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2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter apalmer
- Start date
firstseason1988
Footballguy
Sitting a #1 in the standings, been getting really lucky, basically all season, some guys gave some big weeks for me, stayed above cut line each week pretty good except week 14 when I made the cut by like a 1.5 points. When my guys were injured, others had good weeks to pick up the slack. Was close to not having a QB in week 14 but Derek Carr was able to get out of concussion protocol to put up 19 points to get me to finals. Carr has performed well for me in the finals so far. I have a 13 point lead over 2nd place and 42 point lead over 8th which is just outside the money places. Finishing in top 7 looks like good shot. Winning is going to take a lot more luck. Second place team has more players getting points than I do. I am thin at WR with I think only 3 with the ability to put up decent numbers. My kickers and defenses have helped my cause. Had $14 of dead money when Aaron Rodgers went down in the 1st minutes of the season. I have some tough matchups this week. I have gotten extremely lucky to be at this point and need my luck to continue to win it. I have a big stack and a chair which is nice.... good luck to everyone else still in the contest.... giddy up...
Puppies
Footballguy
Good luck in the final week! I'm rooting for you and for dbc925! Would love to see someone from this forum win it allSitting a #1 in the standings, been getting really lucky, basically all season, some guys gave some big weeks for me, stayed above cut line each week pretty good except week 14 when I made the cut by like a 1.5 points. When my guys were injured, others had good weeks to pick up the slack. Was close to not having a QB in week 14 but Derek Carr was able to get out of concussion protocol to put up 19 points to get me to finals. Carr has performed well for me in the finals so far. I have a 13 point lead over 2nd place and 42 point lead over 8th which is just outside the money places. Finishing in top 7 looks like good shot. Winning is going to take a lot more luck. Second place team has more players getting points than I do. I am thin at WR with I think only 3 with the ability to put up decent numbers. My kickers and defenses have helped my cause. Had $14 of dead money when Aaron Rodgers went down in the 1st minutes of the season. I have some tough matchups this week. I have gotten extremely lucky to be at this point and need my luck to continue to win it. I have a big stack and a chair which is nice.... good luck to everyone else still in the contest.... giddy up...
firstseason1988
Footballguy
Just saw Sam Howell has been benched. Down to Derek Carr again. He's been showing up for me when I've needed him this season. I need one more from him. Who dat?!!!!!Good luck in the final week! I'm rooting for you and for dbc925! Would love to see someone from this forum win it allSitting a #1 in the standings, been getting really lucky, basically all season, some guys gave some big weeks for me, stayed above cut line each week pretty good except week 14 when I made the cut by like a 1.5 points. When my guys were injured, others had good weeks to pick up the slack. Was close to not having a QB in week 14 but Derek Carr was able to get out of concussion protocol to put up 19 points to get me to finals. Carr has performed well for me in the finals so far. I have a 13 point lead over 2nd place and 42 point lead over 8th which is just outside the money places. Finishing in top 7 looks like good shot. Winning is going to take a lot more luck. Second place team has more players getting points than I do. I am thin at WR with I think only 3 with the ability to put up decent numbers. My kickers and defenses have helped my cause. Had $14 of dead money when Aaron Rodgers went down in the 1st minutes of the season. I have some tough matchups this week. I have gotten extremely lucky to be at this point and need my luck to continue to win it. I have a big stack and a chair which is nice.... good luck to everyone else still in the contest.... giddy up...
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Good luck. I think you have a pretty good chance. When I pursue the guys in the money spots below you, you have alot of the players covered. Interesting that the current top 2 have four QBs. How did the 4 D and K work out for you this year. Was number 4 a noticeable bump or pretty much covered by the other three?Just saw Sam Howell has been benched. Down to Derek Carr again. He's been showing up for me when I've needed him this season. I need one more from him. Who dat?!!!!!Good luck in the final week! I'm rooting for you and for dbc925! Would love to see someone from this forum win it allSitting a #1 in the standings, been getting really lucky, basically all season, some guys gave some big weeks for me, stayed above cut line each week pretty good except week 14 when I made the cut by like a 1.5 points. When my guys were injured, others had good weeks to pick up the slack. Was close to not having a QB in week 14 but Derek Carr was able to get out of concussion protocol to put up 19 points to get me to finals. Carr has performed well for me in the finals so far. I have a 13 point lead over 2nd place and 42 point lead over 8th which is just outside the money places. Finishing in top 7 looks like good shot. Winning is going to take a lot more luck. Second place team has more players getting points than I do. I am thin at WR with I think only 3 with the ability to put up decent numbers. My kickers and defenses have helped my cause. Had $14 of dead money when Aaron Rodgers went down in the 1st minutes of the season. I have some tough matchups this week. I have gotten extremely lucky to be at this point and need my luck to continue to win it. I have a big stack and a chair which is nice.... good luck to everyone else still in the contest.... giddy up...
