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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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Just now, jtd13 said:

I think he's already the favorite for WR1 in the offseason. 1.01 overall? I have trouble seeing that. There are just so many startable WRs that I think most will prioritize elite RBs. 

I agree on the plethora of WRs but I'm not sure there is going to be a clear cut RB to take at the top.  The current elite crop are hitting the age where dynasty owners start to lose interest that early, and the really young guys haven't played well enough to go that early.

I could definitely see DK going over Zeke who will be 26 by then, Saquon, Dalvin, CEH, and JT.  That leaves CMC as the real major competition for 1.01 but he'll be 25 and if they reduce his touches the back half of this year with Mike Davis looking like a guy plenty capable of getting 30% of the touches instead of 5% then that could really put the kabosh on the huge scoring advantage he was offering the last couple years.

Not saying it will for sure happen, but there is a pretty reasonable path to it.  In established leagues I don't think people would trade those RBs straight up for him but things are different in startup drafts where people are working from a blank slate and think they'll have plenty of time to take care of RB needs throughout the draft.

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3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think there's a pretty decent chance that Metcalf is the 1.01 startup pick next offseason.

Maybe I’m just a bit slow to catch on but this seems crazy to me. Even WR1 does.

To me, he’s in a fairly big group of young, high upside WRs who are already producing. That’s great, but I don’t see what he’s done to get all this WR1 hype this last couple of weeks. He’s been very good but so have plenty of other guys. He’s also only caught more than 4 passes in one game this year. That’s a bit shaky to me. 
 

I do understand ranking him over a couple of those slightly older guys now because age is such a huge factor for market value but it’s getting crazy IMO. Dynasty is surprisingly reactionary sometimes. 

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17 minutes ago, RushHour said:

Maybe I’m just a bit slow to catch on but this seems crazy to me. Even WR1 does.

To me, he’s in a fairly big group of young, high upside WRs who are already producing. That’s great, but I don’t see what he’s done to get all this WR1 hype this last couple of weeks. He’s been very good but so have plenty of other guys. He’s also only caught more than 4 passes in one game this year. That’s a bit shaky to me. 
 

I do understand ranking him over a couple of those slightly older guys now because age is such a huge factor for market value but it’s getting crazy IMO. Dynasty is surprisingly reactionary sometimes. 

He's WR3 in PPG at age 22 and is tied to one of the league's best quarterbacks for likely the majority of his career. 

And of course he has that salivating size/speed combo that everyone always craves.  Usually those guys end up being complete trash that never do anything (DGB, St Brown, etc) or Hall of fame studs that are top 3 startup picks for half a dozen years (Moss, Megatron).  DK certainly doesn't look like he falls into the former category.

Unless he has a huge regression the rest of this season there will likely be no reasonable price you can pay to acquire him next offseason.

As to the last comment about people being reactionary, I have talked about that a lot, I think as recently as just a few pages back.  Simply put, I find most dynasty owners to be UNDERreactionary.  At this time last year people were still asking for a 1st on top of OBJ to get Tyreek Hill, and people wanted 2-3 1sts on top of Aaron Jones to get JuJu even though the writing was on the wall.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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36 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

He's WR3 in PPG at age 22 and is tied to one of the league's best quarterbacks for likely the majority of his career. 

And of course he has that salivating size/speed combo that everyone always craves.  Usually those guys end up being complete trash that never do anything (DGB, St Brown, etc) or Hall of fame studs that are top 3 startup picks for half a dozen years (Moss, Megatron).  DK certainly doesn't look like he falls into the former category.

Unless he has a huge regression the rest of this season there will likely be no reasonable price you can pay to acquire him next offseason.

As to the last comment about people being reactionary, I have talked about that a lot, I think as recently as just a few pages back.  Simply put, I find most dynasty owners to be UNDERreactionary.  At this time last year people were still asking for a 1st on top of OBJ to get Tyreek Hill, and people wanted 2-3 1sts on top of Aaron Jones to get JuJu even though the writing was on the wall.

