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Seahawks finish as #1 in FO's DVOA ratings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ImTheScientist
- Start date
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Edit: Eh. Not worth it.
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packseasontix
Footballguy
So after looking at it, a commenter had it right.
Nick Bradley "If your model has Denver, New England, Seahawks as the best teams in NFL history your model is broken"
If anything having these 3 teams ranked in the top 10 tells me the way this is calculated is off...
Nick Bradley "If your model has Denver, New England, Seahawks as the best teams in NFL history your model is broken"
If anything having these 3 teams ranked in the top 10 tells me the way this is calculated is off...
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Football Outsiders is pretty widely accepted amongst stat geeks. Just because it doesn't fit your idea of how things should be ranked doesn't mean its wrong. Historically their DVOA ratings have been VERY accurate judge of things.
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MaxThreshold
Footballguy
Never even heard of these guys until now. Are you sure you didn't make a mistake and they are just widely accepted amongst Seahawks fans instead?I'm thinking if they have the Seahawks #1 then they are not just outside looking in, they are in outer space.
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Buffaloes
Footballguy
they are pretty popular and have been cited around here a bit. that said, is there a cliff's notes version on how their analysis works?
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drummer
Footballguy
DET HC Jim Schwartz used to collaborate with FO's Aaron Schatz years ago. For advanced stats, it's a pretty well respected site. One 49er stat guy in their front office checks it out often.ETA: Danny Tuccito is a guy I know who is one of their assistant editors. He puts out some real solid analysis as well.
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MaxThreshold
Footballguy
Not exactly a glowing endorsement for them.
drummer
Footballguy
Yeah, but we're talking stats, not coaching. I think Schwartz was doing that FO stuff before he was HC of DET obviously. Parag Marathe of the 49ers is also into that kind of stuff, and if Mike Nolan hadn't had a PowerPoint presentation that knocked 49er owner John York's socks off, Schwartz might have been the 49er HC hired instead, with Marathe as GM.Not exactly a glowing endorsement for them.
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Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
The FootballOutsiders model doesn't have DEN, NE, and SEA as the best teams in NFL history, it has them as 3 of the 11 best teams of the past 21 years.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Colts are 25th due to how they lose and who they beat and how they beat those teams. They won a bunch of close games with a lot of the wins not being against very impressive teams and in their losses they were blown out.
I looked at a few different power ratings sites this morning to fill out a playoff bracket thingy. Of the ones I looked at (including these, these, these (both ELO score and Pure Points), and these), I averaged them together and the top five teams were:1. New England
2. Seattle
3. Denver
4. San Francisco
5. Green Bay
So it doesn't seem all that unusual to have those as the top three teams.
Edit: I didn't catch the "in NFL history" part of your post. I thought you were just talking about this year. Never mind.
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You should check out their site. They do some good work over there. (Which doesn't mean that you should agree with all of it, of course.)
packseasontix
Footballguy
Ya I like their rankings normally to give you an idea of where teams are but something is off when your talking about these teams as tops, even in the last 21 years.
JerseyPaul
Footballguy
If you are a blackjack card counter and the deck is extremely favorable you bet the max. There is no guarantee you are going to win that hand, but over time you'll come out ahead.Having a team appropriately rated as #1 is not a guarantee, just a more than likely chance they will win. That's why they play the games.
5 digit know nothing
Footballguy
FWIW (on average) each of the links MT lists has about a 7 point differential between SEA and WAS and none of them list WAS ahead of SEA.'Maurile Tremblay said:
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Lovie Smith should have printed this out and stuck it his wallet.
Umm, basically everyone had Green Bay as the #1 team in the regular season last year.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Portis 26
Madden Freak
I don't know how their model has been constructed but it is overvaluing blowouts, it is Seattle's blowouts that has them so highly ranked.
By the same token, historic teams that racked up a lot of wins with great D and controlling the ball are going to be under-rated by this model because they won't be putting up a tons of points.
