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Travdogg's positional rankings from week 14 onward (last update) (1 Viewer)

travdogg

Footballguy
This will be the final update of the season. Thanks everyone who has read, replied, argued and participated in general. Playoff schedules are given extra weight in this update. I'm also working with some unknown injury timelines, so certain guys may appear too high/low due to uncertain return dates.

QB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen (2), playing elite football despite record. Allen is being used more than ever as a runner at the GL.
2. Jalen Hurts (1), seems to be playing banged up so that keeps him below Allen.
3. Dak Prescott (5), my pick for NFL MVP right now. Has 1 game under 24 points since that 49ers debacle back in week 5.
4. CJ Stroud (3), losing Dell hurts, but Texans have a lot of receiving depth. Leading the NFL in passing yards.
Tier 2:
5. Patrick Mahomes (4), QB7 on the season, but I'm not gonna bet against him.
6. Justin Herbert (6), QB5 on the season has petered out a bit in recent weeks, I like his next 3 being indoors a lot, as I think weather really screwed up that NE game with so many drops.
7. Lamar Jackson (7), QB10 on the season, I think he's been really unlucky these last few weeks with pass catchers and himself being tackled at the 1-2 yard line, only for Gus to punch it in. Those tend to even out (see my lack of Gus ranking) and the Ravens schedule could lead to them needing to play more aggressive.
8. Justin Fields (8), 30 rushes the last 2 weeks gives him a high floor, and the passing has been ok when needed. Another guy where lack of rushing TDs feels very fluky. Likely playing for his job this last month.
Tier 3:
9. Brock Purdy (10), QB6 on the season has been much improved with a health Deebo/Trent. Only concern is his efficiency is probably unsustainable, so its tough to love him too much given lack of volume.
10. Tua Tagovailoa (9), QB11 on the season, Tua has been very inconsistent and ceding lots of rushing TD's. He's playing some MVP caliber football, but the fantasy numbers are getting lost to Achane/Mostert.
11. Sam Howell (12), sometimes fantasy QBs are all about the ABC's. Always Be Chasing. Washington's defense might be the worst in the NFL after Young/Sweat trades, so Howell will be seeing all the garbage time, except against the Jets.
12. Josh Dobbs (15), I think the Vikings would be stupid to bench him, and I doubt its really on the table. Schedule is nice and JJ should be back.
Tier 4:
13. Jordan Love (13), the QB8 on the season, his play has begun to match his numbers the last few weeks. Still don't really trust him, and Watson's injury is worrisome, but can't deny effectiveness.
14. Kyler Murray (11), probably would be higher with better/healthier WRs. I think he's shown enough that Arizona isn't in the QB market at all this offseason, not that they ever should have been.
15. Jared Goff (14), QB13 on the season has been pretty middling since week 7. Too many scores going to the running game to trust higher than this.
 