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Good luck. I think you have a pretty good chance. When I pursue the guys in the money spots below you, you have alot of the players covered. Interesting that the current top 2 have four QBs. How did the 4 D and K work out for you this year. Was number 4 a noticeable bump or pretty much covered by the other three?Just saw Sam Howell has been benched. Down to Derek Carr again. He's been showing up for me when I've needed him this season. I need one more from him. Who dat?!!!!!Good luck in the final week! I'm rooting for you and for dbc925! Would love to see someone from this forum win it allSitting a #1 in the standings, been getting really lucky, basically all season, some guys gave some big weeks for me, stayed above cut line each week pretty good except week 14 when I made the cut by like a 1.5 points. When my guys were injured, others had good weeks to pick up the slack. Was close to not having a QB in week 14 but Derek Carr was able to get out of concussion protocol to put up 19 points to get me to finals. Carr has performed well for me in the finals so far. I have a 13 point lead over 2nd place and 42 point lead over 8th which is just outside the money places. Finishing in top 7 looks like good shot. Winning is going to take a lot more luck. Second place team has more players getting points than I do. I am thin at WR with I think only 3 with the ability to put up decent numbers. My kickers and defenses have helped my cause. Had $14 of dead money when Aaron Rodgers went down in the 1st minutes of the season. I have some tough matchups this week. I have gotten extremely lucky to be at this point and need my luck to continue to win it. I have a big stack and a chair which is nice.... good luck to everyone else still in the contest.... giddy up...
Derek Carr also wears #4
-QG
firstseason1988
Footballguy
I really liked it, seems like the trend of injuries is getting worse and worse which is why I did it the way I did it. 4 cheap defenses really came through, almost every week at least one performed. Same thing with the kickers, tried to get 4 cheap kickers that wouldn't lose their job and have been consistent over time and Dicker because I went to Texas. 4 Qbs served me well since Rodgers went down early. I hit on a lot of cheap guys. Keontay Ingram at $6 was poor choice but he counted once or twice for me. I really need Derek Carr to hit, I have good RBs, I need my WRs to perform, I think I only have 3. Waller doing something would be great but have 4 TEs I think. I could easily only score 100 and be out of the money. Another 200 point week and I like my chances at the top.... Carr to J Johnson for 3 Tds would help the cause....Good luck. I think you have a pretty good chance. When I pursue the guys in the money spots below you, you have alot of the players covered. Interesting that the current top 2 have four QBs. How did the 4 D and K work out for you this year. Was number 4 a noticeable bump or pretty much covered by the other three?Just saw Sam Howell has been benched. Down to Derek Carr again. He's been showing up for me when I've needed him this season. I need one more from him. Who dat?!!!!!Good luck in the final week! I'm rooting for you and for dbc925! Would love to see someone from this forum win it allSitting a #1 in the standings, been getting really lucky, basically all season, some guys gave some big weeks for me, stayed above cut line each week pretty good except week 14 when I made the cut by like a 1.5 points. When my guys were injured, others had good weeks to pick up the slack. Was close to not having a QB in week 14 but Derek Carr was able to get out of concussion protocol to put up 19 points to get me to finals. Carr has performed well for me in the finals so far. I have a 13 point lead over 2nd place and 42 point lead over 8th which is just outside the money places. Finishing in top 7 looks like good shot. Winning is going to take a lot more luck. Second place team has more players getting points than I do. I am thin at WR with I think only 3 with the ability to put up decent numbers. My kickers and defenses have helped my cause. Had $14 of dead money when Aaron Rodgers went down in the 1st minutes of the season. I have some tough matchups this week. I have gotten extremely lucky to be at this point and need my luck to continue to win it. I have a big stack and a chair which is nice.... good luck to everyone else still in the contest.... giddy up...
firstseason1988
Footballguy
Decent numbers from Conklin and Greg the leg. Up to a 17.95 point lead. 15 games to go.... really really need Derek Carr to come through for me again.... he is X factor on paper, will probably be another player to make ultimate difference.... been saying all along that I don't expect to win this thing, sticking with that. Good luck to everyone...
Stray Doug
Footballguy
If my math is right, the 24 yard completion to Pickens with under 2 mins to go allowed the 2nd place team to narrow the gap to CosmoKramer (firstseason1988) to a mere 0.15 points... but looks like that's all she wrote. Good thing the final few handoffs after were all Najee and not Warren as he had Warren going as well!
