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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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2 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

As an outsider, I think you guys should include rookie picks in your draft as it would be a great valuation gauge prior to the combine and NFL draft.

there ya go, that would make sense

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

If we do BPA, wouldn't we be better off just making our own rankings and creating an aggregate set of rankings between them?  I could be misunderstanding you.

Edit: How do you rank players outside of their positional value and a specific setup?  For example, QBs score the most and last the longest. Without drafting for a specific setup, and without lineup requirements, it wouldn't make sense to draft anything else until the quality QBs are gone.  

But again, I could be misunderstanding you. 

Well whoever each drafter considers to be the BPA would be their perspective on that. 

The point I was trying to get at is that if someone is on the clock but they are not around to make the pick, there shouldn't be an issue with someone else making the pick, even though they may have a very different strategy than the person who was drafting from their slot earlier in the draft. That the results of this shouldn't be thrown off much, and still reflect some form of best player available at a point of the draft people could get a sense about.

I was more trying to get at that having shorter time limits for picks, such as four hours would work by having whoever is around pick for that team so the mock can keep moving.

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Anyone else see this as possibly the time to move devante Parker? If stills resigns with MIA he will pretty much be 3rd in the pecking order (or 4th if you think ajayi gets more targets) and the possibility of adding a te threat, which gase seems to prefer historically. I think his value is still decent at the moment, but could get sunk come free agency. 

Flip side, stills leaves and Parker flourishes. I guess the question is will stills chase the $$ in fa or stick with the team. Also have to worry about caroo waiting in the wings.

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31 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Anyone else see this as possibly the time to move devante Parker? If stills resigns with MIA he will pretty much be 3rd in the pecking order (or 4th if you think ajayi gets more targets) and the possibility of adding a te threat, which gase seems to prefer historically. I think his value is still decent at the moment, but could get sunk come free agency. 

Flip side, stills leaves and Parker flourishes. I guess the question is will stills chase the $$ in fa or stick with the team. Also have to worry about caroo waiting in the wings.

Im surprised hes still worth as much as he is. Still being valued around 30th overall. He flashes just enough to tantalize people.

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14 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Hmmmm, our own rankings, then take the averages and list them.  That's an idea. 

We could make a google docs spreadsheet and make it public. We could update it periodically. Since FBG's have dropped the ball on dynasty rankings, we'll do our own dammit.

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1 hour ago, fruity pebbles said:

Im surprised hes still worth as much as he is. Still being valued around 30th overall. He flashes just enough to tantalize people.

I'll admit it; I'm tantalized.  I'm not sure about 30th overall, but I'm a heedful buyer.  I'd take him over Sterling Shepard, to throw a name out there.  

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16 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Well whoever each drafter considers to be the BPA would be their perspective on that. 

The point I was trying to get at is that if someone is on the clock but they are not around to make the pick, there shouldn't be an issue with someone else making the pick, even though they may have a very different strategy than the person who was drafting from their slot earlier in the draft. That the results of this shouldn't be thrown off much, and still reflect some form of best player available at a point of the draft people could get a sense about.

I was more trying to get at that having shorter time limits for picks, such as four hours would work by having whoever is around pick for that team so the mock can keep moving.

I think a short timer works, but I think we should still draft with roster construction and starting reqs in mind.  The substitute owners should still take the existing roster into consideration, IMO.  I think we'll get a more accurate ADP that way.  Otherwise, the RBs are going to fall like rocks and the QBs rise a good deal.  But I'm with you on the shorter timer.  

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22 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Greg Olsen in non-ppr...worth a 1st rounder?

Not in my league. People would rather have one of the incoming TEs who would definitely be available with picks 10-12 in the 1st. Some talking heads have questioned whether L Green might retire and Steelers might go TE in the 1st.  If they do, I'd rather have Howard than Olsen at his age.

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Anybody buying or selling Gurley?  I don't think his owners are selling low, but I don't think he's as untouchable as he was at one point.  Fisher getting canned has to provide some hope, although they don't have many assets with which to improve the weapons around him.  

