David Yudkin
Footballguy
It sure sounds like a MOP thread, so maybe this is an homage to MOP. I can't be bothered with the fancy formatting, bolding, and color schemes, but here goes.
I have now been in a bunch of redraft league drafts including 10, 12, 14, and 16 team drafts. They have run the gambit from standard scoring, PPR scoring, sliding scare PPR, bonus scoring, the whole shebang. These are my general observations based on how things have gone on draft day.
NFL SITUATIONS YOU MAY LOOK TO EXPLOIT:
STL WIDE RECEIVERS
At some point, someone will consider drafting them. Amendola and Smith particularly each have the chance to have 80 catch seasons. It may be one, the other, or both, but at the spot they are getting drafted they are free money in PPR leagues. It makes sense to hedge and grab both. Quick also is getting little love and is worth a flyer. Again, if none of these guys ends up doing anything early in the season, dump them for guys on the waiver wire.
BAL SKILLED POSITION PLAYERS
Other than Rice and Smith, most people are ignoring the rest of the Ravens. They appear headed to a hurry up offense and a more vertical attack, but that hasn't really been reflected in drafts. Boldin may be old and slow, but who else is going to catch the ball? Smith is going fairly early, but Boldin sits there round after round. And with the TEs being dinged up, I have seen them go undrafted or in the last round or two. In most leagues, Flacco is so far under the radar that in a couple leagues he went as a QB3.
MIN PLAYERS WITHOUT COOL INITIALS
With ADP not at 100%, MIN may struggle to move the football. Gerhart has been getting drafted all over the map, as some folks think he will be the main guy early in the year. Others that took ADP want him as a handcuff and don't want to risk not having him. A couple times I've seen Gerhart slide, but I am not sure he gets enough work as the season wears on. I'd say he's an ok investment if the price is right. Harvin has been getting drafted in the WR 15-20 range, which to me makes no sense. Simpson has been going very late or undrafted. Ponder isn't even a fantasy after thought. I may not love him, but if the Vikes have to pass more to move the ball (which I think they will), than he becomes a servicable QB2. Rudolph has the tools and the skills, but he also has been going too late for his upside. Any of those guys make for intriguing later round picks.
SD WRs
Rivers always gets his, and many have sniffed out that Gates will see a return to prominence. While that may be true, he alone will not account for 4000+ yards. Between VJax and Tolbert, 114-1639-11 left town. Brown is out for half the season. Mathews is dinged up. Meachem. Floyd, and Royal will all benefit. They all are going too late for a situation that has shown to produce a lot of passing production.
SAINTS WR2
Even with all the other distractions going on in New Orleans, WE KNOW that Drew Brees is going to throw the ball 630+ times. Graham and Colston go off the board quickly. And then after that . . . it seems like forever and a day until anyone looks at Moore and Henderson. Meachem moved on, so now there are 2 guys likely to get the production of what used to be three. That trio accounted for 124-1750-16. I wasn't a math major, so I'll let someone else do the math.
CHI PASSING ATTACK
I still am not convinced that they are going to the head of the class in terms of passing, but in several leagues Cutler, Marshall, and Jeffery were all drafted like they were part of the old vanguard in CHI. If these guys fall, there is no reason to not pick them up and hope for the best. I have seen Jeffery fall to the DEF and PK phase of drafts.
ALL THINGS COLTS
The names aren't pretty and people seem to remember the debacle known as the 2011 Colts. Wayne is flat out a gift from the heavens and is criminally undervalued. Collie has gone back to falling like a log because of his injury and can be had for a song. Both TEs are also late TE2 pick ups. Even Avery might be worth a look as a late round flyer. RGIII seems to get all the fantasy love, and Luck seems to get drafted several rounds later. Many people are still turning their noses up at Donald Brown, to which I say one man's trash is another man's treasure.
