What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Is Michael Floyd underrated? (2 Viewers)

ZWK said:
One big concern is that the pie is probably going to be smaller in Arizona this year than it was last year. Palmer had a career year at age 35-36. He is unlikely to repeat the performance at age 36-37, and there is a decent chance of a large dropoff. So we should expect there will be a smaller pie, split 3 ways.

I'm hesitant about reading too much into a 7-game stretch out of a 4-year career, especially when those 7 games were in the middle of a season. The reason to start with week 8 is not because we have any outside information about that being the first time that Floyd was truly healthy, it was because that was the first game where he put up big numbers. And after Floyd's big week 16 game where this 7-game stretch ends, he played another 2.5 games with Palmer & the first team offense (the first half against Seattle where they got stomped and then two playoff games).

If we do decide to throw out the first 7 of the Cardinals' 18 games because we think that Floyd might not have been healthy then, that still leaves 11 games. Brown missed 1 of those 11 games (week 8) and Floyd missed one of them (week 11), which leaves 9 games which Floyd, Brown, and Fitzgerald all played. (That includes week 17 against Seattle and playoff games against tougher-than-usual opponents, but those situations should affect the 3 WRs equally.) Over those 9 games, Floyd had 34% of the receiving yards and 35% of the receiving fantasy points (PPR) that those 3 totaled - just slightly more than a third. Fitz led the way with 36% of the yards and 39% of the fpts, and Brown brought up the rear with 29% of the yards and 26% of the fpts. That's one way to take a first stab at guessing how the pie will be divided this year.
Click to expand...
This is a good point, but it assumes the pie is divided the same.  Arians has already said before that he thinks Floyd is a 1500 yard WR in this league.  He said that last offseason before Floyd got hurt.  I agree that the situation is murky when everyone is healthy, and it's assuming the offense stays relatively the same.  I'm high on Floyd because I felt the torch was starting to pass in the second half, and now Brown's hurt.  Concussions are nothing to mess with... I'm not sure he's ever right again after having headaches now 3 weeks removed from the concussion itself.  That's tremendously concerning to me.

Add in Fitzgerald getting a year older, and the torch passing becomes an even more plausible narrative.  I certainly wouldn't advocate paying WR1-2 prices for Floyd, but you don't really have to either -- you can get him as a WR3 in most cases, and that certainly seems to be how he's valued on the trade market (in my experience at least).  For those prices, I'm in for sure, despite the reasons for skepticism which I'll fully acknowledge exist.

 
If you want to expand the sample size earlier, that's fine too.  I'm not cherry picking games -- I just looked at the second half of the season.  If we want to look at the last 3/4 of the season, from Week 5 on, Floyd posted 50 receptions for 819 yards and 6 TDs in 12 games on 82 targets.  He missed week 1 and almost all of training camp.  I think giving him a pass in Weeks 2-4 to get back up to speed and fully integrated in the offense make some sense to me.  Again, I don't think Arizona should've even boarded the plane in Week 17, so I personally don't believe it should be considered either in projecting what we'd expect moving forward.  Take out the week 17 game, and Floyd's at 49 receptions for 803 yards and 6 TDs in 11 games.  That's still a 71-1168-9 pace, which is absolutely worth the price of admission.  The ride picking up more steam through the end of the regular season gives me more optimism.

 
ZWK said:
There have been plenty of promising first round WRs who turned out to only be pretty good rather than elite. Floyd has now been in the league 4 years and he's played 39 games with Palmer. Some Floyd fans are choosing to focus on only 7 out of those 39 games. (Also, Fitz had more targets & receptions than Floyd even during that 7-game stretch.)
Click to expand...
Eh, it's a matter of opinion how Floyd will do this season.  You mentioned that fitz had more targets during that stretch...how did he do with those targets?  I'll tell you BC I owned both him and Floyd: fitz SUCKED in the second half of the season last year.  He was a fantasy non factor while Floyd was getting FED.  

I like to go with trends.  Fitzgerald is one of the best Wrs to ever play in the NFL but he's older and past his prime.   Floyd emerged in the 2nd half of last year.  He was injured in the first part of the season and then came on very strong and made fitz irrelevant. 

