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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (15 Viewers)

I offered McCaffrey for Mixon straight up yesterday and got turned down so fast I wondered if I really made the offer.  Had to check to make sure.

In terms of draft picks in a PPR this is how I'd view McCaffrey.

I'd take picks 1-3 for him no question. If I got a RB need I keep him for anything less then pick 3, for now. If I don't have a RB need I'd take pick 4 for him. I'm probably holding until the draft shakes out for anything less than pick 4 right now.
I don't get that.  Mccaffrey went that high last year in a better draft class and proved his value in PPR.  No clue why you would think his value is essentially lower now when adjusted for strength of draft class.  Do you think this year's class is stronger than last year's for PPR?

 
I would tend to agree this answer.

I've been mulling over exact question since yesterday when someone asked me if I'd be open to moving Kupp and 1.10 for 1.4  I was trying to gauge what I felt was equitable to pay to move up from 10 to 4 and came to conclusion that right now something like another late first made seemed adequate.


Thanks for feedback and so did I. I felt that a late one should be added to the 10 to get to 4 and that was range of what Kupp is worth.
As an owner of 1.04 in a league that values WR heavy, I still don't think I trade it for kupp and the 10. But it's really close. 

I offered McCaffrey for Mixon straight up yesterday and got turned down so fast I wondered if I really made the offer.  Had to check to make sure.

In terms of draft picks in a PPR this is how I'd view McCaffrey.

I'd take picks 1-3 for him no question. If I got a RB need I keep him for anything less then pick 3, for now. If I don't have a RB need I'd take pick 4 for him. I'm probably holding until the draft shakes out for anything less than pick 4 right now.
Just my :2cents: but I think McCaffery is worth more than mixon in ppr. Mixon has a certain shine to him that I think is overblown. 

 
As an owner of 1.04 in a league that values WR heavy, I still don't think I trade it for kupp and the 10. But it's really close. 

Just my :2cents: but I think McCaffery is worth more than mixon in ppr. Mixon has a certain shine to him that I think is overblown. 
People have been really high on mixon for a while  and can’t seem to wrap their head around it when someone doesn’t want him. How many times have I read this offseason “offered mixon+ for (name blue chip piece) and was declined with no counter.” I think the people that took him #1 overall last year will be regretting it, and are probably the same people on the CMC page talking about how terribly overrated he is. 

 
Any chance mixon and Perine were the beneficiaries of an excellent oline? Neither one really impressed me in their rookie years. 

 
Any chance mixon and Perine were the beneficiaries of an excellent oline? Neither one really impressed me in their rookie years. 
Possible.

Also possible they benefited in some ways from each other. Mixon more than Perine in this regard. 

Perine did most of the difficult unsexy stuff, while Mixon got the offensive weapon type looks.

Really would need to delve into their offensive line players, where they were drafted into the NFL and some rankings of offensive lines to be sure if that was a benefit or not.

With Alabama and Ohio State this should be pretty much a given that the players are benefiting from strong supporting cast. Other teams have good offensive line players for awhile. For example Indiana with Coleman was a good offensive line. Had some players drafted from it already. LSU was a good offensive line when Hill was drafted and just a good team overall, similar to Oklahoma. Not sure their offensive line players the last 2 years has been as good as it was for a few years there or not.

Just looked it up and there have been zero Oklahoma offensive linemen drafted into the NFL since 2015. 2 tackles were drafted, 4th and 6th round, so not particularly great offensive linemen.

Possible some Sooner offensive linemen will be drafted this year, which could give us more information about that.

According to FBO Oklahoma was a very good run blocking offensive line in college football 2016. Right up there with Ohio State for example with some top 5 rankings in their metrics.

edit - correction. Oaklahoma was a better offensive line in 2017, top 10 in several of FBO metrics. This was after Perine and Mixon were drafted however, in 2016 they were 19th 45th and 47th.

So above average but not really a great offensive line.

I guess I'm not sure if your talking about the college or pro offensive lines though. Washington is good but they had tons of injuries this year. The Bengals used to be good but clearly regressed after losing Whitworth and Zeitler.

