QB/TE draft strategy 2023 (1 Viewer)

[ignatiusjreilly]

Time to revive another thread I've found useful in the past (apparently I never got around to posting one for 2022). I think it's worth considering your onesie strategies in tandem because they're so connected. If you grab a QB early, that probably means you need to wait on TE or you could find yourself missing out on a lot of middle-round RBs/WRs. On the other hand, if you try to push both positions to the later rounds, you could really screw yourself there. That's especially true because a) it's getting harder to harder to find late-round gems, especially at TE, and b) often when I punt a position, I like to take two lottery tickets, but doing that for both QB and TE means you're burning four roster spots on onesie positions.

Haven't had any drafts yet, so my strategy is still very much a work in progress, but this is my current thinking:

QB
I'm almost certainly not going to get any of the Big Three (Mahomes/Hurts/Allen), because I don't want to spend a first or second on them. Maybe if they fall to the third. I'd also consider Lamar in the 4th, but I don't expect him to last either. So I'm mostly targeting the middle tier of Fields/Herbert/Burrow/TLaw. I'd like to wait until the 5th, but not sure if that's possible. If I miss out on them, Tua's the only one left who I think has Top 6 upside, but obviously a ton of risk; I think I'd feel compelled to draft a backup. My ideal pairing would be Richardson if he falls enough, although I'm a little less bullish on him than others (I think his ceiling is probably more like QB8-10). If I miss out on all those guys, I'm probably plugging in someone in the Geno/Rodgers/Cousins/Goff tier, with the assumption that I will end up streaming the position. Other than Richardson, not sure I see any late round guys with upside; maybe Purdy?

TE
Again, I'm not shopping at the top of the market (maybe Andrews if he falls to the late 3rd/early 4th). I absolutely love Waller, especially if I can get him in the 6th. I'm also a sucker for Pitts even though I've had him each of his first two years and gotten burned, and would consider Goedert or Engram. But more likely, if I don't get Waller I wait and try to use Andrew Cooper's Yin-Yang TE drafting strategy (not linking because he works for a FBG competitor, but you can Google if you're interested in learning more). That probably means some combo of Schultz, Kincaid, Chig, Dulcich, Njoku, LaPorta or Juwan Johnson.

Put those together and what do I have? If my priority is getting Waller in the 5th or 6th, that probably means I miss out on the mid-tier QBs and need to target Tua a round or two later (Complicating factor: I play with a bunch of Dolphins homers and he will almost certainly go above ADP). I could also try taking one of the mid-tier QBs in the 5th and hope Waller falls to me in the 6th, though that might be too much draft capital on onesies.

One other caveat: I think too often in fantasy we overreact to single season trends rather than recognizing they were anomalies. I think what happened at QB last year, with a Big Three and everyone else underperforming, is unlikely to repeat. On the other hand, the deterioration of the TE position has been going on for a few years now. The years when you could find a late-round gem like Kittle (2018), Waller (2019) or Andrews (2019) in their breakout years seems to be past. The best we can hope for is someone like Engram last year, where he finished as TE5 but it was a hella bumpy ride to get there

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If Hock is still sitting there after 40-45 names come off the board, he's an easy grab in my book.
Weeks 8-16 he racked over 85 targets, 59 catches, only 3 TDs and you'd like to see more.

140 targets, 95 cacthes, 1,000+ yds and 7TDs, he's a primary target after JJ, the rookie sensation will only open up more lanes for Hock.
Career year this season across the board.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

QB8-Trevor Lawrence, roughly 55 picks in
Anytime in the late 4th/Mid 5th is a good time to pull the trigger.
This is about where I grabbed Joe Burrow last year, if for any reason Burrow slips, take him and live with him possibly missing a week or two from this calf injury.
Watson-Prescot-Tua in the late 7th/8th/early 9th and then you start hitting the Aaron Rodgers/Jared Goff/Cousins/Geno Smith section of the draft.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

TE No 6 -Darren Waller NY Giants, camp reports terrific, was targeted quite a bit in preseason during the little time they were on the field
2019-90/1145/3Td
2020-107-q,q96-9TDs

His last 2 years in Oakland and Vegas were pretty turbulent with the end of Gruden, 3rd Head Coach in less than about 6 months by Jan of that off season...
Things have settled down, he's the focus for Jones who needs a big target near the end zone, Dabol is considered an offensive minded forward thinking type
Seems like there is a big plan here.

125 targets, 95 catches, 1,100 yds and 7+TDs as the Giants will still need to score often and imagine the shootouts with Philly and Dallas, should be a good year for him.

 

[kyoun1e]

This is the first year I can remember I'm targeting a QB and TE both relatively early.

Want one of Lamar/Fields/Herbert/Lawrence in rounds 4/5 and either Kelce in round 1, Andrews round 3, or Hock/Waller/Goedert ronds 5/6.

I'm finding there's a ton of opportunity to find value at RB and WR in rounds 6-9.

 

[Schmeabs]

TE No 6 -Darren Waller NY Giants, camp reports terrific, was targeted quite a bit in preseason during the little time they were on the field
2019-90/1145/3Td
2020-107-q,q96-9TDs

His last 2 years in Oakland and Vegas were pretty turbulent with the end of Gruden, 3rd Head Coach in less than about 6 months by Jan of that off season...
Things have settled down, he's the focus for Jones who needs a big target near the end zone, Dabol is considered an offensive minded forward thinking type
Seems like there is a big plan here.

125 targets, 95 catches, 1,100 yds and 7+TDs as the Giants will still need to score often and imagine the shootouts with Philly and Dallas, should be a good year for him.

Waller is hurt constantly. Not sure I can deal with that again.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

QB8-Trevor Lawrence, roughly 55 picks in
Anytime in the late 4th/Mid 5th is a good time to pull the trigger.
This is about where I grabbed Joe Burrow last year, if for any reason Burrow slips, take him and live with him possibly missing a week or two from this calf injury.
Watson-Prescot-Tua in the late 7th/8th/early 9th and then you start hitting the Aaron Rodgers/Jared Goff/Cousins/Geno Smith section of the draft.

