Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Star Fund is up 14%. These numbers are for money that was in on Jan 1, so if you've been adding during the year, that could explain the difference.
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Get Your Money out of the Market (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LHUCKS
- Start date
siffoin
Footballguy
Just for fun let's do another hypothetical experiment comparing a Buy and Hold Portfolio vs A Trend Investing Portfolio.
I'll do my best to favor the Buy and Holder for this experiment.
Here are the assumptions with a 30 year time horizon.
1) We recognize that over the 30 year time frame there will bull markets and bear markets. There is good cyclical evidence that bear markets occur every 50 months (+/- 6 months). But in order to favor the buy and holder let's say that bull markets last 60 months, and bear markets last 12 months.
2) Both will invest in the same ETFs, with the same level of asset allocation. Let's say over the course of every 5 year Bull market the returns for both portfolios will be 100%.
2) The average bear market decline since 1900 is 31.5% (according to Ned Davis Research). For ease let's just call it 30%. So every 6th year the buy and holder's portfolio will lose 30%. The Trend Investor will still get dinged by a bear...let's say by 10%.
3) Both portfolios begin with a balance of $100k and at the bottom of a bear market. Both portfolios exit after year 29 at a bull market high. The luckiest entry and exit timing for a 30 year period.
Here's how those portfolios look over the time horizon:
Buy and Hold Portfolio: Open at $100k
1 thru 5 Bull- $200,000
6 Bear- $140,000
7 thru 11 Bull- $280,000
12 Bear- $196,000
13 thru 17 Bull- $392,000
18 Bear- $274,400
19 thru 23 Bull- $548,800
24 Bear- $384,160
25 thru 29 Bull- $768,320
Here's the Trend Investor Portfolio: Open at 100k
1 thru 5 Bull- $200,000
6 Bear- $180,000
7 thru 11 Bull- $360,000
12 Bear- $324,000
13 thru 17 Bull- $648,000
18 Bear- $583,200
19 thru 23 Bull- $1,166,400
24 Bear- $1,049,760
25 thru 29 Bull- $2,099,520
The Trend Investors results over 30 years is almost 3x better than the buy and holders. To me it's that difference that makes all the difference in the world.
I'll do my best to favor the Buy and Holder for this experiment.
Here are the assumptions with a 30 year time horizon.
1) We recognize that over the 30 year time frame there will bull markets and bear markets. There is good cyclical evidence that bear markets occur every 50 months (+/- 6 months). But in order to favor the buy and holder let's say that bull markets last 60 months, and bear markets last 12 months.
2) Both will invest in the same ETFs, with the same level of asset allocation. Let's say over the course of every 5 year Bull market the returns for both portfolios will be 100%.
2) The average bear market decline since 1900 is 31.5% (according to Ned Davis Research). For ease let's just call it 30%. So every 6th year the buy and holder's portfolio will lose 30%. The Trend Investor will still get dinged by a bear...let's say by 10%.
3) Both portfolios begin with a balance of $100k and at the bottom of a bear market. Both portfolios exit after year 29 at a bull market high. The luckiest entry and exit timing for a 30 year period.
Here's how those portfolios look over the time horizon:
Buy and Hold Portfolio: Open at $100k
1 thru 5 Bull- $200,000
6 Bear- $140,000
7 thru 11 Bull- $280,000
12 Bear- $196,000
13 thru 17 Bull- $392,000
18 Bear- $274,400
19 thru 23 Bull- $548,800
24 Bear- $384,160
25 thru 29 Bull- $768,320
Here's the Trend Investor Portfolio: Open at 100k
1 thru 5 Bull- $200,000
6 Bear- $180,000
7 thru 11 Bull- $360,000
12 Bear- $324,000
13 thru 17 Bull- $648,000
18 Bear- $583,200
19 thru 23 Bull- $1,166,400
24 Bear- $1,049,760
25 thru 29 Bull- $2,099,520
The Trend Investors results over 30 years is almost 3x better than the buy and holders. To me it's that difference that makes all the difference in the world.
siffoin
Footballguy
try it now
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Acme CEO
Footballguy
Odd... just says the member is not accepting new messages. Anyways, the question is: does your indicator work to time stock accumulation points instead of entry & exit points? Lets take Apple for example. Lots of people have done well buying and holding apple for the last 3 years, and continued to buy whenever they had extra savings. If they used your indicator to time accumulation points only, without selling, how well would they have done? I'm thinking the tax savings would make the 2 strategies somewhat close?
