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Official 2024-2025 FBG Subscriber Playoff Contest (2 Viewers)

Comparing the entries so far in terms of number of NFL games picked. That is, how many NFL games need to go the way you predicted in order to avoid taking any zeros?

12 TheWinz
12 joey
11 Ruffrodys05
9* rustycolts
9 Dacomish
9 Scoresman
7 Deamon

* guaranteed to take at least 1 zero (BAL & PIT players both advancing past Wild Card round)

e.g., @Scoresman is relying on PHI, BUF, and BAL to win in the Wild Card round, PHI, DET, KC, and BAL winning in the Divisional round, and KC & PHI winning in the Conference Championships. That adds up to 9 games picked. There are 12 total games in the bracket, so 9 games picked means 3 games not picked. The 3 games not picked are all in the Wild Card round - they are not picking winners in: HOU vs LAC, TB vs WAS, and LAR vs MIN.

(It's possible I've made some errors in these counts.)

I think it's best not to pick more than 9 games, because there's too much chance of taking zeros if you need 10+ games to all go your way, and there's a case for picking fewer. e.g. Scoresman could pick only 8 games if they moved the 3 DET/KC/PHI players that they picked in the Divisional round to the Conference Championship round and took their 3 BAL players in the Divisional round. Then they could avoid taking zeros regardless of who won the BUF vs BAL game, and this wouldn't hurt their scoring much.

(This is not to pick on Scoresman; I think their entry posted here actually has the best chance of winning out of the ones that have been posted so far.)
Agree, this was my mindset. Even having 2 teams in the SB, you really have to nail that exact SB to win this thing I would think?

Maybe my strategy is off, but I have all QBs round 1, so should do okay there. R2 is nothing but Chiefs and Ravens as I feel both those 2 teams will be in a round 2 game, so loaded up on the best 6 from those 2 teams.

I'm taking a gamble but feel decent about Detroit and Philly both being in the AFCC, so loaded up on the best 6 from those teams there.

And if Buffalo is in the SB, I should have big points across the board with 5X everyone's points. 5X a buffalo kicker I feel better about than guessing if Det/Phi would be in the SB because being wrong ruins the entry there.
The thing I'm most worried about with your team is that you're counting on both DET & PHI to make it to the NFCCG, but you didn't pick either in the Super Bowl.

If it's a BUF-DET Super Bowl you'll have an uphill battle against entries that included some DET players in the Super Bowl round, and if it's a BUF-PHI Super Bowl then you'll have an uphill battle against entries that included some PHI players.

And both of those Super Bowl matchups are likely enough so that there will probably be lots of entries with each of them (more with BUF-DET than with BUF-PHI).
ya true, it is gambling yet playing it safe in a way i suppose. My only point being, it seems like if you don't have all 6 of your round 4 guys actually in the sb, it would be hard to win.
Comparing the entries so far in terms of number of NFL games picked. That is, how many NFL games need to go the way you predicted in order to avoid taking any zeros?

12 TheWinz
12 joey
11 Ruffrodys05
9* rustycolts
9 Dacomish
9 Scoresman
7 Deamon

* guaranteed to take at least 1 zero (BAL & PIT players both advancing past Wild Card round)

e.g., @Scoresman is relying on PHI, BUF, and BAL to win in the Wild Card round, PHI, DET, KC, and BAL winning in the Divisional round, and KC & PHI winning in the Conference Championships. That adds up to 9 games picked. There are 12 total games in the bracket, so 9 games picked means 3 games not picked. The 3 games not picked are all in the Wild Card round - they are not picking winners in: HOU vs LAC, TB vs WAS, and LAR vs MIN.

(It's possible I've made some errors in these counts.)

I think it's best not to pick more than 9 games, because there's too much chance of taking zeros if you need 10+ games to all go your way, and there's a case for picking fewer. e.g. Scoresman could pick only 8 games if they moved the 3 DET/KC/PHI players that they picked in the Divisional round to the Conference Championship round and took their 3 BAL players in the Divisional round. Then they could avoid taking zeros regardless of who won the BUF vs BAL game, and this wouldn't hurt their scoring much.

(This is not to pick on Scoresman; I think their entry posted here actually has the best chance of winning out of the ones that have been posted so far.)
Agree, this was my mindset. Even having 2 teams in the SB, you really have to nail that exact SB to win this thing I would think?

Maybe my strategy is off, but I have all QBs round 1, so should do okay there. R2 is nothing but Chiefs and Ravens as I feel both those 2 teams will be in a round 2 game, so loaded up on the best 6 from those 2 teams.

I'm taking a gamble but feel decent about Detroit and Philly both being in the AFCC, so loaded up on the best 6 from those teams there.

And if Buffalo is in the SB, I should have big points across the board with 5X everyone's points. 5X a buffalo kicker I feel better about than guessing if Det/Phi would be in the SB because being wrong ruins the entry there.
The thing I'm most worried about with your team is that you're counting on both DET & PHI to make it to the NFCCG, but you didn't pick either in the Super Bowl.

If it's a BUF-DET Super Bowl you'll have an uphill battle against entries that included some DET players in the Super Bowl round, and if it's a BUF-PHI Super Bowl then you'll have an uphill battle against entries that included some PHI players.

And both of those Super Bowl matchups are likely enough so that there will probably be lots of entries with each of them (more with BUF-DET than with BUF-PHI).
ya true, it is gambling yet playing it safe in a way i suppose. My only point being, it seems like if you don't have all 6 of your round 4 guys actually in the sb, it would be hard to win.

Too many teams will have Buffalo Det/Phi. Your Bass will be getting smoked by Hurts and Gibbs. Prize pool is only 12 deep. No room to play it safe.

