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***Official*** 2011 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (1 Viewer)

SIMULATION TIME!!!

SIMULATION

I spent a good 20 hours putting this monster together this week. Here are the caveats:

- Intended to include the top 250 teams. Somehow, I dropped one, if you find it let me know.

- Includes Pitt/Cle game actual scores.

- Based on projections from Lineup Dominator.

- Used 100 runs.

- Standard deviations were crudely built based on approximately the top dozen (most owned) players at each position and how they have scored throughout the year (not counting bye weeks).

-- Merry Christmas

 
SIMULATION TIME!!!

SIMULATION

I spent a good 20 hours putting this monster together this week. Here are the caveats:

- Intended to include the top 250 teams. Somehow, I dropped one, if you find it let me know.

- Includes Pitt/Cle game actual scores.

- Based on projections from Lineup Dominator.

- Used 100 runs.

- Standard deviations were crudely built based on approximately the top dozen (most owned) players at each position and how they have scored throughout the year (not counting bye weeks).

-- Merry Christmas
You're missing mine...oh wait I got knocked last week :( :cry: Seriously though, :thumbup:

-QG

 
SIMULATION TIME!!!

SIMULATION

I spent a good 20 hours putting this monster together this week. Here are the caveats:

- Intended to include the top 250 teams. Somehow, I dropped one, if you find it let me know.

- Includes Pitt/Cle game actual scores.

- Based on projections from Lineup Dominator.

- Used 100 runs.

- Standard deviations were crudely built based on approximately the top dozen (most owned) players at each position and how they have scored throughout the year (not counting bye weeks).

-- Merry Christmas
Thank you very much. I had predicted 75th to 175th for my team and came in at 76th. I'm sure Brown's good showing bumped me to the higher end of that range.
 
SIMULATION TIME!!!

SIMULATION

I spent a good 20 hours putting this monster together this week. Here are the caveats:

- Intended to include the top 250 teams. Somehow, I dropped one, if you find it let me know.

- Includes Pitt/Cle game actual scores.

- Based on projections from Lineup Dominator.

- Used 100 runs.

- Standard deviations were crudely built based on approximately the top dozen (most owned) players at each position and how they have scored throughout the year (not counting bye weeks).

-- Merry Christmas
I love it! You're missing 106374.I'd love it more if it didn't have me at 181!!!

 
SIMULATION TIME!!!

SIMULATION

I spent a good 20 hours putting this monster together this week. Here are the caveats:

- Intended to include the top 250 teams. Somehow, I dropped one, if you find it let me know.

- Includes Pitt/Cle game actual scores.

- Based on projections from Lineup Dominator.

- Used 100 runs.

- Standard deviations were crudely built based on approximately the top dozen (most owned) players at each position and how they have scored throughout the year (not counting bye weeks).

-- Merry Christmas
Thanks for doing this! I sure hope it is accurate with a variance of +/- 12...team 104207
 
SIMULATION TIME!!!

SIMULATION

I spent a good 20 hours putting this monster together this week. Here are the caveats:

- Intended to include the top 250 teams. Somehow, I dropped one, if you find it let me know.

- Includes Pitt/Cle game actual scores.

- Based on projections from Lineup Dominator.

- Used 100 runs.

- Standard deviations were crudely built based on approximately the top dozen (most owned) players at each position and how they have scored throughout the year (not counting bye weeks).

-- Merry Christmas
I love it! You're missing 106374.I'd love it more if it didn't have me at 181!!!
Yeah, I know what you mean. I poured a serious amount of time into this, only to find my team rank out at 220. Somehow, I was hoping for a little more payoff than that! I'll see if I can get the other team put in, but it probably won't happen until next week.
 
I'm mostly a reader here and don't post often, but man do I appreciate the database work and other time-intensive analysis many of you do. That simulation is impressive, and the live scoring websites an updates from kp are so cool. This is the kind of stuff I love about here (makes me gloss over all the other un-excellent stuff in player-specific threads)

So I too love following this thread every year. This is the first year I've made top 250, and while I'm obviously rooting for myself, I'm also pulling for the regulars here.

And let's just say I'm firmly in the camp that would rather have a greater chance to be in be top 250 with smaller chance to win upon making.

Good luck to all!

