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Still sitting on all bonds/cash to start the year. I was thrilled when the market touched 1360ish, PO'ed when it hit 1440ish but all and all I have slept well the past two months.

 
What's the feeling here to start the year....anyone looking to buy if we see a pullback if "Fiscal Cliff" isnt resolved tonight?

 
'GoBirds said:
What's the feeling here to start the year....anyone looking to buy if we see a pullback if "Fiscal Cliff" isnt resolved tonight?
Click to expand...
Time to buy was a week ago. Cliff will be resolved tonight, and the market will continue to run tomorrow. Going to be a great 2013 in the markets. Enjoy the ride!
 
'Dentist said:
'St. Louis Bob said:
Pretty good 2012
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is this on all your money? just your actively managed money? retirement money? I'm definitely glad to see you performed well, but if it was your active managed money you'd have been better off just buying SPY at the beginning of the year and never making a single trade.
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Just my 401k,so limited options. Those numbers don't include dividends either for some reason. I have a financial planner manage my IRA and then of course there's my brokerage account with individual stocks.
 
'St. Louis Bob said:
'Dentist said:
'St. Louis Bob said:
Pretty good 2012
Click to expand...
is this on all your money? just your actively managed money? retirement money? I'm definitely glad to see you performed well, but if it was your active managed money you'd have been better off just buying SPY at the beginning of the year and never making a single trade.
Click to expand...
Just my 401k,so limited options. Those numbers don't include dividends either for some reason. I have a financial planner manage my IRA and then of course there's my brokerage account with individual stocks.
Click to expand...
how did your brokerage account do for the year?

i hear ya on the 401k.. limited options. mine is just full of mostly index and an active international fund.

Why do you have a financial planner for your IRA since you're pretty well versed in the market? Is that the lions share of your money? just seems like someone obviously market gifted like you could either actively manage it better, or just pick a bunch of low cost index ETFs and rebalance occasionally

 
'Dentist said:
'St. Louis Bob said:
'Dentist said:
'St. Louis Bob said:
Pretty good 2012
Click to expand...
is this on all your money? just your actively managed money? retirement money? I'm definitely glad to see you performed well, but if it was your active managed money you'd have been better off just buying SPY at the beginning of the year and never making a single trade.
Click to expand...
Just my 401k,so limited options. Those numbers don't include dividends either for some reason. I have a financial planner manage my IRA and then of course there's my brokerage account with individual stocks.
Click to expand...
how did your brokerage account do for the year?

i hear ya on the 401k.. limited options. mine is just full of mostly index and an active international fund.

Why do you have a financial planner for your IRA since you're pretty well versed in the market? Is that the lions share of your money? just seems like someone obviously market gifted like you could either actively manage it better, or just pick a bunch of low cost index ETFs and rebalance occasionally
Click to expand...
My brokerage account got hammered because I gambled and lost early in the year on FAZ and TZA. Drastically changed my philosophy since then. Went with a CFP with my IRA because it just became so much money and I didn't want to #### up. I did very well with it though. Not sure what my 2012 YTD return is but I met with him in October and since I started with him in 2003 There has been a 74% return. I haven't given him any more money either so he didn't have the advantage of averaging down other than just not going all in and keeping some money on the sidelines.

 
Put my 401K money in cash in the fall during the Bear trend (based on Siff's PI). Kept it out during the Fiscal Cliff stuff, even when Siff's PI turned Bull (he even said it wasn't a strong Bull). Now, I will look to get that money back in based on the latest Bull trend.

 
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I want to increase foreign exposure now, believing those markets could outperform US because they are farther behind in their recoveries. I’ll probably start buying GXC soon (China ETF). Also looking at RISCX, a small cap Europe fund.

http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/f.aspx?t=RISCX

Anyone have other ideas in this area?

Eta - I bought GXC, but opted to play Europe via VGK instead of the fund.

 
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'Mystery Achiever said:
I want to increase foreign exposure now, believing those markets could outperform US because they are farther behind in their recoveries. I’ll probably start buying GXC soon (China ETF). Also looking at RISCX, a small cap Europe fund.

http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/f.aspx?t=RISCX

Anyone have other ideas in this area?
Click to expand...
This is just my general opinion.What I have found to be most critical to success is entering positions EARLY in their trend.

If we take GXC as an example...in the past year it has gained 18%, but in the past 3 months it has gained 16%. So pretty much all of the past years gains have occurred in the past 3 months. If we accept that gains on a trend do have a limit, we might want to consider that in the case of GXC that we've already seen the majority of gains on this particular trend. That's not to say GXC isn't going higher. The trend is still quite bullish. But rather the longer you wait to enter into a new bull trend the less your profit potential is, and the greater your chance of loss.

