Seems like Herbert never makes it into round 6. What usually seems to happen: Get Waller in the 5th, miss on Herbert, and hope Lawrence is still there...and too often he's not because he's the last QB in that tier before you then have to cross a 3 round chasm to the likes of Geno, Jones, Tua, Richardson.
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QB/TE draft strategy 2023 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ignatiusjreilly
- Start date
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Agreed that you can't get QB and TE early. I drafted Lamar in round 3 and missed out on my TE targets in rounds 4/5/6 and ended up with La Porta the Lions rookie TE in the 14th. Not happy with my TE situation at all. Hopefully Lamar beasts and makes it worth while
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I'm starting to prep for my main money league: 14-team, standard scoring, 3WRs. I'm realizing that the extra two teams make it pretty much impossible to pull off my strategy of "Get Waller + mid-tier QB in Rounds 5-6". At best I can get one of them, but not both unless I'm willing to move everything up a round and do it 4/5 (but that's exactly when I need to be stockpiling WRs). So good chance I'll have to punt at least one of the positions.
But in a deeper league, that carries its own risk. Last year in that league I drafted Brady and would have been more than happy to drop him and stream the position, but there was never anyone even remotely decent on the WW so I ended up sticking with him all season.
As of now, the strategy I'm toying with is try to get Waller in the 5th, then for QB try to get Tua/Geno plus a lotto ticket like Love, Purdy or Howell. (I'd say Richardson here, but this league has depressed passing stats -- 35yds=1 pt -- which makes running QBs even more valuable. I'm guessing Richardson goes way earlier
But in a deeper league, that carries its own risk. Last year in that league I drafted Brady and would have been more than happy to drop him and stream the position, but there was never anyone even remotely decent on the WW so I ended up sticking with him all season.
As of now, the strategy I'm toying with is try to get Waller in the 5th, then for QB try to get Tua/Geno plus a lotto ticket like Love, Purdy or Howell. (I'd say Richardson here, but this league has depressed passing stats -- 35yds=1 pt -- which makes running QBs even more valuable. I'm guessing Richardson goes way earlier
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I am not a Waller guy anymore but if you are, I like this strategy.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Curious to dig into that remark a little. What put you off of him? Who have you pivoted to? Because I gotta say, the thought of going into the draft with basically one TE I'm targeting -- and it's a guy coming off two straight down years -- is starting to make me a little nervous
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think it's what you said, the couple down years. He's been hurt too. Just seems to me like a player on the decline. He was always an outlier even achieving what he did. I like Hock and love Goedert this year.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Yeah, I'm thinking of expanding my target list a little. I guess I'd be OK with Hock or Pitts, but that doesn't really solve the problem, since they usually go before Waller. There's not really a tier in between those guys and the late-round dart throws. I guess maybe Engram?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yep, Engram is my guy if a miss on Hock-Goedert.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve managed to get Lamar in rounds 4, 4, and 5 in 12-team redraft. Fields in the 6th, and TLaw in the 5th.
So far.
3rd seems slightly early, but I get it.
I had my draft last night (12 team half PPR) and that's exactly how it panned out for me. I was picking 4th, and was planning on taking one of the "big three" QBs (Mahomes, Allen, Hurts) if they were on the board and crazy value at WR or RB didn't drop. I wasn't sure how TE would play out though. I wasn't thinking Andrews would be there for my 4.09 pick. But if I wanted Hock or Waller I'd have to reach either there or the 5.04.
As it played out, I got Hurts at 3.04 (after starting Chase 1.04 and AJ Brown 2.09). Mahomes and Allen were taken before Hurts. And Andrews did fall to me at 4.09 and I couldn't resist (hoping to not repeat last year's disaster of taking Pitts in the 4th). As mentioned, this year seems to have lots of value at RB and WR in the middle rounds. Since I started WR/WR I was then looking for RBs and got Sanders, Akers, and Dobbins in the next 3 rounds.
In this draft 7 QBs were taken by the end of round 4, and 7 TEs by the end of the round 6.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Got my pick number in my upcoming snake draft. It’s 4.
I’ve been mocking and I’ve been equally happy with the teams I get going either Ekeler or Kelce first. Im leaning Kelce because of the massive value gap between him and the rest.
