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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Allen Robinson, Bears

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We all know leagues are won in middle rounds of the draft.  People soured on Arob which caused him to slip far from his real FF value.  He is the clear cut WR1 on his team.  If he produces WR2 he certainly will reward those that drafted him in the 6th round or higher as a WR3/4.  Top WR20 is certainly in the discussion.   

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3 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

He had 1 game of 10+ targets in 2018 (Week 2).  This offense is better on paper and should be more capable of spreading the ball around to people other than Robinson.  If you want to tell me that he will be getting 8/9 targets per game, I'm right there with you.

8 targets per game = 128
9 targets per game = 144

For the prices I paid, I'd be content with either of those outcomes.

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Just now, tangfoot said:

My bad, edited my comment.

I think he will be right in that 9/10 zone which is MASSIVE value for where everyone drafted him this year.  Doubt anyone took him as their WR1, and most likely he was people's WR3.  Even with a drop in targets from last night (but a boost in tds), he should have a floor of a solid wr2 if healthy.

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Just now, Deamon said:

I think he will be right in that 9/10 zone which is MASSIVE value for where everyone drafted him this year.  Doubt anyone took him as their WR1, and most likely he was people's WR3.  Even with a drop in targets from last night (but a boost in tds), he should have a floor of a solid wr2 if healthy.

This is perfectly reasonable,  I don't see him being able to climb back into WR1 status on this team, but when healthy he will be a great WR2 option.  Perfect kind of player for those who went RB-heavy at the top.  Ironically, the only league I have him in is where I was on autodraft and it went RB/RB/RB for me to start. 

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6 minutes ago, Deamon said:

I think he will be right in that 9/10 zone which is MASSIVE value for where everyone drafted him this year.  Doubt anyone took him as their WR1, and most likely he was people's WR3.  Even with a drop in targets from last night (but a boost in tds), he should have a floor of a solid wr2 if healthy.

I wish I had been gutsy enough to take him as my WR1. I think he'll be fine there. Couldn't pass on Tyreek at the time but I would have been better off taking Kelce instead and rolling with A-Rod at WR1. 

 

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3 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

This is perfectly reasonable,  I don't see him being able to climb back into WR1 status on this team, but when healthy he will be a great WR2 option.  Perfect kind of player for those who went RB-heavy at the top.  Ironically, the only league I have him in is where I was on autodraft and it went RB/RB/RB for me to start. 

I think a WR1 is definitely possible.  He's not going to have 10 catch games all year, but even a line of 6 for 80 and 1 td is the same points as last night was. The TDs will come.

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Just now, Milkman said:

I wish I had been gutsy enough to take him as my WR1. I think he'll be fine there. Couldn't pass on Tyreek at the time but I would have been better off taking Kelce instead and rolling with A-Rod at WR1. 

 

Him as your WR1 would have been tough.  His ADP is round 7, I highly doubt your first WR off the board would be in round 7, even in round 6.

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

I think a WR1 is definitely possible.  He's not going to have 10 catch games all year, but even a line of 6 for 80 and 1 td is the same points as last night was. The TDs will come.

Oh, it's possible.  But I think the only real path to him getting there is by attrition.  If 4-5 of the presumed WR1 guys get hurt or grossly underperform, AND Robinson stays healthy all season, he could be a back-end WR1.

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2 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Him as your WR1 would have been tough.  His ADP is round 7, I highly doubt your first WR off the board would be in round 7, even in round 6.

It never was but yeah I'd be fine with going RB heavy and taking my TE and QB before a WR this year after seeing this performance by A-Rod. There's so many good options 

You can't see this being a great draft where you go let's say.....

DJ

Kelce

Fournette 

Josh Jacobs

Baker

Then grab guys like A-Rob, Curtis Samuel, Kirk, Sutton 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Milkman said:

It never was but yeah I'd be fine with going RB heavy and taking my TE and QB before a WR this year after seeing this performance by A-Rod. There's so many good options 

You can't see this being a great draft where you go let's say.....

