kevzilla
Footballguy
It's still showing me as having pending activity from the TVIX I bought at the close yesterday.
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Stock Thread (64 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Jayrok
Footballguy
I think it has more to do with shorts with another attack. Heard Gilead has suspended a covid 19 trial in China of its drug, remdesivir. They claim that China is under control and, essentially, they couldn't find patients to add. huh?
Best thing for CytoDyn is to get on the NAZ exchange. As GM noted earlier, OTC stocks are short infested waters. Large swings aren't uncommon.
I imagine a lot of new buyers are due to covid applications, but most of us here got in (thanks, Chet) because of the HIV and cancer treatments. Even if the news from covid trials weren't all that great, I'd still be interested in staying long because of why I entered in the first place. If the drug didn't get approval for covid, the stock price would probably fall to below a buck. Of course we'd hate to see that happen, but a silver lining would be it would provide a nice entry point and/or point to add more shares at a low price.
The CEO isn't helping to instill confidence but hopefully the positive results will eventually reach mainstream national media outlets. Leningrab is helping patients. Just not many know it I guess.
Rita Wilson (Hanks' wife) said she experienced severe side effects from taking the chloroquine malaria drug that the president has been pimping for the last month. Said she felt completely nauseous and suffered from vertigo. That drug and Gilead's drug remdesivir are the only ones I've heard of repeatedly on mainstream news. There are been local broadcast affiliates around the country and articles here and there mentioning CYDY's drug but it just seems it isn't getting major exposure. Maybe they don't have enough cash to persuade the right people. Gilead is the big pharma, not CytoDyn.
Best thing for CytoDyn is to get on the NAZ exchange. As GM noted earlier, OTC stocks are short infested waters. Large swings aren't uncommon.
I imagine a lot of new buyers are due to covid applications, but most of us here got in (thanks, Chet) because of the HIV and cancer treatments. Even if the news from covid trials weren't all that great, I'd still be interested in staying long because of why I entered in the first place. If the drug didn't get approval for covid, the stock price would probably fall to below a buck. Of course we'd hate to see that happen, but a silver lining would be it would provide a nice entry point and/or point to add more shares at a low price.
The CEO isn't helping to instill confidence but hopefully the positive results will eventually reach mainstream national media outlets. Leningrab is helping patients. Just not many know it I guess.
Rita Wilson (Hanks' wife) said she experienced severe side effects from taking the chloroquine malaria drug that the president has been pimping for the last month. Said she felt completely nauseous and suffered from vertigo. That drug and Gilead's drug remdesivir are the only ones I've heard of repeatedly on mainstream news. There are been local broadcast affiliates around the country and articles here and there mentioning CYDY's drug but it just seems it isn't getting major exposure. Maybe they don't have enough cash to persuade the right people. Gilead is the big pharma, not CytoDyn.
sporthenry
Footballguy
I did appreciate the RBC analyst who said when talking to accounts, they all were wondering who was buying at these levels. Then commented that whoever it was clearly thought the data was going to be better than it was.
I'm generally in this camp myself, but there are places where positive news could come from- the virus numbers could get better, breakthroughs on testing or a vaccine, opening up of sections of the economy, etc. Of course, the news could get worse as well.
The biggest unknown in all of this is how all of the stimulus/printing is going to offset the overall terrible economic conditions. It's the "invisible enemy" vs. the "invisible printing press", we're all just speculating who is going to "win". Sigh.
sporthenry
Footballguy
I'm not an expert with penny stocks and the like but until you have the actual approve product or some other developments, who are the incremental buyers for CYDY. That seems like the tough part with this. I mean the only reason this board even knows about it is because of Chet. Need more Chets to drum up interest elsewhere.
Harris
Footballguy
What do we all think our main man JPow has in store for us tomorrow once new unemployment figures drop? He won last week's round with his new $2.3 trillion stimulus announcement right at the opening bell. How much more will be pumped in at 9:29am tomorrow after another bad unemployment report?
sporthenry
Footballguy
Study wasn't being run by GILD but by China and not having enough enrollment seems like a good problem for us to have. I mean not so much the drug treatment companies but the economy as a whole.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Well the stimulus he announced was just a follow through of the CARES Act. He only used ~43% of the $454bn Congress/Treasury gave him for lending to corporations. The $2.3T comes from leverage so in theory, could add another $3T. I suspect he'll likely let the dust settle from all of this before adding another few T to the fire.
beef
Footballguy
Warrior
Footballguy
Don Hutson
Footballguy
It makes sense for CytoDyn to put 100% of effort and resources into Covid right now. I'm excited. There is still not one negative story about leronlimab's effectiveness or safety. 100% strongly positive. The possibility does exist that someone died while being treated with leronlimab or other bad news and we haven't heard about it. But until I hear something negative, I'm going to believe leronlimab has the potential to become the main Covid treatment in the world over the next month.
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General Malaise
Footballguy
Profit taking and massive short interest at play in CYDY. The velocity in the number of shares short added so quickly in this name is telling. And when you get blood in the streets on days like today, guys who made easy money are the first to bail out.