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Stray Doug
Footballguy
Looking like you'll get your wish... obviously need to wait until official standings and stat changes come out, but it appears that firstseason1988 eked it out! That last Dicker FG puts him almost 3 points clear. Congrats (I hope)!Good luck in the final week! I'm rooting for you and for dbc925! Would love to see someone from this forum win it allSitting a #1 in the standings, been getting really lucky, basically all season, some guys gave some big weeks for me, stayed above cut line each week pretty good except week 14 when I made the cut by like a 1.5 points. When my guys were injured, others had good weeks to pick up the slack. Was close to not having a QB in week 14 but Derek Carr was able to get out of concussion protocol to put up 19 points to get me to finals. Carr has performed well for me in the finals so far. I have a 13 point lead over 2nd place and 42 point lead over 8th which is just outside the money places. Finishing in top 7 looks like good shot. Winning is going to take a lot more luck. Second place team has more players getting points than I do. I am thin at WR with I think only 3 with the ability to put up decent numbers. My kickers and defenses have helped my cause. Had $14 of dead money when Aaron Rodgers went down in the 1st minutes of the season. I have some tough matchups this week. I have gotten extremely lucky to be at this point and need my luck to continue to win it. I have a big stack and a chair which is nice.... good luck to everyone else still in the contest.... giddy up...
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Wait... umm... there's still a whole game to be played (GB v MIN)... how did I overlook that? I was thinking no MNF this week but mentally lumped in SNF along with it. Will check to see who might still be able to make a difference...
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Stray Doug
Footballguy
Second place team has Jordan Love minus 23.9 (Purdy). Both have Chandler but firstseason1988 has him minus 11.1 (McCaffrey) whereas second place has him minus 17.8 (Warren)... so firstseason1988 could get an advantage of up to 6.7 additional points from Chandler if he scores 17.8 or more tonight in addition to his 2.95 point lead going in. If that happens, Love would need 33.55 to tie, 33.6 for the win for the second place team. For reference, Love's last 7 weekly scores have been 25.55, 28.1, 35.3, 32.35, 16.1, 26.3, and finally 30.15 last week, so this is shaping up to be real nailbiter.
3rd place team is done and not a threat.
4th place team (GoGmen) has had a big week and technically still has Jordan Love, but minus 49.55 (Lamar) seems unlikely to move his score. Also has Addison minus 13.4, but is nearly 30 points back so would need a monster 43+ point game from him (and for Love and Chandler to not count for the top two teams)... so a verrrrry slim outside chance at the win.
5th place team has the most players going amongst top teams with Chandler minus 9.6, Doubs minus 9.3, and Carlson minus 15.4. At 32 points back, they also have a slim shot at it, mainly if Doubs has a huge game (because nobody ahead of him also has Doubs). He can only gain 1.5 points on the leader from Chandler, and if Doubs has a huge game then Carlson is most likely not topping 15.4 (e.g. assume Doubs scores 2 TDs and Carlson adds three 45 yard FGs as well, he only moves his score by 0.1 in that case).
Finally, gotta acknowledge Rooster 104985 in 12th place, one of 3 teams in the finals who managed to carry Justin Jefferson with them. He's got Jefferson minus 8.6, but at 50 points back is not a realistic threat. Also the highest-performing 18-man roster. Highest 19-man roster is in 6th place currently.
3rd place team is done and not a threat.
4th place team (GoGmen) has had a big week and technically still has Jordan Love, but minus 49.55 (Lamar) seems unlikely to move his score. Also has Addison minus 13.4, but is nearly 30 points back so would need a monster 43+ point game from him (and for Love and Chandler to not count for the top two teams)... so a verrrrry slim outside chance at the win.
5th place team has the most players going amongst top teams with Chandler minus 9.6, Doubs minus 9.3, and Carlson minus 15.4. At 32 points back, they also have a slim shot at it, mainly if Doubs has a huge game (because nobody ahead of him also has Doubs). He can only gain 1.5 points on the leader from Chandler, and if Doubs has a huge game then Carlson is most likely not topping 15.4 (e.g. assume Doubs scores 2 TDs and Carlson adds three 45 yard FGs as well, he only moves his score by 0.1 in that case).
Finally, gotta acknowledge Rooster 104985 in 12th place, one of 3 teams in the finals who managed to carry Justin Jefferson with them. He's got Jefferson minus 8.6, but at 50 points back is not a realistic threat. Also the highest-performing 18-man roster. Highest 19-man roster is in 6th place currently.