 
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Any chance mixon and Perine were the beneficiaries of an excellent oline? Neither one really impressed me in their rookie years. 
They were both a bottom half run blocking and pass pro unit....  There were moments for each I think, but Perine looks like a 2 down thumper who is slightly above a replaceable level talent.  Mixon has both traits in pass catching and running and showed chops at both, just needs more consistent help from the entire offense.  

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

 
I don't get that.  Mccaffrey went that high last year in a better draft class and proved his value in PPR.  No clue why you would think his value is essentially lower now when adjusted for strength of draft class.  Do you think this year's class is stronger than last year's for PPR?
I don't think he proved his value in PPR at all. He showed a solid floor but even that's a concern going forward but a solid RB2 floor is not the value he was chosen. When you average 27 yards rushing a game and less than 70 total yards a game, while for the most part being healthy, you proved absolutely nothing to justify being that high of a draft pick.

I don't even understand your last question but do I think I can find a better PPR fantasy player at pick 3 or 4? Yes, absolutely yes.

 
I don't think he proved his value in PPR at all. He showed a solid floor but even that's a concern going forward but a solid RB2 floor is not the value he was chosen. When you average 27 yards rushing a game and less than 70 total yards a game, while for the most part being healthy, you proved absolutely nothing to justify being that high of a draft pick.

I don't even understand your last question but do I think I can find a better PPR fantasy player at pick 3 or 4? Yes, absolutely yes.
He wa a top 10 scoring RB in ppr leagues.  :shrug:

 
Just my :2cents: but I think McCaffery is worth more than mixon in ppr. Mixon has a certain shine to him that I think is overblown. 
Mixon to me was the most talented RB in last years class, I had him down as not doing much this season due to OL and Hill/Gio usage but I thought he looked like the guy I thought he'd be last few weeks of the season. The return of Marvin was a bit of a downer, but I absolutely liked what I saw of him last few games of the season.

 
I don't think he proved his value in PPR at all. He showed a solid floor but even that's a concern going forward but a solid RB2 floor is not the value he was chosen. When you average 27 yards rushing a game and less than 70 total yards a game, while for the most part being healthy, you proved absolutely nothing to justify being that high of a draft pick.

I don't even understand your last question but do I think I can find a better PPR fantasy player at pick 3 or 4? Yes, absolutely yes.
Your're excluding the points he gets per reception in a PPR league.

 
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He wa a top 10 scoring RB in ppr leagues.  :shrug:
In PPG he was RB13 in my leagues and I referenced the high floor but he 14.7 PPG when the team is going out of their way to find ways to use you is not impressive to me.

Duke Johnson as an example is on a team that underutilizes him, does not go out of it's way to find ways to get him the ball, got 2.5 touches a game less then CMC and only trailed him by about 1.4 FPG.  Be hard to get any first round pick for Duke and he gave you similar production to McCaffrey last year.

And as I said, I got worries he can even do what he did last year.

 
Mixon to me was the most talented RB in last years class, I had him down as not doing much this season due to OL and Hill/Gio usage but I thought he looked like the guy I thought he'd be last few weeks of the season. The return of Marvin was a bit of a downer, but I absolutely liked what I saw of him last few games of the season.
Mccaffery was a wasted pick, but mixon looks legit? C’mon, man! Can’t make the same arguement with stewart there cmcs usage would be down? You liked him the last few games of the season but want to ignore cmcs production increase the 2nd half of the season? 

 
Mccaffery was a wasted pick, but mixon looks legit? C’mon, man! Can’t make the same arguement with stewart there cmcs usage would be down? You liked him the last few games of the season but want to ignore cmcs production increase the 2nd half of the season? 
Who said McCaffrey was a wasted pick? Who said I was ignoring anything? Stop wasting my time with inaccurate replies.

 
I don't think he proved his value in PPR at all. He showed a solid floor but even that's a concern going forward but a solid RB2 floor is not the value he was chosen. When you average 27 yards rushing a game and less than 70 total yards a game, while for the most part being healthy, you proved absolutely nothing to justify being that high of a draft pick.

I don't even understand your last question but do I think I can find a better PPR fantasy player at pick 3 or 4? Yes, absolutely yes.
I suppose I am putting words in your mouth by saying “wasted pick”. Sorry if I am misunderstanding your take here. 

