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​ 🏛️ ​Official Supreme Court nomination thread - Amy Coney Barrett (10 Viewers)

There's almost no way he survives this.  He's out by Tuesday, COB at the latest IMO.  Even if you think the odds are 95% none of this stuff is true, why would you risk it?  What if someone can prove it?

Republicans don't care about Brett Kavanaugh.  They care about the seat.
American men as a whole don’t really care about rape and sexual assault. 

 
Elizabeth Warren‏ @SenWarren 17m17 minutes ago

If Republicans have blocked an FBI investigation, bullied Dr. Ford, & tried to "plow right through" & put Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court – all while holding onto credible information about a second sexual misconduct claim – then this isn’t a confirmation. It’s a cover-up.

:yes:

 
Maybe it's like a bizarro world vetting, where they just wanted to be certain they had a sexual abuser on the court.
Isn’t that the Russian model? Promote the people you have dirt on because you know you have the leverage to make sure they do what you want.

Didn’t they have signed statements from women that knew him in college that they released during the hearings prior to any of the allegations?

 
A lot of them probably don't, but Senators care about which way the wind blows and when it's a cold gale dead into their face they change course.
Does it seem like that’s the case? That Republicans have a cold gale in their faces from this? It doesn’t to me.

 
It is okay if you don’t know.
I bet it would be.  You suggested that if it doesn’t find allegations it should be changed. 

The fact is, a background check isn’t like an investigation unless the people you identify (or who are identified by basic database searches) say bad things about you. 

There’s no process, nor really can there be without massive personal intrusions, for this.  

 
Kirsten Gillibrand‏ @SenGillibrand 2h2 hours ago

US Senate candidate, NY

Enough is enough. One credible sexual assault claim should have been too many to get a lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court and make decisions that will affect millions of women’s lives for generations. Two is an embarrassment. It’s time for a new nominee.

 
It also does not make sense to me that no one reported the crimes and the guy was allowed to victimise more and more women.
Ford received death threats.  

Read up on what happened to all of the women who accused Harvey Weinstein.  

Read the story that has been linked several times about the woman in Texas who accused high school classmates of rape.  

Read up on the stories of victims from the Catholic church sexual assault scandal.  

 
It also does not make sense to me that no one reported the crimes and the guy was allowed to victimize more and more women.
I leave some leeway to consider that you may be too young for what’s being discussed. 

The idea of “date rape” or “acquaintance rape” wasn’t really in use at the time. It was really, really different. “Rape” was something that happened in back alleys with strangers, not what happens when someone gets drunk, passes out, and is penetrated against her will. Sexual assault, same thing.

In fact, what we see in Middle Eastern culture (rape is the fault of the impure woman, etc) isn’t that far off from general public view here at the time.  The fact is, reporting a rape was more likely to make you a social pariah than to get him arrested.  Even if you had strong evidence. 

And a gang rape? You’re a loose woman.  A ####.  A prostitute. It came back on the accuser. Not the accused.  

The first time “Date Rape” was used in print in popular publication was between 1980-1982.  It just wasn’t the same. 

 
It is not very helpful to interview friends and family, who tend to vouch for you anyway.
It can be.  If the initial vetting and nomination process isn’t ridiculous.  Get the little nuances.  But the assumption at the first is that they aren’t rapists, true. 

 
Right now, today, it’s a coin flip as to whether a woman reporting a rape gets more out of reporting than she has to go through in my opinion.  It is currently a better scenario than ever before in history, also in my opinion. 

 
I’ll preface by saying I’m for abortion and highly disagree with the view this guy has on the subject. I’m not a fan of his, and have no issue with him not being confirmed.

With that, to me the hypocrisy is always hysterical. I’m excited for the Dems to take control of everything so that every Dem and GOP in here, along with your arguments flip, and you’re simply on the other sides of these arguments (I.E. it’s an accusation, it needs investigating, there is no proof, he’s still a good candidate, etc.), arguing everything opposite to how you are now.

For the immediate future, I’d like to see some corroboration to some of these allegations. If there were legitimately multiple occasions this guy sexually assaulted women 35+ years ago, I’d think it would be a pattern and something would’ve happened more recently. I’ve seen a woman make an accusation that dates back to before I was born, then name a witness who has denied recalling any of it. I see a new woman pop up with a story that happened at a Yale dorm. I’m sorry to bring reality into this, but if something like that happened in a college dorm, there should be dozens of people coming forward to corroborate it, not refute it.

FWIW, Michael Avenatti is prob my favorite character in this saga we call our government. He feels like the guy who has his tongue cut out at the end of the movie for crossing a guy nicknamed Fat Mustache.

For those that believe the emails about gang rapes are real :lmao:  Man, I guess when you so desperately want something to fit your narrative, you can become the most gullible human on Earth. 

