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***Official*** 2011 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ignoratio Elenchi
- Start date
Pantherz
Footballguy
GL BnB. Looked like you were having a good week.
Bruce Leroy
Footballguy
Look at the roster sizes of the top 10, you'll notice 6 of the top 10 have 18-21 players. Interesting
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Thanks man. 183 plus the best of Graham/Moore/Douglas. Really needed Barber to play as I'm stuck with a 5 at RB. Wondering if a top 10 spot is possible???
wollac
Footballguy
CURRENT STANDINGS
Caveats:
- Results up to and including the GB/CHI game.
- 99.9% manual entry, so errors may exist, but I feel pretty confident I got it all right.
Comments:
Blue Thunder still has the lead, but there are some teams out there that can take the top spot with MNF still to play.
I'll see if I can't get a sim run before tomorrow night.
Caveats:
- Results up to and including the GB/CHI game.
- 99.9% manual entry, so errors may exist, but I feel pretty confident I got it all right.
Comments:
Blue Thunder still has the lead, but there are some teams out there that can take the top spot with MNF still to play.
I'll see if I can't get a sim run before tomorrow night.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
Wow, I'm shockingly still in 9th. I still got room for a few more points, but I'm afraid that there are a lot of good players still left tomorrow.
wollac
Footballguy
FINAL STANDINGS SIMULATOR
Well I hate to break the news to everyone without a team named "BLUE THUNDER", but it looks like we're all playing for second place.
I ran a new sim, with all the actual scoring from the games played through Sunday night's game, and Lineup Dominator projections for the MNF game. I did 100 runs on the Monte Carlo sim, with the results posted above. Out of the 100 runs, BLUE THUNDER won 99 times, and jbird won the other time. "So you're saying there's a chance..."
I'm currently projected to finish 27th, which I'm pickled tink about. This contest and board has been an amazing ride this season. I'm happy with my team's performance, and I was able to brush up on my Excel skills along the way. I've learned a lot of things and will hopefully, improve on my team next year. I've got two key tweaks I'll be making, which I don't plan on sharing. Thanks for all the discussion, and good luck to everyone fighting for one of the top spots.
Well I hate to break the news to everyone without a team named "BLUE THUNDER", but it looks like we're all playing for second place.
I ran a new sim, with all the actual scoring from the games played through Sunday night's game, and Lineup Dominator projections for the MNF game. I did 100 runs on the Monte Carlo sim, with the results posted above. Out of the 100 runs, BLUE THUNDER won 99 times, and jbird won the other time. "So you're saying there's a chance..."
I'm currently projected to finish 27th, which I'm pickled tink about. This contest and board has been an amazing ride this season. I'm happy with my team's performance, and I was able to brush up on my Excel skills along the way. I've learned a lot of things and will hopefully, improve on my team next year. I've got two key tweaks I'll be making, which I don't plan on sharing. Thanks for all the discussion, and good luck to everyone fighting for one of the top spots.
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kevzilla
Footballguy
Thanks for your hard work, wollac. Projected at 15th, would love to find a way into the top ten. The scenario is as follows:
A) Either Roddy White or Julio Jones pulls something during warmups.
B) Harry Douglas performs like one of those guys.
Doesn't seem likely, and I don't want to root for injuries. So I will root for Lance Moore and Jimmy Graham to get me as much as they can and whatever happens, happens.
A) Either Roddy White or Julio Jones pulls something during warmups.
B) Harry Douglas performs like one of those guys.
Doesn't seem likely, and I don't want to root for injuries. So I will root for Lance Moore and Jimmy Graham to get me as much as they can and whatever happens, happens.
wollac
Footballguy
Setting Roddy White and Julio Jones at 0 points, and Harry Douglas at Roddy White's projection of 18.6, and simming it through 25 runs, moves you from 15th to 13th. You'll need to come up with some more points somewhere!!
wollac
Footballguy
However, if you also make Lance Moore and Jimmy Graham equal their season high totals, you'd move into 6th place.
Balco
Footballguy
Sitting in 10th (103997). I have Jimmy Graham (-6.7). I figure I will drop a little after tonight, but I am not complaining.
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
I'm 7th, simulation projects me at 12th.
Just looked at the prize structure for the first time so hey that's cool.
Just looked at the prize structure for the first time so hey that's cool.
kevzilla
Footballguy
Fascinating. I would have thought that Douglas would have done me more good. Anyway, it appears this will be a far better result than my other two trips to the finals, so I will
tonight and enjoy it.