I expect to value Fournette and maybe Cook over him, which would put him at RB5 or 6 for me.  He's in a weird spot, however, in that if I'm buying--I'm looking to pay more for one of the big 3, or less for guys like Gordon or Ajayi. 

I don't own him, but am tempted to call him a sell.  I'd add a small piece to turn him into the 1.01 (2nd?).  I'd add a pretty substantial piece to turn him into Zeke (mid-1st?).  I'd happily "downgrade" to Gordon or Ajayi with an extra piece coming back my way (late 1st/mid 1st respectively?).  

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10 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

Not in my league. People would rather have one of the incoming TEs who would definitely be available with picks 10-12 in the 1st. Some talking heads have questioned whether L Green might retire and Steelers might go TE in the 1st.  If they do, I'd rather have Howard than Olsen at his age.

This is the first I've heard of this.  He's really young.  Why would he walk away?

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3 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

This is the first I've heard of this.  He's really young.  Why would he walk away?

Many concussions, and the most recent came on a hit that wasn't that hard. Just seems susceptible to them, unfortunately.

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So trying to a bit of speculating on running back values pre free agency and draft, I think we can all agree this looks like a good rb class coming in, who do we think is set to lose value as they will be replaced or demoted?? who are the guys to unload now? anyone have any that are not obvious?? recently I think back to someone like Tre Mason who seemed to be sitting in a good spot after a decent year and then to get replaced by Gurley. Some obvious ones this year appear to be Jonathan Stewart and Frank Gore based on early mocks. Who else?? Where are all the rookie rbs going to land?

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Rob Kelley. I like him as a runner but I think he's easily replaceable. 

Terence West  - maybe they like Dixon, maybe they draft someone  

Yeldon/Ivory 

 

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22 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

So trying to a bit of speculating on running back values pre free agency and draft, I think we can all agree this looks like a good rb class coming in, who do we think is set to lose value as they will be replaced or demoted?? who are the guys to unload now? anyone have any that are not obvious?? recently I think back to someone like Tre Mason who seemed to be sitting in a good spot after a decent year and then to get replaced by Gurley. Some obvious ones this year appear to be Jonathan Stewart and Frank Gore based on early mocks. Who else?? Where are all the rookie rbs going to land?

Philadelphia

Washington

Giants

Green Bay

Detroit

Minnesota

Tampa Bay

Jets

Jacksonville

Id say all these teams could be looking to upgrade the RB position this coming year.

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3 minutes ago, petekrum said:

Philadelphia

Washington

Giants

Green Bay

Detroit

Minnesota

Tampa Bay

Jets

Jacksonville

Id say all these teams could be looking to upgrade the RB position this coming year.

With Abdullah & Riddick coming back from injury and Zenner stepping up I doubt DET takes a RB in the first 5 rounds. Too many other holes to plug.

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4 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I think a short timer works, but I think we should still draft with roster construction and starting reqs in mind.  The substitute owners should still take the existing roster into consideration, IMO.  I think we'll get a more accurate ADP that way.  Otherwise, the RBs are going to fall like rocks and the QBs rise a good deal.  But I'm with you on the shorter timer.  

Part of my comments are based on mock drafts last season, and having some regrets, which is bound to happen with hindsight.

At the same time I think I could do a better job as a drafted trying to focus on BPA rather than trying to follow a specific strategy.

In a couple of the mocks I did last year, I decided before the draft to not take any rookie players for example, another strategy I used was drafting very WR heavy. I do think following a strategy can cause you to not take BPA so part of my comments are just reflecting on that and wanting to draft more BPA than according to a strategy and that people are likely more interested in that than some of the moves that may take a lesser player to fill a starting requirement or other consideration.

Several people said BPA is the only way they know how to draft. So during every start up, there are likely at least a few drafters who are not focused on the scoring, starting requirements or long term value as others in every start up.

 

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29 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

So trying to a bit of speculating on running back values pre free agency and draft, I think we can all agree this looks like a good rb class coming in, who do we think is set to lose value as they will be replaced or demoted?? who are the guys to unload now? anyone have any that are not obvious?? recently I think back to someone like Tre Mason who seemed to be sitting in a good spot after a decent year and then to get replaced by Gurley. Some obvious ones this year appear to be Jonathan Stewart and Frank Gore based on early mocks. Who else?? Where are all the rookie rbs going to land?