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firstseason1988
Footballguy
Not sure all afternoon games have updated, I think I only have Chandler tonight ( -11.1), 2nd place guy is 3 points down with Love tonight ( -23.9) and Chandler (-17.8), 3rd place is done I think, 4th place has Love and Musgrave at -49 and -13.4 but down 29 points to me, 5th place is down 33 has Doubs, Chandler -9.3, and Musgrave flex is -9.6. everyone else in top 20 needs a huge game from Love and/or Doubs and still probably are out. Top 3 is looking pretty good. I don't expect to win this thing.....
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Just saw Sam Howell has been benched. Down to Derek Carr again. He's been showing up for me when I've needed him this season. I need one more from him. Who dat?!!!!!Good luck in the final week! I'm rooting for you and for dbc925! Would love to see someone from this forum win it allSitting a #1 in the standings, been getting really lucky, basically all season, some guys gave some big weeks for me, stayed above cut line each week pretty good except week 14 when I made the cut by like a 1.5 points. When my guys were injured, others had good weeks to pick up the slack. Was close to not having a QB in week 14 but Derek Carr was able to get out of concussion protocol to put up 19 points to get me to finals. Carr has performed well for me in the finals so far. I have a 13 point lead over 2nd place and 42 point lead over 8th which is just outside the money places. Finishing in top 7 looks like good shot. Winning is going to take a lot more luck. Second place team has more players getting points than I do. I am thin at WR with I think only 3 with the ability to put up decent numbers. My kickers and defenses have helped my cause. Had $14 of dead money when Aaron Rodgers went down in the 1st minutes of the season. I have some tough matchups this week. I have gotten extremely lucky to be at this point and need my luck to continue to win it. I have a big stack and a chair which is nice.... good luck to everyone else still in the contest.... giddy up...
Carr put up respectable but not flashy numbers today... but Juwan Johnson picked a heck of a time to have by far his best game of the season for you!
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Musgrave is sitting out tonight.Not sure all afternoon games have updated, I think I only have Chandler tonight ( -11.1), 2nd place guy is 3 points down with Love tonight ( -23.9) and Chandler (-17.8), 3rd place is done I think, 4th place has Love and Musgrave at -49 and -13.4 but down 29 points to me, 5th place is down 33 has Doubs, Chandler -9.3, and Musgrave flex is -9.6. everyone else in top 20 needs a huge game from Love and/or Doubs and still probably are out. Top 3 is looking pretty good. I don't expect to win this thing.....
firstseason1988
Footballguy
Yeah, I need Love to score less than 26.85. Hopefully one of us hits. It means difference of $5000, for me as far as I can tell.... At halftime, you are looking good...
hoping the math above is off and fs1988 is in better shape than is apparently the case
Puppies
Footballguy
Sadly, I think Jordan Love just did him in, unless Chandler puts up about 10 more points...
And Love is continuing to add to his points...
Puppies
Footballguy
Love is sitting on about 35 points already, with about a quarter still to go. That should shoot you up the stanging...
UPDATE: Based on a quick look at the other contenders, I think you're going to finish 6th based on what I see after the Green Bay game.
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Stray Doug
Footballguy
Looks like 8 of the top 10 had Jordan Love (all but 2nd and 4th). Here's how I have the final standings (obviously not official):
623.75 Rooster #103787
613.60 CosmoKramer
604.05 UFFLCommish
594.45 Feller
587.15 Emeraldfenix
586.75 War Eagle Hey
586.60 Rooster #101669
584.50 GoGmen
583.05 Rooster #102555
581.75 WFDEMONDEACS
The 3rd place team had the most dead money... including both Aaron Rodgers and Mike Williams. Impressive to overcome $31 in dead money for basically the whole season (plus Tank Dell's $3 later on). I also counted an additional $43 of short-term injured players in the playoffs.
623.75 Rooster #103787
613.60 CosmoKramer
604.05 UFFLCommish
594.45 Feller
587.15 Emeraldfenix
586.75 War Eagle Hey
586.60 Rooster #101669
584.50 GoGmen
583.05 Rooster #102555
581.75 WFDEMONDEACS
The 3rd place team had the most dead money... including both Aaron Rodgers and Mike Williams. Impressive to overcome $31 in dead money for basically the whole season (plus Tank Dell's $3 later on). I also counted an additional $43 of short-term injured players in the playoffs.
