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Official Arian Foster - All Foster news, all the time (2 Viewers)
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unckeyherb
Footballguy
My draft isn't until Sept 4 but I pick at the 1.12/2.01 turn. Its a 2 man keeper with optional 3rd by sacrificing your 1st pick. I'm keeping Lacy/ABrown and ODB. I may grab Foster at 2.01 knowing he won't make his way back to me at 3.12
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah, I get that but I want to really swing for the fences.
pantherclub
Footballguy
easy cowboy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Too risky for me. You take him between 4-6, you're not crushed if the rumors are wrong. You take him 2-3, and you're absolutely screwed if the rumors are wrong.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Just drafted him in a 14 team PPR Superflex (with 6 pt passing TD's). QB's went early and they went fast, had to follow along at certain points. All starting spots are flexible (Min 1 per position, max 2 QB, start 8 total plus K/DEF).
1.10 Eddie Lacy
2.05 Ryan Tannehill
3.10 Jeremy Hill
4.05 Andy Dalton
5.10 Jarvis Landry
6.05 Arian Foster
1.10 Eddie Lacy
2.05 Ryan Tannehill
3.10 Jeremy Hill
4.05 Andy Dalton
5.10 Jarvis Landry
6.05 Arian Foster
Anarchy99
Footballguy
To put things in perspective, in my 0 ppr leagues, Foster ranked as RB5 last year (#1 in ppg) and missed three games. Even missing the first month of the season this year, he could easily still be a Top 5 RB. Based on ADP from MFL for drafts held in the last three days, his ADP is overall pick #71 (RB27). There's risk, and then there's the potential for free money.
TartanLion
Footballguy
Also got him in the 7th in my draft a week ago. People looked bemused when I did it as well, clearly all of them had consigned him to being out for a long time without even considering the alternative.Took him in the 7th round 72nd in a 12 team non ppr league last night.
IF he comes back earlier than expected = Powerball hit
OR he's out until week 8 = worth the wait
Shutout
Footballguy
How did it go?Ilov80s said:
NVM..I just caught up (didn't see the most recent page).
I really thought he would go early 5th but of course I don't know the sharpness of the crayons you are playing with. I know there is NO way he gets past about 5-01-5.04 in any league I'm in. I play with elephants. They remember how Adrian Peterson stole the show just a few years ago when some dud snagged him late 3rd/early 4th.
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mquinnjr
Footballguy
when you make draft picks that get into people's heads, live for it.Fantasysports1
Footballguy
When I see people getting Foster that late, it seems unfair. Those league owners should know better. Though a 5th seems pricy to me because there are really good players left in the 5th. I think the strategy works best if you take Foster as your RB 2 and already take 3 WRs. Kind of risky as you don't know if you will be able to grab Foster as your RB 2.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Thanks, sadly I was on the other end too many times last night.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Don't say that just yet. I know it is a different situation, but I felt like a boss getting Josh Gordon in the 12th round last year and we know how well that worked out. There is a very real scenario where Foster only plays 2 or 3 games this year.
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
Gordon is a different situation. Browns had no offense and Gordon may have had off the field issues. Foster is going to produce if relatively healthy. Gordon didn't do much when he played. Still if people are getting Foster in the 7th, that is too much. Even 6th is probably.
pantherclub
Footballguy
That is just crazy talk IMO. I fully believe he is missing at least 4 games at the bare minimum.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Exactly. It would be no shock if when Foster does come back he acquires some other injury.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As if no one else in the league is going to get injured. Benjamin and Nelson are perfect examples that one day a guy with no injury history is shelved for the year.
If you don't want to buy in on Foster, or think he will be injured again, fine. But there is no denying how well he does when he plays (ranked #1 or #2 in fantasy ppg at RB 4 times in the past 5 years). I can pretty much tell you straight up that the chances of finding a RB in rounds 4-7 that can have that big an impact in fantasy RB scoring are very, very small.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
You don't have to sell me, I drafted him and basically built my draft strategy around him. However, he is a guy with a history of groin and hamstring injuries who is currently injured. He is very high risk.
I have a hard time taking him earlier than the 5th due to his history of injury. It will take him time to get into game shape and into a groove once he starts playing. His talent will force some guys to roll the dice early, but I just can't with him. Rumors of him coming back earlier, etc are just going to kill any chance of stealing him later.
I drafted Foster (10 team - non ppr) last Sunday (just as these rumors were starting) at 11.09. Alfred Blue went at 10.10. If I didn't have a need to load up on some WR's, I would have taken him a few rounds earlier, but love him as my RB 4 with no worry to need him until after his bye in week 10.
