ZWK

ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (Updated May 2017)

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Update: My most recent rankings are usually on the last couple pages of the thread. Updated May 2017: RB, WR, QB, TE.

 

I've put together my positional dynasty rankings, and I figured I'd share.

Today, the wide receivers. Tomorrow, the world. Other positions will follow over the next week or so.

These are for a standard dynasty league (12 team, non-PPR, start 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE, about 250 position players rostered). Columns show the player's tier, rank, name, team, and age (as of 9/1/13), with ** if I have them ranked significantly ahead of the average FBG staffer and -- if I have them ranked significantly worse. (Any errors, e.g. in listed teams, were made intentionally so that you could find them and feel superior.)

Tr Rk Player Team Age

1 1 Calvin Johnson DET 27.9
2 2 A.J. Green CIN 25.1
2 3 Julio Jones ATL 24.6
2 4 Demaryius Thomas DEN 25.7 **
2 5 Dez Bryant DAL 24.8
3 6 Percy Harvin SEA 25.3
3 7 Randall Cobb GB 23.1
3 8 Brandon Marshall MIA 29.4 --
3 9 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 30.0
4 10 Victor Cruz NYG 26.8
4 11 Hakeem Nicks NYG 25.6
4 12 Jordy Nelson GB 28.3
4 13 Andre Johnson HOU 32.1
4 14 Roddy White ATL 31.8
4 15 Vincent Jackson TB 30.6
5 16 Tavon Austin STL 22.5
5 17 Dwayne Bowe KC 28.9
5 18 Marques Colston NO 30.2
5 19 Kenny Britt TEN 24.9 **
5 20 Justin Blackmon JAX 23.6
5 21 Mike Wallace MIA 27.1
5 22 Danny Amendola STL 27.8 **
5 23 Michael Crabtree SF 26.0
5 24 Pierre Garcon WAS 27.1
6 25 Josh Gordon CLE 22.4
6 26 Cecil Shorts JAX 25.7 **
6 27 Steve Johnson BUF 27.1
6 28 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 21.3
6 29 Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 22.5
6 30 Michael Floyd ARI 23.8 **
6 31 Torrey Smith BAL 24.6 --
6 32 Antonio Brown PIT 25.1 --
7 33 Jeremy Maclin PHI 25.3
7 34 T.Y. Hilton IND 23.8
7 35 DeSean Jackson PHI 26.7
7 36 Greg Jennings MIN 29.9 --
7 37 Eric Decker DEN 26.5
7 38 Wes Welker DEN 32.3
7 39 Miles Austin DAL 29.2
8 40 Justin Hunter TEN 22.3
8 41 Danario Alexander SD 25.0
8 42 Sidney Rice SEA 27.0
8 43 Mike Williams TB 26.3
8 44 Reggie Wayne IND 34.8
9 45 Alshon Jeffery CHI 23.5
9 46 Emmanuel Sanders PIT 26.4 **
9 47 Santonio Holmes NYJ 29.5
9 48 Steve Smith CAR 34.4
9 49 Ryan Broyles DET 25.4
9 50 Markus Wheaton PIT 22.6 **
9 51 James Jones GB 29.4
9 52 Lance Moore NO 30.0
9 53 Denarius Moore OAK 24.7
10 54 Kendall Wright TEN 23.8 --
10 55 Chris Givens STL 23.7
10 56 Stephen Hill NYJ 22.4
10 57 Rueben Randle NYG 22.3
10 58 Anquan Boldin SF 32.9
10 59 Brian Quick STL 24.2
10 60 A.J. Jenkins SF 23.9
10 61 Vincent Brown SD 24.6
10 62 Terrance Williams DAL 24.0
10 63 Greg Little CLE 24.3
10 64 Robert Woods BUF 21.4 --
10 65 Aaron Dobson NE 22.2
10 66 Keenan Allen SD 21.4 --
10 67 Golden Tate SEA 25.1
10 68 Jonathan Baldwin KC 24.1
10 69 Stedman Bailey STL 22.8
10 70 Josh Boyce NE 23.6
10 71 Malcom Floyd SD 32.0
11 72 Quinton Patton SF 23.1
11 73 Andre Roberts ARI 25.6
11 74 Brian Hartline MIA 26.8
11 75 Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK 26.5
11 76 Rod Streater OAK 25.6
11 77 Charles Johnson GB 24.5 **
11 78 Joseph Morgan NO 25.5
11 79 Nick Toon NO 24.8
11 80 Brandon Lloyd FA 32.2
11 81 Brandon LaFell CAR 26.8
11 82 Mohamed Sanu CIN 24.0 --
11 83 Leonard Hankerson WAS 26.3
11 84 Marquise Goodwin BUF 22.8
11 85 Da'Rick Rogers BUF 22.2
11 86 Julian Edelman NE 27.3 **
11 87 Domenik Hixon CAR 28.9 **
11 88 Jeremy Kerley NYJ 24.8
11 89 T.J. Graham BUF 24.1
11 90 Nate Washington TEN 30.0
11 91 Davone Bess CLE 28.0
11 92 Arrelious Benn PHI 25.0
11 93 Andrew Hawkins CIN 27.5
11 94 Austin Collie IND 27.8 **
11 95 Juron Criner OAK 23.7

Edited by ZWK
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Looks pretty good. It's always tough to balance immediate value vs. long term value when making these lists. The first 5-6 guys are pretty obvious, but after that you start having to make judgment calls between old players or unproven youngsters. In general, I put a little more stock in youth. I think the risk/reward equation probably favors a prospect like Patterson over Roddy White or a Wheaton over Steve Smith. I find the dynasty rankings on this site to be a little too cautious and redraft-y, but your list is a little closer to my line of thinking.

