Looking for another gamble? (1 Viewer)

Another view point on how this weeks games plays out.
Swamp

Carolina vs. Arizona.....
Seven of the last eight playoff games with an O/U line set at fewer than 39 points have finished OVER the total. This from Vegas Insider, means the Carolina vs. Arizona should bet the overs (39).

Balt vs. Pitt
​Next.............​But both meetings this year have been decided by 20 points each (20-point win by Baltimore in September and 20-point win by Pittsburgh in November). Pittsburgh finished 5-1 SU against playoff teams this year while Baltimore was 1-6 against teams with winning records. Pitt vs. Balt. this is the point I like, Bet Pitt to win and give the points
Next.............Indianapolis (-3.5, 49) vs. Cincinnati – Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
Indy ran away with the AFC South by winning five of the final six games, those wins coming against teams with a combined record of 25-55 – none against playoff participants. In fact, only two of their 11 wins came against playoff teams this season, but one of those wins was against the Bengals back in Week 7. The Colts are led by the NFL’s No. 1 passing offense behind star QB Andrew Luck. Luck finished with 40 pass TD and 16 INT and tossed for 300+ pass yards in 10 of 16 games this season. He’ll be going against a Cincinnati pass-defense that has really played well of late. The Bengals have held the last three quarterbacks they’ve faced to just 236 pass YPG with 4 pass TD allowed with 8 INT. Much is made of Cincinnati’s recent struggles in the postseason headlined by concerns about QB Dalton’s weak play. Dalton has just 1 pass TD and 6 INT in three career playoff games, failing to lead the Bengals to a postseason victory in three appearances. Indy, can beat bad teams but they struggle against good D, and Cincy D is playing well lately. And yes, Indy stepped all over Cincy in week 7, but the final score didn't tell the whole story. Cincy wasn't playing well prior to that game and wasn't using Hill much at RB (4 for 15 yards), and Indy was playing well and had some unusual plays (like Allens and Bradshaws TD's). Also "The teams were a combined 0 for 14 on third-down conversions in the first half, marking the first time that's happened in the same game since Cincinnati and Jacksonville did it Sept. 30, 2012, according to STATS. ..." I say the bet is Cincy straight up, don't take the points, they will win.
Detroit vs. Dallas
Next........Perhaps the most integral part of Dallas’ success this season was its offensive line, widely viewed as the best in the NFL. They’ll have their hands full against this Detroit defense that ranked 1st against the run, 2nd in total yards allowed, and 3rd in points allowed. This defense got some very good news that star DT Ndamukong Suh won his appeal. I like the unders in this game, Dallas is in for a surprise on how good the D really is and the referees will swallow their whistles. Bet the unders

The thing about Detroit's run defense is they didn't really face a whole lot of great running teams/RB's (not that there are that many great RB's). But here's a run down of who they faced in each game

Sep 8 - W vs. NY Giants, 35-14 - R.Jennings/A.Williams/NYG 23rd ranked rush offense
Sep 14 - L at Carolina, 7-24 - J.Stewart
Sep 21 - W vs. Green Bay, 19-7 - Lacy before he started getting significant carries
Sep 28 - W at NY Jets, 24-17 - C.Johnson/C.Ivory
Oct 5 - L vs. Buffalo, 14-17 - Jackson/Spiller/Buf 25th ranked rush offense
Oct 12 - W at Minnesota, 17-3 - Asiata/McKinnon
Oct 19 - W vs. New Orleans, 24-23 - Ingram/Robinson
Oct 26 - W at Atlanta, 22-21 - S.Jax/Atl 24th ranked rush offense
Nov 2 - Open
Nov 9 - W vs. Miami, 20-16 - combo of Williams/Thomas/Miller
Nov 16 - L at Arizona, 6-14 - Ellington/Ari 31st ranked rush offense
Nov 23 - L at New England, 9-34 - Blount/Vereen/Pats 18th rush offense
Nov 27 - W vs. Chicago, 34-17 - Forte/Chi 27th ranked rush offense
Dec 7 - W vs. Tampa Bay, 34-17 - D. Martin/TB 29th ranked rush offense
Dec 14 - W vs. Minnesota, 16-14 - Asiata
Dec 21 - W at Chicago, 20-14 - see above
Dec 28 - L at Green Bay, 20-30 - Lacy after he got going. He got 100 yds but only 3.8 ypc avg.