Well of course if they are not obvious, we are merely guessing but here's a few that wouldn't shock me (but would likely shock their owners, like Tre Mason's owners were)

Jay Ajayi - he had some huge games, but the coaching staff never seemed to be in love with him. He's a hard runner, and showed big play capability, but isn't dynamic and allegedly has medical issues.

CJ Anderson/Devonte Booker - new coaching staff comes in

Rob Kelly/Matt Jones - very average talents

Latavius Murray - big and strong, but benefited from a great o-line

Jeremy Hill - writing may be on the wall based on some reports

 

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The talent of Cook and Fournette as well as some other RB in this draft class makes very few RB situations safe. Elliot and David Johnson should be and you would think Bell as well, but I wouldn't rule out the Steelers considering a RB if they do not plan to retain Bell for off the field reasons.

Peterson and Lacy may be leaving their teams and find a significant role with new teams as well.

The Rams and SD seem unlikely to use a high draft pick at the RB position because they have done so with Gurley and Gordon recently.

For the most part I would think a lot of teams may be in the market for a rookie RB though. The question is more which teams are more likely to draft a RB in the first 3 rounds, which should be RB who can challenge even very good incumbents. Which teams have the greatest need for a RB upgrade right now?

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IMO, these teams need RBs (of starting quality)

Jacksonville - Yeldon would be better off as a relief pitcher. Ivory had a miserable year.

NYJ - Forte is done

Carolina - Stewart is headed full speed toward the end of career wall & breaks down at the worst times

Cincinnati - Gio is coming off an ACL injury and is not a #1...the bloom is off the Hill rose

Indianapolis - Thank you Frank Gore...you've been amazing

Philly - The best thing for a young QB is a young RB

Baltimore - I know the FFB community is high on Dixon, but this team can do better

Tampa Bay - Doug Martin got paid and then quit. The rest are just guys

Green Bay - I think Lacy's gone and the Montgomery story is a short story, not a novel

 

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17 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

For the most part I would think a lot of teams may be in the market for a rookie RB though.

This is kind of true and even if teams hold until say the late 4th or 5th round those are often still RB's that can come in and foul up someone's situation in a hurry. It's really easier to list out the few RB's who are safe than those that could not suffer small to major value loss.

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Points well taken, so if some of us are selling rbs now in an effort to avoid the value hit that could be coming, what kind of 2017 rookie pick would it take for you to move some of the guys mentioned, i.e.

CJ Anderson

Booker

Dixon

Yeldon

McKinnon

 

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I think there are a good number of teams that could find themselves in the 2nd-5th rd looking at the talent still available at rb and take a stab because it's bpa. Mixon is a wildcard, could slip and still find a big role somewhere. If you're the lions in the 4th and mixon is sitting there I think you take him and thank Dwayne Washington for his efforts. Sure, you can say you'd take him off your list, but business is business and if you're job was on the line every year you probably get over his past transgression, do some big pr on how he's doing everything right, and take the value. Also, after these guys find landing spots, how many stud rbs will remain? Who can be the next freeman and come out yr 2 and tear it up despite a rookie on your heels? Booker? Dixon? 

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3 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

Points well taken, so if some of us are selling rbs now in an effort to avoid the value hit that could be coming, what kind of 2017 rookie pick would it take for you to move some of the guys mentioned, i.e.

CJ Anderson

Booker

Dixon

Yeldon

McKinnon

 

Assuming PPR?

1. Late 1st - I still believe

2. 2nd rounder - concerned, but still believe

2. 2nd rounder - not sold

3. 3rd - has use and did catch 50 passes this year

4. Anything I could get. I like his contribution to the Vikings, but not to FFB

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McKinnon probably has little to no value imo, he couldn't get the work this year, when will he. The others I think somewhere in the 2nd to buy or sell right now. Cj/booker likely are back for a year anyway. Dixon could be sunk with a pick, but will still have a role. Yeldon is likely a timeshare next year too, doubt they use an early pick. As a Dixon/booker owner in rebuild mode if I were offered an early 2 I'd consider it.