There are still plenty of specific things that I don't agree with. Not a fan of Danario, Hill, Sanders, or Broyles.

Cautiously optimistic about Blackmon and Boyce. I like Roberts to maybe become a Lance Moore type on his next team in 2014.

There is some real dreck at the bottom of the list. Hankerson, Benn, Criner, Hixon, and Lloyd are waiver fodder in my eyes. Gotta find room for Chris Harper over those guys.

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Reasoning behind my top ten:

Tier 1: Megatron is on his own level, and gives you a significant advantage over any other WR in the league.

Tier 2: AJ, Julio, Demaryius, and Dez are elite, prototypical WR1s, who are around 25 yo and have a QB who can get them the ball. They are each likely to have a bunch of top 12 fantasy seasons, including multiple years in the top 5.

Tier 3: Harvin is also an elite talent, but he plays a different role and I'm worried that he'll have more low-end WR1 seasons and fewer top 5 type years. He may also age prematurely (for a WR), as a guy who relies so much on eluding tackles for his value. Cobb is like a younger, less talented Harvin - he is probably the least talented WR in my top 10, but he's in a perfect situation to string together a bunch of borderline WR1/WR2 seasons (like Welker when he joined NE, or Colston when he entered the NFL). Marshall and Fitzgerald are another pair of elite prototypical WR1s, but they're 4-5 years older than the other guys. They're also somewhat dependent on situation - in order to put up a top 5 type season, Marshall probably needs Cutler and Fitz needs a nonawful QB.

Tier 4: Cruz rounds out the top 10, as another talented slot receiver in a great situation. He'll need to sign a long-term deal to hold this spot in the rankings; if he does then I might even boost him up to tier 3. He goes ahead of Nicks (injuries), Nelson (older, more situation-dependent, more likely to leave town), and some older receivers.

For my reasons for liking the starred guys in tiers 5-6 (Britt, Amendola, Shorts, and Floyd), see here. For more of my thoughts on the rookies, see here (and the rest of that thread). For why I'm down on Torrey Smith, see here.

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Looks pretty good. It's always tough to balance immediate value vs. long term value when making these lists. The first 5-6 guys are pretty obvious, but after that you start having to make judgment calls between old players or unproven youngsters. In general, I put a little more stock in youth. I think the risk/reward equation probably favors a prospect like Patterson over Roddy White or a Wheaton over Steve Smith. I find the dynasty rankings on this site to be a little too cautious and redraft-y, but your list is a little closer to my line of thinking.

There are still plenty of specific things that I don't agree with. Not a fan of Danario, Hill, Sanders, or Broyles.

Cautiously optimistic about Blackmon and Boyce. I like Roberts to maybe become a Lance Moore type on his next team in 2014.

There is some real dreck at the bottom of the list. Hankerson, Benn, Criner, Hixon, and Lloyd are waiver fodder in my eyes. Gotta find room for Chris Harper over those guys.

Re dreck:

I like to churn the bottom of my roster. During the season, that means picking up guys who have a chance over the next couple weeks to prove themselves, or to prove to be cuttable. (In other words, at the bottom of my roster I pay a lot of attention to what SSOG/Adam has called the urgency consideration.) In the offseason, that means looking at guys who could either step up or be cuttable before the season opens. Essentially everyone in my tier 11 (and below) is dreck; many of the ones that I like are guys with a shot to emerge from the dreck before week 1.

Hankerson, Benn, and Criner are all young guys who it seems a bit premature to give up on entirely. They all have a chance to win a significant role this offseason (though Benn less so); if they don't then cut & churn. There is at least some reason to hope with each of them, based on some combination of age, draft pedigree, college performance, size, previous hype, and reports like this one. Lloyd has been a starting fantasy WR for the past 3 seasons - if he signs somewhere and has a chance to start then hooray, if not then goodbye.

Hixon is a bit less churnable, since it looks like he'll be Carolina's third WR. I like what he did in NY when injuries created room for him in the lineup, and there are openings in Carolina's WR corps (and soon to be one at the top). If he's earning a significant number of targets or putting pressure on Lafell, that could be a sign that there is more to come.

If you have a taxi squad which has unchurnable slots for rookies at the end of your roster, then that obviously changes things. I have Harper right behind Goodwin and Rogers in my rookie rankings, and would be fine with keeping him on my taxi squad. But he has much less of a chance to prove himself this season, and his odds & upside aren't good enough for me to want to fill a standard roster slot for a year.