So aside from Forte twice but with the 27th ranked rushing offense, and Lacy they basically played no dominant RB/rushing team. (Car was #7 but due largely to Cam Newton and Miami #3 but they eventually went run-heavy due to passing ineptness)

"

Carolina vs. Arizona.....
Seven of the last eight playoff games with an O/U line set at fewer than 39 points have finished OVER the total. This from Vegas Insider, means the Carolina vs. Arizona should bet the overs (39). "

Not trying to knock your picks....just playing devil's advocate. But I wonder out of those 8 games how many featured a 7-8-1 team, a team with a 3rd string QB that averaged 12.4 ppg over the last 7 games since they lost their starting QB and a team that seems to have hit their stride in the past 4 games defensively giving up an avg of under 11 ppg that held Matt Ryan/Roddy White/Julio Jones to 3 pts and Drew Brees and company to just 10 pts in must win games.

Dragon1952 said:

"

Carolina vs. Arizona.....
Seven of the last eight playoff games with an O/U line set at fewer than 39 points have finished OVER the total. This from Vegas Insider, means the Carolina vs. Arizona should bet the overs (39). "

Not trying to knock your picks....just playing devil's advocate. But I wonder out of those 8 games how many featured a 7-8-1 team, a team with a 3rd string QB that averaged 12.4 ppg over the last 7 games since they lost their starting QB and a team that seems to have hit their stride in the past 4 games defensively giving up an avg of under 11 ppg that held Matt Ryan/Roddy White/Julio Jones to 3 pts and Drew Brees and company to just 10 pts in must win games.

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I'm assuming that the O/U wouldn't have been set that low in those other games unless they had similar resumes leading up to them.

Feel free to find and quote another similar game out of those 8.

Dragon1952 said:

Feel free to find and quote another similar game out of those 8.

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What were the other 8 games?

FreeBaGeL said:

Dragon1952 said:

Feel free to find and quote another similar game out of those 8.

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What were the other 8 games?

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What, you made the comment yet want me to do your work for you? (read, I have no freakin' clue....ha ha)

But I betcha it wasn't a 7-8 team vs a 3rd string QB.

Dragon1952 said:

FreeBaGeL said:

Dragon1952 said:

Feel free to find and quote another similar game out of those 8.

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What were the other 8 games?

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What, you made the comment yet want me to do your work for you? (read, I have no freakin' clue....ha ha)

But I betcha it wasn't a 7-8 team vs a 3rd string QB.

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In 2011-2012 the Texans faced off against the Bengals. The game pitted the #2 and #7 defenses in the league (Carolina and Arizona are #10 and #24 this year comparatively). The Texans brought rookie backup TJ Yates to town to face off against that top 10 Bengals defense.

That was just the first one I could find. Obviously not exactly the same but like I said, most games with an O/U that low are probably going to have a strong reason for it. I would imagine the Jets/Bengals game in 2009-2010 was another one with a low O/U which, while it didn't feature any backup QBs, it featured the #1 and #4 defense in the league playing against the #20 and #24 offenses. The Jets were giving up an average of 7ppg over their last 4 games, despite two of those games coming against some of the league's best offenses (Colts and Falcons) entering their matchup with the Bengals' #24 offense. They had also just shut out the same Cincinnati team they were about to play.

I don't really like the ARZ at CAR game....gun to my head I'd take CAR -6.5 and under 38....I ARZ will struggle on offense, but their defense is stout....I just have a feeling that CAR will win like 17 to 10

I like Pitt -3.....Not having Bell is a bit concerning for Pitt, but they are at home, and Roeth will light up Balt's secondary. Not touching the O/U at 45

I like Indy -3.......Luck>>>>Dalton and at home......Not touching the O/U at 49, although I think it will go over.

I've seen the Dal/Det game at 7.5.....I'd take Det at that line.....I see this one coming down to a FG......Also kinda like the under 48......Although, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go over.