Might work for a Buffalo Rams Bowl
so basically your final round you should pick (and have to nail) both sb teams. Hmm... might swap it to a bigger risk there.
If you pick only 1 SB team, then you're rooting for an upset in the other conference. e.g., If it's a DET-PIT Super Bowl, not many entries will have that SB matchup, so entries with a DET-only SB have a real shot. But if it's DET-KC, then those DET-only entries are probably toast because lots of people are going to have DET-KC. (Though maybe there's an outside chance for a DET-only roster to win, if the game is a blowout win for DET, or if Mahomes is out, or if you have one of the rare Tim Patrick SB rosters and he scores 3 touchdowns, or somesuch.)

With your entry here, if it's BUF-DET or BUF-PHI then lots of other entries will have the exact matchup and not just BUF-only, and if it's something surprising like BUF-WAS then you're taking 3 zeros in the conference championship round so that doesn't really help you.
That's good feedback, thanks.

Will have to re think things a bit. I thought I almost guaranteed myself players in every round as I really like Det/Phi to play in the NFCC and Buffalo to play in the finals.
 
Comparing the entries so far in terms of number of NFL games picked. That is, how many NFL games need to go the way you predicted in order to avoid taking any zeros?

12 TheWinz
12 joey
11 Ruffrodys05
9* rustycolts
9 Dacomish
9 Scoresman
7 Deamon

* guaranteed to take at least 1 zero (BAL & PIT players both advancing past Wild Card round)

e.g., @Scoresman is relying on PHI, BUF, and BAL to win in the Wild Card round, PHI, DET, KC, and BAL winning in the Divisional round, and KC & PHI winning in the Conference Championships. That adds up to 9 games picked. There are 12 total games in the bracket, so 9 games picked means 3 games not picked. The 3 games not picked are all in the Wild Card round - they are not picking winners in: HOU vs LAC, TB vs WAS, and LAR vs MIN.

(It's possible I've made some errors in these counts.)

I think it's best not to pick more than 9 games, because there's too much chance of taking zeros if you need 10+ games to all go your way, and there's a case for picking fewer. e.g. Scoresman could pick only 8 games if they moved the 3 DET/KC/PHI players that they picked in the Divisional round to the Conference Championship round and took their 3 BAL players in the Divisional round. Then they could avoid taking zeros regardless of who won the BUF vs BAL game, and this wouldn't hurt their scoring much.

(This is not to pick on Scoresman; I think their entry posted here actually has the best chance of winning out of the ones that have been posted so far.)
Dumb guy question: What means all this?

Are my picks “bad”? Blocking me from winning?

I just picked my bracket and went with the players from the teams I thought would make it to each round.
What should I have done differently?

Ps. I SUCK at this contest. :)
 
Comparing the entries so far in terms of number of NFL games picked. That is, how many NFL games need to go the way you predicted in order to avoid taking any zeros?

12 TheWinz
12 joey
11 Ruffrodys05
9* rustycolts
9 Dacomish
9 Scoresman
7 Deamon

* guaranteed to take at least 1 zero (BAL & PIT players both advancing past Wild Card round)

e.g., @Scoresman is relying on PHI, BUF, and BAL to win in the Wild Card round, PHI, DET, KC, and BAL winning in the Divisional round, and KC & PHI winning in the Conference Championships. That adds up to 9 games picked. There are 12 total games in the bracket, so 9 games picked means 3 games not picked. The 3 games not picked are all in the Wild Card round - they are not picking winners in: HOU vs LAC, TB vs WAS, and LAR vs MIN.

(It's possible I've made some errors in these counts.)

I think it's best not to pick more than 9 games, because there's too much chance of taking zeros if you need 10+ games to all go your way, and there's a case for picking fewer. e.g. Scoresman could pick only 8 games if they moved the 3 DET/KC/PHI players that they picked in the Divisional round to the Conference Championship round and took their 3 BAL players in the Divisional round. Then they could avoid taking zeros regardless of who won the BUF vs BAL game, and this wouldn't hurt their scoring much.

(This is not to pick on Scoresman; I think their entry posted here actually has the best chance of winning out of the ones that have been posted so far.)
Yea I saw that later. Swapped Wilson and Herbert. I wanted to pick all losing QBs for the 1st round. So my team would be a little different I went all QBs in the 2nd round as well.

I'm hoping Ravens can make it to KC so I went all 6 Ravens in champ round. They don't need to win just score a crap load.

Went all 6 Lions in SB round. They haven't won a championship since the 50s so law and averages and all that stuff.
 
Comparing the entries so far in terms of number of NFL games picked. That is, how many NFL games need to go the way you predicted in order to avoid taking any zeros?

12 TheWinz
12 joey
11 Ruffrodys05
9* rustycolts
9 Dacomish
9 Scoresman
7 Deamon

* guaranteed to take at least 1 zero (BAL & PIT players both advancing past Wild Card round)

e.g., @Scoresman is relying on PHI, BUF, and BAL to win in the Wild Card round, PHI, DET, KC, and BAL winning in the Divisional round, and KC & PHI winning in the Conference Championships. That adds up to 9 games picked. There are 12 total games in the bracket, so 9 games picked means 3 games not picked. The 3 games not picked are all in the Wild Card round - they are not picking winners in: HOU vs LAC, TB vs WAS, and LAR vs MIN.

(It's possible I've made some errors in these counts.)

I think it's best not to pick more than 9 games, because there's too much chance of taking zeros if you need 10+ games to all go your way, and there's a case for picking fewer. e.g. Scoresman could pick only 8 games if they moved the 3 DET/KC/PHI players that they picked in the Divisional round to the Conference Championship round and took their 3 BAL players in the Divisional round. Then they could avoid taking zeros regardless of who won the BUF vs BAL game, and this wouldn't hurt their scoring much.