RB
Tier 1:
1. Christian McCaffrey (1), has been what everyone who took him at #1 hoped for, and schedule is ideal other than Ravens game.
2. Kyren Williams (3), basically playing the Todd Gurley role for McVay right now. Was/NO/NYG is a great playoff schedule.
3. Bijan Robinson (7), better late than never I guess. Bijan is averaging 21 touches his last 3 games and has Car/Ind/Chi for the playoffs.
4. Austin Ekeler (2), I apologize in advance, as he's been truly awful the last couple weeks, but he's still got a great role, and a great playoff schedule. He's also quietly playing for a starting job I think, as he's shown some Dalvin Cook in 2022 signs of decline. Betting on workload/matchups here.
Tier 2:
5. De'Von Achane (16), this might be a hot take, but I think Achane is already a top-5 NFL RB. This is very sustainable to me in this offense. Only thing keeping him from tier 1, is Miami's D putting games away early, and them taking it easy on Achane, which they didn't last week, but did earlier in the season.
6. Travis Etienne (10), looks like he's wearing down, and Lawrence injury could derail offense a bit. That Carolina matchup championship week looks phenomenal though.
7. Jahmyr Gibbs (4), splits have been tough to get a read on it Detroit, so I'm treating as still pretty much 50-50, with Gibbs more likely to get receiving and less likely to get GL work. 3 of last 4 are indoors where Gibbs speed may be helpful.
8. Josh Jacobs (6), 24+ touches in 3-4 since McDaniels firing. Hasn't been very efficient with the workload, but workload is often the most important thing for RBs.
9. Rachaad White (13), don't look now, but White has 100 yards or a TD every week since week 7. Another workload winner.
10. Zach Moss (NR), I'm not expecting Taylor back until week 16 at the soonest, and he's likely eased in even then. He hasn't looked as good as he did early in the season, but the workload is elite.
Tier 3:
11. David Montgomery (9), has a TD in every game he's played, except TB where he got hurt in the 2nd qtr. Does nothing in the passing game, which limits ceiling.
12. Alvin Kamara (17), got in the endzone for the 1st time in 5 games last week, though he's still very clearly not option #1 at the GL. Probably is negatively affected if Carr is out, as he's captain checkdown.
13. Tony Pollard (19), the obvious TD regression has happened, but the big plays haven't been there. Tougher schedule going forward.
14. D'Andre Swift (11), didn't seem like his injury was anything serious, playoff schedule is as good as anyone short of Ekeler, but workload concerns are valid, especially Brotherly Shove related.
15. Breece Hall (8), been really carried by checkdowns of late. Feels like he's due for a couple long runs, but offense is arguably NFL's worst.
Tier 4:
16. Saquon Barkley (18), workload has been oddly small the last month, with no games with 20 touches and 2 under 15. Workload is a lot of his appeal, so if its falling, its concerning. Giants schedule is much harder in the playoff weeks than it was earlier on the season.
17. Isiah Pacheco (12), I might be too low on him. I think KC's offense has really missed McKinnon these last few weeks, and while Pacheco has good numbers, I think his snaps will come down a lot upon his return. Schedule is average.
18. Javonte Williams (15), looked to be taking a workhorse role a few weeks ago with 2 straight 20+ carry weeks, but that has cooled off. Honestly, I think Denver should be using McLaughlin more often, but they haven't shown any inclination to do that.
19. Ezekiel Elliott (NR), I think the workhorse role is his the next 2 weeks at least. NE doesn't want the ball in the QBs hands, so 25 inefficient carries is probably on the menu. Pats D hasn't given up over 20 in a month (and it was Miami 5 weeks ago) so no real fear of point chasing scripts.
Tier 5:
20. Raheem Mostert (21), TD dependent with Achane back, but in NFL's best offense. I'm clearly betting more on Achane.
21. Derrick Henry (22), still looks like one of the top RBs in the NFL to me, and despite age, I think he should be the most heavily sought after RB in the offseason. He's been matchup dependent as Titans have a lot of point chasing scripts, and could be chasing every week remaining with Mia/Hou/Sea/Hou left.
22. Kenneth Walker (28), not sure about his timeline, but Ten/Pit is a nice last 2 weeks if he's playing.
23. Joe Mixon (25), I'm choosing to believe the Jags/Bengals game was more about the Jags than anything else, and I think the Bengals offense is still gonna be pretty rough. Schedule is average. TD dependent.
24. James Conner (26), maybe the worst playoff schedule with SF/Chi/Phi. Also comes off the field in point chase mode. Steelers were perfect game script.
25. James Cook (27), 20+ touches in 2 games since Dorsey firing, Still no GL work though.
26. Jaylen Warren (23), hasn't passed Najee despite Canada firing. His big-play ability pushes him above Najee for me, but this is a horrible offense that might be relying on Trubisky for a few weeks.
27. Chuba Hubbard (30), 25 carries in 1st game post-Reich. Could be sticky, could not, but schedule is ok, and maybe offense is only bad and not horrific?
28. Antonio Gibson (NR), expecting Robinson to be out a few weeks. Washington is in chase mode basically every week which is good news for Gibson.
29. Jerome Ford (29), has ended up in basically a 50-50 split with Hunt. Much like in Pittsburgh, I prefer the more explosive guy.
30. Najee Harris (NR), been ahead of Warren despite thought process being otherwise.

