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2024 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

Yeah ghost team is somewhere around 125th or so. Entry currently in first is .more than a little unorthodox btw...
-QG
Dell and Connor injuries could hurt them. Kupp is their most expensive player by a good margin and he's been useless the last two weeks.
 
Im curious how if at all dobbins coming back this week and scoring decent affects this contest if at all. I knowww his 14.8 looks good in my score but I am far too gone for it to matter.
 
Ghost team a two-man enterprise this week with Burrow and Higgins basically.
Anyway after today's games at
118.20 + (Ford/Dowdle/Irving - 0.00/1.00/2.40/2.50) + (Ridley/Jameson Williams/Tucker - 0.00/2.50/4.80/42.10) + (Kittle/Bowers - 0.00/0.00/2.50) + (Little/Bates - 9.30) + (Packers - 9.00)

Aggregate total so far 479.95 so mid-pack basically.

Good luck to those with a shot :)

-QG
 
Ghost team with a 2nd big week in a row going:

189.60 + (Ford - 4.80/10.90) + (Kittle - 4.80/10.90) + (Bates - 11.20) + (Packers - 9.00)

547.75 is the live total I have (with the above possible additions)

Good luck to those on the money train for real :excited:

-QG
 
I'm at 163.40 so far this week, with Kittle still to go -- giving me 530.15 for the 3-week playoff (plus Kittle).

Too bad I went out in week 13 by 2.5 points. So close <sigh>.
 
Yeah it was interesting as I was looking at it earlier:

3 qbs
4 kickers
4 defenses

But 26 players which after all the injuries this year is key

Do we know which staff member @Joe Bryant ?
What's interesting is they could have dumped one of the defenses, Ks, and Qb (not Burrow) and be right here with only spending $231.
But he didn't have any dead money. That's pretty impressive for a large roster.
 
Yeah it was interesting as I was looking at it earlier:

3 qbs
4 kickers
4 defenses

But 26 players which after all the injuries this year is key

Do we know which staff member @Joe Bryant ?
What's interesting is they could have dumped one of the defenses, Ks, and Qb (not Burrow) and be right here with only spending $231.
But he didn't have any dead money. That's pretty impressive for a large roster.
Definately.

The point I was trying to make that even if he "wins", having 3 QBs or 4 D/K as a strategy wasn't the reason why. Actually won in spite of it.
 
Ghost Entry moved up to mid-pack 112th place with a respectable showing this week... [Kittle - 6.3] and [Jameson - 11.3] still to go. Would be nice to crack the top 100 even if its only virtual. Feels like my roster was definitely on the right track this year, cards just didn't quite fall my way.
 
Yeah it was interesting as I was looking at it earlier:

3 qbs
4 kickers
4 defenses

But 26 players which after all the injuries this year is key

Do we know which staff member @Joe Bryant ?
What's interesting is they could have dumped one of the defenses, Ks, and Qb (not Burrow) and be right here with only spending $231.
But he didn't have any dead money. That's pretty impressive for a large roster.

Yes ultimately the key

…and I would say "lucky" instead of impressive…. 😁
 
Yeah it was interesting as I was looking at it earlier:

3 qbs
4 kickers
4 defenses

But 26 players which after all the injuries this year is key

Do we know which staff member @Joe Bryant ?
What's interesting is they could have dumped one of the defenses, Ks, and Qb (not Burrow) and be right here with only spending $231.
But he didn't have any dead money. That's pretty impressive for a large roster.

Yes ultimately the key

…and I would say "lucky" instead of impressive…. 😁
The guy has averaged 189 for 17 weeks. That's impressive! Hell, I only managed 189 or more 3 times.
 
Looks like I'm going to finish somewhere in the top 100 or so (sitting 60th before Monday night). Do have Goff (-33.55) and Jamo (-16.4) that could improve my score, but not enough to move up much, if at all.

Still my best finish ever and thankful for the entire staff for putting this on year after year!
 