Thems the facts.  This year I loaded up on Floyd wherever I could.  He's hungry.  And he will be fed.  The cards want to know just what they have in him as fitz fades away into the sunset.  Is Floyd a true #1 WR?  This year barring injury we will get our answer. 

 
thehornet said:
If you don't blow up by year 3, most folks banish you. Floyd is a perfect example of that sentiment. 
Click to expand...
I was just reading that there is some evidence to support this idea in this article.

The only thing we can say about the third year is that over half the good wide receivers will breakout out no later than year 3. 
Click to expand...
However I would say Floyd broke out in season two where he had pretty solid numbers.


113


65


1041


16.0


5


91


4.1


65.1


57.5%

I can understand people having some concern about his efficiency numbers, which as a whole look more similar to players like Torry Smith, Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace and so on. However those numbers are greatly affected by Carson Palmer missing most of the 2014 season, where Floyd's catch rate plummeted to 47.5%. This number is about 10% higher with Palmer playing 16 games however and not bad when combined with the high yards per reception numbers. Floyd has a career 8.5 yards per target which is pretty good.

This is also a cause for concern however because if Palmer gets injured, it may be back to sub 50% catch rate and that makes the already somewhat low efficiency worse. Floyd is a better best ball player in this regard compared to head to head formats I think.

Now if Floyd is able to maintain a similar efficiency as last season and his targets increase to something like 130? He could have a pretty monster season. There is some reason to think he will be more involved as well because he was injured for part of last season and healthy now.

If given the choice I still prefer Fitzgerald over Floyd. Because of his consistency and also because I think Fitzgerald is a better overall player, even at his advancing age. I could see some having the perspective that there will be a changing of the guard so to speak, but I don't think that will happen this season.

Floyd is in a contract year I think so from that perspective he may have extra motivation this season. From a long term perspective he may be moving to another team? If he does get a big contract with another team that may mean more targets will come along with it.

I was a bit surprised that Jason Wood drafted Floyd over Fitzgerald in a total points league. I can't say I agree with that, but he may be right.

 
rickyg said:
Eh, it's a matter of opinion how Floyd will do this season.  You mentioned that fitz had more targets during that stretch...how did he do with those targets?  I'll tell you BC I owned both him and Floyd: fitz SUCKED in the second half of the season last year.  He was a fantasy non factor while Floyd was getting FED.  
Click to expand...
I disagree.

Fitzgerald only scored 2 TD in the second half of the season.So if you were playing in a standard scoring league or have yardage thresholds.. I still wouldn't say he sucked, but I could see how you might think so a bit more under those circumstances.

Floyd had four 100 yard games and scored 3 TD over the second half of the season. He also had two games with only one reception and 16 or less yards. 32 receptions.

Fitzgerald had 2 TD one 100 yard game, one 90 yard game, the lowest yardage game was 29 yards, every other game was 41 or more yards, his lowest number of receptions was 3 over that time frame. He had 54 receptions which matters a lot more if you get PPR.

Fitzgerald certainly more consistent even if you don't get PPR.

 
I owned Brown and Floyd in two leagues last year.  I'm drafting Floyd at or higher than ADP this year, with no worries.  I'll take Brown or Fitz below their ADP's, if I need a flier WR.  

 
Biabreakable said:
I disagree.

Fitzgerald only scored 2 TD in the second half of the season.So if you were playing in a standard scoring league or have yardage thresholds.. I still wouldn't say he sucked, but I could see how you might think so a bit more under those circumstances.

Floyd had four 100 yard games and scored 3 TD over the second half of the season. He also had two games with only one reception and 16 or less yards. 32 receptions.

Fitzgerald had 2 TD one 100 yard game, one 90 yard game, the lowest yardage game was 29 yards, every other game was 41 or more yards, his lowest number of receptions was 3 over that time frame. He had 54 receptions which matters a lot more if you get PPR.

Fitzgerald certainly more consistent even if you don't get PPR.
Click to expand...
Dude.  I owned them both.  In 2 separate standard leagues.  Trust me.  My butt hurt every time I started fitz.  It felt just like it did to start Randall Cobb last year in standard sting.  Horrible.  His first half of the season was amazing.  Then he tapered off on the tds and the yards weren't there anymore either.  

 
He's overrated, no underrated. To many mouths to feed and Palmer has no favorites or doesn't appear to. I'll pass where he's going.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Anyone rolling Floyd out tonight?  Does Stanton have any history with Floyd?

He'a been pretty bad all season, saved mainly by a few touchdowns here and there. But for some reason I keep starting him waiting for/thinking things will turn around.