I've already decided I'm not touching Watson (no pun intended). It's not a moral thing as in "It would be wrong to have him on my team", but it is a moral thing in terms of "I don't really feel like cheering for the guy." I find it even seeping somewhat into how I view Clevelend pass-catchers, since their success is tied directly to his. There is also the fact that we don't know if he's still good.

I'm a little down on Prescott, too. I just think his ceiling is limited, especially because he doesn't run anymore. There's a good chance that he and Tua end up finishing about the same, but there's a way higher chance that Tua jumps into the Top 5 than there is that Dak does. Dak also fits squarely in the "Phillip Rivers Zone", where he will never be good enough to be elite but is also a big enough name that you'll never feel comfortable dropping him for a streamer

 

[Ministry of Pain]

TE No 6 -Darren Waller NY Giants, camp reports terrific, was targeted quite a bit in preseason during the little time they were on the field
2019-90/1145/3Td
2020-107-q,q96-9TDs

His last 2 years in Oakland and Vegas were pretty turbulent with the end of Gruden, 3rd Head Coach in less than about 6 months by Jan of that off season...
Things have settled down, he's the focus for Jones who needs a big target near the end zone, Dabol is considered an offensive minded forward thinking type
Seems like there is a big plan here.

125 targets, 95 catches, 1,100 yds and 7+TDs as the Giants will still need to score often and imagine the shootouts with Philly and Dallas, should be a good year for him.

Waller is hurt constantly. Not sure I can deal with that again.

And that is definitely the problem with him. I can understand why many will pass on him, I also think if healthy that he can finish Top 3.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

This is the first year I can remember I'm targeting a QB and TE both relatively early.

Want one of Lamar/Fields/Herbert/Lawrence in rounds 4/5 and either Kelce in round 1, Andrews round 3, or Hock/Waller/Goedert ronds 5/6.

I'm finding there's a ton of opportunity to find value at RB and WR in rounds 6-9.

This is definitely true. I mentioned in another thread that I like the RBs in the 6th+ (Javonte, Herbert, Akers) much better than the guys in the 3-5 Dead Zone (Gibbs, Najee, Hall)

 

[Ministry of Pain]

QB8-Trevor Lawrence, roughly 55 picks in
Anytime in the late 4th/Mid 5th is a good time to pull the trigger.
This is about where I grabbed Joe Burrow last year, if for any reason Burrow slips, take him and live with him possibly missing a week or two from this calf injury.
Watson-Prescot-Tua in the late 7th/8th/early 9th and then you start hitting the Aaron Rodgers/Jared Goff/Cousins/Geno Smith section of the draft.

I've already decided I'm not touching Watson (no pun intended). It's not a moral thing as in "It would be wrong to have him on my team", but it is a moral thing in terms of "I don't really feel like cheering for the guy." I find it even seeping somewhat into how I view Clevelend pass-catchers, since their success is tied directly to his. There is also the fact that we don't know if he's still good.

I'm a little down on Prescott, too. I just think his ceiling is limited, especially because he doesn't run anymore. There's a good chance that he and Tua end up finishing about the same, but there's a way higher chance that Tua jumps into the Top 5 than there is that Dak does. Dak also fits squarely in the "Phillip Rivers Zone", where he will never be good enough to be elite but is also a big enough name that you'll never feel comfortable dropping him for a streamer

Let's go back to Lawrence as QB 8, it doesn't sound like you want the guys after him, I'd try and lock down the position.
Guys love to say they are taking QB 14 off the board but the reality is guys like Mahomes don't just edge out most QBs at 2 pts a week, they tend to throttle teams when they post 40+
Nobody wants to hear how vital QBs are. I love Mahomes, Hurts, Burrow, Lawrence, would love to wrap my arms around Herbert but the head coach there is annoying. Hoping Kellen Moore showcases just how good this guy is, Miami could be in for a rude awakening Week 1 in Los Angeles.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

QB8-Trevor Lawrence, roughly 55 picks in
Anytime in the late 4th/Mid 5th is a good time to pull the trigger.
This is about where I grabbed Joe Burrow last year, if for any reason Burrow slips, take him and live with him possibly missing a week or two from this calf injury.
Watson-Prescot-Tua in the late 7th/8th/early 9th and then you start hitting the Aaron Rodgers/Jared Goff/Cousins/Geno Smith section of the draft.

I've already decided I'm not touching Watson (no pun intended). It's not a moral thing as in "It would be wrong to have him on my team", but it is a moral thing in terms of "I don't really feel like cheering for the guy." I find it even seeping somewhat into how I view Clevelend pass-catchers, since their success is tied directly to his. There is also the fact that we don't know if he's still good.

I'm a little down on Prescott, too. I just think his ceiling is limited, especially because he doesn't run anymore. There's a good chance that he and Tua end up finishing about the same, but there's a way higher chance that Tua jumps into the Top 5 than there is that Dak does. Dak also fits squarely in the "Phillip Rivers Zone", where he will never be good enough to be elite but is also a big enough name that you'll never feel comfortable dropping him for a streamer

Let's go back to Lawrence as QB 8, it doesn't sound like you want the guys after him, I'd try and lock down the position.
Guys love to say they are taking QB 14 off the board but the reality is guys like Mahomes don't just edge out most QBs at 2 pts a week, they tend to throttle teams when they post 40+
Nobody wants to hear how vital QBs are. I love Mahomes, Hurts, Burrow, Lawrence, would love to wrap my arms around Herbert but the head coach there is annoying. Hoping Kellen Moore showcases just how good this guy is, Miami could be in for a rude awakening Week 1 in Los Angeles.