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Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
Siff, i realize you put together the best case scenario for the buy and hold investor and that he's unlikely to achieve that level of success.However, didn't you also give the trend investor the best case scenario?I mean, what if the trend investor ####s up once or twice?
siffoin
Footballguy
The point of the PI post was to show those who say "I don't have time...I'm limited in what I can and cannot trade...etc" that in fact you can if you want and it doesn't take much time or effort or skill.Individual stock is traded slightly differently. But with the same indicators used to compile the PI. Results are extraordinary. I've posted charts of AAPL on my blog quite a few times.
siffoin
Footballguy
Well in the post that includes the Goog Docs spreadsheet, I did show that Trend Investing over a period of years from the bottom of a bear outperforms buy and hold. So I'm giving up quite a bit there to bias the buy and hold trader equaling their returns over that 5 year bull period.After a 5 year bull, I'd be shocked to find the PI loses 10% from a bear. SHOCKED. Not saying it couldn't happen. That's why I gave up 10% off every bear trend.With that said...I think the thread has gotten way off target, and I apologize for that. It needs to move elsewhere. I'll address some of these issues on my blog and will probably copy there what I've written here. Not in this thread anymore.In the end and speaking to everyone in the FFA reading this. Invest how you think best for you. I have my method. I think it is pretty logical and practical and simple. I've always been pretty happy to share it. If you are convinced your way is better...Cramers way is better...Wall Streets way is better. I'm all good with that too.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Am I understanding this correctly?
Al Czervik
Not wearing pants
This crappy thread sure turned into a good conversation. 
Random
Footballguy
I know you're getting hammered in here with questions, but would you mind answering this? Seems the one thing no one ever addresses.
FUBAR
Footballguy
How will thus work for those with multiple accounts and various holdings within those accounts which would Cost five or ten dollars to sell each? If I were to get out of the market entirely, it world cost me around two to three hundred dollars just in trades. I could just trade our of my largest account but that's only 1/3 of my assets.
Sarnoff
Footballguy
But don't you need to check the indicator every day? How often do you have to run the charts, and how much analysis goes into deciding "is today the day I buy/sell?" I think it has to be more than 13 hours worth of work over 4 years. It seems like it would have to take some amount of time every day, right?
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
It goes to show that tips are for waiters, that none of us really know what is going to happen with any one individual stock unless you're on the inside.I made my $1000 mistake by investing in a Dodds choice also with NVDA.It was a valuable lesson and i'll never forget it.I'm not a stock day trader and i'll never do something like that again.I think that knowing yourself is important when it comes to trading and investing... what your REAL risk tolerance is, and what constitutes success to you.I found out my risk tolerance wasn't what i thought it was.I'd rather rack up a lot of little wins and rarely if ever lose, even if it means i'll never hit a big time double up or 5 bagger.Income Investing has been perfect for me. I like the little rewards in the form of dividends every quarter. Just building up my money a little at a time.I don't need the thrill of a huge score.... i just want to take my money and make money... preferred stocks, REITs, ETFs... they've been great choices for me.
I'm learning and listening.
siffoin
Footballguy
Let me try to answer all those questions:
1) First the Asset Allocation model from AAII is just that...a model. And the ETFs picked were out of simplicity. I do trade some SPDRs, but not exclusively or all the time. My fund is diversified slightly different from that AAII model too. The jist was to present a simple model for those who say "I can't....I'm limited...". Everyone is different in their experience, the way their investment portfolio is structured, and how much time and energy they want to devote to this sort of stuff. It's really impossible for me to give individual advice on how to structure yours...use what was presented as a general compass...not a GPS.
