Deamon
Footballguy
That's good feedback, thanks.If you pick only 1 SB team, then you're rooting for an upset in the other conference. e.g., If it's a DET-PIT Super Bowl, not many entries will have that SB matchup, so entries with a DET-only SB have a real shot. But if it's DET-KC, then those DET-only entries are probably toast because lots of people are going to have DET-KC. (Though maybe there's an outside chance for a DET-only roster to win, if the game is a blowout win for DET, or if Mahomes is out, or if you have one of the rare Tim Patrick SB rosters and he scores 3 touchdowns, or somesuch.)so basically your final round you should pick (and have to nail) both sb teams. Hmm... might swap it to a bigger risk there.ya true, it is gambling yet playing it safe in a way i suppose. My only point being, it seems like if you don't have all 6 of your round 4 guys actually in the sb, it would be hard to win.The thing I'm most worried about with your team is that you're counting on both DET & PHI to make it to the NFCCG, but you didn't pick either in the Super Bowl.Agree, this was my mindset. Even having 2 teams in the SB, you really have to nail that exact SB to win this thing I would think?Comparing the entries so far in terms of number of NFL games picked. That is, how many NFL games need to go the way you predicted in order to avoid taking any zeros?
12 TheWinz
12 joey
11 Ruffrodys05
9* rustycolts
9 Dacomish
9 Scoresman
7 Deamon
* guaranteed to take at least 1 zero (BAL & PIT players both advancing past Wild Card round)
e.g., @Scoresman is relying on PHI, BUF, and BAL to win in the Wild Card round, PHI, DET, KC, and BAL winning in the Divisional round, and KC & PHI winning in the Conference Championships. That adds up to 9 games picked. There are 12 total games in the bracket, so 9 games picked means 3 games not picked. The 3 games not picked are all in the Wild Card round - they are not picking winners in: HOU vs LAC, TB vs WAS, and LAR vs MIN.
(It's possible I've made some errors in these counts.)
I think it's best not to pick more than 9 games, because there's too much chance of taking zeros if you need 10+ games to all go your way, and there's a case for picking fewer. e.g. Scoresman could pick only 8 games if they moved the 3 DET/KC/PHI players that they picked in the Divisional round to the Conference Championship round and took their 3 BAL players in the Divisional round. Then they could avoid taking zeros regardless of who won the BUF vs BAL game, and this wouldn't hurt their scoring much.
(This is not to pick on Scoresman; I think their entry posted here actually has the best chance of winning out of the ones that have been posted so far.)
Maybe my strategy is off, but I have all QBs round 1, so should do okay there. R2 is nothing but Chiefs and Ravens as I feel both those 2 teams will be in a round 2 game, so loaded up on the best 6 from those 2 teams.
I'm taking a gamble but feel decent about Detroit and Philly both being in the AFCC, so loaded up on the best 6 from those teams there.
And if Buffalo is in the SB, I should have big points across the board with 5X everyone's points. 5X a buffalo kicker I feel better about than guessing if Det/Phi would be in the SB because being wrong ruins the entry there.
If it's a BUF-DET Super Bowl you'll have an uphill battle against entries that included some DET players in the Super Bowl round, and if it's a BUF-PHI Super Bowl then you'll have an uphill battle against entries that included some PHI players.
And both of those Super Bowl matchups are likely enough so that there will probably be lots of entries with each of them (more with BUF-DET than with BUF-PHI).ya true, it is gambling yet playing it safe in a way i suppose. My only point being, it seems like if you don't have all 6 of your round 4 guys actually in the sb, it would be hard to win.The thing I'm most worried about with your team is that you're counting on both DET & PHI to make it to the NFCCG, but you didn't pick either in the Super Bowl.Agree, this was my mindset. Even having 2 teams in the SB, you really have to nail that exact SB to win this thing I would think?Comparing the entries so far in terms of number of NFL games picked. That is, how many NFL games need to go the way you predicted in order to avoid taking any zeros?
12 TheWinz
12 joey
11 Ruffrodys05
9* rustycolts
9 Dacomish
9 Scoresman
7 Deamon
* guaranteed to take at least 1 zero (BAL & PIT players both advancing past Wild Card round)
e.g., @Scoresman is relying on PHI, BUF, and BAL to win in the Wild Card round, PHI, DET, KC, and BAL winning in the Divisional round, and KC & PHI winning in the Conference Championships. That adds up to 9 games picked. There are 12 total games in the bracket, so 9 games picked means 3 games not picked. The 3 games not picked are all in the Wild Card round - they are not picking winners in: HOU vs LAC, TB vs WAS, and LAR vs MIN.
(It's possible I've made some errors in these counts.)
I think it's best not to pick more than 9 games, because there's too much chance of taking zeros if you need 10+ games to all go your way, and there's a case for picking fewer. e.g. Scoresman could pick only 8 games if they moved the 3 DET/KC/PHI players that they picked in the Divisional round to the Conference Championship round and took their 3 BAL players in the Divisional round. Then they could avoid taking zeros regardless of who won the BUF vs BAL game, and this wouldn't hurt their scoring much.
(This is not to pick on Scoresman; I think their entry posted here actually has the best chance of winning out of the ones that have been posted so far.)
Maybe my strategy is off, but I have all QBs round 1, so should do okay there. R2 is nothing but Chiefs and Ravens as I feel both those 2 teams will be in a round 2 game, so loaded up on the best 6 from those 2 teams.
I'm taking a gamble but feel decent about Detroit and Philly both being in the AFCC, so loaded up on the best 6 from those teams there.
And if Buffalo is in the SB, I should have big points across the board with 5X everyone's points. 5X a buffalo kicker I feel better about than guessing if Det/Phi would be in the SB because being wrong ruins the entry there.
If it's a BUF-DET Super Bowl you'll have an uphill battle against entries that included some DET players in the Super Bowl round, and if it's a BUF-PHI Super Bowl then you'll have an uphill battle against entries that included some PHI players.
And both of those Super Bowl matchups are likely enough so that there will probably be lots of entries with each of them (more with BUF-DET than with BUF-PHI).
Too many teams will have Buffalo Det/Phi. Your Bass will be getting smoked by Hurts and Gibbs. Prize pool is only 12 deep. No room to play it safe.
Might work for a Buffalo Rams Bowl
With your entry here, if it's BUF-DET or BUF-PHI then lots of other entries will have the exact matchup and not just BUF-only, and if it's something surprising like BUF-WAS then you're taking 3 zeros in the conference championship round so that doesn't really help you.
Will have to re think things a bit. I thought I almost guaranteed myself players in every round as I really like Det/Phi to play in the NFCC and Buffalo to play in the finals.