 
The Arizona Republic's Kent Somers believes WR Jaron Brown needs to "play more" at the expense of Michael Floyd.
Floyd has arguably been the least productive receiver in the league through three weeks. Among receivers with at least 20 targets, Floyd's 39.1 percent catch rate ranks dead last. He was credited with one drop in the Week 3 loss to the Bills, but he could have just as easily been charged with three. Floyd also ran a bad fourth-quarter route, leading to a Carson Palmer interception, when the Cardinals were threatening a comeback. Brown has caught 6-of-11 targets for 145 yards (24.2 YPR) and one score on just 85 snaps, mostly playing in garbage time. Sep 27 - 9:15 PM

Source: Kent Somers on Twitter

 
VikingFrog said:
Anyone rolling Floyd out tonight?  Does Stanton have any history with Floyd?

He'a been pretty bad all season, saved mainly by a few touchdowns here and there. But for some reason I keep starting him waiting for/thinking things will turn around.
Click to expand...
I have Floyd, along with Fitzgerald.  I took both thinking it may play out like last year with Fitz starting the year hot and then maybe Floyd would heat up in the 2nd half as a 33 year old Fitz wore down.

But things have not trended well early for Floyd.  He has not gotten a lot of separation so far this year and is not winning in contested situations.  Smokey Brown awoke from the dead last week and Jaron Brown has even outplayed him as noted above.

Add in Stanton, who is terrible, on a short week on the road.

NO Thanks!

 
He has been disappointing.  Not gone how I expected.  Contract year.  Yada yada.  I thought he was finally going to enter the ranks of wr1 or at least high end wr3 like a decker.  

He's in there as my wr3 RT now but only BC its him or Eddie Royal (missed practice yesterday and today) or DGB.  

If I hear royal is probably going to play on Sunday before tonight's game Floyd will be benched.  

Very disappointing.  

 
rickyg said:
Very disappointing.  
Click to expand...
yes...Brown's targets have been increasing and Floyd's decreasing.  It certainly looks like Brown is rising (if not officially on the depth chart) and Floyd is regressing.  Not that I'm wishing for it, but one blow to Brown's noggin and Floyd may become relevant again.  The question is: will he perform and continue with what we are seeing.  He's a hold/what the heck flex

 
Here's how it has broken down in ARI over the past 4 weeks.    


J. Brown


57%


42%


57%


91%


 


4


3


11


16


M. Floyd


95%


80%


90%


45%


 


7


6


11


7


L. Fitz


97%


89%


98%


94%


 


10


11


12


8


Ja. Brown


28%


44%


48%


58%


 


2


2


6


5



I think Jaron Brown becomes the WR3 on this team sooner than later. Floyd has looked beyond terrible.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
SameSongNDance said:
Here's how it has broken down in ARI over the past 4 weeks.    


J. Brown


57%


42%


57%


91%


 


4


3


11


16


M. Floyd


95%


80%


90%


45%


 


7


6


11


7


L. Fitz


97%


89%


98%


94%


 


10


11


12


8


Ja. Brown


28%


44%


48%


58%


 


2


2


6


5



I think Jaron Brown becomes the WR3 on this team sooner than later. Floyd has looked beyond terrible.
Click to expand...
He did have a concussion after the week 3 game, and was questionable much of last week leading up to the week 4 game.  I didn't think he was going to be as involved last week as he had been prior because of that, and he wasn't.  I think he rebounds in his snap count a bit tonight, but likely not into the 90%s. 

 
VikingFrog said:
Anyone rolling Floyd out tonight? 
Click to expand...
I almost have to.  The last 8 months in my dynasty league has seen Calvin retire, Allen tear his ACL, Sammy put on IR, Kevin White put on IR, my ace in the hole Josh Gordon goes to rehab, Cooks is on bye, and Devante Parker will likely be playing in a hurricane.  He's all I have left.  Well, him and Cobb.  Good thing we have flexes instead of third WRs!

 
matttyl said:
I almost have to.  The last 8 months in my dynasty league has seen Calvin retire, Allen tear his ACL, Sammy put on IR, Kevin White put on IR, my ace in the hole Josh Gordon goes to rehab, Cooks is on bye, and Devante Parker will likely be playing in a hurricane.  He's all I have left.  Well, him and Cobb.  Good thing we have flexes instead of third WRs!
Click to expand...
If it makes you feel any better. Unless someone in this thread changes my mind, this will be the first week I don't play him in my lineup, which usually means said player will explode on my bench.