 
I suppose I am putting words in your mouth by saying “wasted pick”. Sorry if I am misunderstanding your take here. 
Fair enough but keep in mind the post I made last night that sparked a lot of this convo was one where I specificially mentioned that I would move him for a top 3 pick, but would not deal him for pick 4 right now if I needed a RB and would not deal him for anything less than pick 4 even if I had no RB need. I'm sure you can agree that's not calling him a wasted pick.

 
Fair enough but keep in mind the post I made last night that sparked a lot of this convo was one where I specificially mentioned that I would move him for a top 3 pick, but would not deal him for pick 4 right now if I needed a RB and would not deal him for anything less than pick 4 even if I had no RB need. I'm sure you can agree that's not calling him a wasted pick.
Very true.  In non-PPR, I would put a value on him similar to yours.  In PPR, I'm not sure I'd trade him away for pick 1.2 - that would be tough.  I don't see anyone at 1.2 who impresses me that much in PPR, but that could change depending on where each guy gets drafted this year.

 
Any chance mixon and Perine were the beneficiaries of an excellent oline? Neither one really impressed me in their rookie years. 
I don't remember the numbers off the top of my head but I believe I posted them in the mixon thread but how is over 900 total yards, a couple TDs and like 25? Catches bad for a rookie RB that wasn't used the first 2 games, missed another 2 later in the year to injury and was on a crappy team bad. I get it that he didn't live up to his hype but rookies rarely ever do especially when people put it as high as they did his.

McCaffery is the same way, he did very good his rookie year. If you thought he was gonna come in and be a 3 down back then your disappointed but you also set the bar way to high. I mean come on, didn't he just set the rookie rb reception mark and didn't do it with fluky games. Most likely he gets involved in rushing in the next couple of years but even if he doesn't there's no reason to expect him not to catch 70-80 passes a year and have some big games.

I would agree with most here that I'd give them up for the 1.1 or 1.2 but after that I will take the rookies from last year that both had very good rookie years

 
I never exluded a thing. I referenced the lack of production, I can do that without needing to state the obvious that he got you 5 points a game in PPR. 
But you're doing that by subtracting out production.

And you subtracted out the 7 TDs too. 

So it seems like you're saying that a subset of his production wasn't very productive. Which IS difficult to refute, but isn't really the argument.

A rookie with 80 catches, 1000+ yards, and 7 Tds had a GREAT year in PPR.

 
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But you're doing that by subtracting out production.

And you subtracted out the 7 TDs too. 

So it seems like you're saying that a subset of his production wasn't very productive. Which IS difficult to refute, but isn't really the argument.
If I listed his fantasy points as just what he got in yardage you'd have a point. I didn't and you don't. I exluded nothing.

What I said was his receptions proved he has a solid floor, but his lack of overall production, mainly the lack of yardage, did not make him a proven player to me or proven as a future big time PPR producer, solid for sure but not what I was hoping when I drafted him.

What I did not say but meant to imply was that I don't feel comfortable relying on a RB who needed a whopping 114 targets, the 7th most since 2002 just to be able to achieve having a high floor because the rest of his game was lacking. This is also a concern moving forward since he got a new OC.

 
That's another criticism I'll never understand..."Well yeah he got good numbers but that's only because they used him so much."

It's all good though. Differing opinions means trading actually happens, which is more fun.

 
Yeah I would very much disagree with the notion that McCaffrey has increased his stock since last year, at least in my eyes.

He looked poor running the ball and wasn't nearly as dynamic as we all were hoping for with the ball in his hands in space after the catch.  The real upside with McCaffrey was that he could handle a big role like he did in college and be a lead back who was also really good at catching the ball.  That he could be a Marshall Faulk type player, not a Theo Riddick type player.

I have posted the data all over the place (probably in this very thread at some point), but history is very unkind to long-term fantasy success for guys that get their value in the way McCaffrey did this year.  A very low percentage of RBs that catch 80+ balls in a season ever do it again in their careers, and most of the ones that do are workhorse backs who are out on the field every play.  I believe Larry Centers is the only passing specialist in NFL HISTORY to catch 80+ passes more than once in his career (though I could be forgetting someone, like I said the data is somewhere in this thread).  Obviously the game is changing but recent players have had even less success with it than the guys 15+ years ago.