Most likely waiting at QB because this league loves drafting QBs ahead of ADP.
I’ve been mocking and I’ve been equally happy with the teams I get going either Ekeler or Kelce first. Im leaning Kelce because of the massive value gap between him and the rest.
Most likely waiting at QB because this league loves drafting QBs ahead of ADP.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Found out tonight I'm picking 2nd in this league. Just did a mock draft with those parameters and Waller went at the end of the third round! Probably just a fluke, but if his ADP gets pushed up that high I'm definitely out on him.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
He went in the 6th in mine which is a fairly competitive home league.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
This was REALLY just a personal choice. Because I’ve spent the last 3-4 seasons feeling like I’m really smart waiting on QB and TE and loading up at other positions. But then just banging my head against the wall all season playing the wire and never truly finding my guy, or watching the tandem of QBs I own blow up on the bench while my other QB shat the bed.
Took Hock in the 4th and Herbert in the 5th.
My RB room is sparse but I’m ready to hopefully set it and forget it for the season (barring injury) at these two positions I’ve been playing roulette with for years (and missing the playoffs)
Herbert was maybe a little early but I like how my roster turned out.
Took Hock in the 4th and Herbert in the 5th.
My RB room is sparse but I’m ready to hopefully set it and forget it for the season (barring injury) at these two positions I’ve been playing roulette with for years (and missing the playoffs)
Herbert was maybe a little early but I like how my roster turned out.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Problem with picking in the 2-slot is I'm going to have to make a call at the 4/5 turn. Could potentially go QB/TE there, but it's way earlier than I'd like. (Would have much preferred to be picking near the opposite turn, so I could employ same strategy at 5/6).
Current thinking is that I'll take one of the two at the 4/5 turn (probably TE if Hock or Waller are still on the board) and then hope something decent comes back to me at the 6/7; if not TLaw then at least Tua or Geno
That is outstanding. Herbert has not lasted to the 5th in any draft I have been in.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Mahomes and Hurts in the second.
Jackson and Allen in the third.
Burrow in the fourth.
Herbert and Fields in the 5th.
Granted this is a 6 pt passing TD league.
Yeah one team I had last year I drafted Pitts and waited on QB with Lance and another solid QB. I had to constantly pluck another TE off waivers and did the same with QB.
I was lucky enough to pick up Geno and Fields, but TE was a nightmare.
I'm solving both issues by round 5.
Once L. Jackson is selected in the beginning of the 2nd tier, they all go fast. I've tried to get cute waiting until round 6 and I get screwed every time.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
On the one hand, everyone struggled at TE last year, so it wasn't a huge loss.
But yeah, I started off last year losing two of my first three, both by 1.1 points, in games where I got zero from the TE position. So I get it
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Ha. I remember this well. I think I had a 4 week span where I changed and grabbed new TEs each week and kept getting zeros.
markrc99
Footballguy
Generally, in a standard lineup I feel that drafting 3s & 4s at WR or RB before a QB1 doesn't make a lot of sense. Mainly because by round 6 you're prioritizing your bench over starters @QB & TE. Now, someone could counter by pointing out that Geno Smith (QB5 in nfl.com leagues a year ago) is severely undervalued. Then, in the back paired him with Jordan Love! "Wasn't me", but the guy that did that is probably very hard to beat. In .5ppr at nfl.com the TE7 last year was Cole Kmet. I'm sorry but wherever he came off your board, he should've been your starter before a league-mate's backup! I'd check your wire for him, Hunter Henry, then Luke Musgrave.
I also drafted Lamar Jackson in the 3rd rd, which would be deemed early. I did it because this happened to be a keeper league where Mahomes/Allen/Hurts were listed, off the board. Also, I traded to the back of the 4th to list Hockenson as a keeper which yielded me an early 5th. Plus, in another league which had previously drafted pick 40 was Dak, the 8th QB selected. So, spooked I reached for Jackson & added Geno in the back of the 8th. The QB on everyone's wire I really like is Mac jones. I hope to have been less critique and more help. Good luck brother!
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Final draft tonight: Picking #2 in a 14-team non-PPR, 4pt passing TDs, 1pt = 35 passing yards (so running QBs tend to be more valuable; Fields was QB5 last year).
