Help me understand Superflex with regards to mediocre QBs (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

Is it me or are too many bad QBs being taken in SuperFlex leagues before great prospects at other positions? How's that Zach Wilson working out? Bryce Young is not looking very good right now, but could improve. I'm sure fantasy owners wish they had do overs for the likes of Mitch Trubisky, Trey Lance, Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones, Mac Jones, Drew Lock, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota. This year somebody will take Bo Nix (seems to have been playing college ball forever) over Trayveon Henderson. Someone will take J J McCarthy over Henderson and possibly over some very good WR prospects. I know in SF you have to roll the dice on some of these guys, because trading for an elite QB in SF is damn near impossible, but I wonder if it isn't the best strategy?

 

[wdh76]

How did Troy Williamson work out? How about Q Johnson in SD? Toney was a steal for people who took him right?


Come on now.....

 

[Mitchie]

Is it me or are too many bad QBs being taken in SuperFlex leagues before great prospects at other positions? How's that Zach Wilson working out? Bryce Young is not looking very good right now, but could improve. I'm sure fantasy owners wish they had do overs for the likes of Mitch Trubisky, Trey Lance, Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones, Mac Jones, Drew Lock, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota. This year somebody will take Bo Nix (seems to have been playing college ball forever) over Trayveon Henderson. Someone will take J J McCarthy over Henderson and possibly over some very good WR prospects. I know in SF you have to roll the dice on some of these guys because trading for an elite QB in SF is damn near impossible, but I wonder if it isn't the best strategy?

well it's a good question but i think you answered it, it's so hard to get an elite QB you have to take your shot sometimes. even if it's not mathematically/logically the right decision. got to be in it to win it, just like playing the lottery. i overdrafted Levis last year as i had nothing in the way of youth at QB, got a few snide comments in the group chat. now he may fall flat on his face, may even happen next week or next month but at least right now it's looking like might have been a smart pick. If you were lucky enough to end up w/ Stroud you're looking pretty smart and just maybe are set at QB for many years.

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm sure those who got Brock Purdy off the WW in SF are happy.

edit: Aiden O'Connell may end up fitting that mold as well. I'm sure his current owners in SF are intrigued and didn't have to waste a 1st round pick on him.

 

[JohnnyU]

How did Troy Williamson work out? How about Q Johnson in SD? Toney was a steal for people who took him right?


Come on now.....

FYI, I didn't draft either of those WRs in fantasy, but it's a little early to write off Quentin Johnston isn't it? People always forget the "t" in his last name

 

[farfromforgotten]

NFL teams take those QBs high. On the flip side… how is it any better when people take a RB at the end of round 1, say the 7th or so to go, who was drafted by an NFL team in the 4th round?

I play in SF and nonSF leagues, fwiw.

 

[wdh76]

How did Troy Williamson work out? How about Q Johnson in SD? Toney was a steal for people who took him right?


Come on now.....

FYI, I didn't draft either of those WRs in fantasy, but it's a little early to write off Quentin Johnston isn't it? People always forget the "t" in his last name

Thanks for pointing out the forgtten T.

Was the point of this post to point out people you did not draft that busted, or to talk about why poeple take players that bust in SF? You point out QBs that are not top tier that are drafted in SF early, but fail to understand that players are drafted early at EVERY position that bust....

I guess I should have said JohnsTon is not looking good right now too for those who drafted him.

People gamble all the time on draft picks, why hate on SF?

 

[Gally]

Much of this is also dependent upon the scoring system. A SF designed properly doesn't necessitate playing a QB in the SF spot. It should be an option and that quality players at other positions should be realistic options for that position. The proper idea for SF is that it elevates the QB value but not to the point that it overtakes everything when you compare similar tiered players. They should be somewhat equivalent across tiers.

Not to your initial point of forcing QB's out of necessity that is also somewhat a fallacy. The objective is to draft a starting player that will help your roster for many years. You shouldn't over reach just because a player is position X. It's the same reason you shouldn't draft for need in a rookie draft. Reaching for a guy because you need that position doesn't help if he doesn't hit. It's better to get a position of strength that hits. It is kind of the same here. Now position scarcity may prop up a guy some but you still need to believe that player has a better than average chance at hitting.

Now I have been bitten by this a few times. I took Malik Willis over better players but I thought the upside was worth the risk. I was wrong. But I have also done that with WR's and RB's as well. Fact is I missed on my evaluation. I also passed on Deshaun Watson his rookie draft because I didn't believe in him. Again, a miss in evaluation (at the time). But that is on me.