Completely agree with your comment (and elsewhere) about dynasty owners being under-reactionary. Not critical of that in itself because I’ve always been willing to “overpay” or buy high on a player to the point where it looks like I’m easily losing a trade at the time. I understand the DK argument I guess, but I’m just not fully bought in. I’m not convinced at all that he’s on the Moss/Megatron track. Happy to miss out on him (maybe it’s take lock too because I didn’t like him much coming out) as there are plenty of young WRs with similar upside imo.

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9 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Well Aaron Jones has outperformed him for the last two seasons and (I think) is younger - but agree Zeke's trade value is not the same. I've had trouble trying to find anyone that wants to give fair value.

Jones is actually older, but he has outperformed him. Jones's contract status is also up in the air and who knows where he'll land (unless he gets an extension). That said, the past year and six weeks, Jones has outperformed him. Tough to justify that deal from his end, I guess, but that trade is about where Zeke's quantified value is, unless I add a guy to make it dead even. 

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20 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

What are thoughts on Drew Brees' value in terms of 2021 rookie pick in a 12 tm dynasty where we start 1 QB?

Pretty close to zero.

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What's Will Fuller worth to a non-ppr semi-rebuilding team? Late first?

I'll settle for an opinion on just the non-ppr part.

Edited by Andy Dufresne

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4 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

What's Will Fuller worth to a non-ppr semi-rebuilding team? Late first?

I'll settle for an opinion on just the non-ppr part.

Production might dictate a late 1st value, but I don’t believe many/any pay that in non ppr due to his injury history.  

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4 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Production might dictate a late 1st value, but I don’t believe many/any pay that in non ppr due to his injury history.  

Pretty much spot-on, IMO.

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17 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

What's Will Fuller worth to a non-ppr semi-rebuilding team? Late first?

I'll settle for an opinion on just the non-ppr part.

I'm in a 16 TM PPR and I've offered him to all the top teams (some need another WR) for their 1st rd picks and all have declined. I know you said Non-ppr, but thought it might help.

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Will Fuller feels like a mid-2nd to me. He’s producing this year but it’s gonna take some time to expect any sort of consistency long term given his history. Maybe I’m biased from watching his owner in my dyno rant in the chat box the last two years

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18 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I agree on the plethora of WRs but I'm not sure there is going to be a clear cut RB to take at the top.  The current elite crop are hitting the age where dynasty owners start to lose interest that early, and the really young guys haven't played well enough to go that early.

I could definitely see DK going over Zeke who will be 26 by then, Saquon, Dalvin, CEH, and JT.  That leaves CMC as the real major competition for 1.01 but he'll be 25 and if they reduce his touches the back half of this year with Mike Davis looking like a guy plenty capable of getting 30% of the touches instead of 5% then that could really put the kabosh on the huge scoring advantage he was offering the last couple years.

Not saying it will for sure happen, but there is a pretty reasonable path to it.  In established leagues I don't think people would trade those RBs straight up for him but things are different in startup drafts where people are working from a blank slate and think they'll have plenty of time to take care of RB needs throughout the draft.

You make a good point, and I can see a path to him being 1 overall. I would still say it's more likely that CMC and Barkley are above any WRs, and a couple of Jacobs, Sanders, CEH, Taylor, Dalvin, Mixon, etc. will likely finish strong and look well set-up going into the season next year. 

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17 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Everybody hates Keenan Allen.

Evergreen statement.  I offloaded my last copies of him in 2019 because he's a trade albatross.  It doesn't make any sense, either.

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I’d believe Tyler Lockett’s value is higher than it will ever be.  I was looking for a game like this, to look to move him for a younger player.  I was contemplating going after Tee Higgins, as he’s 7 years younger, and tied to Joe Burrow for many years.  I’m now thinking of trying for DK Metcalf.  What is his dynasty value relative to those 2?  Fair offer?  Not enough for either Higgins or Metcalf?  Thanks 

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You could get Higgins from a contender for Lockett. You’re not getting close to DK from anybody really

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6 minutes ago, neal cassady said:

I’d believe Tyler Lockett’s value is higher than it will ever be.  I was looking for a game like this, to look to move him for a younger player.  I was contemplating going after Tee Higgins, as he’s 7 years younger, and tied to Joe Burrow for many years.  I’m now thinking of trying for DK Metcalf.  What is his dynasty value relative to those 2?  Fair offer?  Not enough for either Higgins or Metcalf?  Thanks 

For reference sake: 14 team league .. no ppr- before this week I sold Cam and Lockett for Lock and DJ Moore

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18 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Metcalf?  For Lockett?  :popcorn:

Well..this owner is prone to make rediculous deals.

