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34 minutes ago, Jayrok said:

Bob Iger back running DIS.  

Grabbed a slice of DIS at 101.5

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5 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Grabbed a slice of DIS at 101.5

Same here. :hifive: Holding onto this one for a while.

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Experimental coronavirus treatment leronlimab shows 'very promising' response in some COVID-19 patients

https://www.foxnews.com/science/experimental-coronavirus-treatment-leronlimab-very-promising-response-in-some-covid-19-patients

The experimental coronavirus treatment leronlimab has shown a “very promising” response in COVID-19 patients with mild-to-moderate symptoms, according to developer CytoDyn.

Leronlimab is a viral-entry inhibitor that targets HIV and breast cancer. The drug has also been attracting attention as a potential coronavirus treatment. In a statement released Monday CytoDyn gave an update on over 30 patients COVID-19 patients recently treated with leronlimab in more than 4 hospitals and clinics across the U.S.  Patients have received leronlimab as part of Emergency Investigational New Drug (EINDs) treatments authorized by the FDA and two CytoDyn clinical trials.

“More than 25 patients have been administered leronlimab under EINDs authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA),” the biotech explained. “Rate of response in mild-to-moderate patients under EIND has been very promising with the first five patients treated being removed from oxygen.”

Leronlimab is one of a number of drugs in the spotlight as the world scrambles to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Experts, however, have warned that people should not take drugs unless prescribed by a doctor.

CytoDyn CEO Nader Pourhassan said that the company is working to ramp up its research into leronlimab as a potential coronavirus treatment. “We continue to coordinate around the clock with healthcare professionals across the country to deliver leronlimab to patients and we are in regular contact with the FDA to ensure they receive current patient data,” he said, in the statement. “We are planning to rapidly enroll 75 patients and report the results to the FDA as quickly as possible.”

The Vancouver, Washington-based company said that, as of last week, 12 patients have been treated in a Phase 2 trial for mild-to-moderate COVID-19 indications. However, results are not yet available.  The first site cleared to enroll patients in a Phase 2b/3 trial starts Monday, according to the biotech.

More than 25 hospitals have requested to participate in the company’s trials.

The FDA had already granted CytoDyn a “fast-track” designation for two potential uses of leronlimab – as a combination therapy with other medications for HIV patients and for patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer. Leronlimab blocks CCR5 (C-C motif chemokine receptor 5), a cellular receptor important in HIV infection, tumor metastases, and other diseases, according to CytoDyn. “Leronlimab has completed nine clinical trials in over 800 people, including meeting its primary endpoints in a pivotal Phase 3 trial (leronlimab in combination with standard antiretroviral therapies in HIV-infected treatment-experienced patients),” explained CytoDyn, in the statement.

Separately, the experimental COVID-19 treatment remdesivir is showing early promise in the battle against the coronavirus outbreak, according to a small research study.

The study, which was recently published in the New England Journal of Medicine, was supported by remdesivir developer Gilead Sciences.

As of Monday morning, at least 1.86 million coronavirus cases have been diagnosed worldwide, at least 557,663 of which are in the U.S. The disease has accounted for at least 115,286 deaths around the world, including more than 22,000 people in the U.S.

 

 

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57 minutes ago, Warrior said:

Very likely longer than YOU are currently pricing in. So many people incorrectly assume that their opinion is the opinion of the market and it's rarely true.

Seems like you're projecting here- I've said it before and I'll say it again that I've been doing this long enough and am humble enough to know that no one knows what is going to happen, especially when dealing with things we have never dealt with before. 

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On 2/13/2020 at 2:13 AM, Acrobat7 said:

I mentioned them in this thread a couple of weeks ago. Them and FNV and NEM. 

Has been a really good group of gold investments for me lately. 

Still long in GOLD, FNV and NEM. Check the 1 year charts on those suckers (or any time range). 

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I unfortunately did not take advantage of the run up from the 18k mark the Dow saw a few weeks ago but now I am at 33% cash. I've been following and looking at Disney (DIS) but they aren't opening parks up until May 31st at the earliest. I know earnings are coming out the next couple of weeks so I may buy back in after those come out.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, humpback said:

Seems like you're projecting here- I've said it before and I'll say it again that I've been doing this long enough and am humble enough to know that no one knows what is going to happen, especially when dealing with things we have never dealt with before. 

Agree.....and also the essence of speculation....because this is what investing comes down to, is where everyone forms their opinions. I have no idea what is going to happen. I don’t even think the doctors know. 