PATRIOTS RUNNING BACKS
I will save the lengthy explanation, historical research, and dissertation, but I see one or the other of Vereen or Ridley putting up BJGE numbers (or better). The beauty part is, since no one knows what to make of things in Foxboro, people are shying away from both players. Every day it seems there are reports that one is ahead of the other and the next day it's the opposite. These guys have started falling into the RB30s and 40s. I suspect one of them will end up RB20. I don't care which one, as I have been drafting both of them. IMO, Woodhead is not a factor. He had his chance last year and they barely used him. There will be a Pats RB With 10 TD this year. If not, Brady will pass for 55 TD. But we already know I think Brady will have his best season yet.
BUFFALO RUNNING BACKS
Similar to the NE situation, it looks like people are avoiding BUF backs as some people have forgotten about Jackson's insane start to last year and mostly remember how Spiller ended up. Both guys are available for a discount, and I see Jackson putting up borderline RB1 numbers and Spiller a decent flex play. If one guy gets hurt, the other guy will be Top 10 in those weeks. Weekly rankings if you had those two last year: 15, 2, 4, 9, 2, 2, 5, 19, 11, 18, 32, 12, 30, 1, 4. I have seen Jackson going around RB20 and Spiller around RB30.
NFL SITUATIONS YOU MAY WANT TO AVOID:
FALCONS PLAYERS
The hype on the Falcons passed insane aboot a month ago and has reached sheer hysteria. In some drafts, both Ryan and Jones have been gone in the first round and White early in the second. Rodgers is getting drafted when there are still bonafide clear NFL starters still on the board. Others feel Turner will get the benefit of a ton of goal line looks and his stock has gone back up. Heck, even Gonzalez is going earlier than he was a couple months ago. Douglas is even getting drafted when he went undrafted before. I think the Falcons will have a better offense, but at this rate they are getting drafted like the Warner era Greatest Show On Turf Rams.
STEELERS RUNNING BACKS
If anyone can see with any clarity what will happen in PIT, I am all ears. But there are now 4 guys getting drafted as PIT running backs, and each time the guy that picks one thinks he is getting the golden lottery ticket. I have passed on the PIT backfield, but good luck to those that indulge.
CHIEFS RUNNING BACKS
I hear all the talk of 500 combined carries for Hillis and Charles, but at this point Charles is getting drafted almost like he was in the past and Hillis is getting drafted as a fantasy RB2. To me, both of those seem way too high. I don't know if Charles is going to be the same guy, and I don't know if Hillis will get enough work to be a RB2. I also wonder if the Chiefs improved defense is for real, and if not I think the Chiefs will end up passing more than expected. Oh, and Bowe is always undervalued.
SEATTLE WIDE RECEIVERS
I was in a deep draft recently and 6 Seahawk receivers and 2 tight ends were drafted. Call it a hunch, but I can't see the Seahawks having that many guys even close to fantasy relevant, and I also am not smart enough to decipher who makes the final cut and what their production will be. And having a QB competition won't help map the landscape any. I guess the plu side has that all these guys are off the map and in the fantasy jungle, so if you land the right one and he produces you could have a gem. But it looks clear as mud to me.
LIONS PLAYERS
Look, we all know the Lions put up silly numbers last year. I get that. But as I see it, all they can do is go down from there. They trew the ball nearly 700 times last year. even if the offense is as good as advertised, they may lose attempts by variations in game conditions and field position. Their running back corps can't all be banged up all season, can they? Cause if they aren't, I see a lot more rushing attempts than last year. Megatron is going Top 5, people are pimping Pettigrew something fierce, Young is now getting drafted aheard of proven, starting NFL receivers with fantasy track records, all of which leads me to think that people are buying these guys with the best outcome that they break even as long as the Lions repeat last year's offensive explosion. Fantasy wise, I don't like walking in to things where getting 80 cents on the dollar is a realistic outcome.