DJ

Kelce

Fournette 

Josh Jacobs

Baker

Then grab guys like A-Rob, Curtis Samuel, Kirk, Sutton 

 

 

Sure hindsight is easy, but I dont even think I would do this in Hindsight.

I'm also assuming this is only a start 2 WR (not 3), and a non ppr league.  These types of leagues are in the minority of all leagues. 

But ya, even in a non PPR start 2 WR league, I would rather go DJ/Kelce/Fournette/Jacobs/Lockett/Robinson/Wentz then DJ/Kelce/Fournette/Jacobs/Baker/Robinson/Samuel.

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20 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Sure hindsight is easy, but I dont even think I would do this in Hindsight.

I'm also assuming this is only a start 2 WR (not 3), and a non ppr league.  These types of leagues are in the minority of all leagues. 

But ya, even in a non PPR start 2 WR league, I would rather go DJ/Kelce/Fournette/Jacobs/Lockett/Robinson/Wentz then DJ/Kelce/Fournette/Jacobs/Baker/Robinson/Samuel.

Yeah I can see that and admittedly I was cherry picking players. Lockett is going to be huge this year too so can't fault you there. I much prefer Baker to Wentz so both of those are very close for me. I'd take Kyler Murray there instead of Wentz and then I like your choices more. 

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On 9/6/2019 at 6:30 AM, FF Ninja said:

Yeah, not a good night for Trubisky truthers. But as has been mentioned, Robinson got it done with Bortles. And if I had to pick, I think I'd go Trubisky/Nagy over Bortles/Olson. I don't expect Trubisky to throw 35 TDs like Bortles did in 2015, but ~4400 yards is achievable if he throws enough (Bortles threw 606 times @ 7.31 ypa).

That red zone INT was awful... stared A-Rob down until there were 3 DBs running to the corner, and then he let it fly anyway.

TruBUSTky!!!!

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Quote

Allen Robinson caught 6-of-7 targets for 60 yards in the Bears' Week 3 win over the Redskins.

Robinson looked poised for a big night with 5-46 on five targets in the first half, but Mitchell Trubisky had just 58 passing yards in the third and fourth quarters as the offense stalled with a big lead. Robinson will see a lot of CB Xavier Rhodes next week against the Vikings as a low-floor WR3.

Sep 24, 2019, 12:03 AM ET

 

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Allen Robinson caught 7-of-8 targets for 97 yards and two touchdowns in the Bears' Week 5 loss to the Raiders.

A-Rob was virtually impossible to cover for most of the afternoon, routinely coming down with contested catches in tight coverage whenever Chase Daniel threw the ball his way. The Bears' below-average offense hasn't been much of a haven for solid fantasy performances, but A-Rob has mostly overcome the team's suspect play under center with 7-102-0, 4-41-0, 6-60-0, 7-77-0 and now 7-97-2 lines to start the season. He'll be a high-end WR2 in Week 7 against the Saints following the team's Week 6 bye.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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That quote that @The Frankman has is spot-on -- Robinson was unstoppable today. Raiders secondary isn't strong, but even when they had solid coverage Robinson was simply making outstanding catches.

Looks like the kinda WR who is good enough to succeed no matter who is under center.

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2 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

That quote that @The Frankman has is spot-on -- Robinson was unstoppable today. Raiders secondary isn't strong, but even when they had solid coverage Robinson was simply making outstanding catches.

Looks like the kinda WR who is good enough to succeed no matter who is under center.

These are Rotoworld quotes, btw. If I add anything it's outside the bubble.

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Bears have attempted 166 passes. Robinson has 42 targets, a 25.3% market share. Out of 1,014 yards passing, he accounted for 377, which is a 37.2% market share. He's also got 33% of the receiving TDs (2 of only 6).

He's on pace for 134 targets, 99 receptions, 1,206 yards, 6 TDs. 

This offense has been terrible, but he is looking elite again. One the bright side, at least he doesn't play for Miami.

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A Rob II was drafted everywhere to be my WR1, actually, which is where you could get him if you focused on the fourth or fifth round. So far, one team is good. The other, not so much. He's been great, and this weekend the touchdowns came to go along with a game script where he was needed. 