I wouldn’t mind watching the guy go down, but down on his own merit. I hate to say it, but I’m skeptical of these stories until there is any evidence at all beyond an accusation. Hopefully some actual facts/evidence comes out to back these allegations and prove my skepticism wrong. 

In the meantime, flame me away, good stuff in here :thumbup:

 
I’ll preface by saying I’m for abortion and highly disagree with the view this guy has on the subject. I’m not a fan of his, and have no issue with him not being confirmed.

With that, to me the hypocrisy is always hysterical. I’m excited for the Dems to take control of everything so that every Dem and GOP in here, along with your arguments flip, and you’re simply on the other sides of these arguments (I.E. it’s an accusation, it needs investigating, there is no proof, he’s still a good candidate, etc.), arguing everything opposite to how you are now.

For the immediate future, I’d like to see some corroboration to some of these allegations. If there were legitimately multiple occasions this guy sexually assaulted women 35+ years ago, I’d think it would be a pattern and something would’ve happened more recently. I’ve seen a woman make an accusation that dates back to before I was born, then name a witness who has denied recalling any of it. I see a new woman pop up with a story that happened at a Yale dorm. I’m sorry to bring reality into this, but if something like that happened in a college dorm, there should be dozens of people coming forward to corroborate it, not refute it.

FWIW, Michael Avenatti is prob my favorite character in this saga we call our government. He feels like the guy who has his tongue cut out at the end of the movie for crossing a guy nicknamed Fat Mustache.

For those that believe the emails about gang rapes are real :lmao:  Man, I guess when you so desperately want something to fit your narrative, you can become the most gullible human on Earth. 

I wouldn’t mind watching the guy go down, but down on his own merit. I hate to say it, but I’m skeptical of these stories until there is any evidence at all beyond an accusation. Hopefully some actual facts/evidence comes out to back these allegations and prove my skepticism wrong. 

In the meantime, flame me away, good stuff in here :thumbup:
I definitely appreciate the perspective.  I will say I am aware of a number of women who were victimized from the mid 70s to early 90s who never came forward because being revictimized by this kind of process wasn’t worth it to see them walk free, which they inevitably would. Forward from the MeToo movement it may be different.  However, it’s been like that a long time. 

 
Who threatened them?  Surely they get support from other women.
Who threatened them is not as important as the fact that they were threatened.  

I don't know what you mean by "support" or what effect that would have.  

I recommend reading this story if you haven't done so already: link.  It will probably answer some of your questions.

 
What can the pre-FBI vet catch that the FBI does not?
Hopefully social background from people who have known him a long time that he doesn’t identify to the FBI.

Pre-FBI vetting usually involves people the President knows stating their thoughts and understanding on the nominee.  That may not be included at all in an FBI check. 

 
Kirsten Gillibrand‏ @SenGillibrand 2h2 hours ago

US Senate candidate, NY

Enough is enough. One credible sexual assault claim should have been too many to get a lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court and make decisions that will affect millions of women’s lives for generations. Two is an embarrassment. It’s time for a new nominee.
Gillibrand lost any and all credibility when she invited Mattress Girl to the State of the Union Address.

 
The name Louisa Garry is likely to come up, since she's disputing Ramirez's claim already.

Garry is featured in a pro-Kavanaugh ad by Judicial Crisis Network. They've spent $4.5 million so far trying to get Kavanaugh confirmed so it's likely she's paid for saying this also.

link
She testified for Kavanaugh already before the committee. https://www.c-span.org/video/?449707-1/supreme-court-nominee-brett-kavanaugh-confirmation-hearing-day-4-part-1

Second line: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/407017-conservative-group-launches-15m-campaign-to-defend-kavanaugh

 
I definitely appreciate the perspective.  I will say I am aware of a number of women who were victimized from the mid 70s to early 90s who never came forward because being revictimized by this kind of process wasn’t worth it to see them walk free, which they inevitably would. Forward from the MeToo movement it may be different.  However, it’s been like that a long time. 
I believe you and I’m sure this happens, but this accusation from a dorm room - if it happened, there should be a lot of supporting evidence. If something like this happened in a dormitory with multiple people present, it would’ve been like a game of telephone and everyone that resides there would’ve heard the stories.

It feels like everyone is coming along because the story fits/helps their narrative. I’m not a fan by any stretch of this guy (I dislike him to be direct), but if there aren’t a bunch of people who resided there supporting this, it’ll be out the window in days for me, and that’s just using common sense. 

The first accusation needs to be addressed more (unless there is a lot of corroboration on the second). My skepticism on her comes from naming a witness who denies any recollection of this. Could he be lying? Sure, but get him under oath and see what he has to say then (prob won’t happen).

Everything in our government and those who dig in on both sides have driven me to such a point of disgust, all I can do is try to cover my anger and disappointment with laughter.