On other particular players:

My love of the churn is also part of the reason why I like guys like Steve Smith - ideally he'll give you 1-2 years of WR2-3 play, and then a free roster space to use in other ways. But I like Wheaton too - Wheaton vs. Smith is a close call in my eyes, and will depend on how badly you need a starter this year.

The urgency concern is much less relevant at the top of the roster, so it does not explain my rankings of guys like Roddy and Patterson. It's possible that I am too high on Roddy - I notice myself feeling uncomfortable about taking him there. But history suggests that guys his age have about another 2 years as a valuable fantasy WR (on average), and that good younger WRs often don't last as long as you think (except for the very best, it's rare to be able to expect more than 4 years as a valuable fantasy WR).

I like Sanders & Broyles in large part due to situation. Pittsburgh keeps cranking out undersized fantasy starters and just lost their top WR. Detroit throws the ball 700 times a year and needs someone besides Calvin to catch it. They also both seem like good route runners.

With Roberts: Lance Moore types don't have much fantasy value unless they have a Drew Brees type throwing them the ball. He'll shoot up the rankings if he lands in just the right spot next year, but Davone Bess would've shot up the rankings if he'd ended up in NE (instead of Amendola). I'll think about moving him (and Golden Tate; anyone else?) up a bit based on this consideration.

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I like it but a few players I would move.

Randle

Decker

Torrey Smith

Antonio Brown

Denarius Moore

should all move up at least 1 tier and maybe more

Nicks

Nelson

Andre Johnson

Rice

Holmes

should all move down a tier

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If this is non-PPR, then how do Harvin and Cobb make your top-7? I can understand that ranking in PPR, but are they that high in Non-PPR as well?

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Even at his age, Reggie Wayne is ranked too low. So much can change so quickly in a dynasty that I think you have to look at his track record, his remarkable ability to stay healthy, and his QB and you have to think that two more years is probably a given for him and that is a long time in a dynasty. I see at least 6 guys ranked ahead of him who I think are legitimately busted out or aged out or suspended out of the league in the next two years so, on that alone, I think Wayne deserves at least a 30-36 ranking because, JMO, he clearly carries a lot of value this year and next, especially as a tradeable piece (a team looking for that one piece to get over the hump, etc).

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Wow dood sick! This feels like Xmas in July!

1st guy who stood out to me was Kenny Britt in the 5th tier, he certainly has the talent, but the character risks would give me pause investing in him there. Decker and Holmes were ahead of some guys I would feel better about. Will take some more time looking over this. Thank for sharing.

Edited by Biabreakable

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I'm a lot higher on DX and Garçon than most. After considering the risk/reward they both performed like WR1's.

I like where you have Nicks, a lot of people are down on him.

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Looks pretty good. It's always tough to balance immediate value vs. long term value when making these lists. The first 5-6 guys are pretty obvious, but after that you start having to make judgment calls between old players or unproven youngsters. In general, I put a little more stock in youth. I think the risk/reward equation probably favors a prospect like Patterson over Roddy White or a Wheaton over Steve Smith. I find the dynasty rankings on this site to be a little too cautious and redraft-y, but your list is a little closer to my line of thinking.

There are still plenty of specific things that I don't agree with. Not a fan of Danario, Hill, Sanders, or Broyles.

Cautiously optimistic about Blackmon and Boyce. I like Roberts to maybe become a Lance Moore type on his next team in 2014.

There is some real dreck at the bottom of the list. Hankerson, Benn, Criner, Hixon, and Lloyd are waiver fodder in my eyes. Gotta find room for Chris Harper over those guys.

Re dreck:

I like to churn the bottom of my roster. During the season, that means picking up guys who have a chance over the next couple weeks to prove themselves, or to prove to be cuttable. (In other words, at the bottom of my roster I pay a lot of attention to what SSOG/Adam has called the urgency consideration.) In the offseason, that means looking at guys who could either step up or be cuttable before the season opens. Essentially everyone in my tier 11 (and below) is dreck; many of the ones that I like are guys with a shot to emerge from the dreck before week 1.

Hankerson, Benn, and Criner are all young guys who it seems a bit premature to give up on entirely. They all have a chance to win a significant role this offseason (though Benn less so); if they don't then cut & churn. There is at least some reason to hope with each of them, based on some combination of age, draft pedigree, college performance, size, previous hype, and reports like this one. Lloyd has been a starting fantasy WR for the past 3 seasons - if he signs somewhere and has a chance to start then hooray, if not then goodbye.

Hixon is a bit less churnable, since it looks like he'll be Carolina's third WR. I like what he did in NY when injuries created room for him in the lineup, and there are openings in Carolina's WR corps (and soon to be one at the top). If he's earning a significant number of targets or putting pressure on Lafell, that could be a sign that there is more to come.

If you have a taxi squad which has unchurnable slots for rookies at the end of your roster, then that obviously changes things. I have Harper right behind Goodwin and Rogers in my rookie rankings, and would be fine with keeping him on my taxi squad. But he has much less of a chance to prove himself this season, and his odds & upside aren't good enough for me to want to fill a standard roster slot for a year.

