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rockaction

Venezuela Thread

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5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

How do you stop that?  

Things are coming to a head - Maduro is seeking to rewrite the constitution to take away rights of non-socialists and the people are in the streets. Civil war is a serious possibility right now.//

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

How do you stop that?  

Tanks help. Cutting electricity and internet could help. Insuring that the top and even mid level commanders in the armed forces are well paid in hard currency earned by drug smuggling also helps.

But I hope all those things fail. I will say however, that I don't think the nebulous opposition has a solid plan in place if/when they do seize power.  All I hear is "Maduro fuera!" and "no más". I hope they have plans to first secure the country against bloodshed, and second to progress economically.

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On 4/8/2017 at 10:01 PM, The Z Machine said:

Supreme court building set afire too.

Btw, this isn't due to "socialism", but kleptocracy + incompetence + corruption, with a side order of cult of personality.

So it is Socialism. 

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51 minutes ago, Christo said:

Hot :wub:

I always figured you as more of a Bulls fan.  

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On 4/10/2017 at 9:40 PM, Higgs said:

Socialism is such a crock of ####.  Thank God Bernie didn't get elected.  He would've ####ed up this economy for a generation. 

Good thing we elected a populist who actually tried to court Bernie supporters. Never really heard a Trump supporter defend that. Fortunately, Cohn and Mnuchin are steering the economic boat. 

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Be interested to hear takes from people really following the issue. With all the other domestic stuff going on, this hit the back burner for me.

Keep us posted, fellas!

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12 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Be interested to hear takes from people really following the issue. With all the other domestic stuff going on, this hit the back burner for me.

Keep us posted, fellas!

You were way ahead of it, Rock, great OP.

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4 hours ago, rockaction said:

Be interested to hear takes from people really following the issue. With all the other domestic stuff going on, this hit the back burner for me.

Keep us posted, fellas!

It was relatively quiet today in Maracaibo (where my wife is from, second largest city in the country, and basically across the country from Caracas). They are bracing for a bad week though.  Its likely that members of my family will be marching although none are the type to throw rocks or get close to the front lines. 

They aren't starving or in the street as they are kept in hard currency by the family abroad (and have savings). Some of the family that can leave are still there, mostly due to having to take care of older family members.  They seem to want to stick it out there instead of starting over someplace else or living with family abroad. 

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21 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Why are Bolivian soldiers in Venezuela?

Bolivarian, as in Simon Bolivar 

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According to the Govt, turnout was 41.5%

Opposition groups put it at 12%. No idea how they'd know but that's a pretty big difference

Oh, and as of now, the US, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Mexico are all publicly refusing to recognize the vote as legitimate

Edited by prefontaine

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US hits Venezuela with sanctions following 'sham' election

Headline doesn't quite match story as it appears to be on Maduro (and his allies) himself with potential further actions to come

Quote

The sanctions unveiled on Monday freeze any of Maduro’s assets under US jurisdiction, and prohibit US citizens from doing business with the beleaguered president.

Acording to Reuters, the US is also considering further sanctions against Venezuela’s oil industry, which could prove devastating for a country which is already in a state of economic free fall.

I also like that the Guardian story misspelled "According"

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18 minutes ago, prefontaine said:

US hits Venezuela with sanctions following 'sham' election

Headline doesn't quite match story as it appears to be on Maduro (and his allies) himself with potential further actions to come

I also like that the Guardian story misspelled "According"

Many of the "Russian sanctions" following annexation of the Crimea were/are directed at Russian individuals.

Par for the course, that's always where you start

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Russia is the only major country thus far to recognize the vote from Sunday. I think most Latin American countries have called it a sham. Maybe Cuba and Ecuador have recognized it,  but that's it I bet. 

News from my family is that contingency plans are being put into place to get people out if the ish hits the fan.  My wife is worried that het homeland will turn into Cuban level repression and state control and that she won't return for 20 years.  Talk about sad. 

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1 hour ago, The Z Machine said:

Russia is the only major country thus far to recognize the vote from Sunday. I think most Latin American countries have called it a sham. Maybe Cuba and Ecuador have recognized it,  but that's it I bet. 

News from my family is that contingency plans are being put into place to get people out if the ish hits the fan.  My wife is worried that het homeland will turn into Cuban level repression and state control and that she won't return for 20 years.  Talk about sad. 

This is crazy horrible, I'm really sorry, Z. 

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1 hour ago, The Z Machine said:

Russia is the only major country thus far to recognize the vote from Sunday. I think most Latin American countries have called it a sham. Maybe Cuba and Ecuador have recognized it,  but that's it I bet. 