 
Republicans refused to release the vast majority of records from when Kavanaugh worked in the Bush administration. They knew about at least 2 of these recent allegations against Kavanaugh, and revealed them to nobody --- not the committee, not the FBI, not the public. In trying to hide everything they've made an entire mess out of these hearings and have made themselves look awful going into an election. And this isn't going to die down.

It's hard to imagine how they could handle it worse.

 
I believe you and I’m sure this happens, but this accusation from a dorm room - if it happened, there should be a lot of supporting evidence. If something like this happened in a dormitory with multiple people present, it would’ve been like a game of telephone and everyone that resides there would’ve heard the stories.

It feels like everyone is coming along because the story fits/helps their narrative. I’m not a fan by any stretch of this guy (I dislike him to be direct), but if there aren’t a bunch of people who resided there supporting this, it’ll be out the window in days for me, and that’s just using common sense. 

The first accusation needs to be addressed more (unless there is a lot of corroboration on the second). My skepticism on her comes from naming a witness who denies any recollection of this. Could he be lying? Sure, but get him under oath and see what he has to say then (prob won’t happen).

Everything in our government and those who dig in on both sides have driven me to such a point of disgust, all I can do is try to cover my anger and disappointment with laughter.
I just think it’s worth remembering that at this time, the same allegations just weren’t viewed the same.  “He slapping Becky in the face with his junk” was less sexual assault than similar to “he punched Jim in the nuts.”  And that’s not how things should be viewed in my (and many others’) opinion 

 
Yet the women decided to finally speak up, when the level of threat is even worse now.   Cannot open the link w/o subscription.
Try opening in incognito.  

I was also responding to your original question about why the victims didn't speak up at first so as to prevent more incidents and victims.  

 
It`s like watching school of sharks in a in a frenzy of bloody chum filled water 

:shark:
This entire narrative jumped the shark when Avenetti showed up with his email about running trains on these women.

If someone still believes this is anything other than a hail Mary character assassination attempt after that bit of fiction then they are beyond help.

My guess is most people don't believe any of these claims that have been denied under penalty of perjury by everyone named as a witness to this point.

The people clinging to these rape fantasies are just unable or unwilling to separate their political bias from reality.

If the Republicans are smart they call for a vote, confirm Kavanaugh, and then have the FBI open an investigation.

If they find anything credible then Kavanaugh can be impeached.

If they keep bending over every time the Dems lob an unfounded accusation (be it sexual assault or racism or whatever)  then this country is lost.

 
This entire narrative jumped the shark when Avenetti showed up with his email about running trains on these women.

If someone still believes this is anything other than a hail Mary character assassination attempt after that bit of fiction then they are beyond help.

My guess is most people don't believe any of these claims that have been denied under penalty of perjury by everyone named as a witness to this point.

The people clinging to these rape fantasies are just unable or unwilling to separate their political bias from reality.

If the Republicans are smart they call for a vote, confirm Kavanaugh, and then have the FBI open an investigation.

If they find anything credible then Kavanaugh can be impeached.

If they keep bending over every time the Dems lob an unfounded accusation (be it sexual assault or racism or whatever)  then this country is lost.
Why do you say “keep”? I don’t recall the Republicans bowing to a single unfounded accusation. 

 
One of the male classmates who Ramirez said egged on Kavanaugh denied any memory of the party. “I don’t think Brett would flash himself to Debbie, or anyone, for that matter,” he said. Asked why he thought Ramirez was making the allegation, he responded, “I have no idea.” The other male classmate who Ramirez said was involved in the incident commented, “I have zero recollection.”

In a statement, two of those male classmates who Ramirez alleged were involved in the incident, the wife of a third male student she said was involved, and three other classmates, Dino Ewing, Louisa Garry, and Dan Murphy, disputed Ramirez’s account of events: “We were the people closest to Brett Kavanaugh during his first year at Yale. He was a roommate to some of us, and we spent a great deal of time with him, including in the dorm where this incident allegedly took place. Some of us were also friends with Debbie Ramirez during and after her time at Yale. We can say with confidence that if the incident Debbie alleges ever occurred, we would have seen or heard about it—and we did not. The behavior she describes would be completely out of character for Brett. In addition, some of us knew Debbie long after Yale, and she never described this incident until Brett’s Supreme Court nomination was pending. Editors from the New Yorker contacted some of us because we are the people who would know the truth, and we told them that we never saw or heard about this.”

there you have it

as soon as accuser one’s story starts to fall apart with exculpatory evidence - the calendars, the “witnesses” who say no such thing happened - they have to dig up another accuser...

Kavanaugh was a principal author of the Starr Report...if there was any truth to any of this, you don’t think the Clintons would have used it?

what a farce this has become
 

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