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WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (1 Viewer)

Da Gildz said:
Giants insider Jerry Foley on Sirius thinks Shepard will be used more as a decoy today.  Just an FYI for Shepard owners.  Who knows really. 
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The thought has crossed my mind. Going with Mike Wallace.

 
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Da Gildz said:
Giants insider Jerry Foley on Sirius thinks Shepard will be used more as a decoy today.  Just an FYI for Shepard owners.  Who knows really. 
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Smart play here is go with your best alternative.

Shapard does not strike me as a tough as nails guy, hammy, cold weather, decoy rumor, fantasy playoffs....

 A Marquis Goodwin type would be a much better play.

 
What the heck is a decoy?

I see that you may want to bluff on how effective he is - but that lasts what 60 seconds?

When's the last decoy we have seen?

 
I don't know if he's a decoy because he's running full tilt. He usually does his damage in the second half so that's what I'm praying for...

 
He's got 1 target.  The last 2 games with Eli he had 22 targets.  Clearly he's not a part of the game plan today.  

 
Me neither but this is extremely frustrating. Best case is they get down in the 4th and force feed him but after another non-targeted drive... it ain't happening.

 
Ack88 said:
Anyone rolling with SS for playoffs? Updates?
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Tough decision. He burned me 2 weeks ago. Then burned me when I didn't play him last week. Championship game I'm at a loss to play him or Bryant. Bryant has the better matchup on a better team without Brown playing. Sterling has the better floor but not sure if he will be matched with Peterson. Tough call.

 
bolldpt said:
Tough decision. He burned me 2 weeks ago. Then burned me when I didn't play him last week. Championship game I'm at a loss to play him or Bryant. Bryant has the better matchup on a better team without Brown playing. Sterling has the better floor but not sure if he will be matched with Peterson. Tough call.
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Exact same thing that happened to me.

And I have to choose between Bryant and Shepard this week to replace Brown but my game is for 3rd place.

Pretty sure I'm playing Bryant

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
Exact same thing that happened to me.

And I have to choose between Bryant and Shepard this week to replace Brown but my game is for 3rd place.

Pretty sure I'm playing Bryant
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Same here. Lost but am playing for 3rd place. It's a toss up but I'm starting Sheperd. I may take out Wallace and put Bryant in but I'm definitely starting Sheperd.

 
Do we or will we know if PP will be shadowing Shepard this week? He usually does not cover the slot but no other Giant WR is worth shadowing, maybe he could also shadow Engram?? 

 
dmac37 said:
Do we or will we know if PP will be shadowing Shepard this week? He usually does not cover the slot but no other Giant WR is worth shadowing, maybe he could also shadow Engram?? 
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Haven't heard definitively either way, but I do know he's in my lineup.  He's been criminally underrated by the experts last week and this week. !@#$ them.

 
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I don't mind him playing the slot. Thielen played a lot of snaps in the slot for Shurmur last year and had some nice stats.

 
What we learned about the Giants after Week 2 of OTA practices

Excerpt:

STERLING SHEPARD WILL PLAY MORE BOUNDARY (OUTSIDE) RECEIVER

Shepard has played 90 percent of his total NFL snaps and as racked up 90 percent of his total receiving yards while lined up in the slot. He has caught every single one of his NFL touchdowns as a slot receiver. Now, he will be asked to play a different role in Pat Shurmur’s new Giants offensive scheme. Shepard has so far looked great in his transition to playing some slot and some boundary. He caught three touchdown passes in one OTA practice this past week while consistently beating slot cornerback William Gay.
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Cover 3: Early impressions of Training Camp

Excerpt:

JOHN SCHMEELK: In my opinion, there have been two clear top performers so far: wide receiver Sterling Shepard and edge rusher Olivier Vernon. The soon to be proud papa Dan Salomone has Vernon covered below, so I’ll focus on Shepard. Last year, Shepard was having a great offseason, and heading into his second year all signs pointed to a breakout season. An ankle injury and a flood of subsequent injuries all over the offense washed away those aspirations.

The breakout looks like it was only delayed. Shepard has been unstoppable in camp. In one-on-one situations, defensive backs have been unable to stay with him. His route running is right there with Odell Beckham Jr. as the most advanced on the team. Combined with his quickness coming out of breaks at the top of the route, he is very difficult to stay with for any defensive back. Even more encouraging for the coaching staff is he has been just as effective as both an inside and outside receiver.

If the offensive line holds up and Eli Manning plays at a high level, I’m not sure what defenses are going to do against the Giants’ set of weapons. Odell Beckham Jr. requires a double team. Saquon Barkley is a nightmare in the passing game for linebackers and safeties. Evan Engram can’t be covered by linebackers and most safeties, either. Then there is Shepard’s potential breakout season. All four guys have been lining up all over the offensive formation. There are mismatches everywhere, all with potential for big plays. You can’t double-team everyone.