OTHER OBSERVATIONS:
TO QB EARLY OR NOT TO QB EARLY
The golden age of QBs has made trying to map out a draft strategy next to impossible. I have seem some leagues where the top QBs fly off the board . . . and then no one gets picked for many rounds. I have seen drafts where top QBs fly off the board and then the second tier guys go in the next few rounds right afterwards. I have seen drafts where the top QBs fly off the board, the next wave comes off pretty quick, and then the position is ignored until the 9th or 10th round. The problem there is, the guys available late are not always the same guys. I will let others decide if waiting that long and getting a RGIII, Cutler, Flacco, or the like is who people want to go to war with. Sometimes Big Ben is available. Other times it's Peyton. Or Schaub. If you can live with one of those guys as a starter, you can still wait on a QB. But if you want a proven big point producer, you have to go all in EARLY.
RUNNING BACKS ARE THIN . . . WAFER THIN
It may be an illusion, but this year more than ever it seems that there is a distinct line in the sand with regard to running backs. Sure, there are fewer 300 carry backs these days, a mess of guys going in the 2nd through 4th rounds, some decent gambles in the rounds after that, but then the cupboard gets bare pretty quick and there are a ton of maybes that could play more or could get more carries or could be a good handcuff, etc. What gets me is that those guys are getting drafted as pretty much backups, handcuffs, or shots in the dark are getting picked while there still are NFL starters at QB, WR, and TE just sitting there and that mystifies me. By that I mean in the middle rounds people are grabbing a piece of the PIT RB pie . . . or the back ups in OAK . . . or one of the multiple WAS backs . . . I think you get the point. None of these guys are assured of any amount of playing time. Strategy wise, go early or go late on RBs, the middle rounds are a total land mine.
TIGHT ENDS
The Big 2 go early early. The next tier goes pretty quick too. But then after that, you can wait and wait and wait. As I see it, after the first two tiers, there really is not a ton of difference with regard to most everyone else. Again, people start grabbing QB2s, backup RBs, maybe the top defenses, etc. when you can get a decent (not mind blowing) TE or two.
That's about it for now.
I have now been in a bunch of redraft league drafts including 10, 12, 14, and 16 team drafts. They have run the gambit from standard scoring, PPR scoring, sliding scare PPR, bonus scoring, the whole shebang. These are my general observations based on how things have gone on draft day.
NFL SITUATIONS YOU MAY LOOK TO EXPLOIT:
STL WIDE RECEIVERS
At some point, someone will consider drafting them. Amendola and Smith particularly each have the chance to have 80 catch seasons. It may be one, the other, or both, but at the spot they are getting drafted they are free money in PPR leagues. It makes sense to hedge and grab both. Quick also is getting little love and is worth a flyer. Again, if none of these guys ends up doing anything early in the season, dump them for guys on the waiver wire.
BAL SKILLED POSITION PLAYERS
Other than Rice and Smith, most people are ignoring the rest of the Ravens. They appear headed to a hurry up offense and a more vertical attack, but that hasn't really been reflected in drafts. Boldin may be old and slow, but who else is going to catch the ball? Smith is going fairly early, but Boldin sits there round after round. And with the TEs being dinged up, I have seen them go undrafted or in the last round or two. In most leagues, Flacco is so far under the radar that in a couple leagues he went as a QB3.
MIN PLAYERS WITHOUT COOL INITIALS
With ADP not at 100%, MIN may struggle to move the football. Gerhart has been getting drafted all over the map, as some folks think he will be the main guy early in the year. Others that took ADP want him as a handcuff and don't want to risk not having him. A couple times I've seen Gerhart slide, but I am not sure he gets enough work as the season wears on. I'd say he's an ok investment if the price is right. Harvin has been getting drafted in the WR 15-20 range, which to me makes no sense. Simpson has been going very late or undrafted. Ponder isn't even a fantasy after thought. I may not love him, but if the Vikes have to pass more to move the ball (which I think they will), than he becomes a servicable QB2. Rudolph has the tools and the skills, but he also has been going too late for his upside. Any of those guys make for intriguing later round picks.
