In short bench leagues where bottom rung starting QB's are on the waiver wire, I could see Flacco being out there and being worthless. The only QB's on the waiver wire in my leagues are true backups with little upside. But even then, at best I think a 4th from a QB needy team would be the most you could get. Dalton was dealt during our rookie draft in May for a late 4th rounder for example.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
Is there a good case for Barkley, Kamara, and Mixon over DJ and Bell in dynasty? Likely depends on how much you value security and track record vs. youth and longevity. There's an argument that the ppg is going be similar for these guys moving forward, which would obviously favor the younger backs. Bell and DJ are entering that age range where they're no longer going to give you maximum roster flexibility and trade value since some owners are not going to play ball for a 26-27 y/o RB. With the strong opening week for the younger guys, the window may have already closed.
Looking around the NFL and trying to rank the RBs by current overall talent level, this would probably be my A tier in no particular order:
Mixon
Bell
Zeke
Barkley
Kamara
Gurley
DJ
Fringe: Fournette, CMC, Hunt, Gordon
Next tier down on raw talent level would probably include Fournette, D Freeman, CMC, Hunt, Gordon, Howard, Chubb, Drake, Hyde, McCoy (aging), Cook, Ingram, and Guice with Penny, R Freeman, Kerryon, McKinnon, L Miller, Ajayi, and Henry as fringe options. I would define that tier as "starter worthy, but not elite." After that the list becomes a mixture of pure committee backs, opportunity JAGs, and career backups.
Looking around the NFL and trying to rank the RBs by current overall talent level, this would probably be my A tier in no particular order:
Mixon
Bell
Zeke
Barkley
Kamara
Gurley
DJ
Fringe: Fournette, CMC, Hunt, Gordon
Next tier down on raw talent level would probably include Fournette, D Freeman, CMC, Hunt, Gordon, Howard, Chubb, Drake, Hyde, McCoy (aging), Cook, Ingram, and Guice with Penny, R Freeman, Kerryon, McKinnon, L Miller, Ajayi, and Henry as fringe options. I would define that tier as "starter worthy, but not elite." After that the list becomes a mixture of pure committee backs, opportunity JAGs, and career backups.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He's a stud. I wouldn't trade Barkley or Kamara for him, but it might be time to put him in the Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown tier.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah I know I'm in the minority. By mid season most will value him as the #1 asset in dynasty imo though. He's pretty much there for me now because I feel this is just the beginning.......
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EBF
Footballguy
Much as I like Tyreek, there is no way I pass up an elite foundational three down RB like Barkley, Elliott, or Kamara for him. Historically, those are the players who really single-handedly win you a FF league. I don't think any WR has a *clear* case for going ahead of Hill besides Beckham though. A lot of people might have Michael Thomas up there as well and, while he has definitely proven to be a good player, I don't think he's a freakish talent, just Colston 2.0. Hill is special and the stuff he does on the field has a sensational quality ala Randy Moss, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson.
My "untouchable" dynasty startup tier probably looks something like:
RB: Barkley, Elliott, Gurley, Mixon, Kamara
WR: Beckham, Hill, Hopkins
Not really entertaining any offers for anyone on this list unless I'm getting someone else on the list back. Maybe I deal Hopkins if I get the right package.
And then you have an older generation of elite players like DJ, Bell, AB, and Julio who can give you a huge win now edge if that fits your team's plan. They're what Dez, Shady, AJ Green, and Demaryius were a couple years ago: elite veterans whose trade value is about to hit a hard backslope.
The fringe guys for me are people like Fournette, JuJu, McCaffrey, M Thomas, and maybe Hunt. Young and seemingly very good, but maybe not quite elite. I'm a lot more comfortable with them as a 2nd round startup pick than as the cornerstone player on my dynasty team.
My "untouchable" dynasty startup tier probably looks something like:
RB: Barkley, Elliott, Gurley, Mixon, Kamara
WR: Beckham, Hill, Hopkins
Not really entertaining any offers for anyone on this list unless I'm getting someone else on the list back. Maybe I deal Hopkins if I get the right package.