2) The PI trend is Bullish right now. The trend flip recent (12/10). Assuming you are fully invested, I don't think it smart to close positions and re-balance. If Trend Investing appeals to you, then you are more than welcome to follow along in my blog. I'm confident that at some point in the future the trend will turn from Bull to Bear, and it is then you want to make your moves. I post charts once a week...sometimes on Friday but typically over the weekend. As a trend moves through time we see it's momentum strengthen or wane, and we have quite a bit of advance warning of the potential of a trend flip as that nears. I post the PI flips on the day they occur...and Twit it as well. You don't have to be glued to my charts or your portfolio to trend invest...but a glance 1x per week 90% of the time would suffice. As a trend's momentum begins to wane you'd probably want to pay more attention. Investing is not a Game of Perfect.
3) Random asked the question about how you enter and exit. The simple answer is you do it AT the Trend Flip of the PI. If you miss by a day or 2 it's typically no big deal, and quite often you'll actually have a better entry, but being active early is key. While the early part of a trend does present the risk and potential of a whipsaw...it also presents the most opportunity for the biggest profits. A trend investor MUST be active on the turns of a trend. In the spreadsheet presented all the moves occurred on the close of the day of a PI trend flip. As with every investment decision...losses are possible at any time.
4) Investing presents a near unlimited menu of choices. Find the part of the menu that appeals to you...that you can understand. Use Fundamental analysis to determine what to buy. Use technical analysis to determine when to buy it.
5) I have a bunch of sayings (like Forrest Gump) to keep me grounded to the market they include:
a. No one knows the future
b. Never let a winner turn into a loser
c. A trend is a trend until it isn't.
You'll make a lot of money and save a lot of money if you adhere to those 3 Siffoisms.
5) Dentist: I think what you are doing for your situation is smart. Good job. But don't get lazy.
6) FLRanger: Wow. Never thought I even had a chance to convince you to turn away from the dark side.
1) First the Asset Allocation model from AAII is just that...a model. And the ETFs picked were out of simplicity. I do trade some SPDRs, but not exclusively or all the time. My fund is diversified slightly different from that AAII model too. The jist was to present a simple model for those who say "I can't....I'm limited...". Everyone is different in their experience, the way their investment portfolio is structured, and how much time and energy they want to devote to this sort of stuff. It's really impossible for me to give individual advice on how to structure yours...use what was presented as a general compass...not a GPS.
2) The PI trend is Bullish right now. The trend flip recent (12/10). Assuming you are fully invested, I don't think it smart to close positions and re-balance. If Trend Investing appeals to you, then you are more than welcome to follow along in my blog. I'm confident that at some point in the future the trend will turn from Bull to Bear, and it is then you want to make your moves. I post charts once a week...sometimes on Friday but typically over the weekend. As a trend moves through time we see it's momentum strengthen or wane, and we have quite a bit of advance warning of the potential of a trend flip as that nears. I post the PI flips on the day they occur...and Twit it as well. You don't have to be glued to my charts or your portfolio to trend invest...but a glance 1x per week 90% of the time would suffice. As a trend's momentum begins to wane you'd probably want to pay more attention. Investing is not a Game of Perfect.
3) Random asked the question about how you enter and exit. The simple answer is you do it AT the Trend Flip of the PI. If you miss by a day or 2 it's typically no big deal, and quite often you'll actually have a better entry, but being active early is key. While the early part of a trend does present the risk and potential of a whipsaw...it also presents the most opportunity for the biggest profits. A trend investor MUST be active on the turns of a trend. In the spreadsheet presented all the moves occurred on the close of the day of a PI trend flip. As with every investment decision...losses are possible at any time.
4) Investing presents a near unlimited menu of choices. Find the part of the menu that appeals to you...that you can understand. Use Fundamental analysis to determine what to buy. Use technical analysis to determine when to buy it.
5) I have a bunch of sayings (like Forrest Gump) to keep me grounded to the market they include:
a. No one knows the future
b. Never let a winner turn into a loser
c. A trend is a trend until it isn't.