Yeah, I really love TLaw this year. He made huge strides from Y1 to Y2, and I see no reason he couldn't take a bigger leap in Y3 (although I suppose Herbert's experience last year should remind us of how it can go wrong).

Big question for me is what to do if I'm at the beginning of a QB run in the 5th or 6th and am deciding between TLaw, Fields and Herbert. I think I would need to go with Fields because of the rushing floor, plus I think he's also positioned to make a big leap. But man, I'd really love to be proven right on Lawrence

 

[Ministry of Pain]

QB8-Trevor Lawrence, roughly 55 picks in
Anytime in the late 4th/Mid 5th is a good time to pull the trigger.
This is about where I grabbed Joe Burrow last year, if for any reason Burrow slips, take him and live with him possibly missing a week or two from this calf injury.
Watson-Prescot-Tua in the late 7th/8th/early 9th and then you start hitting the Aaron Rodgers/Jared Goff/Cousins/Geno Smith section of the draft.

I've already decided I'm not touching Watson (no pun intended). It's not a moral thing as in "It would be wrong to have him on my team", but it is a moral thing in terms of "I don't really feel like cheering for the guy." I find it even seeping somewhat into how I view Clevelend pass-catchers, since their success is tied directly to his. There is also the fact that we don't know if he's still good.

I'm a little down on Prescott, too. I just think his ceiling is limited, especially because he doesn't run anymore. There's a good chance that he and Tua end up finishing about the same, but there's a way higher chance that Tua jumps into the Top 5 than there is that Dak does. Dak also fits squarely in the "Phillip Rivers Zone", where he will never be good enough to be elite but is also a big enough name that you'll never feel comfortable dropping him for a streamer

Let's go back to Lawrence as QB 8, it doesn't sound like you want the guys after him, I'd try and lock down the position.
Guys love to say they are taking QB 14 off the board but the reality is guys like Mahomes don't just edge out most QBs at 2 pts a week, they tend to throttle teams when they post 40+
Nobody wants to hear how vital QBs are. I love Mahomes, Hurts, Burrow, Lawrence, would love to wrap my arms around Herbert but the head coach there is annoying. Hoping Kellen Moore showcases just how good this guy is, Miami could be in for a rude awakening Week 1 in Los Angeles.

Yeah, I really love TLaw this year. He made huge strides from Y1 to Y2, and I see no reason he couldn't take a bigger leap in Y3 (although I suppose Herbert's experience last year should remind us of how it can go wrong).

Big question for me is what to do if I'm at the beginning of a QB run in the 5th or 6th and am deciding between TLaw, Fields and Herbert. I think I would need to go with Fields because of the rushing floor, plus I think he's also positioned to make a big leap. But man, I'd really love to be proven right on Lawrence

Murray, Lamar Jackson...I like to go with the big arms over someone who relies mostly on their legs, in case things don't go as planned
Feels like there is more inherent risk but I could be wrong

 

[Scoresman]

Kelce or bust in my Auction league.

I do a lot of research on my league's tendencies, and how player prices based on VBD compare to expected player prices, and I am almost certain Kelce will be on my team.

History says Kelce has gone for an average of $23 the last few years, but VBD is telling me that Kelce is worth taking up to $31 ($100 cap league). I dont think many people realize just how valuable that enormous gap is between Kelce and the rest of the pack.

I also use excel's Solver to come up with the optimum team based on expected player prices, tweaking these prices occasionally to see what team composition patterns emerge, and it almost always includes a top 5 QB.

How I would translate this to a snake draft is to not be afraid to take Kelce AND a top QB.

 

[TripItUp]

QB is very league dependent, but in general if I don't get a top 3 QB I'm targeting Herbert a few rounds later at ADP. If I miss Herbert, I'm going Geno/Cousins in back to back later rounds.

TE I always pass on Kelce, and just hunt for value if any of the top 8 slide....except for Pitts, I don''t want him at all. Late TE strategy is Njoku/Chig in back to back rounds at ADP.

 

[NajehHejan]

Great thread. I'm been thinking this a lot. I will spend an early pick on Mahomes, Allen, or Hurts. I punted on QB last year and it was a mess. I am sick of guys like Mahomes/Allen/Hurts putting up 40+ on me while I pray to get 20 from my middling QB. Tons of value at RB and WR this year, as others have said. Come heck or high water, I'm drafting Waller this year at TE. If I miss on him, I'll try to get Pitts (3rd time's a charm?)

 

[Gottabesweet]

In the minority here but at 24/25 overall 2.12 and 3.1 if Waddle isn’t there I may be tempted to pair Jefferson with Hurts and Andrews and then just load up on RB/WR rest of way.

 

[Timmay]

Very league specific for QB, but as much as I don't want to, (and I do think someone in my league will reach a little for Mahomes this year in the first). I am leaning towards taking Mahomes if he is there in the early 2nd or even Josh Allen in the late 2nd. My league gives 6 points per passing TD and Mahomes put up 489 points last year, 30 more points than Allen and 70 more points than Hurts and Burrow, and more than 100 points over TLaw, Geno, Cousins, Herbert, Fields. Especially after waiting on a QB last year and having to run out the likes of Russell Wilson and Tannehill that cost me multiple weeks.

If I miss out on Mahomes and Allen in the 2nd, I will try Hurts/Burrow/Jackson/Herbert (in that order) in the 3rd-5th, but that always worries me that a QB run will happen before me and I will miss out on one of these. Usually QB's start flying off the board starting in the 4th round. I want a top QB based on my scoring and can't afford to miss out.

TE: I will not try to get Kelce or Andrews. I like the idea of Waller or Hockenson in the 5th, but won't reach. If not i'll wait for Juwan Johnson later.

 

[Scoresman]

Are people not taking Kelce because of his age/potential decline or something else? Just about every VBD tool I've looked at this year justifies taking him as early as 1 or 2 overall, right there with Justin Jefferson. And this is with projections about 10-15% less than last year. So he still has a ceiling beyond this.