(This is not to pick on Scoresman; I think their entry posted here actually has the best chance of winning out of the ones that have been posted so far.)
Yea I saw that later. Swapped Wilson and Herbert. I wanted to pick all losing QBs for the 1st round. So my team would be a little different I went all QBs in the 2nd round as well.

I'm hoping Ravens can make it to KC so I went all 6 Ravens in champ round. They don't need to win just score a crap load.

Went all 6 Lions in SB round. They haven't won a championship since the 50s so law and averages and all that stuff.

Unless Detroit wins 40 to 0 in the Bowl, you’re toast. Your 5 and 6th scorers will get crushed by Allen, Mahomes, Lamar. Detroit def isn’t shutting out anyone either in the SB
 
Comparing the entries so far in terms of number of NFL games picked. That is, how many NFL games need to go the way you predicted in order to avoid taking any zeros?

12 TheWinz
12 joey
11 Ruffrodys05
9* rustycolts
9 Dacomish
9 Scoresman
7 Deamon

* guaranteed to take at least 1 zero (BAL & PIT players both advancing past Wild Card round)

e.g., @Scoresman is relying on PHI, BUF, and BAL to win in the Wild Card round, PHI, DET, KC, and BAL winning in the Divisional round, and KC & PHI winning in the Conference Championships. That adds up to 9 games picked. There are 12 total games in the bracket, so 9 games picked means 3 games not picked. The 3 games not picked are all in the Wild Card round - they are not picking winners in: HOU vs LAC, TB vs WAS, and LAR vs MIN.

(It's possible I've made some errors in these counts.)

I think it's best not to pick more than 9 games, because there's too much chance of taking zeros if you need 10+ games to all go your way, and there's a case for picking fewer. e.g. Scoresman could pick only 8 games if they moved the 3 DET/KC/PHI players that they picked in the Divisional round to the Conference Championship round and took their 3 BAL players in the Divisional round. Then they could avoid taking zeros regardless of who won the BUF vs BAL game, and this wouldn't hurt their scoring much.

(This is not to pick on Scoresman; I think their entry posted here actually has the best chance of winning out of the ones that have been posted so far.)
Yea I saw that later. Swapped Wilson and Herbert. I wanted to pick all losing QBs for the 1st round. So my team would be a little different I went all QBs in the 2nd round as well.

I'm hoping Ravens can make it to KC so I went all 6 Ravens in champ round. They don't need to win just score a crap load.

Went all 6 Lions in SB round. They haven't won a championship since the 50s so law and averages and all that stuff.

Unless Detroit wins 40 to 0 in the Bowl, you’re toast. Your 5 and 6th scorers will get crushed by Allen, Mahomes, Lamar. Detroit def isn’t shutting out anyone either in the SB
Oof so you're saying there's no chance. Story of my F.F. life. Well how about this one then.

Bo Nix - QB - DEN
Jordan Love - QB - GB
Josh Jacobs - RB - GB
C.J. Stroud - QB - HOU
Kyren Williams - RB - LAR
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:​

Josh Allen - QB - BUF
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Matthew Stafford - QB - LAR
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:​

Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Rashod Bateman - WR - BAL
Mark Andrews - TE - BAL
Kareem Hunt - RB - KC
Xavier Worthy - WR - KC

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:​

Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Jameson Williams - WR - DET
Sam LaPorta - TE - DET
Jake Bates - PK - DET
 

All birds Super Bowl? Why not. It's either that or go full Packers homer, but no matter what my heart tells me, it just feels dumb.

In the Wildcard round, you have:​

Rashod Bateman - WR - BAL
Josh Jacobs - RB - GB
Dontayvion Wicks - WR - GB
Puka Nacua - WR - LAR
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB
Mike Evans - WR - TB

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:​

Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
J.K. Dobbins - RB - LAC
Ladd McConkey - WR - LAC
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:​

Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Jameson Williams - WR - DET
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Xavier Worthy - WR - KC
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:​

Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Zay Flowers - WR - BAL
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
DeVonta Smith - WR - PHI
 
Playing the 6 “losing QB” round one is a solid move.

Think I did that last year but changing up this time. TB WAS could be a shootout. Loading up on a couple players on the losing side might be better. Probably throw in Puka too.

Mostly irrelevant in early rounds by having a more unique final 6 that hits. Multiplier is huge compared to wild card round

It's hard to figure out whether being unique early and piling up a few decent points, or being unique in the last two rounds will end up tipping the scale. Trying to approach it like a high entry # DFS contest is tough to figure out.
 
Think I am finally there....lots of coin flips round 1 and really can't decide between Balt/Buff in Div round so changed things up to have those players going in Div rather than 1 set going to CC:

You have successfully entered!

In the Wildcard round, you have:​

Puka Nacua - WR - LAR
Sam Darnold - QB - MIN
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB
Mike Evans - WR - TB
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:​

Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Mark Andrews - TE - BAL
Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Khalil Shakir - WR - BUF

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:​

Sam LaPorta - TE - DET
Xavier Worthy - WR - KC
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI
DeVonta Smith - WR - PHI

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:​

Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Jameson Williams - WR - DET
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC
 
If you pick only 1 SB team, then you're rooting for an upset in the other conference. e.g., If it's a DET-PIT Super Bowl, not many entries will have that SB matchup, so entries with a DET-only SB have a real shot. But if it's DET-KC, then those DET-only entries are probably toast because lots of people are going to have DET-KC. (Though maybe there's an outside chance for a DET-only roster to win, if the game is a blowout win for DET, or if Mahomes is out, or if you have one of the rare Tim Patrick SB rosters and he scores 3 touchdowns, or somesuch.)