1 - Keeper L. Bell
2 - Keeper Gronk
3 - Keeper Forte
4.04 - P. Manning
5.07 - M. Gordon (Value too great here and we can start 3RB)
6.05 - M. Bryant
7.06 - D. Adams
8.05 - A. Robinson
9.06 - S. Smith
10.02 - L. Fitzgerald
11.09 - Foster
I drafted Foster (10 team - non ppr) last Sunday (just as these rumors were starting) at 11.09. Alfred Blue went at 10.10. If I didn't have a need to load up on some WR's, I would have taken him a few rounds earlier, but love him as my RB 4 with no worry to need him until after his bye in week 10.
1 - Keeper L. Bell
2 - Keeper Gronk
3 - Keeper Forte
4.04 - P. Manning
5.07 - M. Gordon (Value too great here and we can start 3RB)
6.05 - M. Bryant
7.06 - D. Adams
8.05 - A. Robinson
9.06 - S. Smith
10.02 - L. Fitzgerald
11.09 - Foster
Shutout
Footballguy
And it would be no shock if, 4 months from now, we are talking about how many people won their leagues basically by getting Foster in the 5th.
Certainly, it cuts both ways but IMO the risk favors the ones drafting him because any player taken anywhere could get hurt or I could take Julius Thomas or Brandon Marshall in that range at their ADP and they could have a terrible year BUT I KNOW there is also a good chance that I could take Foster in the 5th and have a LEGITIMATE chance of owning a top 5 RB this year. You just don't get that type of ROI often and when you do, it puts you over the top a lot.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Thats some messed up logic, sure anyone can get hurt but Foster is already hurt. Hurt enough that he had to have surgery. Sure he could come back, sure he could come back and be his old self but I think the odds are he is missing at least 4 games and who knows how many more weeks it takes him to get into game shape. So if you are comfortable spending a 5th on someone that could easily miss 6 weeks then good luck but that is a steep price because we are all still filling out our rosters in those rounds.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Currently running and working out.
http://www.sportsworldreport.com/articles/59407/20150828/houston-texans-rumors-arian-foster-return-hurts-alfred-blue-chris-polk-fantasy-ryan-mallett-unhappy-brian-hoyer-starter-deandre-hopkins-jaelen-strong.htm?utm_campaign=Contact+SNS+For+More+Referrer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=snsanalytics
http://www.sportsworldreport.com/articles/59407/20150828/houston-texans-rumors-arian-foster-return-hurts-alfred-blue-chris-polk-fantasy-ryan-mallett-unhappy-brian-hoyer-starter-deandre-hopkins-jaelen-strong.htm?utm_campaign=Contact+SNS+For+More+Referrer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=snsanalytics
pantherclub
Footballguy
I'm pretty sure he agrees with you since he just drafted him (I feel the same way). We're just pointing out that there are plenty of things that could go wrong as well.
Shutout
Footballguy
And Leveon Bell is already suspended AND he could get busted again and get a lengthier suspension OR he could get hurt. But that doesn't stop people from drafting him based on what they KNOW he can do when he plays.
Same as Foster. Any player could play his last snap on any play so instead of saying "well, because a guy got hurt, I think I will avoid him because it could happen again", I am saying let's stick to the facts. He's hurt now. But that's it. Doesn't mean AT ALL that he will be hurt in December. What do I know about Foster? Well, basically that he's put my ff team in a title game in 4 of the 5 years he's been in the league? That he was the #1 RB ppg last year and is the focal point of a running team's offense.
So, yeah, I'm comfortable with it because I bet you anything you want to lose that there are going to be a lot of ff owners this year draft players in EVERY round that are going to disappoint them. We can't predict that so I see nothing wrong with selecting a player that I know is a top FF option.
...who is currently injured, and will be coming back, when he does, to play on a freshly stitched back together groin with the bare minimum time for recovery and rehab.
Yeah, injuries can happen to anyone, but sometimes it's wise to look at specific situations a little more closely.
Nobody's rushing their young stud back, but Foster's an aging vet with a long and repetitive injury history, and there's no use building him into long term plans. The Texans have every reason to treat him totally mercenary. Get him back ASAP, and run him till he blows.
It makes sense, in this case, to EXPECT both a drastically shortened rehab timeframe, and a much higher than average risk of reinjury.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
For those of you getting Foster late in drafts like 6th, and 7th rounds, what is the scoring structure? Total points? Or is there playoffs?
His value IMO would be much higher in leagues with playoffs.
His value IMO would be much higher in leagues with playoffs.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Van Dyman
Footballguy
Crazy talk? Maybe, maybe not. His ADP is rising already and could keep rising 6 more days until my draft.
11 guys passed on Foster last year and that's the how I got their money. Any (or most) of them could legitimately see that as the biggest mistake they made in the 2014 draft and will not want to repeat it. 10 of those guys make two picks each between 4.02 and 5.11. Even if his ADP doesn't reach 5.10, I think there is very little chance that NONE of them are willing to pay a little over ADP for a potentially huge ROI.
