Sinn Fein

***Official Supreme Court nomination thread: Kavanaugh

10,403 posts in this topic

Rather than muck up Scalia's thread with all the fighting about who and when we get a new nominee, why don't we keep the disagreements in here.

The man died, and whether you agreed or disagreed with his positions or sharp barbs, that's not the place to argue over his replacement.

Politically, the GOP will be making a huge mistake if they drag this out to the election...that gives democrats plenty f reason to turn out the vote.

Similarly, I hope Obama goes for a more moderate centrist here. Better chance of getting a confirmation, and I prefer my justices to be more moderate and willing to look at each case on the merits.

 

Edited by Sinn Fein
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If Obama goes moderate, it will be Sri. If he goes more liberal it will be Robert Wilkins or Paul Watford. I think Obama goes with an African-American.

Edited by jon_mx

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If he really wants to piss off conservatives, might as well go all the way. Obama should pardon Mumia Abu Jamal and then nominate him to the Supreme Court.

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If he really wants to piss off conservatives, might as well go all the way. Obama should pardon Mumia Abu Jamal and then nominate him to the Supreme Court.

Why would he want to piss off conservatives?

Why do we want to go nearly 18 months with only 8 Justices?

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If he really wants to piss off conservatives, might as well go all the way. Obama should pardon Mumia Abu Jamal and then nominate him to the Supreme Court.

Why would he want to piss off conservatives?

Why do we want to go nearly 18 months with only 8 Justices?

In many cases, a tie is as good as a win for the left. Especially considering the DC circuit leans left, the SC will not have enough votes to overturn their ruling on many important cases involving federal law.

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If he really wants to piss off conservatives, might as well go all the way. Obama should pardon Mumia Abu Jamal and then nominate him to the Supreme Court.

Why would he want to piss off conservatives?

Why do we want to go nearly 18 months with only 8 Justices?

I was trying to be amusing.

But in truth so many conservatives, like Rubio, have shouted for years that Obama is a radical who is trying to transform the country that sometimes I just want him to actually do something radical just to make their heads explode.

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If he really wants to piss off conservatives, might as well go all the way. Obama should pardon Mumia Abu Jamal and then nominate him to the Supreme Court.

Why would he want to piss off conservatives?

Why do we want to go nearly 18 months with only 8 Justices?

In many cases, a tie is as good as a win for the left. Especially considering the DC circuit leans left, the SC will not have enough votes to overturn their ruling on many important cases involving federal law.

Good for the 9th Circuit cases, probably bad for 5th Circuit cases.

But generally bad for jurisprudence, where some clarity is better than unsettled positions among the Circuits.

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Again, politically, I think the GOP is making a bad move to make this an election issue.

The possibility of SC nominations is always an issue, but never as crystallized as an open seat. Add in the argument that the GOP was stonewalling, and you create huge incentives for Dems to turn out in opposition - even if Clinton was running.

GOP needs some leverage here to keep Obama from going too liberal, but if Obama nominates an acceptable moderate, the GOP should run with it, and use that to fire up their base to make sure they nominate the next justice.

Edited by Sinn Fein
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Again, politically, I think the GOP is making a bad move to make this an election issue.

The possibility of SC nominations is always an issue, but never as crystallized as an open seat. Add in the argument that the GOP was stonewalling, and you create huge incentives for Dems to turn out in opposition - even if Clinton was running.

GOP needs some leverage here to keep Obama from going too liberal, but if Obama nominates an acceptable moderate, the GOP should run with it, and use that to fire up their base to make sure they nominate the next justice.

You're right of course, but don't you also think that if they do this the base will go crazy? They're already so pissed off at Republicans for working with Obama in any way- won't this be the final straw?

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Again, politically, I think the GOP is making a bad move to make this an election issue.

The possibility of SC nominations is always an issue, but never as crystallized as an open seat. Add in the argument that the GOP was stonewalling, and you create huge incentives for Dems to turn out in opposition - even if Clinton was running.