It just seems like such a no brainer to take him if you have an early to mid pick. As safe as a first round pick is ever going to get.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

After my last few mock drafts, I'm starting to realize I will probably have to make a choice between TLaw and Waller, because they both generally go around the 5th round in 12-teamers. It's possible I could get Waller in the 5th and hope Lawrence falls, but if that happens I would definitely need a backup plan (and, as mentioned, the draft I have coming up on Monday is filled with Dolphins homers, so I can't assume Tua will be there in the 6th/7th. Last year in that league, someone took him in the 4th)

 

[Wrigley]

QB is very league dependent, but in general if I don't get a top 3 QB I'm targeting Herbert a few rounds later at ADP. If I miss Herbert, I'm going Geno/Cousins in back to back later rounds.

TE I always pass on Kelce, and just hunt for value if any of the top 8 slide....except for Pitts, I don''t want him at all. Late TE strategy is Njoku/Chig in back to back rounds at ADP.

In my mocks, I tend to find myself in the Geno/Cousins/Prescott range

I may even wait longer on TE, maybe Kincaid/LaPorta..Ferguson

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

QB is very league dependent, but in general if I don't get a top 3 QB I'm targeting Herbert a few rounds later at ADP. If I miss Herbert, I'm going Geno/Cousins in back to back later rounds.

TE I always pass on Kelce, and just hunt for value if any of the top 8 slide....except for Pitts, I don''t want him at all. Late TE strategy is Njoku/Chig in back to back rounds at ADP.

In my mocks, I tend to find myself in the Geno/Cousins/Prescott range

If I end up with one of those, I will try really hard to get Richardson, because he's the only late-round option I see with any upside (and even there, I think being a rookie caps his ceiling)

 

[wlwiles]

I think the middle is the best spot to draft from this year precisely because of this issue. I've done several mocks and always end up liking my teams when I mock from 5/6/7 spot because:

1. Grab Kelce in the first round, allowing me to completely ignore TE the rest of the way.
2. Can land one of Wilson/Waddle/Smitty/Olave in the second round
3. Grab one of Ridley/Metcalf/Tee/London in the third, or start your RB stable with Mixon/Henry/Hall/Jacobs..
4. Being in the middle helps to avoid QB runs, and allows you to pounce if someone slides by half a round or so - gives you a realistic shot at just about everyone between Allen and Lawrence.
5. Load up on WRs between rounds 2 through 5 (or 6), grab your QB along the way, and then start pounding RBs in the Pierce/Sanders/Akers/White/Kamara/Pacheco/Mattison range.
6. Don't go so RB heavy in a row that you ignore WR depth/bench.

Just did a 12 team mock from the 6 spot and I like this start a lot, despite it being almost an unintentional zero RB:
1 - Kelce
2 - Waddle - Mahomes went the next pick
3 - Ridley - Hurts and Allen went the next 2 picks
4 - Lamar - Burrow went two picks later
5 - Dotson - Herbert, Fields, TLaw all went this round
6 - D Pierce
7 - J Cook
8 - JSN
9 - BRob

I love having a realistic shot at any of the top QBs if I wanted them by being in the middle. Opted for Lamar as the 4th QB off the board mainly because I liked him better than what was available at WR (DJM, Jeudy, Godwin) and RB (there had just been an RB run prior, so I was looking at KW3 and Aaron Jones as best available.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

The more I think about it, the more I'm coming around to the view that, if I end up punting the position, the rookie TEs (Kincaid, LaPorta, Musgrave) are worth a late-round dart throw. Not because I think they're generational talents or anything, but because TE is such a dumpster fire, you might as well take someone with the possibility of Top 6 upside, and the unknown of those guys is far better than the known mediocrity of, say, Evertt, Conklin or Henry

 

[zeeshan2]

TEs: I can't do Pitts at all(iffy QB situation, down to 3rd in the pecking order after London and Bijan, general Arthur Smith foolery) and I like Kelce, Andrews, and Waller in that order. Obviously if Waller can stay healthy, a Waller-Jones stack could be really nice. I am a big fan of late round TEs this year; I know rookie TEs don't make a lot of noise but that's because they are usually blocked by veteran TEs. You got Laporta and Musgrave with possible 3 down roles here and they are going way late. Other ones I like are Juwan Johnson(Carr loved his TEs in Oakland/Vegas), Schultz, Njoku, Muth, Hunter Henry, Higbee, and Ferguson. I am going to also add in Conklin with the retirement of Davis; I think he gets more redzone looks here with Rodgers

QBs: So I like Hurts, Mahomes, Allen in that order but Lamar has so much potential with the new OC. The only problem is his injury history and not known as a person who will throw for a ton of passing yards. Burrow, Deshaun(although that Athletic piece has me scared a little), Herbert, Fields and T-Law after that. The slight concern with Fields is that he had a ton of long TD runs last year that isn't sustainable long term. After that I like going for Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, Geno Smith, Cousins and Geno. Not a fan of Dak with slight injury concerns, loss of Kellen Moore, and just honestly doesn't rush very much anymore

 

[VikingFrog]

I think the middle is the best spot to draft from this year precisely because of this issue. I've done several mocks and always end up liking my teams when I mock from 5/6/7 spot because:

1. Grab Kelce in the first round, allowing me to completely ignore TE the rest of the way.
2. Can land one of Wilson/Waddle/Smitty/Olave in the second round
3. Grab one of Ridley/Metcalf/Tee/London in the third, or start your RB stable with Mixon/Henry/Hall/Jacobs..
4. Being in the middle helps to avoid QB runs, and allows you to pounce if someone slides by half a round or so - gives you a realistic shot at just about everyone between Allen and Lawrence.
5. Load up on WRs between rounds 2 through 5 (or 6), grab your QB along the way, and then start pounding RBs in the Pierce/Sanders/Akers/White/Kamara/Pacheco/Mattison range.
6. Don't go so RB heavy in a row that you ignore WR depth/bench.