I don't think SF should skew things drastically if the league is set up properly. It also has a component tied to the league members and how they value the position and players. If everyone hoards QB's then that becomes a bit of self fulfilling prophecy too. But sometimes it works out to buck that trend and capitalize on them forcing bad picks just because they are QB's.

 

[JohnnyU]

How did Troy Williamson work out? How about Q Johnson in SD? Toney was a steal for people who took him right?


Come on now.....

FYI, I didn't draft either of those WRs in fantasy, but it's a little early to write off Quentin Johnston isn't it? People always forget the "t" in his last name

Thanks for pointing out the forgtten T.

Was the point of this post to point out people you did not draft that busted, or to talk about why poeple take players that bust in SF? You point out QBs that are not top tier that are drafted in SF early, but fail to understand that players are drafted early at EVERY position that bust....

I guess I should have said JohnsTon is not looking good right now too for those who drafted him.

People gamble all the time on draft picks, why hate on SF?

My point is to better understand why reaching for mediocre QBs in SF is the preferred strategy? Did anyone really believe Zach Wilson or Mac Jones deserved to be taken over some better prospects at other positions? I suppose people reach because of how important the QB position is in SF. I get it. I'm just wondering if SF strategy will change over time, or if this strategy is set in stone.

 

[-OZ-]

Nobody would ever take Trey Lance over Jamar Chase!

 

[JohnnyU]

NFL teams take those QBs high. On the flip side… how is it any better when people take a RB at the end of round 1, say the 7th or so to go, who was drafted by an NFL team in the 4th round?

I play in SF and nonSF leagues, fwiw.

Perhaps QB is a more risky evaluation, but my guess is that it would be nice to minimize the risk of taking so many of these types of QBs in the first round of SF drafts. Or is it a foregone conclusion you have to keep doing it until you hit on one?

 

[-OZ-]

How did Troy Williamson work out? How about Q Johnson in SD? Toney was a steal for people who took him right?


Come on now.....

FYI, I didn't draft either of those WRs in fantasy, but it's a little early to write off Quentin Johnston isn't it? People always forget the "t" in his last name

Thanks for pointing out the forgtten T.

Was the point of this post to point out people you did not draft that busted, or to talk about why poeple take players that bust in SF? You point out QBs that are not top tier that are drafted in SF early, but fail to understand that players are drafted early at EVERY position that bust....

I guess I should have said JohnsTon is not looking good right now too for those who drafted him.

People gamble all the time on draft picks, why hate on SF?

My point is to better understand why reaching for mediocre QBs in SF is the preferred strategy? Did anyone really believe Zach Wilson or Mac Jones deserved to be taken over some better prospects at other positions? I suppose people reach because of how important the QB position is in SF. I get it. I'm just wondering if SF strategy will change over time, or if this strategy is set in stone.

A lot depends on scoring system.

 

[wdh76]

JonnyU,

Ho how many times in starard leagues did guys like Zach Charbonnet go before Stroud? Why do "Backup" RBs go so early? Why do people reach for every RB that might get playing time?

In SF, a little more value is added, maybe in some leagues a little to much. But to me, standard leagues overvalue RBs and WRs compared to QBs.

 

[TartanLion]

NFL teams themselves struggle to evaluate QBs all the way up to drafting them. Given that rookie drafts occur before they even take a snap in the NFL is it any surprise that SuperFlex players make mistakes ? The upside of someone who can score 25+ points almost every week can be too enticing I guess

Take Stroud for example. People can revise this all they want but how he was going to fare in the league was almost split down the middle until he started playing this season

 

[Enzo....the Baker]

NFL teams take those QBs high. On the flip side… how is it any better when people take a RB at the end of round 1, say the 7th or so to go, who was drafted by an NFL team in the 4th round?

I play in SF and nonSF leagues, fwiw.

Perhaps QB is a more risky evaluation, but my guess is that it would be nice to minimize the risk of taking so many of these types of QBs in the first round of SF drafts. Or is it a foregone conclusion you have to keep doing it until you hit on one?

It's also a cornerstone piece in superflex. When u hit on one, u should have him for 15 years. Get 2 of em, it gives your team some time to put together the remaining roster.