My goal is to get my QB/TE at the 4/5 turn. Ideally Waller or Hock and a mid-tier QB (Fields/Burrow/Herbert/TLaw). I'd definitely consider one of the Big Three if they fall to the early 3rd, and possibly LJax, but with 14 teams I don't love what that does to my RBs/WRs.
However, there's a good chance I lose out on one or both of those targets, so I need to have a backup plan going in. For QB, I'll probably target Richardson plus a safer option like Geno, Goff or DJones (don't like him in regular leagues, but he was QB8 in this league last year).
For TE, it's tougher. I've been trying to get Waller in all of my drafts so far and keep missing him. There's no one late-round TE I particularly like, although I'm rising on Turd Ferguson. Also, I've gotten rookie TEs (Kincaid and LaPorta) in previous drafts, so maybe Musgrave here? But I feel like anyone after Waller/Hock is going to be a dart throw. Also, I don't mind having 2 QBs or 2 TEs, but I'd really prefer not to have both.
My goal is to get my QB/TE at the 4/5 turn. Ideally Waller or Hock and a mid-tier QB (Fields/Burrow/Herbert/TLaw). I'd definitely consider one of the Big Three if they fall to the early 3rd, and possibly LJax, but with 14 teams I don't love what that does to my RBs/WRs.
However, there's a good chance I lose out on one or both of those targets, so I need to have a backup plan going in. For QB, I'll probably target Richardson plus a safer option like Geno, Goff or DJones (don't like him in regular leagues, but he was QB8 in this league last year).
For TE, it's tougher. I've been trying to get Waller in all of my drafts so far and keep missing him. There's no one late-round TE I particularly like, although I'm rising on Turd Ferguson. Also, I've gotten rookie TEs (Kincaid and LaPorta) in previous drafts, so maybe Musgrave here? But I feel like anyone after Waller/Hock is going to be a dart throw. Also, I don't mind having 2 QBs or 2 TEs, but I'd really prefer not to have both.
markrc99
Footballguy
Have never played with that scoring setting, nor in a 14-teamer, so consider this grain of salt stuff. You want the value at QB/TE to fall to you but to me you're passing on it at QB at the 2/3 turn. Then, if what you're looking for at either position for isn't there at the 4/5 turn, you leave out what's happening at the back of the 6th. Important because you're then weighing drafting bench players over 1's at QB/TE. I win, I lose just as frequently.. but I question whether that's winning strategy. In the back you mention Kincaid, love this player, but there's no mention of Cole Kmet or Jordan Love... I don't get it.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
What value do you think I'd be leaving at the 2/3 if the Big Three are already gone? Maybe with this league's scoring, LJax makes it a Big Four.
I do like Love super late. Could definitely see pairing him with a safer option. Not as crazy about Kmet, although I suppose he does have a path to being No. 2 on his team in targets (which Andrew Cooper has demonstrated is absolutely necessary for a TE to be an upper-half TE1)
markrc99
Footballguy
Such is your circumstance, oh, Jackson & Fields, they're not those guys. Right, so you circle back & if Geno is there in like the 8th round, go get him. I'm not convinced you like Jordan Love, but with your setting & the lesser certainty of Jackson/Fields, I'd reach for him! At TE, a combination of Freiermuth/Kmet/Kincaid, meaning two of three. It's just me, but if you're one of the last team owners to add TE, you need to be the 1st guy to double down at the position. Ball-carriers I like in the back are Jerome Ford, Ty Chandler, Tank Bigsby, Allgeier. Anyway, good luck with your draft! Let us know.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Ended up going WR-WR-WR (Jefferson, Waddle, Olave)
Got Justin Herbert 5.1 and unfortunately all the was left was Pat Friermuth at 8.12 as the 10th or 11th TE taken.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
You're "not convinced I like Jordan Love"? I wasn't aware that I had to prove my loyalty to your satisfaction. What if I told you I have his face tattooed on my chest?
In any event, just finished the draft. Could have had Allen in the 2nd, but Higgins was the only WR left I would have been happy with as my WR1 so I didn't want to lose him, and of course, got snaked by the guy drafting after me. So instead, I took Andrews at the 3.2, which I felt particularly happy about when Waller went early in the 4th, before I would have had a chance at him.