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1 minute ago, neal cassady said:

Well..this owner is prone to make rediculous deals.

Well this would qualify.  Go for it then!

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Kyle Allen in a 12 team superflex league.

Am I way off that he's worth a late 2nd to a competing team that doesn't have a QB3?

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On 10/26/2020 at 9:37 AM, neal cassady said:

I’m now thinking of trying for DK Metcalf.  

A lot of people feel Metcalf could be the #1 overall dynasty player by season's end.

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Anybody else prefer Swift to Taylor? Am I crazy? I was surprised that their PFF grades are about the same, as Swift has looked better to me. Swift hasn’t blown me away either, but Taylor seems to have some potential red flags. Taylor’s athleticism is evident when he’s in space, but he’s struggled in traffic. I think I’d rather wait out Patricia than hope Taylor fixes his issues. 

The gap is tiny for me, I don’t want to sound more confident than I am. But I liked Swift more in April and Taylor hasn’t really capitalized on the opportunity that gave him such a value boost.

Edit: And I think I’d take Gibson over Dobbins.

Edited by Concept Coop
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3 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Anybody else prefer Swift to Taylor? Am I crazy? I was surprised that their PFF grades are about the same, as Swift has looked better to me. Swift hasn’t blown me away either, but Taylor seems to have some potential red flags. Taylor’s athleticism is evident when he’s in space, but he’s struggled in traffic. I think I’d rather wait out Patricia than hope Taylor fixes his issues. 

The gap is tiny for me, I don’t want to sound more confident than I am. But I liked Swift more in April and Taylor hasn’t really capitalized on the opportunity that gave him such a value boost.

I am indifferent. I know, at least in my leagues, the price on Taylor is very high. What are people seeing as a price to pay to get Swift in PPR dynasty?

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1 hour ago, Helaire-ious said:

I am indifferent. I know, at least in my leagues, the price on Taylor is very high. What are people seeing as a price to pay to get Swift in PPR dynasty?

I haven't seen any Swift or Taylor trades in my leagues, but ADP puts Taylor securely in round 1 and Swift in the 2nd/3rd.

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1 hour ago, FreshiZ said:

Kyle Allen in a 12 team superflex league.

Am I way off that he's worth a late 2nd to a competing team that doesn't have a QB3?

I’ll give you that in a SF league.

what about in Dynasty Leagues?

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1 hour ago, FreshiZ said:

Kyle Allen in a 12 team superflex league.

Am I way off that he's worth a late 2nd to a competing team that doesn't have a QB3?

I can see that in SF

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1 hour ago, Helaire-ious said:

I am indifferent. I know, at least in my leagues, the price on Taylor is very high. What are people seeing as a price to pay to get Swift in PPR dynasty?

I paid Evans straight up for Swift 1 week ago. I haven’t seen him traded elsewhere.
I agree the price on Taylor is very high. 
I offered T. Hill and Gaskin for Taylor and dernest Johnson. I got rejected with no counter with comment he has Taylor significantly higher than T. hill. That’s when I pivoted to other Rbs to acquire Aka swift.

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I’m having a hard time valuing Fournette. He’s not far removed from RB1/2 seasons, was cut by his team, landed in a good spot, is in a timeshare, got injured, is young’ish, etc, etc. 

I expect a wide range of values for him. Do you think he’s worth a late 1?  

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im a little bit biased about Engram's value so just looking for a reality check on his value 
im 5-2 and my te spot is my weakness 
I think this year is a write off for him  but he is still a top 5 te potential 
IDP Super flex TE premium league
.5 pt rb ppr
1 pt wr ppr
2 pt te ppr

i offered engram and a 1st for kittle and 2nd and was declined . i thought he would counter without a 2nd for sure 
was going to offer the same deal for waller 

am i off my rocker or close to his perceived trade value? 