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UFFLCommish
Footballguy
Can't believe I was able to finish in 3rd place after losing my highest salary QB (A. Rodgers) and WR (M. Williams) early in the season. Takes the sting off losing some close matchups last week and one this week. Congrats to all the winners.
firstseason1988
Footballguy
Finished 2nd, kinda glad it wasn't too too close of a score. Missed by 10 points. If I had the wisdom to have Jordan Love instead of deadweight Aaron Rodgers on my team I would have won, I think I might have had Love on my team in an iteration, don't remember for sure. I had some incredible luck and it came down really to the very end of the contest season where I had a chance at winning it all. The prize money will come in handy at getting my wife and I over the hump to do some stuff with some land we own to get some income out of it. I owe a lot of my selections to this thread, I was following this thread and the cheaper players that came through came from this website and this thread, so thanks to all for the help. More than the money I really wanted to bragging rights of winning it all... would have been fun saying it for the rest of my life. You guys will get to hear about my 2nd place finish a bunch so don't be too concerned. I had a lot of luck. Derek Carr carried me as my only QB since week 14 and he performed admirably including getting out of concussion protocol in week 14 to make final cut by 1 point. If I had won it all I was going to buy a Derek Carr jersey. I will be a fan of Derek Carr for life and admire his grit. Really fun contest, even more fun to win a top prize. 
Puppies
Footballguy
Congratulations to @firstseason1988 , @dbc925 , and @UFFLCommish 
Even making the finals in this contest is an amazing accomplishment, considering only 1.82% of the people who entered the contest actually survived 14 weeks and had a chance for a prize. Statistically, the chance of finishing in the top ten was only 0.1%, and the statistical odds of winning were 9,995 to 1, or 0.0001%.
Don't forget the coming playoff contest!
Even making the finals in this contest is an amazing accomplishment, considering only 1.82% of the people who entered the contest actually survived 14 weeks and had a chance for a prize. Statistically, the chance of finishing in the top ten was only 0.1%, and the statistical odds of winning were 9,995 to 1, or 0.0001%.
Don't forget the coming playoff contest!
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Finished 2nd, kinda glad it wasn't too too close of a score. Missed by 10 points. If I had the wisdom to have Jordan Love instead of deadweight Aaron Rodgers on my team I would have won, I think I might have had Love on my team in an iteration, don't remember for sure. I had some incredible luck and it came down really to the very end of the contest season where I had a chance at winning it all. The prize money will come in handy at getting my wife and I over the hump to do some stuff with some land we own to get some income out of it. I owe a lot of my selections to this thread, I was following this thread and the cheaper players that came through came from this website and this thread, so thanks to all for the help. More than the money I really wanted to bragging rights of winning it all... would have been fun saying it for the rest of my life. You guys will get to hear about my 2nd place finish a bunch so don't be too concerned. I had a lot of luck. Derek Carr carried me as my only QB since week 14 and he performed admirably including getting out of concussion protocol in week 14 to make final cut by 1 point. If I had won it all I was going to buy a Derek Carr jersey. I will be a fan of Derek Carr for life and admire his grit. Really fun contest, even more fun to win a top prize.
Haha, you and me both brother. It's obviously huge to finish 2nd in a 10k-entry contest, but still feels like ugh, I want to actually win the thing!
Congratulations!
Army Eye
Footballguy
Gotta get hot at the right time! The contest winner:
It was not quite, but very nearly the case that the winning team's three best scoring weeks were week 15-17. Sleepy contributors like Juwan Johnson, Khalil Herbert, Raiders D, Jordan Love, George Pickens come up huge!!
It was not quite, but very nearly the case that the winning team's three best scoring weeks were week 15-17. Sleepy contributors like Juwan Johnson, Khalil Herbert, Raiders D, Jordan Love, George Pickens come up huge!!
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Stray Doug
Footballguy
I think this might be the theoretical contest-winning lineup (20 picked for $250 total)... 866.7 would have come in first place with a 242.95 point margin to the actual winner. Closest call during the regular season would have been week 10, clearing that week's 136.2 cut lion by a respectable 15.6 points.