You'll make a lot of money and save a lot of money if you adhere to those 3 Siffoisms.
5) Dentist: I think what you are doing for your situation is smart. Good job. But don't get lazy.
6) FLRanger: Wow. Never thought I even had a chance to convince you to turn away from the dark side.
Just some post from the peanut gallery here....
I'm not sure a lot of people in here really should be following most of the stuff that is posted here, especially with retirement account money. And you'll have to forgive me if some of my broad assumptions here are incorrect, but if you want to gamble on stuff you read on message boards, setup a brokerage account with some mad money and don't use money that is earmarked for retirement to try tailing some 'tips' you read on here.
Dodds is a very active trader from what I've ascertained, and he can make money on upticks of a few pennies as he trades massive volumes of a certain stock. He can probably afford to be infront of a chart for a good part of the day, or has set automatic buy/sell orders, so if you buy EXK at $8.05 in the morning, and check back later in the day and it's at $7.90, you've lost almost 2% of your stake. However, during intraday trading, it may have ticked up to 8.12, and Dodds may have sold 20,000 shares at a 7 cent gain, and closed his position entirely or else has lowered his cost basis by that much and is in a better position to realize future gains.
This is extremely risky, and by no means would I advise making these kinds of gambles (and let's face it, it's really high stakes gambling if you have no idea what you're doing) with money that I want to see 20 years down the lines at substantial gains. Sure, you may hit a home run once in awhile, but for the most part you will not.
I will not even touch what Siffoin does.
If you are trying to find good entry points and exit points, you really need to focus on your investment horizon. you're not going to beat the market by timing it.
One thing I do which may or may not help any of you, is I have a spreadsheet detailing all of my trades. I think it helps me make less spontaneous/brash decisions when I need to take the time to think out what the hell I'm doing. Basically, I jot down things like purchase price, purchase date, number of shares...but moreso, WHY I bought the stock. WHAT kind of return I am expecting/timeframe, and WHO I may have read or listened to when purchasing the stock. I'm not going to say I am not guilty of following a message board tip from time to time (full disclosure I do own some PLG, and I made a bunch of money off LF), but for the most part, I only trade in a brokerage account, and I do some degree of research on a stock before purchasing, namely figuring out just where I will be happy getting in and out of the position.
g'luck
I'm not sure a lot of people in here really should be following most of the stuff that is posted here, especially with retirement account money. And you'll have to forgive me if some of my broad assumptions here are incorrect, but if you want to gamble on stuff you read on message boards, setup a brokerage account with some mad money and don't use money that is earmarked for retirement to try tailing some 'tips' you read on here.
Dodds is a very active trader from what I've ascertained, and he can make money on upticks of a few pennies as he trades massive volumes of a certain stock. He can probably afford to be infront of a chart for a good part of the day, or has set automatic buy/sell orders, so if you buy EXK at $8.05 in the morning, and check back later in the day and it's at $7.90, you've lost almost 2% of your stake. However, during intraday trading, it may have ticked up to 8.12, and Dodds may have sold 20,000 shares at a 7 cent gain, and closed his position entirely or else has lowered his cost basis by that much and is in a better position to realize future gains.
This is extremely risky, and by no means would I advise making these kinds of gambles (and let's face it, it's really high stakes gambling if you have no idea what you're doing) with money that I want to see 20 years down the lines at substantial gains. Sure, you may hit a home run once in awhile, but for the most part you will not.
I will not even touch what Siffoin does.
If you are trying to find good entry points and exit points, you really need to focus on your investment horizon. you're not going to beat the market by timing it.
