***Official*** 2011 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (1 Viewer)

[Hurl Bruce]

I am not going to complain with my 96th place standing right now. I don't expect to move either way too much from here.

 

[wollac]

WEEK 15 SIM

WEEK 16 SIM

OVERALL STANDINGS SIM

Using Lineup Dominator projections as of Wednesday night.

100-run Monte Carlo model.

 

[Asslete]

WEEK 15 SIM

WEEK 16 SIM

OVERALL STANDINGS SIM

Using Lineup Dominator projections as of Wednesday night.

100-run Monte Carlo model.

Wollac,

Thanks again for all of your work and the work of the other main contributors. Your simulator frightens me with optimism.

Team 104207

 

[NYRAGE]

Pretty good start for me. I had Roddy White, the Falcons Def, and M. Bryant. I needed it after a mediocre 162 pts last week.

 

[wollac]

Pretty good start for me. I had Roddy White, the Falcons Def, and M. Bryant. I needed it after a mediocre 162 pts last week.

Indeed. You were the only live team with that combo, and it helped you take the #1 spot so far in the updated Week 15 Sim...My database was updated with the results of the Thursday night game, then a new batch of 100 Monte Carlo runs were kicked off. (Note: Although I ran a new sim for Week 16, there was nothing different about the database for that week. Therefore, the results from it would be similar to the one run yesterday, but because of the randomness of Monte Carlo testing, you can expect that it will not be exactly the same). Here are the results of the new run...

WEEK 15 SIM

WEEK 16 SIM

OVERALL STANDINGS SIM

 

[pennystock]

Pretty good start for me. I had Roddy White, the Falcons Def, and M. Bryant. I needed it after a mediocre 162 pts last week.

Indeed. You were the only live team with that combo, and it helped you take the #1 spot so far in the updated Week 15 Sim...My database was updated with the results of the Thursday night game, then a new batch of 100 Monte Carlo runs were kicked off. (Note: Although I ran a new sim for Week 16, there was nothing different about the database for that week. Therefore, the results from it would be similar to the one run yesterday, but because of the randomness of Monte Carlo testing, you can expect that it will not be exactly the same). Here are the results of the new run...

WEEK 15 SIM

WEEK 16 SIM

OVERALL STANDINGS SIM

Excellent stuff, thanks for doing this. In the overall Sim I'm ranked 23rd. Ironically that's exactly the place I landed in my first year doing this (2008). Guess we'll see if I can better that or not.

 

[wollac]

AWESOME week for me so far. 213.75 with the following to go:

QB: Philip Rivers (-44.05)...not expecting any improvement against Baltimore's Defense.

WR: Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd (-14.0 and -14.6)...potential x2 here.

PK: Shaun Suisham (-9.0)...maybe, maybe not.

 

[kardplayer]

Here's the link for this week's scores going into SNF. Unfortunately, I don't have last week's scores by the ID#, so you'll have to guess where you are relative to last week - sorry!

I especially hate this, because I had a good week!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmSV5aHfLpnkdDF4QkpCelFtR3RTMVN3ZncyTVRpenc

 

[Pantherz]

AWESOME week for me so far. 213.75 with the following to go:QB: Philip Rivers (-44.05)...not expecting any improvement against Baltimore's Defense.WR: Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd (-14.0 and -14.6)...potential x2 here.PK: Shaun Suisham (-9.0)...maybe, maybe not.

I'm also having a good week with 211.15 plus R Mathews (-12.6). Unfortunately I had a horrible week last week with about 149. How was your last week?

 

[Pantherz]

Duplicate deleted

 

[wollac]

AWESOME week for me so far. 213.75 with the following to go:QB: Philip Rivers (-44.05)...not expecting any improvement against Baltimore's Defense.WR: Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd (-14.0 and -14.6)...potential x2 here.PK: Shaun Suisham (-9.0)...maybe, maybe not.

I'm also having a good week with 211.15 plus R Mathews (-12.6). Unfortunately I had a horrible week last week with about 149. How was your last week?

