 620.25 in the finals. I can see that total jumping up this year to around the 675-700 range. I get this feeling that there are a lot of teams over the 200 mark this week. I'm one of those teams and other than my kicker (Cundiff) and Defense (Jets), the rest of my team had average days. IMO scores will be higher this year.
Click to expand...
WOW....1,495 teams went over 200 in week 1.
 
'HairySasquatch said:
'HairySasquatch said:
Last year, the top three finishers had totals of 641.5, 621.95, 620.25 in the finals. I can see that total jumping up this year to around the 675-700 range. I get this feeling that there are a lot of teams over the 200 mark this week. I'm one of those teams and other than my kicker (Cundiff) and Defense (Jets), the rest of my team had average days. IMO scores will be higher this year.
Click to expand...
WOW....1,495 teams went over 200 in week 1.
Click to expand...
Where can I see this? :popcorn:
 
'firstseason1988 said:
'HairySasquatch said:
'HairySasquatch said:
Last year, the top three finishers had totals of 641.5, 621.95, 620.25 in the finals. I can see that total jumping up this year to around the 675-700 range. I get this feeling that there are a lot of teams over the 200 mark this week. I'm one of those teams and other than my kicker (Cundiff) and Defense (Jets), the rest of my team had average days. IMO scores will be higher this year.
Click to expand...
WOW....1,495 teams went over 200 in week 1.
Click to expand...
Where can I see this? :popcorn:
Click to expand...
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/week-1.php
 
207 and change

After finishing top 10 last year, I said that I would take more time to construct a better team this year, but I didn't. I ended up with the same approach as last year. I quickly put my team together. It cost me already. I took the wrong Hill at WR. Doh. Anyway, good luck to all. It's always a fun ride.

 
'texasheat said:
McCluster at RB $
Click to expand...
I'm really kicking myself for not making sure he was on my team. He was there in probably 80% of my various rosters, but didn't make the final one.I could have easily sacrificed something at WR to make it happen, but didn't do it and it may cost me bad as I'm really happy with all other positions but RB.
 
SIZE COUNT AVG SCORE18 4633 177.119 1813 177.620 1377 177.421 1146 176.322 966 177.123 814 175.724 627 175.025 484 173.826 384 174.627 312 175.828 230 172.529 193 173.230 339 171.7
Interesting that the average scores decrease with increasing roster size. IIRC it's usually the other way around. So either I have to fix something in my database, or we saw a complete reversal of trend this week. I'll be interested to see if this keeps up.

 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Code: 
SIZE	COUNT	AVG SCORE18	4633	177.119	1813	177.620	1377	177.421	1146	176.322	966	177.123	814	175.724	627	175.025	484	173.826	384	174.627	312	175.828	230	172.529	193	173.230	339	171.7
Interesting that the average scores decrease with increasing roster size. IIRC it's usually the other way around. So either I have to fix something in my database, or we saw a complete reversal of trend this week. I'll be interested to see if this keeps up.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure it's supposed to work that way. Byes and injuries obviously hurt shallow teams more than deep teams. Week one should favor the shallow teams.
 
'HairySasquatch said:
Last year, the top three finishers had totals of 641.5, 621.95, 620.25 in the finals. I can see that total jumping up this year to around the 675-700 range. I get this feeling that there are a lot of teams over the 200 mark this week. I'm one of those teams and other than my kicker (Cundiff) and Defense (Jets), the rest of my team had average days. IMO scores will be higher this year.
Click to expand...
The rule change at RB to full PPR with lower "stud" costs could explain the trend.
 
'LHUCKS said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Code: 
SIZE	COUNT	AVG SCORE18	4633	177.119	1813	177.620	1377	177.421	1146	176.322	966	177.123	814	175.724	627	175.025	484	173.826	384	174.627	312	175.828	230	172.529	193	173.230	339	171.7
Interesting that the average scores decrease with increasing roster size. IIRC it's usually the other way around. So either I have to fix something in my database, or we saw a complete reversal of trend this week. I'll be interested to see if this keeps up.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure it's supposed to work that way. Byes and injuries obviously hurt shallow teams more than deep teams. Week one should favor the shallow teams.
Click to expand...
Here's the same table from week 1 of last season:
Code: 
SIZE	COUNT	AVG SCORE18	3568	165.819	1393	166.520	1059	167.721	836	168.422	766	168.323	641	168.324	547	169.825	396	170.026	415	170.427	296	170.028	269	169.929	214	171.730	375	171.6
As I said, I believe average scores tend to always increase with roster size. I'm wondering if this week is an anomaly or an indicator of a new trend, perhaps caused by the different pricing structure this year or something.
 
191.25 for me in week one. I am glad I went with Foster/McCoy at RB. Seemed like every year RB would kill me in this contest, hopefully not this year.

 
'LHUCKS said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Code: 
SIZE	COUNT	AVG SCORE18	4633	177.119	1813	177.620	1377	177.421	1146	176.322	966	177.123	814	175.724	627	175.025	484	173.826	384	174.627	312	175.828	230	172.529	193	173.230	339	171.7
Interesting that the average scores decrease with increasing roster size. IIRC it's usually the other way around. So either I have to fix something in my database, or we saw a complete reversal of trend this week. I'll be interested to see if this keeps up.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure it's supposed to work that way. Byes and injuries obviously hurt shallow teams more than deep teams. Week one should favor the shallow teams.
Click to expand...
Dude, you really need to stick to subjects where you have some expertise.If I think of one, I'll let you know.
 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Code: 
SIZE	COUNT	AVG SCORE18	4633	177.119	1813	177.620	1377	177.421	1146	176.322	966	177.123	814	175.724	627	175.025	484	173.826	384	174.627	312	175.828	230	172.529	193	173.230	339	171.7
Interesting that the average scores decrease with increasing roster size. IIRC it's usually the other way around. So either I have to fix something in my database, or we saw a complete reversal of trend this week. I'll be interested to see if this keeps up.
Click to expand...
Not really surprising considering what happened this past week. Most of the popular high cost players played to a level that at least justified something close to his cost. Outside a few exceptions, for week 1 at least, the pricing seems pretty spot on.
 
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