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Streaming Defense strategy (1 Viewer)

Judge Smails

Judge Smails

Footballguy
Sucks.  Dolphins give up 430 yards to the decimated Browns at home? Dallas really does nothing at home vs. the hapless, injured Bears? Color me burned.  Never again.  Mediocre defenses are just that.  Expect them to play down to their opponent.

 
I'm in the same boat.  Three weeks, three strikes....courtesy of the NY Giants this week.  I didn't truly believe in the Minny or Philly defenses and now they are gone.

 
I'm so fricken cute.  Dropped KC in my local for the Fish.  I want to punch myself in the face right now. 

 
I'm the biggest idiot.  Dropped my backup QB (plenty available) to pick up the Dolphins D.  Thought it was worth it to give me a better chance to win this week's game.  Every win is important, right?

On my bench? The Vikings AND Eagles...

 
Dropped the 23 point Bills D to play the 6 point Dolphins...somehow still have the high score despite that and a Kelvin goose egg.

 
I'm going to lose because I sat the Vikings D for Miami. I'm going to use this loss a learning experience that I am never going to stream again! I'm just picking the best defense I can and rolling with them. 

 
Right. Stick with the tried and true defenses like Arizona.  :)

Defense is mostly a crapshoot. Not as much as kickers, but close. Whenever I'm debating on a streamer, I remind myself that I'll most likely get league-average points (in my case, ~7) from whichever D I pick. Yes, it's better to skew toward talent over match-up, but sometimes you're just going to get it wrong. Clearly my decision to start Miami over Philly didn't work out, but I think the thought process was solid.

Also, what is the alternative? Reach a few rounds early in the draft for an elite D? That doesn't have the best track record either. Also, streaming is always going to be a fallback strategy. If you luck into an elite D, sure, stick with them. But once you're in-season, there's not much you can really do.

 
Streaming has not worked out for me either this year. I've gone two weeks in a row vs Browns and it's not quite worked out. Eagles are best bet I have left for season long but they are on bye this week. Hopefully I can snag them next week and stand pat ROS.

 
After only two weeks of games there wasn't enough data to get very accurate reads on offenses and defenses. That's why FBG SOS isn't released until week 4. Each week the offensive and defensive rankings will become more accurate .

 
Judge Smails said:
Sucks.  Dolphins give up 430 yards to the decimated Browns at home? Dallas really does nothing at home vs. the hapless, injured Bears? Color me burned.  Never again.  Mediocre defenses are just that.  Expect them to play down to their opponent.
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How did Carolina and Seattle do this week?

 
zftcg said:
Right. Stick with the tried and true defenses like Arizona.  :)

Defense is mostly a crapshoot. Not as much as kickers, but close. Whenever I'm debating on a streamer, I remind myself that I'll most likely get league-average points (in my case, ~7) from whichever D I pick. Yes, it's better to skew toward talent over match-up, but sometimes you're just going to get it wrong. Clearly my decision to start Miami over Philly didn't work out, but I think the thought process was solid.

Also, what is the alternative? Reach a few rounds early in the draft for an elite D? That doesn't have the best track record either. Also, streaming is always going to be a fallback strategy. If you luck into an elite D, sure, stick with them. But once you're in-season, there's not much you can really do.
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I took the Vikings and Eagles - neither early.  Let's compare at the end of the year...

 
Judge Smails said:
I took the Vikings and Eagles - neither early.  Let's compare at the end of the year...
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OK, so what you're complaining about is that you scored on drafting two elite defenses late, and you're upset that you didn't figure out by Week 3 that they had both reached "start no matter what" status? I don't think that has anything to do with streaming. I think you made the right decision based on the information you had available to you, but based on what you know now you wouldn't do that again.

So yes, if you have MIN/PHI you should leave them in your line-up the rest of the year. In fact, I went out and stashed PHI before their bye week to ensure I had them.

But streaming assumes you don't have those options. At this point in the year, your choices are to stream or else stick with the mediocre D you drafted (LA, Buffalo, etc). In that situation, I think the choice is pretty clear.

 
I'm done streaming this season.  Was able to get MN and NE in both my leagues.  Setting it and forgetting it

 
zftcg said:
OK, so what you're complaining about is that you scored on drafting two elite defenses late, and you're upset that you didn't figure out by Week 3 that they had both reached "start no matter what" status? I don't think that has anything to do with streaming. I think you made the right decision based on the information you had available to you, but based on what you know now you wouldn't do that again.