Not much better ... 156.45

 

[24seven]

Missed the final 250 by 10 points and scored 191.95 last week and have 202 this week with Vincent Jackson still scoring. :(

 

[Balco]

After 200 last week, sitting at about 175. With Rice to go in the 2nd half and Antonio Brown (-8.7) tomorrow. Pretty much carries by Stafford, Jimmy Graham, and Aaron Hernandez.

 

[NYRAGE]

I'm sitting around 238 after that Floyd td. I only had 162 last week, so this week helps.

 

[wollac]

LOTS of high scores this week. Check out THIS GUY

I ran a rough sim after the 4:00 PM games, and before the Sunday night game, and the average expected score this week was 186.65.

 

[a_troll00]

I'm done this week with a mildly impressive 181.8. At this point, I would reckon I have very little hope of making an impressive finish in this. But, it's still fun at least.

 

[kardplayer]

Here are this week's standings going into MNF:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmSV5aHfLpnkdHkwV3p2OUR6QWswMFV3MnIteUpfS0E

 

[BassNBrew]

207 for the week. Finished around 75 last week as I recall so I might move into the top 50.

 

[kevzilla]

At 215.15 with Antonio Brown -12.3 and Suisham -10. I need a little more to become relevant.

 

[Pnishthm]

LOTS of high scores this week. Check out THIS GUY

I ran a rough sim after the 4:00 PM games, and before the Sunday night game, and the average expected score this week was 186.65.

Holy crap and he still has Akers to go and Hakeem Nicks dropping two TDs have having one called back. He could have hit 300

 

[wollac]

A couple new sims:

With one game left in Week 15, here's the updated Week 15 sim, with current points applied, and projected points for MNF:

WEEK 15 SIM

PROJECTED STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 15

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS

 

[BassNBrew]

A couple new sims:

With one game left in Week 15, here's the updated Week 15 sim, with current points applied, and projected points for MNF:

WEEK 15 SIM

PROJECTED STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 15

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS

Thanks for all the good work. Looks like 22nd after tonite based on the after wk15 sim and finishing the contest in that same spot.11th - 15th place: $50

16th - 30th place: $40

31st - 100th place: $30

I think I've safely assured a top 100 finish based on a 30 pt lead over the 101st+ entries along with the fact that I'm the most common entry. Best case I suspect is a $50 prize. The top ten guys have to big of a head start over an un-unique team.

What's killed me in a my three defenses and kickers haven't manage a big day between them.

 

[Bruce Leroy]

LOTS of high scores this week. Check out THIS GUY

I ran a rough sim after the 4:00 PM games, and before the Sunday night game, and the average expected score this week was 186.65.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/103801.phpIt's BLUE THUNDER. At worst this person is going to have 447+ going into the final week.

Love his/her barely squeaking over the cut line in week #13

 

[QuizGuy66]

LOTS of high scores this week. Check out THIS GUY

I ran a rough sim after the 4:00 PM games, and before the Sunday night game, and the average expected score this week was 186.65.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/103801.phpIt's BLUE THUNDER. At worst this person is going to have 447+ going into the final week.

Love his/her barely squeaking over the cut line in week #13

Interesting to note that this team didn't have a week better than 173-and-change all season. Wonder if Iggy has the stats on where this guy ranked amongst the 250 in points going into the finals.-QG

 

[kevzilla]

LOTS of high scores this week. Check out THIS GUY

I ran a rough sim after the 4:00 PM games, and before the Sunday night game, and the average expected score this week was 186.65.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/103801.phpIt's BLUE THUNDER. At worst this person is going to have 447+ going into the final week.

Love his/her barely squeaking over the cut line in week #13

Interesting to note that this team didn't have a week better than 173-and-change all season. Wonder if Iggy has the stats on where this guy ranked amongst the 250 in points going into the finals.-QG

OC has him at 240.

 

[apalmer]

LOTS of high scores this week. Check out THIS GUY

I ran a rough sim after the 4:00 PM games, and before the Sunday night game, and the average expected score this week was 186.65.

http://subscribers.f...2011/103801.phpIt's BLUE THUNDER. At worst this person is going to have 447+ going into the final week.

Love his/her barely squeaking over the cut line in week #13

The power of the 18-man roster.

