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2024 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

Breezed through with one of my highest scores of the contest (192.35). Wouldn't have minded saving that for week 15, but alas I'm in the final grouping.

Missing J.K. Dobbins for sure, but wouldn't mind McConkey coming back after being questionable all week last week. If he returns, Dobbins is my only injured player!

Jonnu Smith becoming Tua's favorite target has been a nice surprise, and there was a Jaleel McLaughlin sighting in week 13, so maybe he gets more work as the season comes to a close.

I don't know if I have the horses to win the whole damn thing, but I like my chances of posting good numbers every week to at least make it interesting.

Congrats to all who have survived this long and now a whole new sweat begins!
 
We started this week with 6 folks eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. They all advanced!!!!

Moving on to the finals are:
@bamabuddha @BlackCrowes @scottybo @Scoresman @JaBoo @da_budman :clap:

Of note
- Scoresman was this week's top dog with a score of 188.05 (30th)
- JaBoo was this week's lowest advancing team with 147.45 (206th)

Good luck in the finals!

Also, for the above 6 folks, send @Joe Bryant a PM with your name and address. Don't forget to say you are one of the 6 winners of his awesome extra $100 contest.

PM'd Joe my info. Just want to say thanks again for doing this, Joe and everyone who tracks all this stuff and makes all of the cool tools that make the contest so great!

First time in the finals!
 
Survival rate by roster size (including staff rosters):

0.6% 18 (34/5508)
1.1% 19 (18/1686)
1.5% 20 (17/1159)
3.5% 21 (30/863)
3.9% 22 (27/686)
2.7% 23 (14/522)
5.7% 24 (23/404)
5.6% 25 (17/306)
5.9% 26 (13/220)
6.7% 27 (9/135)
3.3% 28 (3/90)
6.9% 29 (4/58)
9.9% 30 (9/91)
1.9% total (218/11728)

Bigger was better, with a couple random-looking dips at 23 and 28, and there wasn't all that much difference in advance rate once you got to 24+ players. 18, 19, and 20 player rosters were the only ones with a below average advance rate... but that included 71% of all teams.

You can compare this to previous years in this spreadsheet. The pattern is remarkably similar from year to year, e.g. in 2023 the only roster sizes with a below average advance rate were 18, 19, and 20, and in 2022 it was 18, 19, and (just barely) 22. Two things that do vary are which roster size in the 26-30 comes out on top, and how large the advantage is for 26-30 player rosters vs. the average roster (in some years it's around 2x, in other years like this one it's more like 3-4x).
 
Survival rate by roster size (including staff rosters):

0.6% 18 (34/5508)
1.1% 19 (18/1686)
1.5% 20 (17/1159)
3.5% 21 (30/863)
3.9% 22 (27/686)
2.7% 23 (14/522)
5.7% 24 (23/404)
5.6% 25 (17/306)
5.9% 26 (13/220)
6.7% 27 (9/135)
3.3% 28 (3/90)
6.9% 29 (4/58)
9.9% 30 (9/91)
1.9% total (218/11728)

Bigger was better, with a couple random-looking dips at 23 and 28, and there wasn't all that much difference in advance rate once you got to 24+ players. 18, 19, and 20 player rosters were the only ones with a below average advance rate... but that included 71% of all teams.

You can compare this to previous years in this spreadsheet. The pattern is remarkably similar from year to year, e.g. in 2023 the only roster sizes with a below average advance rate were 18, 19, and 20, and in 2022 it was 18, 19, and (just barely) 22. Two things that do vary are which roster size in the 26-30 comes out on top, and how large the advantage is for 26-30 player rosters vs. the average roster (in some years it's around 2x, in other years like this one it's more like 3-4x).

I don’t know why people keep submitting small rosters when this info has been available for so long. I lost Rashee Rice for the year, a kicker also , and multiple others for good portions. You can’t survive that without more players. I would’ve been toast with a smaller roster.
 
With a final cutline of

146.65

This is now my last cutline update, good luck to all those that made the final 250 and to those 11 that still won a prize in Week 14 final cuts!

Start 11695
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 10528
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9477
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8533
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 6828
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 5467
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 4375
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 3502
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2454
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1718
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1203
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 844
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 591
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 356
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 214 (means the top 11 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)

Notes From Contest Rules:
- In weeks 1--14, the cut is based on scores from the current week only. Scores reset each week.

- Specifically, the cut will be determined as in the following example. Suppose it is week 7 and there are 2,394 entries at the beginning of the week. Because the cut percentage is 20% for that week, 2394 will be multiplied by 0.80 and the resulting number, if not an integer, will be rounded UP to the next greatest integer. In this case, 2394 * 0.8 = 1915.2. We round up to 1916. The entry with the 1916th-highest score, and all entries with an equal or greater score, will move to the next round.

- if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.

Congrats to the 214 making the final 250 ;)

And thanks to you comish for these updates :)

-QG
 
Thanks @TheWinz for tracking all year…and previous years!

Thanks @Joe Bryant for throwing in extra money…really nice gesture and just another fun sidebar to make tinkerer’s like me exhibit some control. 😂

And @Army Eye for the site…it rocks!
ditto everything my Bud bother Bud said. My first time even coming close to making the finals. Tight ends are king in this contest and for me to even sniff the top 10 I need my small army of tight ends (I still have 4 left even after losing Hill like everybody else did) to REALLY perform.

I gave Joe permission to give my $100 extra to the charity of his choice and the helluva standup guy he is decided to add it to the food bank that the winner of the contest gets. Thanks again Joe for being who you are and providing this contest for your paying customers.
 