SD WRs
Rivers always gets his, and many have sniffed out that Gates will see a return to prominence. While that may be true, he alone will not account for 4000+ yards. Between VJax and Tolbert, 114-1639-11 left town. Brown is out for half the season. Mathews is dinged up. Meachem. Floyd, and Royal will all benefit. They all are going too late for a situation that has shown to produce a lot of passing production.
SAINTS WR2
Even with all the other distractions going on in New Orleans, WE KNOW that Drew Brees is going to throw the ball 630+ times. Graham and Colston go off the board quickly. And then after that . . . it seems like forever and a day until anyone looks at Moore and Henderson. Meachem moved on, so now there are 2 guys likely to get the production of what used to be three. That trio accounted for 124-1750-16. I wasn't a math major, so I'll let someone else do the math.
CHI PASSING ATTACK
I still am not convinced that they are going to the head of the class in terms of passing, but in several leagues Cutler, Marshall, and Jeffery were all drafted like they were part of the old vanguard in CHI. If these guys fall, there is no reason to not pick them up and hope for the best. I have seen Jeffery fall to the DEF and PK phase of drafts.
ALL THINGS COLTS
The names aren't pretty and people seem to remember the debacle known as the 2011 Colts. Wayne is flat out a gift from the heavens and is criminally undervalued. Collie has gone back to falling like a log because of his injury and can be had for a song. Both TEs are also late TE2 pick ups. Even Avery might be worth a look as a late round flyer. RGIII seems to get all the fantasy love, and Luck seems to get drafted several rounds later. Many people are still turning their noses up at Donald Brown, to which I say one man's trash is another man's treasure.
PATRIOTS RUNNING BACKS
I will save the lengthy explanation, historical research, and dissertation, but I see one or the other of Vereen or Ridley putting up BJGE numbers (or better). The beauty part is, since no one knows what to make of things in Foxboro, people are shying away from both players. Every day it seems there are reports that one is ahead of the other and the next day it's the opposite. These guys have started falling into the RB30s and 40s. I suspect one of them will end up RB20. I don't care which one, as I have been drafting both of them. IMO, Woodhead is not a factor. He had his chance last year and they barely used him. There will be a Pats RB With 10 TD this year. If not, Brady will pass for 55 TD. But we already know I think Brady will have his best season yet.
BUFFALO RUNNING BACKS
Similar to the NE situation, it looks like people are avoiding BUF backs as some people have forgotten about Jackson's insane start to last year and mostly remember how Spiller ended up. Both guys are available for a discount, and I see Jackson putting up borderline RB1 numbers and Spiller a decent flex play. If one guy gets hurt, the other guy will be Top 10 in those weeks. Weekly rankings if you had those two last year: 15, 2, 4, 9, 2, 2, 5, 19, 11, 18, 32, 12, 30, 1, 4. I have seen Jackson going around RB20 and Spiller around RB30.
NFL SITUATIONS YOU MAY WANT TO AVOID:
FALCONS PLAYERS
The hype on the Falcons passed insane aboot a month ago and has reached sheer hysteria. In some drafts, both Ryan and Jones have been gone in the first round and White early in the second. Rodgers is getting drafted when there are still bonafide clear NFL starters still on the board. Others feel Turner will get the benefit of a ton of goal line looks and his stock has gone back up. Heck, even Gonzalez is going earlier than he was a couple months ago. Douglas is even getting drafted when he went undrafted before. I think the Falcons will have a better offense, but at this rate they are getting drafted like the Warner era Greatest Show On Turf Rams.
STEELERS RUNNING BACKS
If anyone can see with any clarity what will happen in PIT, I am all ears. But there are now 4 guys getting drafted as PIT running backs, and each time the guy that picks one thinks he is getting the golden lottery ticket. I have passed on the PIT backfield, but good luck to those that indulge.