GOP needs some leverage here to keep Obama from going too liberal, but if Obama nominates an acceptable moderate, the GOP should run with it, and use that to fire up their base to make sure they nominate the next justice.

You're right of course, but don't you also think that if they do this the base will go crazy? They're already so pissed off at Republicans for governing - won't this be the final straw?

fixed

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Again, politically, I think the GOP is making a bad move to make this an election issue.

The possibility of SC nominations is always an issue, but never as crystallized as an open seat. Add in the argument that the GOP was stonewalling, and you create huge incentives for Dems to turn out in opposition - even if Clinton was running.

GOP needs some leverage here to keep Obama from going too liberal, but if Obama nominates an acceptable moderate, the GOP should run with it, and use that to fire up their base to make sure they nominate the next justice.

You're right of course, but don't you also think that if they do this the base will go crazy? They're already so pissed off at Republicans for working with Obama in any way- won't this be the final straw?

There will be a base revolt if the GOP allows any nominee to go through. It is probably a net gain for Demicrats in term of votes, because it will give them more cause to vote. I think the GOP is already motivated to vote.

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Ed Rollins on Fox threw out a crazy idea- what about Joe Biden?

Crazy and stupid. Youth and health will be key requirements.

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Ed Rollins on Fox threw out a crazy idea- what about Joe Biden?

Surely there has to be someone with more experience in the court system?

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I have a hard time seeing how Obama gets anyone through before November. I have no idea whether that will end up hurting Republicans in the election. Gonna be fun to watch it play out.

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I have a hard time seeing how Obama gets anyone through before November. I have no idea whether that will end up hurting Republicans in the election. Gonna be fun to watch it play out.

It really threw in a new dynamic into this election, elevating a secondary issue into a primary issue. SC appointments probably barely cracked the top 10 issues, now is easily a top 5 issue.

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On the plus side, I think this situation will knock Trump support amoung conservatives down quite a bit. Trump's is a big wild card on this issue, which is not a good thing to conservatives.

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How about Slick Willie, Bill Clinton? That would be fun.

If the Deomocrats want to nominate someone that old, the GOP should confirm. Not wishing ill will on anyone, but Bill has not looked good lately

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Obama steps down. Biden nominates Obama to the Supreme Court. Biden wins the election in November

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Does a referendum on the next Supreme Court justice in November help the Dems only?

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If the Republicans block a moderate nominee there is a chance they end up with Clinton or Sanders as President and a Democrat majority Senate right? It seems that plan could really backfire if things don't go their way in November.

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I am pretty sure Both Obama and Clinton will be too busy making millions from corporations they 'despise' to be bothered with being in the SC.

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How about Slick Willie, Bill Clinton? That would be fun.

Too much of a pay cut.

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Again, politically, I think the GOP is making a bad move to make this an election issue.

The possibility of SC nominations is always an issue, but never as crystallized as an open seat. Add in the argument that the GOP was stonewalling, and you create huge incentives for Dems to turn out in opposition - even if Clinton was running.

GOP needs some leverage here to keep Obama from going too liberal, but if Obama nominates an acceptable moderate, the GOP should run with it, and use that to fire up their base to make sure they nominate the next justice.

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Sinn continuing an MVP like election year run.

SF has a lot of info at his fingertips but doesn't jam in everybody's face. It's obvious from the avatar what his motives are and I again applaud his ability to discuss without the constant name calling and party put downs. Of all the Sanders supporters he seems to have a strong focus and is at least respectful of the other side.

I want to make but 1 point. The Supreme Court has had an advantage for a long time and could vote 5-4 on a lot of issues but never once that I can remember did the discussion of Roe v Wade even get close to being overturned and gay marriage was legalized. It;s like when I say Israel has the capability to wipe out the entire ME if they chose to and yet they don't. If Iran had a nuclear weapon and the ability to load it up and launch it with accuracy they are likely to do it.

If the GOP really wanted to please the far Right in the party they would have done it a long time ago IMHO.