Took my QB at the 4/5 turn and had my choice between Herbert and Lawrence. Close call for me, since I'm really convinced Lawrence makes the leap this year, but I felt like Herbert was a more proven commodity with a new OC and some major TD regression coming. But if it doesn't work out you'll see me posting in the "Draft Day Regerts" thread
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Who was you running back in the 4th?
I did basically this exact same thing…
Chase-Olave-Ridley, but I hated the RBs in the 4th, so then went Hockenson-Herbert.
Just curious who you liked there, as I’m not in love with my RBs for obvious reasons, but strong everywhere else and have a lot of bench RBs that if they hit could be cooking.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I only need to start 1RB, 1 WR 1 TE but 3 flex.
I ended up taking Pierce and panicked as James Cook (Buffalo league) went 4.11 and I’ve been picking him at 5.1 all summer in mocks.
RBs’
Pierce 4.12
Kamara 6.12
Swift 9.1
Elijah Mitchell 12.12
Jeff Wilson on IR
Not thrilled. What did you end up with?
Got sniped on Jamaal William’s later in draft
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Either myself or MoP Jr took him in the Late 4th in almost every PPR format where TE was mandatory
We both think Andrews falls some this year and Kelce unfortunately is starting off hurt.
Hock has a chance to be the #1TE in FF for at least the start of the '23 season.
Very bullish on him
I'm sure there are other good options but Waller and Kittle seem to be hurt often, Goedert, Engram, Pitts, Njoku, up n down and a lot of down. Engram is going to lose some targets just as easily as Kirk is predicted with the arrival of Ridley.
I like Juwan Johnson as a late TE2, Carr has been very glowing about him in camp and I like him even if you draft Hock, get a back up late.
I like the Tight Ends after the first 10-12+ are off the boards, not sure exactly which ones but it feels like there will be a surprise or two, maybe a rookie like Kincaid, maybe a surprise like Irv Smith in Cinci, but there really is only a couple you should burn an early pick on. TJ Hockenson is one of them this year.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
My RB room is to die for. But it will play if a lotto ticket hits. We have to start 2 and can flex one.
K Herbert
Swift
Mostert
Gainwell
J Warren
E Mitchell
Ty Chandler
markrc99
Footballguy
lol .. A lot of 1s, you done good! Probably could've worded my position better than I did. I was arguing from my experience, I've drafted QB late & I've drafted QB early, but not backed him up. I don't consider it a change in philosophy but rather an adjustment to the reality I'm confronted with when it doesn't work. Case in point, Justin Herbert last year. I traded to the back of the 4th rd & listed him there & was done at the position. But you & everyone else knows what happened.
I just checked one of my 12-teamer leagues, 20 QBs are currently rostered! The best of what's available are guys like Ryan Tannehill, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett & Sam Howell. Which is EXACTLY the circumstance I was in with Herbert, he was costing me & there was no real alternative on the wire. I'm done going 5 or 6 deep @RB or WR when I can reasonably fortify the QB position. Same is true of backing up TE, but as a lesser priority.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
In last night's 12-team PPR redraft, with 6-point passing TDs, I was not planning on getting one of the Big Three QBs, figuring I would get someone from the next tier in rounds 4 or 5, but Allen was still sitting there at 3.8, and I thought that was better value than anyone remaining at the other positions, so I grabbed him.
Partly because of that and partly because of when they went, I ended up punting TE, grabbing LaPorta (for ceiling) in the 10th and Schultz (for floor) in the 13th. Somewhat luckily, the team that took Kelce at 1.11 also took Goedert in the 7th round, so the projected top 6 TEs are concentrated on 5 teams instead of 6, meaning there are 6 teams instead of 5 that I am more or less on equal footing with TE-wise (with a chance to be better than if LaPorta hits his ceiling).
Partly because of that and partly because of when they went, I ended up punting TE, grabbing LaPorta (for ceiling) in the 10th and Schultz (for floor) in the 13th. Somewhat luckily, the team that took Kelce at 1.11 also took Goedert in the 7th round, so the projected top 6 TEs are concentrated on 5 teams instead of 6, meaning there are 6 teams instead of 5 that I am more or less on equal footing with TE-wise (with a chance to be better than if LaPorta hits his ceiling).