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7 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

McKinnon probably has little to no value imo, he couldn't get the work this year, when will he. The others I think somewhere in the 2nd to buy or sell right now. Cj/booker likely are back for a year anyway. Dixon could be sunk with a pick, but will still have a role. Yeldon is likely a timeshare next year too, doubt they use an early pick. As a Dixon/booker owner in rebuild mode if I were offered an early 2 I'd consider it.

McKinnon finished the year up strongly.

 

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

McKinnon finished the year up strongly.

 

I agree and he was also banged up a lot early in the season with back and hamstring issues I believe and I think considering how bad the OL was and fact no one could run well behind that OL are worth at least considering he's not as bad as his numbers look.

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There is always the possibility the Vikings keep Peterson. As a fan of the team I would prefer to just move on and save that money. I doubt they can trade him with his current salary and teams would need to be able to work out a new deal with him as part of the trade as well. It seems more likely teams play hard ball and just force the Vikings to cut him, rather than give up much in trade.

McKinnon ran better out of the wildcat than normal formations. That tells me he benefits from some misdirection and might be better with a QB who is more of a running threat than Sam Bradford. It is hard to judge because the offensive line did such a poor job run blocking all season. 

I could see the Vikings drafting a RB like Perine or others if they do get rid of Peterson and that player could form a tandem with McKinnon and be eventual replacement for Asiata.

I really like Ameer and Riddick but I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions drafted a RB.

While you likely never should be sure about a 5th round draft pick. I think Jordan Howards job is safe as long as Fox is the coach. So at least for 2017

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Well he was a converted college QB.

Right. He reads the field better out of that than he does on normal plays. I do think McKinnon is a good shotgun RB and better than Peterson out of that formation which the Vikings are using a lot more recently. So he will have a role with the offense. I just think he will share time with another RB and hopefully one better than Matt Asiata.

eta - getting back to the original question. If the Bears were to draft Fournette for example, that would surprise me quite a bit. It is not something that I expect to happen. I think it is more likely that the Dolphins might draft a RB high than the Bears. Personally I don't think either team should draft a RB because they have some proven players already at the beginning of their careers, but either could and that could cause a big value hit to either Howard or Ajayi.

Because of the way Gase handled things with Ajayi early on in the season is good reason to have some doubt about the coaches commitment to him as the starter. Reading into comments somewhat, he said he didn't care who the best players were while benching stars. Now maybe this was just to shake up the team and there was some method to this madness that seemed to end up working for them later on, but I think there is more to it than that and I am not as confident in the coaches opinion of Ajayi as their starter as I am of Fox's opinion about Howard.

Edited by Biabreakable

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29 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

Points well taken, so if some of us are selling rbs now in an effort to avoid the value hit that could be coming, what kind of 2017 rookie pick would it take for you to move some of the guys mentioned, i.e.

CJ Anderson

Booker

Dixon

Yeldon

McKinnon

 

 

 

On the Denver's. I could see Anderson gone. Guarantees and cap hits for cutting him are up and it's a new staff. He's due $3 million, not insurmountable but if new staff thinks he is more backup material than NFL starter I can see them moving on. I personally think he's more backup material than starter, for sure has never been able to carry large workload for entire season at any level.

Booker did not look good after Anderson went down but at times did look good last year. Also referencing CJ's contract versus his cheap deal and for better or worse I feel more confident of him being in RB mix for Denver than Anderson. I also remind myself of guys over past few seasons like Freeeman, Ajayi, and Mel Gordon who looked like totally different players in year two.

I like Dixon but those comments from Harbaugh at end of the season sure took a little confidence away but I think he's to good to not have a role. Now if someone wants to pay you like he's going to ascend to feature back role you take it, same for anyone on this list.

Yeldon. Interesting because a lot of people have Jags taking Fournette or Cook in mocks but Ivory's contract includes a $3 million guarantee next season. I thought Ivory was a bad signing but I don't think he looked bad last year so much as he just was always hurt.  So it could be kind of ironic in that when the Jags signed Ivory it put a huge damper on Yeldon's value but it might actually assist him in surviving an incoming RB this season. He's also awfully young and has shown he can work well in a tandem with another RB but but he's also banged up a lot.

