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draftkings week 5 (1 Viewer)

J

jandyt

Footballguy
Been up and down this year so far winning week followed by a losing week.  On the good side the winning weeks have 50%+ ROI while the losing weeks have been -10-12%.  On the bad side last year I started with 8 winning weeks before having a few bad ones.  Regardless on to week 5.

QB:

Brady: fired up and facing the browns

Carr: at home against a week pass defense

Also Flacco or Dalton is your looking to save some dollars

RB:

D Johnson; My favorite high priced RB this week.

Howard another nice matchup for him

Mckinnion cheap and could see them jumping ahead in this game

Others:

Gordon, West, Gore

WR:

At the top I like a pissed off OBJ and A Brown

A level down I think Crabby is still too cheap, Edelman could do very well with Brady back, and S Smith is under priced.

Cheap don't feel great about anyone this week but Enuwa, Beasley, and Woods have upside.

TE

Miller, Ertz, and Randolph are my favorites

Olson if I have the money I think could be big this week

D

Have not really looked at pricing yet here but Vikes at home against the Texans maybe tough to pass up.

 
My first cash lineup:

Hoyer

Crowell, McKinnon (I don't see how you can't use these 2 in some fashion 4800 and 4k respectively.  Unless you believe the Pat's are going to go up real early on the Browns Crowell will get his, and McKinnon's floor seems to be making value at 4k so he's everywhere for me)

Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Steve Smith

Hunter Henry (agains the Raiders seems like a no brainer, they've been torched at TE lately.  He played 100 and 97% of the snaps with Gates out and has done pretty well)

Devontee Freeman at 5k seems cheap, that and Coleman has sickle cell so either he won't play or he's going to be very limited.  I want a piece of that offense at a cheap price so Freeman is my choice.

Minnesota - How do you not pick them in cash?

Money left over $1000 still, might go for a QB upgrade

 
Much tighter pricing this week than last. 

Agree with most of the names you guys have mentioned. With good cheap options so tough to come by, McKinnon might end up the chalkiest guy of the week by the time Sunday rolls around. Think you probably have to get him in there at that price. 

I haven't started building lineups yet, but just looking through pricing, TE-Flex seems to be very much in play. The value on guys like Rudolph, Ertz, Henry, Clay, Ebron, Tamme, etc. is pretty enticing compared to other positions. If you want to play Brown and a solid WR2, going this route opens things up quite a bit.

 
We saw Crowell in last week's winning line-up. What do you guys think about Duke Johnson this week? Throw him in a GPP or role with Crowell?

 
pbandy1 said:
We saw Crowell in last week's winning line-up. What do you guys think about Duke Johnson this week? Throw him in a GPP or role with Crowell?
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I think he's a viable pivot.  There is a chance Brady comes out firing on all cylinders, if that happens and they're down early, they might go with Duke.  There's worse dart throws on likely low ownership you could take IMO.  

Some guys I'm starting to throw in lineups include Dontrelle Inman, DGB both whose roles have grown and now after the bye, at least for DGB, could be a redzone guy for Wentz now.  It's possible.  I find it pretty easy to load up on top tier WR's and go cheap elsewhere.  You could pay for TE too or go cheap, but I wouldn't do it at RB at all this week.  

Weeks like this where I find myself loving my lineup and can't see a problem is when I put up 99 or less and lose all my money.  I'm concerned, but a confident concerned. 

 
Big Ben vs the Jets secondary that's been torched vs everyone and possibly down Revis. 

 
Last week was my first losing week, BR down 10%.

I'm rolling out 2 cash lineups this week.  One with Brady and Antonio Brown, the other with Big Ben and Edelman.  I prefer 1 cash lineup but this week I want a good piece of both offenses in case one of those 4 players has a monster game.

I have a fairly complex method for my cash entries because I don't like them being completely double-or-nothing.

 I've been spreading them out like this:

55% Heads Ups,  35% Double Ups, 10% Triple Ups

The HU are good for not having a total washout when I have an off week.  I post about half of them (limit to 1 opponent) and game select the other half.  I post my HUs as soon as my cash lineup is set - usually thurs or fri.  I select HU opponents on saturday night to hopefully scoop up some fish.

 
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Derek Anderson is looking like a clear cash option if Cam is out.  Will clearly have some exposure to him.  Like him as a super cheap option better than Hoyer.

My breakdown for cash games is:

35% X2, 20$ 50/50, 20% X3, 15% X5, and 10% H2H

This stays fairly stable but can change based on how I am doing at each type of game.  Last year my best ROI was X3 and X5 but there is the most risk there as well while my lowest ROI was H2H.  This year I have not done as well at X3 and X5 while holding about the same ROI at the other games.  If this trend continues I will adjust the way I play.  I typically have 4 cash line ups 2 for each major slate.  Also have run a 5th one out there recently for the sun-mon slate which covers a lot of NFL games but has much fewer contests offered on DK.  I don't play the smaller slates at all.  I am sometimes tempted to play the mon-thu slate but I have managed to be very disciplined about only playing major slates and playing 30% on my bankroll each week.

 
Zyphros said:
I think he's a viable pivot.  There is a chance Brady comes out firing on all cylinders, if that happens and they're down early, they might go with Duke.  There's worse dart throws on likely low ownership you could take IMO.  