On other particular players:

My love of the churn is also part of the reason why I like guys like Steve Smith - ideally he'll give you 1-2 years of WR2-3 play, and then a free roster space to use in other ways. But I like Wheaton too - Wheaton vs. Smith is a close call in my eyes, and will depend on how badly you need a starter this year.

The urgency concern is much less relevant at the top of the roster, so it does not explain my rankings of guys like Roddy and Patterson. It's possible that I am too high on Roddy - I notice myself feeling uncomfortable about taking him there. But history suggests that guys his age have about another 2 years as a valuable fantasy WR (on average), and that good younger WRs often don't last as long as you think (except for the very best, it's rare to be able to expect more than 4 years as a valuable fantasy WR).

I like Sanders & Broyles in large part due to situation. Pittsburgh keeps cranking out undersized fantasy starters and just lost their top WR. Detroit throws the ball 700 times a year and needs someone besides Calvin to catch it. They also both seem like good route runners.

With Roberts: Lance Moore types don't have much fantasy value unless they have a Drew Brees type throwing them the ball. He'll shoot up the rankings if he lands in just the right spot next year, but Davone Bess would've shot up the rankings if he'd ended up in NE (instead of Amendola). I'll think about moving him (and Golden Tate; anyone else?) up a bit based on this consideration.

I feel like we already know what Hixon is. He will probably never be FF relevant.

Benn is kind of interesting as a deep deep sleeper, but the jury has already returned a verdict to some extent. He never made a dent in Tampa and they gave him away for almost nothing. That's not encouraging.

I've never believed in Hankerson, though I can understand why people wouldn't have given up yet. I think Criner is a longshot based on his poor offense, low draft pedigree, and very bad speed.

As far as Harper goes, I think he could be starting for the Seahawks in 2014. I think Russell Wilson has the chance to be a QB who can carry multiple productive starters, so I kind of look at him as being a potential James Jones or Colston type of player in that situation.

I think you are right about the Lions offense to some extent, but they will pass less once they fix their running game/defense and a lot of the targets will go to Reggie Bush, who functions as a slot WR in some respects. They also still have Burleson, who would've been their #2 WR last season if he hadn't gotten injured. I just don't see a lot of upside with Broyles. He's a small receiver who always profiled as more of a slot guy anyway. Two ACL injuries in the past two seasons don't help his case.

Patterson vs. White is an interesting call. At this point Roddy's value is sliding to the point where I'd prefer Patterson. Even if he doesn't pan out, a halfway decent rookie season will keep his value propped up to the point where you should be able to cash him in a year from now for a player more valuable than Roddy. I can only see myself preferring White there if I badly needed the instant production.

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zsk i salute your for being a member of the three letter club take that to the bank brohan

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This is a really good list and it's apparent you put a lot of time and effort into these rankings.

Thanks and kudos.

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Jennings seems too low to me. Amendola seems to high - we have minimal reason to think he can stay healthy, and even if he does, no guarantee that he replaces Welker's production.

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alex p keeton do you think that tponder will be good this year or not i think if you say jennings should be higher you must think so right fill us in brohan

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while my personal rankings may not be exactly the same, it's very difficult to poke (meaningful) holes in any of your opinions.

Your rankings are fundamentally solid as any i've seen. In my opinion, of course. If i liked hearing myself talk like some others people do, i could always nit pick them. but i'm fresh out of the energy to mentally *fap*.

lol. well played, nice contribution

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:converse:

I like when you rank the players on my rosters highly, and dislike when you rank my players lower than I'd hope. Fix that and your list is perfect.

I look foward to the other positional rankings.

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There are a bunch of players that folks have raised issues with. Instead of replying to individual comments, I'll just say a bit about many of the players that have been brought up.

Santonio Holmes: he has basically been a WR3 even with the Jets' awful passing offense. His character issues haven't kept him off the field, and he should be back from his injury soon enough. Upside if the Jets find a passing offense or he goes someplace that already has one.

Sidney Rice: last year was his triumphant return, but no one noticed because Seattle only threw the ball 400 times so his raw totals weren't that impressive. But the talent is there, and within the next 2-3 years I expect that either Seattle will start to throw a lot more, or Rice will end up elsewhere.

Reggie Wayne: he relied on volume last year. Arians made a point of getting him the ball, and he got a ton of targets (195) and still only finished as a high-end WR2. This year I expect him to slide back down to a low-end WR2, even if he staves off father time. And given that he's turning 35 this season, he likely only has 1-2 years left of WR2-3 play (much like Steve Smith).

Harvin & Cobb: almost everyone behind them is a lot older. PPR helps them but not all that much - in points per game last year they were 10th & 17th in non-PPR and 8th & 16th in PPR. I think they can each have a bunch of low-end WR1 type seasons in either format.

Jennings: Ponder is not a good quarterback. Jennings is probably a WR3 until he finds himself in the right situation, and at his age there is significant doubt about whether the right situation will arrive in time. Some people are worried about Peterson taking Vikings' touches; I'm more worried about Peterson winning the Vikings games and keeping them from drafting a better quarterback.