 
Would love to see cumulative points through Week 13 for the survivors. Just the top 10 or 20 would do.
Unlike Wollac (super hero), I ran out of patience after 100 entries... but, for the top 100 scores from week 13, here is the season scoring rank, average weekly score and standard deviation:Rank. . .Entry. . .Average. . .Std Dev1. . .102946. . . . .182.5. . .19.52. . .110241. . . . .179.6. . .29.13. . .Bigbraynbo. . .179.1. . .32.04. . .Drunkendis. . .179.0. . .21.75. . .102427. . . . .177.8. . .29.76. . .Theguardcr. . .177.2. . .30.77. . .BCal. . . . . .176.6. . .26.38. . .TripleThre. . .176.5. . .15.59. . .100902. . . . .176.3. . .31.910. . .Regals26. . . .175.8. . .28.511. . .Shankapota. . .175.7. . .34.412. . .Jbird. . .. . .175.2. . .29.713. . .109679. . . . .175.2. . .25.114. . .103573. . . . .175.1. . .23.215. . .B229s. . .. . .174.9. . .26.616. . .Evil. . . . . .174.9. . .30.217. . .Halfdanish. . .174.7. . .29.018. . .Nepalism. . . .174.4. . .28.519. . .110619. . . . .174.3. . .34.520. . .Ryersonlaw. . .174.1. . .27.821. . .fyew2. . .. . .173.8. . .30.122. . .dsg03svt. . . .173.6. . .27.323. . .JRiehl. . . . .173.4. . .29.124. . .SelfMade. . . .173.1. . .18.825. . .LittlePhat. . .172.9. . .21.426. . .106827. . . . .172.6. . .19.127. . .DragonBone. . .172.4. . .22.828. . .Wookies. .. . .172.2. . .33.329. . .Pizzadeliv. . .171.6. . .28.430. . .Angiesweet. . .171.5. . .17.031. . .106665. . . . .171.5. . .22.232. . .Chicagopre. . .171.3. . .24.333. . .Thedeadpup. . .171.1. . .20.134. . .Zerochance. . .171.0. . .27.335. . .Daveshulas. . .170.9. . .23.836. . .Touchdownt. . .170.9. . .28.737. . .CrudeOiler. . .170.8. . .22.738. . .Cheesyburg. . .170.3. . .21.339. . .103400. . . . .169.9. . .27.640. . .KillerB. .. . .169.8. . .25.041. . .WWCD. . . . . .169.7. . .21.742. . .TheBanes. . . .169.6. . .26.843. . .109195. . . . .169.4. . .27.544. . .Chicagohoo. . .169.3. . .17.445. . .Zpdduda. .. . .169.1. . .23.446. . .Woody. . .. . .169.0. . .17.947. . .Turtlehead. . .168.6. . .25.148. . .104445. . . . .168.4. . .17.749. . .JonathanRi. . .168.0. . .24.450. . .104849. . . . .168.0. . .22.351. . .sevy1. . .. . .167.6. . .24.152. . .BlueDolfan. . .167.6. . .23.453. . .101448. . . . .167.6. . .32.754. . .Zeeksgeeks. . .167.5. . .18.555. . .Tbbucs33. . . .167.3. . .31.456. . .RoguePanda. . .167.3. . .23.357. . .Gonzoman. . . .167.2. . .35.358. . .110371. . . . .167.1. . .25.659. . .Harpua. . . . .167.1. . .27.760. . .DaBurghSte. . .167.0. . .21.261. . .JoshOlszew. . .167.0. . .23.262. . .Billsville. . .166.7. . .21.863. . .God####er.. . .166.3. . .25.464. . .107898. . . . .166.2. . .29.965. . .108614. . . . .166.1. . .21.466. . .RAGTAGWARR. . .166.0. . .29.467. . .Joeyfettuc. . .165.9. . .22.468. . .HurlBruce.. . .165.4. . .22.669. . .Mazwins. .. . .165.3. . .28.870. . .LUMBO. . .. . .165.2. . .22.471. . .109849. . . . .165.0. . .25.972. . .110166. . . . .164.9. . .25.473. . .Caldarooni. . .164.8. . .23.274. . .Kardplayer. . .164.5. . .17.375. . .100364. . . . .164.4. . .25.976. . .Mightymagp. . .164.3. . .23.177. . .108523. . . . .163.6. . .19.678. . .Gorf. . . . . .163.6. . .25.079. . .Warriorbro. . .163.5. . .22.480. . .Steelers. . . .162.7. . .27.381. . .102783. . . . .162.7. . .32.882. . .Done&done.. . .162.5. . .26.483. . .AssGel. . . . .162.2. . .28.384. . .Inrodwetru. . .161.9. . .21.385. . .Gangsters.. . .161.6. . .28.686. . .Hootie. . . . .160.7. . .25.587. . .Emoss. . .. . .160.6. . .21.488. . .HaywoodJab. . .160.5. . .26.089. . .Sharkvegas. . .160.4. . .21.590. . .101974. . . . .160.3. . .22.591. . .Regals. . . . .160.2. . .21.292. . .Padraigm. . . .159.8. . .20.993. . .Raf198. . . . .159.6. . .25.894. . .Mikeochoci. . .159.5. . .26.095. . .AnkleBreak. . .159.3. . .25.796. . .Menacemen.. . .159.1. . .23.597. . .CPXPacker.. . .158.5. . .25.798. . .108190. . . . .157.7. . .21.899. . .Stinky. . . . .157.1. . .25.6100. . .103839. . . . .153.9. . .27.8As an aside... since I re-named my team, where can I unearth my team number to get depressed when I look at the genius simulation?Cheers,Shark Vegas
 