Yeah it was interesting as I was looking at it earlier:

3 qbs
4 kickers
4 defenses

But 26 players which after all the injuries this year is key

Do we know which staff member @Joe Bryant ?
Also in the year of the tight end he DIDNT spend high on TEs. Bowers? sure...hill at 8 bucks made sese se. His only other te was 3 buck parkinson for a total og 25 bucks spent on tes
 
Yeah it was interesting as I was looking at it earlier:

3 qbs
4 kickers
4 defenses

But 26 players which after all the injuries this year is key

Do we know which staff member @Joe Bryant ?
What's interesting is they could have dumped one of the defenses, Ks, and Qb (not Burrow) and be right here with only spending $231.
But he didn't have any dead money. That's pretty impressive for a large roster.

Yes ultimately the key

…and I would say "lucky" instead of impressive…. 😁
The guy has averaged 189 for 17 weeks. That's impressive! Hell, I only managed 189 or more 3 times.
I meant that he had no dead money via .injuries.

You have to be lucky to avoid injuries… that was my only point. The lineup is awesome…and considering he has 4 Defenses and 4 kickers (typically not too many injuries) he did not carry a ton of rb’s, wr’s, te’s. A couple of season long injuries to his rb or wr picks and it would have would have derailed the team. But impressive lineup that definitely experienced some luck avoiding any season ending injuries which is what it takes to win this thing…unless you are part of the staff…… 😁
 
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Yeah it was interesting as I was looking at it earlier:

3 qbs
4 kickers
4 defenses

But 26 players which after all the injuries this year is key

Do we know which staff member @Joe Bryant ?
What's interesting is they could have dumped one of the defenses, Ks, and Qb (not Burrow) and be right here with only spending $231.
But he didn't have any dead money. That's pretty impressive for a large roster.

Yes ultimately the key

…and I would say "lucky" instead of impressive…. 😁
The guy has averaged 189 for 17 weeks. That's impressive! Hell, I only managed 189 or more 3 times.
I meant that he had no dead money via .injuries.

You have to be lucky to avoid injuries… that was my only point. The lineup is awesome…and considering he has 4 Defenses and 4 kickers (typically not too many injuries) he did not carry a ton of rb’s, wr’s, te’s. A couple of season long injuries to his rb or wr picks and it would have would have derailed the team. But impressive lineup that definitely experienced some luck avoiding any season ending injuries which is what it takes to win this thing…unless you are part of the staff…… 😁
He did a very good job of picking low cost breakout pl,ayers as well. I picked a couple but his team is a whos who of low cost breakout dudes
 
Yeah it was interesting as I was looking at it earlier:

3 qbs
4 kickers
4 defenses

But 26 players which after all the injuries this year is key

Do we know which staff member @Joe Bryant ?
What's interesting is they could have dumped one of the defenses, Ks, and Qb (not Burrow) and be right here with only spending $231.
But he didn't have any dead money. That's pretty impressive for a large roster.

Yes ultimately the key

…and I would say "lucky" instead of impressive…. 😁
The guy has averaged 189 for 17 weeks. That's impressive! Hell, I only managed 189 or more 3 times.
I meant that he had no dead money via .injuries.

You have to be lucky to avoid injuries… that was my only point. The lineup is awesome…and considering he has 4 Defenses and 4 kickers (typically not too many injuries) he did not carry a ton of rb’s, wr’s, te’s. A couple of season long injuries to his rb or wr picks and it would have would have derailed the team. But impressive lineup that definitely experienced some luck avoiding any season ending injuries which is what it takes to win this thing…unless you are part of the staff…… 😁
He did a very good job of picking low cost breakout pl,ayers as well. I picked a couple but his team is a whos who of low cost breakout dudes
I will definitely read more of his articles…but now know why I did not recognize him….he does a lot of the weekly player builds for fanduel etc which I don’t play. But he nailed it this year!


Impressive to do well in both
 
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Ghost rooster had what I think was the best week of the year this year. Would have finished with 584.05

With McCaffrey's $37 a complete and utter waste.

First woulda coulda shoulda thought would be what if I put Bijan in there and a Random $4. Ghost falls 0.15 short in the one cut week so discounting the $4 guy that takes that regret out...

But a strategy that is less predicated on top heavy would have had Achane in there at $21 and some $16 guy.

Will try and take a pseudo-honest look at realistic plays that I would have made instead of McCaffrey. Tough to be fair in a vacuum bc I probably radically change the rooster with the extra $37.