Just did a 12 team mock from the 6 spot and I like this start a lot, despite it being almost an unintentional zero RB:
1 - Kelce
2 - Waddle - Mahomes went the next pick
3 - Ridley - Hurts and Allen went the next 2 picks
4 - Lamar - Burrow went two picks later
5 - Dotson - Herbert, Fields, TLaw all went this round
6 - D Pierce
7 - J Cook
8 - JSN
9 - BRob

I love having a realistic shot at any of the top QBs if I wanted them by being in the middle. Opted for Lamar as the 4th QB off the board mainly because I liked him better than what was available at WR (DJM, Jeudy, Godwin) and RB (there had just been an RB run prior, so I was looking at KW3 and Aaron Jones as best available.

I’d be intrigued what WRs you could have had in the 4th.

I know it’s not the standard strategy, but I’d almost like your team more taking Mahomes there at pick 2.

But I’m personally not the worlds biggest Waddle fan. So maybe I’m just biased.

 

[Scoresman]

The more I think about it, the more I'm coming around to the view that, if I end up punting the position, the rookie TEs (Kincaid, LaPorta, Musgrave) are worth a late-round dart throw. Not because I think they're generational talents or anything, but because TE is such a dumpster fire, you might as well take someone with the possibility of Top 6 upside, and the unknown of those guys is far better than the known mediocrity of, say, Evertt, Conklin or Henry

Yeah, if I don't get Kelce I'm waiting until the very end of the TE tiers. It seems like every year we hear the same thing about the TEs in the middle and how they have ceilings of the top TEs and they never seem to quite pan out that way.

It's Kelce or punt for me, and I'm taking Kelce in the first if he's there.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Are people not taking Kelce because of his age/potential decline or something else? Just about every VBD tool I've looked at this year justifies taking him as early as 1 or 2 overall, right there with Justin Jefferson. And this is with projections about 10-15% less than last year. So he still has a ceiling beyond this.

It just seems like such a no brainer to take him if you have an early to mid pick. As safe as a first round pick is ever going to get.

The age is definitely something to consider. There has only been one 34-year-old TE with more than 1K receiving yards (Pete Retzelaff in 1965), and while I could certainly see Kelce becoming the second -- he is the only one to do it at 33, and one of only two to do it at 32) at some point the ride is going to come to an end.

 

[Scoresman]

Are people not taking Kelce because of his age/potential decline or something else? Just about every VBD tool I've looked at this year justifies taking him as early as 1 or 2 overall, right there with Justin Jefferson. And this is with projections about 10-15% less than last year. So he still has a ceiling beyond this.

It just seems like such a no brainer to take him if you have an early to mid pick. As safe as a first round pick is ever going to get.

The age is definitely something to consider. There has only been one 34-year-old TE with more than 1K receiving yards (Pete Retzelaff in 1965), and while I could certainly see Kelce becoming the second -- he is the only one to do it at 33, and one of only two to do it at 32) at some point the ride is going to come to an end.

Yeah I’m adding age based regression to all his stats and he still is just too far above everyone else.

Kielce is more comparable to a big bodied WR than a traditional TE. Most TEs spend a lot of time blocking which decreases their longevity and increases injury risk. He’s more comparable to a Larry Fitzgerald type.

He hasn’t shown signs of slowing down so far. Last year, he increased his numbers from the previous year in every category. He will definitely slow down as he enters his mid 30s but I’m banking on at least one more year of elite performance in that offense.

 

[wlwiles]

I think the middle is the best spot to draft from this year precisely because of this issue. I've done several mocks and always end up liking my teams when I mock from 5/6/7 spot because:

1. Grab Kelce in the first round, allowing me to completely ignore TE the rest of the way.
2. Can land one of Wilson/Waddle/Smitty/Olave in the second round
3. Grab one of Ridley/Metcalf/Tee/London in the third, or start your RB stable with Mixon/Henry/Hall/Jacobs..
4. Being in the middle helps to avoid QB runs, and allows you to pounce if someone slides by half a round or so - gives you a realistic shot at just about everyone between Allen and Lawrence.
5. Load up on WRs between rounds 2 through 5 (or 6), grab your QB along the way, and then start pounding RBs in the Pierce/Sanders/Akers/White/Kamara/Pacheco/Mattison range.
6. Don't go so RB heavy in a row that you ignore WR depth/bench.

Just did a 12 team mock from the 6 spot and I like this start a lot, despite it being almost an unintentional zero RB:
1 - Kelce
2 - Waddle - Mahomes went the next pick
3 - Ridley - Hurts and Allen went the next 2 picks
4 - Lamar - Burrow went two picks later
5 - Dotson - Herbert, Fields, TLaw all went this round
6 - D Pierce
7 - J Cook
8 - JSN
9 - BRob

I love having a realistic shot at any of the top QBs if I wanted them by being in the middle. Opted for Lamar as the 4th QB off the board mainly because I liked him better than what was available at WR (DJM, Jeudy, Godwin) and RB (there had just been an RB run prior, so I was looking at KW3 and Aaron Jones as best available.

I’d be intrigued what WRs you could have had in the 4th.

I know it’s not the standard strategy, but I’d almost like your team more taking Mahomes there at pick 2.

But I’m personally not the worlds biggest Waddle fan. So maybe I’m just biased.

I didn't save the results since it was just a mock, but the mid-4th is usually in the DJ Moore, London, Watson, Deebo, Aiyuk range.

 

[skol asylum]

My draft is not quite over yet but I went Kittle at 5.2 and backed him up at 13.2 with Juwan Johnson. Waited on QB and took Richardson at 9.2 in a bit of a gamble and backed him up next round at 10.11 with Cousins. Top QBs went early in this 6pt passing TD league.