QB
Lamar Jackson - $22
Baker Mayfield - $7
RB
Christian McCaffrey - $34
Breece Hall - $27
James Cook - $18
Jerome Ford - $8
Kyren Williams - $4
WR
CeeDee Lamb - $31
Amari Cooper - $21
George Pickens - $15
Rashee Rice - $8
Puka Nacua - $3
TE
David Njoku - $14
Juwan Johnson - $9
Sam LaPorta - $9
D
New York Giants - $4
Las Vegas Raiders - $3
PK
Harrison Butker - $6
Jason Sanders - $4
Ka'imi Fairbairn - $3
I have to say, I appreciate that the optimal lineup (until/unless someone can find one that would have beaten it) includes a $6 Kicker, just because that'll piss off our friend @TheWinz
QB
Lamar Jackson - $22
Baker Mayfield - $7
RB
Christian McCaffrey - $34
Breece Hall - $27
James Cook - $18
Jerome Ford - $8
Kyren Williams - $4
WR
CeeDee Lamb - $31
Amari Cooper - $21
George Pickens - $15
Rashee Rice - $8
Puka Nacua - $3
TE
David Njoku - $14
Juwan Johnson - $9
Sam LaPorta - $9
D
New York Giants - $4
Las Vegas Raiders - $3
PK
Harrison Butker - $6
Jason Sanders - $4
Ka'imi Fairbairn - $3
I have to say, I appreciate that the optimal lineup (until/unless someone can find one that would have beaten it) includes a $6 Kicker, just because that'll piss off our friend @TheWinz
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Stray Doug
Footballguy
Amazing to me that the winning team didn't have a single player over $15. I don't think this is typical of winning or top-finishing teams in past years. I think the Raiders D week 15 and 16 contributions are the most unexpected ones that stand out.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Definitely not typically. That said, it backs up the drum I've been beating, these posts we get all year about uniqueness are bunk. The winner was load with common players. Stay with the herd and hope a defense or flyer goes off. Even with a team full of common players, only one other team started the year with his top 5 players. You're all unique, even if you have all of the top 10 most owned players.
FairWarning
Footballguy
Congrats to the winners.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Challenge acceptedI think this might be the theoretical contest-winning lineup (20 picked for $250 total)... 866.7 would have come in first place with a 242.95 point margin to the actual winner. Closest call during the regular season would have been week 10, clearing that week's 136.2 cut lion by a respectable 15.6 points.
QB
Lamar Jackson - $22
Baker Mayfield - $7
RB
Christian McCaffrey - $34
Breece Hall - $27
James Cook - $18
Jerome Ford - $8
Kyren Williams - $4
WR
CeeDee Lamb - $31
Amari Cooper - $21
George Pickens - $15
Rashee Rice - $8
Puka Nacua - $3
TE
David Njoku - $14
Juwan Johnson - $9
Sam LaPorta - $9
D
New York Giants - $4
Las Vegas Raiders - $3
PK
Harrison Butker - $6
Jason Sanders - $4
Ka'imi Fairbairn - $3
I have to say, I appreciate that the optimal lineup (until/unless someone can find one that would have beaten it) includes a $6 Kicker, just because that'll piss off our friend @TheWinz
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
been saying this for a long time.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Yet next year we'll get 50-100 posts saying "I'm only one of two teams with players A, B, C, and D." Well duh....every team can do one of those. You know, on second thought, the fact your A, B, C, and D are unique is so riveting and pertinent it warrants a post.
Here's another example of a funny one especially earlier in the year. On Monday morning Team A who is a lock to advance and has T. Hill going Monday night says, "I hope Hill has a stinker to thin his ownership." Actually you want all the Hill owners to advance so your mini herd can take out you opposition for the rest of the year. You hide and advance in your Hill herd. If Hill misses a game later in the year, you hopefully have weaker members in your herd getting culled while you survive.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Yes. Great that some forum members took home some cash.
Puppies
Footballguy
Yet next year we'll get 50-100 posts saying "I'm only one of two teams with players A, B, C, and D." Well duh....every team can do one of those. You know, on second thought, the fact your A, B, C, and D are unique is so riveting and pertinent it warrants a post.
Here's another example of a funny one especially earlier in the year. On Monday morning Team A who is a lock to advance and has T. Hill going Monday night says, "I hope Hill has a stinker to thin his ownership." Actually you want all the Hill owners to advance so your mini herd can take out you opposition for the rest of the year. You hide and advance in your Hill herd. If Hill misses a game later in the year, you hopefully have weaker members in your herd getting culled while you survive.
Note that the winning team rostered 30 players.
We can talk all day long about unique players, etc, but teams that rostered the maximum 30 players amounted to only 90 teams out of 9, 966 in the contest, and the survival rate for 30 player rosters was more than double the survival rate of teams that rostered 24 players or less. To win this contest with a small roster of perceived 'studs' you have to be BOTH lucky and good, but mostly lucky, based on the number of injuries we have all seen this year.
The average survival rate for teams rostering between 25 and 30 players in this year's contest was 6.69%.
The average survival rate for teams rostering between 18 and 24 players was only 2.18%
If you knew nothing about the players and just threw darts at a board to choose them, you would probably do well to throw between 25 and 30 darts.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Yet next year we'll get 50-100 posts saying "I'm only one of two teams with players A, B, C, and D." Well duh....every team can do one of those. You know, on second thought, the fact your A, B, C, and D are unique is so riveting and pertinent it warrants a post.