Personally, I typically look to sell players that eek out good volume fantasy points in an inefficient way that historically is not maintainable long-term.  For me, McCaffrey fits that to a T.  He did improve running the ball towards the end of the year, so maybe there is hope there.  But if what people are hoping for is him retiring with double the number of receptions of any RB in NFL history (which he would have to have to keep catching passes at the rate he did this year), then I'm out.

 
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That's another criticism I'll never understand..."Well yeah he got good numbers but that's only because they used him so much."

It's all good though. Differing opinions means trading actually happens, which is more fun.
Not really arguing that but I admit it's a concern when I think of him going forward.

Let me first backtrack.  As I pointed out to Snorkelson what got a lot of this CMC talk going was fact I offered him for Mixon and put his trade value as roughly pick 3 or 4 in this years rookie class. I'll ignore the Mixon angle for the moment, he's another discussion and I'm petering out,  I'll just say that I absolutely love the top 4 picks right now, so it's not like I'm trying to piss all over McCaffrey. What I am saying is he has not proven enough to me for not to gamble on the unknown of say pick 3 or so right now.

I'll put this another way.  I viewed McCaffrey as the safest rookie last year. That was based on combo of high floor that receiving RB's normally have and the pedigree of being the 8th pick in the draft because when you are taken that high I think it's safe to conclude two things. One is they must have a plan for him to take him that high and because he was selected he's got a longer leash and the staff has pressure to some degree to justify the pick.  This part was good, he was safe-barely produced as rusher but gave a solid season, the team did have a plan for him.

But now the GM who picked him is gone, the OC is gone and soon even the owner. Part of his appeal to me was the pedigree of being the 8th pick for the reasons I stated and most of what appealed to me about that is out the window now.

Now here is where I'll probably draw the ire of CMC lovers. He did improve as a runner but I just came away thinking he'll not only ever be good enough to be a three down type feature back and but even worse is that I view him more as a third down/COP/gimmick back.  I saw a guy who is a lot like Woodhead with some Tavon Austin to his game in how he can help open up offense for others.

Now he's got Norv. The same guy who kill off Cordarelle Patterson in the struggling Vikings offense because he refused to adjust his offense to work in things he could do, showed no creativity for a player that needed it.  This worries me because I think CMC needs a creative mind who will look at the things he can do well and build a plan around that, I worry Norv is not that guy. So in that sense I do have some concern he can continue to get such a large amount of work in the receiving game and I think he'll need it. I think common perception is he looked better as a runner finishing the seasons and will continue to improve on his overall numbers but I have more fear of regression then improvement.

 
McCaffrey is an excellent #2 RB...the upside we saw at this time last year may not come to total fruition but I feel pretty confident that the worst you are going to get is something like last year in one way, shape or form...and I will take that all day long from my #2...all about realistic expectations with him right now...he may not turn into the stud some thought he would be but he will still be a very productive fantasy back...

 
McCaffrey is an excellent #2 RB...the upside we saw at this time last year may not come to total fruition but I feel pretty confident that the worst you are going to get is something like last year in one way, shape or form...and I will take that all day long from my #2...all about realistic expectations with him right now...he may not turn into the stud some thought he would be but he will still be a very productive fantasy back...
Agreed.  And if searching for a silver lining, not being a 250+ carry RB might result in a longer career.

 
I have posted the data all over the place (probably in this very thread at some point), but history is very unkind to long-term fantasy success for guys that get their value in the way McCaffrey did this year.  A very low percentage of RBs that catch 80+ balls in a season ever do it again in their careers, and most of the ones that do are workhorse backs who are out on the field every play.
Yes, you have. I'm not sure why you keep repeating the same information. I don't put nearly as much stock in it as you do for a number of reasons. The game evolves, trends change.

Your sample size is small, which you take as evidence that he is unlikely to repeat 80 catches... but conversely, how many RBs in NFL history did it in their first season? How many did it age 21? I'm guessing none, but, if others did, how did their careers turn out? Is that sample size meaningful? I strongly doubt that. McCaffrey has done something that few, if any, others have ever done... why assume that trends from the past apply equally to him?

