In my 12 team non-ppr draft last night, I grabbed Foster at 5.05. Pairing him with Gore as my RB2 tandem, so if Father Time finally catches up with Gore, I'm hoping Foster is back and ready to go.
Late 4th/5th seems to be somewhat appropriate to me for the risk/reward ration with the obvious caveats of scoring system and lineup requirements.
I'm drafting at the turn an a 12 team PPR redraft and contemplating him at 3.12/4.01 as I think he'll be gone by my next picks at 5.12/6.01. I get that 3.12/4.01 is probably "too early" but if he comes back for 1/4 to 3/4 of the season as the Foster we've seen in the past, he will outperform everybody else at that point in the draft.
Just not sure if I'll be able to pull the trigger that early, but you probably don't win your league unless a mid to late drat pick greatly outperforms their draft position. I think Foster may be a better bet than most.
I was basically in the exact boat as you in my draft. 12th spot in a 12 teamer. Went 2 stud wr's with my first two picks--went wr/rb with my 3rd and 4th--and was lucky enough to grab foster at the 5-6 turn. However, my draft was a little over a week ago. I think my chances of landing him there today would be severly diminished. I'm not sure when your draft is--but I'd be curious to know where he goes when you do have your draft.
Draft is going on now, slow online draft with long pick clocks, and the league is filled with pretty savvy people. Don't expect to see a lot of outlandishly "bad" picks.
For me picking Foster at 3.12/4.01 will likely come down to, as all picks do, who else is available but Foster seems a harder player to "slot" in with other picks.
So there was a run on RBs before I picked and my targets of Gore, Miller Forsett and Ingram went right before me.
I passed with Murray and Foster at the turn at 3.12/4.01. Two big upside swings.
I think, in a vacuum, it was early, but since I don't pick until 5.12 I was confident he would be gone by then and I wanted him probably too much as there are quality WRs on the board like Adams Andre Johnson etc...
Settling in for the ridicule from the league...