News from my family is that contingency plans are being put into place to get people out if the ish hits the fan.  My wife is worried that het homeland will turn into Cuban level repression and state control and that she won't return for 20 years.  Talk about sad. 

Maduro is no Castro, I doubt if it lasts for 20 years. Plus, there is so much evidence now that the route taken by Peru, Chile and Colombia is better than the Cuban socialist / dictatorial experiment. 

Upper class Venezuelans have been moving to and buying property in South Florida for 20+ years, as a safe haven, and in some cases to clean money. After Chavez gained power in 1999, many young middle class professionals and entrepreneurs left Venezuela for the USA, primarily Florida, and Spain - they saw the writing on the wall and didn't want to start a family under a Castro-style system. More recently, I've seen recent arrivals from Venezuela who have come without money or professional skills. They work as driving instructors, uber drivers, office cleaners, selling arepas and tequenos. They say all their friends want to leave. Like most immigrants, they're not complacent.  They do have a support system in south Florida. Over 10% of the Venezuelans in the USA live in Doral and Weston.    

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On 12/13/2016 at 11:43 AM, rockaction said:

Thank you, socialism! 

Bravo, Oliver Stone and Sean Penn and Hollywood. 

Thanks.  

That's a pretty simplistic view of  what has been multiple decades of trouble for the country. They have had military coups, assassinations, riots, etc. Much of the socialist leanings of the country were a direct response to the foreign oil companies that came in and made fortunes from the Venezuelan oil while paying the Venezuelans very little. 

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The company that makes the voting machines in Venezuela says without a doubt the vote was tampered with.

Quote

 

Antonio Mugica told reporters in London on Wednesday that there was a discrepancy of 1 million votes between the turnout figures announced by the government and those recorded by his systems.

Mugica said “it is therefore with the deepest regret that we have to report that the turnout figures on Sunday, 30 July, for the Constituent Assembly in Venezuela were tampered with.”

Smartmatic was a company created by Venezuelans that provided electronic voting machines used during the administration of the late President Hugo Chavez.

 

 

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Yup.  Opposition leaders are being taken away.  Not a good sign. My family down there has been eerily quiet these last free days on whatsapp.  Perhaps they are using more secure communication protocols or not putting things on the internet out of fear.  Ungood across the board. 

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On 8/1/2017 at 5:31 AM, Ilov80s said:

That's a pretty simplistic view of  what has been multiple decades of trouble for the country. They have had military coups, assassinations, riots, etc. Much of the socialist leanings of the country were a direct response to the foreign oil companies that came in and made fortunes from the Venezuelan oil while paying the Venezuelans very little. 

Funny, this hardly conservative Brookings scholar thinks this "simplistic view" is accurate.

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-kirchick-venezuela-pundits-20170802-story.html

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1 hour ago, The Z Machine said:

Yup.  Opposition leaders are being taken away.  Not a good sign. My family down there has been eerily quiet these last free days on whatsapp.  Perhaps they are using more secure communication protocols or not putting things on the internet out of fear.  Ungood across the board. 

TPW for your family.

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On 8/1/2017 at 5:31 AM, Ilov80s said:

That's a pretty simplistic view of  what has been multiple decades of trouble for the country. They have had military coups, assassinations, riots, etc. Much of the socialist leanings of the country were a direct response to the foreign oil companies that came in and made fortunes from the Venezuelan oil while paying the Venezuelans very little. 

Venezuela has been dysfunctional for a long time, that's true.

But the Chavezista "miracle" turning the country into a truly failed state isn't a coincidence either.

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On 8/1/2017 at 5:31 AM, Ilov80s said:

That's a pretty simplistic view of  what has been multiple decades of trouble for the country. They have had military coups, assassinations, riots, etc. Much of the socialist leanings of the country were a direct response to the foreign oil companies that came in and made fortunes from the Venezuelan oil while paying the Venezuelans very little. 

Chavez destroyed every industry but oil and built an unsustainable economic system on its back.  He was a catastrophe.

Greed is greed.  It will always exist and it will always be the driving factor in human decision making.  The system of socialism Chavez installed simply doesn't work.  The greed doesn't go away, it feeds off an inefficient system behind the walls of government.

Capitalism without regulation doesn't work either obviously.  There has to be a balance.  

Its a good reminder as to why our government was set up the way it was.  Diversified power and political churn has its issues, but It does an excellent job of curbing the impact of charismatic populist leaders that could single-handedly annhilate a country.

Since I'm rambling a bit anyway, I'm curious to see how China can adapt communism to be successful.  I suspect they too will have to strike a much more equal balance with capitalism to continue one-party rule.  