Dropped off: Jonathan Taylor (5), 3-5 week timeline means week 16 to week 18. I don't see them rushing him unless Moss goes down. Rhamondre Stevenson (15), not expecting to see him again off a HAS. Devin Singletary (20), back to a pretty even split with Pierce. Brian Robinson (24), never like hamstring injuries. Washington has nothing to play for, and wouldn't be shocked if he got shut down, at the very least week 15 seems unlikely.
 
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WR
Tier 1:
1. Tyreek Hill (1), OPOY should be all his.
2. Justin Jefferson (2), expecting him to immediately hit the ground running following long layoff that feels like was 2-3 weeks longer than it needed to be.
3. CeeDee Lamb (4), has looked like GB Adams after slow start.
4. Keenan Allen (3), at least 9 targets in all but 1 game, is the straw that stirs the drink on offense.
5. AJ Brown (5), has come back to earth after hot stretch, but has great playoff schedule.
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown (6), matchup proof star only saw lack of targets last week due to LaPorta matchup, and giant lead.
Tier 2:
7. Stefon Diggs (7), hasn't topped 100 yards since week 6, but feels like he could be WR1 overall in any given week. Schedule is average, and could see increased targets if Knox is back as that leads to fewer 3-wide sets.
8. Mike Evans (9), been on fire with a TD in 6 of last 7. Has clearly left Godwin in the dust.
9. Nico Collins (22), Dell injury could make Collins a league winner. I honestly worry I'm being conservative here, as there is an AJ Brown ceiling with Collins, and he gets the Titans twice in the fantasy playoffs.
10. Brandon Aiyuk (10), targets aren't there, but he's the deep guy in the league's most efficient offense. WR11 on the season.
11. Deebo Samuel (19), honestly not sure which SF WR to rank higher. Deebo sees shorter routes, but also gets 3-5 rushes weekly, often in the redzone.
12. Michael Pittman (11), he certainly doesn't have to worry about targets, only Keenan Allen has more. Has been super consistent with Minshew starting, only lack of TDs keeps him out of top-10.
Tier 3:
13. DK Metcalf (21), was kinda due for a blowup week, just a little surprised it was against Dallas. Phi/Ten/Pit playoff schedule is very nice.
14. DeVonta Smith (13), this could be too high with Goedert coming back likely this week, still 99 yards or a TD in 5 straight is tough to fade too far.
15. Ja'Marr Chase (17), ultimately I think the Jags played about the dumbest defense they could against the Bengals, and I'm betting against other teams doing that. Chase is still a solid WR2, and G. Wilson comps were premature, but I think last night will easily be his high-water mark without Burrow.
16. DJ Moore (18), been right back to being a WR2 with upside since Fields came back.
17. Puka Nacua (12), picking up a lot of nicks, and redzone offense runs through Kyren. Still he's a solid WR2, and has a pretty nice playoff schedule for a Rams team that I think is a little dangerous if they get a wildcard.
18. Chris Olave (20), at least 8 targets every game since week 6, though very few endzone trips. Ideally for him, Carr is out.
19. Davante Adams (15), getting 10 targets a game since McDaniels firing, he looks like he's just a step slower this season, but still capable of going off in any given week. Floor might be a little low with O'Connell.
20. Jaylen Waddle (14), quietly been a bit of a bust, and has an awful playoff schedule, yet can only fade the #2 in the best overall offense so far. Averaging 8 targets a game since week 8.