Ive read it discussed how unique a roster is and if a person even has a chance to win this at all based on uniqueness. Now that I am in the finals how does that work and is it too early to discuss it?
 
Ive read it discussed how unique a roster is and if a person even has a chance to win this at all based on uniqueness. Now that I am in the finals how does that work and is it too early to discuss it?
Every year we use the Subscriber Contest Analyzer tool to find out how unique our teams are. It's a fun exercise, but doesn't really mean much. Every team is unique somehow, because I have never come across 2 exact teams (has anyone else?). As far as specific players, logic says if you can make it to the finals with a high priced player that sucked for the first 14 weeks, then that player goes wild, it will be a huge advantage. CMC was almost like that this year. He started on 733 entries, and dwindled down to 6 by the time he took the field in week 10. He didn't do much and the final 6 teams were eliminated over the next few weeks. But if he had scored like we know CMC can, this team would be looking strong...
 
Ive read it discussed how unique a roster is and if a person even has a chance to win this at all based on uniqueness. Now that I am in the finals how does that work and is it too early to discuss it?
Every year we use the Subscriber Contest Analyzer tool to find out how unique our teams are. It's a fun exercise, but doesn't really mean much. Every team is unique somehow, because I have never come across 2 exact teams (has anyone else?). As far as specific players, logic says if you can make it to the finals with a high priced player that sucked for the first 14 weeks, then that player goes wild, it will be a huge advantage. CMC was almost like that this year. He started on 733 entries, and dwindled down to 6 by the time he took the field in week 10. He didn't do much and the final 6 teams were eliminated over the next few weeks. But if he had scored like we know CMC can, this team would be looking strong...
Piggybacking on this, uniqueness is only important if the player scores enough to count. For me, I'm one of 2 entries with Darnold and Jetta. Correlation indicates if Jetta has a good game, Darnold will as well. But with Goff and Nix also on my roster, there's a chance only Jetta counts for me so having a "unique" team with Darnold doesn't really matter because I'm not using that score. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the next 3 weeks (starting off with a nice 13.8 from Karty last night)!
 
Ive read it discussed how unique a roster is and if a person even has a chance to win this at all based on uniqueness. Now that I am in the finals how does that work and is it too early to discuss it?


Doesn’t matter in the least bit. Guys are always posting I’m only one of three teams left with <insert random stud player names here>. Everyone can say that. With 300 lotto balls in the pot and only 250 entries and each team selecting 18-30 lotto balls everyone is extremely unique.
 
@Army Eye What is determining the "cut line" for weeks 15-17? Just curious if there is some rhyme or reason for that number. Thanks!
There is no cut line. No more teams are being cut. Scores are cumulative now. The "cut line" on Tensionmask will now be the sum your scores from 15-17.
Yeah, I knew there wasn't a cut, but was concerned that my score matching that number meant I was the lowest score! Thanks for the info!
 
So after 1pm the Ghost Team is at 123.45 + (Caleb - 29.55) + (Javonte/Irving/Vidal - 0.00/5.10/14.90/17.40) + (Odunze/Jameson/Dortch/Tucker - 0.00/5.10/9.00/19.80) + (Bowers - 0.00/5.10/12.10) + (Bate - 15.60) + (Broncos/Packers/Chargers - 0.00)

Good luck to the teams really in the fight.
-QG
 
Not a winning score, but about the same average as my team has shown all year. 147.3 after late games.

Jacobs -3.9
Doubs -5.3
Geno -17.10
Falcons/Packers -5

Plenty room for more. I think my team settles around 165-170.

Some huge scores today, so I'm probably no where near the top.
 
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So after 1pm the Ghost Team is at 123.45 + (Caleb - 29.55) + (Javonte/Irving/Vidal - 0.00/5.10/14.90/17.40) + (Odunze/Jameson/Dortch/Tucker - 0.00/5.10/9.00/19.80) + (Bowers - 0.00/5.10/12.10) + (Bate - 15.60) + (Broncos/Packers/Chargers - 0.00)

Good luck to the teams really in the fight.
-QG

My ghost team was at 137.30 after the 1pm games. If not for missing week 12 by 4.55 points, I'd be in decent shape.

Looks like I'm sitting on 199.10 after the 4 pm games.

But make it to the playoffs or not, this is a fun contest.
 
Not a winning score, but about the same average as my team has shown all year. 147.3 after late games.

Jacobs -3.9
Doubs -5.3
Geno -17.10
Falcons/Packers -5

Plenty room for more. I think my team settles around 165-170.

Some huge scores today, so I'm probably no where near the top.
184.70

Well above my expectations.
 
170 pts for me with 4 playing today that can add to my score:

Darnold QB (anything above 6.95, likely)
Bowers TE (anything above 12.10, maybe)
Falcons D (anything above 5, maybe)
Reichard K (anything above 15.6…not likely)
 
I never tracked my team after it was eliminated in the past, but this website makes it so easy to do: https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/team/101690

I was eliminated in week 8 but never was below the cutline again. And this week I scored 255 :cry:

This is exactly why I never tracked after elimination before :lol:
REALLY NICE TEAM. You sure hit on one sure fire strategy. If you can go cheap at RB where the pts/$ is the worst value, you can crush at WR. Bad timing in injuries was your downfall.
 
So far (prior to the 8pm game), my ghost team is sitting on 190.90 so far this week and had 205.40 last week, for a total of 396.30, with Dowdle - 9.9 and Jalen McMillan -15.9 remaining to play.

Would love to crack 200 again this week but I need Dowdle to score 19 points for that to happen.
 
163 week 1 of the playoffs 165 this week. Ive looked through the rules and cant seem to find the prize for being extremely consistent yet mediocre to awful. Lil help? :biggrin:
 

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