 

[BassNBrew]

Sitting in the 20th spot moving into the final week. Next week should be exciting.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/104781.php

 

[The Future Champs]

Sitting in the 20th spot moving into the final week. Next week should be exciting.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/104781.php

18th.

 

[NYRAGE]

Sitting in the 20th spot moving into the final week. Next week should be exciting.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/104781.php

7th

 

[Sake-Bombers]

LOTS of high scores this week. Check out THIS GUY

I ran a rough sim after the 4:00 PM games, and before the Sunday night game, and the average expected score this week was 186.65.

http://subscribers.f...2011/103801.phpIt's BLUE THUNDER. At worst this person is going to have 447+ going into the final week.

Love his/her barely squeaking over the cut line in week #13

The power of the 18-man roster.

The yang of this is that he needs those same guys to have a huge week again to win it. Can Spiller, White and Calvin duplicate that? Sure it's possible, but more likely he loses that big lead this week when other guys blow up. Still will probably end up top 10 with that mammoth week 15 though.Would I trade places with Blue Thunder? Sure. But I don't think he's a lock to win.

 

[rustycolts]

Sitting at 117.All I need to do is score 400 points next week to win this thing doable right?

 

[wollac]

Debunking the 18-man vs 30-man roster size debate:

So I've been reading and participating in this contest board for 2 years, and I think it's fair to say that the general consensus on this debate was that it was more advantageous to have a large roster in order to make the Final 250, then once in the Final 250, the smaller rosters (loaded with high dollar studs) would perform better and give you a greater chance at winning the money. I collected some scoring data on the Final 250 for Weeks 14 and 15, and here is the average score by roster size:

BTW, the overall average score is 178.16. For the BELOW AVERAGE/AVERAGE/ABOVE AVERAGE Label, I defined average as 177.16 to 179.16.

18 178.33 AVERAGE19 164.38 BELOW AVERAGE20 178.78 AVERAGE21 177.57 AVERAGE22 173.02 BELOW AVERAGE23 178.33 AVERAGE24 175.97 BELOW AVERAGE25 183.78 ABOVE AVERAGE26 178.60 AVERAGE27 185.02 ABOVE AVERAGE28 183.62 ABOVE AVERAGE29 177.18 AVERAGE30 183.43 ABOVE AVERAGE
Although this data is limited to only one year, two weeks, and 500 data points, I think it hints at the superiority of the larger roster, even in the finals. Discuss amongst yourselves...

 

[SanDawg]

the guy in 3rd place, I have been telling him for years to pay for the subscription just for the contest alone. He finally does it and looks like he might cash in nicely.

 

[Bad_Mo]

For my own reference....

384.50

 

[BassNBrew]

Sitting in the 20th spot moving into the final week. Next week should be exciting.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/104781.php

7th

Good luck next week.

 

[BassNBrew]

Sitting in the 20th spot moving into the final week. Next week should be exciting.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/104781.php

18th.

Nice to a see a Survivor league guy doing well. Congrats.

 

[NYRAGE]

Sitting in the 20th spot moving into the final week. Next week should be exciting.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/104781.php

7th

Good luck next week.

Thanks! I won't come close to repeating this past week, but it's all good. I was just happy to make the top 250 and was hoping to finish in the top 150 to win something.

 

[kardplayer]

95th for me

 

[QuizGuy66]

20. Lhucks 189.55 207.95 0.00 397.50

-QG

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

20. Lhucks 189.55 207.95 0.00 397.50

-QG

Haven't posted my squad yet...put up 186 with Moore out...no injuries in week one. Matthew Stafford $18 32.25 Colt McCoy $10 22.25 -------------------------------------Darren McFadden $28 16.10 Felix Jones $23 14.10 Chris Wells $16 18.20 Tim Hightower $14 17.20 Deji Karim $3 8.70 Ben Tate $3 17.60 Marion Barber $3 0.00 -------------------------------------Larry Fitzgerald $28 9.20 Kenny Britt $21 30.60 Dez Bryant $21 16.10 Lance Moore $10 0.00 Nate Burleson $8 13.00 Bernard Berrian $5 0.00 Antonio Brown $3 3.40 ---------------------------------------Jimmy Graham $15 17.60 Lance Kendricks $6 3.30 Evan Moore $2 14.00 --------------------------------------Olindo Mare $2 3.00 Mike Nugent $2 11.00 Jay Feely $2 4.00 ---------------------------------------Houston Texans $3 13.00 Denver Broncos $2 9.00 Jacksonville Jaguars $2 4.00