With your entry here, if it's BUF-DET or BUF-PHI then lots of other entries will have the exact matchup and not just BUF-only, and if it's something surprising like BUF-WAS then you're taking 3 zeros in the conference championship round so that doesn't really help you.
hows this?

In the Wildcard round, you have:​


Bo Nix - QB - DEN
C.J. Stroud - QB - HOU
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Matthew Stafford - QB - LAR
Sam Darnold - QB - MIN
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS


In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:​


Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Justin Tucker - PK - BAL
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB
Bucky Irving - RB - TB
Mike Evans - WR - TB


In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:​


Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Sam LaPorta - TE - DET
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC


In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:​


Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI
DeVonta Smith - WR - PHI
 
If you pick only 1 SB team, then you're rooting for an upset in the other conference. e.g., If it's a DET-PIT Super Bowl, not many entries will have that SB matchup, so entries with a DET-only SB have a real shot. But if it's DET-KC, then those DET-only entries are probably toast because lots of people are going to have DET-KC. (Though maybe there's an outside chance for a DET-only roster to win, if the game is a blowout win for DET, or if Mahomes is out, or if you have one of the rare Tim Patrick SB rosters and he scores 3 touchdowns, or somesuch.)

With your entry here, if it's BUF-DET or BUF-PHI then lots of other entries will have the exact matchup and not just BUF-only, and if it's something surprising like BUF-WAS then you're taking 3 zeros in the conference championship round so that doesn't really help you.
hows this?

In the Wildcard round, you have:​


Bo Nix - QB - DEN
C.J. Stroud - QB - HOU
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Matthew Stafford - QB - LAR
Sam Darnold - QB - MIN
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS


In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:​


Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Justin Tucker - PK - BAL
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB
Bucky Irving - RB - TB
Mike Evans - WR - TB


In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:​


Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Sam LaPorta - TE - DET
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC


In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:​


Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI
DeVonta Smith - WR - PHI
It's a pretty solid entry. IMO has a better than average chance of winning the contest.

It's a pretty different approach than your first entry, since you've picked 10 games (vs. 7 for the first entry). If you want to pick fewer games you could, e.g. by removing your KC players from the CC round and replacing them with BUF/DET/PHI players, and then maybe also removing one of your Divisional teams and replacing them with some combination of KC players and other teams you've already picked.
 
@TheWinz no clue how to attack this really, hows this look? I'm curious how the new QB/DEF scoring will affect things. Would QB always be more valuable than an RB? Hmmm...
I ran numbers based on the scoring, and here are weekly averages for the top 5 at each position for the playoffs:

QB
Jackson - 25.8
Allen - 22.4
Hurts - 21.7
Mayfield - 21.6
Daniels - 20.6

RB
Barkley - 22.0
Gibbs - 21.5
Henry - 19.9
Jacobs - 17.6
Williams - 17.4

WR
Nacua - 18.8
Jefferson - 18.7
St. Brown - 18.7
Collins - 17.6
Evans - 17.2

TE
Kelce - 15.4
LaPorta - 12.8
Andrews - 12.7
Goedert - 12.5
Otton - 12.3

K
Boswell - 11.9
Dicker - 11.2
Fairbairn - 10.8
Reichard - 10.7
Bates/McLaughlin - 10.0

D
DEN - 12.9
MIN - 11.9
HOU - 11.2
BUF - 10.9
PIT - 10.5

Looking above, I have to rank them QB, RB, WR, TE, D, and K.
Interesting. I was planning to load up on TE since they get 1.5 points per reception, but based on the average scores above that seems like an unwise decision.
 
This contest is always one of my favorites. I always start with highest scorers in perceived last game and then work my way back. Then 2nd pass shuffles guys based on where I think I'll need the points vs the field. Then it always makes it way back to something resembling the first pass. So weird.
 
Since this is a drastic change from prior years, and I can't, and don't want, to focus on multiple "here is my lineup" posts...what this the bottom line of this contest?

No cap and can take 24 players. Rules are not clear. Thanks for offering but it gives me a ******* headache.
 
Since this is a drastic change from prior years, and I can't, and don't want, to focus on multiple "here is my lineup" posts...what this the bottom line of this contest?

No cap and can take 24 players. Rules are not clear. Thanks for offering but it gives me a ******* headache.
I kind of like this game. If you do look at some of the other lineups you can get an idea of what strategy others are using or what they want you to think they are using.

Pretty simple really 4 rounds,pick 6 players per round (the picks are one and done). Point values get greater per round. Most total points at end of round 4 winner winner chicken dinner.
 
Since this is a drastic change from prior years, and I can't, and don't want, to focus on multiple "here is my lineup" posts...what this the bottom line of this contest?

No cap and can take 24 players. Rules are not clear. Thanks for offering but it gives me a ******* headache.
My simple recipe for a solid team is:

Step 1: Pick teams. Pick 2 teams to make the Super Bowl, 1 other team to make the conference championship, and 2-3 other teams to make the divisional round.
More details: Sprinkle in upsets so that you aren't just picking the same teams as everyone else, but not too many (e.g., one surprise SB team outside the obvious 5 contenders is probably enough upsets on its own). Check the NFL playoff bracket to make sure that it's possible for your teams to all make it to these rounds (e.g. BAL-BUF will play in the divisional round if they advance, so don't pick them both to make it to the conference championship game or beyond). Include both #1 seeds among these 5-6 teams that you pick, since we know that they'll at least make it to the divisional round.

