Football Playmaker Score 2016
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/playmaker-score-2016
Corey Coleman, Baylor
Playmaker Projection: 820 Yards
Playmaker Rating: 99.8%
Corey Coleman has a monster projection. As a junior, Coleman gained 1,363 receiving yards and caught an eye-popping 20 touchdowns. Because Baylor only passed the ball 389 times in 2016, Coleman scored a touchdown on 5.1 percent of Baylor's passes. That's an incredible ratio, which has only been topped by four elite college players:
Randy Moss,
Demaryius Thomas,
Dez Bryant, and
Larry Fitzgerald. Coleman also tested out well physically, posting a position-best 40.5-inch vertical jump at the NFL combine.
Notwithstanding these numbers, there are certainly legitimate concerns regarding Coleman's ability to transition to the NFL level. Coleman played in Art Briles' run-first offense at Baylor, which saw Coleman mostly run simple go, in, and hitch patterns. In that regard, Coleman is potentially similar to
Stephen Hill. Hill was highly regarded by Playmaker Score, but he was a tremendous bust.
There are reasons to believe that Coleman could succeed where Hill failed. First, Hill had relatively unimpressive aggregate statistics. Hill caught 28 passes for 820 yards and five touchdowns in his best season at Georgia Tech. However, he had great rate statistics because Georgia Tech attempted only 167 passes that year. Coleman, on the other hand, caught 74 passes for 1,363 yards and 20 touchdowns -- numbers that look good even before you adjust for team pass attempts. Moreover, Coleman's offense was run-heavy, but not to the same extreme as Hill's: Baylor passed 389 times in 2015.
Indeed, historically, wide receiver prospects from run-heavy offenses have been no less successful than those from more balanced offenses. The same offense that produced Hill also produced
Demaryius Thomas, who has been quite good. Similarly,
Marvin Harrison hailed from a run-heavy offense than only passed 210 times.
Another tempting comparison involves
Kendall Wright, a former Baylor wide receiver and first-round pick. The comparison only goes so far, however. Wright, unlike Coleman, entered the draft as a senior, and he did not hit 1,000 yards in a season during any of his first three years. Unlike Wright, Coleman was not a one-hit wonder -- he posted strong numbers as a sophomore too -- and his touchdown numbers (which are more predictive of success than yardage totals) were much better than Wright's. Moreover, even if we could make a good comparison between Coleman and Wright, that comparison itself would not be particularly helpful given Wright's career to date. Nobody will confuse Wright with
Odell Beckham Jr., but he has been far from an out-and-out bust. Wright's time in the NFL has been marred by injuries and shaky quarterback play on a bad team, and he has still managed to put up some decent receiving numbers.
The bottom line is that you could fairly argue that Coleman is the second coming of
Jerry Rice, another
Stephen Hill, or anything in between. There is simply no way to quantify the amount, if any, that Baylor's offense contributed to Coleman's ridiculous numbers. Although Coleman's Playmaker Projection is higher than
Amari Cooper's projection last year, Coleman is certainly a much riskier prospect. That said, mid-first-round picks bust all the time, and a team in need of a wide receiver could do a lot worse than to select a player whose numbers suggest potential greatness.
Corey Coleman could be a ready-made fantasy star by Matt Harmon
http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000646290/article/corey-coleman-could-be-a-readymade-fantasy-star