For all these RB's I give them up for an early second. Would have to mull over individually if mid or late second gets it done, in some cases it would. Anything outside round 2 and I'm holding. One thing all these RB's share is functionality to different degrees in the passing game so that makes the evaluation of trade value a little harder for me. I move any of them if someone wants to pay like they might be a feature back but even if all of their teams invest in RB every one of them can still maintain value in PPR leagues but I do not see a scenario where Denver or Jacksonville invested in a RB and still kept Booker/CJ and Ivory/Yeldon so in those cases and addition would likely involve a subtraction.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Nobody is taking Ajayi's job anytime soon.  Gase has had nothing but praise for him since Ajayi rejoined the ream, and I'm not sure there's a back in the class who would put him on the bench.  The knee issue could always flare up, but it's his job until or unless it does.  

Edited by Concept Coop

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1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

Nobody is taking Ajayi's job anytime soon.  Gase has had nothing but praise for him since Ajayi rejoined the ream, and I'm not sure there's a back in the class who would put him on the bench.  

I guess I stopped paying attention to Gase once Jay took over. It was a bit of a roller coaster there early on so I am not sure that has been completely wiped away or not. I would like to believe that it has. I still have some doubts. Perhaps unfounded ones.

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Ajayi is a complete mystery to me on what the future holds.  Maybe more than anyone else.  Not a guy I am looking to buy.  However, if I owned him, I am not sure what it would take to pry him away from me. 

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37 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I guess I stopped paying attention to Gase once Jay took over. It was a bit of a roller coaster there early on so I am not sure that has been completely wiped away or not. I would like to believe that it has. I still have some doubts. Perhaps unfounded ones.

I think there's plenty of room to worry about maturity issues with Ajayi.  And because he's a RB he'll have a much shorter leash than, say, OBJ.  But they're not going to replace him to punish him for what happened earlier.  He's their guy until he messes up, his knee gives, or age slows him down.  I'd put his Tre Mason risk at 0.  

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3 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

With Abdullah & Riddick coming back from injury and Zenner stepping up I doubt DET takes a RB in the first 5 rounds. Too many other holes to plug.

You have a higher opinion of those three than do I.

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32 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Ajayi is a complete mystery to me on what the future holds.  Maybe more than anyone else.  Not a guy I am looking to buy.  However, if I owned him, I am not sure what it would take to pry him away from me. 

I think his knee makes him an enigma. The "bone one bone" talk was BS, but teams obviously saw something that worried them a good deal.  I don't blame anyone for not wanting to invest eggs in that basket because of that.  If it wasn't for his knee, however, he'd be my RB4.

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30 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Ajayi is a complete mystery to me on what the future holds. 

Ajayi and Jordan Howard both were major up and down mysteries to me last year. I know I like Howard more of the two but despite how productive both RB's were I don't have any confidence in either of them to pay what I assume is their going rate and would probably lean on moving both while value is high. Not saying I don't like them, just saying I just can't get confident enough in either of them to pay what I assume they cost.

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26 minutes ago, petekrum said:

You have a higher opinion of those three than do I.

I agree.  I'm sure they'd be somewhat comfortable going into the season with that group, but I highly doubt they'd pass up investing in the position because of it, should value dictate. 

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46 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Ajayi and Jordan Howard both were major up and down mysteries to me last year. I know I like Howard more of the two but despite how productive both RB's were I don't have any confidence in either of them to pay what I assume is their going rate and would probably lean on moving both while value is high. Not saying I don't like them, just saying I just can't get confident enough in either of them to pay what I assume they cost.

I think they are both prime examples of why you shouldnt build your teams and invest a lot of value into the RB position. 

Meaning, if you have these guys and can flip them for great value, DO IT

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4 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

McKinnon finished the year up strongly.

 

Guy averaged 3.4 a carry, had 2 tds, and lost touches to jag Asiata.  Not exactly a guy I want taking up a spot at this point. He had one good showing week 17. 