Step 2: Pick players. Pick 6 of the top players from your 2 Super Bowl teams in the SB round (2-4 players from each). Pick 3-5 of the top players from your CC team and 1-3 from your SB teams in the CC round. Pick 6 of the top players from your divisional round teams in the divisional round. Pick 6 of the top players from other teams in the wild card round.
More details: Quarterbacks and the obvious stars are mostly the best options. When you have to dig deeper than that in the later rounds, PK or DEF are possibilities. If you went light on the upsets then maybe pick some slightly unusual players (e.g. a SB player who isn't one of the team's obvious top 4 options).
 
Smart move to change the scoring from the regular season so QB's do not dominate also giving RB's 1 PPR was smart.

So here is what I suggest all the rules for scoring you put in place for the post season make those the same scoring rules for the regular season at least on the offensive side of the ball.

QB scoring should be 4 pts TD pass
RBs should be scoring 1 PPR

Just a suggestion (same one I made last year and will make again next year when this post is ignored)
 
In the past 10 years during the Wildcard Round, 21 out of 48 road teams won (44%)
In the past 10 years during the Divisional Round, 11 out of 40 road teams won (28%)
In the past 10 years during the Championship Round, 5 out of 20 road teams won (25%)

While I did expect the percentages to go down from week to week, I didn't think they would be that high.
 
Here is where I am unless I change my mind late...

In the Wildcard round, you have:​

Sam Darnold - QB - MIN
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB
Mike Evans - WR - TB
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS
Terry McLaurin - WR - WAS

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:​

Mark Andrews - TE - BAL
Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Xavier Worthy - WR - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:​

Zay Flowers - WR - BAL
David Montgomery - RB - DET
Jameson Williams - WR - DET
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:​

Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Sam LaPorta - TE - DET

-QG
 
I always participate in every one of the FootballGuys Subscriber Contests and have done well for a time or two in the regular season contest, but I just can't seem to master this one. I will still try and will post my entry below, but I have very low confidence. Perhaps it is unavoidable, but this one is the exact opposite as the regular season, in that with the regular season you win week by week and even though your player roster stays the same, it is possible to have renewed confidence each week. With this one, most of the teams come crashing down in the Wild Card Weekend, and even if you pick teams that advance, you can have a feeling of doom by Monday.

In the Wildcard round, you have these players:​

Bo Nix - QB - DEN
Jordan Love - QB - GB
Matthew Stafford - QB - LAR
Puka Nacua - WR - LAR
Sam Darnold - QB - MIN
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have these players:​

Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Ladd McConkey - WR - LAC
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS
Terry McLaurin - WR - WAS

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have these players:​

Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Xavier Worthy - WR - KC
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have these players:​

Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Mark Andrews - TE - BAL
Jared Goff - QB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Sam LaPorta - TE - DET

Feel free to critque this team, but I have a busy day ahead helping the wife prepare some soup to be delivered to several of our friends that need encouragement today and I may not have a minute to myself until the first game is underway.

Hope that the Wild Card Weekend games are exciting and for all of you FBGers out there that have teams that are involved, hope that the oblong ball bounces your way. I don't have a team, but my Super Bowl folks above reflect my kinship to several folks here that follow the Detroit Lions and the Baltimore Ravens and I hope that both of those teams make this year special for their well deserving fans.
 
My thoughts on certain teams changed a little which necessitated altering my submission.

In the Wildcard round, you have:​

Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Bo Nix - QB - DEN
Jordan Love - QB - GB
Ladd McConkey - WR - LAC
Matthew Stafford - QB - LAR
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:​

Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB
Mike Evans - WR - TB

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:​

Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Khalil Shakir - WR - BUF
Sam Darnold - QB - MIN
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
DeVonta Smith - WR - PHI

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:​

Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Xavier Worthy - WR - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI
 
:wall: I think I did this right.

In the Wildcard round, you have:​

Bo Nix - QB - DEN
Jordan Love - QB - GB
C.J. Stroud - QB - HOU
Matthew Stafford - QB - LAR
Puka Nacua - WR - LAR
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:​

Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Sam Darnold - QB - MIN
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:​

Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI
DeVonta Smith - WR - PHI

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:​

Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
David Montgomery - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
 
Here is where I am unless I change my mind late...

In the Wildcard round, you have:​

Sam Darnold - QB - MIN
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB
Mike Evans - WR - TB
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS
Terry McLaurin - WR - WAS

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:​

Mark Andrews - TE - BAL
Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Xavier Worthy - WR - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:​

Zay Flowers - WR - BAL
David Montgomery - RB - DET
Jameson Williams - WR - DET
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:​

Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Sam LaPorta - TE - DET

-QG

I’d remove Flowers for Bateman or Monty
 
In the Wildcard round, you have:
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Puka Nacua - WR - LAR
Sam Darnold - QB - MIN
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:
Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Mark Andrews - TE - BAL
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:
Khalil Shakir - WR - BUF
David Montgomery - RB - DET
Sam LaPorta - TE - DET
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Xavier Worthy - WR - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:
Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Jameson Williams - WR - DET

8 games picked
 
In the Wildcard round, you have:
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Puka Nacua - WR - LAR
Sam Darnold - QB - MIN
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:
Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Mark Andrews - TE - BAL
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:
Khalil Shakir - WR - BUF
David Montgomery - RB - DET
Sam LaPorta - TE - DET
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Xavier Worthy - WR - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:
Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Jameson Williams - WR - DET

8 games picked
Looks like 9 games
 

In the Wildcard round, you have:​

Kyren Williams - RB - LAR
Puka Nacua - WR - LAR
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Mike Evans - WR - TB
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS
Terry McLaurin - WR - WAS

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:​

Mark Andrews - TE - BAL
Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Xavier Worthy - WR - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:​

Rashod Bateman - WR - BAL
David Montgomery - RB - DET
Jameson Williams - WR - DET
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:​

Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Sam LaPorta - TE - DET


Updated. Reached Bateman conclusion separately

-QG
 
What the heck.