I think bc of that longevity, it gives a little more latitude to lesser bona fide can't miss prospects at qb. Maybe it becomes forced also...ie, taking tribusky with rose colored glasses

U cite Henderson as an example above. My first thoughts are injury history, durability, and extremely short. All factors that may separate him from a qb and certainly vice versa. Very subjective

 

[JohnnyU]

NFL teams take those QBs high. On the flip side… how is it any better when people take a RB at the end of round 1, say the 7th or so to go, who was drafted by an NFL team in the 4th round?

I play in SF and nonSF leagues, fwiw.

Perhaps QB is a more risky evaluation, but my guess is that it would be nice to minimize the risk of taking so many of these types of QBs in the first round of SF drafts. Or is it a foregone conclusion you have to keep doing it until you hit on one?

It's also a cornerstone piece in superflex. When u hit on one, u should have him for 15 years. Get 2 of em, it gives your team some time to put together the remaining roster.

I think bc of that longevity, it gives a little more latitude to lesser bona fide can't miss prospects at qb. Maybe it becomes forced also...ie, taking tribusky with rose colored glasses

U cite Henderson as an example above. My first thoughts are injury history, durability, and extremely short. All factors that may separate him from a qb and certainly vice versa. Very subjective

I don't think Zach Wilson or Mac Jones will have longevity. Neither do I think Kenny Pickett will. I wonder if Bryce Young will, but I suppose he still could.

 

[ZWK]

1. Upside. The top QBs are ridiculously valuable in superflex. Someone like Mahomes or Josh Allen is generally one of the top 5 most valuable fantasy players each season, and they do it year after year for long careers, with more consistency & much more longevity than players at other positions. Taking a 1st round QB gives you a shot at those guys. And note that Mahomes & Allen weren't consensus elite prospects like Lawrence/Burrow, so unless you were unusually good at player evaluation, in order to get them you had to take a shot at a larger pool of QB prospects.

2. Scarcity. Even a bust like Trubisky or Daniel Jones often holds down an NFL starting job for a few years. Starting a non-QB in your superflex spot is a significant disadvantage even compared to a mediocre QB like those guys (in most scoring formats), and with only 32 NFL teams there are barely enough QBs to go around, so these guys do help your team just by being a starting NFL QB who you can put in your lineup if you don't have 2 good QBs active that week. And Trubisky & Jones both actually managed to have a season as a low-end fantasy QB1.

3. Trade value. This one depends on your league, but sometimes you can trade a QB bust for a small loss after a bad rookie season (I did this with Blake Bortles & Sam Darnold) or for a profit after a spike year (like Daniel Jones this past offseason). Though my sense is that this doesn't work as well as it used to - "draft rookie QBs, sell them after their first season if they struggle" was a good approach 5 years ago, but now rookie QBs cost more than they used to and people downgrade young QBs more than they used to for a bad rookie season.

 

[Enzo....the Baker]

NFL teams take those QBs high. On the flip side… how is it any better when people take a RB at the end of round 1, say the 7th or so to go, who was drafted by an NFL team in the 4th round?

I play in SF and nonSF leagues, fwiw.

Perhaps QB is a more risky evaluation, but my guess is that it would be nice to minimize the risk of taking so many of these types of QBs in the first round of SF drafts. Or is it a foregone conclusion you have to keep doing it until you hit on one?

It's also a cornerstone piece in superflex. When u hit on one, u should have him for 15 years. Get 2 of em, it gives your team some time to put together the remaining roster.

I think bc of that longevity, it gives a little more latitude to lesser bona fide can't miss prospects at qb. Maybe it becomes forced also...ie, taking tribusky with rose colored glasses

U cite Henderson as an example above. My first thoughts are injury history, durability, and extremely short. All factors that may separate him from a qb and certainly vice versa. Very subjective

I don't think Zach Wilson or Mac Jones will have longevity. Neither do I think Kenny Pickett will. I wonder if Bryce Young will, but I suppose he still could.

Careful on that limb Johnny

 

[farfromforgotten]

How did Troy Williamson work out? How about Q Johnson in SD? Toney was a steal for people who took him right?


Come on now.....

FYI, I didn't draft either of those WRs in fantasy, but it's a little early to write off Quentin Johnston isn't it? People always forget the "t" in his last name

Thanks for pointing out the forgtten T.

Was the point of this post to point out people you did not draft that busted, or to talk about why poeple take players that bust in SF? You point out QBs that are not top tier that are drafted in SF early, but fail to understand that players are drafted early at EVERY position that bust....

I guess I should have said JohnsTon is not looking good right now too for those who drafted him.

People gamble all the time on draft picks, why hate on SF?