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[ignatiusjreilly]

My draft is not quite over yet but I went Kittle at 5.2 and backed him up at 13.2 with Juwan Johnson. Waited on QB and took Richardson at 9.2 in a bit of a gamble and backed him up next round at 10.11 with Cousins. Top QBs went early in this 6pt passing TD league.

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Other than the fact that I'm down on Kittle -- and I certainly could be wrong about that -- I think that's a good strategy. Johnson is definitely a candidate to be a breakout TE this year, and with QB, you can muddle through with Cousins until you see if Richardson is the real deal.'

Fun fact: In 2018 I absolutely killed my draft, including Mahomes in the 8th. But as a hedge, I drafted -- and started in Week 1 -- Marcus Mariota. Mahomes went absolutely nuts in Week 1, but fortunately I still won because I also had Tyreek. Obviously I felt OK dropping Mariota after that

 

[tommyGunZ]

Are people not taking Kelce because of his age/potential decline or something else? Just about every VBD tool I've looked at this year justifies taking him as early as 1 or 2 overall, right there with Justin Jefferson. And this is with projections about 10-15% less than last year. So he still has a ceiling beyond this.

It just seems like such a no brainer to take him if you have an early to mid pick. As safe as a first round pick is ever going to get.

The age is definitely something to consider. There has only been one 34-year-old TE with more than 1K receiving yards (Pete Retzelaff in 1965), and while I could certainly see Kelce becoming the second -- he is the only one to do it at 33, and one of only two to do it at 32) at some point the ride is going to come to an end.

Yeah I’m adding age based regression to all his stats and he still is just too far above everyone else.

Kielce is more comparable to a big bodied WR than a traditional TE. Most TEs spend a lot of time blocking which decreases their longevity and increases injury risk. He’s more comparable to a Larry Fitzgerald type.

He hasn’t shown signs of slowing down so far. Last year, he increased his numbers from the previous year in every category. He will definitely slow down as he enters his mid 30s but I’m banking on at least one more year of elite performance in that offense.

Think about Kielce is he could regress sharply this year, and still justify his 1st round status. Even if he drops > 20% to 80-1000-8, he's still giving you Top 15 WR numbers at TE.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Are people not taking Kelce because of his age/potential decline or something else? Just about every VBD tool I've looked at this year justifies taking him as early as 1 or 2 overall, right there with Justin Jefferson. And this is with projections about 10-15% less than last year. So he still has a ceiling beyond this.

It just seems like such a no brainer to take him if you have an early to mid pick. As safe as a first round pick is ever going to get.

The age is definitely something to consider. There has only been one 34-year-old TE with more than 1K receiving yards (Pete Retzelaff in 1965), and while I could certainly see Kelce becoming the second -- he is the only one to do it at 33, and one of only two to do it at 32) at some point the ride is going to come to an end.

Yeah I’m adding age based regression to all his stats and he still is just too far above everyone else.

Kielce is more comparable to a big bodied WR than a traditional TE. Most TEs spend a lot of time blocking which decreases their longevity and increases injury risk. He’s more comparable to a Larry Fitzgerald type.

He hasn’t shown signs of slowing down so far. Last year, he increased his numbers from the previous year in every category. He will definitely slow down as he enters his mid 30s but I’m banking on at least one more year of elite performance in that offense.

Think about Kielce is he could regress sharply this year, and still justify his 1st round status. Even if he drops > 20% to 80-1000-8, he's still giving you Top 15 WR numbers at TE.

See I wouldn't consider that to be first-round value. IMO he has to put up something close to last year's numbers to be worth it

 

[skol asylum]

My draft is not quite over yet but I went Kittle at 5.2 and backed him up at 13.2 with Juwan Johnson. Waited on QB and took Richardson at 9.2 in a bit of a gamble and backed him up next round at 10.11 with Cousins. Top QBs went early in this 6pt passing TD league.

Sleeper

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Other than the fact that I'm down on Kittle -- and I certainly could be wrong about that -- I think that's a good strategy. Johnson is definitely a candidate to be a breakout TE this year, and with QB, you can muddle through with Cousins until you see if Richardson is the real deal.'

Fun fact: In 2018 I absolutely killed my draft, including Mahomes in the 8th. But as a hedge, I drafted -- and started in Week 1 -- Marcus Mariota. Mahomes went absolutely nuts in Week 1, but fortunately I still won because I also had Tyreek. Obviously I felt OK dropping Mariota after that

I thought about gambling a bit and taking Waller instead of Kittle. I'd rather Waller had fell to me the next round but I didn't see that happening.

 

[Scoresman]

Are people not taking Kelce because of his age/potential decline or something else? Just about every VBD tool I've looked at this year justifies taking him as early as 1 or 2 overall, right there with Justin Jefferson. And this is with projections about 10-15% less than last year. So he still has a ceiling beyond this.

It just seems like such a no brainer to take him if you have an early to mid pick. As safe as a first round pick is ever going to get.

The age is definitely something to consider. There has only been one 34-year-old TE with more than 1K receiving yards (Pete Retzelaff in 1965), and while I could certainly see Kelce becoming the second -- he is the only one to do it at 33, and one of only two to do it at 32) at some point the ride is going to come to an end.

Yeah I’m adding age based regression to all his stats and he still is just too far above everyone else.

Kielce is more comparable to a big bodied WR than a traditional TE. Most TEs spend a lot of time blocking which decreases their longevity and increases injury risk. He’s more comparable to a Larry Fitzgerald type.

He hasn’t shown signs of slowing down so far. Last year, he increased his numbers from the previous year in every category. He will definitely slow down as he enters his mid 30s but I’m banking on at least one more year of elite performance in that offense.

Think about Kielce is he could regress sharply this year, and still justify his 1st round status. Even if he drops > 20% to 80-1000-8, he's still giving you Top 15 WR numbers at TE.

