[SIZE=12pt]Stinkin Ref:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]4.13 Tom Brady QB7 NE[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]6.13 Carson Palmer QB21 AZ[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]2.13 Jeremey Hill RB11 CIN[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]5.04 Todd Gurley RB24 FA[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]11.04 Reggie Bush RB48 SF[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]17.04 Robert Turbin RB61 SEA[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]3.04 Julian Edelman WR17 NE[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]7.04 Kevin White WR38 FA[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]8.13 Charles Johnson WR46 MIN[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]10.13 Justin Blackmon WR59 JAC[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]12.13 Kenny Britt WR68 STL[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]16.13 Cecil Shorts WR83 HOU[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]19.04 Chris Matthews WR95 SEA[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]1.04 Jimmy Graham TE2 SEA[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]9.04 Coby Fleener TE21 IND[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]13.04 Dan Bailey PK4 DAL[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]15.04 Josh Brown PK20 NYG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]14.13 Kansas City Chiefs DST12[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]18.13 New Orleans Saints DST29[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]12th: Britt: They resigned him, he wants to be there, he showed he may have turned the corner as a professional and with Foles and improved QB play, we may see him drastically outperform his ADP. I would not be surprised to see him finish top 30. Quick had some pretty serious shoulder damage, and Bailey is nothing to write home about. Britt is locked in as a WR2 if not WR1 heading into next year; I’ll take that in the 12th while others are diving deeper down some other depth charts. Decent value as WR68.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]13th: Bailey: May not score the most points but maybe the best kicker in the league. Guy is money. Losing Murray may lead to some stalls in the red zone. I love me some Bailey and went with him early and would have been okay going solo with him if I felt better about my team overall.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]14th: Chiefs DST: I had planned on targeting KC shortly after all the top DST were off the board. Pretty solid unit that gets to the QB and has some talent coming back from injury that I think many forgot about. This team has the potential to do some damage on special teams as well with Thomas. Grind it out offense that finds a way to move the chains keeping the defense off the field and in low scoring games. Couple games last year including one of the DEN games where the other team only had the ball like twice in a half. Much of this doesn’t translate to fantasy points, but pressuring the QB with sacks, forcing fumbles, INT’s, and the return game do. I think this DST checks all those boxes.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]15th: Brown: Took a gamble hoping DAL and NYG don’t share a bye week. Nothing special here, decided to add a second PK cause I may be on the cut line quite a bit with this team and might need those handful of points he scores more than Bailey some weeks.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]16th: Shorts: As we move forward in these survivors and then later into the Anarchy’s, etc. this will be a situation I will be keeping an eye on. Shorts may not have a ton of redraft value as a redraft starter every week, but if he locks in as the WR2 in HOU he might be a nice play in best ball as a WR 4-5-6. AJ gone, HOU signs Shorts pretty quick, realize they brought in Washington too. We’ll see. He has shown he can make some plays and that was with JAC with some pretty average QB play so you have to think the arrow is pointing slightly up. I realize we are not totally sure what Mallet brings to the table yet, but I think he is a decent NFL QB. This could be a nice upside pick at WR83.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]17th: Turbin: I debated a lot with this pick. I was going RB and the decision came down to Turbin, Herron, and Blue here. I sniffed Taliaferro too. Gore is such a solid 3 down back as one of the best blockers in the league, I just wasn’t sure what role Herron would have and IND may draft a stud RB. Blue’s value lies in the fact that Foster will get hurt, but I didn’t want to wait around for that. Turbin has found a niche at least on third down and the occasional series here and there. He will see the field each week and get touches on a run heavy team. Maybe some extra work this year, especially if they have a lead as Lynch has been taking and delivering a pounding. Lynch was dinged a little but played through it, so there is also some huge value here should Lynch miss time. I realize the fantasy players want the torch to be passed to Michael and I was drinking that Kool Aid for a while to and wanted to see it happen. But it just doesn’t look like we are there yet. As RB4 I got a guy who should be guaranteed to see the field on a run heavy team and he is also the receiving RB of choice in 2min/4min/3rd down.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]18th: Saints DST: Of the 4 DST that were left, I went with the guys in the dome and in the NFC South.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]19th: Matthews: Showed he could perform on the biggest stage requiring NE to put Revis on him. 6’5” and aggressive to the ball. Wilson will take some shots. Was targeting him in the 19th or 20th round as my last WR. Very little NFL experience except for the biggest game of the year where he may have been in the talk for MVP had SEA won. I used to be big on these big fast WR’s who could win jump balls; NFL is changing a little though. Graham will eat into those jump balls, but Matthews might have the goods to replace Kearse at WR2 and should at least move past Lockette, etc. as the WR3. Richardson probably won’t be ready to start the season. You would think they have to find a way to get him on the field. Got a feeling once training camp and preseason start, his ADP will rise. Could be a total bust, but I’m buyin right now at this price. I sniffed Andre Holmes and may have gone that direction had they not signed Crabtree. Also sniffed Wilson and he finished strong, but KC should pull the trigger on someone with more talent early in the draft.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]20th: TBD[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Overall: With one pick left, nothing too exciting here. I think I may have enough not to finish last most weeks (for a little while). If some things break right and some of my guys outperform their ADP I could hang around. Probably not enough pop to win it all at the end unless I get some serious breakouts. Took way too much risk at WR.[/SIZE]
I passed on Brady for Big Ben, fearing age starting to kick in for Brady, but that could be something I regret in hindsight. Palmer was going to be my QB2 target until my game plan got messed up, so I really like that value pick. I think QB will end up being a position of strength for you so long as age doesn't catch up with either guy. Arians + Palmer is really a
great match.