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10 hours ago, rockaction said:

A Rob II was drafted everywhere to be my WR1, actually, which is where you could get him if you focused on the fourth or fifth round. So far, one team is good. The other, not so much. He's been great, and this weekend the touchdowns came to go along with a game script where he was needed. 

That's pretty bold, but through five weeks he's WR13, so if you hit on the pick where other people would've taken their WR1 you're probably doing ok. Given how poorly the Bears have moved the ball through the air, it's a minor miracle he's doing as well as he is. If they were middle of the pack like they were last year, he's be a sure fire WR1. Here's to hoping they can pull their **** together over the bye week. 🍻

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4 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

That's pretty bold, but through five weeks he's WR13, so if you hit on the pick where other people would've taken their WR1 you're probably doing ok. Given how poorly the Bears have moved the ball through the air, it's a minor miracle he's doing as well as he is. If they were middle of the pack like they were last year, he's be a sure fire WR1. Here's to hoping they can pull their **** together over the bye week. 🍻

Yeah, in one league, like I said, I'm doing poorly. In the other league I drafted Chris Godwin along with him at the turn.  That league I'm doing well in. No surprise. I think my biggest weakness has been starting the wrong receivers in the wrong games in the one I'm doing poorly in. It's usually that I have one variance that sinks my team that week. The team is deep, but bell curvy. Plus, I haven't started Land Chark yet, getting talked out of it by rankings, so it's really on me. 

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4 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

That's pretty bold, but through five weeks he's WR13, so if you hit on the pick where other people would've taken their WR1 you're probably doing ok. Given how poorly the Bears have moved the ball through the air, it's a minor miracle he's doing as well as he is. If they were middle of the pack like they were last year, he's be a sure fire WR1. Here's to hoping they can pull their **** together over the bye week. 🍻

I just acquired him today in a redraft. The schedule gets hard, so I'm hoping they'll have to pass a bit more going forward.  This just means they'll be a bunch of 6-3 games. :( 

 

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1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

I just acquired him today in a redraft. The schedule gets hard, so I'm hoping they'll have to pass a bit more going forward.  This just means they'll be a bunch of 6-3 games. :( 

Out of curiosity, what did you pay?

I think he'll be a nice play RoS. He looks dominant again. Winning those 50/50 balls like a boss. And if he can be WR13 on a ~30th ranked passing offense, then he should be fine. The passing offense can't get worse, right?

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

Out of curiosity, what did you pay?

I think he'll be a nice play RoS. He looks dominant again. Winning those 50/50 balls like a boss. And if he can be WR13 on a ~30th ranked passing offense, then he should be fine. The passing offense can't get worse, right?

Engram, Kerryon, Hilton, Kyler in a shallow lineup short bench PPR league.  For Kelce, Arob and then 2 free agents (Kirk, Mike Williams, MVS, types)

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12 minutes ago, Jman18980 said:

Wonder if he will get the Lattimore shadow this Sunday??

I think he will unfortunately.  

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12 minutes ago, Insein said:

So is Ramsey reason enough to bench him?

I own him in a lot of leagues. Benching him everywhere I can afford to but need to start him on one spot. One league I'm starting John Brown and Sutton over him but don't have that luxury in every league.

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On 10/8/2019 at 2:28 PM, FF Ninja said:

Out of curiosity, what did you pay?

I think he'll be a nice play RoS. He looks dominant again. Winning those 50/50 balls like a boss. And if he can be WR13 on a ~30th ranked passing offense, then he should be fine. The passing offense can't get worse, right?

:(

Edited by Encumbrance
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Just benched him for Dede Westbrook. Fabiano on NFLN has him on the "Sit 'em" list, but FBG projections still have him a few points better than Westbrook. Feels like Robinson has a lower floor though. I could see the Rams completely shutting down Trubisky.

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Allen Robinson caught 4-of-6 targets for 15 yards in Week 11 against the Rams.