See I wouldn't consider that to be first-round value. IMO he has to put up something close to last year's numbers to be worth it

I actually did the math for my leagues because I’m really tuned in on Kelce. He can have a 11% drop in points before Justin Jefferson passes him as the best 1.01 or the most expensive budgeted player. I don’t know what percentage puts him out of the first round entirely

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

My draft is not quite over yet but I went Kittle at 5.2 and backed him up at 13.2 with Juwan Johnson. Waited on QB and took Richardson at 9.2 in a bit of a gamble and backed him up next round at 10.11 with Cousins. Top QBs went early in this 6pt passing TD league.

Sleeper

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Other than the fact that I'm down on Kittle -- and I certainly could be wrong about that -- I think that's a good strategy. Johnson is definitely a candidate to be a breakout TE this year, and with QB, you can muddle through with Cousins until you see if Richardson is the real deal.'

Fun fact: In 2018 I absolutely killed my draft, including Mahomes in the 8th. But as a hedge, I drafted -- and started in Week 1 -- Marcus Mariota. Mahomes went absolutely nuts in Week 1, but fortunately I still won because I also had Tyreek. Obviously I felt OK dropping Mariota after that

I thought about gambling a bit and taking Waller instead of Kittle. I'd rather Waller had fell to me the next round but I didn't see that happening.

Interesting. Based on my mocks I've been targeting Waller in the 6th with some success, but it's definitely a gamble. (And if I take him in the 5th, good chance I lose out on all the mid-tier QBs by the 6th)

 

[skol asylum]

My draft is not quite over yet but I went Kittle at 5.2 and backed him up at 13.2 with Juwan Johnson. Waited on QB and took Richardson at 9.2 in a bit of a gamble and backed him up next round at 10.11 with Cousins. Top QBs went early in this 6pt passing TD league.

Sleeper

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Other than the fact that I'm down on Kittle -- and I certainly could be wrong about that -- I think that's a good strategy. Johnson is definitely a candidate to be a breakout TE this year, and with QB, you can muddle through with Cousins until you see if Richardson is the real deal.'

Fun fact: In 2018 I absolutely killed my draft, including Mahomes in the 8th. But as a hedge, I drafted -- and started in Week 1 -- Marcus Mariota. Mahomes went absolutely nuts in Week 1, but fortunately I still won because I also had Tyreek. Obviously I felt OK dropping Mariota after that

I thought about gambling a bit and taking Waller instead of Kittle. I'd rather Waller had fell to me the next round but I didn't see that happening.

Interesting. Based on my mocks I've been targeting Waller in the 6th with some success, but it's definitely a gamble. (And if I take him in the 5th, good chance I lose out on all the mid-tier QBs by the 6th)

IDK if my draft link is working but Kittle went 5.2 to me and Waller went 5.12. I figured Waller wouldn't last to my next pick at 6.11 and he didn't. Picking at the top or bottom of the rounds requires some reaching for guys sometimes that you wouldn't always do drafting in the middle of rounds.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

My draft is not quite over yet but I went Kittle at 5.2 and backed him up at 13.2 with Juwan Johnson. Waited on QB and took Richardson at 9.2 in a bit of a gamble and backed him up next round at 10.11 with Cousins. Top QBs went early in this 6pt passing TD league.

Sleeper

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sleeper.app

Other than the fact that I'm down on Kittle -- and I certainly could be wrong about that -- I think that's a good strategy. Johnson is definitely a candidate to be a breakout TE this year, and with QB, you can muddle through with Cousins until you see if Richardson is the real deal.'

Fun fact: In 2018 I absolutely killed my draft, including Mahomes in the 8th. But as a hedge, I drafted -- and started in Week 1 -- Marcus Mariota. Mahomes went absolutely nuts in Week 1, but fortunately I still won because I also had Tyreek. Obviously I felt OK dropping Mariota after that

I thought about gambling a bit and taking Waller instead of Kittle. I'd rather Waller had fell to me the next round but I didn't see that happening.

Interesting. Based on my mocks I've been targeting Waller in the 6th with some success, but it's definitely a gamble. (And if I take him in the 5th, good chance I lose out on all the mid-tier QBs by the 6th)

IDK if my draft link is working but Kittle went 5.2 to me and Waller went 5.12. I figured Waller wouldn't last to my next pick at 6.11 and he didn't. Picking at the top or bottom of the rounds requires some reaching for guys sometimes that you wouldn't always do drafting in the middle of rounds.

Right, I'll be picking at 5.5 and 6.8, so I have a slightly better chance. But as with any draft, it only takes one team to screw your plans up

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I specifically went for 2nd/3rd tier QB this year. Last year I did the freefall and didn’t love the results in any league. I only made the LCG in one by luck of someone dropping Fields after week 2 & adding him via FA.

As for TE, my redraft strategy was
1. Grab Andrews if he fell past ADP (he didn’t anywhere)
2. Take Pitts if he fell past ADP (he did in one league)
3. Wait for ‘’muth
4. If I missed ‘Mouth, go for a pair of high upside potential 1s, like Chig, Irv Smith, JuJohn, Conklin

Landed Pitts/JuJohn (1), ‘Muth/Chig (2), Chig/JuJohn (2)

I think I like the teams with the low budget dart throws the best, though the ‘Mouth builds aren’t bad. And if Pitts hits, he has the highest ceiling of my targets.

The last couple years have been lean at TE, but I feel like this is the deepest it’s been in a long while. Waiting & playing the matchups might well be the best approach this year. Not coincidentally, those are my deepest teams at WR/RB.

 

[wolfeman]

Great thread. I'm been thinking this a lot. I will spend an early pick on Mahomes, Allen, or Hurts. I punted on QB last year and it was a mess. I am sick of guys like Mahomes/Allen/Hurts putting up 40+ on me while I pray to get 20 from my middling QB. Tons of value at RB and WR this year, as others have said. Come heck or high water, I'm drafting Waller this year at TE. If I miss on him, I'll try to get Pitts (3rd time's a charm?)