IMO it is better to examine his situation rather than historical trends. Will he have better targets around him to draw targets away? Will Stewart be back? If not, what other RBs will McCaffrey be competing with for touches? How will Norv Turner use him? Etc.

 
Agreed.  And if searching for a silver lining, not being a 250+ carry RB might result in a longer career.
A screen pass in space against a CB or Safety instead of a run up the middle pounding into Fletcher Cox or Suh does sound a little better for the body...

 
Yes, you have. I'm not sure why you keep repeating the same information. I don't put nearly as much stock in it as you do for a number of reasons. The game evolves, trends change.

Your sample size is small, which you take as evidence that he is unlikely to repeat 80 catches... but conversely, how many RBs in NFL history did it in their first season? How many did it age 21? I'm guessing none, but, if others did, how did their careers turn out? Is that sample size meaningful? I strongly doubt that. McCaffrey has done something that few, if any, others have ever done... why assume that trends from the past apply equally to him?

IMO it is better to examine his situation rather than historical trends. Will he have better targets around him to draw targets away? Will Stewart be back? If not, what other RBs will McCaffrey be competing with for touches? How will Norv Turner use him? Etc.
This is where I'm at with it. I'm not drafting him versus historical players nor am I extrapolating those historical numbers to future players*.

For me, I the here and now, I don't see this next year's batch of players being able to match or exceed the numbers McCaffrey has already shown capable of. But that's just how I see it.

*This is akin to politics where polls always show a preference for a hypothetical future candidate over the known incumbent.

 
I'm curious what the perceived Dynasty value difference is between TE David Njoku (CLE) and Jonnu Smith (TENN) ? 
I've got Njoku ahead by quite a bit, but I do have concerns with Todd Haley taking over as OC and play caller. Looking over his years in Arizona, Kansas City and Pitt there are very few years where the TE position put up even decent numbers. Heath Miller had a couple of respectable seasons, although he seemed to be more of a safety valve option for Big Ben than someone that was targeted as a top option.

 
Yes, you have. I'm not sure why you keep repeating the same information. I don't put nearly as much stock in it as you do for a number of reasons. The game evolves, trends change.

Your sample size is small, which you take as evidence that he is unlikely to repeat 80 catches... but conversely, how many RBs in NFL history did it in their first season? How many did it age 21? I'm guessing none, but, if others did, how did their careers turn out? Is that sample size meaningful? I strongly doubt that. McCaffrey has done something that few, if any, others have ever done... why assume that trends from the past apply equally to him?

IMO it is better to examine his situation rather than historical trends. Will he have better targets around him to draw targets away? Will Stewart be back? If not, what other RBs will McCaffrey be competing with for touches? How will Norv Turner use him? Etc.
That last part does not have me feeling confident. Perhaps something you can relate to.

 
I'm curious what the perceived Dynasty value difference is between TE David Njoku (CLE) and Jonnu Smith (TENN) ? 
For me this has been tier one prospect Njoku and low tier two prospect Smith.

I really like Smith as a football player, not sure how he will develop as a receiver. While Cleveland is kind of a mess to put any prediction to, Njoku could be a very good receiving TE and relevant for fantasy football if Cleveland becomes at all competent. 

I don't see Smith having the same relevance for fantasy football as Njoku, but Smith could be useful and maybe have some good seasons.

In some ways the outlook for Smith might be higher if Mularkey had been retained as the head coach. I have a little less confidence in targets being conservatively force fed to the good receiving TE over WR.

 
.  I saw a guy who is a lot like Woodhead with some Tavon Austin to his game in how he can help open up offense for others.
Woodhead is exactly the comp here. With slightly higher upside. Which is surprisingly good in ppr.

Is OJ Howard not the stud we thought he was out of college?
He's who we thought he was. Talented but needs work and time to be relevant in fantasy.

If you look back at the discussions about him, most of us expressed concern that he was mostly a blocker at bama. In time he should be a solid te, but unlikely to be a top 12 guy.

 
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TEs take a while to develop in the NFL. Impact  rookie seasons at the position are few and far between.
Agreed...would like to have seen more targets (only 39) but 26-432-6 in 14 games is pretty productive for that # of targets...also, Winton's subpar year didn't help anyone in that offense...