Some guys I'm starting to throw in lineups include Dontrelle Inman, DGB both whose roles have grown and now after the bye, at least for DGB, could be a redzone guy for Wentz now.  It's possible.  I find it pretty easy to load up on top tier WR's and go cheap elsewhere.  You could pay for TE too or go cheap, but I wouldn't do it at RB at all this week.  

Weeks like this where I find myself loving my lineup and can't see a problem is when I put up 99 or less and lose all my money.  I'm concerned, but a confident concerned. 
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While I like Duke this week, I'm looking more and more at James White. Just read John Paulsen's (4for4) sneaky starts article and last year with Dion Lewis out, White was putting up RB1 numbers in PPR. With a team total as high as the Patriots this week, I think he could be a solid GPP option.

I like Inman, but I like Tyrell Williams more. OAK's Sean Smith has been almost as bad as BLT's Shareece Wright. Williams gets just as many targets as Travis Benjamin but is a bigger red-zone threat. He's also going to be under-owned this week. 

With DGB, he just doesn't get enough targets for me. The whole Eagles offense is weird... I don't want to say gimmicky but everyone is getting receptions there. Since DraftKings is PPR format I''ll take someone getting more receptions.

Two tight ends I'm looking at this week... Virgil Green and Richard Rodgers. Both are playing at home with a moderate to high team total. I'd normally go with Green here but he's coming off the calf injury and who knows how he'll be used or if he will aggravate that. So I'll throw Rodgers in a few line-ups.

 
I'm willing to bet Tyrell Williams is more highly owned than Inman.  Inman also had 11 targets last week and he's basically just as much a sparq freak as Williams is.  They could both have good games, I'm just going with the guy that I think will be lower on the owned %'s.

DGB doesn't get a lot of targets for sure, and I agree with almost everything you said, the offense is weird, and it's more spread the ball around and true about PPR as well, BUT a RZ threat whose seen his role grow over the weeks coming off a bye for a team that traded for him?  Call me optimistic but I think he could be the make/break type of guy on a roster for daily.  

 
Alright guys I need help. I am very new to DFS and I am trying to learn the ropes. I have had fairly good luck with year-long fantasy and currently I am 4-0 in both of my higher stakes season long leagues (this year thanks is owed to this site). However, in DFS I am only winning 10-15% of my cash games and have only finished in the money in 1 or 2 GPP at the lowest payout.  My problem seems that the guys I pick that have solid performances are almost owned by everyone else. The guys that are supposed values have not lived up to expectation. I am trying to utilize the the interactive value tool and try to use the advice posted here, but I am still stinking it up when the results are final on Sunday or Monday night. Any advice?

 
I have been playing 2-3 $5 heads ups, a $10 50/50 and usually either a $5 or $10 double up. and they I usually play a $2, 3, and $5 GPP to play somewhere between $30-50/week. Not looking to win a million, just looking to get better and maybe make a few dollars along the way. 

Here was the line-up I was thinking about in cash games

QB: Brady

RB: Jordan Howard, Jerick McKinnon

WRs: Crabtree, Marshall, Smith Sr.

TE: Rudolph

Flex: LeVeon

Def: Dolphins

 
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If your playing less than $50 a week I would stick to all $1 contests.  Cut lines typically are a bit lower and by spreading the money over more contests you lessen the chances of getting clobbered if your lineup is at least decent.  With $50 in play it should be no problem finding enough $1 contests.  Also with more contests you could go with 2 cash line ups instead of 1 which would lessen the odds on getting clobbered. 

As for your lineup all those players are on my short list of players to use in cash games so I don't see a problem with that lineup. 

 
I have always throw at least a few darts at GPP.  Currently 5-10% of my play is GPP even though it has proven over time to be the contests I am worst at. 

 
BreadPuddin said:
Sounds good. Any reason to play any GPPs? Or stay mainly cash with a lower budget?
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For fun!

  I know they won't hit nearly as often, but I get more of a charge out of trying to figure out the gpps than rearranging the chalk players for the cash games.  if you are doing $30-50 a week, no reason not to throw 3 or 4 entries into gpp at a minimum.  Especially on DK - you can do the $.25 contest for even more lineups to see how you are at picking tourney lineups as you start out. 

 
High winds for the Baltimore/Washington game have me backing off the pieces of the Baltimore passing game I was looking at.  Especially Falco, Smith I may still have a piece of.

 
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jandyt said:
High winds for the Baltimore/Washington game have me backing off the pieces of the Baltimore passing game I was looking at.  Especially Falco, Smith I may still have a piece of.
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Was thinking of taking Smith out of my cash lineups but 15-25mph is not that bad.

If wind does end up being a big factor, a West/Ravens D could be a nice stack.

 
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Well my Rb's basically sucked.  Lots of McKinnon and Crowell, not enough of Freeman and Howard. 

 
jandyt said:
If your playing less than $50 a week I would stick to all $1 contests.  Cut lines typically are a bit lower and by spreading the money over more contests you lessen the chances of getting clobbered if your lineup is at least decent.  With $50 in play it should be no problem finding enough $1 contests.  Also with more contests you could go with 2 cash line ups instead of 1 which would lessen the odds on getting clobbered. 

As for your lineup all those players are on my short list of players to use in cash games so I don't see a problem with that lineup. 
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My above contest against Assani was a $1 H2H

So, yeah, if Assani (#8 ranked DFS player) is playing some $1 entries then we all should be too.

 
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