At RB you added the KC RB3 after this list was posted which doesn't change much. Your RB position totally hinges on Gurley as you will get very little production out of Bush and Turbin. Very risky, but rookies have paid off pretty well in recent years. Would've liked to have seen at least a semi-feasible RB3 in the mix, though.
Really, really thin at WR. Hate to see a rookie at WR2 and an NFL WR3 in the fantasy WR3 slot. I liked Johnson before he was on the Vikings, but with Patterson and Wallace in town, I'm not bothering with him. I also liked Blackmon but he's looking fat and has been away for a long time. Very risky. Could get almost nothing out of him. I see why you don't like Quick now.. you stole Britt! Britt looked ok after Quick got injured, but Quick was clearly the shinier toy out of the two of them. Shorts has a documented case of the dropsies, but he seems poised for a WR2 role in Houston. Might be a nice pick if they don't let a rookie leap frog him.
Really strong at TE even though I'm not particularly excited about either guy. Graham has left the top tier so very hard to pay such an early pick for him, however Sea isn't paying him to only get 80 targets. I think Fleener benefited from Allen's injury and slow recover. Will Allen back and Andre Johnson signed, I see a steep drop in targets for Fleener, but he'll still have a few nice games to bolster a 2ppr stat line.
You need immediate and strong impact from Gurley and White. If either one flounders, I think you'll be out pretty quickly. If they both flourish, you could make a run. Rookies are risky after the draft but relying on them before you know their situation is about as risky as it gets.
QB6 - Big Ben
QB11 - Rivers
I typically wait a round later, preferring two mid-level QBs (last year my favorite combo was Tannehill/Palmer) but my plans got screwed up when Spiller unexpectedly went two picks before my 4th round selection. Seeing no RB/WR/TE I considered as value there, I decided to just get a jump on QBs, knowing the QB run was just about to start and most position players would slip.
RB2 - Charles
RB27 - Martin
RB34 - Riddick
RB40 - Knile Davis
RB78 - Rainey
Playing it safe at RB by handcuffing KC and TB running backs with a PPR specialist in Riddick who should be taking over a larger role with the departure of Bush. Injuries at RB can be so debilitating in this format, I decided to play not to lose at this position rather than angling for the home run.
WR13 - Benjamin
WR18 - Andre Johnson
WR34 - Decker
WR61 - Quick
WR70 - Stevie
WR96 - Miles Austin
I think AJ and Decker were steals. AJ + Luck = double digit TDs. Decker was good while injured and in a bad offense. Should be quite improved while healthy on Chan Gailey's offense. Quick was the WR1 before injury so I really like him, but to be safe I wouldn't have minded grabbing Britt later. It's ok because I really wanted Stevie with Rivers. He had three 1000 yard season with Fitzpatrick so I am interested to see him with a good QB. If Rivers gets traded then that will torpedo my brilliant plan. Miles Austin was a nice flyer. He's not old yet and has shown a lot of ability when healthy. Hopefully he finally figured out how to stay healthy last year in Cleveland.