And then you have an older generation of elite players like DJ, Bell, AB, and Julio who can give you a huge win now edge if that fits your team's plan. They're what Dez, Shady, AJ Green, and Demaryius were a couple years ago: elite veterans whose trade value is about to hit a hard backslope.
The fringe guys for me are people like Fournette, JuJu, McCaffrey, M Thomas, and maybe Hunt. Young and seemingly very good, but maybe not quite elite. I'm a lot more comfortable with them as a 2nd round startup pick than as the cornerstone player on my dynasty team.
EBF
Footballguy
Big jump on some lists, but I've been a Mixon dynasty bull from the start. He has a complete skill set: size, power, agility, speed, and hands in the passing game. I think there's little difference between him and the guys like Elliott and Bell, it's just that he hasn't logged the monster season yet. In terms of what they can do on the field, he's in the same class.
Barkley would've been my #1 startup pick this summer if I had joined any new leagues. I know there are cautionary tales like Reggie Bush and Trent Richardson of guys who never delivered on their all-world hype, but he's too young and too good to pass up. He's Lynch except bigger and more explosive.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Oh I know. He's exactly the kind of guy you always love and I'm pretty sure we've discussed him back and forth at length a few times
I've always been lower on him than the consensus, but I understand the appeal. Athletically he's like no one else. He looked a lot more decisive out there in week 1, which is a big step in the right direction. I am coming around on him.
Regarding Barkley, I would take Gurley over the field pretty easily personally, but I did trade up in my lone startup this offseason to take Barkley 4th overall. Like Mixon though, he certainly has some red flags that are being overlooked coming out.
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Can we talk about Odell for a minute?
Historically great WR, in his prime, appears to have come back strong from his injury last year. He still seems like a no-brainer top 5 pick (and top 3 WR) given his age and production, but I'm feeling a bit more nervous about him than I have previously. Maybe it's just recency bias after watching that train wreck last night, but in pure fantasy terms (not talent or whatever), does he still deserve to be in a separate tier from guys like, for example, Michael Thomas and Tyreek? I'm assuming Hopkins is still right with Beckham, even though I'm not his biggest fan and wouldn't take him there.
His situation just doesn't seem optimal anymore - the obvious concern is Eli's deterioration and the functioning of the offense as a whole. Judging by last night, it's going to be an ugly year. Eli still peppers Beckham with targets, but they aren't necessarily high value targets and of course the presence of more weapons (notable Engram and Barkley) than in previous years probably will have a slightly detrimental effect on his production. Those guys aren't going away, even once the Eli problem is solved. As for the QB thing, even if they move on from Eli next year and draft a QB, who knows whether that player will hit the ground running. If they pursue a QB in free agency, who's really out there? Foles, Flacco or Bridgewater? Tyrod after he gets canned this year? Not that inspiring (although still upgrades over Eli probably). I had some faith in Davis Webb but the Giants clearly didn't. I doubt Lauletta is the answer.
It's true that Thomas has an uncertain future QB situation, although Brees isn't as close to the end as Eli is and could still keep playing. Hopkins has Watson, which is pretty positive. Tyreek has Mahomes, which is the best situation of all. Another guy to mention here, even though I know most would have him a further tier down is Evans - this time last year, was the consensus #2 asset in dynasty (an even ahead of Beckham in some places) and now he's been dropped down after a bad year. I didn't like him as a dynasty asset tied to Winston, but Fitz has shown what Evans can be with better QB play - their offensive coordinator also appears to have had a major influence. There's QB uncertainty there too but I'm wondering whether he also needs to be moved up the ranks slightly. Evans has the same issue as Beckham in terms of surrounding talent increasing and taking away from his target share, but as of right now he's in a far better offense (like all of the others I've mentioned) and that matters because at the end of the day you need high end production with upside out of these elite assets.
I suppose I'm asking how should we tier the WRs at the top? To me, there doesn't seem to be any meaningful separation right now between Beckham, Hopkins, Thomas and Hill (AB is out for me due solely to age but I know would still be in the top tier for many). I'd be tempted to put Evans at the bottom of that tier now as well although I know others might have Keenan or Adams ahead of him.