Britt, Amendola, and Garcon: This tier has a bunch of youngish guys with WR1 upside (at least borderline WR1) but significant risk. Britt played like a WR1 from mid-2010 through his 2011 injury (and then wasn't healthy last year), Amendola was brought in to play the Welker role and has a >50% chance to put up numbers at least be close to Welker's, and Garcon seemed to have a great rapport with RGIII (but I'm really worried about that foot). I'll take them over a safe low-end WR2. (A bit more here on Britt & Amendola.)

Danario Alexander: Similar profile to Britt/etc. in terms of risk & upside, but with bigger health concerns. I can't ignore that essentially the entire NFL keeps deciding not to attempt to sign him. That translates into much higher risk, and probably a shorter career.

Torrey Smith & Antonio Brown: Both of these guys have been fantasy WR2/3's. They've gotten an opportunity to do more, but I'm not convinced that they have the talent to step up and take it.

I tend to put a lot of thought into guys who I have ranked ahead of the conventional wisdom because they're the guys who I'll be going after, and not nearly as much thought into guys who I rank below their conventional ranking because there is essentially no way that they'll end up on my roster (even if I did revise them upwards a bit). So if I'm wrong on someone like Antonio Brown (who has always been a tough player for me to get a read on) then I don't care all that much.

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If this is non-PPR, then how do Harvin and Cobb make your top-7? I can understand that ranking in PPR, but are they that high in Non-PPR as well?

Time for my favorite stat of the offseason: In his last 16 games, Percy Harvin has 112 receptions, 1492 offensive yards, 11 offensive TDs, and a kickoff return for a TD. I don't care what scoring system you're using, that's elite production.

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No way I'd ever take Roddy White over Vincent Jackson in non-PPR. They've essentially produced exactly the same numbers over the last 5-6 years (minus Jackson's holdout season), but VJax is more than a year younger, (which means 20-33% more expected career remaining, at their age), he produced his numbers despite changing teams (which has historically depressed receiving numbers), and he's not currently fighting for market share. I'd prefer him in PPR, too, but in non-PPR I think it's a no-brainer.

I'm not going to pick too much at individual rankings. My own are posted, and you can feel free to compare. Just wanted to mention VJax, because I've been the conductor of his hype train for a while now, and the dude's been criminally underrated for years.

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No way I'd ever take Roddy White over Vincent Jackson in non-PPR. They've essentially produced exactly the same numbers over the last 5-6 years (minus Jackson's holdout season), but VJax is more than a year younger, (which means 20-33% more expected career remaining, at their age), he produced his numbers despite changing teams (which has historically depressed receiving numbers), and he's not currently fighting for market share. I'd prefer him in PPR, too, but in non-PPR I think it's a no-brainer.

I'm not going to pick too much at individual rankings. My own are posted, and you can feel free to compare. Just wanted to mention VJax, because I've been the conductor of his hype train for a while now, and the dude's been criminally underrated for years.

Roddy vs. VJax is a close call. Age is on VJax's side, but not by all that much. Being a year older only costs a top WR about a third of a season in terms of expected career length. At their age, that is more like 15-20% of their expected career remaining. The fact that Roddy played at an elite level at age 31 (while VJax's most recent elite season was 1.2 years younger) implies that we should expect Roddy to be about 0.8 years older than VJax in their last good seasons.

Roddy has been a bit more consistent and productive (he has something like an extra 8-10 yards per game), but the main reason that I give him the edge is just that I think he's a better, more complete WR.

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If this is non-PPR, then how do Harvin and Cobb make your top-7? I can understand that ranking in PPR, but are they that high in Non-PPR as well?

Time for my favorite stat of the offseason: In his last 16 games, Percy Harvin has 112 receptions, 1492 offensive yards, 11 offensive TDs, and a kickoff return for a TD. I don't care what scoring system you're using, that's elite production.

While this is true, he is on a different team now. A team likely to attempt in the neighborhood of 450 passes this year. Probably more in successive years, but likely a slow climb. Minnesota attempted 527 passes during the 16 games you cited here. Big difference.

I also think Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, and Chris Harper are more talented than their equivalents in Minnesota during the period you cited, which could imply less of a need to rely so heavily on Harvin. In particular, I think Rice as a WR2 and Tate as a WR3 are typically underrated.

I own Harvin in a couple dynasty leagues, and I'm glad to have him. But I think he is overrated if ranked in the top 10 nowadays.

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I think Seattle has much more talent at WR than Minnesota did, so I can get on board with the idea that Harvin might get a smaller slice of the pie.

Wilson is miles better than Ponder/Jackson/zombie Favre though. That could offset any loss of targets that Harvin might experience.

I wouldn't take Harvin over Calvin/Thomas/Julio/Green/Dez, but he's the next best thing IMO. Young with great talent and high ppg ability.

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If this is non-PPR, then how do Harvin and Cobb make your top-7? I can understand that ranking in PPR, but are they that high in Non-PPR as well?

Time for my favorite stat of the offseason: In his last 16 games, Percy Harvin has 112 receptions, 1492 offensive yards, 11 offensive TDs, and a kickoff return for a TD. I don't care what scoring system you're using, that's elite production.

While this is true, he is on a different team now. A team likely to attempt in the neighborhood of 450 passes this year. Probably more in successive years, but likely a slow climb. Minnesota attempted 527 passes during the 16 games you cited here. Big difference.