SpruceGoose
Footballguy
Not sure if this adds anything.
On the CBS fantasy podcast (8/26), Pat Kirwin said that based on his time spent at Houston's spring training, people shouldnt expect much from Foster. Said he got the feeling ownership was done w/ him because of how often he's injured...and that they like Blue.
He felt they were moving on.
Take from that what you want
On the CBS fantasy podcast (8/26), Pat Kirwin said that based on his time spent at Houston's spring training, people shouldnt expect much from Foster. Said he got the feeling ownership was done w/ him because of how often he's injured...and that they like Blue.
He felt they were moving on.
Take from that what you want
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TakiToki
Footballguy
He's just about a must-get IMO. Fantasy football is not just straight EV with respect to scoring per draft slot. Swinging for the fences is promoted by a winner-take-all system. And, by most accounts, he has a legit shot of being an elite performer for a large chunk of the season.
I think if one plays many leagues, then targeting a particular selection range that gets him in most, but not all drafts is appropriate. But for small-volume players or those with an "important" league, you just gotta take him. Whatever that spot in which you're not sure he's coming back next time around is where you draft him. I believe that to be the Herm Edwards-inspired strategy.
I think if one plays many leagues, then targeting a particular selection range that gets him in most, but not all drafts is appropriate. But for small-volume players or those with an "important" league, you just gotta take him. Whatever that spot in which you're not sure he's coming back next time around is where you draft him. I believe that to be the Herm Edwards-inspired strategy.
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GregR
Footballguy
You know what will cure them of that? Letting Blue be the starter for awhile.SpruceGoose said:Not sure if this adds anything.
On the CBS fantasy podcast (8/26), Pat Kirwin said that based on his time spent at Houston's spring training, people shouldnt expect much from Foster. Said he got the feeling ownership was done w/ him because of how often he's injured...and that they like Blue.
He felt they were moving on.
Take from that what you want
Seriously though, I think Foster is going to be motivated to come back and be stellar. Because he's very easy to cut after this season with a big cap savings. Foster stands to lose a big chunk of salary for 2016 that I don't imagine he comes close to making back in a free agent contract somewhere else.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
7th round in a league with playoffs would make me think that is a guppy league.Ilov80s said:
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah, it is great value, but I think you sometimes get into the game of everyone playing the same game of seeing how long they can wait to get the best deal.
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
Blue stinks. I actually think Polk is better and he has all the lateral agility of lawn mower.You know what will cure them of that? Letting Blue be the starter for awhile.SpruceGoose said:Not sure if this adds anything.
On the CBS fantasy podcast (8/26), Pat Kirwin said that based on his time spent at Houston's spring training, people shouldnt expect much from Foster. Said he got the feeling ownership was done w/ him because of how often he's injured...and that they like Blue.
He felt they were moving on.
Take from that what you want
Seriously though, I think Foster is going to be motivated to come back and be stellar. Because he's very easy to cut after this season with a big cap savings. Foster stands to lose a big chunk of salary for 2016 that I don't imagine he comes close to making back in a free agent contract somewhere else.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
yeesh, I take nothing from thatSpruceGoose said:Not sure if this adds anything.
On the CBS fantasy podcast (8/26), Pat Kirwin said that based on his time spent at Houston's spring training, people shouldnt expect much from Foster. Said he got the feeling ownership was done w/ him because of how often he's injured...and that they like Blue.
He felt they were moving on.
Take from that what you want
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I heard him in NFL Radio talking about Foster. It was very clear that he was referring to 2016......that he doesn't see Foster back in Houston next year.SpruceGoose said:Not sure if this adds anything.
On the CBS fantasy podcast (8/26), Pat Kirwin said that based on his time spent at Houston's spring training, people shouldnt expect much from Foster. Said he got the feeling ownership was done w/ him because of how often he's injured...and that they like Blue.
He felt they were moving on.
Take from that what you want
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Maybe it's just me, but I kind of feel like last year was an outlier for Foster. He was really only good the 3 years prior, not great. And I think Houston's offense all around will be worse than last year.
Lastly, groin injuries tend to linger and/or be re-aggravated. Yeah, he's probably a good risk in the 6th or 7th round, but I'm not all that optimistic on his outluck overall this year.
Lastly, groin injuries tend to linger and/or be re-aggravated. Yeah, he's probably a good risk in the 6th or 7th round, but I'm not all that optimistic on his outluck overall this year.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
please please keep this hype going .... it makes it easier for me to get younger, less injury probe RB's
Banger
Footballguy
Which guys going in the 6th / 7th are going to be #1 option and guaranteed workhorses in their offense and likely produce top 10 production when healthy? Sure there's risk and potential frustration but the upside is worth the risk.
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