I'm looking at the 30 underlying stocks of the Dow Jones now since the question was asked. I see a mixed bag. Companies like Boeing (which was in dire straights before this), ExxonMobil, Chevron (do you see a rebound in oil coming?) and Caterpillar might be anchors on this index. And I would imagine Goldman, AMEX, JPMorgan could also struggle in this environment. That's just an semi-educated guess on my part. Retail like Home Depot or apparel like Nike? I would imagine there's some risk in share value, especially to HD.
But gosh, wouldn't Microsoft, Intel, Apple, IBM, Cisco do well with more workers using technology from home? And despite park closures, isn't Disney going to ton it on their streaming service? Coke drinkers are probably loading up on soda, I imagine McDonald's drive-thrus are doing a good business and absent foot traffic, you can lighten your overhead.
What do I know? Dow isn't a very good gauge of the overall market, but as Richard Russell used to preach, "You ask the average guy on the street where the Dow is, he might give you a good ballpark guess. Ask him where the S&P 500 is and I'll be dollars to donuts he won't have the foggiest idea". I'm paraphrasing, but his point is a good one. The Dow is ingrained in all of us, even though it isn't really the best litmus test for how the overall market is doing. It's 30 stocks and it routinely gets a makeover with old, beaten up stocks getting removed and new, shiny stocks being added.
General Malaise for YouTube Stock Scattershooting
I'm looking at the 30 underlying stocks of the Dow Jones now since the question was asked. I see a mixed bag. Companies like Boeing (which was in dire straights before this), ExxonMobil, Chevron (do you see a rebound in oil coming?) and Caterpillar might be anchors on this index. And I would imagine Goldman, AMEX, JPMorgan could also struggle in this environment. That's just an semi-educated guess on my part. Retail like Home Depot or apparel like Nike? I would imagine there's some risk in share value, especially to HD.
But gosh, wouldn't Microsoft, Intel, Apple, IBM, Cisco do well with more workers using technology from home? And despite park closures, isn't Disney going to ton it on their streaming service? Coke drinkers are probably loading up on soda, I imagine McDonald's drive-thrus are doing a good business and absent foot traffic, you can lighten your overhead.
What do I know? Dow isn't a very good gauge of the overall market, but as Richard Russell used to preach, "You ask the average guy on the street where the Dow is, he might give you a good ballpark guess. Ask him where the S&P 500 is and I'll be dollars to donuts he won't have the foggiest idea". I'm paraphrasing, but his point is a good one. The Dow is ingrained in all of us, even though it isn't really the best litmus test for how the overall market is doing. It's 30 stocks and it routinely gets a makeover with old, beaten up stocks getting removed and new, shiny stocks being added.
General Malaise for YouTube Stock Scattershooting
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I had 6 shares in my IRA for years after I worked for them. The funds turned into cash that I rolled over but I got the shares. Should have sold them day 1, but I think the went from worth $300 to under $100. I finally got tired of looking at them and sold them last year.
kevzilla
Footballguy
I'd say the odds of this are <1%. Yes, we're all taking a flyer here, and they have cleared some hurdles like a unicorn champ. But this goal is like homering on ten consecutive pitches.
matuski
Footballguy
Don Hutson
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
There are probably 100 companies chasing this. There will be little profit in it (covid treatment), just name recognition. Only a small number of people will need a covid treatment in the first place.
matuski
Footballguy
That isn't how it works with trials.
We have not seen a single report positive or negative on any clinical or efficacy endpoints. Nor will we until a trial is complete. Paid articles (advertisements), and the brief blurbs on TV are not positive or negative aside from brief runs or dips in the stock price - what will matter are the clinical results.
We can hope (I bought a 1000 shares myself), but the reality is we have no idea and there are a dozen (more) drugs like it trying to get into the covid game. This is flat out a low % gamble, and if you are putting any money into it you can't afford to lose... I would beg you to reconsider.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Why Lowe's over home Depot?
We prefer HD here, although Lowe's is close behind. Lowe's has a lower dividend and lower PE, but otherwise looks similar enough on the surface. Balance sheets look to be in similar situations, again as an amateur and first glance, although HD is quite a bit larger.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I don't think the delay is due primarily to their focus or lack thereof. I think many of these are getting delayed because people are avoiding hospitals/doctors and hospitals/doctors are overwhelmed dealing with Covid.
The Iguana
Footballguy
that was the first thing I bought when I opened an account a few weeks ago. Everyone was talking HD but Lowes was about 1/2 the price per share and I only had some "playing around money" so I could get more shares of lowes. It went up almost $30 a share and I only wish I had been more aggressive when starting to play around. Thought I was a genius at this game or something!
The Iguana
Footballguy
actually cydy might have been the first buy... not sure.