I also think Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, and Chris Harper are more talented than their equivalents in Minnesota during the period you cited, which could imply less of a need to rely so heavily on Harvin. In particular, I think Rice as a WR2 and Tate as a WR3 are typically underrated.

I own Harvin in a couple dynasty leagues, and I'm glad to have him. But I think he is overrated if ranked in the top 10 nowadays.

I can get why someone would feel that way. Obviously I disagree, but I think that's a reasonable take. I was just pointing out how easy it is to make the case for Harvin in the top-7 in non-PPR. All he needs to do in Seattle is maintain the status quo, and he'll more than live up to that ranking.

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If this is non-PPR, then how do Harvin and Cobb make your top-7? I can understand that ranking in PPR, but are they that high in Non-PPR as well?

Time for my favorite stat of the offseason: In his last 16 games, Percy Harvin has 112 receptions, 1492 offensive yards, 11 offensive TDs, and a kickoff return for a TD. I don't care what scoring system you're using, that's elite production.

While this is true, he is on a different team now. A team likely to attempt in the neighborhood of 450 passes this year. Probably more in successive years, but likely a slow climb. Minnesota attempted 527 passes during the 16 games you cited here. Big difference.

I also think Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, and Chris Harper are more talented than their equivalents in Minnesota during the period you cited, which could imply less of a need to rely so heavily on Harvin. In particular, I think Rice as a WR2 and Tate as a WR3 are typically underrated.

I own Harvin in a couple dynasty leagues, and I'm glad to have him. But I think he is overrated if ranked in the top 10 nowadays.

I basically agree with this analysis. Seattle is going to continue to run the ball a lot (with their RBs and QB more than their WRs), and they'll continue to throw it downfield to Rice & Tate (which was very effective for them last year - they were both top 12 in EPA per play). That's why I have Harvin outside the top 10 in redraft and a tier below Dez & Demaryius in dynasty. But I still have Harvin as a borderline fantasy WR1 for this season, and half the guys who are ahead of him are 30ish or older, which makes it pretty hard for me to fill in my dynasty top 10 with ten non-Harvins.

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Worth remembering that Pete Carroll had some monstrous defenses in college, too, and yet he still managed to turn Reggie Bush into a Heisman Trophy winner. He gave Bush 34 touches against Fresno State, and then a week later gave him 28 against UCLA (who USC beat by 50 points). He's never shown himself shy about putting his weapons to work in the past, and early indication out of Seattle is that he won't be shy about it now. Early talk is that Harvin will handle every single kickoff return this season. If Carroll is willing to use his new toy on special teams, you have to think he'll be willing to use him a lot on offense, too. He certainly didn't pay all that money and send all those draft picks just to make Harvin a returner.

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Worth remembering that Pete Carroll had some monstrous defenses in college, too, and yet he still managed to turn Reggie Bush into a Heisman Trophy winner. He gave Bush 34 touches against Fresno State, and then a week later gave him 28 against UCLA (who USC beat by 50 points). He's never shown himself shy about putting his weapons to work in the past, and early indication out of Seattle is that he won't be shy about it now. Early talk is that Harvin will handle every single kickoff return this season. If Carroll is willing to use his new toy on special teams, you have to think he'll be willing to use him a lot on offense, too. He certainly didn't pay all that money and send all those draft picks just to make Harvin a returner.

Usually it's taken as good news when a player's special teams role is reduced - didn't it add to the Cobb buzz earlier this offseason when McCarthy said that he would like to take Cobb off return duty? Before you heard the talk out of Seattle, were you thinking that it would be a bad sign for Harvin if they wanted to use him only on offense & not as a returner?

Carroll will get the ball to his weapons, and Harvin is a pretty safe bet to top 1000 yfs (with a bunch more on special teams). But Percy Harvin isn't his only weapon. Sidney Rice is a weapon. Marshawn Lynch is a weapon. Golden Tate is a weapon (2nd in the NFL in yards per target last year). Russell Wilson is a weapon running the ball. I don't think that Harvin will get the ball on offense 12 times a game anymore (targets + carries). Carroll is talking up Harvin, but he's also saying things like:

We’re not counting on tilting the field toward one guy or the other. I’m not thinking that way. We’re just going to go play football.

Golden is really ready to be a terrific football player. We love what he does, and we just have to get him the ball more and spread it around to him. It took him a couple years to get going and now he’s legit for us and we love what he brings. And he does different things than what Percy does. Percy is a very unique quality guy. I think it’s going to fit together just fine.

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Worth remembering that Pete Carroll had some monstrous defenses in college, too, and yet he still managed to turn Reggie Bush into a Heisman Trophy winner. He gave Bush 34 touches against Fresno State, and then a week later gave him 28 against UCLA (who USC beat by 50 points). He's never shown himself shy about putting his weapons to work in the past, and early indication out of Seattle is that he won't be shy about it now. Early talk is that Harvin will handle every single kickoff return this season. If Carroll is willing to use his new toy on special teams, you have to think he'll be willing to use him a lot on offense, too. He certainly didn't pay all that money and send all those draft picks just to make Harvin a returner.