Here's another example of a funny one especially earlier in the year. On Monday morning Team A who is a lock to advance and has T. Hill going Monday night says, "I hope Hill has a stinker to thin his ownership." Actually you want all the Hill owners to advance so your mini herd can take out you opposition for the rest of the year. You hide and advance in your Hill herd. If Hill misses a game later in the year, you hopefully have weaker members in your herd getting culled while you survive.
I don't share your opposition to the uniqueness posts/observations, I find them interesting. Nor do I agree with that one should actively desire a larger mini-herd to advance... the Hill owners are just as much your competition as the non-Hill owners are. If Hill is going to have a string of strong games, the fewer other owners who are also benefiting from those strong scores that he's posting, the comparatively better it is for you.
That said, hoping for uniqueness on certain players isn't the same as eschewing commonly owned players. You want to select the highest scoring possible players regardless of ownership, and if you do that reasonably well it really doesn't matter that much to you whether they are widely owned or unique (though, all else being equal, uniqueness is better for the playoffs). But certainly avoiding a player who you think will score well (but might be picked by a lot of other teams) is not likely to be a winning strategy.
And if a player you picked performed well, he's likely going to become increasingly widely owned as a % of remaining teams as the season progresses... that's not a bad thing, it's just a sign your player has performed well to date... but I'd still rather have a high-performing player who's not widely owned than one who is. The only argument I can conceive is the one you allude to at the end, which is that you are somewhat more insulated from a bad game from that player because more other teams would also be suffering from that same bad game. There's certainly some truth to that, but far outweighed IMO by the potential upside of having a unique player contributing to your score but not others.
The theoretical best roster this year just as many players who were thinly owned in the playoffs (seven players with <10 owners) than widely owned (seven players with >20 owners). So it's not either-or. You don't want to miss out on the widely-owned players who can help propel you forward in the contest and ensure that you're not at a disadvantage to the competition, but that doesn't mean that having some unique performers sprinkled in isn't desirable as well. (And it's a lot more interesting to think and post about who your difference makers are than which herd players you have on roster).
But examples of how being with the masses is a good thing:
1/ I put together a roster of the most widely-owned players heading into the playoffs (30 players), and wound up scoring 590.55, good enough for 5th place. Survived regular season weeks by double-digits except for a narrow survival of 4 points in week 14. But of course, that's a somewhat biased look at things, as being widely owned come playoff time is biased towards players who had a strong regular season performance... it is benefitting from hindsight.
2/ I put together a roster of the most widely owned players from contest start (22 players), I get a team that survives to the playoffs (despite the dead money of Nick Chubb), with the closest call being a 10.1 point cut lion clearance in week 13 when they had to eat a zero at Flex #2. They don't make much noise in the playoffs though, finishing at 495.25, good enough for 99th place. Amusingly, Kenny Pickett scores less for this team (0) than Nick Chubb (14.7 in week 1), failing to best the tandem of Jordan Love and Sam Howell in all 17 weeks.
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Yet next year we'll get 50-100 posts saying "I'm only one of two teams with players A, B, C, and D." Well duh....every team can do one of those. You know, on second thought, the fact your A, B, C, and D are unique is so riveting and pertinent it warrants a post.
Here's another example of a funny one especially earlier in the year. On Monday morning Team A who is a lock to advance and has T. Hill going Monday night says, "I hope Hill has a stinker to thin his ownership." Actually you want all the Hill owners to advance so your mini herd can take out you opposition for the rest of the year. You hide and advance in your Hill herd. If Hill misses a game later in the year, you hopefully have weaker members in your herd getting culled while you survive.
Note that the winning team rostered 30 players.
We can talk all day long about unique players, etc, but teams that rostered the maximum 30 players amounted to only 90 teams out of 9, 966 in the contest, and the survival rate for 30 player rosters was more than double the survival rate of teams that rostered 24 players or less. To win this contest with a small roster of perceived 'studs' you have to be BOTH lucky and good, but mostly lucky, based on the number of injuries we have all seen this year.
The average survival rate for teams rostering between 25 and 30 players in this year's contest was 6.69%.
The average survival rate for teams rostering between 18 and 24 players was only 2.18%
If you knew nothing about the players and just threw darts at a board to choose them, you would probably do well to throw between 25 and 30 darts.
Haha I was searching through my post history and I have been banging the larger-roster drum since back in the 2010 contest thread (and I was certainly doing so before then, I think that's just as far back as the board search goes). There was a post in there - 13 years ago - where someone said something like "the evidence is conclusive, maybe this is finally the year we put the roster size debate to rest." That's why I love this contest.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Yet next year we'll get 50-100 posts saying "I'm only one of two teams with players A, B, C, and D." Well duh....every team can do one of those. You know, on second thought, the fact your A, B, C, and D are unique is so riveting and pertinent it warrants a post.