By the same token, historic teams that racked up a lot of wins with great D and controlling the ball are going to be under-rated by this model because they won't be putting up a tons of points.
butcher boy
Footballguy
The last five years, the Superbowl champ finished 12th, 4th, 6th, 4th, and 14th in final DVOA. I don't see how this is any more a predictor of playoff success as any other power ranking.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Those numbers are not a predictor of who will win the Superbowl. They do have odds though: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
The Comedian
Footballguy
You don't know how they calculate this, but you know why they're calculated wrong?'Portis 26 said:
Maybe you should read about how it's constructed. It doesn't take blowout scores into account at all.
The Comedian
Footballguy
It's not a predictor of playoff success, nor does it purport to be.'butcher boy said:
butcher boy
Footballguy
What does it purport to be?
I always thought any type of power ranking was a tool to predict future success.
I always thought any type of power ranking was a tool to predict future success.
The Comedian
Footballguy
Maybe learn about something before you criticize it.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
he's right.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Crack analysis here. Do you have a newsletter?
sho nuff
Footballguy
Dynamite drop in Monty...that broadcast school has really paid off.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Beats working in a Junior High cafeteria, Cletis.
sho nuff
Footballguy
At least I threw in a quote from Major League...
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Why are people hung up on whether or not DVOA predicts the Super Bowl winner? There is too much randomness that goes into the outcome of any individual game. Far more interesting is the extent to which DVOA predicts playoff berths or 1st round byes. Beyond that, each step gets more impacted by variance.....
butcher boy
Footballguy
As a niner fan I think I'd rather have had the home game vs the Hawks.'BusterTBronco said:
fatness
Footballguy
And they were a horrible replacement ref call away from losing the Green Bay game and not making the playoffs. There went your point.
For the life of me I still can't figure out why people keep calling that a horrible call when I've looked at replays and close up's and still can't figure out who should have been awarded the catch but actually lean towards it being he correct call. I've mean we've had no doubt about it bad calls in throughout the history of the game, that was not one of them. That was the media who had been just bursting at the seams waiting to pounce on the first controversial call and so they could make the replacement refs a story but now everyone just parrots it like fact. Carry on.For what it's worth I'm a Steeler fan so no personal bias or love for the Seahawks but I thought they entered the playoffs as the best team in the NFL. I had them just slightly ahead of the 49'ers due mainly to Justin Smith's impact on the defense and had seen more of Wilson than Kapernick to trust him a little more. In my playoff scenario I did have them losing to SF but that was due to homefield. Fact is they did not make it but just because they lost a game I don't think it necessarily makes anyone who considered them the best team or one of the best teams in the league wrong. I thought they outplayed Atlanta but they lost, anyone can lose any week but I don't think it proves anything about the kind of team anyone was over the regular season.
Nope, they made the playoffs with or without the Green Bay game.
Riversco
Footballguy
Hard to say the Seahawks flopped in the postseason. They won their first game, but lost their top pass rusher to injury in the process. They weren't the same defense in the Falcons game, and it showed as they couldn't generate pressure on Ryan without blitzing. Seahawks had a critical injury at the worst time. I think the worst injury a team could suffer outside of losing your QB is losing your top pass rusher. Quarterbacking and getting pressure on the QB are probably the two most important aspects of a football team.
CalBear
Footballguy
FootballOutsiders loves inventing statistics but they don't really understand them. Playoff seed has been a better predictor of Super Bowl pairings than DVOA since 2005. DVOA performed better than seeding for 2005 Pittsburgh, 2008 Pittsburgh, 2010 Green Bay. That's it. Playoff seeding performed better for 2006 Indy, 2006 Chicago, 2007 NYG, 2008 Arizona, 2009 Indy, 2009 New Orleans, 2011 NYG, so more than twice as many times. (The rest were pushes).
Ironically, a big part of the reason that the Seahawks won their first game was that the QB of the opposing team was injured. RG3 played, but he shouldn't have been in the game after the first quarter.Not saying that the Seahawks didn't win legit -- they did. But you can't just say they won the first game pure but lost the second game only due to injury. Injuries helped them one game and hurt them the next...that's how the ball bounces in the NFL and it happens to everyone.
PS...this is not to say that the Seahawks weren't legit or didn't have a good year...in fact, they should be happy with this season as it's a lot to build on for next year...
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah whining about injuries is pretty weak in the post season. Every team has injuries. I'd say one of the reasons the Hawks made it as far as they did was because all the key players were relatively healthy.
