I think you are being a tad misleading with some of your stats.
DJ has averaged 4.3 YPC. Marshall Faulk averaged.... 4.3 YPC over his career. Emmitt Smith averaged... 4.2 YPC. Walter Payton averaged... 4.4 YPC. So some pretty darn good RB's have averaged what DJ is averaging for their careers. 4.3 YPC is just fine with the volume he was seeing.
And regarding age, he turns 27 on December 16 next year. So he will be 26 for most of the year next year.
I do agree that there are some questions surrounding his usage now that Arians is gone. But his YPC and age are two of my least concerns regarding DJ.
I've got no intention of misleading, as I don't have him and am not pursuing him in any leagues.
I find your use of career averages to be a tad misleading. Those guys played in a different era. Also, career stats always include the tail end of the career which brings averages down. I'm not trying to say 4.2 ypc is
bad, but it's not exactly an inspiring number, either. My point was that we've only really got one volume aided season on this guy and he'll be turning 27 next year. I'd feel a lot better about ranking him in the top 5 if (1) there was more data, (2) his YPC was more eye popping, (3) his team wasn't on the brink of a total collapse, and (4) he was younger.
I didn't say YPC and age should be anyone's prime concerns with him. I thought I made it pretty clear that my prime concerns with him are the loss of his offensive head coach and the overall poor standing of the franchise.
Re: Ajayi, as an Eagles an I'd gladly pay a 2nd for him, even if Blount is back. I think the writing is on the wall he's the main back in a RBBC going forward. The Eagles don't have a 2nd or 3rd next year and I doubt they spend a 1st on RB. They'll have Pumphrey coming back from injury (who struggled a lot whenever pads were on, but they will no doubt give another chance). Clement is a legit NFL RB but not as good as Ajayi so clearly behind him. Unless his ego gets in the way he seems like a safe RB2 for next year with possibility of extended value and small chance of RB1 breakout. Eagles already drafted a RB for next year - it is Ajayi.
Excellent point. I hadn't delved into their draft picks. I still don't think anyone is eager to part with anything more than a 2nd rounder for him, then again, I haven't been following him too closely. Just seen him getting shopped in a couple leagues without luck.
Usually when some one says that a RB's production was dependent on volume it implies they had low ypc (i.e. Melvin Gordon) but continued to see a heavy workload.
David Johnson averaged 4.4 yards per carry in 2016 and 12.7 ypr (abnormally high for a RB) while scoring 20 total TDs. I think that's very efficient. I'm sure most would see it that way, but I guess you have a tough grading system.
While it's highly likely his TD totals will go down I try not to speak in absolutes when discussing the future in fantasy football.
To the overall point, given the current landscape I think he's still a top 10 RB and arguably a top 5 RB in dynasty. I do agree a coaching change and an unknown supporting cast adds an element of risk - but like any player "risk v. reward" is what we do,
FBG has him rushing for 4.22 ypc in 2016.
I feel like he's a top 5 RB in the lists I see on here, but there's no way I'd pay a top 5 price for him at this point. If doing a startup, I'd much rather stretch those dollars into 2-3 other players I deem underrated. But don't get me wrong - I don't want Melvin Gordon, either (since you mentioned him).
I don't mean to say he was
inefficient in 2016 by saying his season was volume based, but more to imply that said volume (along with the goal line carries) will likely dwindle next season. And I don't see him offsetting it by increasing his efficiency. RB YPR is extremely difficult to predict, so I'd bet the farm on the under vs. the 12.7 YPR in 2016.
I feel like the 2018 Cardinals could be the 2016 (or 2017) Browns. What would DJ's value have been last year if he got traded to the Browns? What would DJ's stats have looked like if he played on the 2016 Browns? Conversely, what would Crowell's value be if he'd been Arian's bell cow in 2016? As much as dynasty rankings supposedly value talent over situation, I feel like they remain conflated with situation, yet are not taking it into account when ranking DJ going forward. If he tanks on a terrible team, he could easily get relegated to a Duke Johnson-esque role in a RBBC as a FA in 2019. That can have value, but not top 5 value.