CHIEFS RUNNING BACKS
I hear all the talk of 500 combined carries for Hillis and Charles, but at this point Charles is getting drafted almost like he was in the past and Hillis is getting drafted as a fantasy RB2. To me, both of those seem way too high. I don't know if Charles is going to be the same guy, and I don't know if Hillis will get enough work to be a RB2. I also wonder if the Chiefs improved defense is for real, and if not I think the Chiefs will end up passing more than expected. Oh, and Bowe is always undervalued.
SEATTLE WIDE RECEIVERS
I was in a deep draft recently and 6 Seahawk receivers and 2 tight ends were drafted. Call it a hunch, but I can't see the Seahawks having that many guys even close to fantasy relevant, and I also am not smart enough to decipher who makes the final cut and what their production will be. And having a QB competition won't help map the landscape any. I guess the plu side has that all these guys are off the map and in the fantasy jungle, so if you land the right one and he produces you could have a gem. But it looks clear as mud to me.
LIONS PLAYERS
Look, we all know the Lions put up silly numbers last year. I get that. But as I see it, all they can do is go down from there. They trew the ball nearly 700 times last year. even if the offense is as good as advertised, they may lose attempts by variations in game conditions and field position. Their running back corps can't all be banged up all season, can they? Cause if they aren't, I see a lot more rushing attempts than last year. Megatron is going Top 5, people are pimping Pettigrew something fierce, Young is now getting drafted aheard of proven, starting NFL receivers with fantasy track records, all of which leads me to think that people are buying these guys with the best outcome that they break even as long as the Lions repeat last year's offensive explosion. Fantasy wise, I don't like walking in to things where getting 80 cents on the dollar is a realistic outcome.
OTHER OBSERVATIONS:
TO QB EARLY OR NOT TO QB EARLY
The golden age of QBs has made trying to map out a draft strategy next to impossible. I have seem some leagues where the top QBs fly off the board . . . and then no one gets picked for many rounds. I have seen drafts where top QBs fly off the board and then the second tier guys go in the next few rounds right afterwards. I have seen drafts where the top QBs fly off the board, the next wave comes off pretty quick, and then the position is ignored until the 9th or 10th round. The problem there is, the guys available late are not always the same guys. I will let others decide if waiting that long and getting a RGIII, Cutler, Flacco, or the like is who people want to go to war with. Sometimes Big Ben is available. Other times it's Peyton. Or Schaub. If you can live with one of those guys as a starter, you can still wait on a QB. But if you want a proven big point producer, you have to go all in EARLY.
RUNNING BACKS ARE THIN . . . WAFER THIN
It may be an illusion, but this year more than ever it seems that there is a distinct line in the sand with regard to running backs. Sure, there are fewer 300 carry backs these days, a mess of guys going in the 2nd through 4th rounds, some decent gambles in the rounds after that, but then the cupboard gets bare pretty quick and there are a ton of maybes that could play more or could get more carries or could be a good handcuff, etc. What gets me is that those guys are getting drafted as pretty much backups, handcuffs, or shots in the dark are getting picked while there still are NFL starters at QB, WR, and TE just sitting there and that mystifies me. By that I mean in the middle rounds people are grabbing a piece of the PIT RB pie . . . or the back ups in OAK . . . or one of the multiple WAS backs . . . I think you get the point. None of these guys are assured of any amount of playing time. Strategy wise, go early or go late on RBs, the middle rounds are a total land mine.
TIGHT ENDS
The Big 2 go early early. The next tier goes pretty quick too. But then after that, you can wait and wait and wait. As I see it, after the first two tiers, there really is not a ton of difference with regard to most everyone else. Again, people start grabbing QB2s, backup RBs, maybe the top defenses, etc. when you can get a decent (not mind blowing) TE or two.
That's about it for now.
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