I'm not usually one of those guys who worries a lot about the weather but from I have seen of the Pitt forecast it might change the whole complexion of that game. I think any time you have divisional opponents it's a coin flip game most times. Add to that the loss of Bell, I don't think that can be overstated. I'll take the Ravens to win outright. If the weather doesn't create a huge obstacle for the passing game I'd lean towards the Steelers most likely pushing - the 3.

Like the other poster said I hate everything about the Carolina/AZ matchup. If I were to play it I'd be contrarian and take the Cardinals and the points just with the hope of their defense keeping it close.

Indy vs Cincy is another coin flip to me. How can you trust either team ? I can't. The only thing that would make me sway to the Colts is the fact that they beat Cincy 27-0 earlier this year at home. As a Pats fan I remember attending the Jets divisional round game after the Pats thumped them 45-3 earlier in the year and we all know how that worked out. Wouldn't touch the game. I'd bet the house against the winner next week regardless who it is or who they play.

Now for the one game I do like, the Cowboys winning by double digits vs the Lions. The boys are rolling and I think it continues. Stafford for whatever reason just looks horrible even with the array of weapons he has. Romo can make plays vs the Detroit secondary and the o-line can handle their own vs Suh and co. Detroit isn't Seattle on D/ST or even close.

The only thing that scares me is that Luck is great and will probably bring it up a notch in the playoffs. Dalton probably won't.

Oh and Dallas didn't do it's usual December crash and burn but I'm not betting that carries into January.

Slider said:

Oh and Dallas didn't do it's usual December crash and burn but I'm not betting that carries into January.

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Call me crazy but I have a feeling they end up in the SB. I hope not as I hate them but I will give them credit for their performance thus far. I have a playoff draft tonight and plan on going heavy on Cowboys just in case. If they lose I'm ok with that too.

ROCKET said:

Slider said:

Oh and Dallas didn't do it's usual December crash and burn but I'm not betting that carries into January.

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Call me crazy but I have a feeling they end up in the SB. I hope not as I hate them but I will give them credit for their performance thus far. I have a playoff draft tonight and plan on going heavy on Cowboys just in case. If they lose I'm ok with that too.

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Brady-Gronk-Lynch would be at the top of my list, even without the extra game.

Panthers big. Ravens by a FG. Cowboys big. Bengals run all day for the win. Will the colts ever learn how to stop the run?

SeniorVBDStudent said:

Panthers big. Ravens by a FG. Cowboys big. Bengals run all day for the win. Will the colts ever learn how to stop the run?

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That's what scares me about Indy.....I mean Luck is awesome, but I could see a heavy dose of Hill, and dump offs to Gio to keep Luck off the field.

As a fan, I'm glad I'm seein a lot you saying Dallas big! I think it will be pretty close. We'll see.

Leroy Hoard said:

ROCKET said:

Slider said:

Oh and Dallas didn't do it's usual December crash and burn but I'm not betting that carries into January.

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Call me crazy but I have a feeling they end up in the SB. I hope not as I hate them but I will give them credit for their performance thus far. I have a playoff draft tonight and plan on going heavy on Cowboys just in case. If they lose I'm ok with that too.

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Brady-Gronk-Lynch would be at the top of my list, even without the extra game.

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Only problem is I'm a Pats fan, the jinx factor is in play here. FWIW I've done really well most years in my playoff drafts including last year. Hope I suck this year. I may take a couple of Pats but they will go fast as the league is all Pats fans.

And the Overs win out, again, now 8 out of 9.

Perfect storm of events for an over in that Carolina game, for sure. Turnovers leading to short fields and 31 points scored on drives of 19 yds, 30 yds, 17 yds, 39 yds and 3 yds, plus a meaningless safety with 3 secs left.

Dragon1952 said:

Perfect storm of events for an over in that Carolina game, for sure. Turnovers leading to short fields and 31 points scored on drives of 19 yds, 30 yds, 17 yds, 39 yds and 3 yds, plus a meaningless safety with 3 secs left.

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Good defenses playing against iffy offenses tend to lead to turnovers. It's not like Lindley just stinks because he can't move the ball. He's a turnover machine (13 turnovers in 6 starts before this game).

There were also a couple of long time consuming drives that resulted in no points, yet they still hit the over by the midway point of the 3rd quarter.

Collinsworth said it perfect. You subtract a LeVeon Bell and add a Haloti Ngata. Baltimore wins, in an upset.