It's one thing to talk in May about the weapons, but to see them all on the field together in padded practices is another. I can’t wait to see them operate in game situations. I have no idea what opposing defensive coordinators are going to do. It’s going to be a lot of fun.
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Sterling Shepard - WR -  Giants

Sterling Shepard caught 7-of-7 targets for 78 yards in Friday's preseason game against the Jets.

Shepard closes the book on the preseason with 10 catches for 114 yards. Although Eli Manning is in a full-on fade, his No. 2 receiver is looking like a fantasy bargain at his current ADP of WR49.

Aug 24 - 11:13 PM
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Shepard and Coleman both got more interesting. Eli obviously is still Eli and the Giants seem to have no plan in place (still hoping for a Rosen trade) but I'd still pencil Shepard in for 80 catches in 2019. Could be a nice redraft value play. He enters free agency in 2020, so this will be a nice audition year. 

 
It sure seems like the Giants believe in him...

Giants signed WR Sterling Shepard to a four-year, $41 million extension.

Shepard was in the final year of his rookie contract. With Odell Beckham gone, the Giants are counting on him as their new No. 1 receiver. This is a nice deal for Shepard — who gets $21.3 million guaranteed. His $10.25 million AAV places him in the top-20 among wideouts. Coming off career highs in catches (66) and yards (872), Shepard is a good bet for his first 1,000-yard season in 2019.

 
Barkley should help every WR on this team. Won’t be many plays where 8 defenders aren’t trying to defend the run right? 

 
bostonfred said:
Eli's number one receiver has put up big numbers his entire career
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Just looked again, eli's number one receiver pretty consistently gets 10 plus targets per game.  He's had some good receivers - obj, obviously, Cruz, Steve Smith, Nicks and Burress - but all of them have had fantasy wr1 numbers as his number one, and all of them except obj have had mediocre numbers when they aren't getting peppered with targets.  Look at Steve Smith the year before and after his one year as eli's number one. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitSt02.htm

Burress 2005 (eli's rookie year) 166 targets.  Falls off a little in 06-07 but still getting peppered.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BurrPl00.htm

Nicks 2010 128 targets in 13 games. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/N/NickHa01.htm

Cruz 2011 didn't start the first couple weeks, ends up with 133 targets and a monster year.  2012 9 targets a game,  2013 back up to 10 before the injury

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CruzVi00/gamelog/2012/

Shepherd 2017 - obj played games 2,3,4 and 5. Shepherd played weeks 1 to 11. Shepherd got 63 targets (9 per game) in those 7 games and got 44 receptions for 512 yards and a touchdown. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/ShepSt00/gamelog/2017/

Shepherd 2018 he played the final 4 gsmes without obj and only had 31 targets, but the giants had been eliminated from the playoffs at that point.  I'm not sure what to draw from that.  

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/ShepSt00/gamelog/2018/

 
If we give shepherd about 9 targets a game - 145ish - we can look at his career stats to estimate his production. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/ShepSt00.htm

296 career targets, 190 career catches.  145 targets is almost half that, so cut his catches in half and you get about 95. 

Do the same with his 2286 yards and 14 touchdowns and subtract a little and you get about 

90 rec 1100 yards 7 touchdowns

That's a pretty blunt tool for estimating but it gives another perspective.  

 
bostonfred said:
If we give shepherd about 9 targets a game - 145ish - we can look at his career stats to estimate his production. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/ShepSt00.htm

296 career targets, 190 career catches.  145 targets is almost half that, so cut his catches in half and you get about 95. 

Do the same with his 2286 yards and 14 touchdowns and subtract a little and you get about 

90 rec 1100 yards 7 touchdowns

That's a pretty blunt tool for estimating but it gives another perspective.  
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That's similar to my estimate from another thread: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/748837-dynasty-value-discussion-thread/?do=findComment&comment=21801314

I think 145 targets is likely his ceiling. I'm expecting about 130.

 
cloppbeast said:
A lot of money for a receiver without a 1,000 yard season. 
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Is it? That's the going rate and it's only increasing. This was probably a smart move because the rate would've been higher next season when his contract expired and if he has a big season as the WR1 then he'd command even more on the open market. But back to the going rate... Tyrell Williams is getting $11.1M/yr, Crowder is getting $9.5M/year, Quincy Enunwa is somehow getting $9M/year, Lockett is getting $10.6M/year. Tyrell is the only one with a 1000 yard season and it was three years ago. I'm still trying to figure out how Landry is getting paid $15.1M/year. It's been three years since he put up 1000 yards and he's had over 300 targets combined in the last two years.

 
ffmail4me said:
Barkley should help every WR on this team. Won’t be many plays where 8 defenders aren’t trying to defend the run right? 
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Funny stat from last year but the Giants averaged more yards per pass when Barkley wasn't on the field than when he was.  

ETA: I don't think that is predictive of anything and sample size, OBJ injury, game script could all play a factor but it is an interesting stat. 

 
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