Tier 4:
21. DeAndre Hopkins (35), he's the 1st and 2nd reads for Will Levis. Had an amazing 207 air yards last week, and the Titans are likely point chasing the rest of the season.
22. Calvin Ridley (23), Lawrence getting hurt is probably bad, Kirk getting hurt is probably good. Another what might have been week, as he had a 60+ yard TD that Lawrence grossly underthrew, and then a had a 40+ yard catch called back by a meh hold. Ultimately, boom/bust WR2 sounds right to me. TB/Car last 2 weeks is appealing.
23. Adam Thielen (33), feels like the last 2 weeks are a bit of a mirage, as the target share is still just under 30% over the last month. No upside, but I think he's still mostly reliable.
24. Garrett Wilson (24), Tim Boyle was predictably not better than Zach Wilson. Maybe Seimian will be (he's at least NFL caliber) but maybe they go back to Zach. Wilson sees an Allen-esq workload, but Jets offense is the NFL's worst. Middling schedule remaining.
25. Cooper Kupp (16), this feels too low given his playoff schedule, and maybe his ankle gets better by then, but he hasn't topped 48 yards since week 6, and Kyren takes most of the TDs.
Tier 5:
26. Courtland Sutton (26), got his almost weekly TD, but has 5 or fewer catches in all but 3 games. Schedule is nice, but feels like the TD jig could be up at any moment.
27. Jayden Reed (34), down week last week, but now Watson looks like he could be out for a while again, and Reed is the #1 to me. Was having a nice 6 week run until last week.
28. Rashee Rice (38), 16 catches the last 2 weeks has him moving up, but he's still a little gadgety to me.
29. Zay Flowers (25), had his best game of the season in his 1st game without Andrews. This could be a little low, but he's peaked at 78 yards this season, and I think he's still a little boom/bust.
30. Diontae Johnson (30), not sure losing Pickett really hurts him, as he seems like Trubisky's favorite target. Hasn't topped 50 yards in a month though, as Steelers have doubled down on run 1st offense.
31. Terry McLaurin (28), coming off goosegg, playoff schedule is also pretty bad. Ok WR3, but a guy I'm looking for reasons to not use.
Tier 6:
32. Noah Brown (NR), egged against Denver, somewhat concerning given how early Dell went down, but saw 80%+ routes. Very boom/bust but in the right offense for that too work. Likely #3 target after Collins/Schultz.
33. Tyler Lockett (37), looks like the same guy he's always been on tape, just isn't putting up points. Maybe he's due now that DK blew up?
34. Hollywood Brown (29), much needed bye week for his heel injury. Chi/Phi is a nice last 2 weeks, but he's tough to trust.
35. Drake London (39), nice schedule going forward, hopefully gets back to his 7+ targets weekly he had for a bit. He's a really good WR trapped in a bad passing game. He'd be Pittman in an even average passing game.
36. Josh Downs (31), been playing through a knee injury, and hasn't topped 43 yards since week 8. Still, nice schedule and maybe the Colts pass more without Taylor?
Tier 7:
37. Jordan Addison (32), has a nice schedule, but hasn't scored since Cousins got hurt. 10.9 is his best game in last 4, and likely sees fewer targets with JJ back.
38. George Pickens (NR), coming off his best game in a while, and has a nice playoff schedule. Perhaps Trubisky exceeds expectations?
39. Romeo Doubs (NR), likely becomes main deep threat in Watson's absence. Love has been playing well of late.
40. Brandin Cooks (NR), been coming on a bit during Dak's MVP run here. Has a TD in 5 of last 7.