Historically great WR, in his prime, appears to have come back strong from his injury last year. He still seems like a no-brainer top 5 pick (and top 3 WR) given his age and production, but I'm feeling a bit more nervous about him than I have previously. Maybe it's just recency bias after watching that train wreck last night, but in pure fantasy terms (not talent or whatever), does he still deserve to be in a separate tier from guys like, for example, Michael Thomas and Tyreek? I'm assuming Hopkins is still right with Beckham, even though I'm not his biggest fan and wouldn't take him there.
His situation just doesn't seem optimal anymore - the obvious concern is Eli's deterioration and the functioning of the offense as a whole. Judging by last night, it's going to be an ugly year. Eli still peppers Beckham with targets, but they aren't necessarily high value targets and of course the presence of more weapons (notable Engram and Barkley) than in previous years probably will have a slightly detrimental effect on his production. Those guys aren't going away, even once the Eli problem is solved. As for the QB thing, even if they move on from Eli next year and draft a QB, who knows whether that player will hit the ground running. If they pursue a QB in free agency, who's really out there? Foles, Flacco or Bridgewater? Tyrod after he gets canned this year? Not that inspiring (although still upgrades over Eli probably). I had some faith in Davis Webb but the Giants clearly didn't. I doubt Lauletta is the answer.
It's true that Thomas has an uncertain future QB situation, although Brees isn't as close to the end as Eli is and could still keep playing. Hopkins has Watson, which is pretty positive. Tyreek has Mahomes, which is the best situation of all. Another guy to mention here, even though I know most would have him a further tier down is Evans - this time last year, was the consensus #2 asset in dynasty (an even ahead of Beckham in some places) and now he's been dropped down after a bad year. I didn't like him as a dynasty asset tied to Winston, but Fitz has shown what Evans can be with better QB play - their offensive coordinator also appears to have had a major influence. There's QB uncertainty there too but I'm wondering whether he also needs to be moved up the ranks slightly. Evans has the same issue as Beckham in terms of surrounding talent increasing and taking away from his target share, but as of right now he's in a far better offense (like all of the others I've mentioned) and that matters because at the end of the day you need high end production with upside out of these elite assets.
I suppose I'm asking how should we tier the WRs at the top? To me, there doesn't seem to be any meaningful separation right now between Beckham, Hopkins, Thomas and Hill (AB is out for me due solely to age but I know would still be in the top tier for many). I'd be tempted to put Evans at the bottom of that tier now as well although I know others might have Keenan or Adams ahead of him.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Elevencents
Footballguy
Where do you guys see Golladay moving forward? It looks like Tate will most likely be moving on after this year and I believe Jones is signed through 2020. Kid looks like the real deal and is a keeper on a team in my league. I’m looking to acquire but the only real piece I have is Henry. I have a good stable of RB’s for the coming years so I’m perfectly fine dealing Henry for Golladay but don’t think he would do it straight up. Will Henry be frustrating for years to come if Lewis sticks around? I never see him producing like I think he could if they just let him run wild.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I haven’t watched the games, but based on the snap counts and production, Golladay is worth a lot more to me than Henry. He’s beat out some stiff competition in Jones and is making the most of his targets. DET is a great situation for WRs. I didn’t have the foresight to target Golladay, but if I owned him I’d be holding.
Henry just isn’t who we hoped he was. I’d take a late 1st for him and call it a win.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
They can’t afford to tie up that much money in their WRs, especially with Golladay ready for a sizable role.