Jayrok
Footballguy
I've been adding Lowe's since March's lows. HD is a great company but I agree that Lowe's isn't far behind. I chose LOW because it was half the price of HD. I have a Lowe's nearby but no HD. I like supporting them as I'm in there often. Came to personal preference but I believe that $85-95 is a good price for LOW. $78 would be better!
sporthenry
Footballguy
I just think that is a factor of that is one of the few places people can go out and shop. How much are they buying? I assume people are doing a lot of odds and ends around the house but I can't imagine that is what really drives LOW's bottom line. I would assume the higher margin, more expensive stuff won't move due to economic uncertainty and most professional remodelings are likely on hold. Just looking at 10K, they don't really lay out customer base but how much of their customers are contractors and professionals? I never looked into the home improvement guys much but I presume they sort of go the way of the housing market. I know there is a case to be made that when people aren't buying or selling, they'll put money into the house but the rational economic actor in me thinks that is only if you think you can get a return on it which seems uncertain now. At the end of the day, still a good amount of discretionary spending involved with these stores during a recession and economic uncertainty. And trades at 17x trailing PE. That PE is half of what it was last year but looking at this, 17x doesn't seem like such a bargain.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/LOW/lowes/pe-ratio
chet
Footballguy
Not selling. Being patient and waiting news that Nadar has promised. It's now about execution IMO.
I will say that they need to uplist yesterday.
chet
Footballguy
Not to pick on you Jayrok, but this is a major pet peeve of mine and it's been stated so many times in this thread.
LOW is $95.30 an HD is $199.75, so yes LOW shares are half that of HD.
HOWEVER, you cannot value stocks in this manner. A stocks price is calculated roughly by the approximation of future earnings, thus the reason PE ratio is often used to COMPARE stock prices.
LOW PE ratio is roughly 17.36
HD PE ratio is roughly 19.50
This is nowhere near half the price of the stock in a comparative manner. The only way you can effectively judge a stocks price is with earnings. We have no idea what earnings are going to be the rest of this year. Most companies are cutting guidance altogether.
I'm not knocking anyone on buying Lowe's. I do almost all of my home goods shopping at Lowe's, but I own HD stock as I believe they will make more money in the future.
eta
my pet peeve is when people say that since the cost of the stock is lower it's a better buy. That is simply not true. If the stock or restaurant A is $5.00 and the stock of restaurant B is $10.00 and someone says restaurant A is better because it's cheaper, this is beyond stupid. It's been said in this thread more than a few times already. Without full information there is simply no way to say which stock is indeed cheaper. And FWIW, I think some restaurant and hotel stocks are going to be going to zero.
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Warrior
Footballguy
This. "Lowes was half the price of HD" was posted twice within 3 comments. This shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the most basic concepts of how stocks are priced. Please, people...do a little research before jumping into the pool.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I'll actually agree with that, if looking for a place to live.Because Charlotte is better than Atlanta?
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
F'ing Jayrok, amirite?
Jayrok
Footballguy
No worries GB. I never said Lowe's was a better buy. It's just why I chose it over HD. My cash allocation allowed me to buy more LOW than it would HD. That's all.
HD all time high was Feb, $247. LOW all time high was Feb, $127. HD more valuable per share for sure. But I can own twice as many shares of LOW, which is also a good company.
Just as a snapshot, 4000 shares at $127 is better than 2000 shares at $247.
I get it that HD is the better buy for the value of a single share. I just chose to use my allocation to buy more shares of LOW. To each their own. But I never said LOW was the better buy. It fit better into what I plan to do.
-OZ-
Footballguy
chet
Footballguy
Same level of stupidity as saying, “This is COVID-19, not COVID-1, folks!”I remember a journalist a year or two ago ranting that it didn't make sense for Tesla to be hundreds of dollars a share while Ford was like eight bucks. The rant was basically "Is tesla really worth fifty times Ford?"
They ended up getting severely roasted, and possibly fired
Jayrok
Footballguy
If you sell at those prices is what I mean by shapshot. I'd rather have 4000 shares of HD.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
There will be some lost business because of a lack of funds from unemployment or job insecurity but there is going to be a ton of business from people with money and/or job security. People who didn't lose salary are saving a lot of money right now. After sitting around super bored watching cat videos for month, a lot of dudes are ready to undertake massive remodeling projects. Boredom is a great motivator. The house remodeling boom will start when strict social distancing ends and continue until a vaccine is discovered.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Am I the only one who barely gives any thought to the number of shares? I care about dollar amount, dividend, PE, future growth...
Jayrok
Footballguy
So HD is Tesla here and LOW is... Ford? alright then.I remember a journalist a year or two ago ranting that it didn't make sense for Tesla to be hundreds of dollars a share while Ford was like eight bucks. The rant was basically "Is tesla really worth fifty times Ford?"
They ended up getting severely roasted, and possibly fired
The Iguana
Footballguy
For the record, mine really had little to do with lowes being "better". It was just it was more affordable. Literally, I took a bonus check that I got mid March and deposited some of it in a Fidelity account. Was done as a means to entertain myself more than anything. Literally the equivalent of taking it to the local casino and playing poker - which is closed. This is not me trying to fund my retirement. So, I had a limited amount in there. When I deposited the money, I could by X shares of HD for stock for ~155 or I could by 2X shares of Lowes for like 69.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I'm sitting here getting annoyed by my neighbors who decided to take this time to get their roof fixed.
We put in new HVAC and have other home maintenance stuff planned.
Everyone we know is doing something with their home.