Here's another example of a funny one especially earlier in the year. On Monday morning Team A who is a lock to advance and has T. Hill going Monday night says, "I hope Hill has a stinker to thin his ownership." Actually you want all the Hill owners to advance so your mini herd can take out you opposition for the rest of the year. You hide and advance in your Hill herd. If Hill misses a game later in the year, you hopefully have weaker members in your herd getting culled while you survive.
Will be disappointed if nobody has an entry named "Hill Herd" next year.
-QG
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Yet next year we'll get 50-100 posts saying "I'm only one of two teams with players A, B, C, and D." Well duh....every team can do one of those. You know, on second thought, the fact your A, B, C, and D are unique is so riveting and pertinent it warrants a post.
Here's another example of a funny one especially earlier in the year. On Monday morning Team A who is a lock to advance and has T. Hill going Monday night says, "I hope Hill has a stinker to thin his ownership." Actually you want all the Hill owners to advance so your mini herd can take out you opposition for the rest of the year. You hide and advance in your Hill herd. If Hill misses a game later in the year, you hopefully have weaker members in your herd getting culled while you survive.
I don't share your opposition to the uniqueness posts/observations, I find them interesting. Nor do I agree with that one should actively desire a larger mini-herd to advance... the Hill owners are just as much your competition as the non-Hill owners are. If Hill is going to have a string of strong games, the fewer other owners who are also benefiting from those strong scores that he's posting, the comparatively better it is for you.
That said, hoping for uniqueness on certain players isn't the same as eschewing commonly owned players. You want to select the highest scoring possible players regardless of ownership, and if you do that reasonably well it really doesn't matter that much to you whether they are widely owned or unique (though, all else being equal, uniqueness is better for the playoffs). But certainly avoiding a player who you think will score well (but might be picked by a lot of other teams) is not likely to be a winning strategy.
And if a player you picked performed well, he's likely going to be come increasingly widely owned as a % of remaining teams as the season progresses... that's not a bad thing, it's just a sign your player has performed well to date... but I'd still rather have a high-performing player who's not widely owned than one who is. The only argument I can conceive is the one you allude to at the end, which is that you are somewhat more insulated from a bad game from that player because more other teams would also be suffering from that same bad game. There's certainly some truth to that, but far outweighed IMO by the potential upside of having a unique player contributing to your score but not others.
The theoretical best roster this year just as many players who were thinly owned in the playoffs (seven players with <10 owners) than widely owned (seven players with >20 owners). So it's not either-or. You don't want to miss out on the widely-owned players who can help propel you forward in the contest and ensure that you're not at a disadvantage to the competition, but that doesn't mean that having some unique performers sprinkled in isn't desirable as well. (And it's a lot more interesting to think and post about who your difference makers are than which herd players you have on roster).
But examples of how being with the masses is a good thing:
1/ I put together a roster of the most widely-owned players heading into the playoffs (30 players), and wound up scoring 590.55, good enough for 5th place. Survived regular season weeks by double-digits except for a narrow survival of 4 points in week 14. But of course, that's a somewhat biased look at things, as being widely owned come playoff time is biased towards players who had a strong regular season performance... it is benefitting from hindsight.
2/ I put together a roster of the most widely owned players from contest start (22 players), I get a team that survives to the playoffs (despite the dead money of Nick Chubb), with the closest call being a 10.1 point cut lion clearance in week 13 when they had to eat a zero at Flex #2. They don't make much noise in the playoffs though, finishing at 495.25, good enough for 99th place. Amusingly, Kenny Pickett scores less for this team (0) than Nick Chubb (14.7 in week 1), failing to best the tandem of Jordan Love and Sam Howell in all 17 weeks.
I can come up with a program to randomly generate 4 or 5 players and post it here every couple of hours if people find these types of posts interesting.
This is where we disagree. Every rooster is vary unique without even trying. The odds of you having a very lightly owner player that bests the score of every other lightly owned players is miniscule. One example I have is Puka. I'm sure he tended to land on more bigger roosters. Every Puka owner who survived each week was another team taking the spot of an 18 player juggernaut. I would want all my buddies on this train running over the unique small roster teams.
Obviously picking great performers and avoiding injuries is the best path to success. Thanks for posting you highly owned examples above.
joey
Footballguy
The irony? the supercomputer is telling Winz to pick the 2 most expensive Kickers.
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