 
Boone22 said:
The Arizona Republic's Kent Somers believes WR Jaron Brown needs to "play more" at the expense of Michael Floyd.
Floyd has arguably been the least productive receiver in the league through three weeks. Among receivers with at least 20 targets, Floyd's 39.1 percent catch rate ranks dead last. He was credited with one drop in the Week 3 loss to the Bills, but he could have just as easily been charged with three. Floyd also ran a bad fourth-quarter route, leading to a Carson Palmer interception, when the Cardinals were threatening a comeback. Brown has caught 6-of-11 targets for 145 yards (24.2 YPR) and one score on just 85 snaps, mostly playing in garbage time. Sep 27 - 9:15 PM

Source: Kent Somers on Twitter
Click to expand...
this is just a ploy to motivate Floyd

 
Own him in multiple leagues, but he's a bye week flex for now in all but one (where he's WR3). Still hoping he gets it going, but patience is starting to wear thin.....

 
2 targets. First was an overthrow and second was a bobble out of bounds. Obviously he has some talent, but he's in a funk and there are better options in the Arizona passing game.

 
Only rosters he should be on are dynasties. I expect him to leave after his contract is up at the end of this year. Go be the clear-cut #2 elsewhere. Too many mouthes to feed in AZ.

 
Should be interesting final snap count #s. John Brown was nearly an every down WR tonight (and the 2nd guy in 2 wides). Jaron Brown was the 3rd guy a lot in 3 wides too splitting with Floyd.

 
Michael Floyd caught 0-of-3 targets in Arizona's Week 5 win over the 49ers.
One of Floyd's missed connections came with the game out of reach late. You can only be so harsh seeing as fill-in Drew Stanton completed just 11 passes all evening, but Floyd now has just 12 catches through five games, and has fallen behind John Brown on the depth chart. He's playing passive football after locking like an alpha WR1 in 2015. Perhaps he's grown tentative since suffering a concussion last month, but something isn't right. Floyd won't be a viable WR3 against the Jets' burnable secondary in Week 6.

 
 
 
Oct 7 - 12:01 AM
Click to expand...

 
One of my bigger disappointments this year so far. After he finished last year so strong, really thought he would have a great year.

 
Tool said:
One of my bigger disappointments this year so far. After he finished last year so strong, really thought he would have a great year.
Click to expand...
As did I. He really hurt me in one of my leagues last year when a team I was battling with for a playoff spot had him finish strong. I had John Brown and was constantly frustrated that Floyd was getting all the looks. So I go with Floyd instead of Brown and... surprise! Brown is the better option this year.

 
He's a hold for me.  No better options on the wire.  Holding him on my bench and hoping he catches fire like he did after a slow start last season.  Palmer does like throwing to him. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Arizona has been a pretty prolific passing attack the last few years. Maybe it's just him?
Click to expand...
Nah. Dude beasted the last half of last season. And that was working as the #1 because by that point Fitz had visibly fatigued over the season. The entire team and offense are in some kind of a funk at the moment, I think just growing pains as they transition to a more run based approach with David Johnson.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Easy hold. If you guys were expecting much w Stanton under center I feel sorry for you. Sure he hasn't looked right thus far, but either have the Cardinals as a whole. I'd give it at least another 2-3 weeks unless it's a short bench, 10 team, league. 

 
So after the bagel last week, Palmer's back and they're playing the Jets secondary which has been horrendous. Crazy to roll him out this week?

 
Tool said:
So after the bagel last week, Palmer's back and they're playing the Jets secondary which has been horrendous. Crazy to roll him out this week?
Click to expand...
Not crazy.   I'm rolling him out over injured Steve Smith and Cameron Meredith.   Not a hard decision obviously but I think he's due for a bounce back game.  

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

T
travdogg's favorite values as of 7/21
Replies
44
Views
2K
Deamon
Deamon
T
Travdogg's Free Agency Predictions and 2 round mock (updated 4/8/22)
2
Replies
73
Views
3K
rockaction
rockaction
EBF
Top 26 Rookies 2021
2 3
Replies
108
Views
11K
jdoggydogg
jdoggydogg

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 3 (members: 0, guests: 3)
Top