One thing I do which may or may not help any of you, is I have a spreadsheet detailing all of my trades. I think it helps me make less spontaneous/brash decisions when I need to take the time to think out what the hell I'm doing. Basically, I jot down things like purchase price, purchase date, number of shares...but moreso, WHY I bought the stock. WHAT kind of return I am expecting/timeframe, and WHO I may have read or listened to when purchasing the stock. I'm not going to say I am not guilty of following a message board tip from time to time (full disclosure I do own some PLG, and I made a bunch of money off LF), but for the most part, I only trade in a brokerage account, and I do some degree of research on a stock before purchasing, namely figuring out just where I will be happy getting in and out of the position.
g'luck
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
I agree with pretty much everything in this post.And especially with the bolded.'siffoin said:
I do have to pay close attention with my income investments... when interest rates rise, the share prices on those are going to fall... and i need to be ready to sell when the indicator on those turns.
Admittedly, after i reached the point where i was invested as much as i wanted to be.. I did exactly that.. i got lazy.
I need to get back in there and re-analyze stuff... and keep on top of that income investing message board even closer.
thank you for a much needed kick in the bum
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
So, get my money in the market?
munga30
Checkin' my email
...Today.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
no, it sounds like you'd be better off making it rain before they switch us to dollar coins and it isn't possibly anymore (unless you're a big enough baller to make it rain with lincolns) and before your money decays to inflation
Todem
Footballguy
Up 13.75% in a growth portfolio in my IRA"s/401K 70/30 mix stocks to bonds/hedges/hard assets.
10% - Large Growth
10% - Large Value
6% - Small Value
6% - Small Growth
5% - Convertible Bonds
7% - Foreign Large Stock
4% - Emerging Market Equites
6% - REIT's
3% - Gold & Precious Metals
2% - Hard Currency
14% - Managed Futures
8% - Short Term Corporate Bonds
5% - TIPS
5% - Intermidiate BOnds
5% - Ginnie Mae Bonds
4% - International Government and Corporate Bonds
3% - Emerging Market Debt
3% - Floating Rate Bonds
Sector specific:
3% - Natural Resources
4% - Utilities
My taxable account is more conservative with a 45-50% mix of stocks to bonds and hedges (all asset classes same as above except I use Muni bonds for Short, Intermidiate and long bond positions as it is advantagous for my tax bracket...which may be going even higher next year)
In my taxable account I do have 45 different large cap equity positions (that is the larger of my accounts and have been invested in this since 1987...I am 42 and started young and kept building it out) in place of mutual funds in that asset class. Everything else is mutual funds and some individual bond positions.
I also do covered call writing as well a selling out of the money puts as a nice yield enhancement to the portfolio. The taxable portfolio has a yield of 4.2% and the IRA's yield just shy of 3% as they are more aggresive in the growth side.
Stocks are cheap. I was very cautious this year with my cash, and for my clients we built 30% cash in their portfolios which we put some to work right after the election.
I never believe in timing the market....but I do believe in selling winners, when the gains are really nice and rotating names in the same sector when appropriate.
I do think you will always have corrections and they present great buying opportunities. So when the market is really running don't be shy to sell big winners to build some powder to buy potential great bargains.
Buy and hold does work if your allocated correctly, do not let your emotions make your financial decisions and have a clear time horizon and specific goals for your money. Believe it or not there are highly qualified financial advisors out there who do know what they are doing.....so if your clueless or truly do not have the time needed to manage money in todays fast moving markets...seek out a professional. Not a stock jock...a real advisor with real expereience. One who has been in the business for at least 10 years minimum...who has taken there clients through some real downturns and understands managing risk...not selling returns.
If an advisor hard sells the returns.....run away.
If you need your money in 3 years or less (for a home, a wedding etc).....stay out of the stock market. You should have at least 3 things before investing in the market if your able to.
1) Your own home
2) At least 6 months of liquid savings in the bank (a year if you can)
3) A plan
If you missing at least one of those....do not invest all your money in the market unless you really young and just starting out with some birthday money or what not and want to try and learn with limited pain how to have patience, and invest....not gamble.
I started at age 17. 1987. My dad gave me 5K of my bar-mitzvah money and taught me how to read and understand the stock page. I told him I wanted a 280ZX instead and he said buy the stock instead and maybe in 7-10 years you can buy it yourself. So I go ahead and buy Nissan stock with 1K which was my very first investment. I still have the stock certificate LOL. Well.....Black Monday comes along and my 5K (among 5 stocks) goes down to $2800...I looked at my Dad and said...what now? It was at the age of 17 I got my greatest lesson about investing.