Sake-Bombers
Footballguy
Wollac,thanks for this update, been doing rough standing estimates in my head for top 10 as I knew I was doing pretty good. Currently sitting in 2nd and projected there, but I have a feeling I'm realistically gonna drop a couple spots after tonight (seems like everyone else has Roddy White!).
Couldn't do quite enough to catch Blue Thunder after his monster week. I think that 270+ has to be one of the highest scores ever in any week!
Much gratitude to all the projectors and analysts in this thread throughout the season and of course to FBG for this cool contest!
Couldn't do quite enough to catch Blue Thunder after his monster week. I think that 270+ has to be one of the highest scores ever in any week!
Much gratitude to all the projectors and analysts in this thread throughout the season and of course to FBG for this cool contest!
The Future Champs
Footballguy
Sitting at 26th, with almost no chance to crack the top 20. That's a great year for me, and I look forward to the post season contest.
Also, I'm really glad that BnB is "LHUCKS", as I'd been obsessing over the possibility of finishing behind that nimrod for over a month.
Also, I'm really glad that BnB is "LHUCKS", as I'd been obsessing over the possibility of finishing behind that nimrod for over a month.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
No kidding. I had 251 last week and still finished 20 pts back.
I got killed at RB2 this week. 6.6 from Wells I think. I was getting a nice rush from Helu lately. Oh well, top 10 would be nice.
kardplayer
Footballguy
Currently at 39th, sim has me at 48th.
I'm pretty psyched with that.
I'm pretty psyched with that.
Balco
Footballguy
And it also goes to show how lucky you need to be. I got 29 points from 1 $2 defense in the first week of the finals (Jax), and 29 points from my other $2 defense this week (Buffalo). Really is the difference between me finishing top 25 and top 100.
I am definitely going to tweak some strategies next year, but I will definitely be sticking with 3 $2 defenses, and 4 cheap kickers. They can really make the difference on moving on each week.
I am definitely going to tweak some strategies next year, but I will definitely be sticking with 3 $2 defenses, and 4 cheap kickers. They can really make the difference on moving on each week.
Thankfully there's still a chance.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
What could have been. The 6 spot at my second RB spot will stick in the craw for a long time as will Manningham's drop int he end zone. I've hit my sim number, need Graham to post another 8 pts to move up a spot or two.
For some good karma and Graham motivation, half of any winnings improvement from 7th will go to jdrf.
For some good karma and Graham motivation, half of any winnings improvement from 7th will go to jdrf.
wollac
Footballguy
UNOFFICIAL FINAL RESULTS
I can't stress enough how much manual entry was involved with generating these sims and this final results tally. I'm about 95% confident that these results are true, but don't go spending unearned money yet, if you know what I mean.
In the end, BLUE THUNDER's Week 2 rampage was impossible for any of us mere mortals to overcome, as BLUE THUNDER ended up winning by nearly 20 points. The race for the rest of the top 5 spots was quite fascinating with only 2.4 points separating 2nd place from 5th place. 6th place was about 10 points behind 5th place.
I ended up in 28th place, which isn't in the big money range, but who am I to complain? On the one hand, I'm sad that this is all over until next year, but on the other hand, we're just one day closer to the Playoff Contest.
It's been real. I'm out.
I can't stress enough how much manual entry was involved with generating these sims and this final results tally. I'm about 95% confident that these results are true, but don't go spending unearned money yet, if you know what I mean.
In the end, BLUE THUNDER's Week 2 rampage was impossible for any of us mere mortals to overcome, as BLUE THUNDER ended up winning by nearly 20 points. The race for the rest of the top 5 spots was quite fascinating with only 2.4 points separating 2nd place from 5th place. 6th place was about 10 points behind 5th place.
I ended up in 28th place, which isn't in the big money range, but who am I to complain? On the one hand, I'm sad that this is all over until next year, but on the other hand, we're just one day closer to the Playoff Contest.
It's been real. I'm out.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
Sake-Bombers
Footballguy
Thanks for running this tonight! I'm sweating bullets until final results out. 2nd through 5th is TIGHT.
kardplayer
Footballguy
Thanks Wollac for running these. 49th place overall - not too shabby for my first trip to the finals.
Thanks Wollac for all the effort you put in to keep us up to date on the possible results.
Looks like 100 for me. I was incredibly lucky since I did not pay attention to the rules and just picked the players based on my limited knowledge and their cost relative to the $250.
Next year I will make a serious effort and put some meaningful thought into the picks. No doubt I will be gone in week 2! LOL
I am wondering if anyone has tried the Draft Dominator using the game rules to suggest picks?