Dropped off: Tank Dell (8), sucks to see it, and I hope the argument this offseason doesn't turn into "of course he got hurt, look how small he is" that was pretty fluky. Christian Kirk (28), expecting him to go on IR shortly. Sounds like groin or hernia surgery. Amari Cooper (36), not the same without Watson. Chris Godwin (40), the #3 option in a bad offense a this point. Still looks like a good WR, just has no rapport with Mayfield, and Evans obviously does.
 
TE
Tier 1:
1. Travis Kelce (1), still clear TE1 bad hasn't been the huge advantage 1st round drafters hoped for. Only 1 game under 10 points this season, but only 3 over 20.
2. TJ Hockenson (2), likely takes a bit of a hit with JJ back. Ideal schedule.
3. Sam LaPorta (4), has rebounded from slight lull, as he looks to set rookie TE records across the board.
4. George Kittle (3), boom/bust but on pace for 1000-7 just the same. Should be featured more in my opinion, as he's such a mismatch.
5. Trey McBride (6), seeing a 32% target share, has at least 9 points in every game since Kyler came back. I wonder if I'm punishing him because Det/SF are better offenses. Could argue him 2 spots higher for sure.
Tier 2:
6. Dalton Kincaid (5), slight concern about Dawson Knox return. Not that Kincaid will lose the top job, but maybe lose 2-3 targets a week, and those add up quick.
7. Taysom Hill (8), since week 6 he's average 11 carries+targets a week. Truthfully, I think he should just be the Saints starting QB. Defenses are happy whenever he's off the field.
8. Dalton Schultz (9), likely comes back to the #2 role with Dell out.
9. Jake Ferguson (12), 4 TD's in last 6 games. Seems to be about even with Cooks as the #2 during that stretch.
10. Pat Freiermuth (7), he'll miss Pickett the most in my opinion.
Tier 3:
11. Dallas Goedert (14), likely to be back this week, though could be slightly limited. Feels like DeVonta has taken the #2 role, but I can't say its a certainty.
12. Evan Engram (11), finally got a TD only for Lawrence to get hurt. Beathard was the QB during one of Kittle's best seasons, but the Bengals are the worst team against TEs in the NFL so its possible this was just a bit of a matchup one off.
13. David Njoku (10), nice schedule and 39 targets the last 4 weeks.
14. Kyle Pitts (NR), who knows? Lead the team in all receiving categories last week, and had highest snap share of the season.
15. Cole Kmet (13), takes more of a backseat with Fields back, as some short catches become Fields rushes, and Fields is more likely to look at Moore as a 1st read.

Dropped off: Isaiah Likely (15), just missed. 4-40 in 1st full game without Andrews.

Thanks again for reading everyone!
 
Purdy looks every bit like a stud in the making against the Eagles. Wasn't impressed with him before, but his demeanor just looked unflappable.
But then Browning looked every bit as good as Purdy if we're just looking at week 13.
So Purdy is no better than Browning?

j/k niners fans and wingnut, don't shoot me.

Looking at my expectations for the year from preseason, and ignoring any of the obvious breakouts,

Purdy impressed me a bunch this week, i wouldn't be surprised if he's in the top tier convo next season (real NFL rankings, not fantasy). Let's see how he fares in the playoffs.

Of the rookies I was most wrong about Gibbs. He looks the part of a every down back despite his size and everytime I get chance to see his runs he doesn't look as small as his listed size.

That Love-Doubs connection was disappointing, I expected more fantasy output there. I feel like Love outplayed his expectations, but it's not good enough to say he's in the conversation after Favre and Rodgers. But very large shoes to fill, I know.
 
Thanks as always for this input, @travdogg 👍

My starting lineup vs my dad's starting lineup based on these rankings:

QB: (#2) vs (#3)

RB's: (#3, #6, #7) vs (#1, #2, #12*)
*This #12 is #4 YTD and projected #2 ROS on our platform

WR's: (#3, #5) vs (#7, #12)

Hoping we meet in the championship.
 
Purdy looks every bit like a stud in the making against the Eagles. Wasn't impressed with him before, but his demeanor just looked unflappable.
But then Browning looked every bit as good as Purdy if we're just looking at week 13.
So Purdy is no better than Browning?

j/k niners fans and wingnut, don't shoot me.

Looking at my expectations for the year from preseason, and ignoring any of the obvious breakouts,

Purdy impressed me a bunch this week, i wouldn't be surprised if he's in the top tier convo next season (real NFL rankings, not fantasy). Let's see how he fares in the playoffs.

Of the rookies I was most wrong about Gibbs. He looks the part of a every down back despite his size and everytime I get chance to see his runs he doesn't look as small as his listed size.

That Love-Doubs connection was disappointing, I expected more fantasy output there. I feel like Love outplayed his expectations, but it's not good enough to say he's in the conversation after Favre and Rodgers. But very large shoes to fill, I know.
Gibbs shows some real Jamaal Charles flashes at times, and as well as Montgomery is playing, I almost wonder if Gibbs is being underused. I kinda wonder if the Lions are going to run into the same issue the Rams did, where they have all this offensive talent, but Goff keeps them from being truly elite. My concern is this is the ceiling for that offense, unless Gibbs takes on a bigger role, or less likely, Jameson Williams takes a big step forward.

Purdy feels like he could be a top-5 fantasy QB if his offense asked him to do more. Tua and Purdy feel interchangeable to me. They both win with anticipation and accuracy rather than physical traits, I know they both have elite RAC weapons, but QBs sometimes don't get enough credit for setting up those RAC opportunities. Really wish the 49ers would use Kittle more often, he's the best TE in the NFL in my opinion and too often he's just a blocker.