Elevencents
Footballguy
His contract is up after this year and he will hit the magic 3-0. Now that they have two talented young receivers will they throw the money he wants his way? All signs point to him moving on but I could be wrong.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Interesting take. They are currently almost $8M under the cap and that's with Tate's $9M cap number and Ansah playing on a huge FT. Is there another significant UFA they need to pay? I do not follow the team so if they have guys like linemen or next gen DB's I wouldn't recognize them. I suppose it depends on Tate's salary expectations since the WR market has gone a tad bonkers for non-premium WR's lately but I would think DET would want to keep every productive member of that team.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
You may be right, but I think he has a lot more potential value than this just by popping one decent game. Heck I have never been on the Henry train but I'd roll the dice at this price if for no other reason than to hold him to flip once he has a couple good games in a row. Henry buyers are the kind of guys that are looking for a narrative to fill - bellcow, goalline beast, size/speed freak, yadda yadda - and even I fall into this to a small degree. If Derrick Henry were named Rashard Penny then that would be me to a tee but I have just never bought into the hype about Henry. Maybe I should be tossing out lowball offers for him...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
They can afford him. It just doesn’t make any sense for them. They have holes to fill and a cheap WR ready to step up.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
That happens. He still did enough during the offseason to outsnap both Tate and Jones. That’s saying something. And again, the situation is great now and will be even better when Tate bolts. Stafford’s top guy always puts up numbers.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It’s a dangerous game, imo. A big game will help his value, but every bad game in the meantime will continue to bleed it. I don’t own him, but I wouldn’t be greedy if I did. He’s a timeshare back, getting the wrong slice of the pie in PPR formats. He’s not even startable.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I see him as a top20 dynasty WR. I had a few shares of him before the season and acquired him in 1 more after week 1 for T. Coleman. That's the guy you buy high on because of his youth, ascension into that offense, and other WR's likely to not be there. And even if they stay (or just 1 leaves or whatever), he's still the #1 target. If you're talking about Derrick Henry, I easily trade him away for Golladay. But Henry sucks IMO.
I tried to do the same with Godwin but he's roughly the same value when I think he should be lower. Evans will be the #1 in that offense for the next 10 years it seems, so that limits Godwin's ability just a little whereas Golladay IS the new #1. Love them both but I have tons of shares of Golladay, no shares of Godwin (unfortunately).
I'm just comparing all these young WR's who were #2's on their teams and have risen to the challenge. JuJu is another one and I have lots of shares of him as well. I had him as a top10 dynasty WR going into the season. But he's another one who is slightly limited by AB being on the other side. He's still amazing, just like Godwin, but you might as well buy now. Once the end of the season comes around they'll all be considered top20 dynasty WR's (JuJu already there partially due to draft capital and rookie season vs. Godwin who was 20 picks later and didn't do a whole lot rookie year).
I was just looking at snaps and noticed this changed in week 2. Marvin played 100% of the week 2 snaps. Golladay played 92%. You are correct for week 1 as the split was 89% and 92%. Maybe Marvin tweaked something in week 1. He led the league in snap % by a WR last season. (source - select 2017-2018 season and then click team snap %)
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thanks for keeping me honest. I must have quoted a dated source.FF Ninja said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Thomas and Hill are certainly making a case to move into that tier so far, but yes I definitely think there is some recency bias here. Last year early in the year people were having the same conversation about Diggs.RushHour said:
And yes, Thomas has the same long term concerns as Odell. I'm not sure why you think Eli is so much closer to the end than Brees when Brees is two years older. Obviously Brees looks a lot better right now but Eli's horrible line play is certainly excacerbating how bad he looks.
Giants are obviously not a great situation right now but Odell is 25 so he has plenty of time for that to work itself out. He's also the kind of guy that I don't think necessarily needs a great situation to produce. Targets are enough for him, similar to Hopkins.
Hah, not keeping you honest. I genuinely didn't know myself and your comment came to mind when I was looking at snaps so I figured I'd share. That website I linked is pretty handy now that SSND has moved his spreadsheet to private.
Spin
Footballguy
It's as it was to finish the last 5 games I believe last season and why I posted numerous times in this thread going back to March that Golladay should be looked at as a starter. He finished the last 5 games of the season outsnapping Tate each game, we are now up to 7 games in a row.Concept Coop said:
So only thing I'd add is that he did not need this offseason to outsnap Tate, he was already there.
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I think he's trying to monetize it. I don't blame him, but I only used it for snap % so I'll probably just use that website going forward.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Speaking of which, it's time to trade him, no? He's missed games 6 years in a row and typically struggles when banged up. I don't own him, but if I did I'd be looking to add to him for Evans or Hill, move him for Juju, or get a piece with him for Theilen or Landry.
And thoughts on Quincy Enunwa? He feels like easy money to me at his current price. If he stays healthy his value is going to double over the next 6-8 weeks--a 26 YO putting up WR2/3 numbers, catching passes from an exciting young QB prospect.