Here's hoping everyone has a prosperous New Year.
Pat
Looks like 100 for me. I was incredibly lucky since I did not pay attention to the rules and just picked the players based on my limited knowledge and their cost relative to the $250.
Next year I will make a serious effort and put some meaningful thought into the picks. No doubt I will be gone in week 2! LOL
I am wondering if anyone has tried the Draft Dominator using the game rules to suggest picks?
Here's hoping everyone has a prosperous New Year.
Pat
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
#12 holla
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
#38 this year.
#25 last year.
Not bad for my first two years playing.
#25 last year.
Not bad for my first two years playing.
a_troll00
Footballguy
Finished 43rd in this, in my first trip to the finals. Before last night's game, I honestly thought my team would finish outside of the top 100... so I'll take it. This was my first trip to the finals and it was an absolute blast, even though it can feel stressful at times. A huge thanks to Footballguys for this contest and to everyone who put so much effort into this contest.
GunslingerEnder
Footballguy
Finished #13. First time I made it to the final 250. Pretty happy with the turnout considering I had lost most RB production by last week. Congratulations to BT and everyone else in the top.10.
It will be tough to repeat or improve what I did this year but am looking forward to it.
It will be tough to repeat or improve what I did this year but am looking forward to it.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
had to know this would happen just to keep things 
for next year.-QG
Sake-Bombers
Footballguy
Happy to see official results today with me still at 2! Less than 2 points between 2nd and 5th, and 3 through 5 all had Roddy, so one more reception by Roddy would have bumped me down.
I still think big rosters give you better chance to make finals. And once there, the right guys on your roster is what you need to win, I think. (That, and production from your defenses and/or kickers.)
I still think big rosters give you better chance to make finals. And once there, the right guys on your roster is what you need to win, I think. (That, and production from your defenses and/or kickers.)
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Congrats man!-QG
wollac
Footballguy
I might expand on this with the following:5 of the top 10 teams are 18 man rosters, but...5 of the bottom 10 teams are also 18 man rosters.Gotta look at things from both sides. Lets not forget, this contest started with 10x as many 18 man rosters as 30 man rosters.
wollac
Footballguy
This isn't quite the breakdown that Saint did, but I think this data is all I need to know. Here's a breakdown of the Final 250 teams, with their average finish position, and their average final points. Draw your own conclusions:
Code:
Size Avg Fin Avg Score 18 129.6 521.65 BELOW AVERAGE19 198.9 486.07 BELOW AVERAGE20 123.9 520.61 BELOW AVERAGE21 136.6 515.13 BELOW AVERAGE22 144.8 512.09 BELOW AVERAGE23 134.4 518.54 BELOW AVERAGE24 134.2 519.51 BELOW AVERAGE25 77.6 545.32 ABOVE AVERAGE26 117.1 527.75 ABOVE AVERAGE27 86.6 549.33 ABOVE AVERAGE28 111.9 533.77 ABOVE AVERAGE29 106.8 535.10 ABOVE AVERAGE30 91.4 540.10 ABOVE AVERAGE AVG 125.5 523.13
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NYRAGE
Footballguy
While it's nice having a small roster of studs, the Captain Obvious in me thinks that a lot of it depends on not only picking the right guys, but also avoiding injury. How many small roster teams made it to the 250 with Charles?
The winner, Blue Thunder only had 4 RBs. He lost Hightower mid-season. M. Bush was serviceable early on, but didn't really do well until McFadden got hurt at mid-season. Deangelo and Spiller were mostly useless until the end of the season. In his case, he got lucky because of injuries to McFadden and F. Jackson, while injuries hurt other teams.
I used 28 players. I'll probably use a large roster again next year. Hopefully this time I'll get some better defenses and kickers.
The winner, Blue Thunder only had 4 RBs. He lost Hightower mid-season. M. Bush was serviceable early on, but didn't really do well until McFadden got hurt at mid-season. Deangelo and Spiller were mostly useless until the end of the season. In his case, he got lucky because of injuries to McFadden and F. Jackson, while injuries hurt other teams.
I used 28 players. I'll probably use a large roster again next year. Hopefully this time I'll get some better defenses and kickers.
You're trending in the wrong direction.
If you go to your team page, the scores are there, it just doesn't show a total, you could total them up. I'm doing that with mine now.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/100823.php
GunslingerEnder
Footballguy
Anyone get the email with the form to send in yet?
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Last year it didn't happen until late January or early February if I remember correctly.
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