But....we are all placing our bets at the casino (market) and placing our futures here. I am surprised at valuations right now. As much as the next person. I do think the markets have really moved higher too fast. I am being very cautious here with the little cash I have left for myself and my clients. Just picking spots and making long term bets....like really long term bets (3, 5,10 years out). 

I think anyone trying to time and short term trade is playing with fire. This is an incredible time we are going through. Nothing like anything we have seen in our lifetime. The economy is shut down......it is truly amazing (and was needed to get this thing under control or attempt too). 

Again I know you are highly experienced like myself. If you can see the forrest through the trees and think out 3,4,5 years from now....you will be rewarded (as you well know). There is going to be some big earnings destruction here and the market seems to have overshot it here short term. I think that is why we all feel strongly about another leg back down. How deep that goes? No one really knows. 

So understand what your goals are, understand your risk tolerance and invest according to that. Take advantage of the volatility. 

Edited by Todem

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I know things have stabilized a little bit lately in the bond market thanks to the Fed but spreads are still pretty wide compared to normal.  Anyone putting some cash to work in high yield, floating rate, or investment grade bonds?  

I added EIFHX Eaton Vance Floating Rate on March 24th and it is up over 10% since then.  Considering adding to high yield or perhaps even muni high yield.

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First time with a partial fill on Fidelity.

Ordered 100 shares of JETS, so far I've had two partial fills of 4 and 13 shares. 

I guess that means I put in at the lowest price possible to get any shares? (For now anyway). 

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24 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

I know things have stabilized a little bit lately in the bond market thanks to the Fed but spreads are still pretty wide compared to normal.  Anyone putting some cash to work in high yield, floating rate, or investment grade bonds?  

I added EIFHX Eaton Vance Floating Rate on March 24th and it is up over 10% since then.  Considering adding to high yield or perhaps even muni high yield.

I'd be very careful. You are fighting with the Fed but think a lot of those ETFs are going to be technical driven in the near term. HYG closed at a 4.6% premium to NAV on Thursday, LQD was 3.2%. So you're paying 4.6% above the market value of the underlying assets just to get in. NAVs do exist in the corporate bond world in normal times due to the illiquidity in corporate bond world but I believe that is a record NAV premium likely due to the Fed possibly buying it. 

IG may be a bit interesting although still likely have downgrade cycles to withstand. Floating rate stuff is most likely a lot of, if not exclusively, junk debt. Probably best if you think near-term rates will eventually go up. 

One ETF to keep an eye on may be ANGL. It is a fallen angel ETF, can take advantage of the dislocation caused by downgrades, usually still buying solid companies like F and most of those companies will likely be eligible for Fed purchase. 

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Well none of us really know where the market is going or what the market is thinking. I think the one thing most of us can agree with is that we're past the point of futures hitting limit up/down every night and multiple days with circuit breakers. Doesn't mean we won't still have an occasional one but that was truly unprecedented days. However, just as we're getting past that volatility, we are hitting earnings season so that will likely keep vol elevated, relatively speaking. 

My personal view is that we'll be like most bear markets. We'll grind lower with the occasional rally but won't truly turn until the economy starts to reopen and we figure out how that reopen occurs. I suspect we'll reopen sooner than later but will be very cautious and include social distancing (i.e. half capacity at places or maybe no fans at sporting events). Easy money on both sides is gone, sure. Whether we retest lows is how long this lasts and what a reopening looks like. I suspect as a hard reopen becomes less likely, things will go lower. 

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9 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

HTZ - Hertz is looking tasty to me.

I just wonder if rental cars are losing out a bit in the future. While they certainly won't go away completely, ride sharing and various other platforms have come on strong. I don't know the companies involved but the idea that you can join a Nationwide network of vehicles, pay a monthly fee and use whatever vehicle (I'd imagine there are limits) has appeal. I think it was ChooseFI or another similar podcast I was hearing about the platform. 

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2 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I just wonder if rental cars are losing out a bit in the future. While they certainly won't go away completely, ride sharing and various other platforms have come on strong. I don't know the companies involved but the idea that you can join a Nationwide network of vehicles, pay a monthly fee and use whatever vehicle (I'd imagine there are limits) has appeal. I think it was ChooseFI or another similar podcast I was hearing about the platform. 

Spent most of last year between 12-17.  Down 7.5% today to 5.80.  Fits the profile of the stocks we've been killing it on.  Much like Kohl's two weeks ago that is not of long term interest to me, I'm looking for a $2 pop and a quick 40% gain.

Pretty much any stock that's had a down day that's trading at 25-40% of it's 2019 value has been good for a 50% return in a 10 day time frame.