So yes, if you have MIN/PHI you should leave them in your line-up the rest of the year. In fact, I went out and stashed PHI before their bye week to ensure I had them.

But streaming assumes you don't have those options. At this point in the year, your choices are to stream or else stick with the mediocre D you drafted (LA, Buffalo, etc). In that situation, I think the choice is pretty clear.
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I was just venting that I'm an idiot..

 
Judge Smails said:
I was just venting that I'm an idiot..
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Got it. In that case, carry on  :)

Seriously, though, one of my fantasy rules is to never beat myself up over a decision if I can justify the thought process that went into it. Yes, you would have been better off starting Siemian over Matt Ryan this week, but if you had asked anyone beforehand they would have said, "Of course you start Ryan." And no one was saying the Eagles were a good start against the best offense in the league.

Also, you got something very valuable out of this week: You now know that you have two elite defenses ROS. That will pay more dividends over the next couple months than how many points you got out of your defense in Week 3.

 
Streaming can work but you have to choose your streamer FIRST based on 'are they a decent to good defense?", THEN look at the matchup.  Precisely why I picked up Tennessee to play @ Hou over Wash @ Cle.  Wash has the better matchup (on paper) but they aren't a good defense so I can't trust them.  Tenn is solid.  worse (but not terrible) matchup, but I feel better about them.  

 
You have to go old school when you do this and follow that strategy that was called "middle ground" or whatever.  

When you go Fish vs. Browns, looking for the kill, you overlook that when it appears extremely obvious, you have to know the real coaches know the too...so they put in a plan to minimize a rookie QB getting killed and doing all the things that lead to great FF points.  Instead, you find that middle ground and look at the matches where the defense is decent to good and matching against a team where there are no restrictions but happen to be open to getting creamed (Kansas City and Jets). 

That KC/Jets game was a slam dunk when you think about it.  KC at home, decent defense, playing against a mediocre QB with WR health issues.  It was a good recipe.  

 
Shutout said:
You have to go old school when you do this and follow that strategy that was called "middle ground" or whatever.  

When you go Fish vs. Browns, looking for the kill, you overlook that when it appears extremely obvious, you have to know the real coaches know the too...so they put in a plan to minimize a rookie QB getting killed and doing all the things that lead to great FF points.  Instead, you find that middle ground and look at the matches where the defense is decent to good and matching against a team where there are no restrictions but happen to be open to getting creamed (Kansas City and Jets). 

That KC/Jets game was a slam dunk when you think about it.  KC at home, decent defense, playing against a mediocre QB with WR health issues.  It was a good recipe.  
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What about this week?

 
the spanker said:
What about this week?
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Rams would probably be my first choice for a team likely not considered a top defense for this week. 

The Steelers, I have a feeling, will have a good night.

The Jets probably have the potential to put up good numbers this week depending on the Wilson situation. 

 
zftcg said:
OK, so what you're complaining about is that you scored on drafting two elite defenses late, and you're upset that you didn't figure out by Week 3 that they had both reached "start no matter what" status?
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Oh that's not gloating, THIS is gloating. 

 
need2know said:
I'm done streaming this season.  Was able to get MN and NE in both my leagues.  Setting it and forgetting it
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I'm done too.   Picking NE back up off the WW after dropping them last week and sitting.  

 
I usually stream but drafted Minnesota. They have a permanent spot on the roster now. All you streamers just watch the Vegas lines. Small over/under + large spread = $. 

 
The more I'm looking at possible streamers, the more I like the Lions D this week.  Bears O-line very suspect, Stafford should put up points making Hoyer and Bears O, one dimensional leading to sacks and turnovers.

I like Indy as a 2nd choice.

 
Shutout said:
Rams would probably be my first choice for a team likely not considered a top defense for this week. 

The Steelers, I have a feeling, will have a good night.

The Jets probably have the potential to put up good numbers this week depending on the Wilson situation. 
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For you guys playing team defense, how did the Rams do?  Was it a decent suggestion?

 
Someone dropped the rams in my 12 man. Thoughts on putting a decent bid for them and rolling for the majority of the year? Streaming is just too much of a cluster this season. 

 
nighttime90 said:
Someone dropped the rams in my 12 man. Thoughts on putting a decent bid for them and rolling for the majority of the year? Streaming is just too much of a cluster this season. 
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15-20%

Kidding but yeah....streaming has been a disaster so far. Rams are borderline top ten and trending in the right direction. Set it and forget it.

Couple of challenging matchups after Thanksgiving but favorable Championship game (Wks 12-15)

 
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