 

[BassNBrew]

20. Lhucks 189.55 207.95 0.00 397.50

-QG

Haven't posted my squad yet...put up 186 with Moore out...no injuries in week one. Matthew Stafford $18 32.25 Colt McCoy $10 22.25 -------------------------------------Darren McFadden $28 16.10 Felix Jones $23 14.10 Chris Wells $16 18.20 Tim Hightower $14 17.20 Deji Karim $3 8.70 Ben Tate $3 17.60 Marion Barber $3 0.00 -------------------------------------Larry Fitzgerald $28 9.20 Kenny Britt $21 30.60 Dez Bryant $21 16.10 Lance Moore $10 0.00 Nate Burleson $8 13.00 Bernard Berrian $5 0.00 Antonio Brown $3 3.40 ---------------------------------------Jimmy Graham $15 17.60 Lance Kendricks $6 3.30 Evan Moore $2 14.00 --------------------------------------Olindo Mare $2 3.00 Mike Nugent $2 11.00 Jay Feely $2 4.00 ---------------------------------------Houston Texans $3 13.00 Denver Broncos $2 9.00 Jacksonville Jaguars $2 4.00

When doug gave us the option to name a team, I figured he'd set it up to prevent duplicates. Seemed like a good idea and karma to grab his monkier before he couled use it for a few of reasons.1) If my team flamed out early, it would be listed as lhucks for people to crack on him about how crummy he did.2) Figured it would iritate him.3) I've been kicking his rear in virtually every league for years now, this would just be a good reminder for him.4) Given all the jinx and karma stuff on this board, I figured using that name would be good luck.Oh well, now I'll hang 90 points this week and drop from 20th to 200th.

 

[BassNBrew]

Interestingly enough, 15 of his 25 players are on my squad. Fortunately I avoided Britt, Hightower, and McFadden.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Interestingly enough, 15 of his 25 players are on my squad. Fortunately I avoided Britt, Hightower, and McFadden.

LOL - that's brilliant Schtick right there.-QG

 

[BassNBrew]

Interestingly enough, 15 of his 25 players are on my squad. Fortunately I avoided Britt, Hightower, and McFadden.

LOL - that's brilliant Schtick right there.-QG

would have been better if the knothead hadn't gotten himself banned for 6 months. brings new meaning to the saying, 'you got owned lhucks'what would be funny is joe sending on a mass e-mail congrating lhucks on 35k contest win and him sitting at home thinking wtf.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

#32? I never thought my team was good. I guess it's still not quite good enough. Not bad though.

 

[wollac]

Fellow FBG'ers,

Too much Christmas shopping and traveling on the agenda this week. Sorry, but I won't be putting out any sims this week. Besides, I think it's BLUE THUNDER's to lose at this point. Good luck to all of you this week.

 

[BassNBrew]

No heroics for me gents. Several of my key contributors (Felix, Manningham, VJax, Barber, etc) will be scratches. Just hoping to scrape together enough points to stay in the money at this time.

 

[jbird]

Down 23.75 from what I can tell; need the GB D and Jimmy Graham to light it up big time. I also need Roddy, Lance Moore and the NO D to be held in check. Asking for quite a bit but excited about the possibilities.

 

[wollac]

180.95 with:

RB: Pierre Thomas and Marion Barber (-2.4 and -12.2)

WR: Lance Moore (-12.2)

 

[jbird]

the guy in 3rd place, I have been telling him for years to pay for the subscription just for the contest alone. He finally does it and looks like he might cash in nicely.

If FF Index puts out a mag this year I still probably wouldn't have bought a FBG subscription. This message board, the news blog with commentary, and the 'at a glance' functionality of FF Index is all I've needed in years past. Since cheatsheets.net these guys' website(s) have assisted me to multiple championships. Thanks to everyone who has contributed (to my success) over the years. It'd be nice if I can hang on and get a free subscription for next year.