Much obliged... I'm glad the room was empty when I looked at the simulation. No one present to hear my un-manly squeal.

And I was using a pencil and paper. Ran out fingers so I upgraded to an abacus. When that failed, I clicked through 100 team links to copy and paste their weekly scores into a spreadsheet... so, in the grand scheme of databases, yes, I "was doing it by hand or something."

:o

 
Would love to see cumulative points through Week 13 for the survivors. Just the top 10 or 20 would do.
Unlike Wollac (super hero), I ran out of patience after 100 entries... but, for the top 100 scores from week 13, here is the season scoring rank, average weekly score and standard deviation:Rank. . .Entry. . .Average. . .Std Dev1. . .102946. . . . .182.5. . .19.52. . .110241. . . . .179.6. . .29.13. . .Bigbraynbo. . .179.1. . .32.04. . .Drunkendis. . .179.0. . .21.75. . .102427. . . . .177.8. . .29.76. . .Theguardcr. . .177.2. . .30.77. . .BCal. . . . . .176.6. . .26.38. . .TripleThre. . .176.5. . .15.59. . .100902. . . . .176.3. . .31.910. . .Regals26. . . .175.8. . .28.511. . .Shankapota. . .175.7. . .34.412. . .Jbird. . .. . .175.2. . .29.713. . .109679. . . . .175.2. . .25.114. . .103573. . . . .175.1. . .23.215. . .B229s. . .. . .174.9. . .26.616. . .Evil. . . . . .174.9. . .30.217. . .Halfdanish. . .174.7. . .29.018. . .Nepalism. . . .174.4. . .28.519. . .110619. . . . .174.3. . .34.520. . .Ryersonlaw. . .174.1. . .27.821. . .fyew2. . .. . .173.8. . .30.122. . .dsg03svt. . . .173.6. . .27.323. . .JRiehl. . . . .173.4. . .29.124. . .SelfMade. . . .173.1. . .18.825. . .LittlePhat. . .172.9. . .21.426. . .106827. . . . .172.6. . .19.127. . .DragonBone. . .172.4. . .22.828. . .Wookies. .. . .172.2. . .33.329. . .Pizzadeliv. . .171.6. . .28.430. . .Angiesweet. . .171.5. . .17.031. . .106665. . . . .171.5. . .22.232. . .Chicagopre. . .171.3. . .24.333. . .Thedeadpup. . .171.1. . .20.134. . .Zerochance. . .171.0. . .27.335. . .Daveshulas. . .170.9. . .23.836. . .Touchdownt. . .170.9. . .28.737. . .CrudeOiler. . .170.8. . .22.738. . .Cheesyburg. . .170.3. . .21.339. . .103400. . . . .169.9. . .27.640. . .KillerB. .. . .169.8. . .25.041. . .WWCD. . . . . .169.7. . .21.742. . .TheBanes. . . .169.6. . .26.843. . .109195. . . . .169.4. . .27.544. . .Chicagohoo. . .169.3. . .17.445. . .Zpdduda. .. . .169.1. . .23.446. . .Woody. . .. . .169.0. . .17.947. . .Turtlehead. . .168.6. . .25.148. . .104445. . . . .168.4. . .17.749. . .JonathanRi. . .168.0. . .24.450. . .104849. . . . .168.0. . .22.351. . .sevy1. . .. . .167.6. . .24.152. . .BlueDolfan. . .167.6. . .23.453. . .101448. . . . .167.6. . .32.754. . .Zeeksgeeks. . .167.5. . .18.555. . .Tbbucs33. . . .167.3. . .31.456. . .RoguePanda. . .167.3. . .23.357. . .Gonzoman. . . .167.2. . .35.358. . .110371. . . . .167.1. . .25.659. . .Harpua. . . . .167.1. . .27.760. . .DaBurghSte. . .167.0. . .21.261. . .JoshOlszew. . .167.0. . .23.262. . .Billsville. . .166.7. . .21.863. . .God####er.. . .166.3. . .25.464. . .107898. . . . .166.2. . .29.965. . .108614. . . . .166.1. . .21.466. . .RAGTAGWARR. . .166.0. . .29.467. . .Joeyfettuc. . .165.9. . .22.468. . .HurlBruce.. . .165.4. . .22.669. . .Mazwins. .. . .165.3. . .28.870. . .LUMBO. . .. . .165.2. . .22.471. . .109849. . . . .165.0. . .25.972. . .110166. . . . .164.9. . .25.473. . .Caldarooni. . .164.8. . .23.274. . .Kardplayer. . .164.5. . .17.375. . .100364. . . . .164.4. . .25.976. . .Mightymagp. . .164.3. . .23.177. . .108523. . . . .163.6. . .19.678. . .Gorf. . . . . .163.6. . .25.079. . .Warriorbro. . .163.5. . .22.480. . .Steelers. . . .162.7. . .27.381. . .102783. . . . .162.7. . .32.882. . .Done&done.. . .162.5. . .26.483. . .AssGel. . . . .162.2. . .28.384. . .Inrodwetru. . .161.9. . .21.385. . .Gangsters.. . .161.6. . .28.686. . .Hootie. . . . .160.7. . .25.587. . .Emoss. . .. . .160.6. . .21.488. . .HaywoodJab. . .160.5. . .26.089. . .Sharkvegas. . .160.4. . .21.590. . .101974. . . . .160.3. . .22.591. . .Regals. . . . .160.2. . .21.292. . .Padraigm. . . .159.8. . .20.993. . .Raf198. . . . .159.6. . .25.894. . .Mikeochoci. . .159.5. . .26.095. . .AnkleBreak. . .159.3. . .25.796. . .Menacemen.. . .159.1. . .23.597. . .CPXPacker.. . .158.5. . .25.798. . .108190. . . . .157.7. . .21.899. . .Stinky. . . . .157.1. . .25.6100. . .103839. . . . .153.9. . .27.8As an aside... since I re-named my team, where can I unearth my team number to get depressed when I look at the genius simulation?Cheers,Shark Vegas
I would be 6th on that list except that I wasn't in the top 100 last week.
 