Robinson was a non-factor with Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage. Mitchell Trubisky didn’t even try to throw in Ramsey’s direction, with Robinson finishing behind both Taylor Gabriel (14) and Anthony Miller (11) in targets. This was an obvious shy-away matchup for Robinson, but he has a get-right spot against the Giants in Week 12.

Nov 17, 2019, 11:38 PM ET

 

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20 hours ago, Encumbrance said:

:(

I think they were around 30th in the league in YPA when I wrote that. They have made it all the way to 32nd now. Congrats Chicago! Time to blow it up. Call Pace, Nagy, & Trubisky into the office and fire them all at once. 

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Had him on my bench, but put him back in last minute.  Told myself I'd rather have him do poorly in my lineup then blow up on my bench. 

I was lying to myself:bag:

Hopefully Trubisky will take some time to rehab his "injury," and Daniel can actually provide some competent QB play.

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Allen Robinson caught 5-of-8 targets for 48 yards and two touchdowns in the Bears' Week 14 win over the Cowboys.

It was a rugged nigh for the Bears' No. 1 receiver, with both his touchdowns coming against tight coverage in the end zone. Amusingly, the second was on LB Jaylon Smith. That was a recurring theme for the Cowboys' confused defense. Robinson also drew a DPI on Byron Jones. Continuing to shine in adverse offensive conditions, Robinson is now up to seven scores and just 102 yards shy of 1,000. He's made lemonade out of Mitchell Trubisky lemons. He will be a borderline WR1 for next week's Green Bay road trip.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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10 hours ago, football fan said:

Two TDs in 1st half, I didn't start him😰

Didn't start him either (flex).  Trubisky had been bad against top-10 pass D's this year (Dallas sure didn't look like a top-10 pass last night, but they were coming into the game), and Dallas had been giving up an average of only 54 receiving yards and .17 TD to WR1's this year.  Robinson finished with 48 yards & 2 TDs.  The process & decision seems valid, but the outcome was greatly impacted by those 2 TDs.  A-Rob is 16th in 10-zone TDs this year, so it was obviously a possibility that he'd score, but I went with the numbers.  As long as the guy I started at flex over him doesn't bomb, I'll be OK with the decision (he says now, before he realizes that this lineup decision costs him his playoff matchup:bag: )

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5 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

Didn't start him either (flex).  Trubisky had been bad against top-10 pass D's this year (Dallas sure didn't look like a top-10 pass last night, but they were coming into the game), and Dallas had been giving up an average of only 54 receiving yards and .17 TD to WR1's this year.  Robinson finished with 48 yards & 2 TDs.  The process & decision seems valid, but the outcome was greatly impacted by those 2 TDs.  A-Rob is 16th in 10-zone TDs this year, so it was obviously a possibility that he'd score, but I went with the numbers.  As long as the guy I started at flex over him doesn't bomb, I'll be OK with the decision (he says now, before he realizes that this lineup decision costs him his playoff matchup:bag: )

The clunker against the Rams and the other one-catch performance against Philly nuked a week or two for me, too, so I wouldn't kick yourself too much. Five of eight targets, culminating in forty-eight yards and two scores gave him a TD-dependent line, though he had, since Chase Daniel and the London Raiders game, gotten many more end zone targets than previously in the year. If you believe, for the most part, about holding constant touchdowns writ large because of the massive amount of information needed to make the decision, then that's nothing you should regret, IMHO. Still stings, though, don't it? 

Edited by rockaction

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24 minutes ago, rockaction said:

The clunker against the Rams and the other one-catch performance against Philly nuked a week or two for me, too, so I wouldn't kick yourself too much. Five of eight targets, culminating in forty-eight yards and two scores gave him a TD-dependent line, though he had, since Chase Daniel and the London Raiders game, gotten many more end zone targets than previously in the year. If you believe, for the most part, about holding constant touchdowns writ large because of the massive amount of information needed to make the decision, then that's nothing you should regret, IMHO. Still stings, though, don't it? 

Yeah, it does.  I was watching the first quarter & felt like I'd made the right choice.  Even during Chi's nice drive (before the INT), A-Rob wasn't getting any catches or even targets. 

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