The good news about GXC is that it would be considered a strong etf in a strong sector, and the overall market trend right now is bullish. So you do have that going for you. In no way am I suggesting you do not go long GXC. Rather that by taking on the position after it has been in an extended trend will require more vigilance on your part, because in no way can you allow a winner to become a loser.

Here's a chart

GXC Chart

 
'siffoin said:
If we take GXC as an example...in the past year it has gained 18%, but in the past 3 months it has gained 16%. So pretty much all of the past years gains have occurred in the past 3 months. If we accept that gains on a trend do have a limit, we might want to consider that in the case of GXC that we've already seen the majority of gains on this particular trend. That's not to say GXC isn't going higher. The trend is still quite bullish. But rather the longer you wait to enter into a new bull trend the less your profit potential is, and the greater your chance of loss.

The good news about GXC is that it would be considered a strong etf in a strong sector, and the overall market trend right now is bullish. So you do have that going for you. In no way am I suggesting you do not go long GXC. Rather that by taking on the position after it has been in an extended trend will require more vigilance on your part, because in no way can you allow a winner to become a loser.

Here's a chart

GXC Chart
Click to expand...
Thanks for this! I did drag my feet acting on the rebound in China and am late to the party. But, fundamentally, I believe there is more growth ahead, without expecting a repeat of the 4th quarter . The last couple of days have been strong, so I have been reluctant to enter, as I will inevitably buy the day before a pullback. ;)But I think I have to just start averaging in given the trend. By the way, for anyone looking at this area, I am going with GXC over the better-known FXI because of broader diversification and lower expenses.

 
'Mystery Achiever said:
'siffoin said:
If we take GXC as an example...in the past year it has gained 18%, but in the past 3 months it has gained 16%. So pretty much all of the past years gains have occurred in the past 3 months. If we accept that gains on a trend do have a limit, we might want to consider that in the case of GXC that we've already seen the majority of gains on this particular trend. That's not to say GXC isn't going higher. The trend is still quite bullish. But rather the longer you wait to enter into a new bull trend the less your profit potential is, and the greater your chance of loss.

The good news about GXC is that it would be considered a strong etf in a strong sector, and the overall market trend right now is bullish. So you do have that going for you. In no way am I suggesting you do not go long GXC. Rather that by taking on the position after it has been in an extended trend will require more vigilance on your part, because in no way can you allow a winner to become a loser.

Here's a chart

GXC Chart
Click to expand...
Thanks for this! I did drag my feet acting on the rebound in China and am late to the party. But, fundamentally, I believe there is more growth ahead, without expecting a repeat of the 4th quarter . The last couple of days have been strong, so I have been reluctant to enter, as I will inevitably buy the day before a pullback. ;)But I think I have to just start averaging in given the trend. By the way, for anyone looking at this area, I am going with GXC over the better-known FXI because of broader diversification and lower expenses.
Click to expand...
Might I suggest you examine Emerging Asia. Because China would probably pull these along, and you might be able to enter some at a better point in their trend. As an example I went long VNM on Dec 10th when the PI flipped Bullish- mentioned on Twitter at the time. Here's that chart.VNM Chart

 
'Mystery Achiever said:
I want to increase foreign exposure now, believing those markets could outperform US because they are farther behind in their recoveries. I’ll probably start buying GXC soon (China ETF). Also looking at RISCX, a small cap Europe fund. http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/f.aspx?t=RISCXAnyone have other ideas in this area?
Click to expand...
Emerging Markets have lagged behind developed markets for 3 years now. I agree that they are due to rebound.My concern with the BRIC economies is the political uncertainties they now come with. These countries are no longer in the euphoric growth phase of the 2000's. They now need to deal with rising nationalism, protectionism, corruption, and income inequality. E.G. China just had a major change in leadership. Their new focus is to balance out the income inequality, loosen state control of businesses, and tackle rampant corruption. China is also in a bit of a tiff with the US SEC regarding financial reporting... it seems that quite a few of the financial reports from Chinese companies are outright falsified or have no foundation in reality. I'm at the point where I no longer invest in individual Chinese companies simply because I don't know if their numbers are legit. India and Russia are a corrupt mess. South American countries are threatening to nationalize companies and creating new protectionist laws. The problem is, I'm not quite sure how to factor in all these political risks nor have the time to follow the politics of these countries. Maybe its easier to just pick a high ranked emerging market fund and let them do the DD.
 