The long-term vision of one-party rule with a capitalist driven economy could probably work well, at least in a fish bowl.  I'm not an expert on these matters though.

edit:  I wish your in-laws well "Z".  Dealing with the immediate day-to-day miseries along with the long-term tragedy of your country be ripped apart must be overwhelming.

Edited by jonessed
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Some countries have been more socialistic than others, with varying levels of success, and it works so long as capitalism remains at the root of its economic system. But socialism as a system without capitalistic roots, especially when it is the result of revolutionary change, always eventually devolves into some sort of authoritarian dictatorship. 

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3 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Some countries have been more socialistic than others, with varying levels of success, and it works so long as capitalism remains at the root of its economic system. But socialism as a system without capitalistic roots, especially when it is the result of revolutionary change, always eventually devolves into some sort of authoritarian dictatorship. 

This is tragically sad - they're going the way of Cuba, and oh btw Cuba is backing a lot of this. It's happening again, it's awful.

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2 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

This is tragically sad - they're going the way of Cuba, and oh btw Cuba is backing a lot of this. It's happening again, it's awful.

Yes. But the good news, if there's any, it that it may be much more short-lived than Cuba. Cuba was financially supported by Russia for decades for Cold War reasons;  that allowed Castro to stabilize his dictatorship. Meanwhile the Sandinistas were only supported for a short period of time and their socialistic regime fell apart. So I would say that's the better model. I hope. 

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2 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Yes. But the good news, if there's any, it that it may be much more short-lived than Cuba. Cuba was financially supported by Russia for decades for Cold War reasons;  that allowed Castro to stabilize his dictatorship. Meanwhile the Sandinistas were only supported for a short period of time and their socialistic regime fell apart. So I would say that's the better model. I hope. 

I'm not sure where you see encouragement, Cuba, Russia & China are happy to prop them up. India is happy to refine their oil. Their labor and goods will become near-slave, rock bottom cost on the world market. Maduro & Pals will steal all and the people will have nothing.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006

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1 minute ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I'm not sure where you see encouragement, Cuba, Russia & China are happy to prop them up. India is happy to refine their oil. Their labor and goods will become near-slave, rock bottom cost on the world market. Maduro & Pals will steal all and the people will have nothing.

You're depressing me. Stop it. 

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2 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I'm not sure where you see encouragement, Cuba, Russia & China are happy to prop them up. India is happy to refine their oil. Their labor and goods will become near-slave, rock bottom cost on the world market. Maduro & Pals will steal all and the people will have nothing.

It's going to fall to military leaders.  If Maduro controls the generals and the generals can keep their officers in line I don't see a path to reform.

These are the dangers of unfettered populism.  Chavez gutted the system.  There's nothing to fall back on.

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46 minutes ago, jonessed said:

Chavez destroyed every industry but oil and built an unsustainable economic system on its back.  

All the seeds of Venezuela'a economic demise were planted long before Chavez. He made a mess of trying to fix the problems and made them worse, but they weren't new problems. Also while the country was growing rapidly in the 50s, it was controlled by a military dictator. The problems of the country extend far beyond Chavez. 

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4 hours ago, rockaction said:

Funny, this hardly conservative Brookings scholar thinks this "simplistic view" is accurate.

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-kirchick-venezuela-pundits-20170802-story.html

What of all the coups prior? The military dictator, the banana republic? All meaningless? The economic collapse happening before Chavez? Chavez was awful and harmed the country, but the country was in deep trouble anyway. They had already moved to nationalization of oil long before Chavez and their economy was done for. Now Maduro is an even worse problem than Chavez. 

Also the guy you linked to is a neoconservative. 

Edited by Ilov80s

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

All the seeds of Venezuela'a economic demise were planted long before Chavez. He made a mess of trying to fix the problems and made them worse, but they weren't new problems. Also while the country was growing rapidly in the 50s, it was controlled by a military dictator. The problems of the country extend far beyond Chavez. 

Well those are seeds, not the tree. Castro is not Batista and vice versa. Things are worse and getting worse by magnitudes.

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14 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Well those are seeds, not the tree. Castro is not Batista and vice versa. Things are worse and getting worse by magnitudes.

Right but perhaps people like Castro never come to power if it was not for the dictator and criminal Batista running amok of democracy and the rights of the Cubans, selling anything he could to America for a profit at the expense of the Cuban people. He was no better than Castro.The far right, far left, extreme socialism and extreme capitalism are all bad imo and certain to bring ruin to the average person.

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

Right but perhaps people like Castro never come to power if it was not for the dictator and criminal Batista running amok of democracy and the rights of the Cubans, selling anything he could to America for a profit at the expense of the Cuban people. He was no better than Castro.The far right, far left, Socialism and Fascism are all bad imo and certain to bring ruin to the average person.

FIFY

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