My point is to better understand why reaching for mediocre QBs in SF is the preferred strategy? Did anyone really believe Zach Wilson or Mac Jones deserved to be taken over some better prospects at other positions? I suppose people reach because of how important the QB position is in SF. I get it. I'm just wondering if SF strategy will change over time, or if this strategy is set in stone.

A lot depends on scoring system.

This is pretty much all it boils down to. In my SF league Richardson, Young, and Stroud went 2, 3, and 4. My own team has never started more than one QB, as Fields is all I have, and when he went down I still went 3-2 in those games with no starting QB. So they aren’t the only way to win. At least in my league. In other SF leagues this may not be possible however.

 

[JohnnyU]

NFL teams take those QBs high. On the flip side… how is it any better when people take a RB at the end of round 1, say the 7th or so to go, who was drafted by an NFL team in the 4th round?

I play in SF and nonSF leagues, fwiw.

Perhaps QB is a more risky evaluation, but my guess is that it would be nice to minimize the risk of taking so many of these types of QBs in the first round of SF drafts. Or is it a foregone conclusion you have to keep doing it until you hit on one?

It's also a cornerstone piece in superflex. When u hit on one, u should have him for 15 years. Get 2 of em, it gives your team some time to put together the remaining roster.

I think bc of that longevity, it gives a little more latitude to lesser bona fide can't miss prospects at qb. Maybe it becomes forced also...ie, taking tribusky with rose colored glasses

U cite Henderson as an example above. My first thoughts are injury history, durability, and extremely short. All factors that may separate him from a qb and certainly vice versa. Very subjective

I don't think Zach Wilson or Mac Jones will have longevity. Neither do I think Kenny Pickett will. I wonder if Bryce Young will, but I suppose he still could.

Careful on that limb Johnny

Yeah, I feel like Wile E. Coyote in the Bugs Bunny Roadrunner hour.

 

[-OZ-]

How did Troy Williamson work out? How about Q Johnson in SD? Toney was a steal for people who took him right?


Come on now.....

FYI, I didn't draft either of those WRs in fantasy, but it's a little early to write off Quentin Johnston isn't it? People always forget the "t" in his last name

Thanks for pointing out the forgtten T.

Was the point of this post to point out people you did not draft that busted, or to talk about why poeple take players that bust in SF? You point out QBs that are not top tier that are drafted in SF early, but fail to understand that players are drafted early at EVERY position that bust....

I guess I should have said JohnsTon is not looking good right now too for those who drafted him.

People gamble all the time on draft picks, why hate on SF?

My point is to better understand why reaching for mediocre QBs in SF is the preferred strategy? Did anyone really believe Zach Wilson or Mac Jones deserved to be taken over some better prospects at other positions? I suppose people reach because of how important the QB position is in SF. I get it. I'm just wondering if SF strategy will change over time, or if this strategy is set in stone.

A lot depends on scoring system.

This is pretty much all it boils down to. In my SF league Richardson, Young, and Stroud went 2, 3, and 4. My own team has never started more than one QB, as Fields is all I have, and when he went down I still went 3-2 in those games with no starting QB. So they aren’t the only way to win. At least in my league. In other SF leagues this may not be possible however.

FWIW, I won the championship last year after starting out the year with Tom Brady, Trey Lance, Sam Darnold and Ryan Tannehill. The team I beat in the SB had Burrow and Mahomes.

The point about continued value is right. I traded Trey Lance for the 1.12 this year (Kincaid).

 

[renesauz]

I think it helps to take a good hard look at what NON superflex brings.....which is generally that QB's are significantly less importnat commodities then WRs and RBs, barely more drafted then TEs. IN many league setups there might be a slight over=correction, but TBH it makes far far more sense for QBs to be by far the most valuable assets then for them to be among the least valuable assets.

It makes zero sense for multiple NFL starting QBs to be sitting on a waiver wire

 

[Ilov80s]

I just think in general, people make some backs in dynasty. Regardless of position. It happens to us all of course but some picks are just much more obviously sketchy.

 

[titusbramble]

Surely this is the exact opposite of the "why is someone taking elijah mitchell ahead of jared goff" argument

 

[Tonycarpenter]

Johnny U, just seeing this.