'rascal said:
My 401(k) got 15.8% last year.
Click to expand...
what is your age and approximate breakdown in investments?I would expect based on last year that younger people in a high % of stocks or target 2040+ type of funds got similar returns... +15% or so because that's what the S&P 500 did.I would expect older people got closer to 8-10%I had too much dry powder in my 401K last year and only ended up +10.5% (also had one mutual fund that wasn't an index fund severely underperform.)
 
Acme- I generally prefer individual stocks to mutual funds and ETFs, but I agree that EMs are a good choice for them.And foreighn stocks in general, exc. for some of the larger developed markets ones where info is more available/reliable.

 
'Dentist said:
'rascal said:
My 401(k) got 15.8% last year.
Click to expand...
what is your age and approximate breakdown in investments?I would expect based on last year that younger people in a high % of stocks or target 2040+ type of funds got similar returns... +15% or so because that's what the S&P 500 did.I would expect older people got closer to 8-10%I had too much dry powder in my 401K last year and only ended up +10.5% (also had one mutual fund that wasn't an index fund severely underperform.)
Click to expand...
I'm 32 and mine is in a 2050 target retirement fund (hope to retire in ~2040, but wanted a more aggressive plan) thru Thrift Savings Plan.
 
Trying to be more pro-active instead of reactive this year. Mid-30s, outperformed the S&P last year, but not be a lot, in my IRA - but it is mostly a mix between aggressive growth funds and aggressive value funds, with a couple stocks in for fun (less than 2% of the total.) My 401k is brand new, so I expect that might take a little while to see how it is doing, but the allocation is similar to the funds in the IRA for now.

 
Can someone remind me what a black candle signifies in StockCharts? Thanks.http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p67398165114And while I'm here, please join our 2013 Stock Picking Contest.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=674015

 
Any point in holding Uranium One until the deal is completed? It seems like there's little chance it's going up more than a dime or so between now and the 2nd quarter when it's finalized.

 
AMRN and MAKO appear to be good buys at around $8 and $11 respectively.CPRX and ONTY might be worth a shot as they're both rebounding from some pretty sick drops. I bought CPRX too early, so I'm just now back to even, but ONTY is up 15% after just a couple weeks.

 
'Bob Sacamano said:
'St. Louis Bob said:
'St. Louis Bob said:
'Bob Sacamano said:
Any point in holding Uranium One until the deal is completed? It seems like there's little chance it's going up more than a dime or so between now and the 2nd quarter when it's finalized.
Click to expand...
I only need it to go up $0.60 more to be even. :excited:
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Up 13.5% today, Paladin up over 10%. Come on uranium!!!!
Click to expand...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/14/uranium-one-private-idUSL6N0AJ0BA20130114
Click to expand...
Well hell. I need somebody to step up and make another offer, stat.
 
'St. Louis Bob said:
'Bob Sacamano said:
'St. Louis Bob said:
'St. Louis Bob said:
'Bob Sacamano said:
Any point in holding Uranium One until the deal is completed? It seems like there's little chance it's going up more than a dime or so between now and the 2nd quarter when it's finalized.
Click to expand...
I only need it to go up $0.60 more to be even. :excited:
Click to expand...
Up 13.5% today, Paladin up over 10%. Come on uranium!!!!
Click to expand...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/14/uranium-one-private-idUSL6N0AJ0BA20130114
Click to expand...
Well hell. I need somebody to step up and make another offer, stat.
Click to expand...
OK. I'll give you $1/share for yours!
 
'Bob Sacamano said:
'St. Louis Bob said:
'Bob Sacamano said:
'St. Louis Bob said:
'St. Louis Bob said:
'Bob Sacamano said:
Any point in holding Uranium One until the deal is completed? It seems like there's little chance it's going up more than a dime or so between now and the 2nd quarter when it's finalized.
Click to expand...
I only need it to go up $0.60 more to be even. :excited:
Click to expand...
Up 13.5% today, Paladin up over 10%. Come on uranium!!!!
Click to expand...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/14/uranium-one-private-idUSL6N0AJ0BA20130114
Click to expand...
Well hell. I need somebody to step up and make another offer, stat.
Click to expand...
OK. I'll give you $1/share for yours!
Click to expand...
lolA higher offer. Damn it to hell if I end up losing money on this deal.

ETA

The deal includes a non-solicitation covenant, under which Uranium One will not seek other bids,
Click to expand...
Well ####. I guess I'll just hold an hope for the best. :kicksrock:
 
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