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2024 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

Ghost rooster had what I think was the best week of the year this year. Would have finished with 584.05

With McCaffrey's $37 a complete and utter waste.

First woulda coulda shoulda thought would be what if I put Bijan in there and a Random $4. Ghost falls 0.15 short in the one cut week so discounting the $4 guy that takes that regret out...

But a strategy that is less predicated on top heavy would have had Achane in there at $21 and some $16 guy.

Will try and take a pseudo-honest look at realistic plays that I would have made instead of McCaffrey. Tough to be fair in a vacuum bc I probably radically change the rooster with the extra $37.

But that said it stings. It feels like my rooster actually was really close to what was needed but gambling on a player with nebulous injury status (and realizing SF totally LIED about where he really was at) is the biggest lesson.

Congrats to the winners!

-QG

The same thing happened last year with Cooper Kupp. I wasn't buying the preseason BS last year that he would be ready to go by week 1. Same thing with McCaffrey this year, plus add the fact that he had a huge cap number, which made it an even more ridiculous gamble.

I almost never pick from the top of the column at any position in this contest because injuries are so numerous in today's NFL that you are betting against reality if you do. Winning this contest is as much about luck picking players who manage to stay healthy, as it is picking the best players. Having a roster stacked with studs might feel good but it's a loser when you consider the likelihood that several are likely to go down with injuries, and you didn't have enough cap space left to fill the holes when that invariably happens.

Larger rosters always go much deeper overall in this contest, and the data in hindsight always confirms it. It's possible to make the playoffs with a small roster, but the odds are against it by probably a 3-to-1 margin, or more. I did it back in 2011 with an 18-player roster that made the playoffs and finished this contest in 4th place overall. But I would be a liar if I claimed that luck in picking players who managed to stay healthy was not a big part of it.

This year, the roster size with the highest survival rate through 14 weeks was roster size 28, with a survival rate of 22.22%. The roster size with the lowest survival rate was roster size 18, at 4.18%. All things considered, generally your odds of making the playoffs are much better with a larger roster. No roster size lower than 24 players finished in the top 7 places percentage-wise in terms of survival rate. Roster sizes 18 to 23 ALL had lower survival rates than every roster size from 24 to 30. So it's not a hit and miss situation, but rather a solid statistic and a highly reliable probability. And it's like that every year with very few exceptions.

Part of why we all love this contest so much is there are so many variables, and it's that fact which makes it such a daunting challenge to come up with a successful lineup that manages to survive the first 14 weeks and make the playoffs.

Let me echo everyone else's congratulations to the actual winners in the contest❗

I'll see you all in the post season contest.

Interesting data about the survival rates, but all I really care about is finishing top 3, not gonna get too excited about "making the finals" but not finishing near the top... do we have multiple recent years data to look at the typical roster sizes of the actual contest winners?
 
Ghost rooster had what I think was the best week of the year this year. Would have finished with 584.05

With McCaffrey's $37 a complete and utter waste.

First woulda coulda shoulda thought would be what if I put Bijan in there and a Random $4. Ghost falls 0.15 short in the one cut week so discounting the $4 guy that takes that regret out...

But a strategy that is less predicated on top heavy would have had Achane in there at $21 and some $16 guy.

Will try and take a pseudo-honest look at realistic plays that I would have made instead of McCaffrey. Tough to be fair in a vacuum bc I probably radically change the rooster with the extra $37.

But that said it stings. It feels like my rooster actually was really close to what was needed but gambling on a player with nebulous injury status (and realizing SF totally LIED about where he really was at) is the biggest lesson.

Congrats to the winners!

-QG

The same thing happened last year with Cooper Kupp. I wasn't buying the preseason BS last year that he would be ready to go by week 1. Same thing with McCaffrey this year, plus add the fact that he had a huge cap number, which made it an even more ridiculous gamble.

I almost never pick from the top of the column at any position in this contest because injuries are so numerous in today's NFL that you are betting against reality if you do. Winning this contest is as much about luck picking players who manage to stay healthy, as it is picking the best players. Having a roster stacked with studs might feel good but it's a loser when you consider the likelihood that several are likely to go down with injuries, and you didn't have enough cap space left to fill the holes when that invariably happens.

Larger rosters always go much deeper overall in this contest, and the data in hindsight always confirms it. It's possible to make the playoffs with a small roster, but the odds are against it by probably a 3-to-1 margin, or more. I did it back in 2011 with an 18-player roster that made the playoffs and finished this contest in 4th place overall. But I would be a liar if I claimed that luck in picking players who managed to stay healthy was not a big part of it.

This year, the roster size with the highest survival rate through 14 weeks was roster size 28, with a survival rate of 22.22%. The roster size with the lowest survival rate was roster size 18, at 4.18%. All things considered, generally your odds of making the playoffs are much better with a larger roster. No roster size lower than 24 players finished in the top 7 places percentage-wise in terms of survival rate. Roster sizes 18 to 23 ALL had lower survival rates than every roster size from 24 to 30. So it's not a hit and miss situation, but rather a solid statistic and a highly reliable probability. And it's like that every year with very few exceptions.

Part of why we all love this contest so much is there are so many variables, and it's that fact which makes it such a daunting challenge to come up with a successful lineup that manages to survive the first 14 weeks and make the playoffs.

Let me echo everyone else's congratulations to the actual winners in the contest❗

I'll see you all in the post season contest.

Interesting data about the survival rates, but all I really care about is finishing top 3, not gonna get too excited about "making the finals" but not finishing near the top... do we have multiple recent years data to look at the typical roster sizes of the actual contest winners?
Yes, but they are skewed by the fact that we have 10x samll roosters to start.
 
Ghost rooster had what I think was the best week of the year this year. Would have finished with 584.05

With McCaffrey's $37 a complete and utter waste.

First woulda coulda shoulda thought would be what if I put Bijan in there and a Random $4. Ghost falls 0.15 short in the one cut week so discounting the $4 guy that takes that regret out...

But a strategy that is less predicated on top heavy would have had Achane in there at $21 and some $16 guy.

Will try and take a pseudo-honest look at realistic plays that I would have made instead of McCaffrey. Tough to be fair in a vacuum bc I probably radically change the rooster with the extra $37.

But that said it stings. It feels like my rooster actually was really close to what was needed but gambling on a player with nebulous injury status (and realizing SF totally LIED about where he really was at) is the biggest lesson.

Congrats to the winners!

-QG
My hope is that he's heavily discounted next year and comes back to put up monster numbers again.
RBBC hell.
 

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