But if the Supreme Court ends up 5-4 leaning Left and it might be close to that already, this might push it 6-3 in favor of Liberalism. Alito Thomas and Scalia were the rocks for the GOP, Roberts and Kennedy more middle but can lean Right. Soto, Kagan, Ginsburg are all on the Left but I want to stress this, they don't just vote blindly Left. As most folks age they naturally get a little more conservative and I don't have a huge hatred towards any of those 3 I mentioned. Breyer makes that trio a pretty solid foursome.

You have to understand why the GOP was upset but that's life. It isn't fair and I think the GOP will do a lot of party damage in an election year if they hold up Obama's appointees. His choices so far have been pretty solid even if you disagree with Obama and the philosophy of his appointees. When the GOP threatens to shut down operations or just be a burr in the side for Obama, doesn't play well with the country IMO. You are supposed to respect the will of the people and they voted in 2008 and 2012 for Obama, this is part of what you vote on so maybe think about that before you go pushing buttons in the voting booth.

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If the Republicans block a moderate nominee there is a chance they end up with Clinton or Sanders as President and a Democrat majority Senate right? It seems that plan could really backfire if things don't go their way in November.

Right, this is why I'm not sure how I want this to go down. President Sanders with a Democratic majority Senate could get us the next Justice Brennan.

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As most folks age they naturally get a little more conservative and I don't have a huge hatred towards any of those 3 I mentioned.

That doesn't seem true of Supreme Court Justices. A number became more liberal as they aged (Warren, Blackmun, Souter, Kennedy, arguably O'Connor -- we can include Posner, though he didn't make it to the Supreme Court). I can't really think of any that got more conservative. Maybe Scalia, but he was pretty conservative to start with.

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The 'will of the people" also changed from having only 41 GOP senators when Obama was first elected to having 54 now. So 'the will of the people' seems to suggest rubber stamping anything Obama wants is not their 'will'.

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As most folks age they naturally get a little more conservative and I don't have a huge hatred towards any of those 3 I mentioned.

That doesn't seem true of Supreme Court Justices. A number became more liberal as they aged (Warren, Blackmun, Souter, Kennedy, arguably O'Connor -- we can include Posner, though he didn't make it to the Supreme Court). I can't really think of any that got more conservative. Maybe Scalia, but he was pretty conservative to start with.

This. Edited by Sinn Fein

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As most folks age they naturally get a little more conservative and I don't have a huge hatred towards any of those 3 I mentioned.

That doesn't seem true of Supreme Court Justices. A number became more liberal as they aged (Warren, Blackmun, Souter, Kennedy, arguably O'Connor -- we can include Posner, though he didn't make it to the Supreme Court). I can't really think of any that got more conservative. Maybe Scalia, but he was pretty conservative to start with.

These 2 charts which are really just 1 cut off in 2 different parts slightly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ideological_leanings_of_U.S._Supreme_Court_justices

and then

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https://s.graphiq.com/sites/default/files/3019/media/images/_795555_i0.png&imgrefurl=http://supreme-court-justices.insidegov.com/&h=820&w=1200&tbnid=D4jS_8qWr0q5qM:&tbnh=125&tbnw=184&docid=BRBsXopeuMBa0M&usg=__tYl-TOYApq1ucfhGbpPfpSGG30E=&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiAkpjz3ffKAhXDJR4KHeNlC6wQ9QEIIDAA

The 1st one is a little more up to date but the one after looks like a trend towards Conservatism but again it was cut a couple years prior to the latest.

I feel overall that the court itself doesn't lean that heavily either way but if it did or has it seems like it always is a little more conservative.

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How many Presidents have nominated 3 Justices?

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How many Presidents have nominated 3 Justices?

Reagan and FDR did, I believe. Not sure about others.

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Does a referendum on the next Supreme Court justice in November help the Dems only?

I think it helps the Dems more than the GOP - if Clinton is running.

In Iowa and New Hampshire, GOP have outdrawn the Dems. If you leave an open spot on the SC, you have given the Dems more reason to turn out in November. The GOP are already motivated to replace a dem White House. So, can't see this as more motivating.

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