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1 minute ago, BassNBrew said:

Spent most of last year between 12-17.  Down 7.5% today to 5.80.  Fits the profile of the stocks we've been killing it on.  Much like Kohl's two weeks ago that is not of long term interest to me, I'm looking for a $2 pop and a quick 40% gain.

Pretty much any stock that's had a down day that's trading at 25-40% of it's 2019 value has been good for a 50% return in a 10 day time frame.

what does their balance sheet look like?  Any risk of BK?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

what does their balance sheet look like?  Any risk of BK?

I'm not the one to ask.  Maybe you can educate me.  https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=HTZ&qsearchterm=&tab=financials

Very much appreciate the feedback guys.  Helps me determine if a stock is an in and out or if I hold a few shares longer term.

eta: I think most every stock I've touch in the last month is at risk for BK.

Edited by BassNBrew
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Just dove into some SYF.  Down 8% today.  Trading at 16.20, was between 30-35 most of last year.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

I'm not the one to ask.  Maybe you can educate me.  https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=HTZ&qsearchterm=&tab=financials

Very much appreciate the feedback guys.  Helps me determine if a stock is an in and out or if I hold a few shares longer term.

eta: I think most every stock I've touch in the last month is at risk for BK.

I use this thread purely for gambling purposes.  95% of my retirement investments (non RE) are in index funds.  I'm sure I own plenty of CAT and AMZN there.

 

Really enjoy the MGM and BLMN trades, this one might work as well.  

Edited by Random

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1 hour ago, Challenge Everything said:

I unfortunately did not take advantage of the run up from the 18k mark the Dow saw a few weeks ago but now I am at 33% cash. I've been following and looking at Disney (DIS) but they aren't opening parks up until May 31st at the earliest. I know earnings are coming out the next couple of weeks so I may buy back in after those come out.

You will still have opportunity to get DIS cheaper IMO.  I'm watching it too but not feeling a rush to buy, especially when it's over $100

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

what does their balance sheet look like?  Any risk of BK?

Their b/s is a mess just in general. Fortunately, I never had to model it out but most of it is vehicle debt (ie debt securitized by the cars they own). So not only do they move on actual results but they move on the value of their used cars. I have been thinking rental cars may be a decent long-term play if people stop flying and can't afford vacations beyond a rental car. But not in a rush to buy any of these.

That said, HTZ unsecured bonds are trading at $50 which is distressed level, implying bankruptcy. Before all this, they were trading at or above par. So the bondholders are at least implying a BK/RX event. 

Edited by sporthenry

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Just now, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

 

You will still have opportunity to get DIS cheaper IMO.  I'm watching it too but not feeling a rush to buy, especially when it's over $100

That's what I've been thinking. 

When it drives under $100, I'll buy and hold. 

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2 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

Their b/s is a mess just in general. Fortunately, I never had to model it out but most of it is vehicle debt (ie debt securitized by the cars they own). So not only do they move on actual results but they move on the value of their used cars. I have been thinking used cars may be a decent long-term play if people stop flying and can't afford vacations beyond a rental car. 

That said, HTZ unsecured bonds are trading at $50 which is distressed level, implying bankruptcy. Before all this, they were trading at or above par. So the bondholders are at least implying a BK/RX event. 

I figured it was something like this...any time a stock price gets that low in a bad economy my first thought is BK risk.

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10 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

Their b/s is a mess just in general. Fortunately, I never had to model it out but most of it is vehicle debt (ie debt securitized by the cars they own). So not only do they move on actual results but they move on the value of their used cars. I have been thinking rental cars may be a decent long-term play if people stop flying and can't afford vacations beyond a rental car. But not in a rush to buy any of these.

That said, HTZ unsecured bonds are trading at $50 which is distressed level, implying bankruptcy. Before all this, they were trading at or above par. So the bondholders are at least implying a BK/RX event. 

Thank you.  I'll exit this quickly tomorrow.

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If I don’t catch corona I’m gonna name my yacht The Amazonian 

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If I do catch corona, I’ll name my ventilator that 

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2 hours ago, Todem said:

Agree.....and also the essence of speculation....because this is what investing comes down to, is where everyone forms their opinions. I have no idea what is going to happen. I don’t even think the doctors know. 

But....we are all placing our bets at the casino (market) and placing our futures here. I am surprised at valuations right now. As much as the next person. I do think the markets have really moved higher too fast. I am being very cautious here with the little cash I have left for myself and my clients. Just picking spots and making long term bets....like really long term bets (3, 5,10 years out). 

I think anyone trying to time and short term trade is playing with fire. This is an incredible time we are going through. Nothing like anything we have seen in our lifetime. The economy is shut down......it is truly amazing (and was needed to get this thing under control or attempt too). 