Usually it's taken as good news when a player's special teams role is reduced - didn't it add to the Cobb buzz earlier this offseason when McCarthy said that he would like to take Cobb off return duty? Before you heard the talk out of Seattle, were you thinking that it would be a bad sign for Harvin if they wanted to use him only on offense & not as a returner?

Carroll will get the ball to his weapons, and Harvin is a pretty safe bet to top 1000 yfs (with a bunch more on special teams). But Percy Harvin isn't his only weapon. Sidney Rice is a weapon. Marshawn Lynch is a weapon. Golden Tate is a weapon (2nd in the NFL in yards per target last year). Russell Wilson is a weapon running the ball. I don't think that Harvin will get the ball on offense 12 times a game anymore (targets + carries). Carroll is talking up Harvin, but he's also saying things like:

We’re not counting on tilting the field toward one guy or the other. I’m not thinking that way. We’re just going to go play football.

Golden is really ready to be a terrific football player. We love what he does, and we just have to get him the ball more and spread it around to him. It took him a couple years to get going and now he’s legit for us and we love what he brings. And he does different things than what Percy does. Percy is a very unique quality guy. I think it’s going to fit together just fine.

Before I heard Seattle wanted Harvin to dominate kickoffs, I was much more convinced that they were going to limit his usage to keep him fresh. After hearing Seattle wanted Harvin to dominate kickoffs, I am much more convinced that they want to get the ball in his hands as much as possible.

Getting a reduced special teams role is a positive development for young players like Randall Cobb, David Wilson, and Antonio Brown because those players use special teams as a stepping stone. The team doesn't really trust them yet, so they get special teams reps, and eventually they graduate to offense (leaving the special teams jobs for other up-and-comers looking to prove themselves). For players like Percy Harvin, Patrick Peterson, or Desean Jackson, they're already proven on their primary unit. They've demonstrated that they're top-notch contributors, and those primary-unit contributions are going to be more valuable to the team than anything they do on special teams. As a result, their teams wouldn't consider it a good tradeoff if they swapped out 3 offensive touches for 3 special teams touches. Any extra special teams reps they're going to get are not going to come at the cost of their offensive workload.

Similarly, if Carolina came out tomorrow and said that they were going to make Steve Smith a full-time punt returner, I would view this as a positive development for Steve Smith. I would not view it as an indicator that they were going to reduce his role on offense, as he's already demonstrated how integral he is to that unit; instead, I would view this as an indicator that the coaching staff is looking for even more ways to get the ball into Smith's hands. Or, to use a more extreme example, if Seattle was saying that Russell Wilson would handle all punt returns, I wouldn't take that as an indication that Wilson was getting phased out on offense, I would take it as an indication that the coaching staff felt Wilson was a peerless talent and was looking for more ways to get the ball in his hands. If you don't like the Russell Wilson analogy, then feel free to substitute Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Rob Gronkowski, etc.

Realistically, I think Harvin has reached a point where his offensive involvement is probably pretty independent from his special teams involvement (i.e. getting more or less work on special teams won't make a difference to how much work he gets on offense.) The main value of Harvin's special teams work to me is as a signal. When the coaches broadcast a commitment to using him on special teams, it signals to me a broader commitment to using him, period. It tells me that they aren't afraid of taking their new toy out for a spin and really opening it up on the country roads.

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Not to rain on the parade but these look like a copy and paste job, and has very little helpful info. I will just put my rankings in a list and post them without any rhyme or reason as to why I organized it as such. Should help so many.

Also, you didnt put together positional rankings, you just copy and pasted the WRs ones, so on top of that, your title is misleading.

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This is a really good list and it's apparent you put a lot of time and effort into these rankings.

Thanks and kudos.

You are kidding right? A real good list has players and description as to why they are there, not just a number, name and age. LOL.

Also, a good list has correct teams as well, another reason why I know its a copy and paste job.

Edited by Phenix

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Is there something wrong about using the copy paste function? Would this be more worthwhile if he had typed everything from scratch instead of this copy/paste travesty here?

:whoosh:

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Is there something wrong about using the copy paste function? Would this be more worthwhile if he had typed everything from scratch instead of this copy/paste travesty here?

:whoosh:

Pretty sure he meant "this looks like copying and pasting from another source." No idea why he would think that, but that is how I took the comment.

Personally, I find any thoughtful set of dynasty rankings helpful. Sure, it's far more insightful if it includes commentary and rationale for rankings, but the thread is a good conversation starter, and that is the most important thing.

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Not to rain on the parade but these look like a copy and paste job, and has very little helpful info. I will just put my rankings in a list and post them without any rhyme or reason as to why I organized it as such. Should help so many.

Also, you didnt put together positional rankings, you just copy and pasted the WRs ones, so on top of that, your title is misleading.

He said he was starting with the WR's and adding other positions later.

Why don't you stick to polluting the dynasty trade thread. It's easy to ignore you there.