In the Wildcard round, you have:​

Bo Nix - QB - DEN
Josh Jacobs - RB - GB
C.J. Stroud - QB - HOU
Nico Collins - WR - HOU
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:​

Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Kyren Williams - RB - LAR
Puka Nacua - WR - LAR
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:​

Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Xavier Worthy - WR - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:​

Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Buffalo Bills - TD - BUF
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI
 

In the Wildcard round, you have:​

Kyren Williams - RB - LAR
Puka Nacua - WR - LAR
Sam Darnold - QB - MIN
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS
Terry McLaurin - WR - WAS

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:​

Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB
Mike Evans - WR - TB

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:​

Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Ladd McConkey - WR - LAC
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:​

Josh Allen - QB - BUF
James Cook - RB - BUF
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Saquon Barkley - RB - PHI
DeVonta Smith - WR - PHI
Dallas Goedert - TE - PHI

Let's get this party started!
 
Wildcard round
Bo Nix - qb - DEN 0.00 x 1 = 0.00
Jordan Love - qb - GB 0.00 x 1 = 0.00
Nico Collins - wr - HOU 0.00 x 1 = 0.00
Sam Darnold - qb - MIN 0.00 x 1 = 0.00
Justin Jefferson - wr - MIN 0.00 x 1 = 0.00
Baker Mayfield - qb - TB 0.00 x 1 = 0.00


Divisional round
Lamar Jackson - qb - BAL 0.00 x 2 = 0.00
Derrick Henry - rb - BAL 0.00 x 2 = 0.00
Justin Herbert - qb - LAC 0.00 x 2 = 0.00
Matthew Stafford - qb - LAR 0.00 x 2 = 0.00
Puka Nacua - wr - LAR 0.00 x 2 = 0.00
Jayden Daniels - qb - WAS 0.00 x 2 = 0.00


Championship round
Jahmyr Gibbs - rb - DET 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Jameson Williams - wr - DET 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Patrick Mahomes - qb - KC 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Xavier Worthy - wr - KC 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Jalen Hurts - qb - PHI 0.00 x 3 = 0.00
Saquon Barkley - rb - PHI 0.00 x 3 = 0.00


Super Bowl
Josh Allen - qb - BUF 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
James Cook - rb - BUF 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Khalil Shakir - wr - BUF 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Jared Goff - qb - DET 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Amon-Ra St. Brown - wr - DET 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
Sam LaPorta - te - DET 0.00 x 5 = 0.00
 
Apologies for the formatting, but you'll be able to figure this out

Code:
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23  GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00MahoPa00HopkDe00KelcTr00  19
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Apologies for the formatting, but you'll be able to figure this out

Code:
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2  AlleJo01CookJa05ShakKh00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00  188
3  AlleJo01CookJa05GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00LapoSa00  108
4  AlleJo01CookJa05GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00WillJa09  98
5  JackLa00HenrDe00FlowZa00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00  87
6  GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00MahoPa00WortXa00KelcTr00  76
7  AlleJo01CookJa05ShakKh00HurtJa00BarkSa00BrowAJ00  61
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24  GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00WillJa09MahoPa00KelcTr00  19
Do you have the most common SB team matchups?
 
Apologies for the formatting, but you'll be able to figure this out

Code:
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2  AlleJo01CookJa05ShakKh00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00  188
3  AlleJo01CookJa05GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00LapoSa00  108
4  AlleJo01CookJa05GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00WillJa09  98
5  JackLa00HenrDe00FlowZa00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00  87
6  GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00MahoPa00WortXa00KelcTr00  76
7  AlleJo01CookJa05ShakKh00HurtJa00BarkSa00BrowAJ00  61
8  JackLa00HenrDe00AndrMa00HurtJa00BarkSa00BrowAJ00  60
9  JackLa00HenrDe00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00WillJa09  50
10  AlleJo01CookJa05HurtJa00BarkSa00BrowAJ00SmitDe04  43
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24  GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00WillJa09MahoPa00KelcTr00  19
Do you have the most common SB team matchups?

I do!

913 BUFDET
686 BALDET
494 DETKC
234 BUFPHI
180 BALPHI
106 KCPHI
72 DET
49 BUFDETKCPHI
42 BALBUFDETKCPHI
37 BALDETKCPHI
34 BUFDETKC
32 DETKCPHI
29 BALDETKC
29 BUFMIN
24 BALBUFDETKC
22 BALBUFDET
22 BALBUFDETPHI
19 BALMIN
18 BUFDETPHI
17 BALDETPHI
10 KCLAR
9 PHI
9 DETPHI
9 BUFGB
9 KCMIN


517 BUF-3 DET-3
512 BAL-3 DET-3
357 BUF-2 DET-4
346 DET-3 KC-3
160 BUF-3 PHI-3
152 BAL-2 DET-4
146 BAL-3 PHI-3
119 DET-4 KC-2
83 KC-3 PHI-3
72 DET-6
69 BUF-2 PHI-4
24 BAL-2 PHI-4
23 BAL-1 BUF-1 DET-2 KC-1 PHI-1
22 BUF-4 DET-2
18 KC-2 PHI-4
16 BUF-3 MIN-3
16 DET-2 KC-4
15 BUF-2 DET-2 KC-1 PHI-1
15 BUF-1 DET-5
13 BUF-2 DET-3 KC-1
13 BAL-3 MIN-3
11 BUF-2 MIN-4
11 DET-5 KC-1
9 BAL-1 BUF-1 DET-2 PHI-2
 