Again I know you are highly experienced like myself. If you can see the forrest through the trees and think out 3,4,5 years from now....you will be rewarded (as you well know). There is going to be some big earnings destruction here and the market seems to have overshot it here short term. I think that is why we all feel strongly about another leg back down. How deep that goes? No one really knows. 

So understand what your goals are, understand your risk tolerance and invest according to that. Take advantage of the volatility. 

Yep, there's always uncertainty with investing, although I'd argue that right now there is more than ever. Between the virus, monetary policy, debt, oil, politics, etc., so many unprecedented things to try and factor in all at the same time. I know we will eventually defeat the virus, but the economic fallout may be longer lasting.

I worry a little that we have recency bias when thinking it's a lock that we'll be rewarded a few years from now. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the 2020's end up more like the 2000's than the 2010's. The run up since the great recession has been remarkable, I think we've been conditioned to just "buy the dip" because things will bounce right back. I hope and think it will again this time, but I can't shake the thought of all of the excess debt and QE that I assume will have to be unwound at some point.

Truly crazy times.

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3 minutes ago, Big League Chew said:

JNUG looks legit lately

1250 to 7 in 4 years?

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9 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I figured it was something like this...any time a stock price gets that low in a bad economy my first thought is BK risk.

Yeah, I mean the BK risk in most of these names are elevated. I just use bond prices as another sanity check in all of this. The interplay between the bond and equity markets are interesting. I don't believe one is necessarily smarter than the other. When they diverge, I've seen the bond market proved right and the equity market proved right. I don't have bloomberg anymore but it'd be an interesting screen to see whose equity has sold off 50% but bonds aren't implying BK or vice versa. 

For example, WYNN is down 60% since Feb, 80% off YTD highs but just ripped off a bond deal at 7.75%. Bond investors look at things differently since their risk is asymmetric to the downside. As a result, they look at things differently than equity guys and may focus on things like recovery value and the like. But at the end of the day, a corporate bond is like selling a put on the company so they should be correlated. 

 

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1 minute ago, BassNBrew said:

1250 to 7 in 4 years?

decaying 2x ETF. They all do that.

 

3 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

So this was at 95 in February?!  And is now at 7?!  What the hell happened?  If it gets anywhere close to where it was, buying into this would be huge for everyone, no?

Why isn't everyone buying this?  This would be like CYDY on major steroids. 

Only chance of that is a reverse split.

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3 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

So this was at 95 in February?!  And is now at 7?!  What the hell happened?  If it gets anywhere close to where it was, buying into this would be huge for everyone, no?

Why isn't everyone buying this?  This would be like CYDY on major steroids. 

Only way it gets back to 95 is from a reverse split, IMO.  These 3x ETFs don't play by the same rules or follow the same line of thinking as common stock 52 week ranges.  

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11 minutes ago, Big League Chew said:

JNUG looks legit lately

$7, looks like a legit time to sell.

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15 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Thank you.  I'll exit this quickly tomorrow.

Your welcome although I don't follow HTZ enough to be that smart. I know the equity has been dead money for a few years so could be upside from that. I also don't know what their liabilities look like in terms of timing. Because they have so much leverage, the equity is likely to be higher beta on these things so if things recover, could easily double or triple. But when bonds are trading at $50, if you assume a below market recovery of $20 and upside of $100, I'd probably rather invest in the bonds with that risk profile (although could be some easter eggs in the debt). Just with all those moving parts, that is why I never spent a ton of time on the name. 

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Nibbled a bit of DAL today.  Between the Buffet selloff(potential purchase) and the looming bailout, I'm looking for an upswing soon...

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JPM and WFC report earnings in the morning. Should be bad. Market should rally 5%.

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On 4/10/2020 at 4:46 PM, sporthenry said:

AMC hiring bankruptcy lawyers. Hope nobody tried to catch that falling knife although can probably still get out. CNK isn't nearly as leveraged so could be interesting if they get dragged down with AMC but still don't love theaters.  

https://nypost.com/2020/04/10/amc-theaters-may-hire-bankruptcy-law-firm-amid-coronavirus-shutdown/

Down 20% today. They're not gonna make it.

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On 4/4/2020 at 2:39 PM, caustic said:

I’m guessing this one: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1245720677660925952?s=20

Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!

well, Trump was wrong.  They agreed to 10 million barrels (sort of) and oil prices are flat.  Not exactly “GREAT”.  They are out of room to cut and running out of storage.  I am still short oil.   

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Gambling on a market rise rest of week.  Bought some DAL, MGM and BLMN in equal parts.

be a quick hold other than if this proves to be my long term MGM starter kit.

