cloppbeast
Footballguy
Like most people, I use NFL draft status as a guideline for rookie rankings. In OBJ's case though, I have a hard time respecting him as a borderline top 10 pick. With receivers like Jordan Matthews going ahead of him, it seems I have company. In the mold of a player like Tavon Austin, I agree that Beckham could have more value in real football, with use in special teams - he's a decent kick returner. Unlike Austin though, I feel like the Giants reached for OBJ. Usually a player drafted so high has at least some elite trait - speed, receiving skill/route running/hands, college production, jump ball, size, quickness, flexibility ect. You could say Beckham has a decent speed/size ratio (nothing crazy though), but imo lacks more for my comfort in ways like receiving skills and hands. To me, he reeks of role player rather than difference maker.I'm doing a PPR startup right now and he was only the 14th rookie drafted with some really stunning picks going ahead of him (Hill and Benjamin). Very surprising. I was one of the guilty parties, passing on him at 7.08 for Allen Robinson. I would not have guesses that I'd make that pick going into the draft, but then again I didn't expect Beckham to be available and funny things happen when you're on the clock. Seems like a pretty huge fail based on how the NFL rated their respective values. I ultimately couldn't sell myself on Odell as anything other than a complementary player in FF and while Robinson may end up being the same thing, a bigger target with better possession and RAC skills seemed more appealing.
I don't see the Steve Smith comparison with Beckham. Smith is a little guy on paper, but on the field he's insanely strong and competitive. Probably more deserving of the "honey badger" nickname than Tyrann Mathieu. When you look at the elite NFL WRs, you quickly notice that physicality is perhaps even more important than sheer explosiveness or speed. Guys like Fitz and Demaryius are not sprinter fast, but when you combine their good overall speed and quickness with their size and toughness, that's what makes them very difficult to handle. That could be a problem for Beckham. Despite being a tough player with a willingness to compete for the ball, I felt he was often battered in contested ball situations.
While it's not a huge deal to me by any means, I'm also mildly concerned that he was only okay when facing good competition. The phenom index doesn't love him either. I definitely don't see him as an NFL bust. He's way too athletic and skilled. However, he strikes me as a guy who might have more value in the NFL than in FF. A part of me thinks he was a reach by about 15-25 picks where NYG took him. I see him as closer to a rich man's Andre Roberts than the next Steve Smith. I think he has a very solid chance to become a 1000+ yard guy in the NFL at some point, but I'd expect it to be as mediium catches/high yards per catch/low TDs type of guy. Not as a 90 reception target machine, which would be my preference.
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