My team

In the Wildcard round, you have:
Josh Allen - QB - BUF
Puka Nacua - WR - LAR
Sam Darnold - QB - MIN
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
Jayden Daniels - QB - WAS

In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:
Jared Goff - QB - DET
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR - DET
Baker Mayfield - QB - TB
Bucky Irving - RB - TB
Mike Evans - WR - TB

In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Isiah Pacheco - RB - KC
Marquise Brown - WR - KC
Xavier Worthy - WR - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC
Harrison Butker - PK - KC

In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:
Lamar Jackson - QB - BAL
Derrick Henry - RB - BAL
Rashod Bateman - WR - BAL
Mark Andrews - TE - BAL
Justin Tucker - PK - BAL
Baltimore Ravens - TD - BAL


In previous years I followed my recipe and picked 8-9 games, including 2 SB teams and 1 other team in the conference championship. This year I decided to do something different and pick just 1 SB team, and just 5 games total (BAL to win WC-Div-CC, KC to win Div, TB to win WC).

By my reckoning there's about an 11% chance of this bracket hitting (every team making it to the round I've predicted them). There's about a 4% chance that this bracket will hit and the NFC SB team will be a surprise (not DET or PHI), which I am pretty much depending on in order to win (because my entry is unlikely to withstand a BAL-DET or BAL-PHI Super Bowl).

Even if an NFC underdog does make the SB, I will still have to contend against other teams that picked a BAL-only SB, and any that correctly call the exact matchup, and some BAL-DET or BAL-PHI teams (especially if they took 4 BAL players and made good choices about which ones to pick, e.g. if Flowers has a big game).

I picked an AFC team in the SB because the chances of one of the 5 surprise NFC teams making the SB is much higher than the chances of one of the 4 surprise AFC teams making the Super Bowl (more than double, according to the betting lines I've seen). For the championship game I went with another AFC team because if I'd taken an NFC team that would've excluded many of the paths for a surprise NFC team to make the Super Bowl. Many have Baltimore as the best team in the AFC, so I think a KC-BAL conference championship will be close to a coin flip, and I expect entries with KC in the SB to be much more common than entries with BAL in the SB, so I went with BAL as my Super Bowl team.

In the Divisional round I included 1 more wrinkle, picking 3 TB players and none from BUF. This is basically soft-picking a DEN over BUF upset. Assuming TB wins: if DEN wins I get an edge on most of the field (because pretty much everyone included BUF players in the divisional round or later and they'll all get zeros). In the ~1% of cases where my bracket holds, and the NFC team is a surprise, and BUF loses in the WC round, my entry is looking even better against the field. And if the big favorite BUF does win, then that's not a disaster (as long as TB wins too) - I think it's actually close to a wash, with my team having a slightly lower projection but more uniqueness (it's rare to have Josh Allen in the WC round rather than the Div). A DEN win over BUF is unlikely, but if we're counting on BAL to make the SB then it's somewhat less unlikely because it means that BAL has an easier road to the SB. If someone ran a million simulations of the playoff, they'd probably find that BUF loses to DEN in about 20% of all simulations, but in about 30% of the simulations where BAL made the Super Bowl. Of course this does mean that I'm counting on TB to beat WAS, rather than counting on BUF to beat DEN, which makes the 11% and 4% numbers I mentioned earlier slightly lower than they would've been if I'd just picked the obvious big favorite to make the Divisional round.
 
Apologies for the formatting, but you'll be able to figure this out

Code:
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2  AlleJo01CookJa05ShakKh00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00  188
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4  AlleJo01CookJa05GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00WillJa09  98
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22  JackLa00HenrDe00GoffJa00GibbJa00MontDa01StBrAm00  20
23  GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00MahoPa00HopkDe00KelcTr00  19
24  GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00WillJa09MahoPa00KelcTr00  19
Do you have the most common SB team matchups?

I do!

913 BUFDET
686 BALDET
494 DETKC
234 BUFPHI
180 BALPHI
106 KCPHI
72 DET
49 BUFDETKCPHI
42 BALBUFDETKCPHI
37 BALDETKCPHI
34 BUFDETKC
32 DETKCPHI
29 BALDETKC
29 BUFMIN
24 BALBUFDETKC
22 BALBUFDET
22 BALBUFDETPHI
19 BALMIN
18 BUFDETPHI
17 BALDETPHI
10 KCLAR
9 PHI
9 DETPHI
9 BUFGB
9 KCMIN


517 BUF-3 DET-3
512 BAL-3 DET-3
357 BUF-2 DET-4
346 DET-3 KC-3
160 BUF-3 PHI-3
152 BAL-2 DET-4
146 BAL-3 PHI-3
119 DET-4 KC-2
83 KC-3 PHI-3
72 DET-6
69 BUF-2 PHI-4
24 BAL-2 PHI-4
23 BAL-1 BUF-1 DET-2 KC-1 PHI-1
22 BUF-4 DET-2
18 KC-2 PHI-4
16 BUF-3 MIN-3
16 DET-2 KC-4
15 BUF-2 DET-2 KC-1 PHI-1
15 BUF-1 DET-5
13 BUF-2 DET-3 KC-1
13 BAL-3 MIN-3
11 BUF-2 MIN-4
11 DET-5 KC-1
9 BAL-1 BUF-1 DET-2 PHI-2
Whoa, KC was the 3rd most popular AFC Super Bowl choice. I did not see that coming.
 