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27 minutes ago, waiver wire said:

im a little bit biased about Engram's value so just looking for a reality check on his value 
im 5-2 and my te spot is my weakness 
I think this year is a write off for him  but he is still a top 5 te potential 
IDP Super flex TE premium league
.5 pt rb ppr
1 pt wr ppr
2 pt te ppr

i offered engram and a 1st for kittle and 2nd and was declined . i thought he would counter without a 2nd for sure 
was going to offer the same deal for waller 

am i off my rocker or close to his perceived trade value? 

I think Waller/mid 1is a respectable offer. The problem, especially when n TE Premium, is that the top guys are true difference makers. I can understand why teams aren’t excited to part with them. 

Edited by Blick
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6 minutes ago, Blick said:

I’m having a hard time valuing Fournette. He’s not far removed from RB1/2 seasons, was cut by his team, landed in a good spot, is in a timeshare, got injured, is young’ish, etc, etc. 

I expect a wide range of values for him. Do you think he’s worth a late 1?  

I sold him for two seconds right after he signed with Tampa. That he cleared waivers was a statement on how the league values him, IMO. I wouldn't trade a late 1st for him. Next years class looks deep, so probably not an early second either. He has upside if he lands in the right situation next season, and I could end up regretting the deal. But that's where I am at with him today.

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7 minutes ago, waiver wire said:

im a little bit biased about Engram's value so just looking for a reality check on his value 
im 5-2 and my te spot is my weakness 
I think this year is a write off for him  but he is still a top 5 te potential 
IDP Super flex TE premium league
.5 pt rb ppr
1 pt wr ppr
2 pt te ppr

i offered engram and a 1st for kittle and 2nd and was declined . i thought he would counter without a 2nd for sure 
was going to offer the same deal for waller 

am i off my rocker or close to his perceived trade value? 

Off your rocker.

Engram doesn't carry much value at all, IMO. Heck, he's almost unstartable, and we don't have a lot of reasons to think that will change any time soon. Especially in a TE premium league, guys like Waller and Kittle carry TONS of value and your offer isn't close.

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1 hour ago, kutta said:

Off your rocker.

Engram doesn't carry much value at all, IMO. Heck, he's almost unstartable, and we don't have a lot of reasons to think that will change any time soon. Especially in a TE premium league, guys like Waller and Kittle carry TONS of value and your offer isn't close.

Thanks for taking the time to reply .
Top TE in this league are definitely worth their weight in gold 
the top 3 are averaging over 20 ppg
the next 4-20 are in the 10 -15 ppg  

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1 hour ago, Blick said:

I think Waller/mid 1is a respectable offer. The problem, especially when n TE Premium, is that the top guys are true difference makers. I can understand why teams aren’t excited to part with them. 

thanks for taking the time to reply 
between the 2 responses so far is Engram's perceived trade value is from decent  to very low and im on the higher then average side of trade value
hopefully other chime in so i can get a better idea what the masses think
i dont like when owners send me crap offers so i dont want to send them out 
 

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

This did a lot to cool me on Taylor.

This was eye opening.

It reminds me a lot of Reggie Bush.  Obviously they are COMPLETELY different kinds of players but they both seemed to suffer from the same thing where instead of making a SUDDEN cut  or sudden move with a burst to make a guy miss while maintaining speed, they indecisively kind of juke in place and take 5 steps to not move at all, killing all their momentum and making it easy for the defender to just kind of wrap them up, and assuring that even if they do make the defender miss there will be 7 guys there to pile on them while they are standing in mud afterwards anyways.

It's even worse because unlike Bush he actually has the power to make a subtle move with sudden burst and run through an arm tackle to create a big play, but he just kind of gets stuck in place falling over himself instead.

Hopefully that's something that he can fix as "the game slows down for him".  I think Derrick Henry is a good example of a guy who finally figured out that he just needed to quit any dancing at all and focus on using subtle cuts to not juke defenders out of their shoes, but just get them off balance enough to leverage his size/speed combo to run through the arm tackle that he had created while maintaining his momentum.  Hopefully Taylor can do the same, but those runs in that video were really, really poor.

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Is there any value in holding Herndon to see what he looks like with Lawrence, or safe to drop at this point? Is he a candidate to be cut by Jets this offseason?