Rice is killing me today.

Nugent and Pettigrew doing their best to keep me in this.

Sitting at 102 halfway thru the 1 pm games with scores posted at every position. Don't expect much else from Pettigrew or Stafford. Need Brady to turn it on and two RBs to step up.

 
With all the juge scoring, I suspect someone will have the right combo (which will include Gronk) to run off to a big lead.

 
140.55 after early games with Floyd(-4) and Akers(-5) to go.Should be enough to keep me at the back. :excited:

 
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Well I'm in the final 250. Second time in the 4 years I've been in it. Happy to be here but after seeing some of the remaining rosters I have zero shot at winning. I feel like I selected a team built to survive, not win it all.
I've crushed you on ytd points and would trade rosters in a heartbeat. Matthews, CJ, Bryant, and Finley are all difference makers. I really like what you did here.

Beating a dead horse here, but that 3rd QB is worthless. Two more kickers, one D, and Brown/Moore would provide more points.
Ya think?136.95 plus Eli Manning(-23.75) and Dez Bryant(-6.9). Oof, this is gonna hurt.

Killers for my day:

J Finley - 0.00

Calvin Johnson - 7.00(this will count)

Tampa Mike- 6.50

2 kickers - 3 pts. each

 
Standings going into SNF are here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmSV5aHfLpnkdEF4LTI5TDJsTE9VeXlIV1RSOXRqRUE

For those that can't get into Google Docs, here's the top 10:

Team # Total1 103487 221.52 107406 219.353 105776 216.254 109679 213.65 102049 212.856 104909 211.87 104358 211.78 103404 209.69 100052 208.510 104808 204.95
Note: I'm not live updating like I did the last two weeks, but I was curious where I was going into tonight's game - 158.85 pts, 152nd, with Lynch (-11.2) and Bradford (-23.75) to go - so I figured I'd run the scores. Actually in better shape than I thought, but no chance of any real $$$.