But that said it stings. It feels like my rooster actually was really close to what was needed but gambling on a player with nebulous injury status (and realizing SF totally LIED about where he really was at) is the biggest lesson.

Congrats to the winners!

-QG
 
Yeah it was interesting as I was looking at it earlier:

3 qbs
4 kickers
4 defenses

But 26 players which after all the injuries this year is key

Do we know which staff member @Joe Bryant ?
What's interesting is they could have dumped one of the defenses, Ks, and Qb (not Burrow) and be right here with only spending $231.
But he didn't have any dead money. That's pretty impressive for a large roster.

Yes ultimately the key

…and I would say "lucky" instead of impressive…. 😁
The guy has averaged 189 for 17 weeks. That's impressive! Hell, I only managed 189 or more 3 times.
I meant that he had no dead money via .injuries.

You have to be lucky to avoid injuries… that was my only point. The lineup is awesome…and considering he has 4 Defenses and 4 kickers (typically not too many injuries) he did not carry a ton of rb’s, wr’s, te’s. A couple of season long injuries to his rb or wr picks and it would have would have derailed the team. But impressive lineup that definitely experienced some luck avoiding any season ending injuries which is what it takes to win this thing…unless you are part of the staff…… 😁
He did a very good job of picking low cost breakout pl,ayers as well. I picked a couple but his team is a whos who of low cost breakout dudes

Yep, he did an amazing job picking the breakouts.

But there's one big one he didn't take. He faded Rashee Rice. A bad move that turned out to be a great move!
 
Ghost rooster had what I think was the best week of the year this year. Would have finished with 584.05

With McCaffrey's $37 a complete and utter waste.

First woulda coulda shoulda thought would be what if I put Bijan in there and a Random $4. Ghost falls 0.15 short in the one cut week so discounting the $4 guy that takes that regret out...

But a strategy that is less predicated on top heavy would have had Achane in there at $21 and some $16 guy.

Will try and take a pseudo-honest look at realistic plays that I would have made instead of McCaffrey. Tough to be fair in a vacuum bc I probably radically change the rooster with the extra $37.

But that said it stings. It feels like my rooster actually was really close to what was needed but gambling on a player with nebulous injury status (and realizing SF totally LIED about where he really was at) is the biggest lesson.

Congrats to the winners!

-QG
584 doesn't make the cash prizes. That mark was 617 before tonight. Maybe that lessens the sting.
 
Ghost rooster had what I think was the best week of the year this year. Would have finished with 584.05

With McCaffrey's $37 a complete and utter waste.

First woulda coulda shoulda thought would be what if I put Bijan in there and a Random $4. Ghost falls 0.15 short in the one cut week so discounting the $4 guy that takes that regret out...

But a strategy that is less predicated on top heavy would have had Achane in there at $21 and some $16 guy.

Will try and take a pseudo-honest look at realistic plays that I would have made instead of McCaffrey. Tough to be fair in a vacuum bc I probably radically change the rooster with the extra $37.

But that said it stings. It feels like my rooster actually was really close to what was needed but gambling on a player with nebulous injury status (and realizing SF totally LIED about where he really was at) is the biggest lesson.

Congrats to the winners!

-QG

The same thing happened last year with Cooper Kupp. I wasn't buying the preseason BS last year that he would be ready to go by week 1. Same thing with McCaffrey this year, plus add the fact that he had a huge cap number, which made it an even more ridiculous gamble.

I almost never pick from the top of the column at any position in this contest because injuries are so numerous in today's NFL that you are betting against reality if you do. Winning this contest is as much about luck picking players who manage to stay healthy, as it is picking the best players. Having a roster stacked with studs might feel good but it's a loser when you consider the likelihood that several are likely to go down with injuries, and you didn't have enough cap space left to fill the holes when that invariably happens.

Larger rosters always go much deeper overall in this contest, and the data in hindsight always confirms it. It's possible to make the playoffs with a small roster, but the odds are against it by probably a 3-to-1 margin, or more. I did it back in 2011 with an 18-player roster that made the playoffs and finished this contest in 4th place overall. But I would be a liar if I claimed that luck in picking players who managed to stay healthy was not a big part of it.