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NeverEnough
Footballguy
I'd like to move Diggs, but in that league I also own everyone on your list outside of Juju & Thielen
Maybe Brees has longer telomeres than Eli? Actually, I think they will both be done around the same time.
I did the math a while back and OBJ averaged around 1.67 points per target while Hopkins was around 1.5. They are in different tiers for me. I think OBJ is much more QB-proof than Hopkins and MT although I don't have any proof for MT.
Diggs is the ultimate gamble play. His numbers always end up mediocre because he plays hurt. If this guy ever stays healthy, you have lightning in a bottle. To me it boils down to the backup WR. If a team has a strong backup, I'd roll the dice. If the backup is awful then I'd look to sell.
Enunwa is just a volume play, right? Pryor looks pretty good this year and Anderson looked pretty good last year. I don't know how long Enunwa's targets are going to hold up. I feel like he's the 3rd best WR on the roster right now. I'd be selling if I had him, but maybe that would be a mistake.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
My core claim is that if the redraft community is right about his value moving forward, his dynasty value is going way up. That's not necessarily a talent claim. He appears to be Darnold's guy and the offense is currently tailored to pepper the slot. Even if it's smoke and mirrors, a 26YO putting up top 25 numbers is an easy sell, once the sample size hits 6 weeks or so.
As for his talent level, I'm a bit agnostic. For what it's worth--it's early, so not much--PPF has him graded as a top 10 WR so far. He put up 800+ yards in 2016, catching balls from the bad version of Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's 6'2", 225 and runs in the 4.45-4.5 range, a 96th percentile speed score. Good drop and contested catch rates. I think there's something there.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Pryor stinks as a WR. He's very athletic and runs well with the ball but has no instincts as a WR and can't run routes. He was the cause of Darnold's second interception because he stopped his route and didn't see the ball coming and made no attempt to break it up once he couldn't get it.
Enunwa is seeing heavy volume, but it's well deserved. Darnold loves him and talks up how fun it is to play with him. He's big, strong, dependable and has good speed for his size. I think he maintains value/volume all season at least and who knows if they improve the position next year.
You guys are starting to sell me on him, but I don't know that Pryor stinks as a WR and I still feel like Anderson could take over at any point.
Pryor's role is obviously increasing as his snaps and targets jumped way up in week 2. He played 40% of the snaps week 1 with 3 targets and jumped up to 68% with 8 targets in week 2.
rockaction
Footballguy
When Jermaine Kearse comes back, Terrelle Pryor might find himself the fourth receiver in the pecking order on the Jets, and they're not a team that's going to be throwing enough to roster Pryor, at least as far as I can tell. I'd do what I do with any situation, and monitor it. It's easy to fall in love with Pryor's athleticism. I've done it in the past. But when your otherwise placid coach says you ought to "shut your mouth" about your injury, you run the wrong routes, and you've got competition, it's a tough sell.
Oh don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to sell anyone on Pryor! He's just one of the reasons I find it difficult to be bullish on Enunwa.
rockaction
Footballguy
Gotcha. I missed that in context. Yeah, I think Enunwa is actually a high volume guy for this year, but in dynasty his injury history makes him a risk. But he's somewhat young (26), rather gifted at getting open, and appears to have game plans and the QB's attention. And if for some reason they give him a tight end position designation (he's sort of a hybrid now, and I've heard referred to as both TE and WR by the press), that makes him even more attractive given the position's status right now.
I'm no expert, just sort of a Jets homer checking in.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Kearse is out - I hope Pryor is used more as a situational guy once Kearse gets back. He'd be a good guy on third and longs were he can use his running ability after the catch but I think Kearse's route running and dependability is better for Darnold's development.
Seems like he's pretty-well entrenched as the TE2-3 behind Gronk.
The scoring system and starting requirements make this question impossible for us to answer without more information, but you should be able to find the relative startup equivalent of Ertz at Mizelle's website.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, Kearse is out. That matters. But it's an ab strain, and that shouldn't be too, too long, one would think. (Though those can linger, too. Better than being a baseball player with a hurt oblique.)
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