Apologies for the formatting, but you'll be able to figure this out

Code:
1  JackLa00HenrDe00AndrMa00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00  200
2  AlleJo01CookJa05ShakKh00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00  188
3  AlleJo01CookJa05GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00LapoSa00  108
4  AlleJo01CookJa05GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00WillJa09  98
5  JackLa00HenrDe00FlowZa00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00  87
6  GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00MahoPa00WortXa00KelcTr00  76
7  AlleJo01CookJa05ShakKh00HurtJa00BarkSa00BrowAJ00  61
8  JackLa00HenrDe00AndrMa00HurtJa00BarkSa00BrowAJ00  60
9  JackLa00HenrDe00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00WillJa09  50
10  AlleJo01CookJa05HurtJa00BarkSa00BrowAJ00SmitDe04  43
11  AlleJo01CookJa05GoffJa00GibbJa00MontDa01StBrAm00  40
12  GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00MahoPa00PachIs00KelcTr00  38
13  AlleJo01CookJa05CoopAm00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00  37
14  JackLa00HenrDe00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00LapoSa00  31
15  GoffJa00GibbJa00MontDa01StBrAm00WillJa09LapoSa00  30
16  JackLa00HenrDe00BateRa00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00  25
17  GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00LapoSa00MahoPa00KelcTr00  24
18  AlleJo01CookJa05ColeKe01GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00  24
19  MahoPa00WortXa00KelcTr00HurtJa00BarkSa00BrowAJ00  23
20  AlleJo01CookJa05KincDa00GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00  23
21  JackLa00HenrDe00FlowZa00HurtJa00BarkSa00BrowAJ00  22
22  JackLa00HenrDe00GoffJa00GibbJa00MontDa01StBrAm00  20
23  GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00MahoPa00HopkDe00KelcTr00  19
24  GoffJa00GibbJa00StBrAm00WillJa09MahoPa00KelcTr00  19
Do you have the most common SB team matchups?

I do!

913 BUFDET
686 BALDET
494 DETKC
234 BUFPHI
180 BALPHI
106 KCPHI
72 DET
49 BUFDETKCPHI
42 BALBUFDETKCPHI
37 BALDETKCPHI
34 BUFDETKC
32 DETKCPHI
29 BALDETKC
29 BUFMIN
24 BALBUFDETKC
22 BALBUFDET
22 BALBUFDETPHI
19 BALMIN
18 BUFDETPHI
17 BALDETPHI
10 KCLAR
9 PHI
9 DETPHI
9 BUFGB
9 KCMIN


517 BUF-3 DET-3
512 BAL-3 DET-3
357 BUF-2 DET-4
346 DET-3 KC-3
160 BUF-3 PHI-3
152 BAL-2 DET-4
146 BAL-3 PHI-3
119 DET-4 KC-2
83 KC-3 PHI-3
72 DET-6
69 BUF-2 PHI-4
24 BAL-2 PHI-4
23 BAL-1 BUF-1 DET-2 KC-1 PHI-1
22 BUF-4 DET-2
18 KC-2 PHI-4
16 BUF-3 MIN-3
16 DET-2 KC-4
15 BUF-2 DET-2 KC-1 PHI-1
15 BUF-1 DET-5
13 BUF-2 DET-3 KC-1
13 BAL-3 MIN-3
11 BUF-2 MIN-4
11 DET-5 KC-1
9 BAL-1 BUF-1 DET-2 PHI-2
Of the entries you included here (which is most but not all of them):

87% of entries picked a 2-team SB matchup
3% of entries picked 1 SB team
11% of entries included multiple SB teams from the same conference

Of the entries that picked a 2-team SB matchup
NFC team:
78% DET
19% PHI
2% MIN
1% GB or LAR

AFC team:
44% BUF
33% BAL
23% KC

Rarer choices didn't get included in the list, but are probably around 1% at most.

Of the entries that picked 1 SB team:
89% picked DET
11% picked PHI

The rarer AFC teams might be close behind PHI, so Detroit is 8x the second-highest singleton SB team but probably not close to 89% of the actual total.

Still, Detroit was by far the most popular SB team in 2-team matchups, and even moreso in entries with 1 SB team. IMO it was a mistake to go with an NFC team if you were going to pick just 1 SB team, although I can see why people did it - DET has the best chance to make the Super Bowl, it's hard to choose among the AFC contenders, DET has lots of good fantasy players so you can have a strong 6 from just the one team.
 
The links from last year to see all teams with a given Super Bowl matchup still work for this year's contest, e.g. here is BAL-TB and here is BAL-only.

Checking the SB matchups I care most about, the counts are:
19 BAL-MIN
9 BAL-TB
8 BAL-LAR
6 BAL-GB
6 BAL only (including me)

If I hit on my bracket (BAL in SB, not DET or PHI in SB, TB beats WAS), the Super Bowl will be 1 of these 4 matchups, and my competition with a complete Super Bowl 6 will be the 5 other BAL-only entries plus one of these groups of between 6 and 19 entries.

Here are all the entries with just 1 SB team (excluding LAC & PIT, who I can't look up since they've already lost):
72 DET
9 PHI
6 BAL
5 BUF
4 KC
1 HOU
1 DEN
 
Last edited:
Standings are posted. Let me know if you see anything fishy.


Tied for last
:kicksrock:

-QG
1557th place. So you’re saying there’s a chance.
On tied for 3rd out of 9 with the same Super Bowl 6.

🤞🤞🤞
Up to 1358th place. Sky’s the limit! ;)
You guys are scoring points?!?....lol, picking all players in SNF/MNF games in WC round kinda sucks to have to wait so long for me!
 
anyone have Dobbins in their line up and showing 0 points scored?
I know it’s only 26 yards rushing, but every point counts.

ETA: Nevermind. Posted my current standings but it keeps changing every time I refresh the page even though there’s no game going on right now.
 
Last edited:
Can't believe I was still at 0 after four games :(

Finally got on the board with Daniels, McLaurin and Evans so now at 67.42 according to Quizzomatic.

-QG
 

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