This year, the roster size with the highest survival rate through 14 weeks was roster size 28, with a survival rate of 22.22%. The roster size with the lowest survival rate was roster size 18, at 4.18%. All things considered, generally your odds of making the playoffs are much better with a larger roster. No roster size lower than 24 players finished in the top 7 places percentage-wise in terms of survival rate. Roster sizes 18 to 23 ALL had lower survival rates than every roster size from 24 to 30. So it's not a hit and miss situation, but rather a solid statistic and a highly reliable probability. And it's like that every year with very few exceptions.

Part of why we all love this contest so much is there are so many variables, and it's that fact which makes it such a daunting challenge to come up with a successful lineup that manages to survive the first 14 weeks and make the playoffs.

Let me echo everyone else's congratulations to the actual winners in the contest❗

I'll see you all in the post season contest.
 
Ghost rooster had what I think was the best week of the year this year. Would have finished with 584.05

With McCaffrey's $37 a complete and utter waste.

First woulda coulda shoulda thought would be what if I put Bijan in there and a Random $4. Ghost falls 0.15 short in the one cut week so discounting the $4 guy that takes that regret out...

But a strategy that is less predicated on top heavy would have had Achane in there at $21 and some $16 guy.

Will try and take a pseudo-honest look at realistic plays that I would have made instead of McCaffrey. Tough to be fair in a vacuum bc I probably radically change the rooster with the extra $37.

But that said it stings. It feels like my rooster actually was really close to what was needed but gambling on a player with nebulous injury status (and realizing SF totally LIED about where he really was at) is the biggest lesson.

Congrats to the winners!

-QG

The same thing happened last year with Cooper Kupp. I wasn't buying the preseason BS last year that he would be ready to go by week 1. Same thing with McCaffrey this year, plus add the fact that he had a huge cap number, which made it an even more ridiculous gamble.

I almost never pick from the top of the column at any position in this contest because injuries are so numerous in today's NFL that you are betting against reality if you do. Winning this contest is as much about luck picking players who manage to stay healthy, as it is picking the best players. Having a roster stacked with studs might feel good but it's a loser when you consider the likelihood that several are likely to go down with injuries, and you didn't have enough cap space left to fill the holes when that invariably happens.

Larger rosters always go much deeper overall in this contest, and the data in hindsight always confirms it. It's possible to make the playoffs with a small roster, but the odds are against it by probably a 3-to-1 margin, or more. I did it back in 2011 with an 18-player roster that made the playoffs and finished this contest in 4th place overall. But I would be a liar if I claimed that luck in picking players who managed to stay healthy was not a big part of it.

This year, the roster size with the highest survival rate through 14 weeks was roster size 28, with a survival rate of 22.22%. The roster size with the lowest survival rate was roster size 18, at 4.18%. All things considered, generally your odds of making the playoffs are much better with a larger roster. No roster size lower than 24 players finished in the top 7 places percentage-wise in terms of survival rate. Roster sizes 18 to 23 ALL had lower survival rates than every roster size from 24 to 30. So it's not a hit and miss situation, but rather a solid statistic and a highly reliable probability. And it's like that every year with very few exceptions.

Part of why we all love this contest so much is there are so many variables, and it's that fact which makes it such a daunting challenge to come up with a successful lineup that manages to survive the first 14 weeks and make the playoffs.

Let me echo everyone else's congratulations to the actual winners in the contest❗

I'll see you all in the post season contest.

Awesome info puppies…I had 25 players and I think 6 were out here at the end so more players "usually" helps!

Ended up Finishing #31 with 605.40.

Got a free subscription…which I think takes me out to like 2035….lol (I did pretty well in the FFPC / footballguy’s content over the years so won a "few" subscriptions)

Tons of fun as always….till next year!!!!

Happy New Year ALL!
 
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Ghost rooster had what I think was the best week of the year this year. Would have finished with 584.05

With McCaffrey's $37 a complete and utter waste.

First woulda coulda shoulda thought would be what if I put Bijan in there and a Random $4. Ghost falls 0.15 short in the one cut week so discounting the $4 guy that takes that regret out...

But a strategy that is less predicated on top heavy would have had Achane in there at $21 and some $16 guy.