TE Josh HIll
TE Virgin Green
TE Dennis Pitta
Hodge podge group. Need Hill to at least be serviceable. Don't need a breakout with the rest of my team being solid, but a breakout wouldn't hurt. Green's upside will be tempered with the addition of the oft-injured Owen Daniels, but that means more opportunity for Pitta in Baltimore due to Daniels' departure... if his hip doesn't pop out of socket again.
K Zuerlein
K Nugent
Just trying to nab two guys who won't lose their jobs.
D TB
D Jax
Taking a defense early is for suckers. Lovie Smith should turn around TB's D in his second year. Jax wasn't actually too bad in this format last year and is a young unit. Should get better.
solid QB's...
you seem to have some faith in the TB running game....I might be missing out on something there....you may not even have the starter let alone a handcuff situation.....may be under estimating Sims's role....some talk about Martin available for trade and maybe even cut....could be another MJD here soon....Sims seems to be the guy on 3rd down and at least spelling/splitting series....not sure where Rainey fits in at the moment and that might have been a wated pick....luckily you have two guys in Davis/Riddick who actually offer some stand alone value....like those picks a lot....
AJ as WR18 seems about right, for that to be a steal he'd have to have a pretty big year....Decker seems about right as well with Marshall in town and the current QB situation so steal might not be the word I would use to describe those two picks....I do like those as a decent top 3 though....after that it gets a little shaky with Quick coming off injury and the last two picks may net you very little production.....
in this format at some point I think we all have to give the TE position the credit it deserves and I think you may have got caught a little on the back side of some mini runs by slow playing it there....Hill could maybe save your bacon if he breaks out, but you could be in serious trouble....Pitta may not even play and while Green will see the field because of his blocking, Daniels (and now Casey) will be in the receiving mix there....and a 12th on Green seems really steep....
I like some of what you did here, but the early QB double dip at the 4-5 turn, the questions about Sims in TB, and the slow play at TE could change things a little.....not sure what you could have gotten later at QB had you passed on Rivers.....but there were some serviceable guys available.....AJ and Decker may really need to be those steals you were talking about.....
good luck.....
I
don't like the TB run game. However, I think the team will be a little better and that Sims is nothing more than a 3rd down back. He's just getting love because he is young. I recall reading that the advanced statistics showed Sims was crap as a runner and Rainey was above average. Martin is too cheap to bother getting rid of. I'd welcome a trade, though. Between the two of them, I should be guaranteed a nonzero RB2 score...
I believe AJ could crack the top 12. That's why I think he was steal. Look at Decker's stats last year (and read
this article - "A typically less-than-100-percent Decker still managed to qualify as the 10th-highest scoring fantasy wideout during the 11 weeks that he ran at least 25 routes."). He was really good for an injured player on a terrible aerial attack. Gailey will fix this. Marshall is just a possession receiver, so Decker will still get the valuable deep targets, which Fitzpatrick was actually pretty good at last year. Be prepared to be surprised if Decker is healthy. As for Quick, you're acting like he tore a patellar tendon or achilles in week 17. It is a shoulder injury and it happened relatively early in the season. If what he showed last year wasn't a mirage then he should pick up where he left off. Miles could be a bust (age, injuries, or rookie WR), but you are underestimating Stevie. He's only 28, has been a WR1 before, and if you take into account the sample size, he did very well in SF last year. If Rivers gets traded, though, that will hurt Stevie a lot. He's being overlooked. At least put him on your radar in redraft leagues this year as a last round flyer. Trust me.
I agree, 2PPR make a big difference, but the position isn't consistent. Having 2-3 mediocre guys in best ball can be just as good as a stud and a dud. Josh Hill will get some targets and appears to be athletic enough to do some damage. There were some statistics backing up the idea that Graham was just an above average TE in an elite situation, so don't be surprised if Hill ends up top 10. Kubiak knows how to use his TEs and Daniels has a history of injuries. I like Casey but Kubiak never used him that much in Houston. Green is pretty athletic. He could win some targets on merit even if Daniels stays healthy. Pitta was risky, but he's a TE3 for me and came very cheap and has a very nice upside (61/669/7 in '13).
. All good now though and predrafted my next pick.
seriously disagree here. If Blackmon is back, he'll have a few big games. Not a fan of Britt. Colston is going to be the top receiver in NO in PPR. Probably not as many big days as Cooks, but he'll be the savvy veteran security blanket with Graham gone.