 
-OZ- said:
Woodhead is exactly the comp here. With slightly higher upside. Which is surprisingly good in ppr.

He's who we thought he was. Talented but needs work and time to be relevant in fantasy.

If you look back at the discussions about him, most of us expressed concern that he was mostly a blocker at bama. In time he should be a solid te, but unlikely to be a top 12 guy.
Through Week 15 (before he went to IR), Howard was TE #13 in my league (TD-heavy, non-PPR).  As a rookie.

 
I've got Njoku ahead by quite a bit, but I do have concerns with Todd Haley taking over as OC and play caller. Looking over his years in Arizona, Kansas City and Pitt there are very few years where the TE position put up even decent numbers. Heath Miller had a couple of respectable seasons, although he seemed to be more of a safety valve option for Big Ben than someone that was targeted as a top option.
But who were his TEs in that span? I can't think of anyone as athletically gifted as Njoku aside from maybe Ladarius who never really played. Also, he will likely have a very young QB, most young QBs love the TE as a safety valve. Even if they go out and pay a veteran or trade for someone like, Alex Smith, that is great as well.

Is OJ Howard not the stud we thought he was out of college?
I think the whole team regressed this year. Dirk is a joke. Their offense is a joke. We may have to wait until year 3 or 4 before he blows everyone away, but I think it will come. Jameis' maturity as he progresses thru his career will play a role as well I think. He has some very nice weapons on offense, not sure why they under performed so poorly. Brate was clearly hampering his opp's tho

 
But who were his TEs in that span? I can't think of anyone as athletically gifted as Njoku aside from maybe Ladarius who never really played. Also, he will likely have a very young QB, most young QBs love the TE as a safety valve. Even if they go out and pay a veteran or trade for someone like, Alex Smith, that is great as well.
Yeah, I agree, it's just a concern. Like I said, I still like him a lot, I just have never thought of Haley as TE friendly. I went back and looked at the crossover between him and Heath Miller in Pitt and Millers numbers did increase some, so that's good. He's a good OC, just not sure he's good for TE's.

 
Apologize if this has already been discussed...what are people thinking about Kupp and Woods?  I am very high on both but want to make sure I am not too high based on one season...McVay did a great job last year and Goff looks legit...Kupp had an excellent year for any rookie WR but even moreso when you factor in that he played for a small school...Woods is a guy that really passed the eye test for me last year...I saw him play a ton with Buffalo and he had flashes but it seemed to all be coming together for him in 2017 and you gotta love getting 14 targets and finishing with a 9-142 line in a playoff game...what's the upside here?

 
Apologize if this has already been discussed...what are people thinking about Kupp and Woods?  I am very high on both but want to make sure I am not too high based on one season...McVay did a great job last year and Goff looks legit...Kupp had an excellent year for any rookie WR but even moreso when you factor in that he played for a small school...Woods is a guy that really passed the eye test for me last year...I saw him play a ton with Buffalo and he had flashes but it seemed to all be coming together for him in 2017 and you gotta love getting 14 targets and finishing with a 9-142 line in a playoff game...what's the upside here?
It has been talked about a bit already.

The outlook hinges somewhat on what they do with Watkins. If they keep him and he gets targeted more, then this means less opportunity for Woods and Kupp. If they do not keep Watkins, then a normal progression for both players productivity seems appropriate to expect.

I still see Gerald Everett becoming more involved with the passing game as he develops. So what they do with Watkins is going to have an effect on the opportunity of the rest of their receivers.

If Watkins stays then opportunity for Woods and Kupp stays the same or possibly goes down slightly. If Watkins does then I think Woods and Kupp get a slight uptick in opportunity.

 
What are the projections for Everett's & Cook's values next season?
Which Cook(s) are you talking about?

I just mentioned Everett a bit in my previous post. I think what the Rams do with Watkins has some impact on Everett's opportunity as a receiver. They did use Everett somewhat as a rookie and he made some splash plays. He is capable of more. But right now too many mouths to feed for Everett to do much more. Tyler Higbee is an obstacle to his playing time as well.

 

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