 
Standings going into SNF are here:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmSV5aHfLpnkdEF4LTI5TDJsTE9VeXlIV1RSOXRqRUEFor those that can't get into Google Docs, here's the top 10:

Code:
	Team #	Total1	103487	221.52	107406	219.353	105776	216.254	109679	213.65	102049	212.856	104909	211.87	104358	211.78	103404	209.69	100052	208.510	104808	204.95
Note: I'm not live updating like I did the last two weeks, but I was curious where I was going into tonight's game - 158.85 pts, 152nd, with Lynch (-11.2) and Bradford (-23.75) to go - so I figured I'd run the scores. Actually in better shape than I thought, but no chance of any real $$$.
In 53rd place with no one left so I will drop quite a bit but in better shape than I thought I would be in :thumbup:
 
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Thanks for the update. 63rd coming into tonite's game. Looks like I may have caught a break with Jones back in action, although he'll need to top 13 before he counts. My biggest need is for the Invisible "Man"ningham to to exceed 10.5.

 
Although I was fifth in cumulative points coming into the finals, any realistic chance I had to win probably evaporated when Fred Jackson went down. Still somewhat disappointed with my squad's performance today. Steven Jackson will probably improve my score a little, but now my goal is to surpass my previous best of 102nd place.

 
Well Manningham's drop cost someone $25K. I would have been at 198. Will have to settle for 188 which should put me in in the top 40-75.

Prizes:

The $35,000 will be paid out as follows:

1st Place: $20,000 + lifetime subscription to Footballguys.com + 2011 FPC entry + Titlecraft Trophy

2nd Place: $4,000 + FPC 3-Pack + 3-year subscription to Footballguys.com

3rd Place: $2,000 + FPC 3-Pack + 3-year subscription to Footballguys.com

4th Place: $1,500 + FPC Entry + 3-year subscription to Footballguys.com

5th Place: $1,000 + FPC Entry + 2012 subscription to Footballguys.com

6th place: $500 + 2012 subscription to Footballguys.com

7th place: $300 + 2012 subscription to Footballguys.com

8th place: $200 + 2012 subscription to Footballguys.com

9th place: $125 + 2012 subscription to Footballguys.com

10th place: $75 + 2012 subscription to Footballguys.com

11th - 15th place: $50

16th - 30th place: $40

31st - 100th place: $30

101st place - 150th place: $25

With the most un-unique roster in the contest, I'm probably safely in the money. Might have an outside shot at $40.

 
I'm trying to not get too excited about my likely top 10 finish this week, but not going to lie, I'm pretty excited about it. (Team 105776)

I looked at a few of last year's week 14 results to see how the week 14 top 20 ended up overall. Not surprisingly, there's no set pattern, but here's a couple observations.

The worst anyone in the Week 14 top 20 did last year was 124th, and second worst was 80th.

Only three of the top 20 in week 14 ended up in the top 10 overall.

Last year's 2nd place finisher was in 76th place after week 14.

Based on last year, seems like for anyone hoping to hit top 10, you're probably going to need to score over 200 at least once.

 
Any insights as to the potential impact of tonights game on the standings? I can't imagine either team having players that heavily impact the results on a frequent basis.

 
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Wollac... nice post... my ghost entry only scored 157.6 but still have guys in tonight's game... picked the wrong studs this year... oh well...

 
Never broke 200 points, until this week. Can't complain.
Same for me, best I got was low 180s twice. Came in at 205.2, pretty happy to be in 20th at this point. Got lucky with having Detroit put up a huge game. I can't see me holding onto top 20 unless I get extremely lucky, but at least I'm comfortable that I will place in the money.
 
Only eeked out 156.45 this week. Good enough for 209th place. My sim had me at 220, so I guess I should be happy?

 
Only eeked out 156.45 this week. Good enough for 209th place. My sim had me at 220, so I guess I should be happy?
I didn't do much better. 162 and change. Foster had a crappy day. So crappy that Evan Moore even counted as my flex. Oh well,it's still better to be in it than not. This time I will give next year's entry some more thought.
 
OK, so the top scorer this week squeaked by Week 12 with a score of 154.80 and a cutoff of 154.55.

That makes me feel really splendid.

 

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