I swear this isn't an insult, but Love reminds me a lot of Baker Mayfield, in the sense of when he's on, he looks really good, and when he's off, he looks like a guy who shouldn't be starting. Obviously, the book isn't as written on Love, but he's VERY streaky even series to series. One thing I do like about Love, is that he's willing to chuck it deep. Too many QBs in my opinion are afraid of risk and end up handicapping their team with high percentage throws for 5-6 yards.
 
Very low on Pacheco. McKinnon is no threat at all to his workload. He's maxed out at 3 rushes in a game this season, which he's done once. Maxed out at 3 receptions. Pacheco has at least 3 receptions in 5 of his last 7 games.

I'm not someone who worries about total snaps, blocking is irrelevant in fantasy. What's your share of the rushing attempts pie? That's what interests me. Pacheco has a firm grasp on it with or without McKinnon around. The receptions are just a bonus.
 
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One thing I do like about Love, is that he's willing to chuck it deep. Too many QBs in my opinion are afraid of risk and end up handicapping their team with high percentage throws for 5-6 yards.

I appreciate the work you did on this and that you always do on this. Appointment reading. That said, Love's willingness to go deep was justifiably in question until this recent spate of chucking it up. Let's hope it sticks and he becomes the gunslinger like Favre (only smarter) and Rodgers (only less diva-ish) were for Green Bay.
 
This thread is very appreciated and thanks for all the hard work you have put in all year. This is a must read for me every week.

One thing I must add: Having Ja'Marr Chase in tier 3 is criminal. He is arguably a top 5 WR in a system that loves to throw and loves to get him the ball. He is in very similar situations as Justin Jefferson with Dobbs and Michael Pittman with Minshew who are both ranked higher.
 
Purdy impressed me a bunch this week, i wouldn't be surprised if he's in the top tier convo next season (real NFL rankings, not fantasy). Let's see how he fares in the playoffs.

Purdy feels like he could be a top-5 fantasy QB if his offense asked him to do more. Tua and Purdy feel interchangeable to me. They both win with anticipation and accuracy rather than physical traits, I know they both have elite RAC weapons, but QBs sometimes don't get enough credit for setting up those RAC opportunities. Really wish the 49ers would use Kittle more often, he's the best TE in the NFL in my opinion and too often he's just a blocker.

Purdy has started the past 17 regular season games for the 49ers, so a full season's worth. The 49ers are 14-3 in those games. Purdy's stat line from those games:
  • Passing: 318/456 (69.7%) for 4283 yards (9.4 YPA), 34 passing TDs, and 8 interceptions
  • Rushing: 142 yards and 3 TDs
Those yards are a bit low for an elite fantasy QB, and will presumably stay there in the near future given the 49ers strong defense and commitment to the running game (30.3 rushing attempts per game).

But the TD production is great. And in real life, his ability to minimize negative plays (31 sacks, 2 fumbles lost, 8 interceptions) is very valuable to the 49ers.

He is currently leading the league this season in all of the following rate metrics: completion percentage, YPA, YPC, AY/A, ANY/A, TD percentage, passing success rate, NFL passer rating, and QBR. I know he has talented offensive teammates and a strong offensive head coach, but that is impressive.

It seems reasonable to think he will get better going forward. It also seems that he remains a bit under the radar considering everything I just posted.
 
I like how I have 3 of your top 4 RBs going forward on one team. :towelwave:
I have 3 of the top 5!
(Waiting for someone to say "I have 3 of the top 6", because I have 3 of the top 7.)
I have 3 of the top 6 RBs.
If one is Ekeker then you don't
😝 We’ll see. I have confidence the player who loves fantasy football will step up for us in the fantasy playoffs as usual. It is Ekeler, CMC and Bijan.
 
I'm not sure that Achane is already a top 5 player, but the Dolphins are clearly going to to design ways to use him in the red zone. Mostert may still get a lot of usage, but teams have really sold out to stop the outside zone that he was gashing teams with earlier in the year (Achane good at this play too). So it is probably a 60/40 where Achane gets the high leverage touches. Predicting Miami fantasy points weekly is a mess outside of Hill.
 

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