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35 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

It reminds me a lot of Reggie Bush.  Obviously they are COMPLETELY different kinds of players but they both seemed to suffer from the same thing where instead of making a SUDDEN cut  or sudden move with a burst to make a guy miss while maintaining speed, they indecisively kind of juke in place and take 5 steps to not move at all, killing all their momentum and making it easy for the defender to just kind of wrap them up, and assuring that even if they do make the defender miss there will be 7 guys there to pile on them while they are standing in mud afterwards anyways.

Taylor was doing that in his college highlights, it's just that nobody noticed. (Well, at the risk of tooting my own horn too soon, I did.)

As to the dynasty value question, I think Taylor and Swift are not quite equal because of Taylor's good situation with team, offensive line, and coaching staff stability. Swift may not be the new coaching staff's preferred guy, assuming Patricia and Quinn get shown the door, and that window on young running backs closes so quickly now.

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29 minutes ago, scoobus said:

Is there any value in holding Herndon to see what he looks like with Lawrence, or safe to drop at this point? Is he a candidate to be cut by Jets this offseason?

Interested in thoughts here as well. I've been holding him in a couple leagues but between his health and the teams overall stinkage it's hard to get a handle on him.

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I am curious what the sharks think... I was offered Shenault for my Engram (my TE3) and a 2022 2nd  (not mine; it stands to be a non-playoff. Yes, you can't predict that but it's a team that started a major rebuild this year). I am fairly deep at wide receiver, but value is value. 1 TE PPR

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7 hours ago, robb said:

I’ll give you that in a SF league.

what about in Dynasty Leagues?

Yes, it's Dynasty. Although probably not worth much in the future mainly it's for playoff teams this year.

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1 hour ago, You Know Who I Am said:

I am curious what the sharks think... I was offered Shenault for my Engram (my TE3) and a 2022 2nd  (not mine; it stands to be a non-playoff. Yes, you can't predict that but it's a team that started a major rebuild this year). I am fairly deep at wide receiver, but value is value. 1 TE PPR

I think I’d try to give up your 2nd instead if it’s going to be later. But I would probably take it either way. Shenault has flashed, and that’s what all you can really hope for in a 2nd round pick anyway. 

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Just curious, what is everyone’s thoughts on Michael Thomas? He’s taken a big hit in my eyes....the beginning year injury, then the fight and suspension, then a mystery injury surrounded by possible trade rumors (I know Payton dismissed them but still.....)

 

Still think he’s top 3? What if he ends up in a spot outside of New Orleans next year. I always thought his value was being with Brees and Payton.  I’m not sure where I value him now.

Was offered Thomas, OBJ and Ertz for Lockett and M Andrews in 12 team ppr dynasty league and both OBJ and Thomas scare me a little and Ertz is just dead weight.

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27 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

How would you rank R. jones, Fournette, Akers and Henderson?

Henderson

 

Fournette

Akers

 

Jones

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T1 - CEH

T2 - Jefferson, Lamb, Swift, Taylor

T3 - Gibson, Robinson, Dobbins

T4 - Higgins, Claypool

T5 - Jeudy, Herbert, Burrow, Ruggs

This rookie class is a lot of fun. Here’s my top 14. It feels like Lamb and Jefferson should be on a tier of their own - or at least  T1 - they’ve been incredible. But there are too many quality WRs and too few quality RBs. That I’m ranking them where I am is high praise. Both are comfortably in the 2nd round startup range for me.

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35 minutes ago, Blick said:

Henderson

 

Fournette

Akers

 

Jones

I really struggle with this group, hence the question. They’re all on the same tier for me, I think. I’d go Henderson, Jones, Akers,  Fournette right now. That might change in a few minutes, however.

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22 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

T1 - CEH

T2 - Jefferson, Lamb, Swift, Taylor

T3 - Gibson, Robinson, Dobbins

T4 - Higgins, Claypool

T5 - Jeudy, Herbert, Burrow, Ruggs

T1 - CEH, Lamb, Jefferson

T2 - Higgins, Claypool, Robinson, Herbert, Burrow, Taylor

T3 - Gibson, Swift

T4 - Jeudy, Ruggs, Dobbins

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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