Will try and take a pseudo-honest look at realistic plays that I would have made instead of McCaffrey. Tough to be fair in a vacuum bc I probably radically change the rooster with the extra $37.

But that said it stings. It feels like my rooster actually was really close to what was needed but gambling on a player with nebulous injury status (and realizing SF totally LIED about where he really was at) is the biggest lesson.

Congrats to the winners!

-QG

The same thing happened last year with Cooper Kupp. I wasn't buying the preseason BS last year that he would be ready to go by week 1. Same thing with McCaffrey this year, plus add the fact that he had a huge cap number, which made it an even more ridiculous gamble.

I almost never pick from the top of the column at any position in this contest because injuries are so numerous in today's NFL that you are betting against reality if you do. Winning this contest is as much about luck picking players who manage to stay healthy, as it is picking the best players. Having a roster stacked with studs might feel good but it's a loser when you consider the likelihood that several are likely to go down with injuries, and you didn't have enough cap space left to fill the holes when that invariably happens.

Larger rosters always go much deeper overall in this contest, and the data in hindsight always confirms it. It's possible to make the playoffs with a small roster, but the odds are against it by probably a 3-to-1 margin, or more. I did it back in 2011 with an 18-player roster that made the playoffs and finished this contest in 4th place overall. But I would be a liar if I claimed that luck in picking players who managed to stay healthy was not a big part of it.

This year, the roster size with the highest survival rate through 14 weeks was roster size 28, with a survival rate of 22.22%. The roster size with the lowest survival rate was roster size 18, at 4.18%. All things considered, generally your odds of making the playoffs are much better with a larger roster. No roster size lower than 24 players finished in the top 7 places percentage-wise in terms of survival rate. Roster sizes 18 to 23 ALL had lower survival rates than every roster size from 24 to 30. So it's not a hit and miss situation, but rather a solid statistic and a highly reliable probability. And it's like that every year with very few exceptions.

Part of why we all love this contest so much is there are so many variables, and it's that fact which makes it such a daunting challenge to come up with a successful lineup that manages to survive the first 14 weeks and make the playoffs.

Let me echo everyone else's congratulations to the actual winners in the contest❗

I'll see you all in the post season contest.
Great info puppies!! I had a 21 man roster including 3 QB, 3 K and 3 Def leaving only 12 total RB, WR and TE. My team peaked at the right time, after not scoring over 187 points in any of the first 14 weeks (and scoring only 119 points in week 10 with a cut line of 117.85) I scored 183.5, 212.1 and 249.55 in the finals which was good enough for 4th place.

Thanks for a great contest Joe!!
 
Wow! Just missed first, but thrilled with 2nd, what a ride! Thanks Joe, tons of fun this year.

Awesome and Congrats!!!
Yes,
As I indicated above, it’s possible to win with a short roster (I did it in 2011) but the odds are stacked against it. One or two injuries are usually enough to eliminate a small roster. But if you have a crystal ball, it’s probably the way to go.
 
Small rooster winning isn't a surprise given the relative volume of them. If the other rooster sizes were used at the same rate I doubt you see a big rooster ever win. More bullets in the chamber as it were.

-QG
 
When will the playoff contest be up and running? I know the entire field isn't solidified yet but, in general...
The thread is already created, just waiting for the contest to open.

 
Ghost rooster had what I think was the best week of the year this year. Would have finished with 584.05

With McCaffrey's $37 a complete and utter waste.

First woulda coulda shoulda thought would be what if I put Bijan in there and a Random $4. Ghost falls 0.15 short in the one cut week so discounting the $4 guy that takes that regret out...

But a strategy that is less predicated on top heavy would have had Achane in there at $21 and some $16 guy.

Will try and take a pseudo-honest look at realistic plays that I would have made instead of McCaffrey. Tough to be fair in a vacuum bc I probably radically change the rooster with the extra $37.

But that said it stings. It feels like my rooster actually was really close to what was needed but gambling on a player with nebulous injury status (and realizing SF totally LIED about where he really was at) is the biggest lesson.

Congrats to the winners!

-QG
My hope is that he's heavily discounted next year and comes back to put up monster numbers again.
 

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