He gave my 5K more of my Bar mitzvah money (that was all of it) and said let's buy more.
I have never looked back since.
The stock I bought with that 5K?
Berkshire Hathaway.
Have I bought some bad stocks....of course we all do. But the majority of your stocks are good strong companies, pay growing and consistent dividends there is no better investment (maybe other than Real Estate) than Stocks over the long term.
Good luck everyone.
10% - Large Growth
10% - Large Value
6% - Small Value
6% - Small Growth
5% - Convertible Bonds
7% - Foreign Large Stock
4% - Emerging Market Equites
6% - REIT's
3% - Gold & Precious Metals
2% - Hard Currency
14% - Managed Futures
8% - Short Term Corporate Bonds
5% - TIPS
5% - Intermidiate BOnds
5% - Ginnie Mae Bonds
4% - International Government and Corporate Bonds
3% - Emerging Market Debt
3% - Floating Rate Bonds
Sector specific:
3% - Natural Resources
4% - Utilities
My taxable account is more conservative with a 45-50% mix of stocks to bonds and hedges (all asset classes same as above except I use Muni bonds for Short, Intermidiate and long bond positions as it is advantagous for my tax bracket...which may be going even higher next year)
In my taxable account I do have 45 different large cap equity positions (that is the larger of my accounts and have been invested in this since 1987...I am 42 and started young and kept building it out) in place of mutual funds in that asset class. Everything else is mutual funds and some individual bond positions.
I also do covered call writing as well a selling out of the money puts as a nice yield enhancement to the portfolio. The taxable portfolio has a yield of 4.2% and the IRA's yield just shy of 3% as they are more aggresive in the growth side.
Stocks are cheap. I was very cautious this year with my cash, and for my clients we built 30% cash in their portfolios which we put some to work right after the election.
I never believe in timing the market....but I do believe in selling winners, when the gains are really nice and rotating names in the same sector when appropriate.
I do think you will always have corrections and they present great buying opportunities. So when the market is really running don't be shy to sell big winners to build some powder to buy potential great bargains.
Buy and hold does work if your allocated correctly, do not let your emotions make your financial decisions and have a clear time horizon and specific goals for your money. Believe it or not there are highly qualified financial advisors out there who do know what they are doing.....so if your clueless or truly do not have the time needed to manage money in todays fast moving markets...seek out a professional. Not a stock jock...a real advisor with real expereience. One who has been in the business for at least 10 years minimum...who has taken there clients through some real downturns and understands managing risk...not selling returns.
If an advisor hard sells the returns.....run away.
If you need your money in 3 years or less (for a home, a wedding etc).....stay out of the stock market. You should have at least 3 things before investing in the market if your able to.
1) Your own home
2) At least 6 months of liquid savings in the bank (a year if you can)
3) A plan
If you missing at least one of those....do not invest all your money in the market unless you really young and just starting out with some birthday money or what not and want to try and learn with limited pain how to have patience, and invest....not gamble.
I started at age 17. 1987. My dad gave me 5K of my bar-mitzvah money and taught me how to read and understand the stock page. I told him I wanted a 280ZX instead and he said buy the stock instead and maybe in 7-10 years you can buy it yourself. So I go ahead and buy Nissan stock with 1K which was my very first investment. I still have the stock certificate LOL. Well.....Black Monday comes along and my 5K (among 5 stocks) goes down to $2800...I looked at my Dad and said...what now? It was at the age of 17 I got my greatest lesson about investing.
He gave my 5K more of my Bar mitzvah money (that was all of it) and said let's buy more.
I have never looked back since.
The stock I bought with that 5K?
Berkshire Hathaway.
Have I bought some bad stocks....of course we all do. But the majority of your stocks are good strong companies, pay growing and consistent dividends there is no better investment (maybe other than Real Estate) than Stocks over the long term.