That’s where I’m at. Not 1st round, but my 2nd. Is that crazy?

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Had my first draft tonight. Got snaked on Waller, so I went with a Dalton combo (Kincaid in the 10th, Schultz in the 13th). As for QB, took Burrow in the 5th, although I'm a little worried about the injury. Probably should have waited a round and taken Lawrence

 

[skol asylum]

Had my first draft tonight. Got snaked on Waller, so I went with a Dalton combo (Kincaid in the 10th, Schultz in the 13th). As for QB, took Burrow in the 5th, although I'm a little worried about the injury. Probably should have waited a round and taken Lawrence

I'd love Burrow there. My league which is different because of the 6pt pass TDs he went QB6 at 2.7. If he was there for me at 2.11 I would seriously have to think about it. Well 3.2 because Mahomes went to the guy at 1.1 so I could get my RB first and then QB.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Had my first draft tonight. Got snaked on Waller, so I went with a Dalton combo (Kincaid in the 10th, Schultz in the 13th). As for QB, took Burrow in the 5th, although I'm a little worried about the injury. Probably should have waited a round and taken Lawrence

I'd love Burrow there. My league which is different because of the 6pt pass TDs he went QB6 at 2.7. If he was there for me at 2.11 I would seriously have to think about it. Well 3.2 because Mahomes went to the guy at 1.1 so I could get my RB first and then QB.

Interesting. My long-time family league is 6pt passing TD and 0.25 PPC, so QB scoring is through the roof; a good game for a QB is 30 points. But I don't generally adjust my strategy to take QBs early. The only change I make is to deprioritize the running QBs a little. For example, last year Fields was QB8 in a league with standard QB scoring, but QB13 in my family league. So in that league I would definitely move Burrow, Herbert and Lawrence up and LJax and Fields down. But I don't take them earlier because it's just as easy to find a streamer who can put up those high scores as well. IMO the only reason to take QBs earlier is if you have rules that increase demand for the position (ie superflex)

 

[wolfeman]

Our TDs are 6 too

 

[skillz]

My goal in a start 1 QB, 12 team league was to get one of the top 7 QBs in the 4th and Waller in the 5th.

Was able to snag Lamar in the 4th. Got sniped on Waller in the 5th. He was fourth TE off the board. Kittle also went. Had a chance of taking Pitts or Goedert but I passed on them.

Ended up waiting and waiting. Took Kincaid in the 11th and then Juwan Johnson in the 14th. I will just roll with Juwan with his easy initial schedule and then see how things play out with Kincaid and how he’s being used. So I took an upside TE and one that should be pretty solid and was able to find the endzone with lesser QBs last season.

 

[efactor]

If Hock is still sitting there after 40-45 names come off the board, he's an easy grab in my book.
Weeks 8-16 he racked over 85 targets, 59 catches, only 3 TDs and you'd like to see more.

140 targets, 95 cacthes, 1,000+ yds and 7TDs, he's a primary target after JJ, the rookie sensation will only open up more lanes for Hock.
Career year this season across the board.

Agree. I have him in that same 90-100 catch range assuming he plays all 17 games. Vikings will be throwing even more than usual this year without Cook and a pretty bad defense.

Grabbed him at 4.12 in a 14 teamer on Sunday

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

My goal in a start 1 QB, 12 team league was to get one of the top 7 QBs in the 4th and Waller in the 5th.

Was able to snag Lamar in the 4th. Got sniped on Waller in the 5th. He was fourth TE off the board. Kittle also went. Had a chance of taking Pitts or Goedert but I passed on them.

Ended up waiting and waiting. Took Kincaid in the 11th and then Juwan Johnson in the 14th. I will just roll with Juwan with his easy initial schedule and then see how things play out with Kincaid and how he’s being used. So I took an upside TE and one that should be pretty solid and was able to find the endzone with lesser QBs last season.

Sounds like we took a similar approach. Probably would have taken Lamar if he had been there in the 4th, but ended up with Burrow in the 5th, then got sniped on Waller and decided to punt the position, ending up with Kincaid/Schultz

 

[kyoun1e]

Keep hoping I can get one of L. Jackson/Fields/Burrow/Herbert in the 4th or 5th. That's worked so far in mocks.

However, if I wait until the 5th for one of those QBs all of Waller, Hock, and Goedert get sniped. Want no part of Kittle or Pitts.

The next tier of one is Friermuth, and at an ADP of 92 it seems like there is a panic always to grab him early. Friermuth seems to be the last stand before you officially punt the position.

Of course, if just avoided getting cute and got my QB in the 4th (Lamar or Fields), I'd get my TE in round 5. The sacrifice in mocks is NOT getting D. Pierce in the fourth as a #2 RB.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Keep hoping I can get one of L. Jackson/Fields/Burrow/Herbert in the 4th or 5th. That's worked so far in mocks.

However, if I wait until the 5th for one of those QBs all of Waller, Hock, and Goedert get sniped. Want no part of Kittle or Pitts.

The next tier of one is Friermuth, and at an ADP of 92 it seems like there is a panic always to grab him early. Friermuth seems to be the last stand before you officially punt the position.

Of course, if just avoided getting cute and got my QB in the 4th (Lamar or Fields), I'd get my TE in round 5. The sacrifice in mocks is NOT getting D. Pierce in the fourth as a #2 RB.

I'm of a similar mindset, but I'm thinking about taking Waller in the 5th and hope at least one of those QBs falls to the 6th. The other advantage to that strategy is that I'm mostly OK with Tua or Geno as a fallback option (although in that case I would feel compelled to draft a second QB)

 

[dickey moe]

Went early with QB and TE this year. Took Mahomes at 3.01 and Hockenson at 5.01.