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2 minutes ago, GStrot said:

well, Trump was wrong.  They agreed to 10 million barrels (sort of) and oil prices are flat.  Not exactly “GREAT”.  They are out of room to cut and running out of storage.  I am still short oil.   

Maybe they can turn oil into a disinfectant. 

 

1 minute ago, The Ref said:

Gambling on a market rise rest of week.

Did same. Looking for S&P 2930 or so max. 

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3 hours ago, Challenge Everything said:

I unfortunately did not take advantage of the run up from the 18k mark the Dow saw a few weeks ago but now I am at 33% cash. I've been following and looking at Disney (DIS) but they aren't opening parks up until May 31st at the earliest. I know earnings are coming out the next couple of weeks so I may buy back in after those come out.

Is there even ANY chance of this happening?

I could see us soft opening some things by May 31st if everything goes perfectly, but I don't think crowded parks with millions of people sneezing on each other will be a part of that.

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Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

Is there even ANY chance of this happening?

I could see us soft opening some things by May 31st if everything goes perfectly, but I don't think crowded parks with millions of people sneezing on each other will be a part of that.

In France here they have just extended our lockdown to at least May 11 and no events or large gatherings until mid-July at earliest. Disneyland Paris to be closed for quite a while.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Is there even ANY chance of this happening?

I could see us soft opening some things by May 31st if everything goes perfectly, but I don't think crowded parks with millions of people sneezing on each other will be a part of that.

Theme parks? Ha ha ha, dude personaly speaking......I am not heading back to one of those till I know a vaccine is here. The travel and leisure industry is in for a tough year. Very tough. Disney is diversified and has other avenues of revenue and people will go back as early as this year (I simply do not need to take that risk as I have been to all the Orlando theme parks dozens of times in my life already being a Florida resident....and man was it cheap for a long time till this past decade LMAO). 

Strong restaurants will be back hard once stay at home restrictions start rolling off for certain states/cities etc. People are going to flock to eat out.....but there will be long waits and lesser tables initially as we still have social distancing in effect.....again till we have viable treatments and a vaccine by hopefully year end start of 2021. This is going to take a while. No doubt about it. And the market will start realizing this here very soon......very soon. It has over shot short term on the upside. And it of course over reacted hard to the downside. Crazy times.

Edited by Todem

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12 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

Down 20% today. They're not gonna make it.

Yes, AMC is likely filing/restructuring unless the Saudi fund or someone saves them. Did see some people push DIS to bail them out but think it'd be too much anti-trust issues. But they are a victim of over-levering. Tried to buy up too much crap at low rates to grow the business. Just a cautionary tale of just because AMC is bigger, doesn't mean they'll be the winner in all of this. 

If they drag CNK or NCMI down enough, it could get interesting. While AMCs won't go away because of a filing, long-term viability really rest in DIS' hands. Iger coming back aboard may help them but if they go direct to consumer or cut the window, could be screwed. But DIS has seen the value of the theatrical window so who knows. 

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I had gotten to about 40% cash again.  Moved 15% into the market today in blmn, tdoc, dgx, car, dfs, syf, htz, wh, adma, alt, vbiv, dis, tsn, cat.  Sold off about 10% in the form of TZA and AMZN.  The bolded are long term holdings, the others i will exit with any significant pop.

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

If I do catch corona, I’ll name my ventilator that yacht Amazonian Lebronlimade

 

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1 hour ago, Don Hutson said:

CytoDyn just brought on Scott Kelly not the astronaut to be Chief Medical Officer and Head of Business Development.  Maybe he'll be taking over some of Nader's responsibilities.  Nader is clearly in over his head in a lot of areas especially on the business side.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cytodyn-appoints-scott-kelly-m-100010231.html

Nice, given he is currently chairman of the board he's pretty close to the product, I'm guessing he's not leaving his other salaried roles unless he feels good about the upside here.

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Posted (edited)

There are Covid-affected stocks that are good short term investments and good long term investments but not good in the middle.  Delta could jump 20%-30% in a matter of days if the market decides that the airline industry is ready for a rebound.  But the airline's Covid woes are not done.  Flights will be extremely low until there is a vaccine.  Next winter could have a shutdown of flights similar to the shutdown we are currently experiencing.  And next winter's shutdown(s) could last longer. 

But post-vaccine, demand is going to explode for airline travel and Delta will lead against a thinned-out competition.  Airlines do very well during times of demand because they can double or triple their prices and their flights will still be full.  So I've bought some Delta that I plan on unloading as soon as it pops which is hopefully going to happen this week.  I will reinvest in Delta in March of 2021 when a vaccine is on the horizon.

Edited by Don Hutson

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