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Worth remembering that Pete Carroll had some monstrous defenses in college, too, and yet he still managed to turn Reggie Bush into a Heisman Trophy winner. He gave Bush 34 touches against Fresno State, and then a week later gave him 28 against UCLA (who USC beat by 50 points). He's never shown himself shy about putting his weapons to work in the past, and early indication out of Seattle is that he won't be shy about it now. Early talk is that Harvin will handle every single kickoff return this season. If Carroll is willing to use his new toy on special teams, you have to think he'll be willing to use him a lot on offense, too. He certainly didn't pay all that money and send all those draft picks just to make Harvin a returner.

I have the opposite view on kickoff return duties. One reason to use him on returns is to increase his touches. That would be particularly applicable if his touches will be relatively limited on offense, due to a low number of passing attempts and due to the high quality of surrounding offensive talent.

And I disagree that there is any predictive value in what Carroll did years ago at USC.

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Not to rain on the parade but these look like a copy and paste job, and has very little helpful info. I will just put my rankings in a list and post them without any rhyme or reason as to why I organized it as such. Should help so many.

Also, you didnt put together positional rankings, you just copy and pasted the WRs ones, so on top of that, your title is misleading.

He said he was starting with the WR's and adding other positions later.

Why don't you stick to polluting the dynasty trade thread. It's easy to ignore you there.

Yet you still respond, I feel you pollute the page... so there we are even.

Let's just litter the page with lists, no reasoning for it however, then we will be all set. It is a cut n paste job, don;t be foolish. HE DIDNT EVEN CHANGE THE TEAM DHB IS ON AND CRABTREE IS RANKED 23RD. Let's ignore the facts and not call out a fraud, because, you know, I'm not patting the guy on the back.

Sorry, I have been working on my anger issues. I should have said.

LET'S GIVE EVERYONE RIBBONS! Good job, you should be a staff member with this in depth reasoning for your rankings of WR. Can't wait to read a list of QBs RBs and TEs that I cannot get anywhere else.

Edited by Phenix

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Not to rain on the parade but these look like a copy and paste job, and has very little helpful info. I will just put my rankings in a list and post them without any rhyme or reason as to why I organized it as such. Should help so many.

Also, you didnt put together positional rankings, you just copy and pasted the WRs ones, so on top of that, your title is misleading.

He said he was starting with the WR's and adding other positions later.

Why don't you stick to polluting the dynasty trade thread. It's easy to ignore you there.

Yet you still respond, I feel you pollute the page... so there we are even.

Let's just litter the page with lists, no reasoning for it however, then we will be all set. It is a cut n paste job, don;t be foolish. HE DIDNT EVEN CHANGE THE TEAM DHB IS ON AND CRABTREE IS RANKED 23RD. Let's ignore the facts and not call out a fraud, because, you know, I'm not patting the guy on the back.

Sorry, I have been working on my anger issues. I should have said.

LET'S GIVE EVERYONE RIBBONS! Good job, you should be a staff member with this in depth reasoning for your rankings of WR. Can't wait to read a list of QBs RBs and TEs that I cannot get anywhere else.

Where is it copied from, if it's not his own work? If you're going to accuse someone of stealing, bring some evidence, guy.

As for Crabtree...you think he was ranked 23rd before his Achilles and it hasn't been updated? Huh...I figured that was clearly an optimistic post-injury ranking.

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Not to rain on the parade but these look like a copy and paste job, and has very little helpful info. I will just put my rankings in a list and post them without any rhyme or reason as to why I organized it as such. Should help so many.

Also, you didnt put together positional rankings, you just copy and pasted the WRs ones, so on top of that, your title is misleading.

He said he was starting with the WR's and adding other positions later.

Why don't you stick to polluting the dynasty trade thread. It's easy to ignore you there.

Yet you still respond, I feel you pollute the page... so there we are even.

Let's just litter the page with lists, no reasoning for it however, then we will be all set. It is a cut n paste job, don;t be foolish. HE DIDNT EVEN CHANGE THE TEAM DHB IS ON AND CRABTREE IS RANKED 23RD. Let's ignore the facts and not call out a fraud, because, you know, I'm not patting the guy on the back.

Sorry, I have been working on my anger issues. I should have said.

LET'S GIVE EVERYONE RIBBONS! Good job, you should be a staff member with this in depth reasoning for your rankings of WR. Can't wait to read a list of QBs RBs and TEs that I cannot get anywhere else.

ZWK is one of the most thoughtful and data-driven posters I've seen on this site, sir, and I'm not one to give everyone ribbons. If you'd like evidence (you know, before calling a guy a "fraud"), you might consider searching for his posts and topics, where you'll find a large number of intelligent and well reasoned arguments on a variety of fantasy football related topics.

Edited by Aabye

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Phenix

Post your own rankings with your thoughtful analysis of why each guy is ranked where he is, or post a link to that insightful post.

TIA

Edited by joey

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Thanks for sharing ZWK, I've always appreciated your contributions to the SP!

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Top 20 QBs of 2012 - http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=651557&hl=

Top 20 RBs of 2012 -http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=651603&hl=

Top 20 WRs of 2012 -http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=651696&hl=

Top 20 TEs of 2012 -http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=651560&hl=

Video Film for Rookies - http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=680000&hl=

2013 are being written and will be available August 1st, as it is not a list, it has reasoning.

Edited by Phenix

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