I think there are a few factors:

1. League settings: I'm in 1xSF league redraft and 1xDynasty 2QB league. In both leagues all TDs = 6pts. So QBs can outscore other players. Part of it might be league settings.
2. NFL is more of a passing league than it has been and Less RB Dominant. LT. MFaulk, Edgerrin, Steven Jackson. Shaun Alexander types. Nobody's getting 30totes a game and unlikely to get 4TDs like priest Homes or Larry Johnson whoever.
3. Shelf life: WRs typically last longer than RBs and TEs don't often emerge for a couple of years. QBs if you get a good one can play 10-15years. WRs probably 9-11.
4. Value perception. You can build a roster very well but taking best available talent as described. Justin Herbert was acquired in the 2nd round of our rookie draft. Jalen Hurts in the 3rd. Murray, Burrow and Lawrence were all consecutive QBs taken #1 overall.
5. Owner Philosophy: I'm am always looking for value in the sense that I want a lot of it so I can spend it to acquire elite players playing at a high level at the same time. For this reason, i typically have to remind myself during the draft to take best available talent over situation or team need. IF B.A.T is in a good situation AND fits my roster needs that's great. ADAM doesn't do well in our league but isn't bad either: He has drafted : 2019: 1.05 Marquise Brown. 2020. 1.02 C.E.H, 2021. Z.Wilson, 2022. K.Pickett. He'll have the 1.02 2024 draft pick. He needs a QB instead of Marvin Harrison. I'm going to help him make that decision hopefully. Adam drafts based on Roster need. He did get Deebo Samuel in the 3rd round in 2019.
6. Trade Bait. I might grab a mediocre QB because...I don't know everything. QBs hold their value with upside typically if they can maintain the buzz or promise of some upside.
7. RB last: As a top team in my dynasty league. I typically try to fill in the pieces of a my dynasty starting Roster based on Scoring Advantages: QB1, QB2, WR1, W2, WR3 TE1, RB1 RB2 in that order. BUT i'll take a top tier talent or look to trade early before things are known on a guy that people who seem to be in the know like. Example> I will ahve 2x 1st round picks in 2024. I'm currently projected to make it to the final 4. So assume 2x picks between 7-10. I need a top 5 QB but I don't see the path to ownership yet. It'll be cheaper to try to draft a prospect even if I'm wrong. BUT I won't get them knowingly at 7-10. I can try to trade up for Marvin Harrison or Drake Maye. 1.02. 1.03 spot. But i could be getting the best available RB around that spot or best available TE or simply best available player. It seems that the RBs have more UDFA competing, contributing than before. You can acquire O'Donnell, Downing, Purdy, Levis? Heineke? Mullens. Dalton, Brisset. Winston.... but you can't necessarily count on them to be starters. You're taking Purdy in 3rd round of a rookie draft as a sleeper.
8. MISSES: Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, Will Grier, Trey Lance. Darwin Thompson, Hakeem Butler, Trey Sermon. These are players that didn't work out for me but I traded Baker for 2x 2nds. The rest I ate essentially. I used a 1.10 overall on Sermon but I had 6 of the top 15 picks.
9. Picks that have worked. Kindcaid, 2023, London, Olave, Pierce 2022, Waddle 2021 Tua....JK Dobbin briefly. 2020
10. Draft Position: I have' been in my title game 4 straight years and 2023 TBD. So I'm picking later and forced to trade up or acquired extra 1st round picks early on. I did decide that most of the good players are drafted in the top 15 picks +/- 5 depending on the draft. There will be sleepers but the quality is in this range. Even if they don't work out they can old their value due to draft capital typically for a1-2 years.

QB: Tua, DWatson, RWillson, TLance. EStick.
WR: JJefferson, AJBrown, JWaddle, COlave, DLondon, PukaNacua, TDell, CGodwin, Rondale Moore, Eli Moore.
RB: JTaylor, NChubb, JKDobbins, Tyjae Spears, TyChandler, AJDillon, Dameon Pierce, Rico Dowdle, Kendre Miller.
TE: Goedert/Pitts/Kincaid.

REcent Trades: TKelces for late 2024 1st and Garrett Wilson for Kyle Pitts. before the season started.

The ONLY WRs I drafted were Waddle, Olave, London. RMoore. Jefferson was WW add. AJBrown Same. Godwin was a throw player in 2018 trade. I pickuped Puka and Dell off FA before kick off week 1 maybe. Eli was a recent FA add.

There have not been any clear cut QB/RB advantages draft where that person stays healthy. Gets a great work load in a great system. established franchise that I can tell. Even Mahomes QB1 is having a "down year" Purdy. Mister Value Pick is having an MVP caliber season but he's not the league winner he's more of league value or week to week winner. I like his game as a QB2-3.