Good luck everyone.
Todem
Footballguy
If they are bond funds really understand what they own.
Also go to the fund pages (say Pimco if you own Pimco Total Return for example) and stress test the fund to see what a .25% rise in interest rates will do .50% and so on to the NAV of the fund.
I run those screens for my clients and the bond funds we own for them in there portfolios.
Being proactive with your bond funds is key...selling off some and waiting for the dust to settle. But if you have a ton of cusion from years and years of dividend reinvestment...don't get too crazy. After the first 8-12 months of interest rates rising things settle down quick and they rebuild there inventories with higher yielding bonds.
But yes...you must be careful and know what you own.
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Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
i don't buy bond funds, i always buy the bonds themselves (or in my case the poor man's bonds - preferred stocks)
Todem
Footballguy
Well.....with individual bonds (as I am sure you know) don't worry. You get your par back at maturity.
Prefereds....I like some. But do not buy too many of them. I would not be sweating too much if you own individual bonds.
In fact if you have some really good profits.....take them as they will decay (as you know) over time. You just have to replace the yield....which you can't in the bond market.
Stocks should roar in 2013. There is no yield anywhere.
There is no "riskless" trade in the world anymore. Even cash.....inflation risk. LOL.
bump?
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Is this real life?
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
The Dow is at 13,321 right now.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Check back in at the close on Friday smart guy.The Dow is at 13,321 right now.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I almost wish he was around........almost
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Pfft, that's only like a 7.5% annualized return. Would've been much better off taking your money out of the market when LHUCKS told you to and put it into a bank account earning 10%.The Dow is at 13,321 right now.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
Keerock
Footballguy
Pfft, that's only like a 7.5% annualized return. Would've been much better off taking your money out of the market when LHUCKS told you to and put it into a bank account earning 10%.The Dow is at 13,321 right now.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.
The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
Fennis
Footballguy
My linkPfft, that's only like a 7.5% annualized return. Would've been much better off taking your money out of the market when LHUCKS told you to and put it into a bank account earning 10%.The Dow is at 13,321 right now.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.
The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
except he put all his money in reverse index fundsPfft, that's only like a 7.5% annualized return. Would've been much better off taking your money out of the market when LHUCKS told you to and put it into a bank account earning 10%.The Dow is at 13,321 right now.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
what was the return on those?except he put all his money in reverse index fundsPfft, that's only like a 7.5% annualized return. Would've been much better off taking your money out of the market when LHUCKS told you to and put it into a bank account earning 10%.The Dow is at 13,321 right now.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
what was the return on those?except he put all his money in reverse index fundsPfft, that's only like a 7.5% annualized return. Would've been much better off taking your money out of the market when LHUCKS told you to and put it into a bank account earning 10%.The Dow is at 13,321 right now.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
The_Man
Footballguy
Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
Dow up to 13,595, a 4.6% increase since this thread's origination, about a 14% annualized return.
get your money out of the market (if you hate profits)
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
NutterButter
Footballguy
Throw on a few percentage points more to account for dividends.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.Dow up to 13,595, a 4.6% increase since this thread's origination, about a 14% annualized return.
Lucky guy.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
good callOver the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
LHUCKS hates money
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Not all money. Just the US Dollar.Nearly everything is going up relative to the US dollar today... except the Yen and the Brisish Pound.Latest US economic numbers pretty much guarantee more Federal Reserve printing for a while. So as long as you're not holding US dollars, or other currencies currently doing (or about to resume) QE, you're good.Of course, all that really means is you'll get more dollars for your assets in the future because the dollar is worth less. Which is no different than your floor to ceiling measurement going from 84 inches to 94 inches from one month to the next. The ceiling didn't rise. The inch you use to measure it just got smaller.
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So, we should get out of the market NOW or a few months ago? How does inflation help people like our friend who started this thread who put their life savings in reverse 3x-leveraged index funds?based on what a lot of experts have been saying, the sky has been falling for awhile now.
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Keerock
Footballguy
I'm going to assume you are not calling LSHUCKS an expert here...
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