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

Guy averaged 3.4 a carry, had 2 tds, and lost touches to jag Asiata.  Not exactly a guy I want taking up a spot at this point. He had one good showing week 17. 

Double digit scoring from Week 12-17.

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7 hours ago, menobrown said:

 

 

On the Denver's. I could see Anderson gone. Guarantees and cap hits for cutting him are up and it's a new staff. He's due $3 million, not insurmountable but if new staff thinks he is more backup material than NFL starter I can see them moving on. I personally think he's more backup material than starter, for sure has never been able to carry large workload for entire season at any level.

Booker did not look good after Anderson went down but at times did look good last year. Also referencing CJ's contract versus his cheap deal and for better or worse I feel more confident of him being in RB mix for Denver than Anderson. I also remind myself of guys over past few seasons like Freeeman, Ajayi, and Mel Gordon who looked like totally different players in year two.

I like Dixon but those comments from Harbaugh at end of the season sure took a little confidence away but I think he's to good to not have a role. Now if someone wants to pay you like he's going to ascend to feature back role you take it, same for anyone on this list.

Yeldon. Interesting because a lot of people have Jags taking Fournette or Cook in mocks but Ivory's contract includes a $3 million guarantee next season. I thought Ivory was a bad signing but I don't think he looked bad last year so much as he just was always hurt.  So it could be kind of ironic in that when the Jags signed Ivory it put a huge damper on Yeldon's value but it might actually assist him in surviving an incoming RB this season. He's also awfully young and has shown he can work well in a tandem with another RB but but he's also banged up a lot.

For all these RB's I give them up for an early second. Would have to mull over individually if mid or late second gets it done, in some cases it would. Anything outside round 2 and I'm holding. One thing all these RB's share is functionality to different degrees in the passing game so that makes the evaluation of trade value a little harder for me. I move any of them if someone wants to pay like they might be a feature back but even if all of their teams invest in RB every one of them can still maintain value in PPR leagues but I do not see a scenario where Denver or Jacksonville invested in a RB and still kept Booker/CJ and Ivory/Yeldon so in those cases and addition would likely involve a subtraction.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seemed pretty obvious to me cj was best Denver back last year by a good margin 

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14 hours ago, petekrum said:

You have a higher opinion of those three than do I.

Not necessarily a high opinion of them but they are a serviceable combination for the offense. Riddick being out really hurt the Lions at the end of season. There are too many other areas that need more attention.

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10 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Double digit scoring from Week 12-17.

I guess I should be a little more open minded here. I liked him coming into the year, but the fact that min wouldn't lean on him (again, timeshare last time ap was hurt) concerned me. I figured ap would miss at least a couple games and thought McKinnon would be ready as a young vet to take over. Nothing worse than having a guy fall into the best case scenario and fail miserably. Maybe he was banged up, or blame the oline, or the offense as a whole and lack of goal line touches (which Asiata vultures anyway), all of which can't be solved in 1 offseason with no 1st. 

Now that I say that, no 1st and a lot of holes his competition could be a 5-7th rounder and/or ap. 

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Curious about the bid price for Gronk.  As a buyer, I'm looking for a bargain given the injury history.  However, if i were the seller, I'd hold for upside before selling him low.

What would people ask/pay?

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10 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Double digit scoring from Week 12-17.

I guess I should be a little more open minded here. I liked him coming into the year, but the fact that min wouldn't lean on him (again, timeshare last time ap was hurt) concerned me. I figured ap would miss at least a couple games and thought McKinnon would be ready as a young vet to take over. Nothing worse than having a guy fall into the best case scenario and fail miserably. Maybe he was banged up, or blame the oline, or the offense as a whole and lack of goal line touches (which Asiata vultures anyway), all of which can't be solved in 1 offseason with no 1st. 

Now that I say that, no 1st and a lot of holes his competition could be a 5-7th rounder and/or ap. 

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5 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Not necessarily a high opinion of them but they are a serviceable combination for the offense. Riddick being out really hurt the Lions at the end of season. There are too many other areas that need more attention.

What if Mixon were to fall into the fourth or fifth round,...?

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